Newbie 15 - Betty Crocker Mafia - Game Over!

[~ Gheb ~]

I mean, it does make life easier toDay but you have to aware that you're like the guaranteed night kill now...

Nevermind this part - I just realized that's wrong.

 

[asianaussie]

i don't know if you're being sarcastic or not

i consider a self-hammer very likely, so he's at L-2 in my eyes

 

[asianaussie]

k nvm it was probably not sarcasm, just me being tired

 

[asianaussie]

the above two posts directed @post 480

>_> i need sleep

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Wasn't sarcastic.

 

[Terywj [태리]]

Omoshiroii-desu.

That said, Thanksgiving shenanigans. Eating food, being busy. There's not much else I have to say that I haven't already said. I explained why I believe Marathonman is scum and why my vote isn't on him, and that isn't going to change unless someone decides to take their vote off for some reason or another. I'll look into the specific details such as the IC relationship and the Gheb / Asianaussie relationship...when I'm free.

 

[Sokr]

@AA

How was i wrong about you? I said you were a hesitant town read.

@Sold

If you're lying imma be so mad.

@Gheb

But you said Marathonman wasn't the scummiest player. And where do you plan on putting your vote?

 

[DtJ S2n]

Stu, I don't see why you'd need to claim

My power role is entirely useless at this point. There's a possibility I would have been night killed tonight anyways. If I died then my opinion is obviously that I can't trust you to lead the town, and I'm not sure who would pick it up. Even if it wasn't me, there's some townie that's dying tonight. I feel this move let's us make better use of everyone's time. I was planning to claim even before I realized you were
suspicious of me .

@Sold

If you're lying imma be so mad.

I may as well be confirmed telling the truth. Nobody is coming out to say "No, I'm the tracker!" and as an IC I wouldn't lie about my night actions.

Everyone should have 2 picks for Marathon's partner. After toDay, we have 2 lynches to hit scum. It'll be a cool game this game.

 

[Sokr]

Im inclined to believe Sold. My two picks assuming he's telling the truth are AA and Gheb. Gheb not so much.

Sold, I expect you to be dead tonight.
(I'm expecting you to understand what I'm trying to say here)

 

[asianaussie]

Gheb is almost definitely town, 95% certain.

@AA

How was i wrong about you? I said you were a hesitant town read.

I was referring to Serin's post on me and you being scumbuddies. Read it again.

@Sold

If you're lying imma be so mad.

The only situation in which he could be lying is if Marathon is the tracker, because only Marathon's counterclaim would be no obstacle. And there's no way he could've known that.

Right now my 2 picks are Tery and Sokr through process of elimination, and Tery looks worse (because elimination aside, I read Sokr as null-towny).

 

[MARaTHonman]

Okay, time to get the truth out there. I am the real Town Tracker, FUN da-Middles. I targeted asianaussie the first night phase and did not see anything. I didn't want to have to claim without getting a scum result, but Sold fakeclaiming changed that.

 

[Terywj [태리]]

Omoshiroii-desu.

You're either claiming to try and get past the current suspicion, which still doesn't explain your lack of effort in doing anything for the past two Day phases, or you're Mafia. Sold, on the other hand, has also been playing lackluster and could have been trying to get by on a claim in order to avoid the biggest threat to him--another IC slot in Gheb.

Omoshiorii indeed.

 

[MARaTHonman]

What are you talking about Tery? I have pushed on AA and Sold, who are my two top scum suspects right now.

 

[asianaussie]

Any crumbs? Even if there were, the riskiness of scumSold specifically claiming like that leads me to believe that he's not lying - what would have happened if Serin or Sokr or I were the Tracker?

Interesting attempt to associate yourself with me.

 

[MARaTHonman]

How do you think am I trying to associate myself with you?

 

[MARaTHonman]

Vote Sold2

 

[Sokr]

@Marathonman

Bull****. You're coming across as far to calm in this. But hey! If you are town you can still be useful to us!

Let's lynch Marathonman and if his claim flips true, then we lynch Sold. Unless Sold has anything to say about this?

 

[asianaussie]

How do you think am I trying to associate myself with you?

