Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

ryumo

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A lot of characters are only hated due to people thinking they will "steal" the place of their most wanted. Steve is pretty much inoffensive, and while not necessarily exciting for me, I don't see an issue with him being added. Right now people just dislike the idea of him due to Banjo being a most wanted, and Steve being mentioned by leakers. If you asked people if they would have disliked the idea of Steve before any "insider" mentioned him, I can imagine people would be more ambivalent.
 

Robertman2

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A lot of characters are only hated due to people thinking they will "steal" the place of their most wanted. Steve is pretty much inoffensive, and while not necessarily exciting for me, I don't see an issue with him being added. Right now people just dislike the idea of him due to Banjo being a most wanted, and Steve being mentioned by leakers. If you asked people if they would have disliked the idea of Steve before any "insider" mentioned him, I can imagine people would be more ambivalent.
Nah, Steve would be hated, simply because "HE'S STEALING BANJOS SPOT!" and "MINECRAFT IS LE CRINGEY KIDS GAME"
 

N3ON

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Forget the leak, the promotional third-parties are the ones that tend to get suggested here.

Skyrim gets announced and people start clamouring for Dovahkiin, then we get an Okami port and people start with Amaterasu, then a Crash port kicks that support into a higher gear, Mario + Rabbids caused a lot of discussion around the Rabbids, TWEWY gets announced and people are talking about Neku, etc etc. Even XC2 got people talking more seriously about KOS-MOS.

There are frequent spikes in popularity due to recent games, and the fanbase is still somewhat oblivious to how heavily it engages in promotion-induced clamouring. More so than this leak.

If you asked people if they would have disliked the idea of Steve before any "insider" mentioned him, I can imagine people would be more ambivalent.


Perhaps you should go back and check.
 
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Let’s agree to disagree.
Nope. You're just wrong.
The heck kinda argument is that? (referring to Robertman2's post)

then we get an Okami port and people start with Amaterasu
If by "people" you mean me then I would have mentioned here regardless of the port. But if you were talking about more than just this thread then please disregard this statement.

Right now people just dislike the idea of him due to Banjo being a most wanted, and Steve being mentioned by leakers. If you asked people if they would have disliked the idea of Steve before any "insider" mentioned him, I can imagine people would be more ambivalent.
I think people just hate Minecraft for being popular (kind of like how people hate Fortnite though I doubt that game will withstand the test of time as long as Minecraft has). My worry with Steve's inclusion is if Hytale blows Minecraft out of the water in a few years time.
 

TheCJBrine

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I think people just hate Minecraft for being popular (kind of like how people hate Fortnite though I doubt that game will withstand the test of time as long as Minecraft has). My worry with Steve's inclusion is if Hytale blows Minecraft out of the water in a few years time.
Nah, I've already seen people on the Hypixel site call it a ripoff (even though it has a lot of differences and looks cool).

I think I'll be playing both though I do fear Hytale may overshadow Minecraft (but Minecraft's long-lasting self may prevent that anyway).

I don't really get the hate against its popularity and the fanbase when it's not like Smash's fanbase or, well, really every other fanbase is any better. I've seen a lot of nice and mature people in Minecraft's community as well.
 
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Robertman2

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The heck kinda argument is that? (referring to Robertman2's post)


If by "people" you mean me then I would have mentioned here regardless of the port. But if you were talking about more than just this thread then please disregard this statement.


I think people just hate Minecraft for being popular (kind of like how people hate Fortnite though I doubt that game will withstand the test of time as long as Minecraft has). My worry with Steve's inclusion is if Hytale blows Minecraft out of the water in a few years time.
Because you go into any store that sells toys, you're gonna see a whole lotta Steve. Saying he isn't popular is just wrong
 

N3ON

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Perhaps ambivalent is pretty much a bad way to put it, more that people wouldn't have cared enough about it to actively hate him like now.
That's not really how it works, though. You won't actually find much hate for a character simply due to in-company competition rather than the character itself. I mean you don't see hate for Lloyd because he'd impede Heihachi. Or because Leon would impede Amaterasu. Or even Erdrick because he'd impede Sora. It's not like, earlier, Bomberman and Simon folks were at each others' throats.

People up in arms about series representation usually only occurs when there is already an abundance of representation from the series (like FE), or in-series disputes (like Pokemon or Xenoblade - or even Dragon Quest). I mean look at it now, it's not like the Banjo fans get incensed by those wanting Master Chief.

