Newbie 24 - SMT: Devil Survivor LAW IS VICTORIOUS #1 CHAOS LOSES AHAHAHAH

[pawndidater2]

You were in Tokyo on business but you're son got sick and you got stuck here while he gets an operation. You're desperate to get any help you can and be there for your son.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Apparently my character is : enthusiastic, with a cheery attitude on life. I try to be happy but can't. I decide to team with someone during this crisis so it can be easier on my soul.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

"Hey let's lose!"

No. I'm hearing everything first.

 

[pawndidater2]

Apparently my character is : enthusiastic, with a cheery attitude on life. I try to be happy but can't. I decide to team with someone during this crisis so it can be easier on my soul.

...how can you be enthusiastic and cheery but at the same time unable to be happy?

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

...how can you be enthusiastic and cheery but at the same time unable to be happy?

Let's not care about flavour please.

 

[pawndidater2]

Let's not care about flavour please.

I know, it's just awkward.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

i don't know. Maybe this person is bipolar, i never claimed to understand this flavor

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

So your saying in one breath that me and Raz are scum, but that in another Wulf is too.

So everyone is scum but you & Pawn.

Huh.

Clearly you have no idea how to read. Nor do you have any idea what this game looks like from a townies perspective, even if I happen to be wrong and you are one.

I said there are two possibilities here from my perspective. Either you and Raz are lying and are thus scum buddies, OR pwn is lying, which means his partner must be wulf. How the **** is that so hard to understand?

I never said everyone other than me is scum. I said that THOSE ARE THE TWO POSSIBILITIES FROM MY PERSPECTIVE. The scum team has to be one of those two pairings, end of ****ing story.

Okay , just no on this set up analysis crap. Just because a cop would seem reasonable, does not make it so by any stretch. What exactly does targeting have to do with anything ? Neighbours are arguably just as good, providing they play right, it's two town clears , Voyuer works just as well. The voyeur being a possible "red herring" or "********" does not equate us to scum. Just because something fits nicely, does not make it so, you and I have no idea how soup set this game up, all we have is our roles to go by and since me and Raz are town here, your arguing using set up analysis to try and fool people into thinking : well that makes a little sense so...

This is seriously saddening. I thought you understood mafia game design better than this rake. Disappointing. Or maybe you're just floundering scum under pressure and this isn't actually what you would think as town. Idk. Anyway, let me hold you hand here.

First of all, determining what MAKES SENSE and SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE is absolutely a good idea for discussion and analysis. You just dismissing setup analysis like it means nothing is a PERFECT indicator that you know that your claim is ****ing bogus and doesn't make ANY SENSE based on what we know of the setup, and thus, you want to limit the amount of scrutiny people have for your claim and the setup in general.

You're fundamentally missing the point about the voyeur. A voyeur's power is to target a player at night, and then if that targeted player is also targeted by any other powers, the voyeur will see what powers targeted that play.

Example:

Voyeur targets player A.
Doc targets player A.
Cop targets player A.

Voyeur would get this result: Cop, Doctor or something like "investigated, protected".

But guess what? According to your claim, you and Raz don't target anyone at all. That's the way a normal friendly neighbor works, but not you guys apparently, according to you own claim (read: bogus claim).

If your claim is true and you're neighbors, and if pwn is lying about being cop, then the setup would have a voyeur in it with NO OTHER ****ING POWERS TO EVEN DETECT. The role would be a red herring. A red herring in a newbie game? Unless you're seriously trying to contend that soup would deliberately troll new players with a useless red herring role in a ****ing noobie game, you have no case. And if you did, it'd be a really, really bad one.

Sure, the fact that your claim makes no sense doesn't guarantee that you're scum, but last time I checked, analysing claims for their legitimacy is a really ****ing good way to scum hunt. That's what I'm doing right now. Just because you ****ing claim you're a "neighbor" doesn't make you one, just like my setup analysis doesn't MAKE you scum. However, my analysis here certainly shows why it's MUCH MORE LIKELY AND REASONABLE to deduce that your claim is bull****, because it doesn't make ANY SENSE based on what else we know of the game. Cop makes WAYYYYY more sense, and that's based on objective analysis of what the power role in the game that we KNOW EXISTED FOR SURE does MECHANICALLY. That's not even debatable.

Yeah, we rushed it, why ? Because town NEEDED that information, regardless of Gaga's flip. Also, your personal opinion of how me and Raz interacted does not make it so, in fact, I don't see how you get to scum buddying vs two townies who know each other's alignment. Raz's interactions were much more heavy towards knowing my alignment then mine were tbh, but I still made sure to never let Raz waver from being town because I knew it to be so.

Care to explain how we needed that info again? I seriously follow you.

I also wasn't saying that your interactions make me think you're def scum. Your claim makes me think that. My point about your interactions is that they don't seem like the way confirmed townies would interact. Of course it doesn't prove anything, but it lends to my doubt of your claim. You say you've been confirmed town to each other. I say your play doesn't reflect that type of knowledge, which makes me think you're lying about the claim. How is that so hard to understand?

Voyuer subverts my expectation of cop entirely.

We're freaking out because this cop claim is an obvious scum tactic

The voyeur flip changing your expectations is fair. I understand that. It also makes sense though that you fake claimed neighbors expecting there to be a cop/tracker (both of which would still have value even if your claim was legit) and then when the voyeur flipped you freaked because you didn't realize how much that flip would fly in the face of your claim. Voyeur and neighbors as you've described them DON'T MAKE ANY SENSE AS A PR PAIRING FOR THE TOWN IN THIS SETUP.

So yeah, I can understand your flip flop on the cop expectation, but it, doesn't help reconcile your claim's obvious conflict with all the other info we have.

