Newbie 24 - SMT: Devil Survivor LAW IS VICTORIOUS #1 CHAOS LOSES AHAHAHAH

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

A red herring is a role purposely put into games to mess with scum.

or at least that what I've always equated it to

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Like a distraction is probably the best way to put it

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Raz, thanks. I'll respond when you have today's posts up.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Me and Raz are town bro's, so just via PoE, plus FF's play just toDay and Pawn's fake cop make it pretty obvious to me that they be the scummers.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

A red herring is a role purposely put into games to mess with scum.

or at least that what I've always equated it to

Thanks.

Me and Raz are town bro's, so just via PoE, plus FF's play just toDay and Pawn's fake cop make it pretty obvious to me that they be the scummers.

Ok, thanks.


Pwn, FF get in here please?

 

[Raziek]

Alright, Frozenflame's posts are the ones that matter toDay, as Pawn hasn't done anything other than claim.

So we have a cop claim vs. a neighbors claim eh? Considering pwn already put his vote out, that means its gotta be either Rake/Raz scum or Wulf/Pwn scum.

FF came to the same conclusion I did of course, but excludes himself.

Let's break this down.

We've got a setup consisting of Town Cop & Voyeur vs. whatever scum PR's are out there or Town Neighbors & Voyeur vs possible scum PRs.

No one has claimed getting RB'd or messed with by a scum pr in any way this game thus far, so it seems to me like we're either dealing with a passive role like godfather or a roleblocker with some bad luck.

I agree with this section of analysis. A passive role is possible. Due to the total lack of PRs, I'm willing to bet there's only 1 scum PR and a goon. Probably just RB to make it simple. FF's scenario is equally plausible from a set-up perspective, but I of course don't believe it since I know our Neighbors is the actual set-up.

Just based on the strength of the claims alone, I'm really leaning toward pwn being legit here. Here's why.

His investigations make sense to me. Investigating a late replacement on D1 is a pretty smart play, regardless of who the slot was being played by and being taken up by. Xiroey from what I recall was pretty quiet D1 anyway, so that's a question mark that needed clearing up.

Investigating one of the claimed "neighbors" also makes completely perfect sense. If you confirm the claimer as town, you effectively get two clears. If you catch them lying, you get two scummies outted. No question about that decision.

Let's talk about these. What FF says is, again, a plausible explanation for Pawn's investigation. However, look at what he says in context.

With respect to the first paragraph, investigating Xiroey. FF's reasoning is legitimate, but where it doesn't fill the holes is how Pawn treats the slot on Day 2. If (as FF claims), Pawn now knows that he is Town... why is Pawn still so jumpy when Rake moves in that direction? If it got close to a lynch, Pawn could simply claim his result. Instead, we see the nervous behavior that I claim is more fitting of a scumteam.

On the second paragraph, again, completely plausible. However, I then ask why Pawn wouldn't have copped one of us on Night 1? He didn't trust my defense of Rake, and he certainly didn't trust Rake. Why would TownPawn not follow Ran's lead and investigate one of us? TownPawn had already said at this point that we could worry about Xiroey's replacement later, so why would he investigate FF before us? He's new, so he doesn't know FF's reputation. Nobody had mentioned it at that point.

The order of the investigations doesn't make sense.

Beyond the decisions, we can look at the game setup as a whole. We're in a newbie game firstly. Just on that alone, cop seems like the more reasonable claim. Also, considering what else we know is in the setup (Voyeur), it makes WAY more sense than neighbors, who don't have any targetting abilities at all. If neighbors were the only other town PR in the game (which Rake and Raz contend), then the voyeur power is a red herring, which would be ******** in a newbie game. The game needs to have some kind of targetting role other than the voyeur for the setup to make sense, so a town cop fits in quite nicely. This could be coupled very well with a mafia godfather, RBer. and/or framer/lawyer/tailor. Just in terms of game balance and what a good noobie game should look like, Cop/Voyeur/one of the above listed scum PRs as the setup just makes wayyyyyyyyyy more sense. I mean think about it. What kind of PR can the scum have that works against neighbors? ****ing nothing. A setup of Voyeur and Neighbors would be ********. Voyeur literally cant gather ANY USEFUL INFO AT ALL. Zero. There wouldn't be a single targetting role in the game that would yield useful info (they could see the person who's about to die get targetted by the kill, but that's useless).

Alright. I'll grant him that Cop is more likely in a newbie game. However, he seems to argue that the Voyeur must have a TOWN power to interact with. (This is why he says Cop > Neighbors) But what makes that true? Consider that Voyeur essentially ACTS as a Cop in the current Neighbor set-up.

Because Rake and I do not travel, and no other Town PR does, then ANYONE the Voyeur actually sees has to be scum, which can catch scum in a massclaim. Town has a weak cop and two clears. The red, as a result, is false. Depending on when scum had to claim, they could end up trapped by the Voyeur claim regardless.

I won't disagree that Voyeur/Neighbor is STRANGE, and I won't disagree that it's weak, but it's not implausible and I certainly wouldn't put it past Soup.
[quoe[
Then we can look at the claim coming out of Rake/Raz. We have a rush claimed coming out in twilight, with no real time for explanation. On top of that, I personally just have a really hard time seeing them as legit neighbors. Just from my reading of this game, I never would have guessed those two to be confirmed to each other as town. They just didn't carry themselves in that manner. Not that they said they were crumbing it, but even so, I don't see their interactions as indicative of being confirmed town to one another.

There are also a couple other interesting tidbits we can look at:

Expecting a cop claim and now you're freaking out about it because you got copped and outted? Classy as **** scum move bro

lol dat WIFOM

"Hey guys I'm making a claim that is unconfirmable and would be a perfect claim for a scum team trying to win on the next day as a gambit. BUT DON'T WORRY IM TELLING YOU RIGHT NOW ITS NOT A GAMBIT SO ITS TOTALLY NOT A GAMBIT CUZ I SAID SO!"

Did you actually think that that was a seriously good argument? Like actually?

But yeah, I don't think there's too much else to say. Other than that fact that just at face value, it seems WAYYYYYYYY more likely to me that Raz/Rake would have the confidence as scum to pull a fake claim gambit compared to pwn, who's been giving me classic noobtown tells all game. Are you guys seriously contending that pwn just made up a fake cop claim on the spot in a ****ing newbie game? I really don't see how anyone can look at this claim off and legitimately think that your neighbors claim looks legit at all.

Need to wait for badwolf though on this and hear what he has to say. Gotta make sure we've got all our info on the table here.[/quote]
I've addressed essentially all of this already. I've gone over our play supporting our Neighbors role.

lmao I also just realized that your claim actually doesn't even make sense to what power you actually say you have.

You claim that you are confirmed to each other as town. That's a classic town MASONRY.

A town "friendly" neighbor usually gets to pick one person in the game to send a message to confirming that he, the friendly neighbor, is town. Once that request is sent, it's a one way transaction and though the receiver is informed that the sender is town, the sender does not get confirmation of the receivers alignment.

Another version, called the "neighborizer" can usually add one or two people into a "neighborhood" in which the members can chat privately about the game out of the main thread, but DO NOT have their alignments confirmed to one another.

yeah wow, don't know how I didn't catch that earlier. Your claim is ****ing bogus hahaha

This entire post is essentially worthless.

I'm not ********. I know what a masonry is. My first game that I HOSTED as a mod (Skies of Arcadia mafia) contained a pair of masons. I'm well familiar with the role.

Do you honestly think that I would botch a claim on something as frivolous as the name of the role. We claimed the role name IN the CRUMBS. We claimed what it is.

Yes, I know how a Neighborizer works. We're not Neighborizers, though. We're Neighbors. As in, already neighborized. Which functionally makes us masons with a dumb name.

EITHER WAY, this entire post is nitpicking entirely over a point that I'm far better than to make a mistake on. My first game ever I pulled off a TOWN ALIGNED INDY claim that I carefully constructed in excruciating detail. I almost won Majora's Mask mafia as Indy with a fakeclaim!

Do you really think I'd **** up the name of a masonry?

Alright. I'm gonna filter the personal attacks and fluff in orange here.

Clearly you have no idea how to read. Nor do you have any idea what this game looks like from a townies perspective, even if I happen to be wrong and you are one.

I said there are two possibilities here from my perspective. Either you and Raz are lying and are thus scum buddies, OR pwn is lying, which means his partner must be wulf. How the **** is that so hard to understand?

I never said everyone other than me is scum. I said that THOSE ARE THE TWO POSSIBILITIES FROM MY PERSPECTIVE. The scum team has to be one of those two pairings, end of ****ing story. (This repeats the previous paragraph)

This is seriously saddening. I thought you understood mafia game design better than this rake. Disappointing. Or maybe you're just floundering scum under pressure and this isn't actually what you would think as town. Idk. Anyway, let me hold you hand here.

First of all, determining what MAKES SENSE and SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE is absolutely a good idea for discussion and analysis.

This part is true.

