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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Plank08

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 6, 2019
Messages
1,278
Location
Sackboy enthusiast
Persona was also a spinoff of Shin Megami Tensei, a series with a large presence with Nintendo. Final Fantasy at first was a Nintendo franchise before it switched over to Sony.
Yeah but Joker only has references to persona and doesn’t acknowledge SMT at all, and Cloud only focuses on FF7, which when cloud came out was a PS1 exclusive, so I don’t think it matters if you have a presence at Nintendo.
Sackboy for smash
 

Dinoman96

Smash Master
Joined
Sep 22, 2013
Messages
3,339
So over the past few days, I did a little…something.

Basically, I looked at the forums for Ultimate and previous installments here on Smashboards to look and tally what characters are/were getting the most discussion.

https://smashboards.com/forums/newcomer-speculation.584/

https://smashboards.com/forums/character-discussion.291/

https://smashboards.com/forums/brawl-character-discussion.118/

Some notes before I post the results:

-I’m only counting the threads that were, at the time, about newcomers. So you won’t be seeing the Snake and Wolf support threads for Smash 4.

-The way I tallied the characters that actually got confirmed works a bit differently. For example, Sonic’s initial Brawl thread in total has 390 pages, but I only counted the first 215 pages, as that was the page when he got announced back in October 2007. I did this because I wanted to show where some of these characters were back then they were speculated/rumored characters like the rest of them.

So, without further ado…

Brawl


-It’s kinda crazy to think that there was a point in time where Krystal was actually a highly requested/speculated character on the same level as Ridley, Mega Man, Geno, etc.

-Speaking of which, as you can plainly see, Geno reigns supreme in this era, having more pages in his thread than even Ridley.

-Ashley had a notable following even back in 2008!

-Although dwarfed by Krystal, Wolf was also a pretty popular discussion. It feels kinda like the opposite of K. Rool and Dixie, whereas in this case the villain/antagonist was overshadowed by the gurl character.

-Wah

-Yes, Masked Man was kind of popular in the Brawl era. It’s really weird.

-Isaac and K. Rool were surprisingly not that big during this period. Isaac only had about 50 pages IIRC and K. Rool only around 27.

Smash 4



-In this era, you can see that characters like Geno and Krystal had declined in popularity. The latter still had some noticeable presence with over 300 pages, but poor ol’ Geno couldn’t even crack 100 in his thread.

-The two lizard kings rule supreme in this era. Here’s a fun fact: Ridley’s thread was actually closed in October 2014, and yet he still has by far the most pages of any Smash 4 candidate. Not even K. Rool got anywhere close to him.

-In general, there’s a lot more discussions about these characters going on than in the Brawl era. For example, Ridley has thousands upon thousands of pages in his Smash 4 thread, while his Brawl thread had only a little over 400.

-Yes, Bandana Dee somehow basically became the gatekeeper between the lizard kings and the peasants, boasting over 700 pages to his name.

-Out of all the characters that made it into the game, Shulk seemed to be the most popular, with over 400 pages in his thread prior to his announcement.

-Yes, Daisy had 200 pages in her thread. Let us never speak of this again

Ultimate



-Geno rules supreme once again, baby. That interview with Sakurai back in 2016, where he admitted that he wanted to make Geno playable in Smash prior, is pretty much what brought the character back into the limelight, after being on the decline for most of Smash 4’s duration.

-Right under him is Isaac, who, despite being hard deconfirmed as an assist trophy at around 742 pages, still has had quite a bit of discussion since then, almost nearing 1000 pages.

-Shantae has over 800 pages in her thread. I don’t know.

-Banjo & Kazooie make their first notable appearance, with over 600 pages of discussion before they were announced back at E3 this year. I imagine the continued collaborations between Nintendo and Microsoft (Minecraft crossplay, Cuphead, etc) and that other highly requested Rare character making it in is what helped really fan the flames with these two.

-There’s Ashley again. She was deconfirmed as an AT around page 148, but she’s still had a little extra bit of discussion since then, almost nearing 200 pages.

-Sup Elma

Some final notes:

-It would seem that, prior to his confirmation in Ultimate, Ridley remained the only consistently big (no pun intended) character around these forums. K. Rool didn’t really make noise until Smash 4, Geno had declined in popularity for most of Smash 4, and Banjo & Kazooie were pretty much just LOL until Phil Spencer gave us his blessings and when K. Rool got announced.

-It goes without saying that the longer a character goes without being announced, the longer their support thread will be. For example, Mega Man was one of the biggest characters during Brawl, and yet he’s absent from the Smash 4 image, obviously because he had the honor of being one of the very first characters announced. Same thing with Ridley and Ultimate.
 
