How can we predict reveals?

[BluePikmin11]

No Ground Zeroes reveal.
Just wait patiently.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

In case anyone has forgotten, Sonic was revealed before Lost World was released. We'll probably see a polar opposite with Solid Snake, if he is returning; he'd likely be revealed on the Nintendo Direct, after the release of the newest Metal Gear title.

Well I agree more likely on metal gear part 2 if he is in and on a direct

And either tomorrow or 2 days is the momment of truth for character 25 those are the best days.

 

[HatsuneMiku]

I really dislike the idea of Snake being revealed in a Direct because of the release of a game that's not even coming to their console, that's like promoting the competition. Besides, if Snake does come back it's less likely we'll see a new third party besides Megaman. Which is why i kind of want him gone.

 

[ToothiestAura]

I really dislike the idea of Snake being revealed in a Direct because of the release of a game that's not even coming to their console, that's like promoting the competition. Besides, if Snake does come back it's less likely we'll see a new third party besides Megaman. Which is why i kind of want him gone.

Yeah, this and Project M kind of make me less worried about cuts.

So, a quadruple pic update is new correct? I've only seen two pics at once.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I really dislike the idea of Snake being revealed in a Direct because of the release of a game that's not even coming to their console, that's like promoting the competition. Besides, if Snake does come back it's less likely we'll see a new third party besides Megaman. Which is why i kind of want him gone.

That's not necessarily the case. Smash 4 could easily get 4 third parties, and at this point the only one who is even remotely likely is Pac Man.

There is no reason to cut Snake. Sakurai didn't care about the fact that MGS IV was exclusive to PS3 either.

We'll have to wait and see though. Thursday would be the day for a reveal.

 

[Staarih]

One of the reasons I want to see Snake return is to see how he would fit in this time, seeing as the colors have really been boosted and they're more bright and light - actually, one of the things I like about Snake how he sort of doesn't fit in... but still does.

 

[HatsuneMiku]

That's not necessarily the case. Smash 4 could easily get 4 third parties, and at this point the only one who is even remotely likely is Pac Man.

There is no reason to cut Snake. Sakurai didn't care about the fact that MGS IV was exclusive to PS3 either.

We'll have to wait and see though. Thursday would be the day for a reveal.

4t third parties is not impossible, but that's rather something that would happen if we get lucky. 3 characters is the most logical to expect, but it all depends on how big the roster turns out to be.

 

[Snagrio]

That's not necessarily the case. Smash 4 could easily get 4 third parties, and at this point the only one who is even remotely likely is Pac Man.

There is no reason to cut Snake. Sakurai didn't care about the fact that MGS IV was exclusive to PS3 either.

We'll have to wait and see though. Thursday would be the day for a reveal.

While Sakurai doesn't care about promoting games for other systems, Nintendo, especially with the Wii U's poor state, definitely does. And I'm pretty sure Nintendo does have at least some power over what goes in this game.

Sure such a thing happened with the Wii, but that console was not in any sort of peril like the U is currently, so I imagine things are going to be a bit more strict.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

While Sakurai doesn't care about promoting games for other systems, Nintendo, especially with the Wii U's poor state, definitely does. And I'm pretty sure Nintendo does have at least some power over what goes in this game.

Sure such a thing happened with the Wii, but that console was not in any sort of peril like the U is currently, so I imagine things are going to be a bit more strict.

True, but MGS is a AAA game. Not to mention it's Nintendo's fault for killing 3rd party support. Kojima has plenty of reason to not bring MGS to Wii U. I don't blame him.

I doubt it matters. If Snake gets cut, then all that will happen is a movement to make him DLC, and if that doesn't happen, then he will become the next Mewtwo.

But I'll be the one volunteering to lead the effort for Snake as DLC. I assure you.

