Newbie 13: Organization XIII Mafia ~Town Wins!~

[#HBC | Acrostic]

BPC can you please answer the question I posed earlier today regarding whether you would prefer to lynch someone who is useless now or wait for a potentially more active replacement?

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

Actually Werekill you're right. I wasn't looking at the larger picture when I was making my assessment and was instead looking at Zen hoping on and off between Werekill|SangfroidWarrior and you flipping between pheonix561|SangfroidWarrior respectively.

 

[Budget Player Cadet_]

BPC can you please answer the question I posed earlier today regarding whether you would prefer to lynch someone who is useless now or wait for a potentially more active replacement?

Depends. Do we have the time? Can we get a replacement and another extension? Right now we have a deadline today. If we could get, say, a week-long extension, then I'd be all for waiting and analyzing more. But as is? We need to drop the hammer on someone within the next 24 (?) hours. And that's a bad position to be in when the game is so strewn.

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

Depends. Do we have the time? Can we get a replacement and another extension? Right now we have a deadline today. If we could get, say, a week-long extension, then I'd be all for waiting and analyzing more. But as is? We need to drop the hammer on someone within the next 24 (?) hours. And that's a bad position to be in when the game is so strewn.

In terms of mechanics, we have two mislynches viable today and two PRs. If a policy lynch were to occur, then it can happen on either D1 or D2 if there are no better choices. I personally am not adverse to using a policy lynch on the inactive D1, however there is the possibility that s|he could be a PR. Then again the question remains whether someone who would forget that they are even playing a mafia game would qualify as a PR. However I don't have a favorable impression at the moment of Pheonix after the "Hurr Durr" business. I am in fact, extremely tempted to lynch Pheonix today given my reconsideration on Werekill|Sangfroid with re-reads. However I feel like it won't produce significant tells given the lack of content from Pheonix.

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

I'm putting at pheonix561 at L-2 for now. :/

Vote: pheonix561

 

[Gova]

1.) Acrostic ()
2.) SangfroidWarrior (2) Werekill, Zen
3.) Panta ()
4.) pheonix561 (3) Gargaglione, BPC, Acrostic
5.) gargaglione ()
6.) Budget Player Cadet_ (1) Panta
7.) Werekill ()
8.) Zen ()
9.) th3kuzinator ()
Not voting - SangfroidWarrior, phoenix, Kuz

With 9 playing, it takes 5 to lynch!

Deadline is July 25th at 11:59 PM EST (GMT-5).

 

[Lore]

The SW train never really left the station, so Unvote, Vote: Pheonix

 

[th3kuzinator]

Spent the night with my girl but I'm here now and reading stuff.

However I will not be here tonight as well due to some parties and I should be leaving at like 4PM EST so I'll probably have to lay my vote down before then.

 

[SangfroidWarrior]

Alright. I mulled it over last night and, though I understand everybody's reasonings for wanting to vote Pheonix, I still don't feel right lynching an inactive if his entire lynch basically revolves around the fact that he's inactive. Sure, he has said some pretty... weird things, but he hasn't said enough and I want more from him. I'm putting my vote on werekill again because, although he cleared up some of the reasons I suspect him for, he still looks slightly scummy in my eyes.

Vote: Werekill

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

I'd appreciate a claim from SW and Phoenix. My vote stays on Phoenix because, again, he's useless. I advise the rest of you to choose a candidate and stick with them. We need a lynch of someone who is at least somewhat suspicious/connected, unless they're PR'd.

This is a horrible idea. Please do not do this or else I will cry blood. Mafia has a roleblocker role which can stop cop/doc from investigating/saving respectively. The main advantage town has over mafia this game is that mafia are unaware of which roles are in this game and who has which role.

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

EBWOP: Pheonix should out if he's a PR but after reading through his last post, I highly doubt it. If he forgot he was playing a mafia game as a PR, then it would honestly be a first. SW should not out under today. Especially since her lynch is not going to materialize. Only Pheonix should claim if he decides to log back in. No one else should claim.

