Since we're posting about how the Geno thread pretty much takes Fatman's words like gospel (most of the time). I'll post my thoughts on him from the Geno thread here. This was to someone who was defending the 4chan Dark Souls DLC prediction "leak":
1) I was literally telling Fatman why I think the Mii leak is fake, this was before Sabi and Fatman started saying that yeah it is most likely fake, or at least not for character 5. This was when he was on the side of it being real, so if it goes to show anything it is that these insiders are definitely not infallible and a lot of their information does come in last minute. When he did change sides, he pretty much used the reasoning that I and many others used. It is most likely fake because Nintendo hasn't taken down the videos.
I'm not denying the guy has connections with insiders, but often times he has showcased that he isn't right. For example, he thought Brave couldn't be Hero due to the wonky datamined stats. Or the whole thing with the bird. If Reimu and KOS-MOS are truly deconfirmed and 100% not happening, Sabi would have no reason to not come out and say that yes they are not happening. Fatmanonice's words are definitely not definitive, and even he himself tells us to take his words with a grain of salt.
Any good speculation should have some good inferences here and there, that is how we get a good idea of who is coming in as DLC. Using speculation and logic, I was able to tell that we were most likely getting Erdrick and Banjo as a double drop on E3, a couple days beforehand. When the SNK logo leaked, it wasn't hard to tell that Terry would be the SNK rep. I was inferring that DLC 5 would be Bandai Namco ever since September and even through the Mii leak, and while FP 5 is not confirmed to be Bandai Namco; look at what the general consensus is.
I'm no insider, but that doesn't change the fact that I was pretty much able to guess which DLC's were coming ahead, just due to the rumours floating around in the internet.
2) Only 2 of those 4 characters go by the title of Erdrick, so yes Hero is a much better name for the character than Erdrick. If this leaker does know all the DLC characters beforehand, he should at least get the name of the 2nd character right. He didn't, and he used the most common name flying around the internet, indicating that this was just a prediction/
3) Yes, I don't doubt that certain 4chan posts are right; many of the posts that are right just happen to be text leaks. However, blindly believing a simple prediction list is a huge problem as it cuts out speculation for the 5th DLC character, and as you can see a ton of the people in this thread are blindly believing this. I don't doubt that there is one obscure 4chan post out there that has had the entirety of the DLC leaked back in December, but we won't know if its true until the 5th character is revealed, and that 4chan post does nothing to convince me it's real.
4) Maybe Fatman does know that DLC 5 is a Dark Souls rep, and isn't speaking up about it for that reason. Or maybe he doesn't know about Dark Souls as DLC 5, and feels like he has nothing to add about it. All I'm saying is that assuming the leak, which is most likely fake, is true, isn't good speculation.
I don't dislike Fatman, in fact I like how open he is with his speculation. But it's just SPECULATION. Sometimes I feel like the Geno thread is honestly the problem, and I say that as someone who wants Geno in. They take his words way too seriously when he's shown to be unreliable at times. I know a ton of people in the Geno thread pretty much think a Dark Souls character is guaranteed because Fatman refuses to speak about Dark Souls.
Also when someone asked Fatman to deconfirm Reimu/KOS-MOS instead of just state that those are characters "/v/ is trying to will into existence", he pretty much ignored the question, take that as you will.
Though I do like the guy, his posts are usually pretty in depth and are actually debatable rather than "BLANK is 100% in".
