Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

shinhed-echi

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If I recall correctly, Minecraft has become huge in Japan, being one of the most played ones there. For a Western game to have gained that much of a following there as well, it means it's pretty dang revolutionary. Japanese gamers are pretty nationalists when it comes to videogames.
Heck, it's so popular over there even Square-Enix went for a DQ skinned version of it.

I'm not MC fan, but I call it like I see it, and MC is huge enough to be a worthy DLC inclusion.
 

N3ON

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I think that this 5chan leak is fake. It panders too much to the current fan speculation.
Between the DQ saga, the Minecraft rumours, and the Bethesda statement, the only character that seems arbitrarily included is Ryu, who has by far the least presence of the four in the current speculation scene...

I don't think it's pandering as much as it's a list made by someone who did their homework.
 

GoodGrief741

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Between the DQ saga, the Minecraft rumours, and the Bethesda statement, the only character that seems arbitrarily included is Ryu, who has by far the least presence of the four in the current speculation scene...

I don't think it's pandering as much as it's a list made by someone who did their homework.
Ryu still has the ‘obvious NES third party following Mega Man and Simon Belmont’ thing. He really started gaining traction after Simon leaked.
 
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N3ON

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Ouch. I think he definitely has a lot, especially thanks to the ‘leak’.
I'm not against Ryu Hayabusa or anything - and of the four he's had the longest real support for Smash - since Brawl, but I think it would be apt to say he's definitely the least discussed of the group. And perhaps that's because he's the least divisive, but it also seems like there's just a lack of hype surrounding him as well.
 

GoodGrief741

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I'm not against Ryu Hayabusa or anything - and of the four he's had the longest real support for Smash - since Brawl, but I think it would be apt to say he's definitely the least discussed of the group. And perhaps that's because he's the least divisive, but it also seems like there's just a lack of hype surrounding him as well.
True.
 

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Ryu Hayabusa is the only one I actually noticed with a fanbase before being "leaked". Well DG and Joker had modest ones too, mainly on Reddit, but I definitely didn't see anything for Steve or Erdrick until after.
 
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If I recall correctly, Minecraft has become huge in Japan, being one of the most played ones there. For a Western game to have gained that much of a following there as well, it means it's pretty dang revolutionary. Japanese gamers are pretty nationalists when it comes to videogames.
Heck, it's so popular over there even Square-Enix went for a DQ skinned version of it.

I'm not MC fan, but I call it like I see it, and MC is huge enough to be a worthy DLC inclusion.
Hey, Crash was and kinda still is pretty popular in Japan for a Western game, heh, I can dream!
 

Robdelia

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In regards to Banjo I think it's important to note that characters like K Rool survived years of hibernation only to burst back into popularity. Granted, this can also apply to characters in the 5chan leak like Ryu Hayabusa, but ruling out Banjo just because "he hasn't had a game in a while" just feels unfair. Look at Simon and Richter for another example of this.
Nintendo is calling the shots for DLC but they also have to approve every character in the base game. They wouldn't produce amiibos of/market characters like K Rool, Simon, or Richter unless they were okay with them being in. So considering they already approved revivals of those characters, I don't believe Banjo is off the table.
also I'm convinced Steve is impossible to animate in a fighting game while still looking like he does in OG Minecraft, so that doesn't help the 5chan leak either
 

FunAtParties

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Anytime the Smash community tries to setup criteria for characters during speculation, it always backfires. I mean as been pointed out numerous times before, the often relevancy card has consistently backfired, yet continues to be a heralded rule
I don't really see people setting up criteria in which they believe characters are going to be chosen by anymore. In my case, it's still that I don't believe they should stray too far from their roots with DLC. That doesn't mean it's not gonna happen, it literally already has with Joker, but I'd like for them to chill tf out with it
 
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Joker really has shown anything is possible. I think it is pretty for sure we’re getting some sort of Microsoft rep, and that shows even further anything is possible. Or there is no Microsoft rep, and still everything is possible
 
