I'd say Mario vs Ness is 7-3, in Mario favor.
Mario vs Lucas i'd have to say 6-4. 6 in Mario favor. A good lucas will own you alot harder then ness for obvious reasons because of his moveset. But his recovery is his downfall. Same with Ness. Granted Lucas does have a Tether. If you're jump doesnt get you back on, and you're only means left is Up B, you're gimped. Wether it be because of the cape, fireball, fludd, Fair, capestall, whatever whatever. Same goes for Ness.
A good Mario at gimping is a counter nitemare for a Ness & Lucas. Only reason why I'd say it's deeply in Mario's favor whatever ratio we do decide on. Once you off the edge you in Mario's territory, use you're jump to try to get back you'l be caped, Bair'd, and everything else to get knocked back off. Use UpB and you're 8 times out of 10 screwed, unless he smashes you from one end to the other and you have time to use it fully. If he right next to you, nah, you done. Besides, you'l have to use Up B eventually.