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MyDude213

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 1, 2018
Messages
357
Watch it be Gordon Freeman, color theory, rumored Nintendo collaboration, Sakurai is a Half-Life fan, and all that. Some people would be angry with his inclusion (and i'll be extremely happy):

https://twitter.com/Nibellion/status/1196395995388661760
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pM5CknLC1M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8KJsG91Bno
https://www.sourcegaming.info/2017/07/12/feelofamericangames/ (This one is important)
https://i.imgur.com/CstmN1a.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1tYzeuMIyE
https://twitter.com/valvesoftware/status/1196566870360387584
https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/18...ces-half-life-alyx-its-first-flagship-vr-game
https://www.pcmag.com/news/372041/half-life-game-series-will-finally-return-with-vr-based-proj
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwF2SxayCnE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrzc5pERSsc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUUgqkyvy50
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-Life_(series)#

Gordon Freeman's moveset draft:
https://i.imgur.com/7P0Tpfa.jpg

"I’m not one to follow these types of games particularly close but even I’ve been looking forward to Half-Life 2’s launch. This is the kind of game you upgrade your computer and graphics card for so you can really take in the visuals and environments. It’s that good.

I was especially impressed when I started playing Half-Life 2. My jaw hit the floor. I couldn’t look away from my monitor, it looked so good, and it’s great how they implemented the physics system. ‘Was this the next generation of gaming?’ I thought to myself. I couldn’t believe we were going to be getting this high a level of games in the future." - Originally published in Famitsu, Vol. 84.85, 24 December 2004
My biggest issue with Gordon Freeman as a character is less his legacy as a gaming icon and more the fact that Half Life has literally ZERO history with Nintendo. If he were added he'd 1000% need to be revealed alongside a game reveal in my opinion. I'd personally be cool with Gordon but I do feel his lack of Nintendo history does knock him down a few pegs in terms of realization. But now if he does come and he doesn't come with a game announcement for the Switch. I'd more excited for the possibility of other possible characters with no Nintendo history showing up. Like Sly Cooper, Ratchet and Clank, Jak and Daxter, Master Chief, and Claptrap the list goes on.
 

Eldrake

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 5, 2008
Messages
1,281
The Half-Life: Tactics rumors makes me think that if it's real (Tyler McVicker was right about Half-Life VR, so maybe), then Nintendo most likely find value in the Half-Life IP.
 
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Morning Raven

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jun 9, 2019
Messages
178
Are you suggesting that Shantae has anywhere near even half the notability that Half-Life does?
Notability? Of course not. I know an indie from a AAA franchise. I'm just having fun. Its amusing how people write off a character (even though the comment was comparing them to Geno's scenario). Besides, I'm one who much rather see Doom Soldier, or Master Chief even if I hate fps because I know how big of a deal they are. Even if I prefer a Res Evil rep or Sora. (And Lara Croft)

Plus it'd be funny to see Cortana somehow appear on a Halo stage or something because she shares the same voice as Princess Peach.

I just want that GlaDOS spirit. And a battle remix of Still Alive....
Yes. Yes please. All the Portal gimmicks would be much more fun of a moveset too. Test platforms and goo along with portals and item chucking.
 

Seanapotamus

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 9, 2019
Messages
494
Location
United States
I figured this was fake. The Monsun guy was basically piggybacking as there was already leaks on Half Life: Alyx before that and basically threw "Gordon Freeman in Smash" to get more attention. Basically the "Dante in Smash" rumor last year where one person got DMC5 info correct but then threw Smash info in there. Basically, anyone can throw in something about Smash in a rumor.

This is why I always stick to my intuition lmao.

Although I must say this makes me feel like at this rate we’re so desperate to find out who FP5 is that we’ll talk about ANYONE.
Watch someone make a very convincing leak on the player character from an old Atari game called "Adventure" being in Smash. It did have the first easter egg after all. Now that'll start a discussion!
Adventure-1980-Atari_47.png
 
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Calamitas

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
2,689
Location
Germany
Bro why are y’all talking all this about Papagenos like he’s not here?? smh
I'm pretty sure that he has a thick enough skin to not be bothered by a few people in one thread on here saying that they don't like him that much.
 

MasterOfKnees

Space Pirate
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
Messages
8,579
Location
Denmark
NNID
KneeMaster
Switch FC
SW-6310-1174-0352
So over the past few days, I did a little…something.

Basically, I looked at the forums for Ultimate and previous installments here on Smashboards to look and tally what characters are/were getting the most discussion.

https://smashboards.com/forums/newcomer-speculation.584/

https://smashboards.com/forums/character-discussion.291/

https://smashboards.com/forums/brawl-character-discussion.118/

Some notes before I post the results:

-I’m only counting the threads that were, at the time, about newcomers. So you won’t be seeing the Snake and Wolf support threads for Smash 4.

-The way I tallied the characters that actually got confirmed works a bit differently. For example, Sonic’s initial Brawl thread in total has 390 pages, but I only counted the first 215 pages, as that was the page when he got announced back in October 2007. I did this because I wanted to show where some of these characters were back then they were speculated/rumored characters like the rest of them.

So, without further ado…

Brawl

-snip-

-It’s kinda crazy to think that there was a point in time where Krystal was actually a highly requested/speculated character on the same level as Ridley, Mega Man, Geno, etc.

-Speaking of which, as you can plainly see, Geno reigns supreme in this era, having more pages in his thread than even Ridley.

-Ashley had a notable following even back in 2008!

-Although dwarfed by Krystal, Wolf was also a pretty popular discussion. It feels kinda like the opposite of K. Rool and Dixie, whereas in this case the villain/antagonist was overshadowed by the gurl character.

