Majoras Mask Mafia! DGames' Longest Game Ends - Who Won?!?!?!?

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Oh, ok. So essentially don't say "claim/actually freaking post or die," and I'll be good in later games?

It's acceptable to threaten a lynch if they don't claim.

The issue is you were quick to jump immediately to the next person and do the exact same thing so soon, before they posted.

It's not that you threatened as much as you changed wagons fast and wanted to threaten it immediately right when you changed wagons before John posted as well.

Don't threaten them if they aren't here, only if they refuse to claim.

 

[Raziek]

Someone would have to use a night action on him that would prove a result. A cop or a vig would be the easiest. A cop would show no result and a vig would depend on if he lived or not. This coming night he should be immune. Of course this is if people think it's worth it.

Not worth it. Not even close.

Thanks for the reasoning, Ryu.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

My fails with apparently Nabe and Solid.

You're going to have to point me to where you think you failed -- I never responded to you and you haven't been here in days. This looks like a 180.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

However, I find John's claim to be laughably bad. Besides, his role, as I understand it, is almost completely useless now that he has claimed. Also, even though some of his actions can be explained away as newbtown, his scumminess has just been stacking up way too much for me to not vote for him, and the claim just makes it worse.

Why? Elaborate.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Raz, what would you have done if you had outed someone else via counter-claim as Business Scrub, or as Commuter?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Town on Circus, J and Dabuz, which is why I didn't ask.

What about Kantrip?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Scratch that, I just got to your reads post.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

[namesearch]

I don't like this post. Red Ryu essentially took 6 random people and then chopped it down to Solid and I using bogus reasoning like "Mostly inactive" and "Doesn't seem likely." to make it look like he arrived at Solid or Nabe by some actual reasoning. Note that his actual reasoning is SUPER WEAK.

"or Nabe"?
Other than that odd fragment, I already said exactly this, so I'm glad to know my point has legs.

*Makes note* OS's slot may as well be Town, so this is worth listening to. He was pretty spot on with finding scum in MMX.

Yeeaaah set up that lynch

I agree with the majority of what Kantrip said about Nabe. Will elaborate further in final reads summary.

But is the information he's presented new to you, or did you already perceive and agree with it prior? Have you seen any of his reasoning before now from other players?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

@Kantrip:

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=13540002&postcount=1797
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=13545527&postcount=1933

 

[Raziek]

Raz, what would you have done if you had outed someone else via counter-claim as Business Scrub, or as Commuter?

I was actually hoping for that, I wanted a clear out of it.

[namesearch]

"or Nabe"?
Other than that odd fragment, I already said exactly this, so I'm glad to know my point has legs.

Ah, that was a mistake. That was supposed to be "or me".

Yeeaaah set up that lynch

Don't act like others haven't already, I'm just pointing out that a likely Town slot has a scumread and isn't often wrong. OS narrowed down to two on each day in MMX, as you know, and he had a scum in each pair. If Solid is Town, and I think he is, there's a decent chance you're scum.

But is the information he's presented new to you, or did you already perceive and agree with it prior? Have you seen any of his reasoning before now from other players?

Some of it is old, however he brought up a few things and illustrated possible intent behind some of the posts that hadn't occurred to me.

 

[Kantrip]

Nabe, I'm almost home and will get to those when I get in.

What is the second one referring to?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Okay, that works for me.

Just saying these now, because I like this kind of thing:

On a John lynch, connections:

I would like to look into Inferno more on a townJohn flip. J covered part of this already earlier, but also because of how Inferno joined this wagon. Not only these, but Xastrn's general lack of defense from scummates still indicates to me an inactive/newbie scummate (which at the time was between John and Frio for me).

To be honest, I don't know where to look on a scumflip. Circus, what do you think? I'd like to say I'd look at Raziek and Nabe, but those two actually seem more likely on a townflip. If John and Xasty were both scum, who else was? Overswarm?

From here, Kantrip.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Raz, I'm sure you're not saying you wanted to out a commuter. Or saying that you think another player's reads outweigh your own.

 

[Raziek]

Raz, I'm sure you're not saying you wanted to out a commuter. Or saying that you think another player's reads outweigh your own.

I didn't WANT to out a commuter, no, but I was looking to clear a Townie with a possible counterclaim on character.

I made the decision spur of the moment. I didn't exactly think the possible consequences all the way through.

 

[Kantrip]

That is horrid reasoning. You wanted to out a townie to get a clear? Well then, why don't we just massclaim right now?

/sarcasm

So Nabe, you want explanations for that entire post?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

So Nabe, you want explanations for that entire post?

