How can we predict reveals?

[Scoliosis Jones]

So excited right now.

I hope Snake gets revealed, i'm expecting at least two newcomers and possibly a few vets (hopefully Ike is in there).

Hype is in MAXIMUM OVERDRIVE!

 

[ToothiestAura]

Game specific direct? Hell yeah.

I'm expecting a new character, a veteran, some info on "customization" and/or the "individual systems," a release date and maybe even a developer direct.

Also hoping against hope for an eShop demo.

 

[egaddmario]

My only question is: why potentially a flood *now* rather than at E3?

Are we really going to get two huge Smash reveals in a two month gap?

That was my question too. Seems odd we'd get a Direct now and another at E3. I was expecting a Smash Direct but after E3, and closer to release. But maybe release is closer than we all expect!? THE HYPE IS REAL. LITERALLY ANYTHING SAKURAI REVEALS WILL BE AMAZING EVEN IF IT'S NOTHING.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm not going to hype myself for this Direct.
I'm hoping for Shulk, but I doubt he will get confirmed.
I am just going to keep my expectations low by expecting the worst yet hope for the best. If anything, I'll be satisfied with veteran reveals like Wario, Meta Knight, Captain Falcon, and Yoshi. Other than that... I just won't expect too much to save myself from disappointment.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

We're without a doubt getting a newcomer. That much, I believe is certain.

There are several different things that can come from this Direct. We could get Snake, some veterans, possibly more than one Newcomer...

I expect Sakurai to be the MC of the Direct, and he will talk about the newcomers we've seen, being Rosalina and Mac. I wouldn't doubt the newcomer showcased there as well...I wouldn't doubt the customization included either.

A release date is very possible, as that would shoot hype through the roof. Especially if it's earlier than many expect. If it's during the summer, I will flat out **** myself.

I have my hopes high, but that's because literally anything will probably satisfy my hunger for awesome information. Get hyped guys. This is big!

 

[Snagrio]

My, how contradicting the last two posts are.

 

[Kon]

I won't write all my predictions for the Smash Direct in this thread. I'll reduce my list to the character-specific ones.

A Smash Direct at this point could mean an earlier release. What's the matter with an earlier release? Well, we have still many veterans who need to be confirmed and maybe because the release is much closer, there is not enough time anymore to show every character in the rythm they did until now. I imagine we get a bunch of veterans(around 3-4) and more than 1 newcomer. Why? Well, a Direct is an opportunity for a character reveal, recently it was meant to be the opportunity for newcomer reveals. As time is running by and there may be more newcomer to show than it would be possible in the 2 month rythm. What if Nintendo were trying to release either the 3DS or the WiiU version already in summer 2014. There would only be the time for 2 more newcomers or maybe 4(if we were to expect 3 newcomers at E3). Until now we have seen already 5 newcomer(Villager, Mega Man, Wii Fit trainer, Rosalina, Little Mac) and I wouldn't expect less than 10 newcomers at last. So maybe we get 2 newcomers this time, 3 for E3 and maybe another one shortly before the release.

Also: How many veterans from Brawl are still missing?
Let's see:
SSB64 veterans:
Yoshi, Ness, Jigglypuff, Captain Falcon

Melee veterans:
Ice Climbers, Sheik, Mr.Game&Watch, Ganondorf, Falco, (Mewtwo as a special Melee veteran case)

Brawl veterans:
R.O.B., Lucas, Wolf, Meta Knight, Wario, Zero Suit Samus, (Pokémon Trainer not considered safe for the moment), (Ike may return, may not return), (Snake as 3rd party is a special case too)

