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Newbie 13: Organization XIII Mafia ~Town Wins!~

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@Acrostic and general Garg kill discussion: Actually, Garg was a terrible kill, imo. He had enough suspicion on him to make him a potential topic for D2, which would have drawn some heat away from scum.

Seikend would have been my choice, to be honest. Phoenix had been a non-presence, and Seikend himself had not been around long enough to make an impact that would have given town info after a death. Which begs the question... Why wasn't Seikend killed?
 

Gova

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1.) Acrostic ()
2.) SangfroidWarrior ()
4.) Seikend ()
6.) Budget Player Cadet_ ()
7.) Werekill ()
8.) Zen ()
9.) th3kuzinator (1) Werekill
Not voting - Acrostic, SW, Seikend, BPC, Zen, Kuz

With 7 playing, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline is August 3rd at 11:59 PM EST (GMT-5).
 

#HBC | Acrostic

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@Acrostic and general Garg kill discussion: Actually, Garg was a terrible kill, imo. He had enough suspicion on him to make him a potential topic for D2, which would have drawn some heat away from scum.
Seriously? I wasn't suspicious of him. I was more wary of Seikend|BPC to be quite honest. Especially since I didn't think that they were a scum team and having a scum flip on one would kind of clear the other.

Werekill said:
Seikend would have been my choice, to be honest. Phoenix had been a non-presence, and Seikend himself had not been around long enough to make an impact that would have given town info after a death. Which begs the question... Why wasn't Seikend killed?
Ooh that's a good point. I think a Seikend kill would have also produced similar results. Except there was a BPC push on Seikend. So perhaps killing Seikend would incriminate BPC if he flipped town. Or perhaps Seikend is scum and therefore can't kill himself. :33
 

#HBC | Acrostic

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Werekill do you think a Seikend|th3kuzinator scum team is possible? Or is your fos more just on th3kuzinator and Seikend as individual scum tells at the moment.
 

#HBC | Acrostic

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Actually considering your foses: SangfroidWarrior and th3kuzinator do you feel that they are both scum or does one flipping scum clear the other? And also if th3kuzinator flips scum, then who would you suspect as his partner. And who would you suspect is mafia if th3kuzinator flips town. Where does Seikend fit into your foses?
 

Seikend

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Seikend I would prefer if you put up a V/LA like SangfroidWarrior did in #988 so I can prepare questions to ask when you are going to be available to play. Also I'm getting inclinations that your slot is playing inactive on purpose given the lack of activity from you and pheonix. This is not as definitive though as a previous game where the replacement chose to keep the same mannerisms and the same foses. However I'm still a bit wary.
wut.

I agree, phoenix was inactive. But whatttt? I'm away for one day (and a slow day nonetheless) and I'm suddenly inactive? What is thisssssssss.

@Acrostic Don't like the NK speculation. Talk to me about the Panta lynch. What do you think of the wagon?

@All players other than Kuz: what do you think of Kuz's behavior in the recent exchange between me and him? Would you be ok with a Kuz lynch?
Eh. I think Kuz was focusing on all the wrong points and got to the point where he was arguing for the sake of arguing, rather than scumhunting. Kinda iffy, but not really enough to sway my town read yet.

@Sang and Acrostic: What're your thoughts on Seikend?

@Seikend: Thoughts on BPC.
Null leaning scum. Thought the vote on my slot in D1 was hella oppportunistic.

@BPC I'd still like the answer to this question please

Unvote, Vote: Phoenix

Werekill seems to be somewhat innocent, we have no reads, and lynching Phoenix will provide us with some information, plus he's ****ing useless at this point. The deadline is tomorrow and we have nothing to go on.
@BPC: What is this information you'd get on my flip? Where would you look on my town and scum flip?



Gonna ignore the "because I'm not dead I must be scum" bs. Scum might have thought Gargalione was a PR, maybe I'm set up as a mislynch etc. etc
 

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Werekill do you think a Seikend|th3kuzinator scum team is possible? Or is your fos more just on th3kuzinator and Seikend as individual scum tells at the moment.
It's possible but not too likely, imo. I'm thinking of them as individuals until I see other wise, and besides, Seikend is only slightly suspicious to me.

Rereading the Pheonix wagon; just got an idea.

@Seikend: The "why aren't you dead" stuff is pure speculation, more or less.
 

th3kuzinator

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*cracks knuckles*

I have my first day off today in like forever that I'm not doing something tonight. My activity will be varied after today so I'll try to do as much as I can now.
 

