Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Deleted member]

More like:

I'm more partial to

 

[Cosmic77]

I'm not holding my breath for a second-party.

I still say first/second-parties are very much eligible for post pass, but we'll see. We have absolutely nothing to go off of aside from our opinions for now.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm more partial to

Yeah, that is way better.

 

[Jomosensual]

So what's the grand list of disconfirmations besides the ones listed in Verge's big post?

I remember Gordon Freeman and Scorpion but who are the others?

Copied and pasted from a discord I'm in

•Crash Bandicoot
•Ryu Hayabusa from Ninja Gaiden
•Doom Guy from DOOM
•Geno from SMRPG
•Tracer from Overwatch
•Scorpion from Mortal Kombat
•Dante from Devil May Cry
•All Resident Evil characters
•All Tales of characters
•All Falcom characters
•All Nippon Ichi characters
•All Capcom characters
•All Namco characters •
Sora from Kingdom Hearts
•Capcom characters
•Sega characters
•Konami characters
•Arc System Works characters
•Spike Chunsoft characters
•Marvelous characters
•Epic Games characters
•ZUN / Team Shanghai Alice's Touhou Project characters
•Bethesda characters entirely
•Koei Tecmo characters entirely
•Activision characters
•Blizzard characters
•It possibly being another Microsoft character
•It possibly being another Square Enix character
•It being a Nintendo character
•an Assist Trophy "promoted" to being playable
•a Spirit "promoted" to being playable
•Gordon Freeman from Half Life

 

[SKX31]

Any updates?

A China update! I'm posting this since it's less than 2 days now before the Switch launches there (due to time zone stuff) and I actually missed something last time around.

Namely, this business article from a Nintendo shareholder notes a couple important things:

* The JD and TMall (official stores) are interest / reservation numbers (those have crept up now, they now stand at 90K+ on JD, 20K on TMall's computer version and 150K+ on TMall's mobile version. It's likely because it's the weekend.) with actual preorders totalling 12K between the two official stores. Actual pre-orders require an extra $14 deposit on top of $300 for priority, so that might be why pre-orders seem low. Still, the official stores have shown pretty high interest, inflated numbers or not.

* I also missed an official offline retailer - even though Tencent doesn't have an official storefront there online: Suning. Again, linking directly, so Google Translate's your friend. Suning sells both Chinese Switches and imported ones from NA, JP etc. right in the open. Yea, the situation in China is paradoxical and weird as I've said before. Anyhow, Suning claims a interest / reservation count of 120K+. Making the total number of Chinese reservations...

380K having expressed interest / placed reservations at the absolute highest. While I expect the number to lower than that for numerous reasons (people interested winding up not buying, double-booking etc) even if you cut the number by as much as 75 % you still wind up with close to six figures and right around analysts' expectations. Just during the pre-order days. As I've said before - this is despite the Switch having a major grey market presence (Suning etc.) and so on. Also, again, Japan's first month numbers was 600K.

I'm not gonna call the Switch a massive success when it hasn't been officially released yet - it could certainly fail. That said, these numbers look bigger than expected, and this could certainly have an impact on Ultimate's DLC. Chinese Switches are able to play imported games, and a lot of Chinese commenters expect many buyers to hack the Chinese Switch (the hacking is to bypass the official censorship: unlock the global eShop and play with imported consoles as well as consoles in JP, NA etc.).

In other words:

I'm expecting a grand finale to this arc of Smash Speculation which leads into screams of pure anguish

Prepare yourselves. Regardless of how the launch goes there.

 

[Ura]

So are GX and Souce Gaming calling Verge in to question here?

Maybe they know something he doesn't?

 

[RouffWestie]

Not a single one of my top 5 most wanted newcomers are on Vergeben's list and that worries me because now I'll start having false hope.

 

[Deleted member]

It's amazing to see where speculation has gone with the 1 year anniversary special of Ultimate being the Vergeburger listing a ****load of companies that aren't FP5. We're at a point where people see Kratos or Geralt as high possibilities now.



Now, the real kicker would be if we get bamboozled again with Verg saying it's not either of the 2 and it's either Francis York Morgan or a rep from Devolver Digital. My heart will actually stop beating for a whole minute if that happened.

 

[Deleted member]

Wow, I can't believe Vergeben didn't disconfirm Magica Quartet characters! Time to hype myself up to unreasonable levels!

 

[Jedisupersonic]

When Saber has one of the better chances with all these possible deconfirmations. You know we’ve entered a wild period of Smash.

 

[Deleted member]

I’m just happy that the Gamexplain staff agrees with me on Pauline regarding Smash.

