Newbie Mafia 12 FMP Fumoffu!: Game over!

[Fynal]

@X1

Also Gova is town.

can you explain this please? I searched this thread and turned up no posts by you on gova's alignment.

also, why do you think it doesn't matter if people think JTB is scummates with swords if JTB is actually town?

 

[Fynal]

EBWOP

turned up no posts on you analyzing Gova's alignment

 

[Seikend]

@Gova when do you think you'll have your post done?

I'll be away from tommorow for a week. I might be able to post over the weekend, but I'll have no internet access from Monday-Thursday.

 

[asianaussie]

because it was probably missed the first time

minor V/LA for approximately 24 hours starting from this post

I will do the analysis X1 requested, but I *need* to study.

 

[Gova]

@Gova: Please give me a read on AA based on these two posts. Scum caught in an awkward lie or genuine town misunderstanding. (post1, post2)

I would have to say "scum caught in an akward lie". With respect to the underlined, apparently your reasons are convincing enough to not find Fynal scummy, but not convincing enough to find him town. It's a clear contradiction imo. Feels like he's trying to get out of mistake by saying he was just stimulating discussion too especially when you consider the bolded, because he lists Gatlin as a scum pick but then later says that there wasn't anything to convince him of either's scumminess. But the problem is, he explained why he thought Gatlin was scummy, so there was something that convinced him.

There is a misunderstanding though, and that's the underlined and bolded section. Well at least I think it is anyways. It's definitely some sort of mistake because he doesn't agree with your read on Fynal because of the post Soren made, making his second point for not agreeing with your read of Fynal entirely invalid.

@X1: What I've said is probably the reasoning of a million mafia newbies who've come before.

I'm not convinced with your decision on Fynal, based on two points.

While it's true that what he says masks intent and move town towards their goal, scum could just as easily do so in order to lower suspicion on them. In this particular instance, assuming that Fynal is scum, what he said has convinced you otherwise. I've seen instances of Fynal posting very intelligently outside of these forums, so it is quite possible he is one of these 'reasonably smart scum' he alludes to.

The other point concerns how early a stage of the game we are in. If you are both going off Blacknight99923's post, a markedly random one, I'm honestly unsure as to how valid any reasoning from such a post is. While his credentials make me consider the possibility of that post having a directed purpose (Researcher status, his avatar), I honestly can't make a real decision at the moment.

That said, Fynal or Gatlin are my picks as scum. You've presented a legitimate case for Fynal not being scum, so I'm going to say that Gatlin is scum. His post was short and almost obligatory. While it was a response to a legitimate question, choosing that post and not engaging the the (at that time) current discussion suggests an unwillingness to type more than he had to, minimising whatever chances one could read scum from his diction, etc. It also caused the post to go under the radar. His low post count suggests that other activity was not the reason for his brief response. Certainly, no further discussion has come concerning him at the moment.
Vote: Gatlin

I didn't actually disagree, I merely said I wasn't convinced by your reasoning, even if that reasoning was sound. Sorry if that was unclear. I can see how badly I worded it.

At that point there were in my opinion only a few candidates who could be considered as scum: Fynal, Gatlin, Sworddancer and yourself, and of those the first two stood out to me, as reasoning for Sworddancer being scum was weak and it was too difficult to read intent from your advice-filled posts. Soren was, as you yourself pointed out, not really a serious pick.

Me pointing at those two was more to stimulate discussion than anything, as there was next to nothing to convince me of either's scumminess. You had already asked for discussion on Fynal, so I decided to press Gatlin a bit more.

I think the intent to discuss went somewhere, it let Gatlin clear his name reasonably (for me, at least, I don't know what anyone else thinks of him right now), even if nothing else really happened.

 

[asianaussie]

I can afford a quick response.

@ Gova, Also, how is there a misunderstanding in that bolded/underlined section? I don't understand your reasoning or even the way you worded at all.

Backtracking a bit, I honestly wasn't convinced with what X1 said, even if it was reasoned. This is he asked whether Soren was scum or not from that one almost nonsensical post. Nobody would agree he was scum just from that, and I feel Fynal's logical reasoning is perfectly normal, and not a town-tell.

At that point, X1's analysis of Fynal's response was a better defence than none - I merely wanted to poke somebody to get some more discussion on different people going, as I have repeatedly said, because there was almost no discussion at that point and working off hypotheses is dumb. X1 had prompted discussion on Fynal anyway, and I already had my belief that Fynal could not be read from that.

The amount of scum-determining evidence that you have at each point in the game varies greatly and is relative, and I had no evidence on Gatlin except for what I regarded as his unwillingness to present evidence in the first place. Likewise, I had similarly little to read from Fynal, barring his intent, which I now see as a probable WIFOM point anyway. Gatlin defended himself and I withdrew that vote, since all I wanted was for him to explain his lack of contribution.