More like, this info is important to town right now.

Maybe if Raz worded it that way I'd believe you. But he didn't. I ****ing quoted his post. Like come the **** on, it's the WIFOMiest **** I've ever seen.

And what your doing right now is a classic scum move, your trying to swing me and Raz's early claim in a scummy manner by arguing that because we are both alive, we must be scum. Of course we are both alive, by claiming yesterday we ran the risk of being wrong on Gaga and having this exact situation happen, where the real scum tries some half baked gambit to lynch us neighbours.

I'm not trying to swing your claim in a scummy manner at all. The GAME FACTS THAT WE HAVE IN FRONT OF US SHOW YOUR CLAIMS SCUMMINESS. I'm just putting the pieces together so it's easy for everyone to see and understand. You're the one who's trying to cover up and dismiss my accurate, logical and concrete analysis. Now THAT'S a classic scum tactic.

And where in the ****ing world did I argue that you must be scum because you're both alive? Like what? I never said that once. Thanks for putting words in my mouth though, pretty townie move there bro (/sarcasm).

Like seriously now you're just trying to make **** up to make me look bad.

@ BadWolf: Please seriously sit down and read my posts very carefully. Read my analysis for good understanding. You'll easily be able to see that I'm simply presenting FACTS about the setup and what makes sense. Don't let rake just twist my words and spout FUD at you. Just please read for good understanding. I really, really want to believe that you and pwn aren't scum together and that I'm right about Rake and Raz here, so don't do scummy bull**** like skimming and not actually understanding our situation.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

EBWOP: wrt to my response to the 3rd quote box @ rake, I meant to say I "seriously DON'T follow you".

 

[Raziek]

Ok. I'm home from my exam. Are you here currently, Badwolf?

 

[Raziek]

Also, FF claim. Gimme.

Rake, shut your hole. We're not going to win this for Town by you getting into a shouting match with Frozenflame. That's exactly what we want to avoid, because he's already turned it confrontational and loaded his posts with profanities and belligerent fluff.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Mkay, as you say then.

Won't be here till 7ish my time, I'll be busy lifting

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Rake, shut your hole. We're not going to win this for Town by you getting into a shouting match with Frozenflame. That's exactly what we want to avoid, because he's already turned it confrontational and loaded his posts with profanities and belligerent fluff.

Hahahaha wow. I lay out a logical, reasonable, and fact based rebuttal to Rake's outlandish accusations against me, and Raz comes in and trys to bad mouth it with the big holier than thou ethical appeal. "Lol FF swore n stuff look how mad and angry he is, disregard what he's saying guiz". Can't say I'm suprised by that strategy choice Raz, very predicatable.

"Belligerant fluff" my ass. I'd love to see you try to expand on that baseless name calling.

As for my claim, I'm VT obviously.

I'm the cute girl with glasses trope, who cosplays and fights for justice, etc.

 

[Raziek]

Alright, Badwolf. Here's how I'm going to handle this situation with you.

Right now, we can see that Frozenflame is throwing Ad-Hominem attacks at Rake and I rather than addressing content. While he does have some content in his 623, I will be addressing it as I go along. I will not, however, be directly responding to him or asking him questions, because that devolves into a ****-flinging contest. This happens almost every time Ryker is in a game, especially in LyLo. The points become straight arguing rather than anything rational.

So, what I'm going to do for you, as you must be the last remaining Town, is I'm going to walk you through my entire thought process. I just re-read the entire thread start to finish, and I have noted everything I plan to talk about. You're going to get a literal copy/paste of my notes in a moment. I'll address and paraphrase the QT in my next series of posts, which I'm going to make as digestible as possible, but will admittedly require some reading on your part.

Now, before I organize them into coherent posts, here are my notes:

[collapse="Raz's Notes"]
Pawndidater: Cop. Description sounds like Honda. Post 641.
Rake: Neighbor. Enthusiastic, cheery attitude on life. Tries to be happy but can't.
Raz. Neighbor. Introspective, very few close friends.
Turaz. VT. 240. Sounds like Gin. 475. Definitely Gin.
FF. 653. Sounds like Midori.

**** to Address:

Vague Flavor matching.
Need to do a big section on my play lining up with neighbor claim.

BIG NOTE, FROZENFLAME #551, FF 456 (Right after my 455 reads post), 504, FF 515, 561 super forced
PAWN 409, 481 (after Rake 480), 511 (after my 510)
Kantrip 519, 589
My 544

Neighbor claim posts:

299 replace in. 301, 302, 303, 313, 320, 334, RAKE 430, 434, 455, 510, 543, Rake 571, my 582

Tackle FF 623, 624.

QT transcript.
[/collapse]

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

I can transcribe the QT to make your life easier Raz.

There are like , what , 9 posts ? 5 of which are by me lol, if i recall right.

 

[Raziek]

Okay. First things first, let's talk about the QT. There isn't a lot to it, as I've been acting independently for the most part.

There are 14 posts:

1: Soup greets Rake and Mari.
2: Rake is apparently surprised or happy about getting neighbor, as he more or less goes "No way!"
3: Rake reminds Mari that we cannot directly quote anything from here, it must be paraphrased, and that they can discuss anything they need to.
4: Mari's first and only post, which is a simple greeting roughly amounting to "Sup guys!"
5: Rake casually responds that not much is up, and points out that Soup won't be posting because he's the mod. Asks Mari if he/she is male or female.
6: Mari's called for replacement at this point, so he says hello to me.
7: Rake's ******** about the fact that people want to lynch him despite not doing much scummy. (Note: I disagree with this, but I'll touch on that in a second)

8: My first and only major post in the QT. Having read the thread and developed reads BEFORE I looked at my role PM, I was surprised. I said the LAST thing I expected was Town confirmed Masons with him. (Note that I say Mason here, because we are functionally masons but called neighbors goddamnit soup) I tell him to stop acting so aloof and to stop trading walls with Ran because it isn't helping. I said I only skimmed the wall, and that we can play out of his lynch without having to claim.

