How can we predict reveals?

[Wario Bros.]

April is going to get a load of GBA games. It's the perfect opportunity to reveal veterans with no new games coming out. We should keep an eye on those.

Assuming we're going for Japanese releases, here's the list:

April 3
Advance Wars 1+2 (US/Europe getting Advance Wars 1 April 3. No word on Advance Wars 2: Black Hole Rising for US/Europe)
Kirby & The Amazing Mirror (US/Europe getting it April 10)
WarioWare, Inc.: Mega Microgame$! (US/Europe getting it April 10)
F-ZERO: Maximum Velocity (US/Europe getting it April 17)
Yoshi's Island: Super Mario Advance 3 (US/Europe getting it April 24)
Golden Sun (US/Europe getting it April 17)

April 30
Kirby: Nightmare in Dream Land (No word for US/Europe)
Metroid Fusion (US/Europe getting it April 3)
Wario Land 4 (No word for US/Europe)
Mario Tennis: Power Tour (No word for US/Europe)
Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga (US/Europe getting it April 3)
The Legend of Zelda: The Minish Cap (No word for US/Europe)

GBA Games Currently Exclusive to Nintendo 3DS Ambassadors
Mario vs. Donkey Kong
Mario Kart: Super Circuit
Fire Emblem: The Sacred Stones

 

[UltimateWario]

April Fool's Pic of the Day

"Sorry about no reveals last month. To apologize, I just wanted to let you know that we're done with the game. It releases tomorrow. Enjoy figuring out the other half of the roster!"

-Sakurai drops the mic, world peace ensues-

 

[False Sense]

April Fool's Pic of the Day

"Sorry about no reveals last month. To apologize, I just wanted to let you know that we're done with the game. It releases tomorrow. Enjoy figuring out the other half of the roster!"

-Sakurai drops the mic, world peace ensues-

You think such a statement would bring world peace?

The world would go mad within the day.

 

[UltimateWario]

You think such a statement would bring world peace?

The world would go mad within the day.

When everyone is dead, there will be peace.

 

[False Sense]

When everyone is dead, there will be peace.

That sounds like a dystopia novel in the making.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

The hype train will be epic once there is a Direct announcement. I think we'll get one sooner or later.

A vet would be nice too.

 

[UltimateWario]

I can't wait for another Direct announcement, so that we can get tons of people yelling "IT'S GONNA BE DIXIE PALUTENA!" only for us to get someone completely different.

 

[False Sense]

The hype train will be epic once there is a Direct announcement. I think we'll get one sooner or later.

A vet would be nice too.

On the subject of a Direct, when do we think we're likely to get one? Is there any indication of when in April we'll get it? I suppose there's not much of a way of knowing, but any ideas would be nice to have.

 

[UltimateWario]

When was Mac's Direct? Early March? How consistent are Directs with one another?

Also, will this one suck as much as the last one? Besides Mac, the last direct was a borefest.

 

[Deleted member]

When was Mac's Direct? Early March? How consistent are Directs with one another?

Little Mac's Direct was on February 13, 2014. The Direct before that was in December where we got Rosalina... before that there was Sonic in October and before that there was Luigi in August...
Worldwide Directs are usually once every two months with the occasional regional Directs sprinkled in between.
I think that there will be a Direct in April.

 

[UltimateWario]

Silly me, thinking it was in March. Especially after everyone being upset that there weren't any reveals.

Okay, so yeah. The 13th? How about the one in December? What day was that on?

 

[Deleted member]

Okay, so yeah. The 13th? How about the one in December? What day was that on?

December 18, 2013 was the Rosalina reveal.
October 1, 2013 was the Sonic reveal.
August 7, 2013 was the Luigi reveal.

The dates held are random, but the months are consistent.

 

[UltimateWario]

Gotcha. Thanks.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Chances are we at least get a Newcomer this month, and as far as we know it's a day to day wait for an announcement. This is why I'm freaking pumped.

I still feel like there is a reason why we didn't get a character, but that's impossible to tell right now. It'd be nice to get a veteran beforehand though...

Not to get anybody hyped, but I work at 6am tomorrow. The last two times I worked that early, I woke up to Toon Link and Peach. Get hyped

 

[Kon]

Assuming we're going for Japanese releases, here's the list:

April 3
Advance Wars 1+2 (US/Europe getting Advance Wars 1 April 3. No word on Advance Wars 2: Black Hole Rising for US/Europe)
Kirby & The Amazing Mirror (US/Europe getting it April 10)
WarioWare, Inc.: Mega Microgame$! (US/Europe getting it April 10)
F-ZERO: Maximum Velocity (US/Europe getting it April 17)
Yoshi's Island: Super Mario Advance 3 (US/Europe getting it April 24)
Golden Sun (US/Europe getting it April 17)

April 30
Kirby: Nightmare in Dream Land (No word for US/Europe)
Metroid Fusion (US/Europe getting it April 3)
Wario Land 4 (No word for US/Europe)
Mario Tennis: Power Tour (No word for US/Europe)
Mario & Luigi: Superstar Saga (US/Europe getting it April 3)
The Legend of Zelda: The Minish Cap (No word for US/Europe)

GBA Games Currently Exclusive to Nintendo 3DS Ambassadors
Mario vs. Donkey Kong
Mario Kart: Super Circuit
Fire Emblem: The Sacred Stones

Thx for the list.