Okay, time to get the truth out there. I am the real Town Tracker, FUN da-Middles. I targeted asianaussie the first night phase and did not see anything. I didn't want to have to claim without getting a scum result, but Sold fakeclaiming changed that.

just the namedrop is enough when people decide to tunnelvision the two of us on re-read (im a reasonably easy lynch target atm, like 4 people are saying im your partner)

also, you not voting me when i am clearly a more viable lynch than sold (gheb and sokr could be convinced to join you) is pretend reluctance to vote your scumbuddy

 

[asianaussie]

Might be looking too deep into marathon's actions, but I'm convinced that Sold is either Town Tracker telling the truth (very, very likely), or he's scum who found a ridiculously obvious crumb on Marathon (which he hasn't pointed out) and/or decided to go for a risky gambit. Upon further consideration, this gambit would yield little if any fruit: Sold would be instalynched the next day and the final kill and lynch would be a toss-up (LYLO I suppose, but still).

None of this is very IC-ish (weak point), and it's not like scum was in a desperate position anyway, with John gone and Marathon (assuming he's town tracker) a likely lynch at that point in time anyway with Sokr's push.

tl;dr, Sold is almost definitely Tracker based on logic.

 

[DtJ S2n]

This is all I have actually accrediting myself to being the Tracker.

Sold hasn't really stood out and taken his case to any public attention, as far as I know. My read on him is the doctor (or the watcher, whichever).

You shouldn't try to read people's roles. Again it's just a problem with giving scum easy night kills. If I didn't have you down as a town read, I'd be so mad and so voting right now.

I really was mad at Serin at this point. He got close.

@Mod, does the Watcher "visit" someone at night?
Only way to find out. It really should be a visiting role, since it's making the choice to target someone.

Is it possible he's asking this so as to make it harder for the tracker to determine who's scum? If so, then I can only see a scum saying this. It would only complicate things for town.

Actually, I was asking this so I would know how to interpret my results. I specifically avoided responding to this, as to not draw attention to my role for something so trivial.

My very first post was one detailing how the Watcher and Tracker would act in this game. The only reason I thought of this is because I was the Tracker and immediately thought about their use in this set-up.

Oh, and naturally it's REALLY obvious how hard I set this claim up and my intent to do it from the beginning of the day. The reason why I was asking everyone's opinion on Marathon so intently is so that we could look back at everyone's thought's and handling of a confirmed scum. If I had claimed immediately, we'd have missed a lot of real opinions.

Not that I think anyone believes Marathon as the Tracker, it's just common courtesy to back something up when you're counterclaimed. As scum it's exactly what he should be doing at this point, to not make it 100% confirmed that I'm town (and by extension that he's scum).

Realer content from here down.

Since it's pretty much officially late game, it's not too bad of an idea to talk about town reads now. Scum reads still take precedence, but Process of Elimination is an amazing tool at this point in the game. After toDay, we get 2 lynches to hit the remaining scum. Our odds are pretty good. If you eliminate a couple people from that, awesome! I'm very likely to be the night kill toNight, so there's no worrying about "letting scum know who to kill" or anything like that.

Unfortunately, there's not a single player in this group I can say is town with confidence. For example, for a majority of this game I've felt Serin is town. But he's one of the few who's actually avoided the Marathon wagon, so that's worrying.

AA is a weird case. He's been drawing attention to Marathon since D1 and has been in support of his lynch this entire day. Since Marathon is scum, it'd be really unlikely for him to wanna do this... but at the same time he's said some really suspect things and apparently Gheb has a crush on him or something (I'll let him talk about that :embarrassed. AA's also the kind of player I would expect to not mind taking a risk, if the outcome meant he would feel like a troll. So I could definitely see it as a distancing/bussing thing too.

Sokr's relation with the fallen Ori is very odd. Ori's final opinion was that Sokr is scum, though I would take that with a grain of salt. Sokr's relationship with Ori this game has been really odd though. His D1 play in general is scummy, is what I'm getting at. On the other hand, Sokr started this day with a case and vote on Marathon. Again it could be a bussing attempt. I don't really know how experienced Sokr is. A lot of inexperienced scum tend to come out of a D1-town lynch thinking they're in a great position and that they'll both make it to the next day before having to worry, so it's kind of a longshot for him to know he should get up and bus Marathon really quickly like that.

This game is really a lot smaller than it feels sometimes. Those are my thoughts on all the players I didn't put down as my "partner for marathon."

Tomorrow when I'm not tired again and hopefully less sick, I'll do what's called an ISO on probably Terywj. I kinda don't feel like ISOing Gheb even though it would probably bring a lot more useful information than Tery. Also I guess tomorrow will be most of yours first introduction to serious reading. I wrote a good page here and this is just scratching the surface on the information we have. I write a lot sometimes. I wanna write a lot tomorrow.

