Jungle Republic Mafia: To Clarify, the Werewolves Won The Game. Here Marks a New Age in Activity Reform.

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Did I say there’s a third party definitely?

No I said I’ve seen third parties use similar strats and whoever the WW is could take inspiration from those types of playa

Not to mention now your just nitpicking.

Your problem before was my inactivity now your saying it’s me slipping. Your literally pulling terms out of your *** to try and make me look bad, and that’s sad.

My reaction was far from emotional. That’s a hell of a stretch you put out there. I asked what made you think that, and you chose to not answer and sayid I was emotional.

Your logic is lacking.

Rereading as a third party, your reaction here on page 11 is a huge overreach.

You went right after him fast for the neck but I find your reasoning to be less sound.

I’m not with KevMo with the set up stuff, I am when it comes to hoe you reacted to his call out.

 

[Maven89]

If he’s town and WW kill off a town slot we are in MYLO, can you give me just one name if you can.

I’ve been on the Red Ryu train since Day 1

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I feel like a colossal ******.
I’m kinda rethinking everything right now.

Z25 is lore only 50/50 in your mind because you know him to be aggressive? Kevin looks to be a sure thing in your mind because of his aggression. What gives there?

this is really all you got for us pythag? you said early game that you were gonna be less wishy washy and take harder stances, I'd love to see more of that.[/QUOTE]

I said I’d be less wishy washy, I didn’t think what I said was wishy washy.

I’m also still phone posting and I have read stuff wrong routinely while on a phone, so that is me trying to be a bit more cautious I suppose

i feel more confident mac is town,
Today’s Kevin looks a LOT more familiar, I think I’m writing off day one as him being with a bunch of new players.


Kevin has caught Z25 in what looks like someone who didn’t read the setup.

Mac caught Lore in what looks like a situation where Lore didn’t read before he posted.

Off the cuff:
I don’t like z25’s defense, i would like to read it on a computer though where it’s easier to cross reference with other things being said.

Need to reread Lore, I was pretty convinced that he was town, but I also was fine with Tom. I’m waning on my support of him staying alive.

Rajam hammered brindol, which is odd, because of like the three posts that Rajam had, one of them was in reference to how he was only 3 pages in. If he is going chronically slow, his did he manage to know that we needed a hammer? Seems kinda scummy?
I wasn’t happy with his slot before, but I’m less happy now.

FoS on whoever hasn’t been talking about the hammer
vote Rajam

Only when prodded but even past that, deadline for Brindol was only a few hours right? Why this focus?

Still washy.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Only post here gives me pause with the connection, also might be seeing the writing on the wall and then busing.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Wow it never posted.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I’m not a bothered with Z on later pages though, his OMGUS is the biggest issue.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Seems kinda of sudden. He had some thoughts on you yesterday, but he’s takes about several people. He offered a lot more detail on everyone else before he voted you though. Which is odd that he did that. If he was intent on you, I would imagine you would have had more of a focus in his recent posts. His vote might also be because of the post indicating your suspicions of him, and he could be jumping on. The wagon that was slowly forming, assuming be paid attention to vote count.

I don’t think his post is set up the best, but his reasons in the after post I can kind of understand. It more just feels a little left field t me tbh.

Hmm then I get to page 14 and he is super wishy washy, some reads feel like this.

I need to think on this. A lot of second guessing but some non firm stances.

Hard to say, I think his Kevin vote is weak, Maven and Rajam are what they are.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

So you think I’m scum, but chose to vote Kevin. However you said a Kevin scum flip would make you look at me as scum. Yet you haven’t really explained that and I wonder why is your train of thought here?

Also the last post you discussed was around the 154 mark. We are not at 572. So did you catch up, or are you actually still behind?

Z25 might have a point here. Hmm how Rajam posted and voted was weird.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

The focus of Rajam and his votes are what give me pause, do not care for z25’s focus but the vote is the concern.

Maven seems to be thinking for himself, at least offering his own ideas but his push on Mac OS weird as hell on page 15. He is hung up about Mac calling himself town with boasting.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Rax should absolutely go today.


I didn’t change my vote on you Kevin because I was avoiding the early hammer on lore and or allowing someone it easier.

Rax should have seen the post made requesting no hammers, as we were actually getting good discussion for once and still waiting to hear from some people again. Now maven has skated by another day without contributing to much and I really dislike that.

But rax deliberately caused all that. I think they should be the play today as that was really scummy

Opportunistic to jump on this, why so hard on this push? What about your other players like KevMo you hates?

 

[Z25]

Opportunistic to jump on this, why so hard on this push? What about your other players like KevMo you hates?

That hammer was unacceptable.

They’ve been just showing up near the end of days, not contributing much, just jumping on wagons. Content and actions like that I deemed a lot worse then kevin.

Kevin at least was encouraging discussion and knew the importance of no hammer. Rax came in and cut all discussion way short. It feels like they want to keep discussion to a minimum so that it’s harder for others to play. I didn’t like any of that so they jumped up on my list.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Right so

Right so I reread everything.

Town
Raxxel
FF

Null town
KevinM
rajam

Scum lean
Maven

Scum
Z25
pythag(mafia)

I 180’d on maven a bit on a reread, his thoughts are his own fake or not. But his push on Mac looks off to me with that flip on mind. He couldn’t know this as town of he is but I like Rajam more on a reread between everybody. His activity with content gives me more pause for what he offered.

I’m not as confident in this one as much and some flips would open me up to rethinking this. I don’t like how his reads formed and his long post day 2 makes me more uneasy.

