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Smash Ace
I like how I found out about these AFTER our money matches...The matchup is 65:35 Marth's favor. If the Lucas knows what he's doing with spacing it's actually not all that bad. Fair can hit PK Fire so that the burst doesn't hit you if you space it right. Perfect shielding PK Fires is easy. A good Lucas player will work the lag from it and his spacing so that even were you to rush in after perfect shielding he can jab you as you approach. Dair is not counterable when done correctly. Up B does not stop autocancelled Nair combos if they're done correctly. I don't mess around with unautocancelled Nair combos because they're easily stopped by shielding things. Autocancelled Nairs repeated with proper spacing once you've shielded is only avoided by rolling. Nair has low priority though so if you predict it and are watching your spacing you can always outprioritize it easily. Lucas's game will revolve a lot around Dair combos, well spaced PK Fire and lots of edgeguarding. Marth is very vulnerable during his recovery. Lucas should never get edgeguarded by Marth. His recovery is long distance enough to avoid it if you know what you're doing.
Using Marth, I would suggest more ground approaches because it's easier to get inside Lucas's safety zone that way. With Marth in the air Lucas has more opportunities to hit with tilts and PK Fires. If the Lucas player isn't spamming smashes all over the place you won't get too many opporunities for a grab. Lucas's aerial approaches are safe if you use the right ones and space them just right. Grab release infinite is very bad for Lucas but we'll pick counterpick stages such as Brinstar or Norfair to help us out there. Marth is very beatable for Lucas. Don't act like winning is a foregone conclusion because it definetly is not. I would argue that Lucas does significantly better against Marth than Ness does but that's not really what this thread is about.
Also watch out for cross stage spamming. PKT1 and PK Freeze can both be used to camp from across large stages. These are both for the most part easily avoidable as long as you don't let them catch you offguard. Again, both of these are not easily punishable if the Lucas player is using them correctly. PKT1 can't be perfect shielded if directed correctly but you can hit it with an attack and might be able to make it there to punish in time if there isn't too much distance. Play it safe against PK Freeze. There is hardly any lag after the explosion for Lucas so he can be waiting with jabs if you're slow on punishment. In fact I use PK Freeze to bait opponents into walking right into my jabs all the time.
Hope this helps. Don't underestimate Lucas. You have the advantage by a good margin. Don't get cocky.
I'm going to have to remember this for next Wednesday.