 

[MARaTHonman]

just the namedrop is enough when people decide to tunnelvision the two of us on re-read (im a reasonably easy lynch target atm, like 4 people are saying im your partner)

also, you not voting me when i am clearly a more viable lynch than sold (gheb and sokr could be convinced to join you) is pretend reluctance to vote your scumbuddy

Why would I not vote for the scum who is pretending to be my role?

Might be looking too deep into marathon's actions, but I'm convinced that Sold is either Town Tracker telling the truth (very, very likely), or he's scum who found a ridiculously obvious crumb on Marathon (which he hasn't pointed out) and/or decided to go for a risky gambit. Upon further consideration, this gambit would yield little if any fruit: Sold would be instalynched the next day and the final kill and lynch would be a toss-up (LYLO I suppose, but still).

None of this is very IC-ish (weak point), and it's not like scum was in a desperate position anyway, with John gone and Marathon (assuming he's town tracker) a likely lynch at that point in time anyway with Sokr's push.

tl;dr, Sold is almost definitely Tracker based on logic.

It is a risky gambit by Sold, but it would be worth it for scum to do it. If Sold can manage to mislynch me, that kills three townies, one a power role, for one scum. I get mislynched, and a townie gets killed at night. Serin gets lynched the next day for flipping scum, and another townie gets killed that night. That puts one scum against two town with no town PRs to use. I think that is a great situation for scum to be in, and well worth the risk.

One thing that hasn't made sense for me for townSold is why he would claim at this time. It seemed like I was a strong lynch candidate for today, so why wouldn't he just push my lynch instead of outing himself when there is support for my lynch? The thing is, my lynch is not guaranteed at the moment. I think he sensed that town could be persuaded to vote someone else today, and tried this gambit to get my lynch through.

And look at his play so far. Up until this claim business, Sold has not done much scum-hunting. He hadn't pushed people, and did not freely give his opinions on people. He even ransomed his reads for Gheb's opinions. It is very anti-town to be so restrictive with reads in that way.

 

[Terywj [태리]]

Irrelevant question. Er, irrelevant in the sense that it doesn't attribute to the game, but just Mafia as a whole.

Why do people use crumbs, how can they be effective / provide validity to claims, etc. etc.

 

[DtJ S2n]

So here's an ISO on Terywj. ISO stands for Isolation-read. It's really simple: you just read that player and that player's alone posts. Anyways going on.


These are all Tery's relations to Marathonman

Spoiler

Marathonman, is Asianaussie's FoS of me distancing or bussing?

Very first post of "content." It's worth noting that he chose Marathonman, but Marathonman was just the person who was active at that time, so it doesn't really mean anything. This kind of post only becomes important if you see Tery continually throwing easy questions to Marathonman.

Vote Tery
Well I have finished three games, though just one on this site. I haven't played enough to know what I prefer yet.

I guess it's worth noting that Marathonman RVS voted Tery.

Grabbing dinner. I wanna see more from John and Marathonman.

Another drop of Marathonman, this time bringing attention to him. Marathonman hadn't posted since basically RVS at this point.

John, as Sold mentioned, post amount has nothing to do with contribution in both Mafia and forums, what I was referring to was aside from your vote on Asianaussie, you have not communicated much with Asianaussie in any sort of dialogue or conversation. If you vote someone in RVS and then don't do anything about it, what's the point of it? This also applies to Marathonman, who has voted me and has done little to nothing about it.

Here he is noting Marathonman's RVS vote on himself and how he hasn't done anything with it.

Sokr, let's hear your thoughts. The Ori_bro lynch, the flip, John's death, everything. Same goes for you, Marathonman.

Another call for Marathon's activity.

What do you think of John's RVS vote but then not following through with anything?

Fair enough. How do you like Serin?

Here he is questioning Marathonman. Both of these are easy questions, so it could be interpreted as him giving Marathon and easy way to look like he's contributing. Not quite enough to make that connection, imo.

Marathonman has essentially been playing on the sidelines since the game started. Dropping a RVS vote on me (which is fine) and then failing to push or really do anything about it. Furthermore, a vast majority of his posts have been lacking in content or a desire / intent to actively scumhunt. I think the most "filled" posts were the ones where he misunderstood Asianaussie's, which I find in and of itself suspicious (properly defensive vs. overly defensive), especially coming from a slot which has been quiet all game.

That said, I will not be placing a vote on Marathonman until I see some more discussion take place.

Yeah. He's right about why Marathon is scummy and everything. The not placing a vote is odd but I guess I see his reasoning.