I would see the SSB64 and Melee veterans as almost safe(9 without Mewtwo, 10 with Mewtwo). The Brawl characters are more difficult to put into categories. There are still 9 Brawl characters missing in SSB4 and in my opinion there are around 6 of them I consider likely to return and 3 I consider more on the edge. We could discuss the point if Lucas or Wolf were that likely to return or to be cut, but this here is just my opinion.
We have 19 characters still missing. If Sakurai were to reveal 2 per month, this would mean we still need more than 9 months for all veterans to be confirmed. This however would in the same time mean the game would be released in December 2014, maybe late December, and (!) there were no newcomer left to be revealed(except if Sakurai were to make the newcomer reveals as an addition to the 2 characters per month).
If the release were to be earlier like in the summer this year, let's see again. There would be 5 months left for character reveals. So even 3 characters per month would mean many cuts or many hidden characters which were to be revealed after the release of the game. However this seems a bit... I don't know. I expect Sakurai to reveal the full roster before the release as we already know the whole Super Mario characters before the release which is a bit strange.
There are now two good opportunities for multiple character reveals: the Smash Direct(would be perfect if he were to show 8 veterans at once and 1-2 newcomers) and the E3(similar to the Smash Direct: 8 veterans + 3 newcomer). If this were the case, we would have only 3 veterans left and a summer release would in that case be possible.

Of course it is more some sort of a wish we get to see many veterans in the Smash Direct, but hey, it's still not impossible. Maybe less than 8 veterans, but still would be great.

I think we won't have to worry about at least one newcomer reveal in the Smash Direct. However given this special opportunity, I'll expect 2 and maybe will have to see that I was way too optimistic.

Anyways. The veterans we may see, are almost necessary characters who can't promote anything this year anymore. As most of you will notice, there aren't that many characters who could promote something in the near future. Only Yoshi and Wario seem to be excluded for this one and perhaps Meta Knight if Sakurai were to promote Kirby Triple Deluxe in the West too. Perhaps Sheik or Ganondorf could be revealed for Hyrule Warriors release. The other one could however be randomly revealed.

So my predictions for confirmed veterans:
Sheik, Zero Suit Samus, Captain Falcon, Ness, Falco, R.O.B., Ice Climbers and Mr.Game&Watch.

Next is the question which newcomer will we see.
Chrom, Palutena and Dixie are three characters I would keep in mind. However as this is a Smash Direct this time around, I could also see Sakurai reveal one of the very big newcomers such as King K.Rool or Ridley.
I'll predict the following two newcomers:
Chrom and King K.Rool

After all this is what I'm predicting. I'm sure this won't end up being an 100% true prediction but yet I feel like it's still to some extend possible.

 

[Morbi]

I won't write all my predictions for the Smash Direct in this thread. I'll reduce my list to the character-specific ones.

A Smash Direct at this point could mean an earlier release. What's the matter with an earlier release? Well, we have still many veterans who need to be confirmed and maybe because the release is much closer, there is not enough time anymore to show every character in the rythm they did until now. I imagine we get a bunch of veterans(around 3-4) and more than 1 newcomer. Why? Well, a Direct is an opportunity for a character reveal, recently it was meant to be the opportunity for newcomer reveals. As time is running by and there may be more newcomer to show than it would be possible in the 2 month rythm. What if Nintendo were trying to release either the 3DS or the WiiU version already in summer 2014. There would only be the time for 2 more newcomers or maybe 4(if we were to expect 3 newcomers at E3). Until now we have seen already 5 newcomer(Villager, Mega Man, Wii Fit trainer, Rosalina, Little Mac) and I wouldn't expect less than 10 newcomers at last. So maybe we get 2 newcomers this time, 3 for E3 and maybe another one shortly before the release.

Also: How many veterans from Brawl are still missing?
Let's see:
SSB64 veterans:
Yoshi, Ness, Jigglypuff, Captain Falcon

Melee veterans:
Ice Climbers, Sheik, Mr.Game&Watch, Ganondorf, Falco, (Mewtwo as a special Melee veteran case)

Brawl veterans:
R.O.B., Lucas, Wolf, Meta Knight, Wario, Zero Suit Samus, (Pokémon Trainer not considered safe for the moment), (Ike may return, may not return), (Snake as 3rd party is a special case too)