You just dismissing setup analysis like it means nothing is a PERFECT indicator that you know that your claim is ****ing bogus and doesn't make ANY SENSE based on what we know of the setup, and thus, you want to limit the amount of scrutiny people have for your claim and the setup in general.

You're fundamentally missing the point about the voyeur. A voyeur's power is to target a player at night, and then if that targeted player is also targeted by any other powers, the voyeur will see what powers targeted that play.

Example:

Voyeur targets player A.
Doc targets player A.
Cop targets player A.

Voyeur would get this result: Cop, Doctor or something like "investigated, protected".

But guess what? According to your claim, you and Raz don't target anyone at all. That's the way a normal friendly neighbor works, but not you guys apparently, according to you own claim (read: bogus claim).

Been over this already.

If your claim is true and you're neighbors, and if pwn is lying about being cop, then the setup would have a voyeur in it with NO OTHER ****ING POWERS TO EVEN DETECT. The role would be a red herring. A red herring in a newbie game? Unless you're seriously trying to contend that soup would deliberately troll new players with a useless red herring role in a ****ing noobie game, you have no case. And if you did, it'd be a really, really bad one.

Also been over this, and how it isn't a red herring.

Sure, the fact that your claim makes no sense doesn't guarantee that you're scum, but last time I checked, analysing claims for their legitimacy is a really ****ing good way to scum hunt. That's what I'm doing right now. Just because you ****ing claim you're a "neighbor" doesn't make you one, just like my setup analysis doesn't MAKE you scum. However, my analysis here certainly shows why it's MUCH MORE LIKELY AND REASONABLE to deduce that your claim is bull****, because it doesn't make ANY SENSE based on what else we know of the game. Cop makes WAYYYYY more sense, and that's based on objective analysis of what the power role in the game that we KNOW EXISTED FOR SURE does MECHANICALLY. That's not even debatable.


Care to explain how we needed that info again? I seriously follow you.

I also wasn't saying that your interactions make me think you're def scum. Your claim makes me think that. My point about your interactions is that they don't seem like the way confirmed townies would interact. Of course it doesn't prove anything, but it lends to my doubt of your claim. You say you've been confirmed town to each other. I say your play doesn't reflect that type of knowledge, which makes me think you're lying about the claim. How is that so hard to understand?



The voyeur flip changing your expectations is fair. I understand that. It also makes sense though that you fake claimed neighbors expecting there to be a cop/tracker (both of which would still have value even if your claim was legit) and then when the voyeur flipped you freaked because you didn't realize how much that flip would fly in the face of your claim. Voyeur and neighbors as you've described them DON'T MAKE ANY SENSE AS A PR PAIRING FOR THE TOWN IN THIS SETUP.

So yeah, I can understand your flip flop on the cop expectation, but it, doesn't help reconcile your claim's obvious conflict with all the other info we have.



Maybe if Raz worded it that way I'd believe you. But he didn't. I ****ing quoted his post. Like come the **** on, it's the WIFOMiest **** I've ever seen.

I'm not trying to swing your claim in a scummy manner at all. The GAME FACTS THAT WE HAVE IN FRONT OF US SHOW YOUR CLAIMS SCUMMINESS. I'm just putting the pieces together so it's easy for everyone to see and understand. You're the one who's trying to cover up and dismiss my accurate, logical and concrete analysis. Now THAT'S a classic scum tactic.

And where in the ****ing world did I argue that you must be scum because you're both alive? Like what? I never said that once. Thanks for putting words in my mouth though, pretty townie move there bro (/sarcasm).

Like seriously now you're just trying to make **** up to make me look bad.

@ BadWolf: Please seriously sit down and read my posts very carefully. Read my analysis for good understanding. You'll easily be able to see that I'm simply presenting FACTS about the setup and what makes sense. Don't let rake just twist my words and spout FUD at you. Just please read for good understanding. I really, really want to believe that you and pwn aren't scum together and that I'm right about Rake and Raz here, so don't do scummy bull**** like skimming and not actually understanding our situation.

The entire rest of this post may as well be orange. He's just rehashing the same stuff.

Frozenflame does not have a leg to stand on. His setup analysis is weak and circumstantial, and the only point he has that actually talks about our play is completely false.

I already THOROUGHLY showed all of the interactions between Rake and I, and how that supports our neighbor claim.

At this point, I have said all that I feel needs to be said.

 

[Raziek]

****ed up a quote.

Alright, Frozenflame's posts are the ones that matter toDay, as Pawn hasn't done anything other than claim.

So we have a cop claim vs. a neighbors claim eh? Considering pwn already put his vote out, that means its gotta be either Rake/Raz scum or Wulf/Pwn scum.

FF came to the same conclusion I did of course, but excludes himself.

Let's break this down.

We've got a setup consisting of Town Cop & Voyeur vs. whatever scum PR's are out there or Town Neighbors & Voyeur vs possible scum PRs.

No one has claimed getting RB'd or messed with by a scum pr in any way this game thus far, so it seems to me like we're either dealing with a passive role like godfather or a roleblocker with some bad luck.

I agree with this section of analysis. A passive role is possible. Due to the total lack of PRs, I'm willing to bet there's only 1 scum PR and a goon. Probably just RB to make it simple. FF's scenario is equally plausible from a set-up perspective, but I of course don't believe it since I know our Neighbors is the actual set-up.

Just based on the strength of the claims alone, I'm really leaning toward pwn being legit here. Here's why.

His investigations make sense to me. Investigating a late replacement on D1 is a pretty smart play, regardless of who the slot was being played by and being taken up by. Xiroey from what I recall was pretty quiet D1 anyway, so that's a question mark that needed clearing up.

Investigating one of the claimed "neighbors" also makes completely perfect sense. If you confirm the claimer as town, you effectively get two clears. If you catch them lying, you get two scummies outted. No question about that decision.

Let's talk about these. What FF says is, again, a plausible explanation for Pawn's investigation. However, look at what he says in context.

With respect to the first paragraph, investigating Xiroey. FF's reasoning is legitimate, but where it doesn't fill the holes is how Pawn treats the slot on Day 2. If (as FF claims), Pawn now knows that he is Town... why is Pawn still so jumpy when Rake moves in that direction? If it got close to a lynch, Pawn could simply claim his result. Instead, we see the nervous behavior that I claim is more fitting of a scumteam.

On the second paragraph, again, completely plausible. However, I then ask why Pawn wouldn't have copped one of us on Night 1? He didn't trust my defense of Rake, and he certainly didn't trust Rake. Why would TownPawn not follow Ran's lead and investigate one of us? TownPawn had already said at this point that we could worry about Xiroey's replacement later, so why would he investigate FF before us? He's new, so he doesn't know FF's reputation. Nobody had mentioned it at that point.

The order of the investigations doesn't make sense.

Beyond the decisions, we can look at the game setup as a whole. We're in a newbie game firstly. Just on that alone, cop seems like the more reasonable claim. Also, considering what else we know is in the setup (Voyeur), it makes WAY more sense than neighbors, who don't have any targetting abilities at all. If neighbors were the only other town PR in the game (which Rake and Raz contend), then the voyeur power is a red herring, which would be ******** in a newbie game. The game needs to have some kind of targetting role other than the voyeur for the setup to make sense, so a town cop fits in quite nicely. This could be coupled very well with a mafia godfather, RBer. and/or framer/lawyer/tailor. Just in terms of game balance and what a good noobie game should look like, Cop/Voyeur/one of the above listed scum PRs as the setup just makes wayyyyyyyyyy more sense. I mean think about it. What kind of PR can the scum have that works against neighbors? ****ing nothing. A setup of Voyeur and Neighbors would be ********.Voyeur literally cant gather ANY USEFUL INFO AT ALL. Zero. There wouldn't be a single targetting role in the game that would yield useful info (they could see the person who's about to die get targetted by the kill, but that's useless).

Alright. I'll grant him that Cop is more likely in a newbie game. However, he seems to argue that the Voyeur must have a TOWN power to interact with. (This is why he says Cop > Neighbors) But what makes that true? Consider that Voyeur essentially ACTS as a Cop in the current Neighbor set-up.

Because Rake and I do not travel, and no other Town PR does, then ANYONE the Voyeur actually sees has to be scum, which can catch scum in a massclaim. Town has a weak cop and two clears. The red, as a result, is false. Depending on when scum had to claim, they could end up trapped by the Voyeur claim regardless.

I won't disagree that Voyeur/Neighbor is STRANGE, and I won't disagree that it's weak, but it's not implausible and I certainly wouldn't put it past Soup.

Then we can look at the claim coming out of Rake/Raz. We have a rush claimed coming out in twilight, with no real time for explanation. On top of that, I personally just have a really hard time seeing them as legit neighbors. Just from my reading of this game, I never would have guessed those two to be confirmed to each other as town. They just didn't carry themselves in that manner. Not that they said they were crumbing it, but even so, I don't see their interactions as indicative of being confirmed town to one another.