 

[Seikend]

@X1: What I've said is probably the reasoning of a million mafia newbies who've come before.

I'm not convinced with your decision on Fynal, based on two points.

While it's true that what he says masks intent and move town towards their goal, scum could just as easily do so in order to lower suspicion on them. In this particular instance, assuming that Fynal is scum, what he said has convinced you otherwise. I've seen instances of Fynal posting very intelligently outside of these forums, so it is quite possible he is one of these 'reasonably smart scum' he alludes to.

The other point concerns how early a stage of the game we are in. If you are both going off Blacknight99923's post, a markedly random one, I'm honestly unsure as to how valid any reasoning from such a post is. While his credentials make me consider the possibility of that post having a directed purpose (Researcher status, his avatar), I honestly can't make a real decision at the moment.

That said, Fynal or Gatlin are my picks as scum. You've presented a legitimate case for Fynal not being scum, so I'm going to say that Gatlin is scum. His post was short and almost obligatory. While it was a response to a legitimate question, choosing that post and not engaging the the (at that time) current discussion suggests an unwillingness to type more than he had to, minimising whatever chances one could read scum from his diction, etc. It also caused the post to go under the radar. His low post count suggests that other activity was not the reason for his brief response. Certainly, no further discussion has come concerning him at the moment.

Vote: Gatlin

I disagree with Gova in regards to this post.

In your initial question to AA you state that Fynal's post is a town-tell, and that he looks town.

When I read AA's post I interpreted it as disagreeing with Fynal town, but agreeing that it was a town tell.

I see it as a genuine town misunderstanding.

I didn't actually disagree, I merely said I wasn't convinced by your reasoning, even if that reasoning was sound. Sorry if that was unclear. I can see how badly I worded it.

At that point there were in my opinion only a few candidates who could be considered as scum: Fynal, Gatlin, Sworddancer and yourself, and of those the first two stood out to me, as reasoning for Sworddancer being scum was weak and it was too difficult to read intent from your advice-filled posts. Soren was, as you yourself pointed out, not really a serious pick.

Me pointing at those two was more to stimulate discussion than anything, as there was next to nothing to convince me of either's scumminess. You had already asked for discussion on Fynal, so I decided to press Gatlin a bit more.

I think the intent to discuss went somewhere, it let Gatlin clear his name reasonably (for me, at least, I don't know what anyone else thinks of him right now), even if nothing else really happened.

I do agree with Gova though that this section is iffy. I can see it as town not being confident in their reads and backing down under pressure, but I'd have to go with it being scummy at the moment.

 

[Gova]

@AA, I'm pretty sure he asked if you agree'd with his read on Fynal and you brought up Sorens post for no reason.

 

[Gova]

When I read AA's post I interpreted it as disagreeing with Fynal town, but agreeing that it was a town tell.

If he agree's that it's a town town tell, why would he disagree with Fynal being town?

 

[Seikend]

If he agree's that it's a town town tell, why would he disagree with Fynal being town?

Stating someone as town just from one town tell is way too overconfident in your reads, especially if you consider that town read minor.

 

[th3kuzinator]

I seem to remember someone asking me about lynching people replacing out.

If they are simply inactive and have not given you enough info to judge them on, and they replace out, it is usually best to give them a chance before lynching em (provided you receive a deadline extension if necessary).

If the player is scummy and is close to being lynched before replacing out, like Swords, his slot will still be scummy. I have been in to many games where scum use that AtE replacement thing before they are about to get lynched and they get off scotts free. I still say we lynch Sword's slot.

Those are my views the subject, anyway.

 

[Gova]

Yeah, but the problem is that he isn't convinced by X1's reasoning yet uses it to factor in whether or not he thought Fynal was scum, meaning he was convinced by some part of it. You should also point out where you think the misunderstanding is in that quote because I'm not seeing where he thinks it's a town tell.

Also, if you're not confident in your reads you'll never convince anyone that someone is scum.

 

[Seikend]

I'll break it down Gova.

@X1: What I've said is probably the reasoning of a million mafia newbies who've come before.

I'm not convinced with your decision on Fynal, based on two points.

"Your decision on Fynal". I.E. X1's town read on Fynal. Not whether Fynal's reponse was a town tell or not.

While it's true that what he says masks intent and move town towards their goal, scum could just as easily do so in order to lower suspicion on them. In this particular instance, assuming that Fynal is scum, what he said has convinced you otherwise. I've seen instances of Fynal posting very intelligently outside of these forums, so it is quite possible he is one of these 'reasonably smart scum' he alludes to.

While it's true town could do what Fynal did, so could scum.