 

[egaddmario]

Off topic from the Snake talk, but i had an idea-
So everyone's talking about Mario Party Island Tour and Mario Kart 8 for Yoshi and Wario. But I think that's not likely. I do think Wario for Island Tour is likely, but MK8 is a different story. Why would we get Yoshi for it when Yoshi's New Island is coming out in the Summer in Japan? I don't think that's likely. What I do think is likely is seeing someone else revealed on that day for MK8. "But who egadd? That doesn't seem logical! All the other Mario characters are in and i doubt we're going to get a 6th Mario rep!" And I would agree. But we're forgetting something-

ROB was in Mario Kart DS.

I don't think it's unlikely that we could see ROB for MK8.

My other idea is Captain Falcon. Mario Kart 8 is all about anti-gravity, something F-Zero has referenced. And the Blue Falcon was in Mario Kart Wii.

I think it's in the realm of possibility we could see either of them for Mario Kart 8 and then Yoshi for Yoshi's New Island in the Summer for the Japanese release date.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Off topic from the Snake talk, but i had an idea-
So everyone's talking about Mario Party Island Tour and Mario Kart 8 for Yoshi and Wario. But I think that's not likely. I do think Wario for Island Tour is likely, but MK8 is a different story. Why would we get Yoshi for it when Yoshi's New Island is coming out in the Summer in Japan? I don't think that's likely. What I do think is likely is seeing someone else revealed on that day for MK8. "But who egadd? That doesn't seem logical! All the other Mario characters are in and i doubt we're going to get a 6th Mario rep!" And I would agree. But we're forgetting something-

ROB was in Mario Kart DS.

I don't think it's unlikely that we could see ROB for MK8.

My other idea is Captain Falcon. Mario Kart 8 is all about anti-gravity, something F-Zero has referenced. And the Blue Falcon was in Mario Kart Wii.

I think it's in the realm of possibility we could see either of them for Mario Kart 8 and then Yoshi for Yoshi's New Island in the Summer for the Japanese release date.

I think that's a little far. If they get revealed with Mario Kart 8, they would also be getting a link to Mario Kart 8. R.O.B and Falcon would not make all that much sense.

Both of those two will probably be random reveals.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I think that's a little far. If they get revealed with Mario Kart 8, they would also be getting a link to Mario Kart 8. R.O.B and Falcon would not make all that much sense.

Both of those two will probably be random reveals.

No no he's not out of the realm

If R.O.B becomes playable in mario kart 8 he can present for mario kart 8 (not a high chance but still possible)

And the blue falcon. Why not f-zero is antigravity racing.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

No no he's not out of the realm

If R.O.B becomes playable in mario kart 8 he can present for mario kart 8 (not a high chance but still possible)

And the blue falcon. Why not f-zero is antigravity racing.

There's a difference between having a small similarity or relevance to a game and actually being able to advertise the game.

Captain Falcon wouldn't make any sense to reveal simply for Mario Kart, because besides the fact it's a racing game and what have you, he has absolutely nothing to do with Mario Kart.

If R.O.B is in Mario Kart 8, then sure they can reveal him for that. But that's a big if. If he isn't in it, then there would be no reason to reveal him for it.

I mean honestly that's like saying they would reveal Sonic for an F-Zero game because they gotta go fast.

 

[Snagrio]

One the main factors many (including myself) like to use for predictions are anniversaries, but I've just realized, exactly how many reveals so far have actually been based on some sort of anniversary? All I can remember atm is Lucario for Brawl's anniversary and maybe one or two others.

The main point is, are anniversaries that sure of a thing to base a good number of predictions on? Most reveals up to now have had to do with new games launches anyway.

With that said though some characters obviously won't have any new games coming up, so I guess anniversary dates are a safer bet for their cases.

 

[Staarih]

One the main factors many (including myself) like to use for predictions are anniversaries, but I've just realized, exactly how many reveals so far have actually been based on some sort of anniversary? All I can remember atm is Lucario for Brawl's anniversary and maybe one or two others.

