Newbie 24 - SMT: Devil Survivor LAW IS VICTORIOUS #1 CHAOS LOSES AHAHAHAH

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Dismissive and not really addressing the problem. How is it shortsighted?

I like this post. Everyone's first idea is to take out experienced people. Even other experienced people.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

As scum, I would have kept Ran alive specifically because I was able to convince him via our conversations to drop me. Long term knowing i had satiated his push on me, I could be comfortable keeping him alive because I'd be able keep him at bay via my own reads , and his own, and if he ever came back I'd be confident I could counter push him again.

Short sighted meant that, long term it would have been better to keep Ran alive because of the stuff I talked about above , if you look at it from a scum Rake POV.

The only immediate benefit to me as scum , would be to come in and go : I told you so, Ran was town in yo faces. Rake da best believe everything he says. So let me as you, do you think me coming in and saying: I'm not surprised Ran died because he was obvious town.

Is my way of saying I told you so ?

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

As scum, I would have kept Ran alive specifically because I was able to convince him via our conversations to drop me. Long term knowing i had satiated his push on me, I could be comfortable keeping him alive because I'd be able keep him at bay via my own reads , and his own, and if he ever came back I'd be confident I could counter push him again.

Short sighted meant that, long term it would have been better to keep Ran alive because of the stuff I talked about above , if you look at it from a scum Rake POV.

The only immediate benefit to me as scum , would be to come in and go : I told you so, Ran was town in yo faces. Rake da best believe everything he says. So let me as you, do you think me coming in and saying: I'm not surprised Ran died because he was obvious town.

Is my way of saying I told you so ?

One of the things that bothers me with mafia games right now. Everyone is saying Obv town gets NK'd, this isn't always true. I don't like to think that way because of the possibility that he was scum. If he wasn't NK'd you would still have thought of him as town and he would have been playing you until Endgame. Try opening your mind to what scum is thinking, especially with the overwhelming possibility that it is a full team of newbies.

I'm not dropping Rake as a scum suspect and I'm sure as hell not dropping Raz but I want someone other than me or Pwn say something before I go full case on them. Please open your minds to all the ideas and present them. There are no stupid questions.... Usually.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Intrigued.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

GaGa has announced V/LA.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Coincidence ?

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

He's having IRL and Family Issues.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Sounds like crap

Good luck, young Mafia player

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

With Gaga V/LA my vote won't do much.

Unvote.

Hrmmm. I need to read Xiroey again.

Kantrip: Xiroey scum y/n , why ?

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Hmm.

Badwulf, what do you make Gaga's 54 in response to Ran's 53 ?

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

I don't find it jumpy necessarily but it's kinda odd yeah.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

It reminds me of noobScum BSP in meganewbie mafia, aslo run by soup.

I had been bsi'ng and joking around pre game and put Loli(scum) down as scum after like two posts , and BSP (her scum mate) , came in and went: WHY ? IS THIS EVEN SERIOUS ?

Kinda like a chainsaw, only not a effective one, a noobish chainsaw so to say

 

[Kantrip]

Rake you promised a bigger post on why GaGa is scum.

Instead, you called off the pressure because he's VL/A and tried to get other people to do the work for you. Give me point form why GaGa is scum or you're faking that scumread.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

K.

Let me grab my notes.

BiM being over will let me focus on this more. Which could be good or bad we'll see.

 

[pawndidater2]

Hmm.

Badwulf, what do you make Gaga's 54 in response to Ran's 53 ?

I feel like I'm missing something.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

He was asking my thoughts on Gaga's post number 54 that had responded to Ran's 53.

Now that I look back on it I'm thinking some t v s on that. I really need to reread.

/not tonight

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Sorry.

Got lost with irl stuff.

Making beautiful post currently, take it on faith i finish

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Heads up before anything too drastic happens. As of right now I'm not going to be able to be around for about 3-5 days. This can change within the course of a breath but right now all my instincts are telling me it's true. So, yeah.

 

[pawndidater2]

But...
#53

May I ask why?

#54

I'll tell you later.

How high are you guys?

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

It makes sense. Just go with it right now.

 

[pawndidater2]

It really doesn't make sense. I bet you two are speaking in code.

#OMGUS #highlyconfused

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

read the post before it, Ran votes for You as I recall, and it elicits that response.

Sorry for my notable absence of my "big post" just had to handle some other stuff first. Post is currently being written and I've prmoised myself to put it in front of my to do list.