No, I want the answer to the question I asking in 1933, about the part of the quote I bolded there.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

I asking oh man

 

[Circus]

Mmkay. So Circus, what key differences from MMX do you notice in Inferno's play that indicate he is not scum?

Mostly his boldness. In MMX, he stuck with the herd or just avoided becoming pinned to one strong read at any time. He basically made nice with everyone until he faked a doc claim and basically rode that to victory. Seeing him come out the gates swinging at Overswarm (who Inferno knows is a tough player when he wants to be), just doesn't gel with that play at all. I don't think Scumferno would have the balls to try that. I don't consider him clear because of this, but it has made Inferno pretty low priority for me.

@other parts of your post, Raz' claim was Commuter, not Even-Night Commuter, so it's not spot-on.

Fair enough. Still, it bothers me that John apparently didn't feel the need to counter-claim Raziek back when Raz initially made the gambit. Or really even comment on it at all.

Scum is prepared for a full claim, X1's not stupid. It's very likely that Xastrn thought his real claim was more plausible than his fakeclaim. Barring that, maybe X1 expected their real claims to suffice.

This is what I initially thought after Xastrn's flip. But John's claim is making me think twice. You think John is scum, don't you? Do you think it's more likely that X1 gave him a safeclaim that ****ty or that John came up with it himself?

Just because there's no ocean near the town doesn't mean that the turtle is out of the question. It's been years since I've played MM, but wasn't there an ocean in it? Town isn't limited by the physical boundaries of the 'town' in the game.

But you specifically said that you are "visiting" Clock Town. "On holiday," of all things.

And you didn't claim The Giant Turtle, or The Island Turtle, or The Turtle that takes Link to Great Bay Temple, or even just The Turtle. You claimed a sea turtle. Like, just any random sea turtle. That's akin to claiming an owl or a horse. X1 is seriously getting internet-pinched if he actually included a role like that in this game.

Raziek, your 2010 and your 2014 give me the heebie jeebies. I was way cooler with your gambit before you explained why you did it.

 

[Raziek]

Circus, I had made that clear the moment I revealed it. I decided to do it right before I went to the dentist, just to see what happened.

 

[Circus]

I understand that it was apparently a split-second decision. I don't care about that. You could have just said "I decided to do something crazy and see what happened," and I would have strolled right by it like it ain't no thang. It's the "I was trying to clear a Townie through a counterclaim" that gives me chills. It doesn't even make sense to me.

 

[Raziek]

Well, ask yourself. With John as an even-night commuter, apparently, why would he not have counterclaimed? Did he post before I let the cat out of the bag? I need to check that.

 

[Raziek]

It's a larger mafia game, so that's plausible.

Scum Hobo, hmm...
As was stated during Twilight (or before it, not 100%), Xastrn being a town hobo didn't make much sense, in that the hobo "ability" wouldn't be able to do much to help the town, since the information received could have been anything from "was wearing green socks today" to "was seen with a gun".

I am still thinking that Circus was bussing Xastrn, and was more than willing to let him go to protect his own image.





At the moment, Circus. Circus's come off to me as a somewhat hothead towards me, wanting to tunnel in on and clear me out.

I do not have enough "why" to support a second scumpick at the moment.




J. He seems to be very straightforward with his posts, and has evidence to back reads/picks up. Even if he is working himself to death on a dracula play.



I'm still not sure I like the Backup Lynch idea that was tossed around. Seems like a lose-lose to town for me, since it'll whittle down the people, therefore allowing surviving Mafia to manipulate the votes more against the Town. Still not quite 100% on the whole King idea, but I'd like to see how that plays out toDay.



Yes, I'm noobtown. I try to read through everything as much as I can, but usually don't have much to comment on afterwards. :/




It's 1AM. I need some sleep now.

So I'm not actually the Business Scrub, nor am I a Commuter. I saw Nabe's gambit when it began, and fake-claimed to create a dual gambit that I hoped would get some more interesting reactions.

Circus's reaction was interesting, I'm going to quote all the relevant reactions.

I was hoping to get something more out of Overswarm before I let it go, but now that Nabe's let his end out there's not much reason for me to continue the facade.

So he DID post before I let it out. So why didn't he CC me?

 

[Circus]

He did post before you said you were gambitting. I checked. This is something I consider problematic for the believability of his claim (which is already in dire straits), and I actually just mentioned it in my 2018.

But I still don't understand the logic. Why would you try to get a clear on a townie by getting them to counterclaim you? Especially this early in the game. Do you realize that probably just would have gotten you lynched?

 

[Raziek]

I made the decision spur of the moment. I didn't exactly think the possible consequences all the way through.