I indicate a few reads at this point, which were Ranmaru Town for sure, and Kantrip probably Town. I then say I need to start asking questions to get the rest of my reads in order. (This is right when I replace in around post 300)

9: I tell Rake he's free to contact me on Skype, and provide my info.

10: Rake is sad because I said his play was bad, and comments that he'll try to fix it and provide better content.

11: Says he added me on skype.

12: Rake throws out some reads. Agrees with my Ran town, has Kantrip null-town, and Xiroey at Null.

13: Holy **** this one is big. I'm not going to expand on all his reasons unless you decide it's crucial, but it's a big reads post. He has Pawn Town, Gaga as a "strange null" (contains the pre-thoughts to the case he makes on GaGa), Badwolf and Turaz in scum pile (During D1)

14: This one is just after the Turaz lynch, and he says he's going to start crumbing neighbor. He suspected one of Raz/Rake/Ran was going to get shot. Thinks Turaz lynch was good, Pawn unlikely to be scum, GaGa as possibly newb scum, and says he can defend me if Ran starts pushing during D2.

And that's all we have for it, as I haven't actually had a chance to talk to him directly, and have instead mostly been yelling at him in-thread here.

 

[Raziek]

I can transcribe the QT to make your life easier Raz.

There are like , what , 9 posts ? 5 of which are by me lol, if i recall right.

Thanks for the offer, but welp. Post what you have in progress if you've got it, just leave it unfinished.

 

[Raziek]

Ok. Next post is going to be talking about how both my (and Rake's) play lines up with our neighbor claim, rather than a scum claim.

This will be covering the series of posts that I list under "neighbor claim". Going to go start quoting things now.

 

[Raziek]

Ok, gonna walk through these 1 at a time and expand on my mentality as I made each of the posts.

I'd like to inquire about this.

What prompted you to post this line? Does paranoia benefit you in some way?

Consider that mafia is a game of trust, in many ways. Is there benefit to trusting someone as a Townie? What about as scum?

This one was in response to Pawn's post saying "nobody is above suspicion". This stuck out to me specifically because not only did it seem forced, but because it benefits scum to maintain a reasonable amount of suspicion on everyone. This leaves them room to push wherever goes best WITHOUT having to leave a read trail. It's hard to explain a 180 from Town to Scum. It's NOT hard to move from a Null in either direction.

Oh hey Ninja.

I like the way you post, GaGa.

If you had to lynch someone not named Rake or Turaz, who would it be and why?

This is my first post where I indicate that I know I'm not planning to lynch Rake. I was also kind of unsure on Turaz, but this post was designed to grab some reads from Gaga on OTHER players, to get people to leave a paper trail.

Alright. I'm not even going to touch Rake's 299 with a 10-foot pole.

I like to take a question-oriented route to things, so let's get some dialogue going.

Ran: I trust you more than most of the cast right now. What does that tell you, and how do you think I came to that conclusion?

Short and sweet, what do you think about Rake? If you had to pick 5 key posts that form your read on him, what are they?

Kantrip: Same deal on Rake. Additionally, I want you to talk to me about Turaz. Is he scum? If so, why?

Xiroey, Turaz, Pawndidater, GaGa: I'd like your top 2 lynch choices for today, with bullet point reasoning.

This is my rapid-fire questions post that I do in most games. I decided not to touch Rake's huge wall because I knew the post was ass and that's why I berated him in the QT for it. Trying to defend it would have more likely led towards his lynch, so I just ignored it.

What I want you to note is that I ask both Ran and Kantrip about Rake, because I'm trying to develop reads on them. I already know Rake is Town, so by seeing what they think I can gauge their intent and see who's legitimately trying to figure it out.

I also proceed to ask questions to Xiroey, Turaz, Pawn, and Gaga. This puts me at having asked SIX different players questions. There are only two players I didn't directly address. Rake, because I already know his alignment, and you, because I hated your early posts and skimmed over most of them. You weren't a priority for me then.

Well, I said I wasn't going to act as an IC, but for the purposes it's relevant.

In the context of mafia, a gambit involves deliberately acting strange in order to provoke reactions to obtain reads. This could involve claiming false information (Like a cop guilty, to see who bites and jumps on the wagon), or simply acting odd.

The reason I brought this up is because you seem to be stuck on Rake's drastic shift in behavior. I can't say for certain if it's a gambit or not, but I wanted to make you aware that an abrupt change of behavior isn't necessarily scummy. In this case, it could be, because as people have brought up, Rake was rather passive earlier. Sometimes it's simply a matter of playstyle.

Trying to look more Townie is both a Town motive and a scum one. Importantly, Rake started applying more pressure and actively scumhunting, which I think is pro-Town. I don't approve of his wall-trading with Ran, nor the excessively aloof and posturing nature of his recent posts, but I think the claim that he's scum may be hasty.

I'm intentionally holding some of my cards at the moment, as I'm still forming opinions, and I don't want scum playing around my reads. T'll give you three. I think Ran is Town, I think Pawn is Town, and I think the Rake push is forming for the wrong reasons.

There's too much visible consensus on Rake. That's usually a bad sign if the person is not OBVIOUS scum. Means scum is likely on the wagon, and I doubt very strongly scum would bus Rake on D1, when Turaz is a much easier and more obtainable lynch.