The biggest obstacle for third-parties is usually people just accepting that character/series' place within Smash. That was peoples' primarily problem with Bayonetta pre-inclusion. And Cloud. And Ryu. Steve has always been a hard sell just based on the character and the series. People have preconceptions about Minecraft and its audience, and the super polygonal, blocky, rigid and generic nature of Steve would be a large departure for the typical aesthetic of Smash. And if you look back, those were the largest problems people had with him.

Not the least of which was because Banjo himself was never seen as an overly likely inclusion (by most), just a highly desired one. From my experience, most people don't like Steve... just because of Steve and his series.
 
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Here we go with these definitive statements that have no basis
Does it have no basis though?

Sure, Robertman2 Robertman2 is blunt with his points and disregards opposing arguments. That being said, I would argue that his point is correct, albiet the way he delivered it could have been more effective. Taking a look at the 5chan leak:

  • Joker is the protagonist of a modern JRPG masterpiece. Persona 5 revitalized the JRPG market in the West, and was able to contend with the heavy hitters in 2017 like Breath of the Wild and Horizon: Zero Dawn for awards and accolades.
  • If you want an argument for Erdrick, I suggest you refer to my Ultimate Square Enix Character Argument (linked in my signature). Essentially, Dragon Quest is a cultural phenomenon akin to Pokémon in Japan, if not more popular
  • If you want an argument for Steve, please refer to my The Case for Minecraft Steve and the Smash Bubble Effect. Essentially, Minecraft is one of the best-selling games of all time, and is a cultural phenomenon worldwide. If you believe that any character can go toe to toe with Steve, and subsequently Minecraft's, popularity you're plain wrong.
  • Ryu Hayabusa is a bit of an oddball third party pick, and I'll concede he's not as popular as other prominent picks. That being said, he pretty much rounds out the "Characters from Classic NES games" crew alongside Mega Man and Simon Belmont. Ninja Gaiden is well remembered as a hallmark of the NES-era, which gives him a solid pass.
  • Similar to Steve and Ryu, DOOM's popularity (both in its classic form and its modern revival) is too noteworthy to pass up. I also don't think you understand the prominence of DOOM to video gaming as a whole. Sakurai himself cites John Carmack, the developer of DOOM, as "the Father of the FPS genre" in an interview as the only American developer alongside prominent Japanese developers like Yoko Taro and Hideki Kamiya.
Not many other characters have claims to fame similar to each of these (minus Ryu), and I left out other arguments such as historical significance (except in the case of DOOM, wherein it provides important context as to why Doom Guy is a popular character; the character's popularity is tied to their game, similar to Steve and Minecraft) that act in favor of these characters and against other popular picks.

Each character has solid reasons to be included and are well liked by many people. You've seen the reactions to Joker. Japan would react similarly to Erdrick despite mixed reception in the West, Ryu would be received similar to Simon, and the internet would legitimately break over Steve and Doom Guy. These are the reactions Nintendo want to market their DLC, and the reactions would certainly be more prominent and have more net positive gain for Nintendo than those if characters like Banjo & Kazooie, Bandana Dee, and Geno took their places.
 
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FunAtParties

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Does it have no basis though?

Sure, Robertman2 Robertman2 is blunt with his points and disregards opposing arguments. That being said, I would argue that his point is correct, albiet the way he delivered it could have been more effective. Taking a look at the 5chan leak:

  • Joker is the protagonist of a modern JRPG masterpiece. Persona 5 revitalized the JRPG market in the West, and was able to contend with the heavy hitters in 2017 like Breath of the Wild and Horizon: Zero Dawn for awards and accolades.
  • If you want an argument for Erdrick, I suggest you refer to my Ultimate Square Enix Character Argument (linked in my signature). Essentially, Dragon Quest is a cultural phenomenon akin to Pokémon in Japan, if not more popular
  • If you want an argument for Steve, please refer to my The Case for Minecraft Steve and the Smash Bubble Effect. Essentially, Minecraft is one of the best-selling games of all time, and is a cultural phenomenon worldwide. If you believe that any character can go toe to toe with Steve, and subsequently Minecraft's, popularity you're plain wrong.
  • Ryu Hayabusa is a bit of an oddball third party pick, and I'll concede he's not as popular as other prominent picks. That being said, he pretty much rounds out the "Characters from Classic NES games" crew alongside Mega Man and Simon Belmont. Ninja Gaiden is well remembered as a hallmark of the NES-era, which gives him a solid pass.
  • Similar to Steve and Ryu, DOOM's popularity (both in its classic form and its modern revival) is too noteworthy to pass up. I also don't think you understand the prominence of DOOM to video gaming as a whole. Sakurai himself cites John Carmack, the developer of DOOM, as "the Father of the FPS genre" in an interview as the only American developer alongside prominent Japanese developers like Yoko Taro and Hideki Kamiya.
Not many other characters have claims to fame similar to each of these (minus Ryu), and I left out other arguments such as historical significance (except in the case of DOOM, wherein it provides important context as to why Doom Guy is a popular character; the character's popularity is tied to their game, similar to Steve and Minecraft) that act in favor of these characters and against other popular picks.

Each character has solid reasons to be included and are well liked by many people. You've seen the reactions to Joker. Japan would react similarly to Erdrick despite mixed reception in the West, Ryu would be received similar to Simon, and the internet would legitimately break over Steve and Doom Guy. These are the reactions Nintendo want to market their DLC, and the reactions would certainly be more prominent and have more net positive gain for Nintendo than those if characters like Banjo & Kazooie, Bandana Dee, and Geno took their places.
This doesn't prove anything correct. This is an assumption that the series these characters come from will make them more popular to Smash fans than characters fans were actually supporting. Everything we know about our community right now suggests this is incorrect; Steve has been rumored for a year now, and still is a controversial choice that many don't want AT ALL, let alone more than someone like Banjo, yet I see many point to series sales and act like this point is moot. Even then, I don't see how this proves anything. A quick look on vgchartz tells me Minecraft's sales ON NINTENDO SYSTEMS are less in total than the first Banjo Kazooie game on 64. It's like you all forget they're selling these characters to Nintendo fans, and not crossplatform where most of these characters see the most success. Steve's importance to the people that are actually buying to DLC may very well be lesser than any of the characters you listed.

Still, if the rumored characters are really coming, and the most popular never do, there's also no way to find factual evidence that those choices were more beneficial for Nintendo, because there's nothing to compare. So I say again, this is a definitive statement made with absolutely no basis either way, so stop making it.

It's also funny watching the goalposts continue to move to make whatever Nintendo chooses to throw at us "fair play" and deserving. These rumored characters would've never flied even a couple of years ago. DLC has really lowered the bar for character choices in Smash.

Let me make an additional abstract point. GTA is one one of the most popular, well-regarded video game series EVER. If they grabbed a random protagonist from the series, like Trevor, would y'all still believe this is a better move than adding a "random platforming mascots or d list Nintendo character"? He is more well-known, iconic, and popular overall. Serious question
 
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A quick look on vgchartz tells me Minecraft's sales ON NINTENDO SYSTEMS are less in total than the first Banjo Kazooie game on 64. It's like you all forget they're selling these characters to Nintendo fans, and not crossplatform where most of these characters see the most success. Steve's importance to the people that are actually buying to DLC may very well be lesser than any of the characters you listed.
A quick note but Minecraft made it's way to Nintendo systems after it had already been on most other systems. So it's sales being lower doesn't mean that Nintendo fans don't like Minecraft, just that they likely already had it somewhere else. That said I would argue it's late arrival on Nintendo systems would be a valid argument for why Steve doesn't make sense in a Nintendo game.

It's also funny watching the goalposts continue to move to make whatever Nintendo chooses to throw at us "fair play" and deserving. These rumored characters would've never flied even a couple of years ago
I think this is a valid point but I would argue that there are two sides to this. One, Sakurai himself seems to be moving the goalposts and the Smash community is just trying to find the patterns to the movement. And two, the game itself is evolving. As the game grows to monumental levels it begins to grow beyond simply being a game for Nintendo fans to being a game for gamer fans, and like it or not that appears to be the direction Nintendo wants the game to go (and I'll even say that I don't like it, I am a long time Nintendo fan and would prefer the game remain a celebration of Nintendo).