 

[SangfroidWarrior]

Oh snap I didn't know that they had a roleblocker... Thank you for pointing that out to me. That just adds another reason to my curiosity as to why people would want others to claim. To me, if it's a PR, it just really hurts them in the long run.

 

[SangfroidWarrior]

And, yeah I know it stops town from killing a PR, but mafia would just go and either kill them during the night or stop their advances.

 

[th3kuzinator]

@Werekill: #668

I'm really at a crossroads here. Her posts in general seem so townie, but that whole event doesn't look genuine at all.

Read the entire thing like twice and I must say this is exactly the sentiment I'm feeling.

 

[th3kuzinator]

This is literally the most conflicted I've ever been about a mafia lynch.

 

[th3kuzinator]

I re-read. I don't understand why th3kuzinator was more willing to give a pass to SangfroidWarrior and is giving a stiff shoulder to Werekill early-game. Namely the discrepancy in treatment between Sangfroid's lynch on gargarlione and Werekill's argument that he was reaction testing. It seems his disposition changed at L-1. Also I don't see how scum benefits from claiming Vanilla Townie. I would expect a soft|hard PR claim from scum in order to save themselves. Either way I have to say that Werekill has been the most proactive and provocative player this game.

Unvote: Werekill

wtfamireading.jpg

What pass are you talking about?

This is a semi-open setup, so scum claiming a PR is a suicide mission. It outs the PR itself when its forced to CC but it basically condemns a mafia. Claiming VT is safe and thought it might not always save your lynch, it won't guarantee it.

And Werekill has been the most proactive player all game? You must be reading the wrong game.

 

[SangfroidWarrior]

This is literally the most conflicted I've ever been about a mafia lynch.

Yeah, sorry about putting you throught this, Kuzi.

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

What pass are you talking about?

In general it seemed like early game you were okay with almost all of Sang's explanation. Werekill's pointed out that Sang seems to be very good at retroactive reasoning to a certain extent. In other words, providing reasons AFTER she has done something suspicious. Then again most of this game is based on post-explanations. This in general is the gist of what I was getting at regarding a "pass":

@Sang: Trying to gauge you is like running around in circles haha. Despite this I like your play because you're thinking quite independently from the views I've been suggesting you adopt. You're contradicting yourself, but its the type of contradiction that feels pretty natural coming from a player of your skill level and your rambling explanations seem fairly genuine. Just try to calm down a bit.

This is a semi-open setup, so scum claiming a PR is a suicide mission. It outs the PR itself when its forced to CC but it basically condemns a mafia. Claiming VT is safe and thought it might not always save your lynch, it won't guarantee it.

Really? I'm used to cc'ing other people as scum and find that the easiest way to get out of a lynch is to claim a PR such as cop/doc in order to make people unvote. I believe that if mafia were to be put at L-1 on D-1, then it would be optimal for them to claim a PR and hope that no one has that role in the open-setup. Even in the case that another person has that role, roleblocker could shut them down for the rest of the game or nilla mafia could kill them.

Fmpov reviewing mechanics if nilla mafia were to be lynched, optimal play would be to claim cop and wait for a cop counter claim. If no cop counter claim then nilla gets off free. If cop counter claim, then nilla could be lynched, but roleblocker would shut down cop for the rest of the game. If mafia roleblocker is going to be lynched, optimal play would be to claim doc and wait for a counter claim. If counter claimed, roleblocker would be lynched, but nilla would immediately kill doc and cop would be in hiding.

And Werekill has been the most proactive player all game? You must be reading the wrong game.

Re-read Werekill. He pushed an early fos on SangfroidWarrior when everyone else was observing interactions early D1 and was put an L-1 for being aggressive fmpov. I don't know of many people who try to initiate reaction test early in the beginning of the game, however I found through my re-read yesterday/early today that I can understand a lot of his reads going into the game to the point that he's making me revise my own.