Pythag looks more and more mafia with his reads and connections. I pointed this out earlier but the lore and Tom reads look really bad with the timing of turning on lore even more so.

Z25 can die, i’m not a fan of that slots progression of reads and reactions to pressure. Z is looking for a lynch with very little consistent from what I can see. A lot of weak reasoning with the Mac and other votes.

Would vote z, but I want content from #HBC | FrozeηFlame Maven89 Rajam

More elaboration is needed.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Done rambling have at it.

 

[Z25]

Right so

Right so I reread everything.

Town
Raxxel
FF

Null town
KevinM
rajam

Scum lean
Maven

Scum
Z25
pythag(mafia)

I 180’d on maven a bit on a reread, his thoughts are his own fake or not. But his push on Mac looks off to me with that flip on mind. He couldn’t know this as town of he is but I like Rajam more on a reread between everybody. His activity with content gives me more pause for what he offered.

I’m not as confident in this one as much and some flips would open me up to rethinking this. I don’t like how his reads formed and his long post day 2 makes me more uneasy.

Pythag looks more and more mafia with his reads and connections. I pointed this out earlier but the lore and Tom reads look really bad with the timing of turning on lore even more so.

Z25 can die, i’m not a fan of that slots progression of reads and reactions to pressure. Z is looking for a lynch with very little consistent from what I can see. A lot of weak reasoning with the Mac and other votes.

Would vote z, but I want content from #HBC | FrozeηFlame Maven89 Rajam

More elaboration is needed.

Now that you have had a few changes upon re read,

Does you list of scum change upon my flip?

Also I might as well ask since you seem against my content.

What’s such a proble with my rax opinion?

Kevin literally said there should be no hammer, and a few posts later they come in and hammer.

They’ve only shown up once outside of deadline and it was to try and push a lynch in Kevin. Which they backed off of real quick and disappeared when it backfired. For someone close to your full town reads, I imagine you would take issue with him trying this in someone seen so much as town.

Not to mention they still haven’t come back to contribute really. In fact I bet they early hammer again if it comes down to it.

Rax has put a poor display of activity and content in this game. They shouldn’t be allowed to skim by like this. I don’t care if I’m a lynch target, but I really don’t get how you can read him as so town.

His reasons for each lynch are pretty poor and he tries to justify his lynches(such as yesterday) by saying they totally felt against that slot they helped lynch. Meanwhile they haven’t really stood firm on things and just disappear. That isn’t town intent.

 

[Z25]

Now that you have had a few changes upon re read,

Does you list of scum change upon my flip?

Also I might as well ask since you seem against my content.

What’s such a proble with my rax opinion?

Kevin literally said there should be no hammer, and a few posts later they come in and hammer.

They’ve only shown up once outside of deadline and it was to try and push a lynch in Kevin. Which they backed off of real quick and disappeared when it backfired. For someone close to your full town reads, I imagine you would take issue with him trying this in someone seen so much as town.

Not to mention they still haven’t come back to contribute really. In fact I bet they early hammer again if it comes down to it.

Rax has put a poor display of activity and content in this game. They shouldn’t be allowed to skim by like this. I don’t care if I’m a lynch target, but I really don’t get how you can read him as so town.

His reasons for each lynch are pretty poor and he tries to justify his lynches(such as yesterday) by saying they totally felt against that slot they helped lynch. Meanwhile they haven’t really stood firm on things and just disappear. That isn’t town intent.

To clarify the first part. On a town flip would you reads change yet again?

 

[Raxxel]

I'll say

Now that you have had a few changes upon re read,

Does you list of scum change upon my flip?

Also I might as well ask since you seem against my content.

What’s such a proble with my rax opinion?

Kevin literally said there should be no hammer, and a few posts later they come in and hammer.

They’ve only shown up once outside of deadline and it was to try and push a lynch in Kevin. Which they backed off of real quick and disappeared when it backfired. For someone close to your full town reads, I imagine you would take issue with him trying this in someone seen so much as town.

Not to mention they still haven’t come back to contribute really. In fact I bet they early hammer again if it comes down to it.

Rax has put a poor display of activity and content in this game. They shouldn’t be allowed to skim by like this. I don’t care if I’m a lynch target, but I really don’t get how you can read him as so town.

His reasons for each lynch are pretty poor and he tries to justify his lynches(such as yesterday) by saying they totally felt against that slot they helped lynch. Meanwhile they haven’t really stood firm on things and just disappear. That isn’t town intent.

This... Is just plain wrong. First, I didn't even have a hand in Brindor's lynch, so "lynches" plural is plain dishonest. Secondly, I never said I was "totally against" lore at all. I in fact displayed a lot of hesitance towards hopping on the Lore wagon before finally giving in due to the inevitability of their death. Do I regret my reckless hammer that ultimately cost us more discussion with Mac involved? Yes, had I even suspected that Mac would get mauled by WW's I possibly wouldn't have voted for the lynch again period so we could have as much time as possible with him to help deduce scum. Also, wagon jumping? What? If you're pointed towards my constant vote shifting, for one my vote on Kevin stayed the entirety of D2 if I remember correctly, so frankly that is just an outright misrepresentation of my later content. My D1 activity was at least half vote pressure, calling it wagoning is inaccurate. The only one you can call a wagon is Tom I think.

 

[KevinM]

Raxxel

Current reads list in full, one or two line reason on each player also please.