The other point concerns how early a stage of the game we are in. If you are both going off Blacknight99923's post, a markedly random one, I'm honestly unsure as to how valid any reasoning from such a post is. While his credentials make me consider the possibility of that post having a directed purpose (Researcher status, his avatar), I honestly can't make a real decision at the moment.

No idea what this is about.

That said, Fynal or Gatlin are my picks as scum. You've presented a legitimate case for Fynal not being scum, so I'm going to say that Gatlin is scum.

I read it as AA sees what X1's getting at, but he's not convinced Fynal is town just from it. However, it is enough for him to not push Fynalscum.



I'm not saying you shouldn't be confident in your reads :/. It's not either confident in all of them, or unconfident in all of them. It's a scale, and your confidence should be related to the evidence you have.

 

[Gova]

But that's where the contradiction comes in. If he's not convinced, why would he be using it to determine whether or not Fynal is scum? That's kinda the point here.

Also, your last line is wrong imo. Some people have amazing gut reads. If you're not confident, they're going to slip from under your grasp.

 

[Gova]

Also, that didn't actually show me where the misunderstanding was or where AA agreed that it was a town tell.

 

[Seikend]

But that's where the contradiction comes in. If he's not convinced, why would he be using it to determine whether or not Fynal is scum? That's kinda the point here.

Also, your last line is wrong imo. Some people have amazing gut reads. If you're not confident, they're going to slip from under your grasp.

.___. It's not black or white. You're not always entirely convinced or unconvinced by a case.

He's not unconvinced that Fynal's post is pro-town. He's unconvinced on taking Fynal as town because of it.

AA does not disagree with X1's reasoning. However, he says that while it could indeed be taken as a pro-town post, it could also be smart scum lowering suspicion.

He takes Fynal's post as a town read, but he had Fynal as scum earlier. That scumread goes to null.


And alright, agree to disagree then.

 

[Seikend]

The misunderstanding is in the interpretation of the line "I'm not convinced with your decision on Fynal,"

X1 takes that as his case on Fynal.
AA means his Town stance on Fynal.


AA agreeing it's a town tell is "That said, Fynal or Gatlin are my picks as scum. You've presented a legitimate case for Fynal not being scum, so I'm going to say that Gatlin is scum."

 

[Gova]

Hmm, I guess. I usually take those as one and the same though. If I present a case for why someone is town and you disagree with it, chances are you disagree with the case too. And I can't think of an example where someone would agree with a case but disagree with the read coming from it.

 

[Seikend]

Hmm, I guess. I usually take those as one and the same though. If I present a case for why someone is town and you disagree with it, chances are you disagree with the case too. And I can't think of an example where someone would agree with a case but disagree with the read coming from it.

Say we've had an almost full day of discussion, and you're personally convinced that someone is scum. You could point to at least 20 anti-town things they've done.

If you were presented with one single pro-town thing they have done, and it was indeed true, would you then take them as town?

 

[Gova]

No, but the thing is, what was scummy about Fynal before that point though? There shouldn't have been anything to counter-act the town read and if there was, it hasn't been pointed out.

 

[Seikend]

No, but the thing is, what was scummy about Fynal before that point though? There shouldn't have been anything to counter-act the town read and if there was, it hasn't been pointed out.

We've been asking the wrong questions then.

@AA What gave you the scumread on Fynal back then?

 

[X1-12]

Unvote
Vote: asianaussie

@Mod: Can you change the OP so everyone's name is spelt correctly there? Also update on the replacements + My request for rule change to 48 hour prods please

 

[Gova]

@AA What gave you the scumread on Fynal back then?

Me pointing at those two was more to stimulate discussion than anything, as there was next to nothing to convince me of either's scumminess. You had already asked for discussion on Fynal, so I decided to press Gatlin a bit more.

I wish I knew how to 10 char dodge.

 

[Seikend]

I wish I knew how to 10 char dodge.

Oh, with you now.

@AA Did you have a scum read on Fynal before or not? Explain either way.

 

[Fynal]

@X1

could you answer my #681 please?

 

[asianaussie]

No, I did not have a scumread on Fynal, I had no scumreads at all, and all I said was that if anyone would be scum it would be Fynal or Gatlin, neither of whom I actually had a read on. It was for the sake of getting discussion up, as I have repeatedly mentioned.

I disagreed with X1 pinning Fynal as town off something as open-ended as his analysis of Soren's post, but I had no issue with the analysis itself.

Basically, I disagreed with the premise on which he built his conclusion, not the methods in which he came to it.

@X1, why did you choose to vote me? Please tell me everything that led you to this decision, I would like to see your thought processes laid open. If necessary, analyse the post 553 you found suspicious, as well as any of my more recent responses.

I have no issue with your analysis, but I have a feeling there is a fundamental misunderstanding somewhere.