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Anytime the Smash community tries to setup criteria for characters during speculation, it always backfires. I mean as been pointed out numerous times before, the often relevancy card has consistently backfired, yet continues to be a heralded rule
Well technically relevancy still sorta killed Isaac's chances lol
 

Robdelia

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Sakurai killed Isaac's chances.
Honestly, I think Isaac is in the same boat K Rool was in at the end of Smash 4. I don't think the assist was meant as "Isaac will never be in let me feast on your tears" because I don't think Sakurai and the devs are spiteful people. I think what happened is they only had 2 years to develop the game, and they only had so many newcomers to pick from the ballot. So they saw how popular Isaac was and went "Okay, we don't have the time to make him playable, and K Rool is more recognizable overall so we picked him as the ballot champion. But, we know you guys care about Isaac, so we made sure to include him in some capacity." Like how K Rool's mii costume wasn't a middle finger to the fans, but the best the devs could do given the circumstances.
Come season 2 of the DLC or Super Smash Bros Ultimate Director's Cut on whatever the next console is, I think Isaac will make it in.
 

SPEN18

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I think what happened is they only had 2 years to develop the game, and they only had so many newcomers to pick from the ballot
It was actually more than two years of development time. The project plan was in late 2015 to early 2016; two years from there is early 2018. Then they had until the end of the year for release. So it's not quite three years and a little bit less than other Smash games, but given the number of assets they could port from the Wii U it probably comes to an average development timeline for a Smash game.

the best the devs could do given the circumstances.
Maybe more like "best they were willing to do" rather than "best they could do." But yeah, they had other priorities; whether or not those other priorities were worth excluding dynamite characters like Isaac is another discussion.

I don't think that Sakurai and his team are out for Isaac's head or wanting to spite the fans, but I wouldn't dismiss it as a case of "oh this was all that was possible." They could have done more, but they chose not to do so; again, whether or not that was justified is a different discussion. It is still good to appreciate the content that they did fetch for the fans, though.
 

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My dream DQ rep for Smash would be Eight and/or Dragonlord, but the most logical picks are probably Slime and/or Erdrick.

Regarding Ryu Hayabusa, I would be fine with him just so I could say that Smash has two characters who canonically met the AVGN (the other being R.O.B.). Just for that alone I am completely open to him, and the stuff I played of Ninja Gaiden 1 on the NES Classic shows a character that could be neat in regards to moveset.
 
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Honestly, I think Isaac is in the same boat K Rool was in at the end of Smash 4. I don't think the assist was meant as "Isaac will never be in let me feast on your tears" because I don't think Sakurai and the devs are spiteful people. I think what happened is they only had 2 years to develop the game, and they only had so many newcomers to pick from the ballot. So they saw how popular Isaac was and went "Okay, we don't have the time to make him playable, and K Rool is more recognizable overall so we picked him as the ballot champion. But, we know you guys care about Isaac, so we made sure to include him in some capacity." Like how K Rool's mii costume wasn't a middle finger to the fans, but the best the devs could do given the circumstances.
Come season 2 of the DLC or Super Smash Bros Ultimate Director's Cut on whatever the next console is, I think Isaac will make it in.
Yep this is pretty much my thoughts too. Isaac's inclusion in this game could've been akin to Pit in Brawl
 
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Does it have no basis though?

Sure, @Robertman2 is blunt with his points and disregards opposing arguments. That being said, I would argue that his point is correct, albiet the way he delivered it could have been more effective. Taking a look at the 5chan leak:

  • Joker is the protagonist of a modern JRPG masterpiece. Persona 5 revitalized the JRPG market in the West, and was able to contend with the heavy hitters in 2017 like Breath of the Wild and Horizon: Zero Dawn for awards and accolades.
  • If you want an argument for Erdrick, I suggest you refer to my Ultimate Square Enix Character Argument (linked in my signature). Essentially, Dragon Quest is a cultural phenomenon akin to Pokémon in Japan, if not more popular
  • If you want an argument for Steve, please refer to my The Case for Minecraft Steve and the Smash Bubble Effect. Essentially, Minecraft is one of the best-selling games of all time, and is a cultural phenomenon worldwide. If you believe that any character can go toe to toe with Steve, and subsequently Minecraft's, popularity you're plain wrong.
  • Ryu Hayabusa is a bit of an oddball third party pick, and I'll concede he's not as popular as other prominent picks. That being said, he pretty much rounds out the "Characters from Classic NES games" crew alongside Mega Man and Simon Belmont. Ninja Gaiden is well remembered as a hallmark of the NES-era, which gives him a solid pass.
  • Similar to Steve and Ryu, DOOM's popularity (both in its classic form and its modern revival) is too noteworthy to pass up. I also don't think you understand the prominence of DOOM to video gaming as a whole. Sakurai himself cites John Carmack, the developer of DOOM, as "the Father of the FPS genre" in an interview as the only American developer alongside prominent Japanese developers like Yoko Taro and Hideki Kamiya.
Not many other characters have claims to fame similar to each of these (minus Ryu), and I left out other arguments such as historical significance (except in the case of DOOM, wherein it provides important context as to why Doom Guy is a popular character; the character's popularity is tied to their game, similar to Steve and Minecraft) that act in favor of these characters and against other popular picks.

Each character has solid reasons to be included and are well liked by many people. You've seen the reactions to Joker. Japan would react similarly to Erdrick despite mixed reception in the West, Ryu would be received similar to Simon, and the internet would legitimately break over Steve and Doom Guy. These are the reactions Nintendo want to market their DLC, and the reactions would certainly be more prominent and have more net positive gain for Nintendo than those if characters like Banjo & Kazooie, Bandana Dee, and Geno took their places.
It looks like you didn't refer to my The Case for Minecraft Steve and the "Smash Bubble Effect", because your argument consists almost solely of "these characters are popular within the Smash bubble therefore they are more popular overall," which simply isn't the case. I've pasted the relevant section below:
One of the most prominent arguments against Steve is that he's not a popular choice among fans, with speculators citing fan poll after fan poll to prove this. One GameFAQs user even said of polls like this,

Oh GameFAQs how you never cease to amuse me.

All of these polls fall into the same trap of being contained within the "Smash Bubble" as myself and others have coined it. What exactly is the "Smash Bubble" though? If I had to define it, I would as such:


While the contribution of these focused fans isn't to be ignored, as evidenced by K. Rool's immense Ballot presence in part due to the Kutthroat's Ballot Campaign and Sakurai's statements on Ridley and Geno, a flaw of the fanbase at large is a general insistence that those within the Smash Bubble are the only Smash Bros. fans and that by not catering to them specifically, Nintendo is making a mistake. This sentiment completely ignores other fanbases outside of the core fanbase which gave us picks such as Isabelle and Simon Belmont.

"But tehponycorn" you say, "Simon was a popular pick! Sakurai even said so himself!" Take a look at the many fan polls listed above and tell me how many Simon prominently appears on. The answer is 3. While 3/12 may seem like modest popularity, his votes total less than 1,000, and he's listed among many other, more popular third party characters. That hardly lines up with Sakurai's statement of Castlevania being "popular in player polls." So, there's a disconnect between what fan polls show and actual popularity? Why is this?

I propose an explanation in two parts:

First, all fan polls by nature fall prey to Voluntary Response Bias, defined as:

Every Smash fan poll cited majorly falls within the Smash Bubble because those within the Smash Bubble are most inclined to vote on polls like these. Granted, even the official Smash Ballot itself falls prey to this, and indeed those within the Smash Bubble would be much more inclined to vote in an official poll like this, but any bias within it is made up for by the Law of Large Numbers, defined as:

The official nature of the poll and the advertising conducted for it extended the reach of the poll to even casual fans, which is why it's so important to establish this disconnect. The largest, most recent Smash fan poll as of right now is the Reddit Smash Ultimate Tourney randomized poll, with over 50,000 votes. In comparison, the Smash Ballot collected 1.8 million votes (360 times more votes), making it much closer to the wants of the entire Smash Bros. fanbase, hence why picks like Simon Belmont can float by the core fanbase largely undetected.

