Let me say a few things.
First of all, evolution has nothing to do with the fine-tuned universe argument. It only has to do with the changes in the genomes of organisms from the results of mutation and natural selection. Whether our existence is probable or not, has almost nothing to do with it.
Second of all, Hawking doesn't actually know the probability of the universe being the way it is. And why is the improbability of our existence relevant, as Hawking says it is, but not his explanation for our existence? It seems you're quote-mining here.
And this whole fine-tuned universe argument seems a little fallacious. The argument, as I see it, is: it's unlikely that something occurred, so it couldn't have occurred without divine intervention. It just seem very weak. It should be no surprise that the universe is welcoming to life. We exist for goodness sake, so the laws of physics
must act in such a way to allow our existence. There is no divine intervention required. It looks improbable, it is, but that doesn't mean it's impossible. It's like winning a lottery.
I don't believe our existence is actually that improbable either. The universe is extremely large, and it's existed 13.75 Billion years IIRC. If the laws of physics can accommodate life, there must be countless planets for which life may be able to occur on.
I'm going to roughly calculate the number of advanced civilisations in the observable universe. The actual universe is far larger. This calculation is based of the
drake equation, except I've applied it to the whole of the observable universe.
A galaxy has at least a few billion stars ranging to a few Trillion. So let's say around 100 Billion on average. There are 170 Billion Galaxies in the observable universe. So, there are around 1.7x10^22 stars in the observable universe. Let's say around half of them have planets So, around 8.5x10^21 stars have planets. Let's say that half of all stars live long enough to support life. So we have 4.25x10^21 stars with planets that are suitable for life to evolve on. Let's say there are 5 planets on average, for stars that have planets. So there are 2.13x10^22 planets in the known universe. Let's say on average there 1/5 planets exist in the zone around the star where life may arise. So, 4.26x10^22 planets are suitable for life. Now let's say that the chance of life arising on a suitable planet is 1/10^3 or 1/1000. So that leaves us 4.26x10^19 planets with life on them. Let's say only half of the time, life develops into a civilisation, which leaves us, 2.13x10^19 civilisations that have or do exist in the observable universe.
2.13x10^19, using
conservative numbers.
So I don't believe that life, or even intelligent life is particularly improbable in our universe.