 

[RoboFist]

Chell finishing the pass... I could see it. Only problem is there'd be like, 5 Spirits in the Spirit Board. Turret, the bodies, Glados and Wheatley.

Beyond Spirits and maybe music beyond a few tracks, she doesn't sound wrong.

Not if they go the Terry/SNK route and include TF2 and Half Life tracks/Spirits?

Honestly, a character from a developer that revolutionized PC gaming? That honestly doesn't sound bad at all, and Chell would be a perfect Nintendo-friendly choice.

 

[Garteam]

If it is a Sony rep, I really want to know what opened the floodgates, considering Sony has been historically stingy about working with Nintendo or Microsoft in the past.

 

[TheTuninator]

Not if they go the Terry/SNK route and include TF2 and Half Life tracks/Spirits?

Honestly, a character from a developer that revolutionized PC gaming? That honestly doesn't sound bad at all, and Chell would be a perfect Nintendo-friendly choice.

I'm extremely skeptical on Chell because a portal-based moveset sounds like a nightmare to design and implement.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Copied and pasted from a discord I'm in

•Crash Bandicoot
•Ryu Hayabusa from Ninja Gaiden
•Doom Guy from DOOM
•Geno from SMRPG
•Tracer from Overwatch
•Scorpion from Mortal Kombat
•Dante from Devil May Cry
•All Resident Evil characters
•All Tales of characters
•All Falcom characters
•All Nippon Ichi characters
•All Capcom characters
•All Namco characters •
Sora from Kingdom Hearts
•Capcom characters
•Sega characters
•Konami characters
•Arc System Works characters
•Spike Chunsoft characters
•Marvelous characters
•Epic Games characters
•ZUN / Team Shanghai Alice's Touhou Project characters
•Bethesda characters entirely
•Koei Tecmo characters entirely
•Activision characters
•Blizzard characters
•It possibly being another Microsoft character
•It possibly being another Square Enix character
•It being a Nintendo character
•an Assist Trophy "promoted" to being playable
•a Spirit "promoted" to being playable
•Gordon Freeman from Half Life

So only Gordon Freeman and Scorpion have been denied without their whole company going with them. And Sora if we consider him Disney.

 

[MooMew64]

Chell would be so dang hype. Oh my gosh, I'd love that so much.

 

[yeet123]

Yo can somebody pls tell me what Verg said or link to his post? Thank you!

 

[zeldasmash]

Yo can somebody pls tell me what Verg said or link to his post? Thank you!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78218788?page=5#51

 

[Garteam]

Chell finishing the pass... I could see it. Only problem is there'd be like, 5 Spirits in the Spirit Board. Turret, the bodies, Glados and Wheatley.

Beyond Spirits and maybe music beyond a few tracks, she doesn't sound wrong.

Alternatively, having the Heavy Weapons Guy or another TF2 character finishing the pass could be a viable option. I don't how big TF2 is in Japan, but then again, Sakurai seems okay with having 3rd parties meant to appeal primarily to one region over the other.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Alternatively, having the Heavy Weapons Guy or another TF2 character finishing the pass could be a viable option. I don't how big TF2 is in Japan, but then again, Sakurai seems okay with having 3rd parties meant to appeal primarily to one region over the other.

Think he's trying to appeal to Eastern Europe?

 

[Opossum]

I'm extremely skeptical on Chell because a portal-based moveset sounds like a nightmare to design and implement.

The groundwork is already sort of in place between the custom stage portals, Abra, and the Beast Ball.

 

[TwiceEXE]

I would be shocked to see another Valve character over Gordon. That'd be like Tidus instead of Cloud.

 

[Ura]

So yeah.

So are GX and Souce Gaming calling Verge in to question here?

Maybe they know something he doesn't?

I'm really thinking this might be the case given what Nantenjex & Jon tweeted.

Maybe IDK.

 

[Garteam]

Think he's trying to appeal to Eastern Europe?

Is Valve big in Eastern Europe? I know most of the West would collectively explode if Valve had a character in Smash, so that could probably be good enough.