I don't really know what to tell you, Circus. It hasn't crossed my mind when I decided to do it, but after the fact it became a possibility.

Like, I have no other way to describe it other than a "lightbulb moment". I just did it.

 

[Raziek]

EBWOP: hadn't.

 

[Circus]

So you were hoping to get a clear townie from the gambit before you deployed it, or it occurred to you that could be a benefit of the gambit afterward?

 

[Raziek]

The latter.

 

[Raziek]

I am a Deku, FYI. Part of why I picked the Business Scrub.

 

[Circus]

The latter.

Okay.

I was actually hoping for that, I wanted a clear out of it.

I didn't WANT to out a commuter, no, but I was looking to clear a Townie with a possible counterclaim on character.

You realize it's difficult for me make that fit with quotes like these, right?

I am a Deku, FYI. Part of why I picked the Business Scrub.

Good to know, I suppose.

 

[Raziek]

I realize that Circus. That wording came mostly as a result of this:

Raz, I'm sure you're not saying you wanted to out a commuter. Or saying that you think another player's reads outweigh your own.

Nabe used past tense, so I responded in kind. I realize that makes the intentions sort of unclear, but that's the best I can explain it.

 

[Kantrip]

When did this happen?

I had suspicions of Raz first. In D1, when I made my huge post that had quotes and stuff. I analyzed interactions between him and J, and looked at how he was playing, and I had a lean scum read on him (the other two who had this read were Xastrn and John2k4. Here's the post if you'd like to see it:

My post 995.

Here's the end of that post, where I provided my reads:

Alright, so: after a proper re-read, here are my reads:

Raziek
T-Block
Overswarm
Xastrn
Solid
Panta
Red Ryu
dabuz
Nabe
Circus
Werekill
John2k4
Kantrip
J
Frio

The read is either explained in the massive wall, or is null.

So, this is only my thoughts on everything that went on before my original read post. This is basically what it SHOULD have been, and I completely ignored it when making this.

I think Xastrn is the best lynch for today, so my vote remains on him for now.

As for when I started disliking you, Nabe; I mention it in this post:

That is very much what I was hoping to see, thank you J.

I agree with so much of that. To be honest, I REALLY want to lynch John toDay. Originally I planed to make some BS case and ask him what he thought of it as a gambit of sorts to get a read. So I re-read a bit, and tried to look for a case I could make up. Then I saw Nabe's strange attitude towards the lynch targets D1 and started reading into him more and actually found a legit case to be made. The result was me making an actual case and getting less of a read on John.

The point still stands: His play has been so opportunistic. At times I feel like giving up and saying "ugh it's just noobtown", but then he comes in saying something like "have you decided a FB lynch" or "I'm trying to answer your questions", or even "Vote: Solid because lulul opportunistic".

Depending on flip, we can look into others (namely Nabe, Inferno, and Raz for me. Maybe WK as well). Raz made a valid point: John is playing very scummy and is likely scum. On the chance that he is not, he is still a detriment to town and his play could ruin as in an endgame scenario. Look at what happened with felipe in Awkard Moments. All it takes is one easy to manipulate player in LyLo and scum wins.

D1 we lynched scum. This gives us an advantage, already. Let's not lose that by lynching people like Solid (I don't even know why he's at L-1 right now, someone feel free to remind me) who are more likely to be helpful if they are town in the endgame.

Basically I was re-reading early toDay to make a case that I could present to John and gauge his opinion on it. I wasn't expecting to make a legitimate case, but then I noticed that there were several things of yours that hadn't been pointed out yet that I didn't like. So I made my case on you.

The reason I say you two would look more likely on a town flip is just generally what I read from your reaction towards this wagon. You both voiced your willingness to place your votes (though didn't because that would've put him at L-1 and hammered, respectively). This fact alone makes me believe neither of you are likely scum with John. That's why I said you'd be more likely on a townflip.

Did I clarify that one, Nabe?

 

[Circus]

I realize that Circus. That wording came mostly as a result of this:

Nabe used past tense, so I responded in kind. I realize that makes the intentions sort of unclear, but that's the best I can explain it.

Well, at this point, I don't really expect you to be able to explain it in a way that I will find acceptable.

Nabe, when were you planning on pursuing Raziek for a lynch? Is John still the play toDay?

 

[Kantrip]

Unrelated note, but Panta is town. Both from meta and from how Xastrn condemned him when he jumped on spellcasters. Turns out, Xasty was the one being opportunistic. Panta is town, and I think Inferno looks more town than John atm.

 

[Kantrip]

Also, in my #995, replace most mentions of Raziek buddying J with Raziek sheeping J. I didn't know the term before, so I just said buddying.