There are also a couple other interesting tidbits we can look at:

Expecting a cop claim and now you're freaking out about it because you got copped and outted? Classy as **** scum move bro

lol dat WIFOM

"Hey guys I'm making a claim that is unconfirmable and would be a perfect claim for a scum team trying to win on the next day as a gambit. BUT DON'T WORRY IM TELLING YOU RIGHT NOW ITS NOT A GAMBIT SO ITS TOTALLY NOT A GAMBIT CUZ I SAID SO!"

Did you actually think that that was a seriously good argument? Like actually?

But yeah, I don't think there's too much else to say. Other than that fact that just at face value, it seems WAYYYYYYYY more likely to me that Raz/Rake would have the confidence as scum to pull a fake claim gambit compared to pwn, who's been giving me classic noobtown tells all game. Are you guys seriously contending that pwn just made up a fake cop claim on the spot in a ****ing newbie game? I really don't see how anyone can look at this claim off and legitimately think that your neighbors claim looks legit at all.

Need to wait for badwolf though on this and hear what he has to say. Gotta make sure we've got all our info on the table here.

I've addressed essentially all of this already. I've gone over our play supporting our Neighbors role.

lmao I also just realized that your claim actually doesn't even make sense to what power you actually say you have.

You claim that you are confirmed to each other as town. That's a classic town MASONRY.

A town "friendly" neighbor usually gets to pick one person in the game to send a message to confirming that he, the friendly neighbor, is town. Once that request is sent, it's a one way transaction and though the receiver is informed that the sender is town, the sender does not get confirmation of the receivers alignment.

Another version, called the "neighborizer" can usually add one or two people into a "neighborhood" in which the members can chat privately about the game out of the main thread, but DO NOT have their alignments confirmed to one another.

yeah wow, don't know how I didn't catch that earlier. Your claim is ****ing bogus hahaha

This entire post is essentially worthless.

I'm not ********. I know what a masonry is. My first game that I HOSTED as a mod (Skies of Arcadia mafia) contained a pair of masons. I'm well familiar with the role.

Do you honestly think that I would botch a claim on something as frivolous as the name of the role. We claimed the role name IN the CRUMBS. We claimed what it is.

Yes, I know how a Neighborizer works. We're not Neighborizers, though. We're Neighbors. As in, already neighborized. Which functionally makes us masons with a dumb name.

EITHER WAY, this entire post is nitpicking entirely over a point that I'm far better than to make a mistake on. My first game ever I pulled off a TOWN ALIGNED INDY claim that I carefully constructed in excruciating detail. I almost won Majora's Mask mafia as Indy with a fakeclaim!

Do you really think I'd **** up the name of a masonry?

Alright. I'm gonna filter the personal attacks and fluff in orange here.

Clearly you have no idea how to read. Nor do you have any idea what this game looks like from a townies perspective, even if I happen to be wrong and you are one.

I said there are two possibilities here from my perspective. Either you and Raz are lying and are thus scum buddies, OR pwn is lying, which means his partner must be wulf. How the **** is that so hard to understand?

I never said everyone other than me is scum. I said that THOSE ARE THE TWO POSSIBILITIES FROM MY PERSPECTIVE. The scum team has to be one of those two pairings, end of ****ing story. (This repeats the previous paragraph)

This is seriously saddening. I thought you understood mafia game design better than this rake. Disappointing. Or maybe you're just floundering scum under pressure and this isn't actually what you would think as town. Idk. Anyway, let me hold you hand here.

First of all, determining what MAKES SENSE and SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE is absolutely a good idea for discussion and analysis.

This part is true.

You just dismissing setup analysis like it means nothing is a PERFECT indicator that you know that your claim is ****ing bogus and doesn't make ANY SENSE based on what we know of the setup, and thus, you want to limit the amount of scrutiny people have for your claim and the setup in general.

You're fundamentally missing the point about the voyeur. A voyeur's power is to target a player at night, and then if that targeted player is also targeted by any other powers, the voyeur will see what powers targeted that play.

Example:

Voyeur targets player A.
Doc targets player A.
Cop targets player A.

Voyeur would get this result: Cop, Doctor or something like "investigated, protected".

But guess what? According to your claim, you and Raz don't target anyone at all. That's the way a normal friendly neighbor works, but not you guys apparently, according to you own claim (read: bogus claim).

Been over this already.

If your claim is true and you're neighbors, and if pwn is lying about being cop, then the setup would have a voyeur in it with NO OTHER ****ING POWERS TO EVEN DETECT. The role would be a red herring. A red herring in a newbie game? Unless you're seriously trying to contend that soup would deliberately troll new players with a useless red herring role in a ****ing noobie game, you have no case. And if you did, it'd be a really, really bad one.

Also been over this, and how it isn't a red herring.

Sure, the fact that your claim makes no sense doesn't guarantee that you're scum, but last time I checked, analysing claims for their legitimacy is a really ****ing good way to scum hunt. That's what I'm doing right now. Just because you ****ing claim you're a "neighbor" doesn't make you one, just like my setup analysis doesn't MAKE you scum. However, my analysis here certainly shows why it's MUCH MORE LIKELY AND REASONABLE to deduce that your claim is bull****, because it doesn't make ANY SENSE based on what else we know of the game. Cop makes WAYYYYY more sense, and that's based on objective analysis of what the power role in the game that we KNOW EXISTED FOR SURE does MECHANICALLY. That's not even debatable.


Care to explain how we needed that info again? I seriously follow you.

I also wasn't saying that your interactions make me think you're def scum. Your claim makes me think that. My point about your interactions is that they don't seem like the way confirmed townies would interact. Of course it doesn't prove anything, but it lends to my doubt of your claim. You say you've been confirmed town to each other. I say your play doesn't reflect that type of knowledge, which makes me think you're lying about the claim. How is that so hard to understand?



The voyeur flip changing your expectations is fair. I understand that. It also makes sense though that you fake claimed neighbors expecting there to be a cop/tracker (both of which would still have value even if your claim was legit) and then when the voyeur flipped you freaked because you didn't realize how much that flip would fly in the face of your claim. Voyeur and neighbors as you've described them DON'T MAKE ANY SENSE AS A PR PAIRING FOR THE TOWN IN THIS SETUP.

So yeah, I can understand your flip flop on the cop expectation, but it, doesn't help reconcile your claim's obvious conflict with all the other info we have.



Maybe if Raz worded it that way I'd believe you. But he didn't. I ****ing quoted his post. Like come the **** on, it's the WIFOMiest **** I've ever seen.

I'm not trying to swing your claim in a scummy manner at all. The GAME FACTS THAT WE HAVE IN FRONT OF US SHOW YOUR CLAIMS SCUMMINESS. I'm just putting the pieces together so it's easy for everyone to see and understand. You're the one who's trying to cover up and dismiss my accurate, logical and concrete analysis. Now THAT'S a classic scum tactic.

And where in the ****ing world did I argue that you must be scum because you're both alive? Like what? I never said that once. Thanks for putting words in my mouth though, pretty townie move there bro (/sarcasm).

Like seriously now you're just trying to make **** up to make me look bad.

@ BadWolf: Please seriously sit down and read my posts very carefully. Read my analysis for good understanding. You'll easily be able to see that I'm simply presenting FACTS about the setup and what makes sense. Don't let rake just twist my words and spout FUD at you. Just please read for good understanding. I really, really want to believe that you and pwn aren't scum together and that I'm right about Rake and Raz here, so don't do scummy bull**** like skimming and not actually understanding our situation.

The entire rest of this post may as well be orange. He's just rehashing the same stuff.

Frozenflame does not have a leg to stand on. His setup analysis is weak and circumstantial, and the only point he has that actually talks about our play is completely false.

I already THOROUGHLY showed all of the interactions between Rake and I, and how that supports our neighbor claim.

At this point, I have said all that I feel needs to be said.

 

[Raziek]

Wolf, if you've got questions, I'm here.

Otherwise, I'm prepared to vote for Pawn when you've made your decision and gathered all the information you need.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Ok, wow. Since it's starting to round on 12 here, I'm going to sleep on this.

@Everyone sans Raz: GIVE THOUGHTS. NOW.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Wolf, if you've got questions, I'm here.

Awesome, thanks for being very cooperative. Let's just sleep now.

 

[Raziek]

Cool. Gonna go play Monster Hunter then.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Lynch Pawn. See him flip scum.

Flip will prove me and Raz are legit.

Win game.

Beat myself up because I've played terribly.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Or (and probably the better one as raz has so clearly spelt out)

Lynch FF.

Watch him flip scum.

Proves Pawn never investigated him / faked his results > proves Pawn is scum.

Proves me / Raz are legit.

Win game.

Beat myself up because I've played badly.

 

[Raziek]

No, no.

FF is not the better lynch.

Pawn is the better lynch, because we KNOW Pawn is lying for sure, and Pawn and Badwolf being scum makes no sense.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

It works either way IMO / from my POV.

Pawn is proven a liar in either scenario.

If we lynch FF, he's going to flip scum > Pawn has claimed he investigated him and got an innocent, this would be a lie now town cop would need to tell in this situation > Pawn is scum with FF.