 

[Raziek]

Ran was accusing you of being a pair, and now he's dead. Him being a good player and obvtown made him a danger to scum, and if he'd lived and continued this push and one of you was lynched and flipped scum, it wouldn't've taken much for the other to get lynched. I'm going with you both being scum. It explains the most based off the current evidence.

You're casting a solution to fit the problem.

Question for you:

If I was scum with Rake, would it do me much good to come in balls deep and defend him against the push that was made on him? If he were to flip scum later, that'd look really bad on me, right? It'd have been much easier for me simply to push in a different direction, rather than draw a lot of attention to myself while actively defending him.

Does our play make sense as a scumteam to you?
Why is this relevant?[/quote]

Don't like FF's #515. I like Raz's question to FF that he answers in that post.

Raz town, Rake scum, FF leaning scum.

@FF: Full reads please?

Can you tell me more about your Frozenflame scum read? Which posts in particular cause you to lean towards scum?

 

[Raziek]

EBWOP:

Why is this relevant?

Forgot this section. It's relevant because Frozenflame is a very strong player, but this is a newbie game, so not everyone is aware of his reputation. He's often shot Night 1 JUST because he's Frozenflame. The fact that he hasn't been shot N1 can be attributed to a number of factors, but none of them provide me with anything concrete right now. I was moreso probing for a reaction.

 

[Raziek]

As scum, I would have kept Ran alive specifically because I was able to convince him via our conversations to drop me. Long term knowing i had satiated his push on me, I could be comfortable keeping him alive because I'd be able keep him at bay via my own reads , and his own, and if he ever came back I'd be confident I could counter push him again.

I like this explanation in particular.

It'd have been easier for scumRake to kill someone like Kantrip, rather than a direct shot at Ran. Honestly, I find it more likely that it was a setup shot because Ran was obvTown and pushing Rake and I.

But really, it's WIFOM either way, so I don't think it's reasonable to draw a conclusion regarding the shot.

 

[Raziek]

GaGa's V/LA is ill-timed, unfortunately. I wanted more out of that slot.

I'd like to see Badwolf go toDay. Working on a case at the moment.

 

[Raziek]

Changed my mind. I'd much rather have GaGa even if the slot isn't here.

Likely Pawn. I don't have much concrete evidence...but he seems to 'bandwagon' as opposed to coming up with his own reads.
Likewise, when pressured his answers didn't really satisfy me. He's 'OKAY' but just barely.


VOTE: RAKE

This vote on the Rake wagon was gross, and I really disliked whichever post I remember saying I hated.

UUUUUGH. I don't have enough to substantiate either read I have right now.

Badwolf is "Yes-man"-ing all the worst pushes and riding along not doing much, but there's nothing that sticks out badly enough to work with other than the OMGUS on Turaz. That on its own isn't enough.

GaGa's actions have been detached, I haven't seen much pro-Town motivation, little initiative, but the slot hasn't really been here.

*table-flip*

I'm going to a Smash tournament, I'll come back to this later with a clearer head. I'd prefer we moved either Badwolf or Gaga, obviously.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Breaking my Gaga post up because it's turning out to be massive, Raz, I want you thoughts on it specifically.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Part 1:

Vote: Pwndidater

May I ask why?

I'll tell you later.

This i believe was a slip by Gaga, as RVS had already been explained by me. In the context of the thread, he shouldn't have been surprised by what could have been at the time A Pure RVS vote.

I believe Gaga got scared by the idea of someone voting for his partner, and felt the need to try and gain footing on Ran by asking why.

The telling part is that Gaga Never follows up on that intent, he let's Ran get away with saying : I'll tell you later. This means Gaga wasn't invested in hearing the answer,

This is exasporated by the fact that, when he next coems to the thread, he feesl teh need to over justify his Pawn vote, instead of following his original intent to find out why people were voting for Pawn.

This means , from my POV, Gaga was never interested in seeing why people were voting for Pawn, and any interest he had, was purely for : what can i use against Pawn.

Let's take a look at Gaga's response to Ranmaru's questions:

I think that Pwnd is being very vague and nonchalant,
I was waiting on him to post more before I made my move.

The whole reason I voted Pwnd is because "IF I WERE MAFIA"
I wouldn't want to be the first post, nor the last.



Pwnd confirmed his role several minutes after the second person confirmed his,
and since I have no information other than a gut feeling he's mafia, I gave him my vote.
I was the first to post because I had no reason to fear being lynched, I am not mafia.
Likewise, why would mafia draw attention to himself by targeting someone else early?
it was too obvious IMO.