Let me make an additional abstract point. GTA is one one of the most popular, well-regarded video game series EVER. If they grabbed a random protagonist from the series, like Trevor, would y'all still believe this is a better move than adding a "random platforming mascots or d list Nintendo character"? He is more well-known, iconic, and popular overall. Serious question
I agree that this is another valid point but I would argue that while GTA and Minecraft are both insanely popular, their demographics aren't quite the same. There is way more overlap with Nintendo and Minecraft than there is with Nintendo and GTA. And compared to Doom GTA has never been on a Nintendo console and doesn't have the iconic history that Doom offers (not that I think Doom really fits in Smash super well either).

All in all I think you're making valid points but I think you're coming off as dismissive with the way you present your ideas so people are less willing to entertain them. The best way to get people to listen to your ideas is to show you're willing to listen to theirs.
 

FunAtParties

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All in all I think you're making valid points but I think you're coming off as dismissive with the way you present your ideas so people are less willing to entertain them. The best way to get people to listen to your ideas is to show you're willing to listen to theirs.
I'll keep that in mind. Thanks

Sorry for the edit, I just wanna point a few things. Trevor or any GTA character wasn't meant as a direct comparison to Steve, and more just all of the names involved. As far as audiences go, I'm sure Doom and Ninja Gaiden's demographic wouldn't be that turned off by GTA's way of doing things. Also small correction, but Ballad of Gay Tony was on the DS.
 
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I'll keep that in mind. Thanks

Sorry for the edit, I just wanna point a few things. Trevor or any GTA character wasn't meant as a direct comparison to Steve, and more just all of the names involved. As far as audiences go, I'm sure Doom and Ninja Gaiden's demographic wouldn't be that turned off by GTA's way of doing things. Also small correction, but Ballad of Gay Tony was on the DS.
You mean Chinatown Wars.
 

ryumo

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The fireden one is pretty much the stuff that 4chan regurgitated for a month (basically vergeben said SE rep, Sylux because he was popular at the time, Edelgard for le epic new FE character meme, and banjo/MS rep due to speculation) + a wildcard (joker LOL)
 

ryumo

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why do they fake-leak Sylux but not Porky or Poochy?

I'd check 4chan but I'd rather avoid that place without direct links to leaks.
Its pretty much ****posting central most of the time and these fake leaks are pretty much bandwagoning on speculation. Porky was a popular pick when the whole spirits deconfirm was at its peak, but Joker's reveal pretty much put him in an ASC due to now the idea is that the pass is 3rd party only. And Poochy just became popular due to ****posting as the whole idea of the other characters was seen as ridiculous.
 
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This doesn't prove anything correct. This is an assumption that the series these characters come from will make them more popular to Smash fans than characters fans were actually supporting. Everything we know about our community right now suggests this is incorrect; Steve has been rumored for a year now, and still is a controversial choice that many don't want AT ALL, let alone more than someone like Banjo, yet I see many point to series sales and act like this point is moot. Even then, I don't see how this proves anything. A quick look on vgchartz tells me Minecraft's sales ON NINTENDO SYSTEMS are less in total than the first Banjo Kazooie game on 64. It's like you all forget they're selling these characters to Nintendo fans, and not crossplatform where most of these characters see the most success. Steve's importance to the people that are actually buying to DLC may very well be lesser than any of the characters you listed.

Still, if the rumored characters are really coming, and the most popular never do, there's also no way to find factual evidence that those choices were more beneficial for Nintendo, because there's nothing to compare. So I say again, this is a definitive statement made with absolutely no basis either way, so stop making it.

It's also funny watching the goalposts continue to move to make whatever Nintendo chooses to throw at us "fair play" and deserving. These rumored characters would've never flied even a couple of years ago. DLC has really lowered the bar for character choices in Smash.

Let me make an additional abstract point. GTA is one one of the most popular, well-regarded video game series EVER. If they grabbed a random protagonist from the series, like Trevor, would y'all still believe this is a better move than adding a "random platforming mascots or d list Nintendo character"? He is more well-known, iconic, and popular overall. Serious question
It looks like you didn't refer to my The Case for Minecraft Steve and the "Smash Bubble Effect", because your argument consists almost solely of "these characters are popular within the Smash bubble therefore they are more popular overall," which simply isn't the case. I've pasted the relevant section below:
One of the most prominent arguments against Steve is that he's not a popular choice among fans, with speculators citing fan poll after fan poll to prove this. One GameFAQs user even said of polls like this,
There doesn't need to be a dozen debates about who's popular and who isn't when we have tons of objective data. Popularity isn't an opinion.
Oh GameFAQs how you never cease to amuse me.