Assuming I’m wrong and Z25 flips town who would you look at tomorrow give me one name we would most likely be in Lylo

 

[Z25]

I'll say

This... Is just plain wrong. First, I didn't even have a hand in Brindor's lynch, so "lynches" plural is plain dishonest. Secondly, I never said I was "totally against" lore at all. I in fact displayed a lot of hesitance towards hopping on the Lore wagon before finally giving in due to the inevitability of their death. Do I regret my reckless hammer that ultimately cost us more discussion with Mac involved? Yes, had I even suspected that Mac would get mauled by WW's I possibly wouldn't have voted for the lynch again period so we could have as much time as possible with him to help deduce scum. Also, wagon jumping? What? If you're pointed towards my constant vote shifting, for one my vote on Kevin stayed the entirety of D2 if I remember correctly, so frankly that is just an outright misrepresentation of my later content. My D1 activity was at least half vote pressure, calling it wagoning is inaccurate. The only one you can call a wagon is Tom I think.

I didn't even mention brin's lynch. Lynches is being used to describe your overall activity with them. And I'll give you I misremember your wording a little there.

However I wouldn't calling coming in at the end of the day with this:

As much as I hate to say it, at this point, flipping the Lore slot is the most productive thing to do. Otherwise Lore v Mac will just drag out to the end of the day while dominating the thread, and we'll likely be left lynching Lore anyway due to the majority vote on him. I think Lore's death is inevitable at this point, so I'd rather it happens now so we can keep progressing this conversation in the right direction more than anything else.

Vote Lore

and just this, is not really hesitation. If you were so against their lynch, then you could have voted elsewhere. Doesn't mean that vote has to lead to a lynch, but you didn't show much remorse in voting here. "giving in" because of popularity is a poor choice. You basically admit to just going with the crowd vote cause why not.

You also mention how lore vs mac would dominate the thread, giving off the intent you don't want to sit there and let it go on.

However, now you regret the hammer because of mac? I'm sorry but that doesn't cut it. Discussions in the thread no matter what should never get cut short. If mac's content was so good, then you would have read the thread and actually chose to not hammer. Its really that simple. Your regret no makes little sense given your post from that hammer. It makes you seem like your trying to show support for a townie who you ultimately didn't care for prior giving your wording. Also you wanted more mac content, but somehow ending the day progresses content in the right direction?

That makes zero sense. You sound like your try to backpedal now and I really dislike the vibes I'm getting from the stark contrast here.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Now that you have had a few changes upon re read,

Does you list of scum change upon my flip?

Also I might as well ask since you seem against my content.

What’s such a proble with my rax opinion?

Kevin literally said there should be no hammer, and a few posts later they come in and hammer.

They’ve only shown up once outside of deadline and it was to try and push a lynch in Kevin. Which they backed off of real quick and disappeared when it backfired. For someone close to your full town reads, I imagine you would take issue with him trying this in someone seen so much as town.

Not to mention they still haven’t come back to contribute really. In fact I bet they early hammer again if it comes down to it.

Rax has put a poor display of activity and content in this game. They shouldn’t be allowed to skim by like this. I don’t care if I’m a lynch target, but I really don’t get how you can read him as so town.

His reasons for each lynch are pretty poor and he tries to justify his lynches(such as yesterday) by saying they totally felt against that slot they helped lynch. Meanwhile they haven’t really stood firm on things and just disappear. That isn’t town intent.

First i’d push Maven.

After that I’d take a closer look at Kevin.

I’m pretty certain Pythag is the mafia goon from interactions.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

So, according to RR :



Pythag's wishy washy. He hasn't committed all game!



Well except for committing to me, BUT, he hasn't tried to read into anything else.

QUOTE="#HBC | Red Ryu, post: 23513670, member: 119088"

He’s Only thinking to move on them when the ball was rolling on Lore.

Well, except for developing his read on Lore...and Mac....and his questioning of Z25, but look at THIS :





But these situations are not equal. And I think if they had been, at least Maven would've jumped on me, since he's the other one upset at your early comment.

Raxxel had laid a super defensive statement with 'you will regret it', then defended himself with 'mafia will have more leverage on town' to which you THEN said "I need more"

Brindor had proven to be unwilling to talk:
I asked him why he voted for mac, and he said "Because I felt like it"
When people voted for him he said "Pls don't lynch me pls"
I think it's well within reason to say "convince me"

I don't know if it can be argued I said "I need more" because Brindor hadn't given ANYTHING yet.
I wanted him to give any meaningful input. If he was waiting for an invitation, I was trying to give it to him.[/QUOTE]

So you tunneled a read on me without asking me any questions to your read.

Then what you never committed to anything all game until the group made a decision.

Also bull on it not being a double standard. Brindol has jack for content like Raxxel had. There is no difference between the two. I offered the same chance you did yourself with Brindol.

What did Raxxel have on page 3 or so? Next to nothing like most of the game.

 

[Rajam]

Wanted to finish reading D2 but I'm too tired and I need to sleep. Currently at page 15. Tomorrow I should finally have spare time and I'll address the stuff directed at me.

• The chainsaw defense from rexx is def pinging for me, I've had this feeling that there was some light buddying going on between these two slots but haven't really been able to put my finger on it. Do you think noobscum playing together would be this obvious?

I'll redirect this question to you: chances of Z25 - Raxxel being the scum team?​

• #416 up to #438: Kev not scum with Z25. #416 honestly feels like Kevin’s bulb got lit, and the way in which he accuses Z25 without explaining is a lightningrod set on purpose; Kevin truly wanted the attention on Z25 and trigger all kind of reactions. Strong disconnection imo

• Tom going specifically out of his way in like his only relevant post of the game to call something out from Z25 wrt his post about “what game was I scum” puts me under the impression they weren’t the same alignment.