I need to talk to more people before I'm sure. Yes, I'm caught up, but I'm still drawing the outlines for my "picture" of the game, so to speak. Most importantly, I need to hear from Kantrip and Xiroey. I'd also like to hear from Badwolf, but he's less on my radar at the moment.

Rather than edit stuff selectively, I'll color what matters. The top section is me passively trying to defend Rake and move discussion away from him without outright chainsawing him.

The green is quite obviously, me making up excuses not to lynch Rake. I'm careful here not to say he's Town, because I CANNOT SUPPORT THAT claim at this point. If I straight up said "Rake's Town.", I'd without question get a "Why?", and then I'd have problems.

We're not lynching Rake. More later possibly. Got some schoolwork to do, and Monster Hunter to play.

This is the first time I strongarm the lynch, because I know Rake it Town already. This draws out some reactions from GaGa and Pawn.

It's called confidence, learn to deal.

If we have two lynches and one is much better than the other, I'm not going to let the wrong one get pushed through.

Besides, I just got here and I've already generated more content than have the playerlist. Or would you like to suggest that any of this somehow makes me scum?

What exactly makes me sounds suspicious?

This post was defending Rake. The Green is me working on a Gaga read. I wanted to see if Scum GaGa could be baited into trying to force a push on me. GaGa backed off of this, so I let it drop.

Discussion surrounding Rake falls off at this point and we go on to lynch Turaz.

Plus Canadians are rarely scumbags.

Being the bro's that we are. Neighbors to the north amirite ?

(Except for Kantrip the last couple times I've been in a game with him, must be all that weed BC'ers smoke. )

Spoiler

I mean think about it POTtassium. Can't be a coincidence

Nah ,I think Raz is a bro. It's a gut read but I feel pretty good about Raz. I think it's because he came in thread from an inactive Mari and instantly strong-armed my lynch down. From a scm POV i'd think it'd be easy for him to bs up enough content to substantiate voting on me.

That being said investigating stronger players is never a bad choice, so it's up to the discretion of said investigative role on what they want.

These two are Rake playing his half of the crumb/neighbor play.

Caught up.

Reads:

Town

Kantrip
Rake
Pawn

Null
Ran
Xiroey

Scumleans

GaGa
Badwolf

All my thoughts are lining up with Kantrip's reasoning, which is usually a good sign. Same with Pawn for the most part.

Ran's giving me some weird feels from Kantrip/Ran and the Xiroey push. Still a townlean, but I'm keeping an eye on that one.

I still hate Badwolf's total lack of content. What he did produce was recycled and weak.

GaGa.... I need time to put my problems here into words. I have a problem in particular with the pushes made by this slot. Not seeing a hell of a lot of pro-Town intent.

Gotta dip, spending the evening with a friend. Here's hoping for a scumflip.

Again, I do what I did before. I don't call Rake Town in the TEXT or elaborate on reasoning for it, but this time I place him squarely in my Town pile.

You're casting a solution to fit the problem.

Question for you:

If I was scum with Rake, would it do me much good to come in balls deep and defend him against the push that was made on him? If he were to flip scum later, that'd look really bad on me, right? It'd have been much easier for me simply to push in a different direction, rather than draw a lot of attention to myself while actively defending him.

Does our play make sense as a scumteam to you?

Can you tell me more about your Frozenflame scum read? Which posts in particular cause you to lean towards scum?

This is in response to Pawn. I wanted to see if he'd try to piggyback Ran's suspicion of us by trying to force a scumteam out of us. "Square peg into a round hole", so to speak. He considered it, but the support he provided was weak, only mentioning that he brought it up because Ran did.

EBWOP:

Forgot this section. It's relevant because Frozenflame is a very strong player, but this is a newbie game, so not everyone is aware of his reputation. He's often shot Night 1 JUST because he's Frozenflame. The fact that he hasn't been shot N1 can be attributed to a number of factors, but none of them provide me with anything concrete right now. I was moreso probing for a reaction.

This post is a really important one. This is when I ask FF what he thinks about not being shot.

I asked this because it narrows a lot of things down for me. See, I'm one of the people that obviously knows about Frozenflame's reputation. If I was that afraid of him, I could have easily shot him on Night 1. Regrettably, it's possible to assign scum motivation to the Ran shot as well. Ran was pushing both Rake and I. The shot itself is null, but again, the reason I pointed it out was because of a rough rule. "FF gets shot, or he's scum." (Or, in this case, the scum don't know his reputation.)

I'd like to remind our town PR's to use their power's over the night phase. If your a cop, do not cop the same person as last night, if you are a tracker, same applies.

IF Gaga was town, we are at 5 alive tomorrow with 2 scum still alive, making it mylo, which I will explain tomorrow.

If tomorrow is mylo, we are starting the claim train, the order will be:

Me
Wulf
Kantplay
Pawn
Raz
FF

If you disagree with this order, state what you would like to see.

I feel like the cop/tracker should be on either FF/Kantrip/Badwulf.

If the PR is a watcher, watch one of Me/Raz/Kantrip toNight IMO.

I want everyone's directions for tomorrow before Soup has the flip up.

For me it'll be Potassium/FF/Possibly BW

This is again, before we actually claim. Note that he puts me very late in the claim order and directs a watcher on me.

I'm going to say this now, in the event that we're wrong. The benefits outweigh the cons.

Rake and I are confirmed Town to each other as Town Neighbors. This is the main reason I came in defending him.

I am saying this now so it isn't misconstrued as a gambit tomorrow.

This post, I'm going to talk about separately, as I'm going to go much further in depth on why I claimed when I did.

 

[Raziek]

I'm going to say this now, in the event that we're wrong. The benefits outweigh the cons.

Rake and I are confirmed Town to each other as Town Neighbors. This is the main reason I came in defending him.