Nothing outstanding in here. He has mentioned Marathonman and attempted to bring attention to him and I think he made it out that Marathon was one of his stronger suspicions on D1 but he never really strongly pushed him. His interaction with Marathonman is minimal despite Marathon voting him for the entire day phase, but this may be attributed to Marathon's activity. Not much of a connection here.

Stances and stuff.

Spoiler

Vote: Terywj

Obvscum is obv.

Unvote

Vote: Serin

Whatchu gonna do today, Serin?

Admits to himself being scum and then realizes his slip. JUST KIDDING . His first vote is for Serin, based on Newbie 14 or something. Nothing special, standard RVS stuff.

Alrighty.

So John, you're still voting Asianaussie and have done minimal (if any) communication. Why is that?

Starts a bit of much needed suspicion on John.

Grabbing dinner. I wanna see more from John and Marathonman.

Repeat on John, now added Marathonman.

John, as Sold mentioned, post amount has nothing to do with contribution in both Mafia and forums, what I was referring to was aside from your vote on Asianaussie, you have not communicated much with Asianaussie in any sort of dialogue or conversation. If you vote someone in RVS and then don't do anything about it, what's the point of it? This also applies to Marathonman, who has voted me and has done little to nothing about it.

Clarification on his suspicions on John and Marathon.

I can agree with this as a whole.

A blanket agreement to me saying that Serin was okay for the time being but needed to be watched, and that AA was scummy for advice doggin and stuff. I kind of dislike how simply he agrees with the entirety of it, but I dunno.

I would label my main concern as Ori_bro, but I'm not going to put at L1. That's just asking for problems. I'm gonna look into Asianaussie, as I feel some of the content is "questionable". Other than that, mostly nulls all around. This is a Newbie game, after al.

Main suspicion is Ori at this point and supports the previous quote by saying he does think AA is questionable. His suspicion on Ori is kind of weird. #150, #165, #183. These 3 posts are the only posts he had before about Ori while his wagon was building up. In these posts he doesn't seem to take one stance or another on Ori. This could be interpreted as scum trying to keep options open for as long as possible (for example, if the wagon ended up bad he would have never really been on it), or it could be scum testing the waters on the wagon. I'm actually going to count this as a scummy move, he kinda just wiggled into the Ori wagon and made himself comfortable.

I'm liking Serin more, looks like he picked up some good tips from the last Newbie.

I'll be looking back at Ori_bro some more, but I don't think I'd be willing to hammer at right now, since I didn't want to put him at L-1 before the weekend. Now my vote will remain nowhere for this reason, hope this satisfies you, Tsukishimangetsu.

I really don't understand Tery's continued hesitance to vote, but it kind of explains why he was like this on the Marathon wagon too I guess? Marks Serin as I guess "towner" here. Assuming that before this he agreed with me that Serin was "alright."

I agree that Serin would be needed to be looked at, but not for your reasons. I think it's just a little to rash of sorts. Compare Serin's "I'm confident Ori_bro is scum or being mediocre." with a post one day ago saying he didn't quite register Ori_bro as scum. I'm interested in what changed. What do you think?

Quickflip McNasty. I don't know where this came from. He's right but I don't know exactly when he thought of this. Maybe he did a lookback or something. Since it's a legitimate thing that he spotted here, I won't fault him hard for it. It's kind of ironic though, isn't it?

I implore you to reconsider those words. The first quote was made 11/11 @ 2AM. The second quote was made 11/12 @ 3PM. We were well past RVS a whole two days ago.

Continues his Serin pressure here. At least he didn't let it drop.

My suspicions of having either of the IC slots as scum have been raised. I'll do some reading later. Expect stuff on the IC players and Sokr. Personally, I feel Sokr is just frustrated townie at this stage.

No follow up on any of this. Possibly interrupted by the Marathon wagon, but the direction Tery wanted to take this day phase is clear.

You're either claiming to try and get past the current suspicion, which still doesn't explain your lack of effort in doing anything for the past two Day phases, or you're Mafia. Sold, on the other hand, has also been playing lackluster and could have been trying to get by on a claim in order to avoid the biggest threat to him--another IC slot in Gheb.

Omoshiorii indeed.

I mean what he says is true and the only thing you can really assume, but let's be real everyone knows I'm really the tracker. I actually don't really know what he's trying to say for the first half of this post. In all seriousness I'm not sure if he actually believes Marathon can be the tracker.

So that was my ISO. I can do a little conclusion here.