Kevin which post was this? Still think Z25 is not-mafia?​

• Still haven't deeply read the end of D2, I just know Raxxel hammered early. Tbh I'd eat my face if Raxxel flips mafia. Definitely don't see him pulling such a gambit. Not scum with Lore/Tom

---

I'm definitely thinking Maven is the 3rd mafioso. That said, we should really lynch a werewolf toDay, and so I think Maven's not the play toDay. Why is Maven the 3rd?

- I already stated through disconnections/PoE that the 3rd mafioso is either him, Raxxel or Z25. Let's get rid of Raxxel's name here because there's no way he'd bus his last teammate that hard D2 by hammering early and pulling superb level gambits. So, 3rd mafioso is either Maven or Z25

- And then Mac's #553 is super on point and I totally agree with his Maven's read. Quoting for you all to read (2nd paragraph is the one that matters the most):

and now Maven, so last night and this morning I was thinking about the Kevin/Tom/Lore connection (and whether I was even gonna post about it), was thinking about how my mental model of the game has too many town reads, and was thinking about the inactives and how they deserve to die. Made me feel that maybe I should reconsider my gut town read on Maven and eventually realized there's a case that he's mafia scum with Lore and Tom (super coincidental given what he posted earlier). I've noticed that I've liked Maven's slot despite him doing things that would usually make me wary, i.e: not responding to the billion questions I asked him d1 and the fact that he hadn't contributed that much d1 and seemed to comment on things after they'd been discussed by others (it took him a long while to comment on Lore vs Me). but when he did post I generally liked it. His take on Lore seemed solid at the end of the Day and him voting Tom while noone else was looked reallly good to me. Because of the Tom thing, I still think Maven's not-WW cuz i don't see WW!Maven killing Tom N1.

but Maven being aligned with Tom / Lore kinda makes sense: Despite him having a strong scum read on Lore at EoD1, he decided to stay on Tom's wagon instead of join the rest of us in getting Lore killed. esp problematic since his position on the wagon could potentially have turned the tides and brought the momentum needed that'd make a Lore kill actually go through. Also while I was giving him kudos (and still do to an extent) for his vote on Tom, it is kinda suspect that he decided to stay on Tom instead of joining Lore's wagon at such a critical point in time. mafia!Maven could have figured it was a low risk time to disconnect heavily from his scummate Tom. If he had actually advocated the Tom lynch more instead of just pointlessly staying on it at the end of day, then maybe this wouldn't look as bad. He did go ahead and make a post talking about why Brindor should be the play, and while I don't shade him for doing this, it is notable that he goes from being on Tom to voting Brindor, while never trying to make the Lore lynch happen, someone that it seems he has a clear scum read on. and tbh, i'm basing all of this on memory and haven't reread the end of day wagon so i might be off when it comes to some of the details. i'm gonna reread both that and the very early interactions re: Tom's first post between all 3 of them, Lore maven and Tom

 

[Rajam]

There's a certain post which I'll mention later, but first I need to ask everyone something:

How many games have you played with Tom before this one?

#HBC | FrozeηFlame
#HBC | Red Ryu
KevinM
Maven89
Pythag
Raxxel
Z25

 

[Z25]

There's a certain post which I'll mention later, but first I need to ask everyone something:

How many games have you played with Tom before this one?

#HBC | FrozeηFlame
#HBC | Red Ryu
KevinM
Maven89
Pythag
Raxxel
Z25

With Tom, I can only recall one game and that’s this:
https://smashboards.com/threads/fir...ds-vs-old-mods-game-over-new-mods-win.480370/

I was wright and co law office in that. Tom has been around but hasn’t played many games in recent months. It’s why I had a hard time forming an opinion on him earlier. If you want to look at his actions and behavior for reference that game is probably your best bet from recent times

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Sorry guys got ****ing slammed at work these past two days which has kept me stuck late at the office which made me fall behind my leveling group for classsic which meant playing late to try to keep pace which meant little to no sleep.... you get the idea. standard RL johns but I'm gonna do my best to check in by phone during work tomorrow afternoon as my morning is literally booked solid with court settings but my afternoon is much more chill. This is a pivotal day phase and Im not about to ****ing drop the ball and not show up

Why me and not Rajam?

really liked this question, shows maven is actually paying attention to principal consistency re: what slots are arguing and looking for arbitrary exceptions to distinguish slots that aren't quite so distinguishable. this is how you find people acting on hidden agendas, town points here imo

Every time I can bro a game with Mac one of us dies before D3... literally doomed to never be able to finish a game.

Still extremely mad about the Raxxel vote, inclined to see we need to deal with this slot sooner rather than later but I'd like to stick with one of Z25 or RR today.

Heavily leaning Z25 but both slots have been on my radar since D1.

Pythag thoughts on how we deal with a slot like Raxxel.

We are down to 3 anti-town slots, 5 town slots.

I am starting to feel the pressure of hitting a WW. Going into D3 we ML and they still have a night kill we are in some serious trouble.

Worst case scenario we go down to

1 Mafia
2 WW
3 Townies

Which then is actually MYLO

So we're not technically in Mylo yet but we're pretty damn close. Stopping night kills should be our biggest priority.

Z25 is my biggest lean on WW, RR is up there and I could see that being a team or at the very least both anti-town. Raxxel if he is our last WW is a major concern because we can't really afford to guess on this slot.