-Wah

-Yes, Masked Man was kind of popular in the Brawl era. It’s really weird.

-Isaac and K. Rool were surprisingly not that big during this period. Isaac only had about 50 pages IIRC and K. Rool only around 27.

Smash 4

-snip-

-In this era, you can see that characters like Geno and Krystal had declined in popularity. The latter still had some noticeable presence with over 300 pages, but poor ol’ Geno couldn’t even crack 100 in his thread.

-The two lizard kings rule supreme in this era. Here’s a fun fact: Ridley’s thread was actually closed in October 2014, and yet he still has by far the most pages of any Smash 4 candidate. Not even K. Rool got anywhere close to him.

-In general, there’s a lot more discussions about these characters going on than in the Brawl era. For example, Ridley has thousands upon thousands of pages in his Smash 4 thread, while his Brawl thread had only a little over 400.

-Yes, Bandana Dee somehow basically became the gatekeeper between the lizard kings and the peasants, boasting over 700 pages to his name.

-Out of all the characters that made it into the game, Shulk seemed to be the most popular, with over 400 pages in his thread prior to his announcement.

-Yes, Daisy had over 200 pages in her thread. Let us never speak of this again

Ultimate

-snip-

-Geno rules supreme once again, baby. That interview with Sakurai back in 2016, where he admitted that he wanted to make Geno playable in Smash prior, is pretty much what brought the character back into the limelight, after being on the decline for most of Smash 4’s duration.

-Right under him is Isaac, who, despite being hard deconfirmed as an assist trophy at around 742 pages, still has had quite a bit of discussion since then, almost nearing 1000 pages.

-Shantae has over 800 pages in her thread. I don’t know.

-Banjo & Kazooie make their first notable appearance, with over 600 pages of discussion before they were announced back at E3 this year. I imagine the continued collaborations between Nintendo and Microsoft (Minecraft crossplay, Cuphead, etc) and that other highly requested Rare character making it in is what helped really fan the flames with these two.

-There’s Ashley again. She was deconfirmed as an AT around page 148, but she’s still had a little extra bit of discussion since then, almost nearing 200 pages.

-Sup Elma

Some final notes:

-It would seem that, prior to his confirmation in Ultimate, Ridley remained the only consistently big (no pun intended) character around these forums. K. Rool didn’t really make noise until Smash 4, Geno had declined in popularity for most of Smash 4, and Banjo & Kazooie were pretty much just LOL until Phil Spencer gave us his blessings and when K. Rool got announced.

-It goes without saying that the longer a character isn’t announced, the longer their support thread will be. For example, Mega Man was one of the biggest characters during Brawl, and yet he’s absent from the Smash 4 image, obviously because he had the honor of being one of the very first characters announced. Same thing with Ridley and Ultimate.
This is really cool, thanks a lot for putting it together.

I tend to see a lot of people grouping Banjo with Ridley and K. Rool, which I've never felt was accurate. The thing that set Ridley, K. Rool (and Geno) apart is their longevity and the continued discussions surrounding them, and Banjo really wasn't discussed often prior to Ultimate, he has a lot more in common with Cloud, who was also seen as a really cool but impossible idea. Phil Spencer's comments, as well as the leaks, at least got the conversation going around Banjo, which never happened with Cloud as he came completely out of nowhere, but in terms of being a big presence in Smash speculation, Banjo was nowhere near Ridley and K. Rool, as can be seen here. Not hating on Banjo mind you, he's easily my favorite DLC character, and his inclusion was really heartwarming and got me to play the original game, but it has been irking me a bit how some people have been spreading misinformation about his history in Smash speculation.

The discussion around Ridley actually continued past his thread's closure, but it did so in the old Groups section of the site, and when that was removed, so were the threads. It would have been neat if we could have added that tally to this, it wasn't massive as you had to be invited to the group, and it was more of a social thread as there obviously wasn't a lot to talk about as far as his future in Smash 4 was concerned, but it could still have given us the full picture.

Also, Daisy's threads have always been really weird, they were quite active, but it was almost always the same 4 or 5 people.
 
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SKX31

Smash Master
Joined
Feb 22, 2019
Messages
3,462
Location
Sweden
The Half-Life: Tactics rumors makes me think that if it's real (Tyler McVicker was right about Half-Life VR, so maybe), then Nintendo most likely find value in the Half-Life IP.
We shouldn't forget that Auto Chess (A Dota 2 map that became a standalone game after its devs amiaciably split from Valve) is confirmed to come to the Switch next year. Sure. it's not Valve (Drodo Studios, Chinese FTR), but Nintendo's probably well aware what Auto Chess started off as.

This is really cool, thanks a lot for putting it together.

I tend to see a lot of people grouping Banjo with Ridley and K. Rool, which I've never felt was accurate. The thing that set Ridley, K. Rool (and Geno) apart is their longevity and the continued discussions surrounding them, and Banjo really wasn't discussed often prior to Ultimate, he has a lot more in common with Cloud, who was also seen as a really cool idea, but was considered impossible. Phil Spencer's comments, as well as the leaks, at least got the conversation going around Banjo, which never happened with Cloud as he came completely out of nowhere, but in terms of being a big presence in Smash speculation, Banjo was nowhere near Ridley and K. Rool, as can be seen here. Not hating on Banjo mind you, he's easily my favorite DLC character and his inclusion was really heartwarming, but it has been irking me a bit how some people have been spreading misinformation about his history in Smash speculation.