#HBC | Acrostic

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wut. I agree, phoenix was inactive. But whatttt? I'm away for one day (and a slow day nonetheless) and I'm suddenly inactive? What is thisssssssss.
The reason why your wagon dissipated Day 1 was because of slot inactivity. Even though you've replaced the slot, it hasn't gotten terribly active and it is hard for me to determine your alignment based on the content you have presented. At the end of D1 you decided to go with a Panta lynch when initially you said the vote was a "stretch" in #789. I'm curious as to why you lynched Panta as the day ended without your providing reasons aside from you avoiding a forced NL situation.

@Acrostic Don't like the NK speculation. Talk to me about the Panta lynch. What do you think of the wagon?

Now that I look back, it was a bit silly of me to look into the Gargaglione kill. I think I was reading too much into it after discussion with Werekill. However I still think that BPC brought up good points and was trying to expand upon his line of thinking. Could you elaborate more wrt "the wagon?"

When I re-read I notice that Sangfroid noted that Panta was V/LA in #822. When Sangfroid comes back, I'm curious about her #818 in which she recognizes that th3kuzinator is not in the game. #822 Sangfroid digs a bit deeper into Panta mentioning it as a possibility, but then seems to dismiss it in #823 after noting his large list post in #405. th3kuzinator stop by to place his vote in #829 indicating that he is going for the night. #832 Sangfroid asks me who I would be okay with lynching. I tell her that I will consider Panta and #838 Sangfroid says that she will now consider Panta. Then again there was a 40 minute lapse, so perhaps she really was reconsidering Panta during that time frame. I find it interesting that once th3kuzinator leaves, Sangfroid becomes more open to the idea of a Panta lynch. But when th3kuzinator is present, Sangfroid is vocal against a Panta lynch. I am interested in hearing comments from th3kuzinator|Sangfroid regarding Day 1.

Also Zεη and th3kuzinator weren't there to directly oppose the lynch. Zεη is just not present in the game in general. I feel that it would have been better if they were present as they are hard for me to read at the moment and I don't know what to think of them for now.

Seikend what are your thoughts on BPC's #996?
 

#HBC | Acrostic

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Currently, I'm leaning very strongly towards Werekill and Acrostic as town. No other strong reads, although I am almost innately iffy about Kuz's entire playstyle; acting as a voice of authority makes me suspicious. I can't back that with anything though, so I'm going to throw it out as "baseless paranoia".
I would appreciate if you could elaborate on why you think Werekill and me are town. Also do you have any distinctive foses for today based on everything that has happened so far?

It seems like you have a fos on th3kuzinator but it is a gut read or IC paranoia.
 

th3kuzinator

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Still reading.

We should be finalizing our lynch way before the deadline so we don't have a repeat of yesterDay. That way we also have ample time to switch if necessary.
 

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Really, we HAD the date finalized before the replacement.

Which begs the question why the mods replaced him in the first place... A lynch would have gotten rid of the inactive problem, yet the mods saw it as apparently extremely important to get someone in that spot. Why? He's not a pr, as his claim showed, so maybe the mods didn't want scum to die for such a terrible reason?

Pure speculation with nothing else behind it, but still.
 

th3kuzinator

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I already had that same thought, actually.

I just can't get over scumPhoenix completely forgetting about the game, not formatting his votes correctly, and calling this a werewolf game if he had gotten a mafia role.
 

th3kuzinator

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BTW cops in werewolf games are called seers and doctors are called angels. If Pheonix had gotten a PR he would have remember to call this game mafia, because its not werewolf terminology. Same thing if he had gotten a scum role. VT is pretty much the only thing that is universal to both games, so his claim checks out in that regard. That plus Seikend's reaction to his lynch at the end of yesterDay gives me really good vibes about his slot.

I'm almost dead sure he's town.
 

th3kuzinator

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FYI -

Two scum and two power roles lie within

Sang
Zen
BPC
Acrostic

Still reading and collecting my thoughts about where I want to go toDay, though.

^ If I ever end up dead take the above list as fact
 

th3kuzinator

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@Werekill and Seik: If you had to pick two people out of the above list as scum picks who would they be any why?
 

th3kuzinator

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@Seikend: In your 789 you say that you you found the wagon on you to be gross (which I agree it was) and that you'd be examining the people who switched to your wagon for dumb reasoning. You make it pretty clear that you disapprove of what Werekill did, but then say you like BPC's play on the matter.

Side Note: What's your current read on Werekill?

