Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[PSIGuy]

Sakurai is gonna come on stage tomorrow and show off a cool KOS-MOS figure he recently bought. That’s it, no announcement.

Not even a figure, he'll bring his Switch out, turn on a game, reveal it to be XB2 and says he has a big announcement... he finally rolled Kosmos off a core-crystal and he's really happy about it.

 

[Gentlepanda]

"vergeben, what does your source say about yodasumi"
"i have no idea who that is but he says he doesn't know"
"ladies and gentlemen there you have it"

 

[MissingGlitch]

Sources are being quiet because FP5's code-name is "COSMO" and they can't discount KOS-MOS based on that.

It's actually Nebby.



He'll take a page from Yoshida's playbook and come out in cosplay.

"Is this what you all wanted?"

COSMO BROS RISE UP!

 

[Jibblypuff_]

Sources are being quiet because FP5's code-name is "COSMO" and they can't discount KOS-MOS based on that.

Spoiler

 

[GoodGrief741]

The main reason why I've never given any credence to the "If the character's not hype at TGAs, it's a failure!"


Is because the Pass is over a year old now. If you wanted the pass, you bought it, and if you held off, you're probably in a 1% minority of people who haven't.


Nintendo considered the Fighter's Pass a "Huge financial success", meaning that I'd wager a ton of people bought it already. If they revealed someone 'unhype', then... does that matter? You already have the pass.

To play Devil's Advocate, out of all the people who bought Smash, there's bound to be a large percentage of people who didn't buy it and are thus part of the target audience who could still be convinced to buy it.

 

[Deleted member]

Sources are being quiet because FP5's code-name is "COSMO" and they can't discount KOS-MOS based on that.

It's actually Nebby.

Not the Marvel character we wanted but it is the one we deserve

 

[Iko MattOrr]

What if Fighter 5 is Crash, but shortly after they release it, they fix it with a system stability update?

 

[Shroob]

To play Devil's Advocate, out of all the people who bought Smash, there's bound to be a large percentage of people who didn't buy it and are thus part of the target audience who could still be convinced to buy it.

I highly doubt it's large enough to matter in the long run.


Nintendo already considered it a success financially and probably greenlit a 2nd one.


The main sales of anything come within the first few months. Sure, when new things get announced, there'll be a blip in sales, but it's just that, a blip. They got their gross sum of cash already.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Not the Marvel character we wanted but it is the one we deserve

And thus we find out that Guardians of the Galaxy and Smash Bros. take place in the same universe. Studies find it not surprising in hindsight.

 

[TwiceEXE]

To play Devil's Advocate, out of all the people who bought Smash, there's bound to be a large percentage of people who didn't buy it and are thus part of the target audience who could still be convinced to buy it.

This argument is silly. They decided on the five characters over a year ago. If they reveal it at TGA it's going to be MORE HYPE no matter who it is. It's not like if they save a literal who for a Direct that suddenly means increased sales.

 

[Arcadenik]

How would the general audience feel if they were to announce a Spirit/Assist Trophy fighters pass? Happy? Pissed? Both? Etc

Depends on who got upgraded. Personally I’d pick the following:

Moveset + Costume upgrades: Toad

Pokeball + Costume upgrades: Team Rocket (Pokémon Trainer) with Meowth (playable Pokémon)

Spirit + Costume upgrades: Dixie Kong

Assist + Costume upgrades: Isaac

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Sakurai tomorrow comes on stage and says because people kept on trying to leak out FP5 further DLC including FP5 has been cancelled and that he's decided to retire early. ;P

 

[Deleted member]

Tomorrow Sakurai will come to stage and announce he is quitting Smash Ultimate after Fighter 5 to work on Despacito 2 and Space Jam 2.

Then he shows the trailer of Fighter 5: Michael Jordan.

 

[TwiceEXE]

Sabi is noncommittal, but it does not sound like they think it's KOS-MOS.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[GoodGrief741]

I highly doubt it's large enough to matter in the long run.