 

[Gova]

No, I did not have a scumread on Fynal, I had no scumreads at all, and all I said was that if anyone would be scum it would be Fynal or Gatlin, neither of whom I actually had a read on. It was for the sake of getting discussion up, as I have repeatedly mentioned.

I disagreed with X1 pinning Fynal as town off something as open-ended as his analysis of Soren's post, but I had no issue with the analysis itself.

Basically, I disagreed with the premise on which he built his conclusion, not the methods in which he came to it.

@X1, why did you choose to vote me? Please tell me everything that led you to this decision, I would like to see your thought processes laid open. If necessary, analyse the post 553 you found suspicious, as well as any of my more recent responses.

I have no issue with your analysis, but I have a feeling there is a fundamental misunderstanding somewhere.

With regards to the underlined, you see how that is a contradiction? How can you call Gatlin or Fynal scum if you didn't have a read on them?

The bolded is also another contradiction. How can you be ok with the conclusion aka the analysis if you have a problem with his logic aka the premises?

 

[JTB]

Did discussion die out because we are waiting on replacements?

 

[Gova]

Even counting the replacements, there are ten other people who should be active.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Swords dead yet?

 

[Fynal]

i keep on looking in the most recent parts of this thread, almost forming an opinion worth posting but not quite, and wondering why so few posts...

so what does happen with swords? I think the real question is: if someone were to join and take sword's slot, could he potentially convince us that he shouldn't be lynched or would he just be lynched anyway?

 

[th3kuzinator]

Anything is possible. Swords' slot is hella scummy and I want it lynched before we have new replacement johns.

He wasn't being lyched solely due to Inactivity and therefore is still fair game

 

[Fynal]

gonna have to convince at least two more people of that kuz...

 

[JTB]

I agree with Kuz. We also have to realize that the deadline is next Wednesday night (technically very early Thursday morning), so we can't be waiting around for replacements to show up, lest we have to NL because of inactivity.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Shouldn't be a problem.

Will sit down later and write up a swords case.

 

[X1-12]

@Mod, seriously:

@Mod: Can you change the OP so everyone's name is spelt correctly there? Also update on the replacements + My request for rule change to 48 hour prods please

proper post tomorrow.

 

[asianaussie]

@ Gova

With regards to the underlined, you see how that is a contradiction? How can you call Gatlin or Fynal scum if you didn't have a read on them?

To stimulate discussion and put Gatlin (the less-discussed one) on the spot. Have I not said this repeatedly? It worked as well, Gatlin responded and I withdrew my vote. I admit that a FoS may have been more appropriate, but there were votes cast before that points (Gatlin voted Sworddancer as well). Tell me precisely you think this 'excuse' is insufficient.

The bolded is also another contradiction. How can you be ok with the conclusion aka the analysis if you have a problem with his logic aka the premises?

Read what I said more carefully.

The premise: Fynal's response to a random post was a town-tell.
The conclusion: Fynal is town.

I disagreed with both, even though his reasoning process was logical and relevant.

The entire argument involves me disagreeing with the Fynal town-read and still saying Fynal could have been scum. I had no issue with the logical structure of his argument (ie, what I said), and I did not agree with the conclusion OR the premise. The analysis, as I intended it, did not include the conclusion, merely the means to which the conclusion was derived. I gave the word 'analysis' a distinct context away from the conclusion itself. I'm beginning to think you're just desperate to find a contradiction, even if it's just based on words sans context.

 

[Fynal]

disturbing lack of activity continues

@siek, ran, X1, aa, gova, etc etc

how comfortable are you with sword being lynched today? thoughts? anything?

 

[JTB]

Keep in mind that it is Saturday too, should expect people to be on tomorrow though.

I'll be doing some reading tonight and hopefully bringing up stuff.

 

[X1-12]

@Kuz, what do you think of Ran? Atm I'm seeing worrying lack of motivation to post atm. Normally he's all posting trying to move town forwards, but now nothing is happening and he's OK with that? Also how's that Swords case going

@Fynal: Gova spotting the important things, i.e AA's supposed reads on Gatlin/Soren despite there being almost nothing to there to read them off.

@TBS: Why did you only answer one of my questions? Go back and answer them all please.

@All: Imo we should go between AA/Swords toDay, Swords for reasons already stated + I'm sure kuz's case can add some more. AA for contradictions in his post which he later tries to explain away by saying it was for pressure, looks very much like scum caught in a lie trying to dig their way out. He also thinks that Gatlin's response was sufficient to unvote him, despite the response being very weak. This shows that AA doesn't actually want to catch scum, just to be seen doing something, otherwise he'd actually follow up on his gatlin scumread, rather than just drop it.

Really sorry for poor activity on my part. I'm going to PM the mods about getting these people replaced because they seemingly don't even bother checking the thread of the game they're modding.