When it comes to Geno, I wouldn't be surprised if his dip during Smash 4 happened because he wasn't included in Brawl. And while his resurgence in Ultimate's speculation circles happened primarily because of Sakurai's comments I wouldn't be surprised if Paper Mario's recent stumbles also played a part in reigniting the Geno thread. It's SMRPG's spiritual successor series, after all.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Anyways... Yeah... Gordon Freeman. The leak is cake, but dunno if I would completely rule out Gordon Freeman... Why? Because is a videogame icon of which Sakurai is greatly aware of and let's face it. If we get in the game awards a double reveal of half life 3 AND Gordon is smash..... There is literally no topping that ever....
The leak is cake
I see what you did there.



Anyways, if Monsun's plan was to bait PapaGenos into making a video about his fake leak and then tell Sabi of all people that it's fake and not to tell anyone else, that was a real dumb part on his behalf. Unless Sabi's source said Gordon isn't FP5 or actually caught Monsun saying things that didn't add up, the dude could've probably gotten away with it if he just kept his mouth shut. I'm not saying that he should be baiting people with fake leaks, but if you're trying to convince people that your fake leak is real for the time being, telling the truth would be the last thing you should do.

Whether if Gordon Freeman is in Smash or not, I do have a bit of interest in Half Life getting in Smash over Halo now. The thing that intrigues me the most is if Sakurai thinks he could make it work since Gordon, while having weapons like the gravity gun and a crowbar, isn't a flashy character, and 1 of the biggest appeals to Half Life was the source engine and its physics (or at least that's how I remembered it).
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
We shouldn't forget that Auto Chess (A Dota 2 map that became a standalone game after its devs amiaciably split from Valve) is confirmed to come to the Switch next year. Sure. it's not Valve (Drodo Studios, Chinese FTR), but Nintendo's probably well aware what Auto Chess started off as.
When was this? I looked it up and only saw a rumor for Underlords and nothing in regards to the other two.
 

Wunderwaft

Smash Master
Joined
Mar 21, 2019
Messages
3,499
So over the past few days, I did a little…something.

Basically, I looked at the forums for Ultimate and previous installments here on Smashboards to look and tally what characters are/were getting the most discussion.

https://smashboards.com/forums/newcomer-speculation.584/

https://smashboards.com/forums/character-discussion.291/

https://smashboards.com/forums/brawl-character-discussion.118/

Some notes before I post the results:

-I’m only counting the threads that were, at the time, about newcomers. So you won’t be seeing the Snake and Wolf support threads for Smash 4.

-The way I tallied the characters that actually got confirmed works a bit differently. For example, Sonic’s initial Brawl thread in total has 390 pages, but I only counted the first 215 pages, as that was the page when he got announced back in October 2007. I did this because I wanted to show where some of these characters were back then they were speculated/rumored characters like the rest of them.

So, without further ado…

Brawl


-It’s kinda crazy to think that there was a point in time where Krystal was actually a highly requested/speculated character on the same level as Ridley, Mega Man, Geno, etc.

-Speaking of which, as you can plainly see, Geno reigns supreme in this era, having more pages in his thread than even Ridley.

-Ashley had a notable following even back in 2008!

-Although dwarfed by Krystal, Wolf was also a pretty popular discussion. It feels kinda like the opposite of K. Rool and Dixie, whereas in this case the villain/antagonist was overshadowed by the gurl character.

-Wah

-Yes, Masked Man was kind of popular in the Brawl era. It’s really weird.

-Isaac and K. Rool were surprisingly not that big during this period. Isaac only had about 50 pages IIRC and K. Rool only around 27.

Smash 4



-In this era, you can see that characters like Geno and Krystal had declined in popularity. The latter still had some noticeable presence with over 300 pages, but poor ol’ Geno couldn’t even crack 100 in his thread.

-The two lizard kings rule supreme in this era. Here’s a fun fact: Ridley’s thread was actually closed in October 2014, and yet he still has by far the most pages of any Smash 4 candidate. Not even K. Rool got anywhere close to him.

-In general, there’s a lot more discussions about these characters going on than in the Brawl era. For example, Ridley has thousands upon thousands of pages in his Smash 4 thread, while his Brawl thread had only a little over 400.

-Yes, Bandana Dee somehow basically became the gatekeeper between the lizard kings and the peasants, boasting over 700 pages to his name.

-Out of all the characters that made it into the game, Shulk seemed to be the most popular, with over 400 pages in his thread prior to his announcement.

-Yes, Daisy had 200 pages in her thread. Let us never speak of this again

Ultimate



-Geno rules supreme once again, baby. That interview with Sakurai back in 2016, where he admitted that he wanted to make Geno playable in Smash prior, is pretty much what brought the character back into the limelight, after being on the decline for most of Smash 4’s duration.