Second, there exists a strong, silent majority of fans outside of the core fanbase that has sway in character picks. People tend to forget that Nintendo tries to market Smash Bros. for everyone, or at the very least, the largest amount of people possible. It doesn't matter if you're a child whose mom bought him a Switch for Christmas or someone who's been with them since the NES, so long as you're a fan of Nintendo you might as well be considered a part of the Smash Bros. fanbase. Naturally, the wider Nintendo fanbase is largely varied, and outside of the Smash Bubble exists many different demographics with different character desires. This is how we end up with picks like Isabelle, who caters to the larger, more casual fanbase who see Isabelle often.

Returning to the Reddit Smash Ultimate Tourney randomized poll, you'll notice that Sora and Phoenix Wright scored better than they typically do in other fan polls, taking 5th and 8th place respectively, and garnering a total 20,883 votes, equal to around 40% of votes in the final round. This is impressive for two characters usually overlooked within the Smash Bubble in favor of other, more popular speculation picks. The poll includes this interesting fact about them:

If a larger reddit fan poll was able to attract people outside of Reddit's r/SmashBros, then a poll as massive as the official Ballot would be able to attract people from all over, giving a skew towards the silent majority as anyone could vote on it, even people outside of the regular Nintendo or Smash Bros. fanbase.

To make a long story short, there is a silent presence outside of the Smash Bubble. It is large and it is more powerful than many think. While our Smash Bubble is a prominent part of the fanbase, Nintendo has a much wider fanbase to appeal to as well, and the Smash Bubble isn't indicative of Smash Bros. fans in general.
Your argument is confined to the core fanbase and dismissive of any wider viewpoints. Sure, we got some core picks in base (K. Rool, Ridley, Chrom, Dark Samus), but we also got other non-core picks (Simon, Isabelle, Daisy, Incineroar). Sakurai has even stated that Smash has evolved past its Nintendo All-Stars moniker. Whether you like it or not there is more to Smash Bros. character picks than the handful of characters requested by the core fanbase. Simon snuck past the core fanbase thanks to the Ballot, and I wouldn't be surprised if other non-core characters (like Steve and Erdrick) did so as well.

A GTA character would be super cool though. I'd take Trevor with crazy vehicle and rocket attacks over most speculation picks any day of the week.
I just want to pop in to say that these are both very good posts. I think a post on the "Smash bubble" was very overdue. The example on Castlevania is extremely poignant in particular (I hardly saw the "core" talk about how much Castlevania deserved to be in). Personally, it was a very pleasant surprise to me that Castlevania was able to make the roster despite it seeming like the "Smash bubble" had hardly any interest in it (since it is among my Top 3 non-Nintendo gaming franchises).

One thing that I would feel the need to add though for your Ryu Hayabusa analysis is that Ninja Gaiden did receive a trilogy of 3D action games (along with a DS exclusive title) from 2004 to 2012. The first game for the original Xbox in particular is considered to be among the best games for that console. There has not been any new Ninja Gaiden titles for most of this decade. However, the character is certainly not only from the NES days, and the modern Ninja Gaiden games used to be a pretty big deal, although Ninja Gaiden 3 ended up being poorly received. Ironically the same thing happened with the NES game to the original trilogy, in which it ended up being the most poorly received of the trilogy which ended up putting the series into a long hiatus.

Overall, those are both very good posts, and things that needed to be said that I have seen very few others pick up on.
 
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FunAtParties

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Honestly, I think Isaac is in the same boat K Rool was in at the end of Smash 4. I don't think the assist was meant as "Isaac will never be in let me feast on your tears" because I don't think Sakurai and the devs are spiteful people. I think what happened is they only had 2 years to develop the game, and they only had so many newcomers to pick from the ballot. So they saw how popular Isaac was and went "Okay, we don't have the time to make him playable, and K Rool is more recognizable overall so we picked him as the ballot champion. But, we know you guys care about Isaac, so we made sure to include him in some capacity." Like how K Rool's mii costume wasn't a middle finger to the fans, but the best the devs could do given the circumstances.
Come season 2 of the DLC or Super Smash Bros Ultimate Director's Cut on whatever the next console is, I think Isaac will make it in.
I'm not trying to imply Sakurai is an evil man that gains energy by watching Golden Sun fans suffer, but I do believe he overlooks the notable results Isaac gets in popularity contests because he doesn't really recognize the franchise as one that needs a character, which I disagree with.
 