Rajam being allowed to make it to D3 like this is literally worst case scenario for us because if he's town he's never drawing a Nkill because he's got so many question marks on his slot for just severe lack of activity and if he's WW we're basically lynching him on Inactivity == Scum like Mac was saying yesterDay

this is an excellent post, glad to see Kevmo stepping up solid analysis like this especially considering the huge ****ing towniness vacuum that's been left as a result of mac eating a bullet

like these are all on point takes. Mac death took out the lode stone of our HBC which is frustrating as **** even if it was a pretty obvious play given how many slots townread mac. Raxxel vote was absolute trash timing wise, but obviously not target wise. Agreed that raxxel in endgame will be a ****in nightmare for town. Z25 looks worse by the post, like page 17 is one giant red ****ing flag

RR-Z25 pair for WWs seems very plausible but Im also getting badddddd ****in vibes from RRs treatment of pythag recently. more on that later

I get the concern re: possibility of Raxx being WW but tbh I think those odds are astronomically low. if he's not noobtown he's the lingering scummate of lore and tom and they just deliberately ignored him all game for distancing purposes

MYLO analysis is just straight up on point, nothing else to add

See above for my viewpoint on your slot and Z25. Are you deliberately being whiny with the WW stuff or do you just think it's time to be obtuse on D3?

I don't see a single situation where I vote for Pythag today.

Currently its:

Z25
RR


Rajam
Raxxel
Maven

Pythag
FF


Z25 Given what I've said about how close we are to MYLO, what does your current lynch pool look like. Also give me two names that are definite lynch candidates today and if they are WW or Mafia to you.

obviously im a bit biased here but this scum list, assuming its ranked in descending order from most scummy down to least which I think is clear from context in the post, is a refreshingly solid assessment of this game state. I'd swap raxxel and maven probably, but that's a pretty minor difference. The thing that worries me though is the potential for an RR/pythag WW team, again which I'll go into more detail later, but essentially I think RR is all of a sudden trying to distance pythag because he's afraid of being in the lynchpool today and wants pythag to be disassociated with him when he (RR) flips WW. If I were pythags WW partner tbh I'd probably be doing the same thing because I think pythag's slot has kind of been a strong endgame contender all game. Not par excellence like Mac, but contributing enough to be townread with some confidence. But of course if people are townreading pythag because he's playing a great scum game, then of COURSE RR, the more commonly scumread partner, would go out of his way to set himself up for a bus by pythag by forcing them to 1v1. Does that make sense to anyone else?

#HBC | FrozeηFlame :
- Your defense of pythag in #304 feels off, considering you had him as a confusing town lean in #253. Why not wait a bit to further develop a read?
- Did you ever deliver the results of your read about Jungle Republic theory, offered at #394?
- What's your read on Z25?

re: first bullet point a "confusing" town lean is still lower on my priority list for plays than my scumleans. That's why I was questioning RR for pushing a pythag lynch over other slots that I thought were far more sensible candidates. Thanks for linking me back to that post though because the post I was quoting from RR only makes me more wary that there may be a low key distancing effort going on between these slots that RR has now kicked into high gear at a pivotal phase

second bullet point I'm not even sure what you're asking? like are you asking if I found any endgame resolution rules that changed my assessment of how we should prioritize focus on pursuing WWs vs. non-killing scum? Because if you are the answer is no, and after double checking the rules as laid out in this thread my assumptions about how endgame would be resolved lined up exactly with how the rules are written here

re: Z25 def a top play for me today. Everything about his content on page 17 reeks. I mean look at this ****:

Except I never backed off of you. My vote was on you all day yesterday.

And just because your not at the top of the list, doesn’t mean I buy your town. Hell this further proves my point.


Your going with an inactive player who was playing like trash the past few days, and somehow they can magically form this super well informed opinion of the thread and game, despite being new and inactive?

Nah ngl your pretty dumb if you buy their act. That post is clearly made by a scum mate with way more experience then rajam. I’m even considering you to be that teammate.


Not only have you had a thirst for controlling the lynch but now your ready to go all in on an active when you made a series of rage based posts after the hammer yesterday exepressing your anger towards those slots.

That’s a big flop, and you honesty shouldn’t be allowed to get away with that.

And I don’t want to hear more of your “ my emotion reactions” bull****. Because honesty that’s one of the worst things in mafia imo. It makes no sense on a game or psychological level. Anyway that’s not important, I’m curious to see what the rest of the thread thinks now.

see bolded. Did he just literally say that he thought that you were spoonfed your posts by dead mafiats? this dude is flailing like I haven't seen a slot flail in a lonnnnnng ****ing time

You’re also playing from a false perspective lol... Rajam isn’t new.

Pretty big problem with your theory

as soon as I read Z25 calling rajam a noob I was waiting to see someone come it with this, literally lol'd

Right so

Right so I reread everything.

Town
Raxxel
FF

Null town
KevinM
rajam

Scum lean
Maven

Scum
Z25
pythag(mafia)

I 180’d on maven a bit on a reread, his thoughts are his own fake or not. But his push on Mac looks off to me with that flip on mind. He couldn’t know this as town of he is but I like Rajam more on a reread between everybody. His activity with content gives me more pause for what he offered.

I’m not as confident in this one as much and some flips would open me up to rethinking this. I don’t like how his reads formed and his long post day 2 makes me more uneasy.

Pythag looks more and more mafia with his reads and connections. I pointed this out earlier but the lore and Tom reads look really bad with the timing of turning on lore even more so.

Z25 can die, i’m not a fan of that slots progression of reads and reactions to pressure. Z is looking for a lynch with very little consistent from what I can see. A lot of weak reasoning with the Mac and other votes.