If you read the post over, you will realize Gaga never actualy commit's to his vote on Pawn,
what he in fact does is over justify himself, in a sense , he went into a lot of detail for no otehr reason than to make sure
he could not be called out later for being vague.

Read the third paragraph specifically :


"Pwnd confirmed his role several minutes after the second person confirmed his,
and since I have no information other than a gut feeling he's mafia, I gave him my vote.
I was the first to post because I had no reason to fear being lynched, I am not mafia. "

This is a very long and drawn out post, and by that, I mean it feels calculated, and being that way, I think it was faked.

Gaga could have simply said: Pawn's attitude gave me a gut scum feeling, so I voted him.

Instead he feels the need to walk everyone through it, and I believe this is because he is using calculation as a scum tactic, essentially speeling out his every move as if to justify himself for everything.
Essentially, playing safe in order to avoid the spotlight.

Ran follows up in his post #93: http://smashboards.com/threads/newb...r-2nd-day-4-16-13.335256/page-3#post-15415980

And once again , we see the trend of Gaga "watching his steps" as he responds to Ran:

The reason I said "this will force content" is because I wasn't sure if newbies would automatically assume I was mafia because I had no 'real' reasoning.
I decided to be....cautious. But not cautions enough to state my full intentions for giving him my vote right away.
Likewise my post, though short, had two objectives. One was to pressure(though not too hard as to influence others heavily, because I have no real proof that he's mafia and didn't want to waste a lynch if others bandwagoned and he was in fact town).
And the second was as I stated. Content. Content was much more important than pressure at that point. At least to me, lol.
I knew stating my objective would not interfere with either goal, so I had no reason to cover it up.


There was no rush for me to question your intentions, and I assumed since you were an experienced player you were helping me pressure or had a similar mindset as I. Since there was not much content yet, your reasoning couldn't have been too convoluted IMO so I resolved to wait until you explained yourself or I had a stronger reason to question your motive.

I am interested in mafia because the premise of the game gets me off. I love psychology, and logical analysis.
I have never played mafia, but based on the rules I came to my own conclusions/assumptions about how to play and how other plays might play.

Another reason I have been reluctant to go into full detail, was to prevent myself from being a target.
In explaining myself, I hope I haven't targeted myself for a night killing 0___o.
I'm hoping that someone might have a skill that saves me or something...
Although ultimately my goal is to WIN, and as long as my death leads to a mafia member getting caught, so be it.


:D

To address the first chunk of this post, let's start with the begining of it :

"The reason I said "this will force content" is because I wasn't sure if newbies would automatically assume I was mafia because I had no 'real' reasoning."

Gaga had no reason to fear this, RVS as I have said, was already explained in full, by me. Why would he be worried about appearing scummy for doing the same thing everyne esle would be in RVS ?

Furthur, the intent of the first line is already self-survivalistic: He didn't want people to have any reason to think he is mafia, townies do not need to think this way, at any point.

Being town means that you have no need to fear people questioning you, or jumping to a silly conclusion, because you are town, you know you can explain your actions, and make yourself an ssete to town.

The fact Gaga was more concerned with how he appeared in thread over anything else, is because as scum he needs to be extremely cautious about how he's seen in the thread.

Next is the fact that Gaga imediately down plays his own scum read, this is a tactic called "back dooring" essentially, he backs off a read slightly, so that he doesn't have to commit to an opinion and be caught out if he suddenly switches that opinion for no reason.

Let's look now to how Gaga moves away from his push onto Pawn:

" One was to pressure(though not too hard as to influence others heavily, because I have no real proof that he's mafia and didn't want to waste a lynch if others bandwagoned and he was in fact town)."

Why does he need to worry about influencing other's ? In fact, as town, he should be looking to convince others to his opinion, and discuss and evolve it to get the best read possible,

however, Gaga doesnt' want to be seen committing or playing that way, again, taking the safe approach when he doesn't need to.

Look at the second part of that sentance : "because I have no real proof that he's mafia and didn't want to waste a lynch if others bandwagoned and he was in fact town"

I see this as his back door he's saying : I voted for Pawn, buuuut there is no proof he's mafia so don't take my vote too seriously. The fact he's not willing to even fully commit to it being a pressure vote, further enables my belief he was using "safe play" to avoid being noticed in thread.