Back on track, BPC's reasoning was much much worse than Werekill's was. His 514 and 530 clearly show that he does not support the Phoenix wagon nor does he understand the reasoning/things that could be gained from doing so. Yet his very next post, 50 posts later, is this in which he flip flops completely. This is probably the most glaring inconsistency that I've seen all game, considering that he had Werekill as scum a few posts ago and said he was adverse to the Phoenix lynch. He uses the deadline as an excuse to justify the lynch he just previously said gave him nothing to work with. I wasn't very focused on the thread at that point in the game due to parties and such, but if I had been in the right state of mind when this first went down I would have seen it noticed it straight away. Acrostic does two posts later. I'm curious as to how you could have maintained your town read on him after that incident yet your read on Werekill flip-flopped. What is your current read on BPC?

@Acrostic: Say Seikend wasn't the lynch. Who would be your second pick and why?

Still think Sang is town despite the lie. Every post just feels like a smack in the face with a townie fish or something and I can't ignore those gut reads. Plus her thought process makes sense to me and doesn't look like something that was doctored.

Same thing with Acrostic. His posts look like genuine attempt to scumhunt instead of cheap imitations that I would expect from a scum player. Acrostic is a smart player so this isn't really enough to sell me, it's just that I like what he's doing. Particularly wrt the last minute wagon decision yesterDay. Lots of smart questions and it does seem like he's genuinely looking for scum with his vote movement. I Like 586/587 and 719.

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=13074129&postcount=720

This above post interests me quite a bit. Both Acrostic and Zen ask BPC why he switches wagons yet BPC ignores Acrostic's question and answers Zen's. With the time interval between his switch and Acrostic's followup + scumBPC would not ignore a question that his scummate targeted at him due to try to force a connection, BPC and Acrostic aren't on the same scumteam.

I'll quote the part of the post that really made an impression on me, though.

Side note: Zen seems to be getting kinda buddy-buddy with a few players and flip-flopping. I'll reread that again.
This is pretty much textbook scum distancing if I've ever seen it. BPC has not mentioned any discontent with Zen in the past yet throws out an offhand comment in the middle of his post. He does not follow up on this side note nor does he push Zen at all after this. People can say whatever they want about who they think is scum, but its who they actually push that matters.

I would look at Zen if BPC flips scum.

BPC said:
At this point, we need to choose a wagon and stick with it, no matter what wagon. I'm not going to play cute here; a D1 lynch is ****ing essential. It gives us a good idea of who's who, and ensures that the scum doesn't have complete control over the information... Let's say we lynch player X, and he flips town. This may incriminate or help several people. At the same time, said player X could just as easily flip scum. However, the mafia doesn't have such randomness; they know who to target and kill: whoever will help their cause the most. Without a day one lynch, we're flying blind.
Information instead of analysis. Just telling us the basics of mafia theory.

BPC said:
I'd appreciate a claim from SW and Phoenix. My vote stays on Phoenix because, again, he's useless. I advise the rest of you to choose a candidate and stick with them. We need a lynch of someone who is at least somewhat suspicious/connected, unless they're PR'd.
@Bolded: Says he think Sang's slip is just a newbie mistake earlier in the post and then wants her to claim while she's at like L-3. Rolefishing.

Rest of the quote is, again, information instead of analysis.

Basically just gross stuff all around.


http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=13076284&postcount=760

If you ask me this looks completely like faked ignorance. More IIoA. The guy hasn't said anything of value in like 10 posts and even before that I already discussed the grody wagon switch from Werekill to Phoenix.

Still reading some stuff.
 

th3kuzinator

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Yeah, I don't see how QT was relevant at all, and I honestly had no idea what it was.
o_O

What is this? Didn't you just finish a game in a place that doesn't exist? I'm sure the scum had a quicktopic in that game because I asked Tom about it earlier. How did no one explain it to you throughout that entire game? How did scum not post the QT in endgame?

This also looks so much like faked ignorance.
 

th3kuzinator

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Reading and re-reading the end of the Panta lynch I just can't see Acrostic or Sang as scum. Both could have easily boarded with little to no repercussion but they argued down their votes on him time and time again and kept asking for more reasoning/clarification. Scum wouldn't have had to be so obsessively cautious with the lynch (like waiting until 11:45 to vote) because the switch could have easily been explained away that the deadline was approaching fast. Putting myself in the shoes of both players during that instance I just can't see any scummy intent. The read is reliable especially because of the crunch time that was.

This leaves Zen and BPC as my prime suspects. Really like Sang, Acrostic and Seikend. Werekill I don't want to like because his play has been absolutely atrocious but I just have this weird feeling that he's town anyway.
 

th3kuzinator

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o_O

What is this? Didn't you just finish a game in a place that doesn't exist? I'm sure the scum had a quicktopic in that game because I asked Tom about it earlier. How did no one explain it to you throughout that entire game? How did scum not post the QT in endgame?