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

Regarding more discussion on mechanics, I can see mafia claiming vanilla townie in a solo-mafia setup where the majority of town is vanilla townie. However when you have a partner, I would be inclined to think that mafia would go for team play or at least maximizing their partner's chance of winning in case things don't work out as planned. If there is any problem with the logic I presented in #738 then I am open to discuss it.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Don't really like the recent posts by BPC either.

Here's my rationale right now.

I don't think Sang is scum and I think she literally just played hella hella dumb. Werekill I'm still on the fence about but, again, I'm beginning to side on not scum. All the things I said before on Werekill being town still stand and the only thing that keeps perturbing me is the constant sheeping he's doing to Zen wrt wagons. I like Zen's and Acrostic's (for the most part) play this exchange. They look genuinely interested in finding scum. This coupled with my town Sang and Werekill reads leaves Phoenix the last person that I would be okay with as a feasible lynch in 12 hours by PoE.

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

I usually don't say I'm using PoE when I decide to skip out on doing reads for 4 people. :3

 

[th3kuzinator]

Which reads are those?

I think Panta is town, Garg moved back down to null.

So you think that Werekill claiming Nilla is a town tell because scum would try and claim a PR?

 

[Xivii]

Unvote; Vote: Werekill

I don't feel comfortable lynching someone who isn't here to claim.

@mod: request something on Pheonix

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

Which reads are those?

BPC, Panta, Garg, and ... th3kuzinator. I cannot count.

I think Panta is town, Garg moved back down to null.

Okay. So do you have Pheonix as null, scum, or null-scum?

So you think that Werekill claiming Nilla is a town tell because scum would try and claim a PR?

Yes. I feel that Werekill could have pulled off a PR claim if he really wanted to avoid the lynch.

 

[th3kuzinator]

In general it seemed like early game you were okay with almost all of Sang's explanation. Werekill's pointed out that Sang seems to be very good at retroactive reasoning to a certain extent. In other words, providing reasons AFTER she has done something suspicious. Then again most of this game is based on post-explanations. This in general is the gist of what I was getting at regarding a "pass":

A lot of the Sang pressure from early game was based on pretty bad evidence. The most incriminating thing you could say about her early game play is that she contradicted herself quite a bit, to the point where it looked like she was flailing. When you look at the intent behind the posts though, it looks like a disheveled townie trying to figure **** out rather than scum being afraid to take a firm stance. That's the type of vibe I've been getting from her posts all game and something I don't have a problem with expressing. You yourself even had a town read on Sang until this recent development wrt knowing too much information. All of her posts ring pretty damn townie, its just the recent situation has cast some doubt in some people's eyes. I still think her overall play overpowers that, though.

If you call that giving her a pass then sure I was giving her a pass, but I don't see how that's a bad thing if I have a confident read on her.

Really? I'm used to cc'ing other people as scum and find that the easiest way to get out of a lynch is to claim a PR such as cop/doc in order to make people unvote. I believe that if mafia were to be put at L-1 on D-1, then it would be optimal for them to claim a PR and hope that no one has that role in the open-setup. Even in the case that another person has that role, roleblocker could shut them down for the rest of the game or nilla mafia could kill them.

Or they could do what Werekill did and claim Nilla and hope to get out of the lynch by playing this exact same card. It's all WIFOM.

Fmpov reviewing mechanics if nilla mafia were to be lynched, optimal play would be to claim cop and wait for a cop counter claim. If no cop counter claim then nilla gets off free. If cop counter claim, then nilla could be lynched, but roleblocker would shut down cop for the rest of the game. If mafia roleblocker is going to be lynched, optimal play would be to claim doc and wait for a counter claim. If counter claimed, roleblocker would be lynched, but nilla would immediately kill doc and cop would be in hiding.

You've certainly thought a lot about what scum should do when placed at L-1. Again its all WIFOM and it that alone doesn't clear Werekil at all.

Re-read Werekill. He pushed an early fos on SangfroidWarrior when everyone else was observing interactions early D1 and was put an L-1 for being aggressive fmpov. I don't know of many people who try to initiate reaction test early in the beginning of the game, however I found through my re-read yesterday/early today that I can understand a lot of his reads going into the game to the point that he's making me revise my own.

