One of the most prominent arguments against Steve is that he's not a popular choice among fans,
with speculators citing fan poll after fan poll to prove this. One GameFAQs user even said of polls like this,
Oh GameFAQs how you never cease to amuse me.
All of these polls fall into the same trap of being contained within the "Smash Bubble" as myself and others have coined it. What exactly is the "Smash Bubble" though? If I had to define it, I would as such:
While the contribution of these focused fans isn't to be ignored, as evidenced by K. Rool's immense Ballot presence in part due to the
Kutthroat's Ballot Campaign and Sakurai's statements on
Ridley and
Geno, a flaw of the fanbase at large is a general insistence that those within the Smash Bubble are the only Smash Bros. fans and that by not catering to them specifically, Nintendo is making a mistake. This sentiment completely ignores other fanbases outside of the core fanbase which gave us picks such as Isabelle and Simon Belmont.
"But tehponycorn" you say, "
Simon was a popular pick! Sakurai even said so himself!" Take a look at the many fan polls listed above and tell me how many Simon prominently appears on. The answer is 3. While 3/12 may seem like modest popularity, his votes total less than 1,000, and he's listed among many other, more popular third party characters. That hardly lines up with Sakurai's statement of Castlevania being "popular in player polls." So, there's a disconnect between what fan polls show and actual popularity? Why is this?
I propose an explanation in two parts:
First, all fan polls by nature fall prey to
Voluntary Response Bias, defined as:
Every Smash fan poll cited majorly falls within the Smash Bubble because those within the Smash Bubble are most inclined to vote on polls like these. Granted, even the official Smash Ballot itself falls prey to this, and indeed those within the Smash Bubble would be much more inclined to vote in an official poll like this, but any bias within it is made up for by the
Law of Large Numbers, defined as:
The official nature of the poll and the advertising conducted for it extended the reach of the poll to even casual fans, which is why it's so important to establish this disconnect. The largest, most recent Smash fan poll as of right now is the Reddit Smash Ultimate Tourney randomized poll, with over
50,000 votes. In comparison, the Smash Ballot collected
1.8 million votes (360 times more votes), making it much closer to the wants of the entire Smash Bros. fanbase, hence why picks like Simon Belmont can float by the core fanbase largely undetected.
Second, there exists a strong, silent majority of fans outside of the core fanbase that has sway in character picks. People tend to forget that Nintendo tries to market Smash Bros. for everyone, or at the very least, the largest amount of people possible. It doesn't matter if you're a child whose mom bought him a Switch for Christmas or someone who's been with them since the NES, so long as you're a fan of Nintendo you might as well be considered a part of the Smash Bros. fanbase. Naturally, the wider Nintendo fanbase is largely varied, and outside of the Smash Bubble exists many different demographics with different character desires. This is how we end up with picks like Isabelle, who caters to the larger, more casual fanbase who see Isabelle often.
Returning to the
Reddit Smash Ultimate Tourney randomized poll, you'll notice that Sora and Phoenix Wright scored better than they typically do in other fan polls, taking 5th and 8th place respectively, and garnering a total 20,883 votes, equal to around 40% of votes in the final round. This is impressive for two characters usually overlooked within the Smash Bubble in favor of other, more popular speculation picks. The poll includes this interesting fact about them:
If a larger reddit fan poll was able to attract people outside of Reddit's r/SmashBros, then a poll as massive as the official Ballot would be able to attract people from all over, giving a skew towards the silent majority as anyone could vote on it, even people outside of the regular Nintendo or Smash Bros. fanbase.
To make a long story short, there is a silent presence outside of the Smash Bubble. It is large and it is more powerful than many think. While our Smash Bubble is a prominent part of the fanbase, Nintendo has a much wider fanbase to appeal to as well, and the Smash Bubble isn't indicative of Smash Bros. fans in general.