This also looks so much like faked ignorance.
O_o actually now I seem to remember Tom never includes QTs in his games. But I remember him telling me something about a qt......

Meh.
 

Seikend

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@Seikend: In your 789 you say that you you found the wagon on you to be gross (which I agree it was) and that you'd be examining the people who switched to your wagon for dumb reasoning. You make it pretty clear that you disapprove of what Werekill did, but then say you like BPC's play on the matter.
I don't say I like BPC's play concerning my wagon. I wrote that post as I was reading through the thread and I say I like his early play. Later in #789 I question him on what supposed information he would get out of his flip because afaik there was little information that would have come out of my flip. BPC's reasoning for joining the bandwagon was bleh. I've reasked that question in my #1008. Still waiting on an answer.


Side Note: What's your current read on Werekill?
Null leaning scum. Thought he was pretty scummy D1, but in D2 he's changing my mind. He came off a bit better in your early tussle with him imo. His arguments I could understand, and his emotion felt genuine. The constant "food for thought" posts bug me but nothing else stands out toDay.

Seikend what are your thoughts on BPC's #996?
Not much in the way of actual content but johns seem legit. Not a fair post to judge BPC on. I'd at least give him a couple of days to prioritise and post content when he's ready.

@Werekill and Seik: If you had to pick two people out of the above list as scum picks who would they be any why?
BPC. Already explained a fair bit.

Aaand then... it's close but probably Zen over Acrostic. Acrostic's push on me is bleh and opportunistic at times, but other than that I've found his content pretty good. Looks like he's genuinely trying to scumhunt.

@Kuz What are your thoughts on Acrostic's push on me?

Zen is just no content and just plain unreadable.
 

th3kuzinator

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Reading it now.

@Sang: Where is your head right now? Scum pick and general musings.

@Seik: Thoughts on mass claiming right now.
 

Seikend

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3 VTs, 2 Scum, 2 PRS.

Optimal play from Scum would be to claim one VT, one PR.

Then town has a pool of 4 where there's one scum, and a pool of 3 where there's one scum.

No PR confirms nor denies the existence of any PR besides itself.

The only possible advantage is scum claiming the same PR as someone else, in which case we have a one in two chance of hitting scum (but a one in two chance of hitting a PR). Other scum avoids any pressure from mass claim.

Once the PRs are out Night Actions are entirely useless.

I would not mass claim toDay. No real benefits over one more night of Night Actions.
 

Xivii

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Ok woah I need to get back into this game. First Panta is lynched out of no where and now Kooz is saying I'm scum...?

smh smh
 

th3kuzinator

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Fair analysis. But think about it this way. Scum have a roleblocker and a goon regardless of the setup.

Right now we have two claimed vts and, frankly, claims that I both believe. That technically leaves 2 prs 1 van and 2 maf within the 5 of us remaining. However, due to us not knowing the nature of the town prs, mass claiming now is a better idea.

Why?

Because having a scum claim a PR at L-1 doesn't immediately out a scum like pr claiming should. Say a scum claims a PR that isn't one of the PRs that the other two players have. He's pretty much safe until we mass claim because each power role does not want to out themselves needlessly and might assume that the claimant is the legit other PR. It's not until both PRs claim that we are able to distinguish whether the claimant is lying or not.

Now think about it if we mass claim. We're not giving scum more of a chance to plan this out and we immediately out a pool of 3 if scum decide to try and claim a PR. IMO scum won't claim a PR if we all mass claim at the same time, especially if they have to go first.

And think about Night actions. If we don't mass claim Scum can literally neutralize our PRs anyway. With a kill and a roleblock, they can remove or negate two questionables. Regardless of who we force into claiming toDay, even if its only one person, we'll have limited the pool down to two remaining players both which scum can negate.

With mass claiming we immediately figure out the pool we have to pick from while having time to assess the situation. Like if we don't, and scum is pushed into claiming, we won't be able to assess whether we even have any reason to doubt his claim to not knowing if there are two more PRs out there.

That and we'll get a cop result from last Night, hopefully.

I want people weighing in on this. I'm in support of it and it would be beneficial but it has to be done soon for it to be most effective.
 

Seikend

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Oh, didn't realise PRs would be practically useless toNight anyway, regardless of whether we massclaim or not.

Then yes, I'd be for a massclaim.
 