If we lynch Pawn > He flips scum, both his investigations are fake > me/you are cleared > FF is proven as scum.

Same path different roads.

 

[Raziek]

Yes, but we lynch the proven liar first to be 100% safe!

Go to sleep, you're being dumb.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

in the first scenario, this also means pawn lied on investigating me > meaning me/you are cleared as well.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Yeah, your right Raz, on both counts.

But i can't sleep, chatting with a smoking hot gal. You know how it is. Not to mention I'm still strangely energized / burnt out from my workout.

 

[pawndidater2]

Holy crap, you guys were busy. I haven't been here because I was sleeping. You see, I happen to not be a vampire. Let me read all of this and I'll throw something up in a minute.

 

[pawndidater2]

@BW: Rake/Raz is very obvious to me, seeing as I know Rake is scum and therefore the neighbors claim is bs. That means you and FF must be town.

None of what he actually said addressed anything from the case. He did what I did for Rake, essentially, waving pressure away from the lynch without committing to things. Difference is, why would TownPawn be making excuses for Xiroey, whose alignment he doesn't know?

I did address the case. It was mainly about his awkward posting, and I said that seemed more like newb mistakes to me, because it did. Quite honestly, the case didn't seem good enough to me, so I defended him there. This factored into my D1 investigation, because I wasn't 100% sure I was right, but I wanted to give him a chance first.

Next up with have these two posts, which are 509 and 511 respectively. Once Day 2 starts, Rake comes out saying he believes FF and GaGa should be a focus for the day. Pawn immediately reacts to that by demanding an explanation, which is out of the ordinary to react that quickly and sharply to that. It's consistent with his defense of Xiroey earlier.

Note the yellow. You can't see the quote, but if you go to the post itself, he's responding to my question directed at (you guessed it), Frozenflame, once again having the quick reaction towards any suspicion of the slot. (See, Xiroey case D1 and Rake wanting FF at start of D2.)
Pawn gets SUPER jumpy every time people look at that slot.

These are directed at these quotes of mine:

Expatiate.

Why is this relevant?

I'm not sure how you get to jumpy from that. The first one is "Why do you think they should be our focus toDay?", not "OMFG WTF R U DOIN RAKE?!?"
The second is also an honest question. I couldn't see what he was getting at, so I asked why it was important. Again, not jumpy in any traditional sense of the word.

That's all I have time for right now. I'll be on tonight.

 

[pawndidater2]

Rake, what was that you were saying about it being a noob scum mistake to try and end the game as quickly as possible? Because your plans involve someone getting lynched, which, since you're scum, would win the game for mafia. If you could say something productive, that would be nice.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

My brain is currently being tied in knots. All these claims are messing with me and I'm not sure who's lying and who isn't at this point. Raz and Rake seem to have their crap together more. But I know Pwn and lying at this point doesn't seem like his cup of tea. FF is annoying as **** right now, and he's the only one I really want to lynch with certainty. The only problem with that is that I know lynching Pwn has the best chance of hitting scum at this point. Plus the ****ing crumbing is also screwing with my head. Basically I'm really not sure at this point. I still want FF and Pwn to wall. Rake I want your opinions on Raz's stuff.

If FF doesn't respond by Sunday I'm going with him.

#tangled

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Rake, what was that you were saying about it being a noob scum mistake to try and end the game as quickly as possible? Because your plans involve someone getting lynched, which, since you're scum, would win the game for mafia. If you could say something productive, that would be nice.

Let's stop the throwing of names. It's getting on my nerves. Let's make intelligent and cohesive arguments please.

 

[pawndidater2]

Wall will come some time tonight. Probably around eight or nine.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Firstly, it was Raz, my town-bro , who said it was a noobscum mistake.
Secondly, my plan is the same as Raz's , lynch you, who we know is lying , and then after you flip scum, lynch your partner FF.

Raz has already laid out everything that could possibly be said or put on the table at this point, and of course I agree with all of it. I know Raz and I are town, and I know that Pawn and FF are scum because of his claim.

Getting you(Pawn) lynched, wins the game for town, plain and simple.

From my POV, you are proved as a liar in either scenario whether we lynch you or FF, it's simply better to lynch you as we (Me and Raz) know that you are lying with 100% certainty.

There is nothing really I can add that wouldn't re-hash what Raz has already laid out.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

I love how I asked Badwulf to actually read my posts for understanding, and he blatantly disregarded that. Can't wait to watch you throw this game to scum Rake/Raz dude. Watching you fall for Raziek's nice guy play is laughable. You're literally eating out of the palm of his hand like an obedient child. The fact that he can emotionally manipulate you this much is both astounding and pathetic. But I digress.

"Clearly you have no idea how to read. Nor do you have any idea what this game looks like from a townies perspective, even if I happen to be wrong and you are one."

Aggro as ****, don't like it even if you are town. Throwing **** at each other is only adding more ****.

You sound like Raziek. Attack the tone, not the message. Considering Raziek hasn't made a logical counterpoint to any of my arguments this entire day phase, I can see why you're following in suit. How cute.

My point here was that the way rake was mischaracterizing my analysis of what the situation must be from my perspective was deliberately scummy. He LITERALLY LIED AND MISREPRESENTED WHAT I SAID. Just because I was mean about telling him how ****ing **** of a move that was doesn't mean I wasn't right.

"I said there are two possibilities here from my perspective. Either you and Raz are lying and are thus scum buddies, OR pwn is lying, which means his partner must be wulf. How the **** is that so hard to understand?"

Actually, no. Pwn could not be lying and Raz could be his scum buddy. I have thought that Raz/Rake are taking a big chance and are not actual Neighbors and just know each other to be town. I don't want to believe it, but it's possible.

What......? Like..... are you serious? How can you actually think this? Like, do you even think critically? At all?

Rake and Raz are claiming to be confirmed town to each other as neighbors. Why in the world would they do that if they were town and actually had no idea of the other's alignment? That would be one of the dumbest things they could possibly do, and if they are town and doing that, then they're literally throwing the game.

The only possibilities that make sense are that they are actually neighbors (which makes no sense at all if you read through my analysis) or they're scum buddies faking the claim that they're neighbors (which is a very, very easy claim to fake since it's unverifiable in endgame and doesn't require them to come up with any action history).

"I never said everyone other than me is scum."

You explicitly said either Pwn/me or Raz/Rake was scum team. Pretty ****ing clear to me.

THOSE. ARE. TWO. DIFFERENT. STATEMENTS.

PLEASE THROW THE GAME HARDER, LIKE WOW

I NEVER said that everyone other than me is scum. I explicitly stated that FROM MY PERSPECTIVE, the scum team HAS to be either Rake/Raz, or Pwn/You. I'm very, very convinced that it's Rake/Raz. That IS NOT, calling "everyone other than me scum". It's just not. If you still don't understand that then you're beyond help.

"The role would be a red herring. A red herring in a newbie game? Unless you're seriously trying to contend that soup would deliberately troll new players with a useless red herring role in a ****ing noobie game, you have no case."

Want to explain this? What exactly is a red herring?

A red herring is a role in that is placed in a game that is functionally useless, and meant to make the players believe that the game is designed in a given way, when it is not.

For example, putting a Shrink in a game with no recruiting roles is a red herring. Since all a shrink does is protect players from being recruited by recruiting roles, then the existence of a Shrink in a game with no recruiting roles is deliberately misleading.

In our scenario, Raz and Rake contending that they are neighbors in this setup where the only other known role is a Voyeur, REQUIRES us to assume then that the Voyeur was a red herring, and that's part of the problem I have with their claim.

Since a voyeur returns a result listing the ACTIONS used on the target player at night, if Rake and Raz are actually neighbors, then the Voyeur would literally be unable to return any useful info at night. There would be no town roles to see targeting anyone, and seeing someone about to be nightkilled via the voyeur ability is useless because they're going to die anyway.

Voyeur and Neighbors as town PRs has ZERO SYNERGY AND MAKES NO SENSE. It means that the voyeur is a red herring role. Do seriously believe Soup would deliberately troll new players in a NEWBIE GAME with a red herring role like that?

What were your reads on them before they had claimed?

Rake was really my only town read going into today, but the claimed investigation results changed that.

My reads were mostly predicated on the assumption that one of Gaga/Kant were scum but I was wrong on both accounts there so obviously I had to take a fresh look at the game this day phase. I said earlier that if Kant came up scum I did not see either Rake or Raz as his possible partner. However, with Kant coming up town, that read is irrelevant.Based on the info we have in front of us, the only logical conclusion here based on the evidence is that Raz/Rake are trying to take us for a ride on a last minute fabricated neighbor claim.

I'm slightly annoyed at FF for random *** fluff to make his case seem bigger. It's basically one point: Raz/Rake's claim was really bad. Got it, thanks for pointing it out 10 times.

No, it's not one point. You aren't reading. My point is much larger than just "lol the claim was bad". Not only was the claim executed in a rushed and pointless manner, but it DOESN'T MAKE ANY SENSE BASED ON THE FACTS ABOUT THE GAME THAT WE HAVE IN FRONT OF US.