I am saying this now so it isn't misconstrued as a gambit tomorrow.

Okay. So right now we're gonna talk about intent.

Remember how I said I had a bad feeling about the GaGa lynch? That's when I had it. I realized that if we were wrong again, Rake and I looked REAL BAD for jumping on that wagon. When Kantrip mentioned it would be LyLo, I realized we could end up in some real hot water. Rather than leave things up to chance on one of us getting shot, I decided it was worthwhile to claim it before the day ended.

The decision to claim was rushed. I didn't have much time, we were in Twilight. However, the claim was planned LONG in advance, as I showed in my last post, where I walk through all of my intent.

Now, Frozenflame is casting the Raz/Rake scumteam. In order to do so, one would need to show scum intent in my connections with Rake.

But here's the problem I have with that. I DIRECTLY, CONSISTENTLY and CONSTANTLY link myself to Rake.

I'm not a bad player. I'm not amazing by any stretch of the imagination, but I'm damn well smart enough to know when I should consider bussing a partner or attempt to distance myself from him.

Did you see any distancing? I literally never ask Rake a single question in thread. Not once. If I was scum, I'd want to fake those interactions so I like Town. But here's the thing. Scum do that because if one of them flips, they want the other one to not be directly linked to them based on their interactions. So they try to look like a Townie interacting with a scummy.

But I don't distance myself from Rake at all, because I KNOW if one of us flips, it clears the other and absolves all doubt. I didn't have to distance. I didn't have to fake anything. Because.... I'm not scum. I knew he'd flip Town, so I don't have to worry a DAMN THING about my connections to him.

If I had been scum in that position, I'd consider setting myself up for a possible bus. Rake was currently being looked at for a lynch, and I could have easily sidelined and bussed him if I needed to. But I didn't. I stuck my neck out for him. Why? Because I'm not afraid to be linked to him on his flip.

It's pretty simple.

I'm going to leave it at this, for the moment. Wolf, please read it all, and ask me any questions you need to. If and when you want me to continue, I'll talk about Pawn and Frozenflame specifically, but I think this section is most important to put out there first.

I'm out for now. We have plenty of time to walk through all this, and even have a deadline extension if we need it.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Going to be here in 30 mins. On mobile right now and I'm not reading those beast walls on this.

 

[Raziek]

No worries. Take your time. They look bigger on mobile than they actually are, and it's mostly quotes. I don't say entirely too much, just a few sentences about each quote.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Wow Raz. You seriously have no shame do you?

You blatantly strawman me, accuse me of ad hominem, and generally just frame me in a negative light, all while saying I have "no content".

Oh right, because doing all those things is totally "content", isn't it Raz? Just labelling and name calling me without even refuting a single post of mine, is totally genuine content coming from you, Mr. Squeeky clean nice guy.

Oh wait, you're just trying to create a guise of being the "Nice guy" while using underhanded emotional appeals to make people more agreeable to you despite not having ANY rebuttal for ANY of my points. At all.

That's grimy dude, straight up grimy. And manipulative too.

Plus I've committed no ad hominem so now you're just straight lying about me too. Always fun to watch people lie with smiles on their metaphorical faces.

I can't believe you guys are literally resorting to just trying to right me off and not engage me. And then I get called the one without content and the one committing fallacies. What a ****ing joke.

 

[Raziek]

That post is so blatantly hypocritical, but you have to realize something:

1) I've already identified how to win this game.
2) I'm not going to be baited into taking that.
3) I don't have to talk to you to win.

I can sit here and talk to Badwolf ABOUT your posts while you sit behind a plate-glass window and froth at the mouth because you're scrambling.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

>calls me a hypocrite
>can't even explain how
>mfw

And the name calling continues. Sweet Raz.

Oh right, being the only person with a fact based case that doesn't relay on coloured commentary on past actions from an extremely limited lens is exactly the type of situation that sends me "frothing at the mouth" and "scrambling".

Sure you don't have to talk to me. But you're effectively conceding that you have no legitimate response to my reasoning here. I can't force you to try and engage me, but don't act like you've got me cornered when in fact you're the one cowering away from me. Like seriously you frame so blatantly it hurts.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Don't care enough to do quote tags right now, plus it's going to be a ***** shifting through this ****storm. Basically anything that has quotes around it, isn't my text. Also going to cuss a lot, haven't had the best of days and really ****ing tired.

"Clearly you have no idea how to read. Nor do you have any idea what this game looks like from a townies perspective, even if I happen to be wrong and you are one."

Aggro as ****, don't like it even if you are town. Throwing **** at each other is only adding more ****.

"I said there are two possibilities here from my perspective. Either you and Raz are lying and are thus scum buddies, OR pwn is lying, which means his partner must be wulf. How the **** is that so hard to understand?"

Actually, no. Pwn could not be lying and Raz could be his scum buddy. I have thought that Raz/Rake are taking a big chance and are not actual Neighbors and just know each other to be town. I don't want to believe it, but it's possible.
"I never said everyone other than me is scum."

You explicitly said either Pwn/me or Raz/Rake was scum team. Pretty ****ing clear to me.

"The role would be a red herring. A red herring in a newbie game? Unless you're seriously trying to contend that soup would deliberately troll new players with a useless red herring role in a ****ing noobie game, you have no case."

Want to explain this? What exactly is a red herring?

"Care to explain how we needed that info again? I seriously don't follow you."

I actually agree with this, I'm still not certain of why exactly you(Raz/Rake) felt it necessary to claim at that moment. I'd like an explanation.

"I also wasn't saying that your interactions make me think you're def scum. Your claim makes me think that. "

What were your reads on them before they had claimed?