That wasn't what Werekill was doing at all. And a large portion of why I was so suspicious of him wasn't his aggression, it was the exact opposite in fact. He made a point about attacking SW with reasoning to start the day. I immediately express disinterest with the reasoning he provided. Phoenix comes in saying that he also wanted to vote SW for pressure reasoning to which Werekill immediately responded with "Oh yeah, that's what I was trying to do too." Didn't bother responding to my points against him not did he attempt to back up his position until much much later after we had chewed him out for it. He completely caved on the push and tried to get out of receiving any flack for his vote by dismissing it as simply pressure.

Sorry if I've come across as a bit disheveled these past two days. I'm multitasking on 4 different things right now.

 

[th3kuzinator]

BPC I dunno, I liked his earlier play but not his recent so much.

Phoenix is the definition of null.

 

[Xivii]

Sang if someone is about to be lynched they can claim one of two things: VT or a PR.

If they are a PR and claim PR, then there will be no counter claim and it stops us from completely wasting our day lynch. That is the point with claiming. Even if they will be Night Killed at least we aren't wasting our lynch.

If Scum claims a PR then there will be a Counter Claim. In that event we know 100% that one of the two are mafia. Since there are only two mafia, outing the PR for a mafia lynch is a fair trade.
If VT claims VT, we know that we are not lynching a PR and can proceed.

If scum claims VT, we know we aren't lynching a PR and can proceed.

---

With that in mind which is the best option for scum to claim?

It depends really. If they feel they have no chance in living, then it would be their best option to claim a PR so that the real PR would counter claim. That helps their partner out a bit. It could also possibly keep their self alive for another day if they play it off right.

If they have a chance of living in the day, they can simply claim VT (since claiming a PR would out them for sure if someone counter claimed).

A VT claim cannot clear nor condemn someone.

----

Another thing to add: Town should Never lie about their claim. If a VT claims a PR, they will out the real PR, and likely get them both killed.

If a PR claims VT, it makes their claim less believable later on and can really put town in a bad position.

 

[SangfroidWarrior]

Thanks. That clears it up a bit for me.

 

[Xivii]

Acrostic, As Kooz said that is all WIFOM. Claiming a PR is not necessarily the optimal play for scum especially in an open setup. (see above)

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

Initially I felt SangfroidWarrior was town for reasons stated in #597. However many of her statements were on the premise that she was telling the truth and I had to go re-read last night to re-evaluate my town read on her. I want to see how today's lynch plays out, however she is tipping town on the borderline.

I usually think a lot about mechanics, but I don't out it because it tends to deter from scumhunting and the psychological aspect of the game. I have thoughts about town play, but they won't materialize until the mafia roleblocker is lynched. I did put thought into L-1 scum play during my isolated reading of Werekill yesterday. I felt that he didn't read as scum going into the lynch and I don't see much persuasive purpose in claiming a vanilla townie role.

Regarding the last paragraph you wrote, I still find it strange that he would explain his vote as being baseless (because it was) and then explain it was a reaction test. I think that scum would insist and try to reason out their points on the matter, rather than saying that it was a "reaction test" of all things. I lost the pages on which Werekill and SangfroidWarrior had a long post exchange, however I didn't really feel that SangfroidWarrior's rebuttal materialized when reading her #338. I do think that Werekill could have questioned SangfroidWarrior more extensively in #345, however there wasn't much to argue about imo.

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

Acrostic, As Kooz said that is all WIFOM. Claiming a PR is not necessarily the optimal play for scum especially in an open setup. (see above)

My read on that tell is conditional based on how I felt scum would play at L-1. I'm not solely evaluating my Werekill read from the role claim alone. I agree that it is a decision that could go either way if you are looking at the decision in and of itself. However I took it as a town tell upon reading yesterday given Werekill's swift and firm claim and his attitude regarding his lynch.