-Right under him is Isaac, who, despite being hard deconfirmed as an assist trophy at around 742 pages, still has had quite a bit of discussion since then, almost nearing 1000 pages.

-Shantae has over 800 pages in her thread. I don’t know.

-Banjo & Kazooie make their first notable appearance, with over 600 pages of discussion before they were announced back at E3 this year. I imagine the continued collaborations between Nintendo and Microsoft (Minecraft crossplay, Cuphead, etc) and that other highly requested Rare character making it in is what helped really fan the flames with these two.

-There’s Ashley again. She was deconfirmed as an AT around page 148, but she’s still had a little extra bit of discussion since then, almost nearing 200 pages.

-Sup Elma

Some final notes:

-It would seem that, prior to his confirmation in Ultimate, Ridley remained the only consistently big (no pun intended) character around these forums. K. Rool didn’t really make noise until Smash 4, Geno had declined in popularity for most of Smash 4, and Banjo & Kazooie were pretty much just LOL until Phil Spencer gave us his blessings and when K. Rool got announced.

-It goes without saying that the longer a character goes without being announced, the longer their support thread will be. For example, Mega Man was one of the biggest characters during Brawl, and yet he’s absent from the Smash 4 image, obviously because he had the honor of being one of the very first characters announced. Same thing with Ridley and Ultimate.
That's really cool of you to compile this, well done!

One thing I want to mention about Smash 4's cycle is that Waluigi and Ashley were one of the first assist trophies shown, which is why discussion for them is dead and low compared to everyone else. This seems very obvious to point out, but if a character is disconfirmed then discussion for them grinds to a halt. It's why Waluigi doesn't appear in Ultimate's list despite his popularity reaching it's peak during this speculation cycle.
 

Guybrush20X6

Creator of Lego Theory
Joined
May 22, 2012
Messages
15,882
NNID
Guybrush20X6
3DS FC
4253-3477-4804
Switch FC
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Even if Half Life itself has had no history on Nintendo outside of Portal, I remember when a game having a physics engine was such a big deal. I even remember there being some excitment about Brawl using Havok (even if that didn't amount to much)
 

Plank08

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 6, 2019
Messages
1,278
Location
Sackboy enthusiast
So over the past few days, I did a little…something.

Basically, I looked at the forums for Ultimate and previous installments here on Smashboards to look and tally what characters are/were getting the most discussion.

https://smashboards.com/forums/newcomer-speculation.584/

https://smashboards.com/forums/character-discussion.291/

https://smashboards.com/forums/brawl-character-discussion.118/

Some notes before I post the results:

-I’m only counting the threads that were, at the time, about newcomers. So you won’t be seeing the Snake and Wolf support threads for Smash 4.

-The way I tallied the characters that actually got confirmed works a bit differently. For example, Sonic’s initial Brawl thread in total has 390 pages, but I only counted the first 215 pages, as that was the page when he got announced back in October 2007. I did this because I wanted to show where some of these characters were back then they were speculated/rumored characters like the rest of them.

So, without further ado…

Brawl


-It’s kinda crazy to think that there was a point in time where Krystal was actually a highly requested/speculated character on the same level as Ridley, Mega Man, Geno, etc.

-Speaking of which, as you can plainly see, Geno reigns supreme in this era, having more pages in his thread than even Ridley.

-Ashley had a notable following even back in 2008!

-Although dwarfed by Krystal, Wolf was also a pretty popular discussion. It feels kinda like the opposite of K. Rool and Dixie, whereas in this case the villain/antagonist was overshadowed by the gurl character.

-Wah

-Yes, Masked Man was kind of popular in the Brawl era. It’s really weird.

-Isaac and K. Rool were surprisingly not that big during this period. Isaac only had about 50 pages IIRC and K. Rool only around 27.

Smash 4



-In this era, you can see that characters like Geno and Krystal had declined in popularity. The latter still had some noticeable presence with over 300 pages, but poor ol’ Geno couldn’t even crack 100 in his thread.

-The two lizard kings rule supreme in this era. Here’s a fun fact: Ridley’s thread was actually closed in October 2014, and yet he still has by far the most pages of any Smash 4 candidate. Not even K. Rool got anywhere close to him.

-In general, there’s a lot more discussions about these characters going on than in the Brawl era. For example, Ridley has thousands upon thousands of pages in his Smash 4 thread, while his Brawl thread had only a little over 400.

-Yes, Bandana Dee somehow basically became the gatekeeper between the lizard kings and the peasants, boasting over 700 pages to his name.

-Out of all the characters that made it into the game, Shulk seemed to be the most popular, with over 400 pages in his thread prior to his announcement.

-Yes, Daisy had 200 pages in her thread. Let us never speak of this again

Ultimate



-Geno rules supreme once again, baby. That interview with Sakurai back in 2016, where he admitted that he wanted to make Geno playable in Smash prior, is pretty much what brought the character back into the limelight, after being on the decline for most of Smash 4’s duration.

-Right under him is Isaac, who, despite being hard deconfirmed as an assist trophy at around 742 pages, still has had quite a bit of discussion since then, almost nearing 1000 pages.