I'm slightly annoyed at FF for random ass fluff to make his case seem bigger. It's basically one point: Raz/Rake's claim was really bad. Got it, thanks for pointing it out 10 times.

"Also, FF claim. Gimme."

Want as well.

"Hahahaha wow. I lay out a logical, reasonable, and fact based rebuttal to Rake's outlandish accusations against me, and Raz comes in and trys to bad mouth it with the big holier than thou ethical appeal. "Lol FF swore n stuff look how mad and angry he is, disregard what he's saying guiz". Can't say I'm suprised by that strategy choice Raz, very predicatable."

Calm the **** down.

"As for my claim, I'm VT obviously."

Awesome.

"So, what I'm going to do for you, as you must be the last remaining Town, is I'm going to walk you through my entire thought process."

Where exactly did you get this read from? YesterDay you were hell bent on lynching me.

WRT 656: Cool, thanks for getting that out.

"This leaves them room to push wherever goes best WITHOUT having to leave a read trail. It's hard to explain a 180 from Town to Scum. It's NOT hard to move from a Null in either direction."

Boils down to a backdoor?

"Trying to defend it would have more likely led towards his lynch, so I just ignored it."

Understandable.

WRT 659: This is very well thought out. Crumbing was done well and I enjoyed a post that wasn't angry.

"If and when you want me to continue, I'll talk about Pawn and Frozenflame specifically, but I think this section is most important to put out there first."

Do it.

WRT 663: Shut up and refute his points if you have such a problem with them. Stop ****ing complaining about how it isn't fair that he's pressing you. Do something about it.

This entire page was half good and half bad. FF's case was really crappy, again it basically boiled down to "Rake and Raz have a ****ty claim". TBH I really don't care about the claim at this point. Raz made some decent points and I'm looking forward to his extensions on his FF/Pwn case. Right now IMO the best lynch would be FF, but I'd rather not wagon him or anyone else until last day of deadline. Right now my instincts are telling me to allow this Day to drag on as long as possible until someone slips up and can't recover. Right now what I want to happen, (if the mod allows this without a mod-kill) I want the actual posts in the Neighbor QT. I want FF to get off his high chair and actually do something other than complain about pressure. I want Pwn to get some posts out considering that he is the one who claimed cop, and I would like to talk to him about it. Raz you keep on with the good posts. Number one priority, next post I want everyone to out their reads, sans myself, I want this especially of Raz and FF. Rake I want you to just hang for right now.

 

[Raziek]

Where exactly did you get this read from? YesterDay you were hell bent on lynching me.
/

I explain this in my post 612. It's process of elimination.

Because Pawn is claiming a guilty on Rake, whom I know is Town, Pawn must be scum.

Frozenflame's actions have made it clear that he's not Town, which makes you the last Town by PoE.

Also, something that just occurred to me is that from EVERYONE's perspective, either Pawn or Rake must be scum. We don't have to worry about Frozenflame at all.

Because Pawn voted Rake, and Rake has not been alpha'd to end the game, that eliminates the possibility of the following scumteams:

Wolf/Raz
Raz/FF
Wolf/FF.

Means the remaining scum combination is either Pawn/FF, Pawn/Wolf or Rake/Raz, which we already knew. But what that does make clear is that FF is NOT a lynch option today. Even though I think he's scum, the only scumteam he can exist on is Pawn/FF, which means the choice is between Pawn or Rake/Raz. (Lynching either one of us achieves the same functional result.)

This entire page was half good and half bad. FF's case was really crappy, again it basically boiled down to "Rake and Raz have a ****ty claim". TBH I really don't care about the claim at this point. Raz made some decent points and I'm looking forward to his extensions on his FF/Pwn case. Right now IMO the best lynch would be FF, but I'd rather not wagon him or anyone else until last day of deadline. Right now my instincts are telling me to allow this Day to drag on as long as possible until someone slips up and can't recover. Right now what I want to happen, (if the mod allows this without a mod-kill) I want the actual posts in the Neighbor QT. I want FF to get off his high chair and actually do something other than complain about pressure. I want Pwn to get some posts out considering that he is the one who claimed cop, and I would like to talk to him about it. Raz you keep on with the good posts. Number one priority, next post I want everyone to out their reads, sans myself, I want this especially of Raz and FF. Rake I want you to just hang for right now.

I cannot give you the direct logs of the QT, as it is against the rule in the OP preventing direct quotations of communication logs.

Just so I'm sure, do you understand why it provides no benefit to lynch FF instead of Pawn?

I'll continue with my posts shortly.

 

[Raziek]

Ugh, mangled by quotes. One sec, gotta fix.

 

[Raziek]

Where exactly did you get this read from? YesterDay you were hell bent on lynching me.

I explain this in my post 612. It's process of elimination.

Because Pawn is claiming a guilty on Rake, whom I know is Town, Pawn must be scum.

Frozenflame's actions have made it clear that he's not Town, which makes you the last Town by PoE.

Also, something that just occurred to me is that from EVERYONE's perspective, either Pawn or Rake must be scum. We don't have to worry about Frozenflame at all.

Because Pawn voted Rake, and Rake has not been alpha'd to end the game, that eliminates the possibility of the following scumteams:

Wolf/Raz
Raz/FF
Wolf/FF.

Means the remaining scum combination is either Pawn/FF, Pawn/Wolf or Rake/Raz, which we already knew. But what that does make clear is that FF is NOT a lynch option today. Even though I think he's scum, the only scumteam he can exist on is Pawn/FF, which means the choice is between Pawn or Rake/Raz. (Lynching either one of us achieves the same functional result.)