Would vote z, but I want content from #HBC | FrozeηFlame Maven89 Rajam

More elaboration is needed.

so this is the post that really pinged hard for me re: a possible RR/pythag team. Like he's following us on the Z25 play and obviously leaving himself open to join that wagon but seems super focused on solidifying his position as the primary anti pythag slot. I also noted his deliberate elaboration on his maven "180." Setting himself up to look like he's being shifty re: the maven slot to prime us to think that he was trying to push attention away from his partner near endgame while he lowkey is attacking his partner in pythag perhaps? Am I crazy in thinking this is a play scum!RR would make?

I'll redirect this question to you: chances of Z25 - Raxxel being the scum team?

near zero. I dont see any connection between these slots. If raxxel is WW he's playing the best fake noobtown strat I've seen executed in awhile. Z25 could be WW and frankly I hope he is given he seems like our top play pick for the day, but there's no way it's him and Raxx. I think our WW team is more likely to be Z25/Maven or Z25/RR, but as I've described above I'm really paranoid that it's actually RR/pythag. But by content in a vacuum I think pythag comes off far townier than maven

#416 up to #438: Kev not scum with Z25. #416 honestly feels like Kevin’s bulb got lit, and the way in which he accuses Z25 without explaining is a lightningrod set on purpose; Kevin truly wanted the attention on Z25 and trigger all kind of reactions. Strong disconnection imo

I think this is pretty obvious given how the slots have interacted but this is a good shortcut to some of the most solid evidence available disconnecting these slots

Not going to vote just yet, really want to hear what people think about this read I'm getting re: a possible RR/pythag pair setting up for a late endgame win via bus cred and distancing assuming RR flips first. Need to do some re-reading too to really try to parse top WW contenders because **** going into MYLO tomorrow. getting this game to worst case 4-1-1 (obviously getting lucky again and ending up 5-2 with all non killing scum dead is fantastic for us because the game reduces in complexity and town numbers are best preserved) is so much ****ing better than the other possibilities we get if both WWs are up going into night phase. We get 4-2 if we lynch 3rd scum, possibly 3-1-2 if we ML and WW kills town, or the 4-2 again if WWs take out 2/3s of the nonkill scum for us. Awful ****ing ratio that would make for awkward af endgame

catch you guys tomorrow after lunch, please direct my attention to **** you want me to address so I can try to read **** piecemeal when I have small bits of downtime during work tomorrow

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

There's a certain post which I'll mention later, but first I need to ask everyone something:

How many games have you played with Tom before this one?

Easily atleast a dozen I'd say, could be more. I've played tonnnnns of games with all the vet names in this game. what's relevant about this though?

 

[KevinM]

I’m somewhere in the dozens with Tom though it’s sort of a trick question because I carry him in my heart in every game I play. Even anti-town Tom is a beacon of hope for me.

Frozen analysis re: RR/Pythag is an interesting theory. If Z25 flipped town I’d be willing to chew it over a lot more.

My problem is that and I’m delving in like 5-6 year ago meta here but I’ve never known RR to play a budding style as scum. It’s why I’ve given more and more credence to Z25/RR

Maven if he’s WW doesn’t make sense to me, I’m more inclined like I’ve said to trust Mac that he’s the last mafia member if he’s anti-town making him lower on my priority list of slots to deal with.

Right now I think if we lynch z25 we reevaluate but more importantly RR seems to be a slot that gets solved a lot based off the flip.

Agreed on Raxxel which is why that slot has been so annoying to me.

 

[Maven89]

There's a certain post which I'll mention later, but first I need to ask everyone something:

How many games have you played with Tom before this one?

#HBC | FrozeηFlame
#HBC | Red Ryu
KevinM
Maven89
Pythag
Raxxel
Z25

Like 1 or 2? I’ve talked to him a lot though

 

[Raxxel]

I didn't even mention brin's lynch. Lynches is being used to describe your overall activity with them. And I'll give you I misremember your wording a little there.

However I wouldn't calling coming in at the end of the day with this:



and just this, is not really hesitation. If you were so against their lynch, then you could have voted elsewhere. Doesn't mean that vote has to lead to a lynch, but you didn't show much remorse in voting here. "giving in" because of popularity is a poor choice. You basically admit to just going with the crowd vote cause why not.

You also mention how lore vs mac would dominate the thread, giving off the intent you don't want to sit there and let it go on.

However, now you regret the hammer because of mac? I'm sorry but that doesn't cut it. Discussions in the thread no matter what should never get cut short. If mac's content was so good, then you would have read the thread and actually chose to not hammer. Its really that simple. Your regret no makes little sense given your post from that hammer. It makes you seem like your trying to show support for a townie who you ultimately didn't care for prior giving your wording. Also you wanted more mac content, but somehow ending the day progresses content in the right direction?

That makes zero sense. You sound like your try to backpedal now and I really dislike the vibes I'm getting from the stark contrast here.

If you only count the lynch post and not everything D2 before then, yeah, I showed no hesitation. If you see my posts where I express trust towards Lore for guiding me, asked for reasons to believe he was scum, outright defended him at one point by saying Mac's reasoning with Tom's post was irrelevant, and how I believed it was TvT, then the hesitance is a bit more obvious. Pretty sure someone close to the end of D2 even pointed out my hesitance. Your reasoning that I was against Lore just because I voted for him is insanely black and white. I said it in my lynch post, I voted for him because flipping him was productive. If scum then the benefits are obvious. If townie we would still have new info to read from.