-Shantae has over 800 pages in her thread. I don’t know.

-Banjo & Kazooie make their first notable appearance, with over 600 pages of discussion before they were announced back at E3 this year. I imagine the continued collaborations between Nintendo and Microsoft (Minecraft crossplay, Cuphead, etc) and that other highly requested Rare character making it in is what helped really fan the flames with these two.

-There’s Ashley again. She was deconfirmed as an AT around page 148, but she’s still had a little extra bit of discussion since then, almost nearing 200 pages.

-Sup Elma

Some final notes:

-It would seem that, prior to his confirmation in Ultimate, Ridley remained the only consistently big (no pun intended) character around these forums. K. Rool didn’t really make noise until Smash 4, Geno had declined in popularity for most of Smash 4, and Banjo & Kazooie were pretty much just LOL until Phil Spencer gave us his blessings and when K. Rool got announced.

-It goes without saying that the longer a character goes without being announced, the longer their support thread will be. For example, Mega Man was one of the biggest characters during Brawl, and yet he’s absent from the Smash 4 image, obviously because he had the honor of being one of the very first characters announced. Same thing with Ridley and Ultimate.
This got me wondering something...
Out of our 4 Never Evers (Ridley, K Rool, Banjo, and Geno)
Who do you feel overall is the most popular with the smash community?
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
This got me wondering something...
Out of our 4 Never Evers (Ridley, K Rool, Banjo, and Geno)
Who do you feel overall is the most popular with the smash community?
Ridley, without question. Dude's had a consistently large presence since Melee.
Like what was already stated both K. Rool and Banjo picked up steam comparatively recently and Geno had a dip in popularity, but Ridley has always been around, and he was probably the E3 reveal for a reason.
 
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Gamma Ray

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One thing I want to mention about Smash 4's cycle is that Waluigi and Ashley were one of the first assist trophies shown, which is why discussion for them is dead and low compared to everyone else. This seems very obvious to point out, but if a character is disconfirmed then discussion for them grinds to a halt. It's why Waluigi doesn't appear in Ultimate's list despite his popularity reaching it's peak during this speculation cycle.
Yeah I agree, I don't think the amount of posts in a character thread automatically translates to a character's popularity or how requested they are. From just browsing the Geno topic a few times I feel like it's another general speculation thread with an additional focus on Geno sometimes. But it's still interesting to see how big some threads have become.
 

Guybrush20X6

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Kinda depressing to see how far Star Fox has fallen. It got two Gamecube games and DS game before Brawl and then after Command, things slammed to a halt. Since then it got a 3DS remake, a botched WiiU remakemaginingboot, a reskinned tech demo and the reason that the Switch version of Starlink did the best. (you'd think between that and Soul Calibur 2 more companies would try to get Nintendo cameo going.)
 

SKX31

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When was this? I looked it up and only saw a rumor for Underlords and nothing in regards to the other two.
Here.

The rumor (which I honestly really wanted to believe) confused "Switch" with Underlords' crossplay function (which is "Start a game on your computer or phone, finish it on the other platform without any hiccups!") I really think Underlords could be a great fit for the Switch because of that feature. Even if it might only have a few realistic uses (like when one device is really low on battery).
 
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EricTheGamerman

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I wasn't refering to extremely obscure characters; even just some secondary characters such as Tingle in Zelda, or characters from franchises that aren't Zelda or Mario (like someone mentioned, Rhythm Heaven for example).

Captain Falcon was an obscure character back in N64 (even though F-Zero was popular enough, the character wasn't that famous), and Ness was obscure as well; Jigglypuff was not much important in the Pokèmon games, though it's in Smash 64 regardless; 3 out of 12 is a lot.

Melee added the Fire Emblem characters, Game & Watch, Sheik, Mewtwo (popular among fans but still a secondary character), Ice Climbers Pichu and Dr Mario (even if those last two were clones).

Brawl added all the main cast from Kirby (MK and Dedede), Wario, Lucas, Pit (retro character at the time), Wolf, Olimar, Diddy Kong, and Zero Suit Samus.

Smash 4 added some new franchises and unexpected characters, including Duck Hunt, and Wii Fit, that while it was very popular, nobody would have thought that the trainer of that game could have become a fighter; and the Koopalings, and Bowser Jr, and even Rosalina to an extent, who aside of party games, was pretty much just an NPC in one game. Add Shulk to the list if you want, depending on how you consider Xenoblade to Nintendo. Does Palutena count too? Am I forgetting someone? (dark pit is a low effort clone)

Now, most of those characters would have little to no chance if they were not introduced already, because the focus is on third parties.
Not only they didn't add Arms characters (their new franchise), they still didn't add any Rhythm Heaven character, they didn't add any character from the Zelda franchise despite being still full of very requested characters, they didn't add any Kirby characters, they didn't even add Dixie Kong, who's a pretty major character in her franchise. And more, those are just examples; Where is Krystal, where is a Wario Ware character? Where is Chibi Robo? etc.
They added K Rool only because the fans made a big noise, and Piranha plant, that's the only exception. Other than that, only very major characters or promotional/marketing stuff (aside of the echos who are Dark Pit level of low effort); side character/obscure or retro characters "slots" are now taken by third parties instead.