Taking a look at this list: Captain Falcon, Isaac and Andy are the only characters who have no other games to promote. However Isaac and Andy as newcomers would likely be revealed in a Direct if they were in the game. Leaves it all to Captain Falcon for an early April reveal.(if no Direct were to be announced in this week)
An other potential reveal could be Meta Knight because of Kirby&the Amazing Mirror or Kirby: Nightmare in Dream Land as in Japan there is no other opportunity to promote another Kirby game. Kirby Triple Deluxe already been released in Japan and considering the fact most veterans were confirmed for japanese release, we should keep Meta Knight in mind.

Wario has two GBA games in the list too, however I would keep in mind he could easily be revealed for Mario Kart 8 release.(I could imagine Sakurai making a picture of Wario on his bike for that day)

And while Metroid Fusion is the only game of the series being released (again) this year, I don't think we will see Zero Suit Samus confirmed because of that one.

So maybe we get in early April Captain Falcon confirmed, in late April Meta Knight and somewhere in the middle the Direct with a newcomer
Just kidding, I wouldn't expect 3 reveals especially not after a month without any character being revealed/confirmed.

 

[Snagrio]

Hmm, I'm beginning to wonder if the next character we'll (finally) get is a newcomer.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Hmm, I'm beginning to wonder if the next character we'll (finally) get is a newcomer.

 

[egaddmario]

Hmm, I'm beginning to wonder if the next character we'll (finally) get is a newcomer.

I think that's as good a bet as any. That or starting April 3rd, we'll start getting some people to advertise GBA games on Wii U, like Capt. Falcon or Wario.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

I could see us getting a flurry of Yoshi, Isaac, Captain Falcon, Andy, Wario and maybe Meta Knight to advertise the gba games being released this month. It would explain the absence of any characters at all in March. I'm not saying it's likely, but I could imagine it at least.

Would they have announced the direct by now if it was happening tomorrow?

 

[Kon]

I could see us getting a flurry of Yoshi, Isaac, Captain Falcon, Andy, Wario and maybe Meta Knight to advertise the gba games being released this month. It would explain the absence of any characters at all in March. I'm not saying it's likely, but I could imagine it at least.

Would they have announced the direct by now if it was happening tomorrow?

I would throw Wario and Yoshi out of the list.

I expect somehow Wario being confirmed on his bike for Mario Kart 8. Wouldn't that fit perfectly to promote Mario Kart 8? ^^

And Yoshi will promote Yoshi's New Island(japanese release) or Yarn Yoshi for sure. It would be stupid to reveal Yoshi without linking him to one of the two games which will be released this year.

Also, Andy and Isaac would be revealed in a Direct, so one of both would have a small chance to get revealed this month in the Direct.

The more we think about this, I expect Captain Falcon being revealed this month isn't that unlikely. I'll just go with him this month. He's already half-confirmed, after all no big surprise as a character, and if Sakurai were not to keep him for a random reveal, I could see how he reveals Captain Falcon this month, probably early April. If not linked to the GBA Virtual Console, I'll still expect him as a random reveal.

Maybe we should also already try to find out who this month's newcomer could be. Any suggestions? Andy and Isaac were already mentionned and I think there was also someone going for Chrom or Palutena.

 

[AncientTobacco]

Maybe we should also already try to find out who this month's newcomer could be. Any suggestions? Andy and Isaac were already mentionned and I think there was also someone going for Chrom or Palutena.

Takamaru. I've bet on that since the middle of February.

The anniversary of Nazo no Murasame Jo is in this month (14th to be exact). Little Mac was also revealed on his anniversary and there would be a nice West vs. East contrast with Takamaru.

 

[Glaciacott]

Ok, so my theories.

- We could be getting veterans during any of the released for the GBA VC (For example, if we get a vet tomorrow, based on a Metroid Fusion VC release I'd wager ZSS; If next week, we could get Wario or Meta Knight ... if they push it further, then Captain Falcon. Further than that, Yoshi)
- If no vet happens, the possibility of a Nintendo Direct remains on the table for Friday, since these VC games are released on Thursdays. So if by the 3rd or 10th we get a NIntendo Direct announcement, then I'd expect newcomer on the 4th or 11th.

If nothing has happened by the 11th, then I'm going to assume Nintendo Direct needs to happen the following weeks. Ideally, it's not delayed too much.

MY BEST CASE SCENARIO: We got Rosalina, then Zelda a week later. Then Little Mac, with Diddy a week later. My best case scenario is newcomer Friday, the 4th or 11th or 18th (Palutena?) and Wario/Captain Falcon/Yoshi a week later.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Two Wario VCs? If anyone's getting in because of this, it's easily him now.
So yeah, Wario for April.