#HBC | Acrostic

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@Acrostic: Can you briefly explain your Seikend vote again?
I voted for Seikend in order to:

[1] Get him to stop copping out of discussion which I felt he was doing in #995 and #809.

[2] I found his comments to be inconsistent which I have pointed out in #1011 where at the end of D1 he said that Panta would be a stretch in #789 but then says that Panta is favourable in #827. Considering a stretch is equivalent to next favorable, look at his tone when he responds to me in #809. He seems incredibly wishy washy to someone he has put on his secondary scum list and discusses his vote as being open and flexible instead of being committed to Werekill who he put as his major scum pick for the day.

[3] I have stated this many times however my questions at the end of D1 to BPC led me to the possibility I stated in #997 that a Seikend|BPC scum team are not likely based on the responses I got from #723 and also a Seikend|Werekill scum team are not likely based on his voting behavior in #993. To be honest I found it suspicious that you continually kept on stalling yesterday to hammer on Seikend and then he was replaced when the votes were on him at L-1. I also find it suspicious that SangfroidWarrior had him as a scum pick along with Werekill, but chose to lynch Panta at the end of the day. Therefore I see a Seikend flip as town or scum beneficial to town.
 

th3kuzinator

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That's two.

@BPC: Where did your strong town read on Werekill originate from? Where did your Zen pressure evaporate to?
 

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o_O

What is this? Didn't you just finish a game in a place that doesn't exist? I'm sure the scum had a quicktopic in that game because I asked Tom about it earlier. How did no one explain it to you throughout that entire game? How did scum not post the QT in endgame?

This also looks so much like faked ignorance.
I swear, no one posted a QT in the thread. I always assumed that scum talked via pm.

I can't link it since it was a BRoom thread, but you can ask Tom.

Anyway, I don't like the idea of a mass claim. It just seems like a bad idea, especially when scum can easily just roleblock or kill soon afterwards; remember the fact that we don't know for sure if we have a doc or not? This could easily **** us up.
 

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@ Acrostic: Hey, I actually forgot that Kuz had stalled and stalled and stalled to hammer Pheonix...

Why did you wait so long to hammer when it was fairly obvious that he was the lynch? We had no idea yet that he was gonna be replaced.
 

th3kuzinator

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Well okay then.

Also, Werekill, the point of mass claiming isn't to save the PRs. It's to pretty much give us a clear lynch pool for toDay and give us the information that they recovered from last Night before its too late. A kill and a roleblock will pretty much make any PRs we have toNight useless and waiting until toMorrow means that one of them could be killed toNight before they were able to share any info they may have.

Read my post and think about it setup-wise. It's much more beneficial to do it toDay.
 

#HBC | Acrostic

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Sorry that took awhile to type, I had to go back and summarize everything I had from awhile back. I skimmed over the recent content. I don't think PRs outing are a good idea as I believe that the cop has an inno based on him not outing today. If we are going to request that the PRs out then I would prefer if we get a consensus on it first and unfortunately Sangfroid is V/LA until Monday. I do think there is merit in doing it, however I have mixed feelings as cop could be sacked if the other PR claim is a nurse|deputy. On the other hand, it would help us to prioritize the mislynch today as it gives us breathing room for subsequent days.
 

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... Perhaps, Kuz But you have to remember the fact that I still see you as scum, so I'm taking your suggestions with a grain or three of salt.

On another note, here are my top scumpicks, in order:

Kuz
SW
Seikend.
 

th3kuzinator

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@ Acrostic: Hey, I actually forgot that Kuz had stalled and stalled and stalled to hammer Pheonix...

Why did you wait so long to hammer when it was fairly obvious that he was the lynch? We had no idea yet that he was gonna be replaced.
Fairly obvious he was the lynch? We didn't even end up lynching him haha.

As for why I didn't hammer Pheonix right then and there, I was having some major doubts about his lynch. Same reasoning as I already explained toDay, he looked way too innocent.

I was actually having a huge party at my house that evening (parents were out of the state lol) and because they took the care, I had to bike to town to pick up some supplies. I don't live very close to my town so I was out of the house from like 4-6ish which is why I wasn't even there to hammer. By the time I had gotten back (expecting to hammer the still awol phoenix) Seikend had already replaced in and was posting stuff that I really liked. I quickly glanced at the votecount but then had to run downstairs as someone had already arrived so I couldn't place a vote then. When I came back even later that evening, completely drunk, the wagon was off of Seikend and onto Panta or you. I had a strong town read on Panta and didn't want him dead and I knew we'd get connections out of your flip so I chose your lynch.
 
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