Ha, if only it were that easy.
I’ve long planned a video on this topic (Marth’s chain grab). I currently have PAL Fox from 0-7% damage before uthrow mapped out for fully stale and unstale uthrow (that took something between 10 and 20 hours). I’m still not sure how I can properly explain this in a video, and I certainly won’t manage to do that here. I can give you a quick explanation, but I don’t want to go into details since I’ll have to do this again for the video anyway. Frankly it takes way too much work to research and document this properly than I’d want for a post that will get lost on page 39 of this thread.
This is a map for PAL Fox’s fully-stale uthrow DI options. Control stick x on Fox’ controller is tested, y is always at neutral position.
The grey bar symbolizes the horizontal dead zone of the controller, the white dot in the middle is 128 (controller value) / 0 (Melee value). These have been mapped from GCC values, which means that I didn’t use Magus’ input display, so the ranges’ offset to the white dot can vary up to ±3 depending on your stickbox alignment / calibration. The ranges itself are unchanged by this, so to compare DI options they are still perfectly valid.
Green lines are standing regrab, purple is turn regrab. Background colors denote frame window for Marth’s regrab (black=0 red=1 orange=2 etc.).
The overlap between stand and turn regrab is very small, 2-3 values depending on percent and staleness. I‘ve taken save files at the positions just outside of that area (which means that only one of the two options will connect there), and the visual difference between a Fox who DI’s just enough to escape stand regrab and one who DI’s just enough to escape turn regrab is so slim that it’s hardly possible to tell
when looking at the still frames. I’m absolutely certain that I will not be able to tell in a match whether my opponent DI’d barely left or right of the overlap area.
Maybe I would with months of practicing this, but even then I’d have to memorize it for almost every single percent, and keep track in my head of my current uthrow staling.
I try to avoid making absolute statements when there is possibility for a contrary outcome, but I think the chances that a Marth player can always correctly recognize the amount of DI are almost zero.
For the aforementioned reasons, I won’t take screenshots to show this here. You’ll have to wait for my video or test it yourself / have someone else do it.
I also (most probably) won’t answer follow-up questions to this, due to the same reasons. I write this mainly to explain why I’m taking so long. (And it’s not like I’ll be finished with the chain-grab video soon, I expect the total workload to be about 800 hours.)