Now we see that Ran calls him on not following up :

The second, I realized you asked me why I voted for Pwndiator, but you never followed up with it. Why didn't you? Why were you wondering about the reason for my vote?

and this is Gaga's response:

"There was no rush for me to question your intentions, and I assumed since you were an experienced player you were helping me pressure or had a similar mindset as I. Since there was not much content yet, your reasoning couldn't have been too convoluted IMO so I resolved to wait until you explained yourself or I had a stronger reason to question your motive. "

in the first portion, he undercuts his own follow up on Ran : "There was no rush for me to question your intentions ", but in fact, by following up with Ran, he had implied a sense of : i want this answer, and quickly " Or else Gaga would have waited I feel, or put his question more like:

Ran, when you get to it, could you explain why on Pawn. Coming back to Gaga, I feel like this paragraph was Gaga trying to step back from his own post.

" I assumed since you were an experienced player you were helping me pressure or had a similar mindset as I"

If Gaga really assumed this, then why did he ask ? This proves that Gaga had no intent to really ask Ran, and it was in fact, a reactionary post to Ran voting Pawn.

" Since there was not much content yet, your reasoning couldn't have been too convoluted IMO so I resolved to wait until you explained yourself or I had a stronger reason to question your motive "

I believe this too means Gaga was playing safe, he didn't want to risk chasing Ran too hard on it, but why wouldn't he ? The answer is simple: Gag's post was a reaction, and he wasn't intending to do so, he didn't follow up, because he couldn't risk to.

The tird paragraph is filler.

The only telling portion of the last paragraph , lies in this section:

" Another reason I have been reluctant to go into full detail, was to prevent myself from being a target.
In explaining myself, I hope I haven't targeted myself for a night killing 0___o.
I'm hoping that someone might have a skill that saves me or something "

As town, you know that , scum knows you are town, they don't have to care as to what role you are, you still represent a threat to them winning, Gaga didn't need to prevent himself from being a targte.
What he did need to do, was prevent himself from becoming a target in thread.

The last two lines read to me s over exaggerated, one explained post does not a NK target make.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Part 2 :

(collapsed for spacing reasons)

Spoiler

Part 2

Next let's take a look at his response to this post by badwuf : http://smashboards.com/threads/newb...r-2nd-day-4-16-13.335256/page-3#post-15416162

" Its suspicious to me, its TOO uncaring. Why isn't he trying to find Mafia?
Why isn't he defending himself when pressure is put on?


I feel as if mafia would only be THAT 'nonchalant' because he knows a big reaction would be suspicious.
I feel as though his actions are somewhat more of a mafia thinking like a townie, rather than an actual townie.


Placement is a factor, but not a big one. "

Notice how, Pawn being the topic, Gaga takes the opportunity to get back on his own read. I believe this was Gaga being oppurtunistic, hoping to have Badwulf on his side as he re-pushed Pawn.

" Its suspicious to me, its TOO uncaring. Why isn't he trying to find Mafia?
Why isn't he defending himself when pressure is put on? "

For lack of a better description, his points on Pawn here are "tack on" essentially points that are null overall, but which Gaga are tacking onto the Pawn wagon, to be seen as a visible contributor to the lynch should it happen.

The second part, i feel is alos misstimed, as I recall, the pressure on Pawn was wavering or at least not full fledged, I don't believe Gaga cared whether or not Pawn was responding or not, because it is a tack on point.

Pawn not defending, can be just as telling as him defending himself, instead, Gaga is tacking on this point to push the Pawn wagon, without having to be the most visible person to do so, esssentially, pushing Pawn , in the safest way he coudl .

Gaga's following post towards Turaz also read as off:

" You are also making me suspicious several reasons.

1: You only voted me once I put pressure on Pawn.
2: Even if you're on mobile, it has been quite some time since you've posted.
3: You've not really given any content or opinion, just a vote...an unexplained vote... "


Point one in my opinion is OMGUS: " You only voted me once I put pressure on Pawn" he's accusing Turaz of chainsawing for Pawn (where one scum partner scum reads someone scum reading his mate).