It's not super obscure characters that I'm talking about... it's side characters of popular franchises, or characters from minor franchises but still popular enough.
It's also just a reality that a lot of the support for first parties has collapsed during the Ultimate speculation cycle. Look at any more recent poll, and they're still dominated by third parties because people are just more interested in them (and not because "they're considered more likely," people genuinely support these characters). Nintendo is paying attention to how these things play out in regards to sales and attention, and it's clear that third parties have proved themselves to be successful picks for Smash vs a great deal of the first parties at this point.

Each one of those characters can be analyzed on an individual basis and see why they didn't get into the game, base or DLC:
  • ARMS - An unproven IP at the time the design documents was drafted and a game that largely skated by on being an early Switch title when there was little else to play. It has honestly been comparable to 1-2 Switch in regards of the floor just falling out from under the game and it has proven to be the opposite of an evergreen title for Nintendo. It's not clear if ARMS has much of a future at all even if the game was generally a success during 2017.
  • Rhythm Heaven - The series has never been a huge series for Nintendo and it just doesn't have a massive fan base really pushing for it. It has fans, but nothing to the degree that we see with those big ballot winners like Ridley and King K. Rool. And the series has not managed to show any improvement at all in regards to sales or even public consciousness since the DS release and has generally fallen further and further off the radar.
  • Kirby - It's not clear that Sakurai sees the same need to represent modern Kirby that Kirby fans are determined to see. Sakurai seems more than happy to keep giving Kirby additional content through other means besides characters as well, and it's really doubtful that Sakurai cares about the whole "characters first" mentality that fans are so frequently using in the first place.
  • Zelda - There has never been a consensus in regards to who people want. It has changed significantly with every Smash release, and the only consistent idea that Zelda fans seem to have been able to rally behind was "Ganondorf with a sword." It's clear that organized support campaigns for a single character are far more successful than a generalized "more of this franchise" type push. Again, the Zelda series also got a huge amount of love through other means than playable characters with redesigns, music, one of two franchises to get a brand new stage, etc.
  • Dixie Kong - Fans pushed for King K. Rool by a pretty wide margin, so he was chosen over her. And then they didn't exactly flock back to Dixie Kong after that. She may be a more notable icon in many ways than most other Nintendo characters missing, but the DK fan base doesn't seem to have gravitated towards her in any meaningful ways really.
  • Krystal - Her support collapsed post Brawl and has never been able to recover, nor has she made any appearances since then. It's pretty easy to see why she wasn't included.
  • WarioWare - The series has never had strong support for a character until Ashley got her month of fame in 2018, only to also completely collapse in the wake of the August Direct and her "deconfirmation." WarioWare has also largely become less and less relevant and popular as a series, so that sort of trend isn't going to inspire a new character.
  • Chibi-Robo - Nintendo literally killed him and his series over the course of the past decade lol. And he just doesn't have the fan support to make up for that massive issue either.
The issue is that many of these options just don't have the support they need to be a big enough deal to the community, especially now that third party characters are not only seen as entirely realistic, but the preferred option by much of the fan base. Base Ultimate had extremely limited "slots" for newcomers, and the Nintendo characters occupied 5 of those 6 unique newcomers pushing recent characters and fan demanded ones with a "fun" Piranha Plant DLC later on. Sakurai really did try to give people what they wanted in the major ways base game from the Nintendo side of things within the limits of Ultimate's necessary lower additions. And I think it's especially important to consider the fact that Sakurai doesn't see Smash the same way fans do. He's not committed to the characters "first" mentality and sees all representation as important and relevant.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Dixie Kong, Chibi-Robo, and a Rhythm Heaven character in Smash. They'd be great options if we have to go to first party options for any reason... but it's easy to see why these characters haven't made it in during the Ultimate cycle I think. Kirby I'll give a little more room to as something that could end up with another character, specifically because Bandanna Dee is one of the few first parties to maintain his base in the post Fighter's Pass world and Dixie Kong could also easily see a "bonus character" type situation since she can be based off of Diddy to some extent. I don't think first parties are impossible, I just do think Nintendo has turned their focus largely elsewhere due to the success of third party DLC and for me personally, despite liking several first parties, I'm just less interested in them compared to most third parties that also seem so much more ambitious and I'm just more interested in seeing Smash continue to expand its scope and go out of its way to become this "museum of Japanese gaming."
 

kirbsmash

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Kinda depressing to see how far Star Fox has fallen. It got two Gamecube games and DS game before Brawl and then after Command, things slammed to a halt. Since then it got a 3DS remake, a botched WiiU remakemaginingboot, a reskinned tech demo and the reason that the Switch version of Starlink did the best. (you'd think between that and Soul Calibur 2 more companies would try to get Nintendo cameo going.)
Eh, better than what F-zero is having.
 

Guybrush20X6

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Eh, better than what F-zero is having.
I'll say. It's like Miamoto is embarrassed by it, given how he thought F-Zero GX, what fans hold as the best in the series, didn't do anything interesting. I wonder if he wishes Sakurai didn't slap Captain Falcon's model onto his old Dragon Fighter character.
 