This is even my ****ing opinion. This is mechanical analysis. Unbiased. Fact based. Their claim is ****ing garbage.

On to the next post...

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Now, Frozenflame is casting the Raz/Rake scumteam. In order to do so, one would need to show scum intent in my connections with Rake.

But here's the problem I have with that. I DIRECTLY, CONSISTENTLY and CONSTANTLY link myself to Rake.

I'm not a bad player. I'm not amazing by any stretch of the imagination, but I'm damn well smart enough to know when I should consider bussing a partner or attempt to distance myself from him.

Did you see any distancing? I literally never ask Rake a single question in thread. Not once. If I was scum, I'd want to fake those interactions so I like Town. But here's the thing. Scum do that because if one of them flips, they want the other one to not be directly linked to them based on their interactions. So they try to look like a Townie interacting with a scummy.

But I don't distance myself from Rake at all, because I KNOW if one of us flips, it clears the other and absolves all doubt. I didn't have to distance. I didn't have to fake anything. Because.... I'm not scum. I knew he'd flip Town, so I don't have to worry a DAMN THING about my connections to him.

If I had been scum in that position, I'd consider setting myself up for a possible bus. Rake was currently being looked at for a lynch, and I could have easily sidelined and bussed him if I needed to. But I didn't. I stuck my neck out for him. Why? Because I'm not afraid to be linked to him on his flip.

It's pretty simple.

All of this is garbage. Every, last sentence.

This entire diatribe is all predicated on the assumption that you and Rake as scum buddies wouldn't have been playing the game early on in a matter consistent with a future planned fake claim of neighbors.

Wanna know a great scenario in which two scum buddies have reason to constantly link themselves to each other all game, crumb hints about being linked/confirmed, and generally not bus or distance at all?

THE SCENARIO WHERE THOSE SCUM BUDDIES DECIDED THEY WOULD PLAN TO MAKE A NEIGHBORS FAKE CLAIM

Shocker right?

Raziek sits up on his high horse and calls all of my FACT BASED ARGUEMENT "circumstantial" and "weak" when he just conveniently leaves holes in his pissant, revisionist argument here. How in the world do you get off calling my case circumstantial when your case is LITERALLY based entirely on a biased, WIFOM laden analysis of what you and Rake would have done as "neighbors" versus scum buddies.

You literally don't have a single way of confirming any of this baseless conjecture through evidence. All of your analysis ASSUMES your viewpoint, and an internal lens.

But then you go on to act like it's not, with no substantiation. You go on to name call and strawman, with zero substantiation. You write off factual analysis like it's a joke, AND THEN you have the balls to call it circumstantial, again, with not a shred of substantiation.

The funniest part is though, is that Wolf is gonna throw the game to you, because he likes it when you talk to him nicely, give him pats on the head, and color code your posts for him. Are you sending him some chocolates too when this game ends?

Listen Wolf. I know I deliver my arguments with a rough tone. I like to tell it how it is. I'm not a sugarcoater. If you need something sugarcoated, that just means you're either too dumb or too weak to handle the truth, plain and simple. Don't write me off because I sound like a jerk. I mean cmon, it's the internet for ****s sake. Seeing a couple asterisks here and there doesn't actually change the content that I'm delivering, and my analysis is THE TRUTH. IT IS BASED IN FACTS. I literally can't twist anything, because my entire case is based on REASONABLE AND RATIONAL CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE EASILY DRAWN FROM THE FACTS OF THE GAME THAT WE HAVE IN FRONT OF US.

That's why Raziek has to fall back on emotional appeal and revisionist analysis through a biased lens to argue with me. Notice how he has been completely and utterly unable to rebut my deductions about the circumstances involving his claim and the current position we are in. All he's done is this:

- Attempt to paint me in a negative/mean light (Fallacy: emotional appeal)
- Make my points seem weaker by altering their premises or the actual content of the argument (Fallacy: strawmanning)
- Sidestep my points altogether and shift focus to a different criteria of evaluation (Fallacy: moving the goal posts)
- Attack my tone, not my content (read: Tone Fallacy/Affective Fallacy) [And he's even convinced you, Badwulf, to do it to! He's drawing you into his fallacy ridden thinking!]

Part 3 inc

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

This is my dismantling of Raziek's attempt to try and make his claim look plausible:

Alright. I'll grant him that Cop is more likely in a newbie game. However, he seems to argue that the Voyeur must have a TOWN power to interact with. (This is why he says Cop > Neighbors) But what makes that true? Consider that Voyeur essentially ACTS as a Cop in the current Neighbor set-up.

Because Rake and I do not travel, and no other Town PR does, then ANYONE the Voyeur actually sees has to be scum, which can catch scum in a massclaim. Town has a weak cop and two clears. The red, as a result, is false. Depending on when scum had to claim, they could end up trapped by the Voyeur claim regardless.

I won't disagree that Voyeur/Neighbor is STRANGE, and I won't disagree that it's weak, but it's not implausible and I certainly wouldn't put it past Soup.

Voyeur does NOT act as a Cop in a neighbor setup. Just...wow.

Let's talk about what a voyeur can see in your scenario. And let's actually think about it, and not half-assedly fake setup analysis like our friend Raziek. I'll even help you out buddy, and let us take for granted that the scum have an active PR.

The voyeur can then see two things happen: Nightkills (which is useless because seeing some get targeted with a kill is only unique info to you until the next day when they inevitably flip, since you only get the ACTION used on your target, NOT the player using the action) and the Scum PR (we can assume RBer or like framer here just for the same of example).

What kind of info then can the voyeur gather? Literally all you can reliable deduce is what the other PR is. In this case, the scum PR. That's it. You can find out what other powers are in the game as the voyeur. Pretending you can deduce anything else reliably is pure WIFOM.

Thus, we would have a red herring.

And the funniest part is, if we assume the scum have a PR in this scenario, EVEN THEIR PR IS A RED HERRING TO THEM (the scum team)!

If you're a scum team going against a voyeur and neighbors, having an RBer is USELESS. You actually come out in the negative, because the only beneficial thing to do would be to RB the voyeur. But if you knew that the voyeur was the only PR in the game, you'd know that you're BETTER OFF NOT EVEN USING YOUR PR, because then the voyeur is useless.

Having a framer/lawyer/tailor is also useless, since theres no cop.

Raziek's justification for the voyeur/neighbor setup REQUIRES that BOTH SIDES ARE GETTING RED HERRINGED (if we grant him his assumption that the scum have a PR to "justify" the voyeur). Can you see what I'm talking about here? The setup would literally be a bunch of red herrings and useless powers if the game was designed the way Raz claims it is. And it's a ****ing newbie game. Think about that. A NEWBIE GAME. I'm all for being cautious about trying to read what the mod would do, but I'm pretty confident that Soup wouldn't outfit both sides with a bunch of useless, misleading powers in a NEWBIE GAME.

I've addressed essentially all of this already. I've gone over our play supporting our Neighbors role.

All circumstantial and doesn't address the possibility that going with your fake claim was a calculated strategy, which is entirely plausible.

Also been over this, and how it isn't a red herring.

Nope, it's still definitely required to be a red herring if the setup is as you say it is. But it isn't and you're lying scum, so glad that's dealt with.

Frozenflame does not have a leg to stand on. His setup analysis is weak and circumstantial, and the only point he has that actually talks about our play is completely false.

I think this post seriously begs to differ. You can keep trying to sidestep the facts all you want, but I'll be hear to remind you that you're doing it.

Wolf, please, seriously. Just look at the facts. I've laid out all the plausible scenarios that this game can be in, and Rake/Raz legitimately being neighbors makes so little sense. Raziek is gonna sit there and just keep namecalling, framing, and using whatever non-factual appeals he can to try to get you to not listen to me and get you to ignore the facts. That's how he's trying to get you to throw this game. He even told Rake to stop trying to argue with me because he knew that Rake couldn't contend with the fact I've brought to bear, and he also knows that dancing around the evidence is tough to do without being subtle and sneaky. Seeing as how that's Raz's specialty, he pulled Rake back. He's trying to control how much of the weakness in their rebuttal I can expose. It's cold, calculated damage control, presented to you as verbal hugs, and all the reassurance you can ask for, because he knows he can't win on the facts. It's so plain and simple that I really can't believe you can't see through it Wolf.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Annoyed at slight skim of FF's posts. Will read into it after episode of Soul Eater.

 

[pawndidater2]

Finally watching it, I see.

FF, you could stand to tone it down a bit. I understand you're frustrated, but yelling isn't helping. Clearly BW is responding to the emotional appeal, legit or not.

I'll start working on my wall, expect it soon.

 

[pawndidater2]

Ugh, don't have time for a wall, too busy hanging out with an old friend all weekend. Sorry about that. I can break up what was going to be a megapost into many smaller things though. Starting with this:

Pawn then goes on to leave options open (none of which are Frozenflame).

At this point FF is confirmed town to me.

I quoted THIS post because it reads SUPER forced to me. While what he says is true, he's super wishy-washy about it and fence-sits the lynch. It reads very fake to me.