Chinderblock

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king k rool wants a word with you about relevance against characters getting in
A character who is currently irrelevant from a relevant series.

There's a difference. The series being relevant can help as well.

So it's not the same situation whatsoever. He likely has a future too, since DKC is ongoing. Meanwhile, Golden Sun is on hiatus, so there's no way to know if Isaac has any real future at this point. So again, different situations. I'd like Isaac to get in, but his series not getting any games any time soon isn't exactly helping his chances. DKC getting games lately makes a difference.
 

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But given said return and noticed popularity by Nintendo is guaranteed to make future appearances again in future Donkey Kong games and supposedly Mario spin-offs.
Which is good, but doesn't change the fact that if a series isn't active, them getting characters is lower priority. King K. Rool always had a chance for a future appearance due to the fact DKC is still active. Adding him isn't why he has better chances to be more active. It's the fact his series is.

Golden Sun is not active. This means Isaac has less chances of being active as a character than King K. Rool. That's why there's a rather large difference due to the series alone, not just the character.
 
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Which is good, but doesn't change the fact that if a series isn't active, them getting characters is lower priority. King K. Rool always had a chance for a future appearance due to the fact DKC is still active. Adding him isn't why he has better chances to be more active. It's the fact his series is.

Golden Sun is not active. This means Isaac has less chances of being active as a character than King K. Rool. That's why there's a rather large difference due to the series alone, not just the character.
I misinterpreted then. I do agree with that Isaac being of a dead franchise really hurt his chances.

Then again though Crash has come back from the dead after being inactive for years with a racing game coming out.
 

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I misinterpreted then. I do agree with that Isaac being of a dead franchise really hurt his chances.

Then again though Crash has come back from the dead after being inactive for years with a racing game coming out.
Yep, though I wouldn't say 3rd Parties need relevance as much to get in compared to 1st Parties. Sometimes a 3rd Party gets in due to their gaming history.

Sometimes characters like Bayonetta happen, who don't have that going for them. So others factors can exist. Veterans are also affected by the "relevancy" factor too. Wolf had no upcoming games, and was harder to remake than Falco. I also am thinking he intended to have cuts in 4 due to development times, but I got no proof of that. Of course, there were cuts due to 3DS limitations too, but yeah.
 

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Ok, this thread is actually real and I didn’t imagine it.

My hopes for the Direct are these:
>Metroid Prime Trilogy on Switch.
>Spyro on Switch.
>New DKC game.
>K.Rool and/or Mach Rider in Mario Kart/Mario Tennis Aces.
>New Ultimate Alliance 3 trailer featuring the Fantastic Four.
>Amiibo of Dark Samus, the Belmonts, Snake and maybe Meta Ridley.
>New F-Zero/Mach Rider.
>Dragon Quest stuff.
>”Brave” getting revealed and being Erdrick or Eight from Dragon Quest.
>Super Mario Maker DX/2.
>Super Mario 3D World on Switch.
 

GoodGrief741

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Ok, this thread is actually real and I didn’t imagine it.

My hopes for the Direct are these:
>Metroid Prime Trilogy on Switch.
>Spyro on Switch.
>New DKC game.
>K.Rool and/or Mach Rider in Mario Kart/Mario Tennis Aces.
>New Ultimate Alliance 3 trailer featuring the Fantastic Four.
>Amiibo of Dark Samus, the Belmonts, Snake and maybe Meta Ridley.
>New F-Zero/Mach Rider.
>Dragon Quest stuff.
>”Brave” getting revealed and being Erdrick or Eight from Dragon Quest.
>Super Mario Maker DX/2.
>Super Mario 3D World on Switch.
A man of good taste.
 
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