Nintendo already considered it a success financially and probably greenlit a 2nd one.


The main sales of anything come within the first few months. Sure, when new things get announced, there'll be a blip in sales, but it's just that, a blip. They got their gross sum of cash already.

You're talking about decisions that were made simultaneously a while ago. I doubt they decided that they were going to sell all the Fighter Pass by Fighter 4 and therefore Fighter 5 can be whoever. If they chose Fighters 1 through 4 in a way that they would sell, then they probably also chose a Fighter 5 that they could sell. It doesn't have to be a mainstream pick, as we've seen their strategy was to spread out characters that appeal to different demographics, but neither would they have taken a loss just because they presumed the rest would sell well. Companies try to maximize profits.

Plus remember, the option is there to buy DLC individually, and we don't know how much of the sales are for the entire Pass versus the individual characters.

This argument is silly. They decided on the five characters over a year ago. If they reveal it at TGA it's going to be MORE HYPE no matter who it is. It's not like if they save a literal who for a Direct that suddenly means increased sales.

That has nothing to do with what I'm saying? I'm just saying that it isn't logical to assume that because Smash DLC already sold a lot, the last character doesn't have to make business sense.

 

[Shroob]

If it IS KOS-MOS

I'm going all in on a repeat of E3.



I'm not saying she's not hype worthy, but Sakurai's not an idiot. He knew that Hero would only really appeal to one half of the world while Banjo the other(generally speaking), so them being shown together was a win/win for all parties involved.


We know that production on FP2-1 started probably before the September announcement because, duh, and I highly, HIGHLY doubt they'd be only working on FP5 this whole time.


If it IS KOS-MOS, we're getting both her an an announcement of the 2nd Pass. It would make sense since Joker started the pass last time, in multiple meanings of the phrase, so this time KOS-MOS would 'end' it, while someone else would begin it anew.


That's my best guess.

 

[Izanagi97]

So I'm just gonna guess VR Plant is gonna remain silent (unless they got snuffed out)

 

[Icedragonadam]

2B would be a "history repeats" ending to FP5. Smash 4 ended with Bayonetta, a female fighter who's game was developed by Platinum. Same with 2B.

 

[TwiceEXE]

That has nothing to do with what I'm saying? I'm just saying that it isn't logical to assume that because Smash DLC already sold a lot, the last character doesn't have to make business sense.

And revealing a character at TGA makes more sense than revealing it in a Direct. Your "devil's advocate" response was to a post saying that something being too niche for TGA makes no sense.

 

[KillerCage]

View attachment 252276
He's actually FP6, pic related is from his reveal trailer.

GET THAT $#@% OUT OF HERE!

 

[Shroob]

You're talking about decisions that were made simultaneously a while ago. I doubt they decided that they were going to sell all the Fighter Pass by Fighter 4 and therefore Fighter 5 can be whoever. If they chose Fighters 1 through 4 in a way that they would sell, then they probably also chose a Fighter 5 that they could sell. It doesn't have to be a mainstream pick, as we've seen their strategy was to spread out characters that appeal to different demographics, but neither would they have taken a loss just because they presumed the rest would sell well. Companies try to maximize profits.

Plus remember, the option is there to buy DLC individually, and we don't know how much of the sales are for the entire Pass versus the individual characters.

That has nothing to do with what I'm saying? I'm just saying that it isn't logical to assume that because Smash DLC already sold a lot, the last character doesn't have to make business sense.

If you didn't buy the pass the day of, that's all on you.

The silent majority of players did, as they do everything. The fact that we got placeholder spots as early as February, while not outright saying it, to me, tells me that it was a huge success very early on, and that's not even hard to guess. The pass went live literally the day of, of course people who just got the game were going to slap down 25$ bucks for more characters and stages.


We online may give a huge **** about who gets in, but Ultimate's sold what, over 18 million copies? Most of those people don't and just want "More content".

 

[Lamperouge]

Sabi is noncommittal, but it does not sound like they think it's KOS-MOS.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Well, the ride was fun while it lasted.