I didn't give in because of popularity. I gave in because of inevitability. I've said it was inevitable twice now.

I've mentioned already how in general I thought the move was reckless. I apologized in my first few posts D3. I've mentioned how I skimmed and essentially misread the room.

I don't see how me getting tired of the same 1v1 from an individual means I don't care for their other content. Not to mention, you're implying I still think Lore vs. Mac would be dominant D2. Which is kinda fair since I haven't explicitly stated that it's obvious to me now that it wasn't the case, but you're still using my reasoning during my reckless move that I've stated my regret for to contradict my reasoning now.

Raxxel

Current reads list in full, one or two line reason on each player also please.

Assuming I’m wrong and Z25 flips town who would you look at tomorrow give me one name we would most likely be in Lylo

Sure lemme think real quick.

Town:
Rajam (Started off really weak the past two days, came back insanely strong D3 with statistical scumhunt analysis. Much cleaner than before.)
KevinM (Definitely not mafia, and at this point given who you're after it's hard to see you as WW. I initially saw someone who seemed determined to control the narrative, but I think you just genuinely.

 

[Raxxel]

**** hit the post button on my phone. Sorry, will complete the list.

 

[Raxxel]

Still going on town:
((Kev cont.) I think you just genuinely want to push for strong scumhunt conversation even if you happen to be a bit imposing in it at times.)

Null-town:
#HBC | FrozeηFlame (Kinda been inactive D1 and D2, but has come with a pretty strong D3. Is at least part of the conversation.)
Pythag (Unfortunately have little to say on him. Has been a part of the conversation. Pretty sure he was at odds with Lore so his case is helped.)

WW:
#HBC | Red Ryu (Has been noncommittal all game and was at odds with a mafia and a townie leading up to their deaths. Mac was pushing the hardest for his lynching and he's dead now. Also my man compared my content to Brindor's, that's just dishonest.)
Z25 (The OMGUS doesn't help his case. His D3 of tunneling me just feels like an attempt to get attention off of him.)

Mafia:
Maven89 (Gives off to Tom vibes of laying low and not contributing much as a whole.)

If Z25 flips town, I think RR would be the safest lynch for us.

 

[Z25]

Still going on town:
((Kev cont.) I think you just genuinely want to push for strong scumhunt conversation even if you happen to be a bit imposing in it at times.)

Null-town:
#HBC | FrozeηFlame (Kinda been inactive D1 and D2, but has come with a pretty strong D3. Is at least part of the conversation.)
Pythag (Unfortunately have little to say on him. Has been a part of the conversation. Pretty sure he was at odds with Lore so his case is helped.)

WW:
#HBC | Red Ryu (Has been noncommittal all game and was at odds with a mafia and a townie leading up to their deaths. Mac was pushing the hardest for his lynching and he's dead now. Also my man compared my content to Brindor's, that's just dishonest.)
Z25 (The OMGUS doesn't help his case. His D3 of tunneling me just feels like an attempt to get attention off of him.)

Mafia:
Maven89 (Gives off to Tom vibes of laying low and not contributing much as a whole.)

If Z25 flips town, I think RR would be the safest lynch for us.

You can say that but I honestly don’t care if I go. I’m bored off every game for the same **** at this point. A games a game, the outcome isn’t important

 

[Raxxel]

UtopianPoyzin Vote count?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I cannot remember if I have ever played with Tom before.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Still going on town:
((Kev cont.) I think you just genuinely want to push for strong scumhunt conversation even if you happen to be a bit imposing in it at times.)

Null-town:
#HBC | FrozeηFlame (Kinda been inactive D1 and D2, but has come with a pretty strong D3. Is at least part of the conversation.)
Pythag (Unfortunately have little to say on him. Has been a part of the conversation. Pretty sure he was at odds with Lore so his case is helped.)

WW:
#HBC | Red Ryu (Has been noncommittal all game and was at odds with a mafia and a townie leading up to their deaths. Mac was pushing the hardest for his lynching and he's dead now. Also my man compared my content to Brindor's, that's just dishonest.)
Z25 (The OMGUS doesn't help his case. His D3 of tunneling me just feels like an attempt to get attention off of him.)

Mafia:
Maven89 (Gives off to Tom vibes of laying low and not contributing much as a whole.)

If Z25 flips town, I think RR would be the safest lynch for us.

Umm what? I compared the situations because it makes Pythag very much being selective and pot calling kettle black.

He calls my actions scummy but then does the exact same thing.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Also I was a mafia and town therefore it looks bad? What?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Sorry guys got ****ing slammed at work these past two days which has kept me stuck late at the office which made me fall behind my leveling group for classsic which meant playing late to try to keep pace which meant little to no sleep.... you get the idea. standard RL johns but I'm gonna do my best to check in by phone during work tomorrow afternoon as my morning is literally booked solid with court settings but my afternoon is much more chill. This is a pivotal day phase and Im not about to ****ing drop the ball and not show up

really liked this question, shows maven is actually paying attention to principal consistency re: what slots are arguing and looking for arbitrary exceptions to distinguish slots that aren't quite so distinguishable. this is how you find people acting on hidden agendas, town points here imo
this is an excellent post, glad to see Kevmo stepping up solid analysis like this especially considering the huge ****ing towniness vacuum that's been left as a result of mac eating a bullet

like these are all on point takes. Mac death took out the lode stone of our HBC which is frustrating as **** even if it was a pretty obvious play given how many slots townread mac. Raxxel vote was absolute trash timing wise, but obviously not target wise. Agreed that raxxel in endgame will be a ****in nightmare for town. Z25 looks worse by the post, like page 17 is one giant red ****ing flag