SKX31

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I'll say. It's like Miamoto is embarrassed by it, given how he thought F-Zero GX, what fans hold as the best in the series, didn't do anything interesting. I wonder if he wishes Sakurai didn't slap Captain Falcon's model onto his old Dragon Fighter character.
Miyamoto's always been a "we need new ways to play to justify new games" kind of man. For example, he said so in the Smosh Games interview. And really, that philosophy is the very thing which made Nintendo what it is today (because that philosophy lead to Miyamoto creating Mario, Zelda, Star Fox etc.). And has become Nintendo's overall motto (with exceptions of course). Star Fox Zero, as the video notes, was born out of this desire to innovate on new ways to play. Again, if they can find something new with F-Zero, they'll do so. But the only way I can really see it (as an complete outsider) is something like a F-Zero VR game.

I don't think Miyamoto's bothered by Captain Falcon being repurposed for Smash (and living on that way) though, given his thoughts.
 
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Will

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There was an image of Sabi on Discord saying that Arthur from Ghosts 'n Goblins was going to be Fighter 5. Turns out it was fake.
"Turns out"

I was the first one on this thread to call that **** out the microsecond someone posted it. :nifty:
 

3BitSaurus

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I tend to see a lot of people grouping Banjo with Ridley and K. Rool, which I've never felt was accurate. The thing that set Ridley, K. Rool (and Geno) apart is their longevity and the continued discussions surrounding them, and Banjo really wasn't discussed often prior to Ultimate, he has a lot more in common with Cloud, who was also seen as a really cool idea, but was considered impossible.
I feel like this can be explained with the fact that Banjo and Kazooie were more popular before the Brawl era, when Sakurai made that poll on the Japanese-only website, two and a half years before the Melee release. They did very well in those polls (which is no small feat considering it was Japan-only), but the Rare buyout happened and most people thought it was impossible from the Melee era all the way to the Smash Ballot, which was when we got the first Phil Spencer tweet. Seeing Microsoft be okay with the idea was probably what reignited the requests for the bear and bird.
 
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Will

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I'll say. It's like Miamoto is embarrassed by it, given how he thought F-Zero GX, what fans hold as the best in the series, didn't do anything interesting. I wonder if he wishes Sakurai didn't slap Captain Falcon's model onto his old Dragon Fighter character.
No, Miyamoto just wants F-Zero to have gimmicks in order to make a new game.

Maybe the boomer gamer mentality is that you need gimmicks to make things fresh now. :nifty:
 

Dinoman96

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I feel like if Banjo/Rare got bought out by say, Activision (this almost happened), or at least any company that wasn't a competitor to Nintendo, Banjo & Kazooie would of been top tier character requests since the Brawl era, alongside Mega Man and Sonic.
 
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Will

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I feel like if Banjo/Rare got bought out by say, Activision (this almost happened), or at least any company that wasn't a competitor to Nintendo, Banjo & Kazooie would of been top tier character requests since the Brawl era, alongside Mega Man and Sonic.
You're saying he wasn't a top tier request already?
 

Dinoman96

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You're saying he wasn't a top tier request already?
I mean in that they would of been much, much more vocal and apparant back then.

Banjo literally only had like seven pages in his Brawl support thread.
 

SKX31

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Incredibly frustrating?
Organizational culture and groupthink's one hell of a drug. Especially when the man responsible for that kind of thinking helped shape the company alongside Gunpei Yokoi, Iwata and others. Those guys also thought similarily.

And Miyamoto's passed on that kind of thinking to younger devs like Motokuba (the Mario series' current Director) etc.

So yeah, incredibly frustrating sometimes.

I feel like if Banjo/Rare got bought out by say, Activision (this almost happened), or at least any company that wasn't a competitor to Nintendo, Banjo & Kazooie would of been top tier character requests since the Brawl era, alongside Mega Man and Sonic.
*Looks at Tattoo Crash, which was the current Crash during the Brawl era.*

Nah. Especially not if Banjo-Kazooie got a similar redesign as they already got in Nuts and Bolts. Or Tattoo B-K.
 

3BitSaurus

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We're officially in the last week of November. Whether we get something on the 7th, the 12th or wait until January... we'll probably know in the next few days.

*Looks at Tattoo Crash, which was the current Crash during the Brawl era.*

Nah. Especially not if Banjo-Kazooie got a similar redesign as they already got in Nuts and Bolts. Or Tattoo B-K.
We'd have Banjo-Tattooie.

I am not sorry.
 

SneakyLink

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I mean in that they would of been much, much more vocal and apparant back then.

Banjo literally only had like seven pages in his Brawl support thread.
Then again, that was during the time Nuts and Bolts was being developed so Banjo was a literal pipe dream.
K Rool support probably was less due to a need to get Diddy in the game
 

ProfPeanut

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Banjo support is older than most, and had to contend with the same exclusivity problem that kept the likes of Master Chief out of Smash.

Despite this, and despite the likes of Sonic, Mega Man and Pac-man wrestling their way into wishlists, Banjo still showed up in discussions. Consider how many other third parties were speculation mainstays at the time.
 
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