 

[Spongeboob]

Dunno if this was posted here but here's a fun little challenge

Alright. You’ve been asked to create a new fighter’s pass, but each slot must fill out their respective demands. Who are your picks? pic.twitter.com/oqnoCgRW6U

— Breadbug (@MonsieurTRLBits) December 11, 2019

My picks are
1: Miriam Bloodstained
2: Arle Nadja
3: Master Chief
4: Terra Branford
5: snom

1. Dante
2. Sol Badguy/(insert Sony character here)
3. Waluigi/Inteleon
4. Arle Nadja/Porky Minch
5. Heavy D!

I'm waiting for someone to make a "Goodnight" comment, so I can post this:

Okay goodnight.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Sabi is noncommittal, but it does not sound like they think it's KOS-MOS.

Master Chief time baby.

 

[Deleted member]

Sabi is noncommittal, but it does not sound like they think it's KOS-MOS.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Sounds like they just do not know. Wonder what Verge thinks

 

[GoodGrief741]

If it IS KOS-MOS

I'm going all in on a repeat of E3.



I'm not saying she's not hype worthy, but Sakurai's not an idiot. He knew that Hero would only really appeal to one half of the world while Banjo the other(generally speaking), so them being shown together was a win/win for all parties involved.


We know that production on FP2-1 started probably before the September announcement because, duh, and I highly, HIGHLY doubt they'd be only working on FP5 this whole time.


If it IS KOS-MOS, we're getting both her an an announcement of the 2nd Pass. It would make sense since Joker started the pass last time, in multiple meanings of the phrase, so this time KOS-MOS would 'end' it, while someone else would begin it anew.


That's my best guess.

Is KOS-MOS more popular in Japan than in the West? From what I know, her games sold pretty poorly on both sides of the globe.

Plus, while it would certainly be awesome to us, TGA appeals to much more people and I don't know if they'd want to do two Smash reveals. It's possible, but Nintendo has other things to show, the show has many more reveals, time is limited, so I dunno.

And revealing a character at TGA makes more sense than revealing it in a Direct. Your "devil's advocate" response was to a post saying that something being too niche for TGA makes no sense.

I was just responding to the argument that Fighter 5 can be as niche as they want because the Pass already sold.

If you didn't buy the pass the day of, that's all on you.

The silent majority of players did, as they do everything. The fact that we got placeholder spots as early as February, while not outright saying it, to me, tells me that it was a huge success very early on, and that's not even hard to guess. The pass went live literally the day of, of course people who just got the game were going to slap down 25$ bucks for more characters and stages.


We online may give a huge **** about who gets in, but Ultimate's sold what, over 18 million copies? Most of those people don't and just want "More content".

Source?

 

[Shroob]

Is KOS-MOS more popular in Japan than in the West? From what I know, her games sold pretty poorly on both sides of the globe.

Plus, while it would certainly be awesome to us, TGA appeals to much more people and I don't know if they'd want to do two Smash reveals. It's possible, but Nintendo has other things to show, the show has many more reveals, time is limited, so I dunno.


I was just responding to the argument that Fighter 5 can be as niche as they want because the Pass already sold.


Source?

Do you honestly believe every person who bought Ultimate and the Fighter's Pass uses social media in some form?


Look at what happened with Sword/Shield. The internet was irate about Dexit and all the bad things and how the game wouldn't sell, boom, fastest selling Switch title, ever.


The silent majority, the casuals, rule the market, us online are the minority.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Is KOS-MOS more popular in Japan than in the West? From what I know, her games sold pretty poorly on both sides of the globe.

Plus, while it would certainly be awesome to us, TGA appeals to much more people and I don't know if they'd want to do two Smash reveals. It's possible, but Nintendo has other things to show, the show has many more reveals, time is limited, so I dunno.


I was just responding to the argument that Fighter 5 can be as niche as they want because the Pass already sold.


Source?