RR-Z25 pair for WWs seems very plausible but Im also getting badddddd ****in vibes from RRs treatment of pythag recently. more on that later

I get the concern re: possibility of Raxx being WW but tbh I think those odds are astronomically low. if he's not noobtown he's the lingering scummate of lore and tom and they just deliberately ignored him all game for distancing purposes

MYLO analysis is just straight up on point, nothing else to add

obviously im a bit biased here but this scum list, assuming its ranked in descending order from most scummy down to least which I think is clear from context in the post, is a refreshingly solid assessment of this game state. I'd swap raxxel and maven probably, but that's a pretty minor difference. The thing that worries me though is the potential for an RR/pythag WW team, again which I'll go into more detail later, but essentially I think RR is all of a sudden trying to distance pythag because he's afraid of being in the lynchpool today and wants pythag to be disassociated with him when he (RR) flips WW. If I were pythags WW partner tbh I'd probably be doing the same thing because I think pythag's slot has kind of been a strong endgame contender all game. Not par excellence like Mac, but contributing enough to be townread with some confidence. But of course if people are townreading pythag because he's playing a great scum game, then of COURSE RR, the more commonly scumread partner, would go out of his way to set himself up for a bus by pythag by forcing them to 1v1. Does that make sense to anyone else?

re: first bullet point a "confusing" town lean is still lower on my priority list for plays than my scumleans. That's why I was questioning RR for pushing a pythag lynch over other slots that I thought were far more sensible candidates. Thanks for linking me back to that post though because the post I was quoting from RR only makes me more wary that there may be a low key distancing effort going on between these slots that RR has now kicked into high gear at a pivotal phase

second bullet point I'm not even sure what you're asking? like are you asking if I found any endgame resolution rules that changed my assessment of how we should prioritize focus on pursuing WWs vs. non-killing scum? Because if you are the answer is no, and after double checking the rules as laid out in this thread my assumptions about how endgame would be resolved lined up exactly with how the rules are written here

re: Z25 def a top play for me today. Everything about his content on page 17 reeks. I mean look at this ****:

see bolded. Did he just literally say that he thought that you were spoonfed your posts by dead mafiats? this dude is flailing like I haven't seen a slot flail in a lonnnnnng ****ing time

as soon as I read Z25 calling rajam a noob I was waiting to see someone come it with this, literally lol'd

so this is the post that really pinged hard for me re: a possible RR/pythag team. Like he's following us on the Z25 play and obviously leaving himself open to join that wagon but seems super focused on solidifying his position as the primary anti pythag slot. I also noted his deliberate elaboration on his maven "180." Setting himself up to look like he's being shifty re: the maven slot to prime us to think that he was trying to push attention away from his partner near endgame while he lowkey is attacking his partner in pythag perhaps? Am I crazy in thinking this is a play scum!RR would make?

near zero. I dont see any connection between these slots. If raxxel is WW he's playing the best fake noobtown strat I've seen executed in awhile. Z25 could be WW and frankly I hope he is given he seems like our top play pick for the day, but there's no way it's him and Raxx. I think our WW team is more likely to be Z25/Maven or Z25/RR, but as I've described above I'm really paranoid that it's actually RR/pythag. But by content in a vacuum I think pythag comes off far townier than maven

I think this is pretty obvious given how the slots have interacted but this is a good shortcut to some of the most solid evidence available disconnecting these slots

Not going to vote just yet, really want to hear what people think about this read I'm getting re: a possible RR/pythag pair setting up for a late endgame win via bus cred and distancing assuming RR flips first. Need to do some re-reading too to really try to parse top WW contenders because **** going into MYLO tomorrow. getting this game to worst case 4-1-1 (obviously getting lucky again and ending up 5-2 with all non killing scum dead is fantastic for us because the game reduces in complexity and town numbers are best preserved) is so much ****ing better than the other possibilities we get if both WWs are up going into night phase. We get 4-2 if we lynch 3rd scum, possibly 3-1-2 if we ML and WW kills town, or the 4-2 again if WWs take out 2/3s of the nonkill scum for us. Awful ****ing ratio that would make for awkward af endgame

catch you guys tomorrow after lunch, please direct my attention to **** you want me to address so I can try to read **** piecemeal when I have small bits of downtime during work tomorrow

I’m kicking into overdrive to get people to read me better. (I’m town please listen pretty please!)

KevMo is right with my meta though. I bus my mates into the ground and play as independent as I can. That Bingo mafia a while back is a perfect example. I went hard on my partners and tried to get them lynched as soon as day 1 to clear myself until we won in late game. Feeds your paranoia but this is on point for me.

My flip on Maven was due to my reread, trying to figure out who I disliked more of the cast. I did dislike Rajam but a lot of it is more atypical. My issue with Maven at times is that he gives just enough but nothing more than the minimum I expect.

He is giving original thoughts, i’ll give him that where he is not following the crowd.

You got paranoia but reading into me and Pythag. Leave that at the door and shut it out.

 

[KevinM]

RR, as it stands I don’t see us lynching python today, in case inactives don’t move can you park your vote on Z25. Remember in this case majority lynches so its way easier to “accidentally” force a mislynch in the 11th hour scramble if we get to it

 

[KevinM]

Pythag not python EBWOP

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Vote: z25

I don’t see much changing right now and talking has died.

Why not.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

L-1 btw let’s see if people want to chat a bit but i’ll be busy on the weekend.