I would see the SSB64 and Melee veterans as almost safe(9 without Mewtwo, 10 with Mewtwo). The Brawl characters are more difficult to put into categories. There are still 9 Brawl characters missing in SSB4 and in my opinion there are around 6 of them I consider likely to return and 3 I consider more on the edge. We could discuss the point if Lucas or Wolf were that likely to return or to be cut, but this here is just my opinion.
We have 19 characters still missing. If Sakurai were to reveal 2 per month, this would mean we still need more than 9 months for all veterans to be confirmed. This however would in the same time mean the game would be released in December 2014, maybe late December, and (!) there were no newcomer left to be revealed(except if Sakurai were to make the newcomer reveals as an addition to the 2 characters per month).
If the release were to be earlier like in the summer this year, let's see again. There would be 5 months left for character reveals. So even 3 characters per month would mean many cuts or many hidden characters which were to be revealed after the release of the game. However this seems a bit... I don't know. I expect Sakurai to reveal the full roster before the release as we already know the whole Super Mario characters before the release which is a bit strange.
There are now two good opportunities for multiple character reveals: the Smash Direct(would be perfect if he were to show 8 veterans at once and 1-2 newcomers) and the E3(similar to the Smash Direct: 8 veterans + 3 newcomer). If this were the case, we would have only 3 veterans left and a summer release would in that case be possible.

Of course it is more some sort of a wish we get to see many veterans in the Smash Direct, but hey, it's still not impossible. Maybe less than 8 veterans, but still would be great.

I think we won't have to worry about at least one newcomer reveal in the Smash Direct. However given this special opportunity, I'll expect 2 and maybe will have to see that I was way too optimistic.

Anyways. The veterans we may see, are almost necessary characters who can't promote anything this year anymore. As most of you will notice, there aren't that many characters who could promote something in the near future. Only Yoshi and Wario seem to be excluded for this one and perhaps Meta Knight if Sakurai were to promote Kirby Triple Deluxe in the West too. Perhaps Sheik or Ganondorf could be revealed for Hyrule Warriors release. The other one could however be randomly revealed.

So my predictions for confirmed veterans:
Sheik, Zero Suit Samus, Captain Falcon, Ness, Falco, R.O.B., Ice Climbers and Mr.Game&Watch.

Next is the question which newcomer will we see.
Chrom, Palutena and Dixie are three characters I would keep in mind. However as this is a Smash Direct this time around, I could also see Sakurai reveal one of the very big newcomers such as King K.Rool or Ridley.
I'll predict the following two newcomers:
Chrom and King K.Rool

After all this is what I'm predicting. I'm sure this won't end up being an 100% true prediction but yet I feel like it's still to some extend possible.

I don't believe that there is anything inherently wrong about an earlier release; least of all the arbitrary claim that we need a certain amount of veterans prior to release.

I have no idea which character to predict, I am slightly out of practice.

 

[BluePikmin11]

You better keep a sharp eye on who tweets about the Smash Direct.

 

[Deleted member]

You better keep a sharp eye on who tweets about the Smash Direct.

If Monolith Tweets about it a day before or whatever, I will flip out.

EDIT: Someone from Monolith Tweeted on Saturday. Come on, Shulk!

 

[Banjodorf]

If Monolith Tweets about it a day before or whatever, I will flip out.

You and me both brother.

Trying to expect Miis to keep my hype at a minimum, but a sudden appearance of a certain Monado-wielding dude would send me through the roof.

 

[ToothiestAura]

earlier release

A Smash Direct at this point could mean an earlier release.

Why do people keep saying this? It can't be an earlier release because we have no date. All we have been told is 2014.

This was probably always the plan: have a Smash Direct to show the release date and some other game stuff for hype.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

If Monolith Tweets about it a day before or whatever, I will flip out.

If either Camelot or Monolith tweet about the direct I'm going to need someone who knows CPR.

I think people taking this as indication of an earlier release are getting a bit carried away, taking it for more than what it is.

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

If Monolith Tweets about it a day before or whatever, I will flip out.

If Platinum tweeted today, then we should be wary of Wonder Red or Bayonetta. Then again, that would be too impossible.

 

[Freduardo]

What happens if Retro or Level 5 tweets? Or have they both done too many Nintendo franchises for us to be able to tell?