THIS post reads SUPER forced to me. He's not fence-sitting, he explicitly states he's all for it, but asks for a claim. Staying on the safe side does not equate to scum.

It's not much but more will come. When is the deadline?

 

[Raziek]

Back from Smashfest. Addressing things now.

 

[Raziek]

@BW: Rake/Raz is very obvious to me, seeing as I know Rake is scum and therefore the neighbors claim is bs. That means you and FF must be town.


I did address the case. It was mainly about his awkward posting, and I said that seemed more like newb mistakes to me, because it did. Quite honestly, the case didn't seem good enough to me, so I defended him there. This factored into my D1 investigation, because I wasn't 100% sure I was right, but I wanted to give him a chance first.

This doesn't address the content of the case. You can't just wave your hand and go "Nooob" and suddenly everyone Xiroey did is okay. You clearly and intently moved pressure away from a player whose alignment you didn't know.

This also doesn't address why you didn't cop Rake or myself, given that you were scumreading both of us.

These are directed at these quotes of mine:


I'm not sure how you get to jumpy from that. The first one is "Why do you think they should be our focus toDay?", not "OMFG WTF R U DOIN RAKE?!?"
The second is also an honest question. I couldn't see what he was getting at, so I asked why it was important. Again, not jumpy in any traditional sense of the word.

That's all I have time for right now. I'll be on tonight.

From memory, the posts were within minutes. Jumpy may be the wrong word, so it's more like reactionary. Point is, you consistently questioned pushes against the slot.

 

[Raziek]

Rake, what was that you were saying about it being a noob scum mistake to try and end the game as quickly as possible? Because your plans involve someone getting lynched, which, since you're scum, would win the game for mafia. If you could say something productive, that would be nice.

The irony in this post is astounding, given that you quick-voted and EVENTUALLY the day has to end.

The lynch wins the game for either faction, so this post is useless mudslinging at Rake.

 

[Raziek]

Same business as before. Filtering fluff in orange.

I love how I asked Badwulf to actually read my posts for understanding, and he blatantly disregarded that. Can't wait to watch you throw this game to scum Rake/Raz dude. Watching you fall for Raziek's nice guy play is laughable. You're literally eating out of the palm of his hand like an obedient child. The fact that he can emotionally manipulate you this much is both astounding and pathetic. But I digress.

You sound like Raziek. Attack the tone, not the message. Considering Raziek hasn't made a logical counterpoint to any of my arguments this entire day phase, I can see why you're following in suit. How cute.

The latter part of this post is also false, as I've clearly pointed out the intent behind every single post.

My point here was that the way rake was mischaracterizing my analysis of what the situation must be from my perspective was deliberately scummy. He LITERALLY LIED AND MISREPRESENTED WHAT I SAID. Just because I was mean about telling him how ****ing **** of a move that was doesn't mean I wasn't right.

What......? Like..... are you serious? How can you actually think this? Like, do you even think critically? At all?

Rake and Raz are claiming to be confirmed town to each other as neighbors. Why in the world would they do that if they were town and actually had no idea of the other's alignment? That would be one of the dumbest things they could possibly do, and if they are town and doing that, then they're literally throwing the game.

The only possibilities that make sense are that they are actually neighbors (which makes no sense at all if you read through my analysis) or they're scum buddies faking the claim that they're neighbors (which is a very, very easy claim to fake since it's unverifiable in endgame and doesn't require them to come up with any action history).

This part is actually true. It doesn't add anything new, but it's true.

It's either Raz/Rake or Pawn/FF.

Not other scumteam is plausible except Pawn/Wolf, which is why I'm telling you to vote Pawn, because he's in both scum-teams no matter what.
THOSE. ARE. TWO. DIFFERENT. STATEMENTS.

PLEASE THROW THE GAME HARDER, LIKE WOW

I NEVER said that everyone other than me is scum. I explicitly stated that FROM MY PERSPECTIVE, the scum team HAS to be either Rake/Raz, or Pwn/You. I'm very, very convinced that it's Rake/Raz. That IS NOT, calling "everyone other than me scum". It's just not. If you still don't understand that then you're beyond help.

Again, true. That statement by Rake was incorrect, and I had to explain to Rake why.

It's functionally the same as what I just said above. From EVERYONE's perspective, the scumteam is either Raz/Rake, or Pawn/the other player.

It can't be anything else.

A red herring is a role in that is placed in a game that is functionally useless, and meant to make the players believe that the game is designed in a given way, when it is not.

For example, putting a Shrink in a game with no recruiting roles is a red herring. Since all a shrink does is protect players from being recruited by recruiting roles, then the existence of a Shrink in a game with no recruiting roles is deliberately misleading.

In our scenario, Raz and Rake contending that they are neighbors in this setup where the only other known role is a Voyeur, REQUIRES us to assume then that the Voyeur was a red herring, and that's part of the problem I have with their claim.

Since a voyeur returns a result listing the ACTIONS used on the target player at night, if Rake and Raz are actually neighbors, then the Voyeur would literally be unable to return any useful info at night. There would be no town roles to see targeting anyone, and seeing someone about to be nightkilled via the voyeur ability is useless because they're going to die anyway.

Voyeur and Neighbors as town PRs has ZERO SYNERGY AND MAKES NO SENSE. It means that the voyeur is a red herring role. Do seriously believe Soup would deliberately troll new players in a NEWBIE GAME with a red herring role like that?

This is really the only legitimate point FF has, but it's something I have absolutely no control over. I can't tell you why Soup called us Neighbors instead of Masons. I can't tell you why this set-up looks wonky as ****.

What I can tell you is that FF is consistently avoiding the fact that there are scum PRs we don't know about. He also AGAIN avoided the fact that a Voyeur can catch a scum if they are forced to massclaim early and don't want to risk lying.

Rake was really my only town read going into today, but the claimed investigation results changed that.

My reads were mostly predicated on the assumption that one of Gaga/Kant were scum but I was wrong on both accounts there so obviously I had to take a fresh look at the game this day phase. I said earlier that if Kant came up scum I did not see either Rake or Raz as his possible partner. However, with Kant coming up town, that read is irrelevant.Based on the info we have in front of us, the only logical conclusion here based on the evidence is that Raz/Rake are trying to take us for a ride on a last minute fabricated neighbor claim.

Ok, now you're consistently and constantly changing what you are saying. Between your posts today, you have said:

1) "Raz/Rake are trying to take us for a ride on a last minute fabricated neighbor claim."

and in your VERY next post:

2)" This entire diatribe is all predicated on the assumption that you and Rake as scum buddies wouldn't have been playing the game early on in a matter consistent with a future planned fake claim of neighbors.

Wanna know a great scenario in which two scum buddies have reason to constantly link themselves to each other all game, crumb hints about being linked/confirmed, and generally not bus or distance at all?

THE SCENARIO WHERE THOSE SCUM BUDDIES DECIDED THEY WOULD PLAN TO MAKE A NEIGHBORS FAKE CLAIM"

So which is it? Did we rush the claim, or have we planned it from the beginning?

And you fail to explain (again), why I would claim Neighbors instead of Masons, if that was not the legitimate role. I have USED the role before as a host, so why would I claim something that looks weird as a fakeclaim? (Because these are not traditional neighbors).

No, it's not one point. You aren't reading. My point is much larger than just "lol the claim was bad". Not only was the claim executed in a rushed and pointless manner, but it DOESN'T MAKE ANY SENSE BASED ON THE FACTS ABOUT THE GAME THAT WE HAVE IN FRONT OF US.

This is even my ****ing opinion. This is mechanical analysis. Unbiased. Fact based. Their claim is ****ing garbage.

On to the next post...

No, it is one point.

You haven't addreseds our play at all. You've pointed out NO scum intent in any of our posts.

At the start of the day, you tried to say our play didn't support being neighbors.

Now you've changed your story, and you're saying we've clearly planned it from the beginning.

Your case is solely set-up analysis and nothing else.

 

[Raziek]

All of this is garbage. Every, last sentence.

This entire diatribe is all predicated on the assumption that you and Rake as scum buddies wouldn't have been playing the game early on in a matter consistent with a future planned fake claim of neighbors.

Wanna know a great scenario in which two scum buddies have reason to constantly link themselves to each other all game, crumb hints about being linked/confirmed, and generally not bus or distance at all?

THE SCENARIO WHERE THOSE SCUM BUDDIES DECIDED THEY WOULD PLAN TO MAKE A NEIGHBORS FAKE CLAIM

Shocker right?

Covered this inconsistency in what you're accusing us of already. Is it rushed, or planned well in advance?

Raziek sits up on his high horse and calls all of my FACT BASED ARGUEMENT "circumstantial" and "weak" when he just conveniently leaves holes in his pissant, revisionist argument here. How in the world do you get off calling my case circumstantial when your case is LITERALLY based entirely on a biased, WIFOM laden analysis of what you and Rake would have done as "neighbors" versus scum buddies.