I think Lucario is the only one confirmed to be revealed on an anniversary (of a Smash game of all things). Some might argue that Peach was revealed for whatever-that-Mario-game-was's anniversary, but I think it was merely a coincidence, as it didn't even happen on the actual day and it even wasn't a weekend. There's also Little Mac for Punch-Out's anniversary, but that's yet another stretch. I'm not sure if there are any other characters tied to anniversaries.

I honestly don't think anniversaries mean... anything, really. Even for characters with no games coming up, anniversaries don't seem to be a big thing. For example, the Ice Climbers were not revealed on their anniversary in January (but I guess NES Remix 2 or whatever works for them for a future release). But I personally don't look too much into anniversaries, especially when it comes to character reveals. I guess Sakurai could surprise us though - tomorrow is Super Metroid's anniversary if I recall correctly, so we'll know soon enough haha!

 

[FalKoopa]

The only anniversaries Sakurai has acknowledged so far are Smash 64's and Brawl's. The only reveal on an anniversary was Lucario.

So, in short, Anniversaries mean nothing, and it's better to not expect anything from them (except disappointment.)

 

[ToothiestAura]

Seems like in the past few weeks Sakurai has been stepping the info he's been giving us. It seems we've seen more attack info, stage info and items recently. Does this mean anything? Revealing more now that E3/release are getting closer? Or is it concidence?

 

[Wario Bros.]

Yeah, anniversaries mean absolutely nothing unless it's about Super Smash Bros.. I'm just looking at new game releases for character reveals.

 

[Groose]

All signs point to a character tonight. Two game releases, a character drought and filler pic preceding it... I'm investing heavily in a character for today.

My main qualm is this: who would they reveal? Snake's release isn't ideal because it's not on a Nintendo system; additionally, all third-parties have been revealed in Directs thus far. Mario Party only really has Wario and Yoshi, and they both have games coming out sooner or later.

My prediction? Logic dictated Wario or Yoshi... but I'll choose something else: a picture of a cardboard box without a character announcement in sight. I'm feeling it.

Yeah, anniversaries mean absolutely nothing unless it's about Super Smash Bros.. I'm just looking at new game releases for character reveals.

Yes, people understand! Anniversaries aren't very important at all! I don't have to fight that uphill battle anymore!

 

[False Sense]

I'm just going to guess we'll get a completely random character Friday.

 

[TumblrFamous]

Logically, it should be one of Snake, Yoshi, or Wario. However, there's also a chance it can just be some random character.

 

[Deleted member]

I think that we will either get Wario or Yoshi this week. I will give the edge to Wario since he also has the WarioWare Anniversary on Friday, so he might get revealed for both that and Mario Party.

As for Snake, it wouldn't be ideal to reveal him tomorrow. He would be saved for a worldwide Direct where he will get a trailer to coincide with his reveal. It wouldn't be fair for Sonic to get a trailer, but not Snake, right? I still don't even think that he is in the game.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

They should just load a trailer on his page.

Skip the Direct and just reveal him Sakurai. PLEASE.

 

[ToothiestAura]

Well, if I remember correctly Sakurai stated in his whole "no cutscenes in Smash 4" he wanted to create videos that would be helped by being spread online. So perhaps getting one strictly from the website is a possibility.

I think it's important to note that Sonic's trailer is different form the others because it involves strictly gameplay rather than some pre-rendered parts. So it would seem that third party Vet trailers are lesser and therefore it may possible to see one without a direct.
I still doubt that, though.

 

[Wario Bros.]

That was surprising. I was sure we'd see another character reveal today. Oh well.

 

[ChikoLad]

The only anniversaries Sakurai has acknowledged so far are Smash 64's and Brawl's. The only reveal on an anniversary was Lucario.

So, in short, Anniversaries mean nothing, and it's better to not expect anything from them (except disappointment.)

You're forgetting about Little Mac. His reveal date was the 30th anniversary of the Punch-Out series.
So I think anniversaries could have some significance.