All of these polls fall into the same trap of being contained within the "Smash Bubble" as myself and others have coined it. What exactly is the "Smash Bubble" though? If I had to define it, I would as such:
Smash Bubble
noun
The portion of the Super Smash Brothers fandom contained to websites such as Smashboards, GameFAQs, Reddit, 4chan, and other focused websites
While the contribution of these focused fans isn't to be ignored, as evidenced by K. Rool's immense Ballot presence in part due to the Kutthroat's Ballot Campaign and Sakurai's statements on Ridley and Geno, a flaw of the fanbase at large is a general insistence that those within the Smash Bubble are the only Smash Bros. fans and that by not catering to them specifically, Nintendo is making a mistake. This sentiment completely ignores other fanbases outside of the core fanbase which gave us picks such as Isabelle and Simon Belmont.

"But tehponycorn" you say, "Simon was a popular pick! Sakurai even said so himself!" Take a look at the many fan polls listed above and tell me how many Simon prominently appears on. The answer is 3. While 3/12 may seem like modest popularity, his votes total less than 1,000, and he's listed among many other, more popular third party characters. That hardly lines up with Sakurai's statement of Castlevania being "popular in player polls." So, there's a disconnect between what fan polls show and actual popularity? Why is this?

I propose an explanation in two parts:

First, all fan polls by nature fall prey to Voluntary Response Bias, defined as:
In survey sampling, voluntary response bias occurs when sample members are self-selected volunteers, as in voluntary samples. The resulting sample tends to overrepresent individuals who have strong opinions.
Every Smash fan poll cited majorly falls within the Smash Bubble because those within the Smash Bubble are most inclined to vote on polls like these. Granted, even the official Smash Ballot itself falls prey to this, and indeed those within the Smash Bubble would be much more inclined to vote in an official poll like this, but any bias within it is made up for by the Law of Large Numbers, defined as:
The law of large numbers, in probability and statistics, states that as a sample size grows, its mean gets closer to the average of the whole population.
The official nature of the poll and the advertising conducted for it extended the reach of the poll to even casual fans, which is why it's so important to establish this disconnect. The largest, most recent Smash fan poll as of right now is the Reddit Smash Ultimate Tourney randomized poll, with over 50,000 votes. In comparison, the Smash Ballot collected 1.8 million votes (360 times more votes), making it much closer to the wants of the entire Smash Bros. fanbase, hence why picks like Simon Belmont can float by the core fanbase largely undetected.

Second, there exists a strong, silent majority of fans outside of the core fanbase that has sway in character picks. People tend to forget that Nintendo tries to market Smash Bros. for everyone, or at the very least, the largest amount of people possible. It doesn't matter if you're a child whose mom bought him a Switch for Christmas or someone who's been with them since the NES, so long as you're a fan of Nintendo you might as well be considered a part of the Smash Bros. fanbase. Naturally, the wider Nintendo fanbase is largely varied, and outside of the Smash Bubble exists many different demographics with different character desires. This is how we end up with picks like Isabelle, who caters to the larger, more casual fanbase who see Isabelle often.

Returning to the Reddit Smash Ultimate Tourney randomized poll, you'll notice that Sora and Phoenix Wright scored better than they typically do in other fan polls, taking 5th and 8th place respectively, and garnering a total 20,883 votes, equal to around 40% of votes in the final round. This is impressive for two characters usually overlooked within the Smash Bubble in favor of other, more popular speculation picks. The poll includes this interesting fact about them:
The characters with the most brigaders were Sora (more than half his voters came from non-reddit referrers) and Phoenix Wright (a third of his voters came from non-reddit referrers)
If a larger reddit fan poll was able to attract people outside of Reddit's r/SmashBros, then a poll as massive as the official Ballot would be able to attract people from all over, giving a skew towards the silent majority as anyone could vote on it, even people outside of the regular Nintendo or Smash Bros. fanbase.