Point two is another tack on point, time between posts is null. I don't see how it would be more telling because it was Turaz doing so.
Point three is basically point 2, just er-wrapped in a new package, I also read it as Gaga under-cutting Turaz's position in thread by tacking on : "All you have done is one unexplained vote"

Pawn votes for Gaga here: http://smashboards.com/threads/newb...r-2nd-day-4-16-13.335256/page-3#post-15416372

And Gaga's response i think is very reactionary towards it : http://smashboards.com/threads/newb...r-2nd-day-4-16-13.335256/page-4#post-15416450

" I am a very calculating person, it's in my nature. Likewise I'm pretty passionate.
You can keep your vote on me if you'd like, but I've explained all of my actions in detail. "


Note the last part of this response : " but I've explained all of my actions in detail "

Why does he need to add this to his post ? When i read it, I see it as angry scum ,Gaga was frustrated because he had gone to great lengths to spell everything he did out, (careful play), and pawn still had (from Gaga's POV) , the audacity to vote him.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

@FF: Full reads please?

So here's where I stand:

1. GaGa - Scum lean
4. Raziek - Null
5. pwndidater2 - Null
6. Badwolf - Null
8. Potassium (IC) - Scum lean
9. Rake (IC) - Town lean

I've already explained how my initial read of the game when I replaced in made me think we have a Gaga/Kant scum team.

I have a very hard time seeing Rake paired up with Kant. I also don't see him being paired with Raz this game, but I'm slightly less confident on that read. Rake really doesn't seem to be catering to anyone, very much a solo force. That's why I have him as a town lean. So yeah, long story short, if Kant or Raz are scum, I'm pretty confident Rake isn't, and if I'm wrong on Rake and he is scum, I'm also pretty sure that Raz and Kant are town.

I have BW and Pwn as null mostly because they don't exactly have the most compelling content. My read on pwn, as mention earlier, mostly stems from the way he presents himself (i.e. the overly genuine noob card read) and BW I just can't seem to get a grip on in terms of what direction he actually wants to see this game move. Gonna need some more voting action from those two to work them out.

I would really like to push Gaga but his V/LA kinda defeats the purpose of that.

I'm gonna take another look over D1 and see if I can put together a case for my Kant/Gaga team read that can bring some substance to my gut read there.

Vote: Potassium

 

[pawndidater2]

Quotes aren't working for me for some reason.
Raz #543
I'm not sure about you being scum. It just occurred to me to mention that Ran had put you two as a pair. I need a read on you. Post moar conclusive material.

Raz #545
I hadn't thought about a setup. It doesn't completely destroy my theories but it definitely throws a wrench at them.

I'm liking Rake's megapost. I feel quite conflicted.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

You're casting a solution to fit the problem.

Why is that a problem? It seems what to do in this situation.

I'd like to see Badwolf go toDay. Working on a case at the moment.

You've yet to decently explain this read.

Badwolf is "Yes-man"-ing all the worst pushes and riding along not doing much, but there's nothing that sticks out badly enough to work with other than the OMGUS on Turaz. That on its own isn't enough.

Again you're getting this backwards. He voted me after I voted him. (at least I believe so, don't care enough to go back and check myself.)

BW I just can't seem to get a grip on in terms of what direction he actually wants to see this game move. Gonna need some more voting action from those two to work them out.

Sorry, this week has been.... Terribad. It's gotten better and I'm actually going to do something with this game instead of putting out prod-dodges. Also, why the K vote?

Right now, I'm good with keeping around FF, Rake, and Pwn. Those are probably my strongest town read ATM. Right now I'm also ok with seeing Raz or Gaga go. Raz based upon his terrible pushes towards myself and his sheeping of Rake out of ****ing nowhere. Gaga is good to go because I'd rather have someone than an NK plus I haven't had the best of reads lately (probs why I'm in this game), and I don't trust myself with reading people. I'd like to see where other people want to see this game go.

I will not validate a Rake, FF, or Pwn lynch.

 

[Kantrip]

Had a rough day, don't feel like reading all of the stuff that went on recently.

 

[pawndidater2]

I'm probably not going to be posting a lot over the next two weeks. I'll just be responding to people.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

Vote Gaga.

This needs to happen and now.

V/LA or not.

Especially if more people are going to be mia.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Vote Gaga

I agree with Rake, and I also won't be around much for the next two weeks either.

 

[pawndidater2]

Alright, I can live with a setup. Rake's clear... for now.

Which means I have no conflictions doing this.

Vote: GaGa

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I believe that is hammer. Votecount up in a minute.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Votecount 2.1:
GaGa [3] [L-1] Rake, Badwolf, Pawndidater
Frozenflame751 [0]
Raziek [0]
pawndidater2 [0]
Badwolf [0]
Potassium (IC) [1] Potassium
Rake (IC) [0]
Not Voting: Raziek, Potassium

Deadline in 24 hours.