My prediction? Logic dictated Wario or Yoshi... but I'll choose something else: a picture of a cardboard box without a character announcement in sight. I'm feeling it.

In other words, a pseuedo-Snake reveal? :V

As for a March reveal, everyone seems to be putting their money on Palutena (Kid Icarus Uprising anniversary), or Snake (Ground Zeroes release). These will only happen if we get a Nintendo Direct, but they are not deconfirmed if they don't happen on their expected dates within March, because Nintendo Direct's can't always happen at the same time as a significant date. Sonic was revealed to promote Lost World, but was revealed about two weeks before it came out, because it was the closest Direct. Same goes for Rosalina and 3D World, except Rosie came late.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

You're forgetting about Little Mac. His reveal date was the 30th anniversary of the Punch-Out series.

Barely...

Same month...

Nothing else.....

If we're counting that then we have to count A LOT of stuff.

 

[ChikoLad]

Barely...

Same month...

Nothing else.....

If we're counting that then we have to count A LOT of stuff.

I can't even seem to find Punch-Out's exact original release anywhere (the arcade game, that is, as it came first), I can only find February 1984. So it might have been the exact date, for all we know.

 

[Staarih]

So no character reveal today, shame really. Now I think I'll not expect anyone tomorrow either as today would have been a perfect day for one, tomorrow I think there's only anniversaries and those are always questionable. So I'll keep my expectations low, at least I'll be positively surprised if a character is revealed tomorrow.

 

[ChikoLad]

Veterans have a tendency to be announced on a Monday or Friday, so I'm somewhat hopeful about tomorrow.

 

[False Sense]

As I said before, I'm expecting a completely random character reveal tomorrow. If not then, then next week for sure. I can't say I'm exactly sure why everyone was so sure we'd get a reveal today, to be honest.

 

[BluePikmin11]

No Yoshi.
I have truly no idea when Yoshi will be announced.
Palutena is the only newcomer option for March now.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Maybe wario is on hold for tomorrow it's the warioware anniversary tomorrow

But if nothing is tomorrow I'm just betting we get a character reveal next week and it will be a random reveal

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Guys, we aren't getting a newcomer just because of an anniversary.

Just wait until April. We should get a newcomer then. That's just how the schedule works. We shouldn't predict against patterns we know exist.

Anyway, I expect somebody tomorrow. Ike maybe as a random?

I'm just hoping E3 hypes me up, after waiting such a long time...

"Kept you waiting, huh?"

 

[Snagrio]

I'll just secretly hope for Ike tomorrow for the heck of it.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Just a random guess for a random reveal (and not because of my name Nd avatar and wNting of him) R.O.B

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Based on recent events, here are a few predictions:

Random vet tomorrow or next week
Palutena or Chrom next month as a newcomer
Snake at E3 along with a few newcomers

Can't say who the vet next month will be, but it'll probably be random if anything.

Hoping for Ike next, or at least a character that will be interesting to talk about. Considering anniversaries mean nothing, I don't really buy us getting Wario tomorrow for the anniversary of Wario Ware or whatever. I think that's a major stretch.

 

[Staarih]

While I did say I don't expect a character reveal tomorrow (because there isn't really anything significant going on), I suppose a random reveal would be possible. I just hope we'd get a reveal of ANY character out of the way soon, because it's getting quite exhausting to think "oh, maybe a character will be revealed tomorrow... or maybe next week... or maybe we won't get anything this month..." all the time, even with low expectations. If we got one now, we'd know not to expect one in a while.

no, I never overthink or analyze these things... or still have high expectations when I say I don't haha!

 

[Deleted member]

I'm still hoping for Wario tomorrow. I have this feeling that he will get confirmed tomorrow… hopefully my feelings aren't wrong… I wanna see the fat man get confirmed already!

 

[Snagrio]

It's over halfway through March and not a single character announcement. When you put the apparent two reveals per month pattern into account, that's really unusual.