Looking back, I noticed: After I made that post, Raziek started giving a bit on his own (and J started asking for it). During this phase, Raziek made his own points for a time (though they never seemed like complete thoughts, some were a bit reachy). After a bit, he stopped again and went back to sheeping/coasting.

Fast forward to his play now, and he's making hollow gambits for the sake of "making a dual gambit". All this does is confuse town further. He says he got an idea of how the gambit could be useful AFTER he did it. This is scummy. I don't care what you were thinking before you went to the dentist, why would you throw out a hollow fake-claim gambit without reasoning? Oh right, you wanted to get a town clear. Oh wait, but you didn't want a CC, you just wanted a clear. Oh but wait, you ACTUALLY thought of this after.

FoS: Raziek

Personally, I think we should get rid of Raziek after John. If people think John is noobtown, we can let him live, though I'd prefer to clean off inactive scumminess.

 

[Kantrip]

Personally, I think we should get rid of Raziek after John. If people think John is noobtown, we can let him live, though I'd prefer to clean off inactive scumminess.

I meant to say if people think John is noobtown, we can let him live FOR NOW and lynch Raziek instead.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

This is what I initially thought after Xastrn's flip. But John's claim is making me think twice. You think John is scum, don't you? Do you think it's more likely that X1 gave him a safeclaim that ****ty or that John came up with it himself?

His claim is pretty bad, but I think that speaks to the nature of the setup. (Note: not a statement that X1 is a bad mod, haha.) Assuming as we have been that race is very important in this game, there's going to be a (large) degree to which the setup is built around it, i.e. if X1 had wanted to make a game with the regular human characters, he would have. But if X1 set out to make a setup and fill it with 5 races of characters, then he had to think outside the box.

For example, there's only one Goron in Clock Town proper over the course of the game. (Well, two if you count the no-name Goron in the Bomb Shop, who would be a very sketchy character.) So for there to be multiple Gorons in this game, we'd be looking at the Gorons who lived in Snowhead, like the Goron Elder, or his baby, or maybe the big one blocking passageway to the temple. Likewise with Zoras and Dekus, the sole members within Clock Town are the Business Scrub (expect to see Deku Princess) and the band manager Zora (expect to see Lulu). You said there are 5 Humans, which suggests that there are multiples of the other races.

You also said there are 3 Unclassifieds, right? So thinking on the possibilities within Clock Town, there's Tatl and Tael, the Great Fairy, the dog, the hand in the hotel toilet, maybe Tingle (since he considers himself a fairy), maybe Kamaro the ghost outside the walls (more likely than Tingle). Sea Turtle is quite the stretch when you look at that list, especially considering he's a turtle the size of an island and likely stuck at sea, but it's not outside the realm of possibility for the setup. If X1 needed one more Unclassified character and he needed to fill a Commuter spot (assuming he wrote at least some of the setup prior to filling in character slots), then Sea Turtle fits the purpose.

All that said, I doubt the claim, and not because he's claiming to be a giant turtle. Although, the phrase "visiting Clock Town on holiday" certainly gives me pause when he shouldn't be able to fit through the gates. (And imagine him wading in the shallow pools of water by the Clock Tower.)

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

[/flavour mastery]

 

[John2k4]

I paraphrased that the best I could without quoting the entire thing, and it does say that I am visiting on holiday. Perhaps this means my "home" is from outside the physical Clock Town region, but I am visiting the town/town area. Similar to the other Gorons in Snowhead that Nabe put up there.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Nabe, when were you planning on pursuing Raziek for a lynch? Is John still the play toDay?

The plan has always been keeping Raziek around for a few Days. He's useful. This recent post by him is believably just poor wording.

John should go toDay -- that said, if he's town I have to choose between Raz and Kantrip which sucks, and I'd be happy to get that going now so we don't lose ground, especially if there's a possibility of John proving his ability. But I don't think John is town so that's a very roundabout way of saying he's the lynch.

I didn't mean it when I said I had a case prepared on Raz, that was part of the gambit. I could bull**** one at this point, because I think he's scummy as ****, but I'm not sold on him being scum despite what I keep saying to the contrary. I've pointed out my doubts on a couple occasions. Mainly he's served as a foil to investigations, and as a sounding board while I fervently try to read him.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Unrelated note, but Panta is town. Both from meta and from how Xastrn condemned him when he jumped on spellcasters. Turns out, Xasty was the one being opportunistic. Panta is town, and I think Inferno looks more town than John atm.

I already established Pantatown to a T, didn't I? What did you think of Pantatown when I voiced my reasoning?