You literally don't have a single way of confirming any of this baseless conjecture through evidence. All of your analysis ASSUMES your viewpoint, and an internal lens.

You said our play did not support being neighbors. (which you've now backpedaled on)

I went through, and pointed out literally every intent I had. That NECESSITATES it being my viewpoint, because they're MY POSTS and I'm explaining MY INTENT.

This also DOES NOT address the remainder of the case, which consists of the connections I pointed out between you and Pawn, the inconsistencies in cop-choice, and whatever else I had that I'm forgetting about.

But then you go on to act like it's not, with no substantiation. You go on to name call and strawman, with zero substantiation. You write off factual analysis like it's a joke, AND THEN you have the balls to call it circumstantial, again, with not a shred of substantiation.

The funniest part is though, is that Wolf is gonna throw the game to you, because he likes it when you talk to him nicely, give him pats on the head, and color code your posts for him. Are you sending him some chocolates too when this game ends?

Listen Wolf. I know I deliver my arguments with a rough tone. I like to tell it how it is. I'm not a sugarcoater. If you need something sugarcoated, that just means you're either too dumb or too weak to handle the truth, plain and simple. Don't write me off because I sound like a jerk. I mean cmon, it's the internet for ****s sake. Seeing a couple asterisks here and there doesn't actually change the content that I'm delivering, and my analysis is THE TRUTH. IT IS BASED IN FACTS. I literally can't twist anything, because my entire case is based on REASONABLE AND RATIONAL CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE EASILY DRAWN FROM THE FACTS OF THE GAME THAT WE HAVE IN FRONT OF US.

That's why Raziek has to fall back on emotional appeal and revisionist analysis through a biased lens to argue with me. Notice how he has been completely and utterly unable to rebut my deductions about the circumstances involving his claim and the current position we are in. All he's done is this:

- Attempt to paint me in a negative/mean light (Fallacy: emotional appeal)
- Make my points seem weaker by altering their premises or the actual content of the argument (Fallacy: strawmanning)
- Sidestep my points altogether and shift focus to a different criteria of evaluation (Fallacy: moving the goal posts)
- Attack my tone, not my content (read: Tone Fallacy/Affective Fallacy) [And he's even convinced you, Badwulf, to do it to! He's drawing you into his fallacy ridden thinking!]

Part 3 inc

1) You've pointed out NO such examples of strawmanning. You're throwing the word around hoping it will work.

2) Which one of us is emotionally appealing here? The entire orange paragraph above is emotional appeal. Entirely moot. Mafia is a game of emotions.

Listen Wolf. I know I deliver my arguments with a rough tone. I like to tell it how it is. I'm not a sugarcoater. If you need something sugarcoated, that just means you're either too dumb or too weak to handle the truth, plain and simple. Don't write me off because I sound like a jerk. I mean cmon, it's the internet for ****s sake.

3) I haven't side-stepped a damn thing, because I know perfectly well I can't explain Soup's confusing choices that are literally the only reason you have a chance to win this game. All I can do is present a less plausible, but still possible scenario to explain it.

Because you're right! I CAN'T explain why Soup has Voyeur/Neighbors. It's a dumb-ass ****ing combination. That doesn't make it false, because I'm staring at the role!

4) As for attacking tone, I'm just gonna throw in a quote here to illustrate the hypocrisy once more.

Raziek is gonna sit there and just keep namecalling, framing, and using whatever non-factual appeals he can to try to get you to not listen to me and get you to ignore the facts. That's how he's trying to get you to throw this game. He even told Rake to stop trying to argue with me because he knew that Rake couldn't contend with the fact I've brought to bear, and he also knows that dancing around the evidence is tough to do without being subtle and sneaky. Seeing as how that's Raz's specialty, he pulled Rake back. He's trying to control how much of the weakness in their rebuttal I can expose. It's cold, calculated damage control, presented to you as verbal hugs, and all the reassurance you can ask for, because he knows he can't win on the facts. It's so plain and simple that I really can't believe you can't see through it Wolf.

 

[Raziek]

The final post is entirely set-up analysis and emotional appeal.

I'm going to go quote the stuff that FF chose NOT to address from my case, since he's chosen to attack the only viable option, which is set-up analysis.

 

[Raziek]

Ugh, don't have time for a wall, too busy hanging out with an old friend all weekend. Sorry about that. I can break up what was going to be a megapost into many smaller things though. Starting with this:

At this point FF is confirmed town to me.

That much I had forgotten. I concede the point.

THIS post reads SUPER forced to me. He's not fence-sitting, he explicitly states he's all for it, but asks for a claim. Staying on the safe side does not equate to scum.

It's not much but more will come. When is the deadline?

It's forced because of his actions.

He wanted Gaga D1. He wanted GaGa D2. GaGa calls V/LA.

Making a post hoping "maybe pretty please could we get a claim" only serves to make it look like he's trying to be a concerned Townie, because he knows quite well that GaGa won't be around to actually provide that claim.

 

[Raziek]

Alright, here's everything from my case that FF chose to ignore.

Okay. First things first, let's talk about the QT. There isn't a lot to it, as I've been acting independently for the most part.

There are 14 posts:

1: Soup greets Rake and Mari.
2: Rake is apparently surprised or happy about getting neighbor, as he more or less goes "No way!"
3: Rake reminds Mari that we cannot directly quote anything from here, it must be paraphrased, and that they can discuss anything they need to.
4: Mari's first and only post, which is a simple greeting roughly amounting to "Sup guys!"
5: Rake casually responds that not much is up, and points out that Soup won't be posting because he's the mod. Asks Mari if he/she is male or female.
6: Mari's called for replacement at this point, so he says hello to me.
7: Rake's *****ing about the fact that people want to lynch him despite not doing much scummy. (Note: I disagree with this, but I'll touch on that in a second)

8: My first and only major post in the QT. Having read the thread and developed reads BEFORE I looked at my role PM, I was surprised. I said the LAST thing I expected was Town confirmed Masons with him. (Note that I say Mason here, because we are functionally masons but called neighbors goddamnit soup) I tell him to stop acting so aloof and to stop trading walls with Ran because it isn't helping. I said I only skimmed the wall, and that we can play out of his lynch without having to claim.

I indicate a few reads at this point, which were Ranmaru Town for sure, and Kantrip probably Town. I then say I need to start asking questions to get the rest of my reads in order. (This is right when I replace in around post 300)

9: I tell Rake he's free to contact me on Skype, and provide my info.

10: Rake is sad because I said his play was bad, and comments that he'll try to fix it and provide better content.

11: Says he added me on skype.

12: Rake throws out some reads. Agrees with my Ran town, has Kantrip null-town, and Xiroey at Null.

13: Holy **** this one is big. I'm not going to expand on all his reasons unless you decide it's crucial, but it's a big reads post. He has Pawn Town, Gaga as a "strange null" (contains the pre-thoughts to the case he makes on GaGa), Badwolf and Turaz in scum pile (During D1)

14: This one is just after the Turaz lynch, and he says he's going to start crumbing neighbor. He suspected one of Raz/Rake/Ran was going to get shot. Thinks Turaz lynch was good, Pawn unlikely to be scum, GaGa as possibly newb scum, and says he can defend me if Ran starts pushing during D2.

And that's all we have for it, as I haven't actually had a chance to talk to him directly, and have instead mostly been yelling at him in-thread here.

The entirety of the QT, which supports our neighbor play. He'll of course just claim I fabricated the whole thing. (Yet still claim that our claim is rushed)

Ok, gonna walk through these 1 at a time and expand on my mentality as I made each of the posts.


This one was in response to Pawn's post saying "nobody is above suspicion". This stuck out to me specifically because not only did it seem forced, but because it benefits scum to maintain a reasonable amount of suspicion on everyone. This leaves them room to push wherever goes best WITHOUT having to leave a read trail. It's hard to explain a 180 from Town to Scum. It's NOT hard to move from a Null in either direction.

This is my first post where I indicate that I know I'm not planning to lynch Rake. I was also kind of unsure on Turaz, but this post was designed to grab some reads from Gaga on OTHER players, to get people to leave a paper trail.

This is my rapid-fire questions post that I do in most games. I decided not to touch Rake's huge wall because I knew the post was *** and that's why I berated him in the QT for it. Trying to defend it would have more likely led towards his lynch, so I just ignored it.

What I want you to note is that I ask both Ran and Kantrip about Rake, because I'm trying to develop reads on them. I already know Rake is Town, so by seeing what they think I can gauge their intent and see who's legitimately trying to figure it out.

I also proceed to ask questions to Xiroey, Turaz, Pawn, and Gaga. This puts me at having asked SIX different players questions. There are only two players I didn't directly address. Rake, because I already know his alignment, and you, because I hated your early posts and skimmed over most of them. You weren't a priority for me then.


Rather than edit stuff selectively, I'll color what matters. The top section is me passively trying to defend Rake and move discussion away from him without outright chainsawing him.

The green is quite obviously, me making up excuses not to lynch Rake. I'm careful here not to say he's Town, because I CANNOT SUPPORT THAT claim at this point. If I straight up said "Rake's Town.", I'd without question get a "Why?", and then I'd have problems.