 

[Arcanir]

If Platinum tweeted today, then we should be wary of Wonder Red or Bayonetta. Then again, that would be too impossible.

They didn't, there's nothing about it on Kamiya's twitter. That seems to be misinformation that just spread with the hype.

 

[Deleted member]

What happens if Retro or Level 5 tweets? Or have they both done too many Nintendo franchises for us to be able to tell?

If Retro tweets, we might get something from Metroid or Donkey Kong. I would lean more towards Donkey Kong due to their recent activity with the series.
If Level-5 tweets, it would obviously be Professor Layton. Looking at what else they've done, Layton has more star power and is more demanded than their other work.

 

[Forcerounds]

Considering that the Smash Direct is going live in the Americas in the Afternoon/Evening, I think it's a safe bet that the newcomer that will probably be revealed will be one that's particularly popular in the West. I base this claim off of the fact that Little Mac, a character few Japanese Smash fans care about, was revealed in a Nintendo Direct that aired during a convenient afternoon/evening time slot in the Americas.

 

[Banjodorf]

Considering that the Smash Direct is going live in the Americas in the Afternoon/Evening, I think it's a safe bet that the newcomer that will probably be revealed will be one that's particularly popular in the West. I base this claim off of the fact that Little Mac, a character few Japanese Smash fans care about, was revealed in a Nintendo Direct that aired during a convenient afternoon/evening time slot in the Americas.

Well, there's Palutena...Pac-Man I...guess? Preeeetty sure if he's in that's an E3 reveal though, but I could be wrong.

There's someone I'm forgetting. Someone who's a really big deal over here. Who was it again? I'm really not sure... Hmmmmmmmmmmm.

I shouldn't...shouldn't let myself get too hype. Can't...won't...musn't....

 

[Kon]

Why do people keep saying this? It can't be an earlier release because we have no date. All we have been told is 2014.

This was probably always the plan: have a Smash Direct to show the release date and some other game stuff for hype.

An earlier release is meant as "earlier release than expected" because the expectations were pointing more towards a late 2014 release. (especially because Sakurai said his goal for 2014 were to release SSB4 and this gives the impression there is still much to do so far and therefore an early release of SSB4 seems/seemed unlikely)

 

[Speculator]

I have no idea at all what to expect for this Direct. If I had to take a stab at guessing, then I think it'll mostly be like the E3 Developer Direct where Sakurai talked us through Villager, Mega Man and WFT. He hasn't really had a chance to demonstrate how Rosalina and Little Mac work, so I think he'll start off talking about those before going into a reveal trailer and then a short run-down of how that character plays.

... although, the Developer Direct was only eight minutes long, and scheduled Directs are usually roughly thirty minutes at least. Maybe the Developer Direct wouldn't be the best format to apply to a longer show.

 

[Freduardo]

He's going to detail DLC plans which will change the face of DLC in video games forever.

 

[ToothiestAura]

He's going to detail DLC plans which will change the face of DLC in video games forever.

DLC not on the disc. Wham. Breakthrough.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Thankfully my pessimistic side is gone for the time being.
Anyways, I'm going Wario and I dunno... Ike for vets I guess. Newcomers, I'm betting on K. Rool and Takamaru.

 

[ToothiestAura]

An earlier release is meant as "earlier release than expected" because the expectations were pointing more towards a late 2014 release. (especially because Sakurai said his goal for 2014 were to release SSB4 and this gives the impression there is still much to do so far and therefore an early release of SSB4 seems/seemed unlikely)

Fan expectations don't mean anything. And this Direct doesn't mean it's releasing soon. Hell, it doesn't even mean we'll get a release date (but that would be a let down). I understand your worries, but they're probably unwarranted. Just relax and wait.

 

[The Light Music Club]

I think we will see two or three vets, probably Yoshi, Ike, and someone from Melee i'll pick the Ice Climbers. As for newcomers, if Ike isn't revealed we will get Chrom/Robin/Micaiah and if he is revealed we will get Palutena or Takumaru.