 

[Jomosensual]

Copied and pasted from a discord I'm in

•Crash Bandicoot
•Ryu Hayabusa from Ninja Gaiden
•Doom Guy from DOOM
•Geno from SMRPG
•Tracer from Overwatch
•Scorpion from Mortal Kombat
•Dante from Devil May Cry
•All Resident Evil characters
•All Tales of characters
•All Falcom characters
•All Nippon Ichi characters
•All Capcom characters
•All Namco characters •
Sora from Kingdom Hearts
•Capcom characters
•Sega characters
•Konami characters
•Arc System Works characters
•Spike Chunsoft characters
•Marvelous characters
•Epic Games characters
•ZUN / Team Shanghai Alice's Touhou Project characters
•Bethesda characters entirely
•Koei Tecmo characters entirely
•Activision characters
•Blizzard characters
•It possibly being another Microsoft character
•It possibly being another Square Enix character
•It being a Nintendo character
•an Assist Trophy "promoted" to being playable
•a Spirit "promoted" to being playable
•Gordon Freeman from Half Life

To expand on this, the newly deconfirmed characters are:
•Capcom characters - Monster Hunter, Phoenix Wright, Ammy, Morrigan, Arthur
•Sega characters - Sonic Reps, Arle
•Konami characters - Frogger, Contra rep, Silent Hill rep
•Arc System Works characters - Sol Badguy
•Spike Chunsoft characters - Monokuma
•Marvelous characters - Travis Touchdown, The Farmer
•Epic Games characters - Jonsey
•ZUN / Team Shanghai Alice's Touhou Project characters - Reimu
•Bethesda characters entirely - Vault Boy, Dovahkiin
•Koei Tecmo characters entirely - Dead or Alive rep
•Activision characters - Spyro, Titan from Destiny, Call of Duty rep
•Blizzard characters - Overwatch rep, Diablo rep

If I got something wrong or missed something big feel free to correct me

 

[DarthEnderX]

Part 2:

Morrigan, Toadette, Fio(driving an SV-001 Metal Slug), Nakoruru, Jill Valentine and Amaterasu deserve to be WAY higher on the list. Like, in the top 10.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Is Valve big in Eastern Europe? I know most of the West would collectively explode if Valve had a character in Smash, so that could probably be good enough.

Online shooters in general are big in Russia. Funny thing, the Heavy is actually a lot more eloquent in the Russian Translation. That must be his PhD in Russian Literature comes into effect.

 

[SKX31]

If it is a Sony rep, I really want to know what opened the floodgates, considering Sony has been historically stingy about working with Nintendo or Microsoft in the past.

No longer being a direct competitor (Sony doesn't have a handheld, Nintendo doesn't have a Ultra HD power machine) and Sony was at one point in talks over making the Mario movie. Also, people who justifiably hate Nintendo like Kutaragi left Sony long enough ago.

Is Valve big in Eastern Europe? I know most of the West would collectively explode if Valve had a character in Smash, so that could probably be good enough.

Oh, yes. CS:GO and Dota 2 might as well be Russia's national video games. Valve's stuff also has significant presence in Eastern Europe, like those two I mentioned. But also TF2 IIRC.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

Tbh I think people are grasping at straws because, now, the kill list finally took out their most wanted.

I mean, I myself am suspicious of this. I get a weird feeling something could be up. But I’m not going to be a conspiracy theorist necessarily and post essentially, “Here’s how Waluigi can still win”.

Take it for what it is, talk about it, and remember that we’ve got less than a week until it’s over.

Pepsi Man won, btw.

I’m still leaning towards Verge since it lines up with a previous theory of mine, even though my most wanted got snapped.

However, the main reason why I’m not 100% sure is because it feels like we are doing the same song and dance all over again, because I remember last year right before the VGAs, Hitagi had a MASSIVE kill list that people seemed to take seriously, and look how that turned out.

There is also Gamexplain and Source Gaming calling him into question too.

 

[Opossum]

Part 2:

Morrigan, Toadette, Fio(driving an SV-001 Metal Slug), Nakoruru, Jill Valentine and Amaterasu deserve to be WAY higher on the list. Like, in the top 10.

I'm just happy Edelgard, Chun-Li, and Lara Croft made the top ten.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

This Gamexplain thing reminds me of the Grinch leaks in that they looks legit to the outsiders but the people in the know just dismissed it outright which lead to... some hostility let's say.

 

[Hexodus]

Hmmm...

If Vergeben's not being duped, I think the chances of an indie shot up a lot. Quote? Little Ghost?

Also I still think Frisk or Flowey is valid even if Sans got deconfirmed hes not the main character he's not even as important to the plot as the Dreemurrs are

 

[Deleted member]

Heavy is the best Valve rep because he;

• Works to provide for his mother and sisters
• Has a strong sense of teamwork and values his teammates
• Is an actual professor

How could someone say no to such a caring and intelligent man?

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Hmmm...

If Vergeben's not being duped, I think the chances of an indie shot up a lot. Quote? Little Ghost?

Also I still think Frisk or Flowey is valid even if Sans got deconfirmed hes not the main character he's not even as important to the plot as the Dreemurrs are

Quote, Commander Video and either The Knight or Hornet from Hollow Knight are the largest ones left.