To make a long story short, there is a silent presence outside of the Smash Bubble. It is large and it is more powerful than many think. While our Smash Bubble is a prominent part of the fanbase, Nintendo has a much wider fanbase to appeal to as well, and the Smash Bubble isn't indicative of Smash Bros. fans in general.
Your argument is confined to the core fanbase and dismissive of any wider viewpoints. Sure, we got some core picks in base (K. Rool, Ridley, Chrom, Dark Samus), but we also got other non-core picks (Simon, Isabelle, Daisy, Incineroar). Sakurai has even stated that Smash has evolved past its Nintendo All-Stars moniker. Whether you like it or not there is more to Smash Bros. character picks than the handful of characters requested by the core fanbase. Simon snuck past the core fanbase thanks to the Ballot, and I wouldn't be surprised if other non-core characters (like Steve and Erdrick) did so as well.

A GTA character would be super cool though. I'd take Trevor with crazy vehicle and rocket attacks over most speculation picks any day of the week.
 
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I’d argue that Banjo is not as popular in the “Smash Bubble” as we think. Outside of Banjo’s support thread, most of this website is against Banjo. I mean, just look at this thread. Also over on the Smash Vault, there was never a custom move set created for Banjo in the miod scene. Sure, there was some reskins, but no full on movesets like there was for many other characters like Ridley and Project M Mewtwo.

Also if you look at sheer posts and wishlists. Banjo does well, but not top three on this website. And this is a dedicated Smash website.

Yet he dominates on polls that more casual players could vote in like reddit.

I then argue that Banjo is popular not in the Smash Bubble, but rather in the general Nintendo Bubble. After all, Banjo is the last true Nintendo icon outside Ryu to not make it into the roster, and with the only reason being legal issues he is not already a player as far back as Melee.
 

ryumo

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I’d argue that Banjo is not as popular in the “Smash Bubble” as we think. Outside of Banjo’s support thread, most of this website is against Banjo. I mean, just look at this thread. Also over on the Smash Vault, there was never a custom move set created for Banjo in the miod scene. Sure, there was some reskins, but no full on movesets like there was for many other characters like Ridley and Project M Mewtwo.

Also if you look at sheer posts and wishlists. Banjo does well, but not top three on this website. And this is a dedicated Smash website.

Yet he dominates on polls that more casual players could vote in like reddit.

I then argue that Banjo is popular not in the Smash Bubble, but rather in the general Nintendo Bubble. After all, Banjo is the last true Nintendo icon outside Ryu to not make it into the roster, and with the only reason being legal issues he is not already a player as far back as Melee.
Banjo is actually relatively well liked here, in the other thread with the rate newcomers he is the most liked character. And from what I see in wants for most people here, he is quite popular.

Want
1. Banjo and Kazooie (70.00%) Day 46: 61.29%

Plus what are you talking about regarding Reddit not being part of the smash bubble? There is a lot of shared userbase between the smash speculation websites, including r/smashbros. You're omitting part of the argument that tehponycorn tehponycorn made above.

You can make an argument that he is popular outside the smash bubble, but reddit polls are not one way to help considering they are part of the bubble. And if we go by the polls in reddit mentioned, currently the only ones that might seem popular outside the smash bubble would be PW and Sora.

I would argue that a better measurement for the character popularity outside the bubble would be amount of fanart, petition for more games, and in general talk about the characters and games outside the smash topic. A few characters here only come up in smash discussions, there's no talk about the games or wanting new games of the series which is a bit sad.
 
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You mean Chinatown Wars.
Yeah that's the one. My bad

It looks like you didn't refer to my The Case for Minecraft Steve and the "Smash Bubble Effect", because your argument consists almost solely of "these characters are popular within the Smash bubble therefore they are more popular overall," which simply isn't the case. I've pasted the relevant section below:
One of the most prominent arguments against Steve is that he's not a popular choice among fans, with speculators citing fan poll after fan poll to prove this. One GameFAQs user even said of polls like this,

Oh GameFAQs how you never cease to amuse me.

All of these polls fall into the same trap of being contained within the "Smash Bubble" as myself and others have coined it. What exactly is the "Smash Bubble" though? If I had to define it, I would as such:


While the contribution of these focused fans isn't to be ignored, as evidenced by K. Rool's immense Ballot presence in part due to the Kutthroat's Ballot Campaign and Sakurai's statements on Ridley and Geno, a flaw of the fanbase at large is a general insistence that those within the Smash Bubble are the only Smash Bros. fans and that by not catering to them specifically, Nintendo is making a mistake. This sentiment completely ignores other fanbases outside of the core fanbase which gave us picks such as Isabelle and Simon Belmont.

