So has anyone here actually played against a good yoshi? It's hard to get out of theory-craft and into real matchups without that.
According to the yoshi boards, it used to be 65-35 for falco, citing the fact that it's really hard for him to deal with laserspam. Eggs are too slow to deal with it, and yoshi's shield and roll game is subpar; thus Falco can camp the hell out of Yoshi, force Yoshi to approach in the air against a grounded Falco, and Falco's got all the answers to Yoshi's approaches.
But apparently recently they're saying that their CG->fairspike on falco is good enough that it makes it even, or maybe even their advantage because of one grab = death. I don't know whether that's true or how effective it actually is, since Yoshi's best way of getting a grab is a pivot grab when on defense, but Falco shouldn't need to approach Yoshi. Also, at the right percents falco can cg->spike too.