Townie

• Active, shared quite a few opinions
• Brought up some good information, like Serin's flip
• Did draw attention to Marathon.

Scummy

• His handling of the Ori wagon, just kinda snuck aboard it. Note: this may just be his natural hesitance
• Lending credibility to Marathon's counter-claim.
• Handed Marathon a couple of easy questions.
• This is really weak, but posted quite a lot of fluff just chatting with AA and stuff of that nature
• What a weird flip on Serin

I think I got it all there. So that's how an ISO read works, neat isn't it? In the end, I'm still left unsure. Tery is still an option for Marathon's partner, but he's not necessarily my top pick either... A lot of times I wouldn't share a case like this, since it led me no where lmao. But it kind of shows the process. And also it'll be good for discussion. Tery's response to this stuff can potentially show how town he really is, giving us a somewhat trustworthy person in late game, or out himself as scum.

I'm not expecting a response to all of this, just the important stuff. If someone has a second opinion on any of this, that's also really helpful.

 

[Sokr]

@Sold
To explain my scummy play in D1, I was more focused on my other game, Britches and Hose. I decided to change that overnight.

@Marathonman
I'm sorry but you aren't making a very good defensive case. Your Lynch was not obvious, it was mainly gheb and I voting you I think. Then sold backed it up.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Gonna post something tomorrow, had to work on a presentation all day.

 

[o-Serin-o]

Can we get a tally of votes?

 

[Sokr]

Here is my updated read list:

Tery
Serin
Asianaussie: leaning scum but I'll wait and see what kind of content he produces.
Marathonman
Gheb
Sold2

Gheb has shown himself to be town in my eyes in this Marathonman shthingy we just did/are in.
Sold I was unsure of but I am inclined to believe his tracker claim as no one other than Marathonman counter-claimed.

 

[DtJ S2n]

Sokr, you know 1 other person than Marathonman has to be scum in that? Having 4 town reads in this game is super difficult and I don't know what you see in everyone.

 

[DtJ S2n]

Or I guess I should say is that you should take second and third looks at everyone you've marked as town.

 

[Sokr]

Maybe I should have said, Tery, Serin, and Gheb are hesitant.

 

[asianaussie]

what changed me to leaning scum (from hesitant town, i think)

is it just that you think everyone else is town?

^that's a reasonable way to think about it at this point, actually

 

[Sokr]

Ya, pretty much. Your the closest town to scum I have.

 

[asianaussie]

alright then, what reasoning brings you to tery, gheb and serin town?

i hold the last two as town myself, gheb more than serin, but i want to hear your specific reasons, since that's directly related to your 'scumpicks' right now

 

[Sokr]

I'm not sure. Its what I had in my notes. I'm going to do a mass reread toNight to refresh my reads. I have Marathon as my main scum pick so I'm gonna enforce that toDay.

 

[MARaTHonman]

@Sold
To explain my scummy play in D1, I was more focused on my other game, Britches and Hose. I decided to change that overnight.

@Marathonman
I'm sorry but you aren't making a very good defensive case. Your Lynch was not obvious, it was mainly gheb and I voting you I think. Then sold backed it up.

Well, that's exactly my point. I think scumSold felt like I wasn't gonna be a clear lynch so he claimed to push it through.

 

[Sokr]

Well, that's exactly my point. I think scumSold felt like I wasn't gonna be a clear lynch so he claimed to push it through.

Touché however I can also see a townSold doing that. I can't see a townYou acting like you did in the counter claim.

 

[MARaTHonman]

And how is that? I put out evidence that I'm real and Sold is fake.

 

[MARaTHonman]

And townSold I don't see doing that. I guess it's just the mindset I think the PR would have. Tbh, I think my wagon could go either way. And townSold would have the mindset of pushing my lynch through by making a strong case and convincing others. Did he even try to make a case against me? No, he hopped right to trading information with Gheb, which was weird in itself, and claimed right away. He would want to wait as long as possible to claim, and use the confirmed information he supposedly has. If he could get scum lynched without having to out himself, he doesn't have to be a guaranteed nightkill and can help town further. But scumSold sees the same situation and thinks that fakeclaiming will lynch me fast and be a good opportunity to take out some townies like I already explained.

 

[Sokr]

I have more thoughts as to why townSold would do that but I don't want to share invade it benefits scum. As for your evidence, are you referring to your 501? Cause that isn't evidence.

 

[MARaTHonman]

Well, how was I acting in my counterclaim in a way you did not like?