This entire page was half good and half bad. FF's case was really crappy, again it basically boiled down to "Rake and Raz have a ****ty claim". TBH I really don't care about the claim at this point. Raz made some decent points and I'm looking forward to his extensions on his FF/Pwn case. Right now IMO the best lynch would be FF, but I'd rather not wagon him or anyone else until last day of deadline. Right now my instincts are telling me to allow this Day to drag on as long as possible until someone slips up and can't recover. Right now what I want to happen, (if the mod allows this without a mod-kill) I want the actual posts in the Neighbor QT. I want FF to get off his high chair and actually do something other than complain about pressure. I want Pwn to get some posts out considering that he is the one who claimed cop, and I would like to talk to him about it. Raz you keep on with the good posts. Number one priority, next post I want everyone to out their reads, sans myself, I want this especially of Raz and FF. Rake I want you to just hang for right now.

I cannot give you the direct logs of the QT, as it is against the rule in the OP preventing direct quotations of communication logs.

Just so I'm sure, do you understand why it provides no benefit to lynch FF instead of Pawn?

I'll continue with my posts shortly.[/quote][/quote]

 

[Raziek]

Ok, I had **** in my notes about how the claims have flavor that more or less fits actual characters in Devil Survivor, but any conclusions I could try to draw about that would be really ****ing reachy. The only thing that lead me to note it is that Pawndidater's character is Honda, who is not at all someone I would expect as a cop. If anyone, it would be Izuna. (military field commander) Honda's just a businessman.

That aside, though I'll move on to the other posts I noted.

This may not organize entirely too great, but we'll see. Off to go quote things.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Just so I'm sure, do you understand why it provides no benefit to lynch FF instead of Pawn?

Yeah I just really don't like the Pwn wagon without him saying something.... FF is bad only because he's started flailing.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

All these feels..... TBH I'm really not sure where I want to go at this point.

Raz, does your case have any links between Pwn and FF?

 

[Raziek]

Yes. I just finished quoting all of the posts between the two of them that I feel are noteworthy. Doesn't include today's posts., as I plan to tackle those separately. Explanation and quotes incoming shortly.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Awesome.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Someone else is in thread, I want posts.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

You could ask me things, but as I recall, you wanted me to "hang out".

I'm totally burnt out from working out to boot, but what can you do.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Give me your reads.

 

[Raziek]

Alright, so, these are the other posts to do with Pawn and FF that I felt were worth looking at. I didn't find much of worth looking through Xiroey's posts early on, and those would just be WIFOM'd away anyway. Alright, starting off with Pawn's 409 on D1.

And in that time you didn't figure out Applejack was a girl? No pronouns?

Anyway, I don't really like this case against Xiroey. It feels weak to me. It might be a case, but I think we need to look at his replacement to make any decisions. To me it just feels like newb mistakes and misinterpretations. Maybe he was going to have free time that afternoon, but something came up and he just said "**** it, I'm not doing this anymore." It also seems to me like he mistook RVS for day 1 in general. It's not really a substantial case, but we could still keep an eye on his replacement.

This was right around the time when Ran was pushing the Xiroey case. Lynch was floating around between Rake, Xiroey and Turaz. Anyway. The important thing here is that Pawn defends Xiroey on a few flawed reasons:

1) He plays the noob card liberally. (Noted in Yellow)
2) He makes excuses for him. (Noted in Orange)
3) He passes the buck to the replacement. (Noted in red)

None of what he actually said addressed anything from the case. He did what I did for Rake, essentially, waving pressure away from the lynch without committing to things. Difference is, why would TownPawn be making excuses for Xiroey, whose alignment he doesn't know?

The defense stands out quite a bit, because he doesn't really do this sort of thing for anyone else.

waaaaaaaaaaat hammer already? I even read up to page 10 last night in anticipation of getting called in to replace lol

Well, I'll give you guys my thoughts thus far incase the scum get scurred and try to merc me before I can hardbody em

- I have a realllllllly hard time seeing a Kant/Rake team. If one is scum the other def isnt

- Gaga and Kant jumped out to me by about page 6ish as a possible scum team. Mostly a gut read based on their interactions

- Gaga in general seems to be trying wayyyyyy to hard to speak in terms that divorce him from his alignment. It's hard to explain but he seems to be obsessed with detachment from being "town" or "scum". Can't tell if thats a result of his newness to the game and not really feeling comfortable in his proverbial shoes yet, or if hes worried about scumslipping

- pawns earnest honestly (if that even makes sense) seems incredibly genuine, and that scares me. He's either truly an obvtown noob or playing a REALLY good act for a beginning at using that honest noob card

I'll try to go over the thread again and substantiate some of these observations. Just trying to get the cliffnotes out there for you guys for now

Moving on to FF's 456. This post comes right after my reads post in 455, where I note some suspicion of you and GaGa.

Important is that he sets up GaGa and Kantrip as a scumteam, he takes a good deal of wishy-washy stance on GaGa, while not actually substantiating his Kantrip read. Though he says he'll substantiate later, I don't believe he actually does. I'll see if it comes up in the quotes, I quoted most everything relevant he said.

Even MORE important here is what I highlighted in yellow. He blatantly defends Pawn in practically exactly the same manner than Pawn defended Xiroey. He again pulls the noob card and doesn't really substantiate otherwise.

Hmm interdasting that Ran went first.

Feel like toDay should be FF/ Gaga focused.

Expatiate.

Next up with have these two posts, which are 509 and 511 respectively. Once Day 2 starts, Rake comes out saying he believes FF and GaGa should be a focus for the day. Pawn immediately reacts to that by demanding an explanation, which is out of the ordinary to react that quickly and sharply to that. It's consistent with his defense of Xiroey earlier.

I see.
It's a bit early to say for Rake, but he seems to be a little impatient. He just jumped in saying "Hm Ran's dead let's push GaGa." Again, a bit early to say. More on this later.