 

[Aurora Jenny]

Do you think we could have another Rosalina situation on our hands? I mean, what is Sakurai is holding on to something until after a big reveal in Mario Kart 8 or any other big titles set to come out before Smash? I think maybe we should see what comes of this GameXplain coverage of MK8.

 

[Groose]

We're going to get Zero Suit Samus tomorrow. You heard it here first.

In all seriousness, though, I expect a character reveal in the next two days or a wait until the next Direct (next week or the week after?).

 

[Wario Bros.]

Looking at Brawl's prerelease character reveals, excluding the time between the reveal trailer & Fox reveal (6 months), the longest we had to wait for a character reveal was 76 days (between King Dedede & Olimar). I just thought this information would be useful on how long a drought we could be in.

 

[Staarih]

Well seeing as we didn't get a Direct today and I doubt we'll get one tomorrow or even next week because of the separate Mario Kart 8 info, I think the Direct will be saved for closer to the end of the month, which could make a random veteran reveal possible in the near days, maybe even tomorrow. Here's hoping for something sooner than later!

 

[ToothiestAura]

Well seeing as we didn't get a Direct today and I doubt we'll get one tomorrow or even next week because of the separate Mario Kart 8 info, I think the Direct will be saved for closer to the end of the month, which could make a random veteran reveal possible in the near days, maybe even tomorrow. Here's hoping for something sooner than later!

The separate Mario Kart info did not come from an official Nintendo source. It was game website reviews. It doesn't affect the likelihood of a direct at all.

 

[Snagrio]

Unless there's a late announcement for a Direct like last time for tomorrow, then we'll be waiting until next week (or later) for a newcomer. Maybe a veteran will show up tomorrow though.

 

[Staarih]

The separate Mario Kart info did not come from an official Nintendo source. It was game website reviews. It doesn't affect the likelihood of a direct at all.

Ohh. Well there was an official Nintendo trailer of MK8 uploaded as well which includes the new stuff: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYBz6HWBw3A
...so I figured that would have been Direct-worthy but apparently not.

I don't know. We'll definitely get a Direct this month, and I'm still rooting for the end of the month. Hoping for a random veteran reveal before that (like tomorrow plz!).

 

[UltimateWario]

They seriously brought Metal Mario back? Ugh. Why.

So how long do you guys think it'll be until we get our first April reveal?

 

[Deleted member]

They seriously brought Metal Mario back? Ugh. Why.

So how long do you guys think it'll be until we get our first April reveal?

It could be worse... they could bring back Queen Bee. Ugh...

I don't think that we will have to wait for long. We might get a Nintendo Direct this month and if we do, I bet that we will get some reveal. I don't think that one will be too far off, but I wouldn't give the GBA VC games a ton of credit in regards to revealing someone.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I don't doubt a Direct this month, but I'm not really sure whether I should get excited for a possible character reveal.

I'd like to see one tomorrow. But I don't want to get myself excited.

 

[SpindaMaster]

It could be worse... they could bring back Queen Bee. Ugh...

I don't think that we will have to wait for long. We might get a Nintendo Direct this month and if we do, I bet that we will get some reveal. I don't think that one will be too far off, but I wouldn't give the GBA VC games a ton of credit in regards to revealing someone.

I fail to see how that's worse.

I think we'll get Captain Rainbow next. Just 'cause, I guess.

 

[Glaciacott]

The unpredictable master did it again. Unexpected Hype GET!​

 

[FalKoopa]

Yeah. The drought suddenly turned into a flood.

I'll have a hard time sleeping for the next few days.

 

[Snagrio]

Yeah. The drought suddenly turned into a flood.

I'll have a hard time sleeping for the next few days.

You and the rest of this site.

 

[Starcutter]

So who's it going to be?

Ridley?

K Rool?

Layton?

Just a buttload of veterans?


Either way, HYPE

 

[False Sense]

So who's it going to be?

Ridley?

K Rool?

Layton?

Just a buttload of veterans?


Either way, HYPE

There's bound to be something big, the way I see it. In the last two Directs, we got one brand new character each time. Keep in mind, newcomers are probably the biggest things they can reveal about the game, and those newcomers were just casually revealed in random Directs. Now, we have news of a Direct, several days before its debut, that seems to be almost entirely dedicated to Smash. I think we're pretty much guaranteed an obligatory newcomer, and quite possibly one more. I might even say we could see several newcomers, but I'll keep my expectations down to two at best. Aside from that, this would be an excellent time to reveal some of those random veterans they didn't reveal last month or don't have a game release in the near future. Apart from characters, I think it would be very likely that we'll see some explanation of game features, perhaps a new Stage Builder, probably some new stages (especially for newcomers), and quite possibly a release date.

 

[Banjodorf]

My only question is: why potentially a flood *now* rather than at E3?

Are we really going to get two huge Smash reveals in a two month gap?