There's a few others I'd like to see like Lilac, Miriam or Yooka and Laylee but those ones may be a bit too close to ones already in.

 

[Garteam]

Imagine if the whole "Mario on Playstation" thing was legit and Smash Bros. Ultimate getting a Sony character was to announce that the game was also coming to PS4/5, starting a Nintendo/Sony relationship.

Granted, it doesn't make a ton of business sense to make a major system seller a non-exclusive, but **** it. We live in a world where Nintendo has games on mobile and Microsoft has games on Switch. It's still out there, but things only a little less weird have happened.

 

[cothero]

someone didn't see the joker reveal live

Do i even need to say why?...

 

[nessdeltarune00]

Does anyone have screenshots/page number of people reacting to Hitagis kill list last year?

 

[TwiceEXE]

Honestly, looking at the track record for Smash DLC leaks indicates that FP5 may not have leaked at all. And if it did, it may not be in the channels that Sabi/Verge use.

Joker: Not leaked
Hero: Verge called this
Banjo: Drunk cat and Shinobi called this
Terry: Not leaked (leaked by Nintendo by accident but not through leak channels)
FP5: ???

I really don't know at this point. The huge list feels off to me. And no, it's not because my most wanteds were killed by it. They were dead with earlier disconfirmations and I fully bought into those.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I'm not being revisionist, I just don't give two bagels about his track record outside of Smash. As far as I'm concerned, as a Smash leaker, the guy has shown himself trustworthy, and I don't see why the mere passage of time would have changed any of that.

That said, if you don't wanna believe him, no skin off my back, and TGA is this Thursday anyway. But the backlash when just yesterday everyone was looking at him for information reeks of hoping that their most wanted still has a shot, or alternatively sheer uncreativity to think of other characters aside from the ones we've been discussing for so long.

The passage of time is everything. Your position is not a monolith as a leaker, it is forever changing and evolving as you attempt to conduct yourself. It's not the mere passage of time though that does further factor into an overall assessment of his "credibility." Let me re-frame this process:

1. Verge has a poor track record trying to make a name for himself through a variety of bad leaks.
2. Verge has a successful set of leaks for base game Ultimate across a few months and rises to fame. Doesn't get everything to begin with and is famously non-committal to a lot of things such as Isabelle's status and blatantly takes a loss on Minecraft content that he goes insistent on.
3. November 2018 - Verge says Dragon Quest/Square Enix content is coming (Again, there is evidence pointing to this idea being worked on for a very long time pre-release). This is the last thing Verge brought to the table.
4. February 2019 - Verge goes "all-in" on a set of Nintendo Direct confirmations, only for it to absolutely blow up in his face. Credibility is heavily shaken and called into question.
5. June 2019 - Shinobi and the leaking community goes all in on Banjo & Kazooie at E3, Verge comes in very late to back this up.
6. August/September 2019 - SNK is leaked by Nintendo, Verge goes all-in on the absolutely obvious Terry Bogard.
7. December 2019 - Verge starts playing in the "disconfirmation games" by shooting down a little of this and that before he presents his magnum opus of "disconfirmations."

What does all that tell us? Verge had a string of successes and has not shown us anything DLC wise besides the Dragon Quest content (which evidence, again, points to being the earliest developed DLC and having been planned for some time). He didn't show anything about Joker, and hopped on to the other DLC fighters once far more reputable people had made their calls (and the absolutely obvious Terry was revealed by Nintendo). He didn't get anything "right" then because it doesn't mean anything to confirm once the cat is already out of the bag. He hasn't had anything to say since November 2018, which demonstrates the fact that his value as a source has seriously depreciated.

And I've been yelling at this collective Smash community to stop giving Sabi and Vergeben the time of day for weeks, if not months since they've shown themselves to be unreliable people without any willingness to commit to much of anything. It has nothing to do with who Vergeben "disconfirmed" and I think a great deal of us pushing against him would proclaim the same thing. We're sick and tired of his bull**** and irrelevance to this whole process, and when he makes an absurdly long list of disconfirmations with nothing to back up anything alongside all of the other stuff. Yeah, that's make sense to see as a breaking point.

 

[AngrySun88]

Yeah, I'm still not going to go all in on Verge when he's been wrong before and more trustworthy people like Jon and Source Gaming are casting doubt.

The whole internet insider thing is weird and I don't know what the incentive is. If your entire online presence is based around "leaking" things then your audience literally don't care about you, they just want your rumours. What do you get out of it?

— Jon Cartwright (@JonComms) December 7, 2019