This is the first time I strongarm the lynch, because I know Rake it Town already. This draws out some reactions from GaGa and Pawn.

This post was defending Rake. The Green is me working on a Gaga read. I wanted to see if Scum GaGa could be baited into trying to force a push on me. GaGa backed off of this, so I let it drop.

Discussion surrounding Rake falls off at this point and we go on to lynch Turaz.


These two are Rake playing his half of the crumb/neighbor play.

Again, I do what I did before. I don't call Rake Town in the TEXT or elaborate on reasoning for it, but this time I place him squarely in my Town pile.


This is in response to Pawn. I wanted to see if he'd try to piggyback Ran's suspicion of us by trying to force a scumteam out of us. "Square peg into a round hole", so to speak. He considered it, but the support he provided was weak, only mentioning that he brought it up because Ran did.


This post is a really important one. This is when I ask FF what he thinks about not being shot.

I asked this because it narrows a lot of things down for me. See, I'm one of the people that obviously knows about Frozenflame's reputation. If I was that afraid of him, I could have easily shot him on Night 1. Regrettably, it's possible to assign scum motivation to the Ran shot as well. Ran was pushing both Rake and I. The shot itself is null, but again, the reason I pointed it out was because of a rough rule. "FF gets shot, or he's scum." (Or, in this case, the scum don't know his reputation.)

This is again, before we actually claim. Note that he puts me very late in the claim order and directs a watcher on me.


This post, I'm going to talk about separately, as I'm going to go much further in depth on why I claimed when I did.

Talked about this already. He tried to ignore all this by saying it's a "biased analysis". See the top part of my 716.

Okay. So right now we're gonna talk about intent.

Remember how I said I had a bad feeling about the GaGa lynch? That's when I had it. I realized that if we were wrong again, Rake and I looked REAL BAD for jumping on that wagon. When Kantrip mentioned it would be LyLo, I realized we could end up in some real hot water. Rather than leave things up to chance on one of us getting shot, I decided it was worthwhile to claim it before the day ended.

The decision to claim was rushed. I didn't have much time, we were in Twilight. However, the claim was planned LONG in advance, as I showed in my last post, where I walk through all of my intent.

Now, Frozenflame is casting the Raz/Rake scumteam. In order to do so, one would need to show scum intent in my connections with Rake.

But here's the problem I have with that. I DIRECTLY, CONSISTENTLY and CONSTANTLY link myself to Rake.

I'm not a bad player. I'm not amazing by any stretch of the imagination, but I'm damn well smart enough to know when I should consider bussing a partner or attempt to distance myself from him.

Did you see any distancing? I literally never ask Rake a single question in thread. Not once. If I was scum, I'd want to fake those interactions so I like Town. But here's the thing. Scum do that because if one of them flips, they want the other one to not be directly linked to them based on their interactions. So they try to look like a Townie interacting with a scummy.

But I don't distance myself from Rake at all, because I KNOW if one of us flips, it clears the other and absolves all doubt. I didn't have to distance. I didn't have to fake anything. Because.... I'm not scum. I knew he'd flip Town, so I don't have to worry a DAMN THING about my connections to him.

If I had been scum in that position, I'd consider setting myself up for a possible bus. Rake was currently being looked at for a lynch, and I could have easily sidelined and bussed him if I needed to. But I didn't. I stuck my neck out for him. Why? Because I'm not afraid to be linked to him on his flip.

It's pretty simple.

I'm going to leave it at this, for the moment. Wolf, please read it all, and ask me any questions you need to. If and when you want me to continue, I'll talk about Pawn and Frozenflame specifically, but I think this section is most important to put out there first.

I'm out for now. We have plenty of time to walk through all this, and even have a deadline extension if we need it.

He addressed this section in his 707. My rebuttal is in 715/716.

Moving on to FF's 456. This post comes right after my reads post in 455, where I note some suspicion of you and GaGa.

Important is that he sets up GaGa and Kantrip as a scumteam, he takes a good deal of wishy-washy stance on GaGa, while not actually substantiating his Kantrip read. Though he says he'll substantiate later, I don't believe he actually does. I'll see if it comes up in the quotes, I quoted most everything relevant he said.

Even MORE important here is what I highlighted in yellow. He blatantly defends Pawn in practically exactly the same manner than Pawn defended Xiroey. He again pulls the noob card and doesn't really substantiate otherwise.

Frozenflame resumes his push of the previously mentioned GaGa/Kantrip scumteam, which he brought up on D1. Knowing now that they're both Town, I find it scummy that he claims our play was obvious and our claim is BS, given that such a direct defense of Rake on my part should have drawn his attention, but he makes no mention of it whatsoever.

He also goes out of his way to dissuade anything Ran said, which includes the previous attacks by Ran on Xiroey, who as we know, FF replaced.

This was my post towards FF and Pawn together. I talked about the Pawn section earlier, and how he's pushing for the scumteam of the two of us.

Note the yellow. You can't see the quote, but if you go to the post itself, he's responding to my question directed at (you guessed it), Frozenflame, once again having the quick reaction towards any suspicion of the slot. (See, Xiroey case D1 and Rake wanting FF at start of D2.)

Kantrip starts to catch onto the scent that I did in his 519. I can't really blame him for scumreading Rake here, but he starts to see what I was getting at with the question.

Okay! Big post here. Frozenflame makes his move to push for Kantrip/GaGa. Pawn moves back to null, but is no longer a focus of discussion as most people are townreading Pawn at this point.

Now note his reads. Everyone is Null except his scumreads (GaGa/Kant) and Rake (Town). That leaves a LOT of backdoors.

Looking at his discussion of pairings, he also says he doesn't see Raz/Rake (yet is pushing us now), and says that Rake and I are OPPOSITE ALIGNMENTS in either situation he sees.

We end up wheeling around to GaGa as a result of Rake's first vote, then B/W and Pawn jumping on there as well.

I quoted THIS post because it reads SUPER forced to me. While what he says is true, he's super wishy-washy about it and fence-sits the lynch. It reads very fake to me.


This was right after Rake and I claimed. Unfortunately, Kantrip doesn't elaborate, so I can't justify his thought process, but he went where I went. (And then died)
What motivation do I have to shoot Kantrip after a post like this? If I'm scum I know GaGa will flip Town, and I could have easily rode that momentum.
Going to move on to the posts of toDay now.

Absolutely nothing in this section was addressed by Frozenflame.

Which is funny, because it's almost entirely his posts. He doesn't try to defend his actions at all, and is just pushing the set-up analysis point.

Let's talk about these. What FF says is, again, a plausible explanation for Pawn's investigation. However, look at what he says in context.

With respect to the first paragraph, investigating Xiroey. FF's reasoning is legitimate, but where it doesn't fill the holes is how Pawn treats the slot on Day 2. If (as FF claims), Pawn now knows that he is Town... why is Pawn still so jumpy when Rake moves in that direction? If it got close to a lynch, Pawn could simply claim his result. Instead, we see the nervous behavior that I claim is more fitting of a scumteam.

On the second paragraph, again, completely plausible. However, I then ask why Pawn wouldn't have copped one of us on Night 1? He didn't trust my defense of Rake, and he certainly didn't trust Rake. Why would TownPawn not follow Ran's lead and investigate one of us? TownPawn had already said at this point that we could worry about Xiroey's replacement later, so why would he investigate FF before us? He's new, so he doesn't know FF's reputation. Nobody had mentioned it at that point.

The order of the investigations doesn't make sense.

This entire post is essentially worthless.

I'm not ********. I know what a masonry is. My first game that I HOSTED as a mod (Skies of Arcadia mafia) contained a pair of masons. I'm well familiar with the role.

Do you honestly think that I would botch a claim on something as frivolous as the name of the role. We claimed the role name IN the CRUMBS. We claimed what it is.

Yes, I know how a Neighborizer works. We're not Neighborizers, though. We're Neighbors. As in, already neighborized. Which functionally makes us masons with a dumb name.

EITHER WAY, this entire post is nitpicking entirely over a point that I'm far better than to make a mistake on. My first game ever I pulled off a TOWN ALIGNED INDY claim that I carefully constructed in excruciating detail. I almost won Majora's Mask mafia as Indy with a fakeclaim!

Do you really think I'd **** up the name of a masonry?

Alright. I'm gonna filter the personal attacks and fluff in orange here.


This part is true.

Been over this already.

Also been over this, and how it isn't a red herring.


The entire rest of this post may as well be orange. He's just rehashing the same stuff.

Frozenflame does not have a leg to stand on. His setup analysis is weak and circumstantial, and the only point he has that actually talks about our play is completely false.

I already THOROUGHLY showed all of the interactions between Rake and I, and how that supports our neighbor claim.

At this point, I have said all that I feel needs to be said.

None of this was addressed at all either.

Done posting for now, but it should be pretty clear that for one accusing me of side-stepping the points, FF is doing quite a bit of it himself.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Raz, was it just you and Rake who were Neighbors?