 

[Oz37]

I hate to be that guy, but what if we somehow don't get any characters in the Direct? I'm not saying it's likely at all, but when has anything been truly "likely" with Sakurai? He has shown himself to be a master of completely ignoring expectations. Perhaps he has something specific to share with us about the game that has nothing to do with character reveals. As unlikely (and cruel) as it sounds, it is technically possible.

 

[Kon]

I hate to be that guy, but what if we somehow don't get any characters in the Direct? I'm not saying it's likely at all, but when has anything been truly "likely" with Sakurai? He has shown himself to be a master of completely ignoring expectations. Perhaps he has something specific to share with us about the game that has nothing to do with character reveals. As unlikely (and cruel) as it sounds, it is technically possible.

There was already no single character in March, so no single character in a whole Direct dedicated to present Smash infos would be more than strange. I mean you probably saw how we were all expecting 1-2 characters in March and how the month because of no single character reveal got the hype pushed down a bit. Now with a Smash Direct hype is increasing and no character reveal wouldn't be clever in any way of thinking. The only reason why Sakurai wouldn't show a single yet not revealed character would be to troll us.

 

[Oz37]

And I agree, but I won't say it's not possible.

 

[Freduardo]

I agree we're getting three vets, but I think the newcomer is going to be Mii (Could potentially have so much content he could have a pokemon trainer level of reveal of being multiple characters) or Ridley (Nintendo is desperate to reclaim their western market. They already own Japan).

 

[egaddmario]

I hate to be that guy, but what if we somehow don't get any characters in the Direct? I'm not saying it's likely at all, but when has anything been truly "likely" with Sakurai? He has shown himself to be a master of completely ignoring expectations. Perhaps he has something specific to share with us about the game that has nothing to do with character reveals. As unlikely (and cruel) as it sounds, it is technically possible.

I honestly doubt Sakurai wouldn't show a character. Even if it's a veteran. But of course, everyone's hoping for a newcomer, which is think is super plausible. There's only 5 newcomers announced and the game's coming out this year. If newcomers are getting their own videos, i would find it odd if the game launched with only 5-8 newcomers.

 

[BindingBlade]

Just saying, the guy behind Xenoblade Chronicles retweeted Sakurai's reminder about the direct. Since it's only Smash....Shulk.

 

[Deleted member]

Just saying, the guy behind Xenoblade Chronicles retweeted Sakurai's reminder about the direct. Since it's only Smash....Shulk.

Can you please provide a link?

 

[Wario Bros.]

IT'S A TWEET! NOT A RETWEET!

Learn the difference guys.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

IT'S A TWEET! NOT A RETWEET!

Learn the difference guys.

I'd imagine the important part would be the message itself and not whether it's a tweet or a retweet.

Did this tweet from the xenoblade person mention the direct/tell people to watch it?

(This isn't about that woman saying she's allowed to like other games is it? That one's old news.)

 

[Wario Bros.]

I'd imagine the important part would be the message itself and not whether it's a tweet or a retweet.

Did this tweet from the xenoblade person mention the direct/tell people to watch it?

(This isn't about that woman saying she's allowed to like other games is it? That one's old news.)

No it did not. All it said was she enjoys "SSBB".

 

[Sabrewulf238]

No it did not. All it said was she enjoys "SSBB".

People are really kicking that one to death.....

 

[Snagrio]

At this point I don't know who I'm most excited for. Maybe my brain is just automatically picking all my favorites to hype over at once instead of a single character so that chances are at least one of them will be shown for me to be satisfied with.

 

[Deleted member]

At this point I don't know who I'm most excited for. Maybe my brain is just automatically picking all my favorites to hype over at once instead of a single character so that chances are at least one of them will be shown for me to be satisfied with.

For me, I am just hoping that Shulk will get confirmed. I am not expecting him, thus my hype is a bit low and so are my expectations.
I'm not really excited for anyone else other than Shulk.
Really anything could happen tomorrow...

 

[UltimateWario]

I know I shouldn't let this Metroid get my hopes up.

But I am anyway.