"But tehponycorn" you say, "Simon was a popular pick! Sakurai even said so himself!" Take a look at the many fan polls listed above and tell me how many Simon prominently appears on. The answer is 3. While 3/12 may seem like modest popularity, his votes total less than 1,000, and he's listed among many other, more popular third party characters. That hardly lines up with Sakurai's statement of Castlevania being "popular in player polls." So, there's a disconnect between what fan polls show and actual popularity? Why is this?

I propose an explanation in two parts:

First, all fan polls by nature fall prey to Voluntary Response Bias, defined as:

Every Smash fan poll cited majorly falls within the Smash Bubble because those within the Smash Bubble are most inclined to vote on polls like these. Granted, even the official Smash Ballot itself falls prey to this, and indeed those within the Smash Bubble would be much more inclined to vote in an official poll like this, but any bias within it is made up for by the Law of Large Numbers, defined as:

The official nature of the poll and the advertising conducted for it extended the reach of the poll to even casual fans, which is why it's so important to establish this disconnect. The largest, most recent Smash fan poll as of right now is the Reddit Smash Ultimate Tourney randomized poll, with over 50,000 votes. In comparison, the Smash Ballot collected 1.8 million votes (360 times more votes), making it much closer to the wants of the entire Smash Bros. fanbase, hence why picks like Simon Belmont can float by the core fanbase largely undetected.

Second, there exists a strong, silent majority of fans outside of the core fanbase that has sway in character picks. People tend to forget that Nintendo tries to market Smash Bros. for everyone, or at the very least, the largest amount of people possible. It doesn't matter if you're a child whose mom bought him a Switch for Christmas or someone who's been with them since the NES, so long as you're a fan of Nintendo you might as well be considered a part of the Smash Bros. fanbase. Naturally, the wider Nintendo fanbase is largely varied, and outside of the Smash Bubble exists many different demographics with different character desires. This is how we end up with picks like Isabelle, who caters to the larger, more casual fanbase who see Isabelle often.

Returning to the Reddit Smash Ultimate Tourney randomized poll, you'll notice that Sora and Phoenix Wright scored better than they typically do in other fan polls, taking 5th and 8th place respectively, and garnering a total 20,883 votes, equal to around 40% of votes in the final round. This is impressive for two characters usually overlooked within the Smash Bubble in favor of other, more popular speculation picks. The poll includes this interesting fact about them:

If a larger reddit fan poll was able to attract people outside of Reddit's r/SmashBros, then a poll as massive as the official Ballot would be able to attract people from all over, giving a skew towards the silent majority as anyone could vote on it, even people outside of the regular Nintendo or Smash Bros. fanbase.

To make a long story short, there is a silent presence outside of the Smash Bubble. It is large and it is more powerful than many think. While our Smash Bubble is a prominent part of the fanbase, Nintendo has a much wider fanbase to appeal to as well, and the Smash Bubble isn't indicative of Smash Bros. fans in general.
Your argument is confined to the core fanbase and dismissive of any wider viewpoints. Sure, we got some core picks in base (K. Rool, Ridley, Chrom, Dark Samus), but we also got other non-core picks (Simon, Isabelle, Daisy, Incineroar). Sakurai has even stated that Smash has evolved past its Nintendo All-Stars moniker. Whether you like it or not there is more to Smash Bros. character picks than the handful of characters requested by the core fanbase. Simon snuck past the core fanbase thanks to the Ballot, and I wouldn't be surprised if other non-core characters (like Steve and Erdrick) did so as well.

A GTA character would be super cool though. I'd take Trevor with crazy vehicle and rocket attacks over most speculation picks any day of the week.
I read your Smash Bubble blurb when you first said it, and I'm pretty sure I let you know I disagreed with it even back then, but if not let me say it now.

Just one thing I wanna say is people that discussed this every day back in smash 4 DLC were well aware Simon was popular. He did well on that massive poll on SG, and had a nice following here. No one thought he was top 10 popular or anything, but then again saying the Smash Ballots helped Sakurai pick him doesnt prove that he was anyway.

I would type more stuff, but on mobile this site is a nightmare.

Agree to disagree on GTA characters, but I guess I see where y'all stand on it
 
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