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

#351:

Whaaaat? I'm surprised that I have to claim so early, and just because I kept pushing SW to prove herself and shut me up. Roxas, Vanilla Townie. Not much else to say, other than please don't lynch me. (still on my iPod, so I haven't had a chance to really reply to SW)

Actually, she did start fossing Panta after Kooz applied pressure to her in #352 to pick an alternative lynch or die. I'm going to re-read again.

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

SangfroidWarrior can you explain to me why you decided to go for Werekill over Pheonix?

 

[Lore]

Actually, she did start fossing Panta after Kooz applied pressure to her in #352 to pick an alternative lynch or die. I'm going to re-read again.

... Pick a pronoun and stick with it already, haha. You called me He in the post right before this.

Anyway, I have nothing to add to the current discussion. There's really nothing I can add, considering the fact that I'm the one who claimed.

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

Unvote, Vote: SangfroidWarrior

... Pick a pronoun and stick with it already, haha. You called me He in the post right before this. Anyway, I have nothing to add to the current discussion. There's really nothing I can add, considering the fact that I'm the one who claimed.

Sorry not sure what pronoun to use. Basically I think I had an early town read on you but Kooz and Zen are telling me that my read was off. And I'm beginning to think my read was off.

 

[Lore]

Unvote, Vote: SangfroidWarrior



Sorry not sure what pronoun to use. Basically I think I had an early town read on you but Kooz and Zen are telling me that my read was off. And I'm beginning to think my read was off.

Woot! If anyone else hops on the SW wagon, I'll join in the fun.

And haha, it's ok. Just use whichever you see me more as. ^_^

Anyway, why are you thinking your read was off? I think the L-1 claim stuff is a bit too WIFOM to be really solid, but I don't think it was the only thing you based your read on, so what changed?

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

When I did my read on you yesterday, most of it was isolated post reading without really taking note of who was addressing to you and other context. One of the things that is bothering me is after reading comments from Kooz, how your posts seem to come off as reactionary than initiative based. The main argument that goes against this is your initiative to reaction test which I pointed out in #738. Kooz however told me that this is an excuse in #745, however I don't think it was contrived and want to question Kooz further in #750. If you could address Kooz's points at the end of #745 it would be appreciated. I also want to hear from SangfriodWarrior about her decision to go with your lynch over Pheonix.

 

[SangfroidWarrior]

Unvote, Vote: SangfroidWarrior

Would you mind sticknig to a vote? I'm getting severely confused. You don't have to pressure me to answer your question, if that's what you're doing.

To answer your question, I believe I have stated that I don't feel like lynching an inactive and want him to either be replaced, much like SM was, or modkilled. It is partially because he was at L-1 and I didn't want to be the one to put the final nail in his coffin and end all discussion for the day, but I'm still sticking with my werekill scum idea. I'm not saying Pheonix is at all clear in my eyes, but I don't feel right lynching an inactive. As well as werekill has done in defending himself, that still doesn't clear him in my eyes either because he took so long to do so (like he was trying to think of a viable excuse) and because just the actions he took early on themselves weren't really town-like. His first 2 posts were "pressuring" me. They had very little in them that hadn't been said already. Plus, after we all started saying that we think he might be scum, only then did he start actively participation.

My thing is, if you do a re-read, don't read each person seperately and do it out of context, because things get confusing then. (this isn't an attack on anyone, it's just my general view from what a few people have been saying with their re-reads)

 

[SangfroidWarrior]

I'm not really sure what else you want me to say that I haven't already said, Acro.

 

[Budget Player Cadet_]

This is a horrible idea. Please do not do this or else I will cry blood. Mafia has a roleblocker role which can stop cop/doc from investigating/saving respectively. The main advantage town has over mafia this game is that mafia are unaware of which roles are in this game and who has which role.

How do we know this? ...Lemme guess, the mod said so? FML I need to learn to read.

@SW: We're all fairly confused. Just FYI. There's a lot of wagon hopping going on, with everyone trying to get on the right wagon before the deadline. On my old forum, this is normally where we ask for an extension... Do you guys do that here on SWF as well? Also, more content coming later. Sorry, but I've been super busy recently between two bands and the end of the school year. >.>