We can keep an eye on them, but this feels like a better case to me:


I'm thinking we should push Raz/Rake.

Pawn then goes on to leave options open (none of which are Frozenflame). He pushes suspicion onto Rake again (working from D1's wagon) and suggests pushing either myself or Rake.

I'm def on board with a gaga push. As I said D1, I got scummy vibes on my initial read through from him.

As for Ran's death, I'm more sympathetic to the idea that he was killed for seeming townie. On my initial read through he didn't exactly scream obvtown, but I had a town leaning read on him and I wouldn't be suprised if that sentiment was well shared.

Ran did a lot of talking early on in the game but I really have a hard time seeing a kill on him being motivated by any specific accusations he made. tbqh I didn't see any particularly strong lines of argument coming from him

But yeah, looking at Gaga and Kant today would make me a happy camper

Frozenflame resumes his push of the previously mentioned GaGa/Kantrip scumteam, which he brought up on D1. Knowing now that they're both Town, I find it scummy that he claims our play was obvious and our claim is BS, given that such a direct defense of Rake on my part should have drawn his attention, but he makes no mention of it whatsoever.

He also goes out of his way to dissuade anything Ran said, which includes the previous attacks by Ran on Xiroey, who as we know, FF replaced.

Obvious Townies are less likely to be lynched. Makes them more likely to be nightkilled, as Mafia cannot remove them by other means.


Out of curiosity.... are both of us scum? If so, are we scum together? If we're not both scum, which one of us is Town and why?

Frozenflame: You have a penchant for being killed Night 1. This game, you weren't. Does this tell you anything about who might be scum? Is it possible the scumteam consists of players who are not aware of your reputation?

Sorry it took me so long, my internet's been out.


Ran was accusing you of being a pair, and now he's dead. Him being a good player and obvtown made him a danger to scum, and if he'd lived and continued this push and one of you was lynched and flipped scum, it wouldn't've taken much for the other to get lynched. I'm going with you both being scum. It explains the most based off the current evidence.


Why is this relevant?

This was my post towards FF and Pawn together. I talked about the Pawn section earlier, and how he's pushing for the scumteam of the two of us.

Note the yellow. You can't see the quote, but if you go to the post itself, he's responding to my question directed at (you guessed it), Frozenflame, once again having the quick reaction towards any suspicion of the slot. (See, Xiroey case D1 and Rake wanting FF at start of D2.)

Pawn gets SUPER jumpy every time people look at that slot.

Don't like FF's #515. I like Raz's question to FF that he answers in that post.

Raz town, Rake scum, FF leaning scum.

@FF: Full reads please?

Kantrip starts to catch onto the scent that I did in his 519. I can't really blame him for scumreading Rake here, but he starts to see what I was getting at with the question.

So here's where I stand:

1. GaGa - Scum lean
4. Raziek - Null
5. pwndidater2 - Null
6. Badwolf - Null
8. Potassium (IC) - Scum lean
9. Rake (IC) - Town lean

I've already explained how my initial read of the game when I replaced in made me think we have a Gaga/Kant scum team.

I have a very hard time seeing Rake paired up with Kant. I also don't see him being paired with Raz this game, but I'm slightly less confident on that read. Rake really doesn't seem to be catering to anyone, very much a solo force. That's why I have him as a town lean. So yeah, long story short, if Kant or Raz are scum, I'm pretty confident Rake isn't, and if I'm wrong on Rake and he is scum, I'm also pretty sure that Raz and Kant are town.

I have BW and Pwn as null mostly because they don't exactly have the most compelling content. My read on pwn, as mention earlier, mostly stems from the way he presents himself (i.e. the overly genuine noob card read) and BW I just can't seem to get a grip on in terms of what direction he actually wants to see this game move. Gonna need some more voting action from those two to work them out.

I would really like to push Gaga but his V/LA kinda defeats the purpose of that.

I'm gonna take another look over D1 and see if I can put together a case for my Kant/Gaga team read that can bring some substance to my gut read there.

Vote: Potassium

Okay! Big post here. Frozenflame makes his move to push for Kantrip/GaGa. Pawn moves back to null, but is no longer a focus of discussion as most people are townreading Pawn at this point.

Now note his reads. Everyone is Null except his scumreads (GaGa/Kant) and Rake (Town). That leaves a LOT of backdoors.

Looking at his discussion of pairings, he also says he doesn't see Raz/Rake (yet is pushing us now), and says that Rake and I are OPPOSITE ALIGNMENTS in either situation he sees.

We end up wheeling around to GaGa as a result of Rake's first vote, then B/W and Pawn jumping on there as well.

Well I'm all for this Gaga push, but we should def try to get a claim before hammering.

Does gaga seriously have like zero internet access? Is there any chance that he's actually gonna get in here and respond to us in any way?

With deadline in 24 hours this is pretty important since I don't wanna just blind hammer but I don't wanna just let this go to NL either =/

I quoted THIS post because it reads SUPER forced to me. While what he says is true, he's super wishy-washy about it and fence-sits the lynch. It reads very fake to me.

Ninja'd.

Okay cool. Looking at FF on a townflip primarily then

This was right after Rake and I claimed. Unfortunately, Kantrip doesn't elaborate, so I can't justify his thought process, but he went where I went. (And then died)
What motivation do I have to shoot Kantrip after a post like this? If I'm scum I know GaGa will flip Town, and I could have easily rode that momentum.
Going to move on to the posts of toDay now.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Also, to everyone, if I asked you a question in my wall. Answer it in your next post along with your reads.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Pawn and FF scum.

I've already cleared you Wulf.

Albeit using terribly terribly logic, which I feel no shame for.