Oh yeah, KOS-MOS is a HUGE deal in Japan. She’s got like tons of merch of her, and several other crossover games she’s in that never made it outside Japan (like the Super Robot Wars games)

 

[KillerCage]

Sabi is noncommittal, but it does not sound like they think it's KOS-MOS.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

This adds further doubt in the idea of KOS-MOS being FP5.
I mean wouldn't she get in trouble with CERO?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Do you honestly believe every person who bought Ultimate and the Fighter's Pass uses social media in some form?


Look at what happened with Sword/Shield. The internet was irate about Dexit and all the bad sales and how the game wouldn't sell, boom, fastest selling Switch title, ever.


The silent majority, the casuals, rule the market, us online are the minority.

And I'm supposed to believe blindly that the silent majority, the casuals, sprung $85 on a game day one? That's not how it works. Buying a season pass, content sight unseen, is not a thing casuals do, it's what hardcore fans do. Maybe the Fighter Pass broke out and sold 11 million copies day one, but that's a tall order, and asking me to believe you with no source is one as well.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Oh yeah, KOS-MOS is a HUGE deal in Japan. She’s got like tons of merch of her, and several other crossover games she’s in that never made it outside Japan (like the Super Robot Wars games)

And from what I've heard isn't she THE robot girl?

 

[Deleted member]

I mean wouldn't she get in trouble with CERO?

They can literally just cover her up bro.

 

[Shroob]

And I'm supposed to believe blindly that the silent majority, the casuals, sprung $85 on a game day one? That's not how it works. Buying a season pass, content sight unseen, is not a thing casuals do, it's what hardcore fans do. Maybe the Fighter Pass broke out and sold 11 million copies day one, but that's a tall order, and asking me to believe you with no source is one as well.

Yes, that's how it is.


You're assuming that everyone who plays Smash gives a damn about the roster when they just realize "OH, SMASH! NEW SMASH!"


The hardcore fans care about the roster, and we're a minority. It goes both ways, and Nintendo themselves consider the pass a "Huge financial success" to the point that they've greenlit another one.


If there were millions of people holding out, then I haven't seen them.

 

[Droodle]

He's in.

 

[Deleted member]

Sabi is noncommittal, but it does not sound like they think it's KOS-MOS.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

So we're still in confusion...

 

[KillerCage]

They can literally just cover her up bro.

View attachment 252287

This design? This would work.
Her OG design? I don't think that would fly.
Sakurai could Mai's less suggestive dresses, but he didn't.
I think he would have used KOS-MOS' original design if she was in.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Yes, that's how it is.


You're assuming that everyone who plays Smash gives a damn about the roster when they just realize "OH, SMASH! NEW SMASH!"


The hardcore fans care about the roster, and we're a minority. It goes both ways, and Nintendo themselves consider the pass a "Huge financial success" to the point that they've greenlit another one.


If there were millions of people holding out, then I haven't seen them.

You're assuming that everyone who plays Smash gives a damn about springing $25 for 5 unknown characters when they already have like 80.

Just like you said, the hardcore fans care about the roster. The rest just buy the game, play it, and move on. They aren't waiting for extra content to release. Games as a service don't depend on the silent majority buying everything they put out, they depend on a minority of whales buying everything they put out.

If Smash Ultimate had such a high attachment rate for DLC, you would have heard about it.

 

[Deleted member]

Master Chief time baby.

Don't count your chickens until they hatch.

and you dk know we still have to get a female fighter...

 

[BlackInk]

Sources are being quiet because FP5's code-name is "COSMO" and they can't discount KOS-MOS based on that.

It's actually Nebby.



He'll take a page from Yoshida's playbook and come out in cosplay.

"Is this what you all wanted?"

Cosmo? That’s too damn obvious. That can’t possibly be her code name.

 

[Deleted member]

This design? This would work.
Her OG design? I don't think that would fly.
Sakurai could Mai's less suggestive dresses, but he didn't.
I think he would have use KOS-MOS' original design if she was in.

At most they'll just give her leggings and not used that awful one where she just exposes her entire chest.