How can we predict reveals?

[Deleted member]

I think we could see Yoshi in May for Mario Kart 8 if Wario is confirmed next week.

But wow… the possibility of waiting for Yoshi until summertime is brutal. That's an entire year just to wait for a character that is a part of the Initial 8.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Sakurai does tend to use Japan release dates for revealing characters. The reason for Diddy's reveal being North America related was more the fact that Little Mac was revealed on the same day as Tropical Freeze's release in Japan.

 

[GmanSir]

Sakurai does tend to use Japan release dates for revealing characters. The reason for Diddy's reveal being North America related was more the fact that Little Mac was revealed on the same day as Tropical Freeze's release in Japan.

Either that or it's because Diddy and DK in general is western. I mean notice how a western newcomer (Mac) got revealed in the Direct that was better suited for Western hours.

 

[Snagrio]

That sucks if we really do have to wait till summer for Yoshi...

I did have a dream sometime this morning involving Ike, so maybe he's next instead?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Guys, there's always Plan B, the Year of Yoshi, whenever it gets announced.

 

[Wario Bros.]

There's always the Japan release of Mario Party: Island Tour (March 20)

 

[Staarih]

Either that or it's because Diddy and DK in general is western. I mean notice how a western newcomer (Mac) got revealed in the Direct that was better suited for Western hours.

Some could argue that the Direct was at that time because it had Bayonetta 2 gameplay (though it was early morning for Japan so I don't really know), and also Punch-Out's anniversary was that month and thus the Little Mac reveal. Or that's what some people base it on. Anyway, surely all of the Direct's are planned beforehand and the date for one just happened to be on the Japanese release of Tropical Freeze. If the Direct had been on another day, I'm sure we would have seen Diddy on the Japanese release day for TF.

I'm still confident that we'll get at least two characters this month, so I'm expecting the last weeks of March being interesting. Yoshi isn't still completely out of the picture, because there's the Japanese release of Mario Party: Island Tour coming up. I guess Wario is an option for that too. However, I feel like both Yoshi and Wario should be revealed in correlation to games of their own series, so maybe we'll indeed see Yoshi later in the summer and Wario whenever some WarioWare thing comes up (I think it has some sort of an anniversary this month? Anniversaries tend to not be acknowledged though...).

Of course, there might be a smaller Direct announced at some point, and next week would be perfect for one I think, since the Year of Luigi ends the 18th and as such a new character of the year (Yoshi!) could be announced, and also revealed to be in Smash. I personally would like a Snake confirmation though, and I'd rather have it now in a smaller Direct so the worldwide ones can be left for newcomers (and there's always MGS Ground Zeroes coming up...). But anyhow, a smaller Direct with a character reveal sounds plausible too.

Some say a Pokémon character is possible but we already passed the Japanese release of Pokémon Battle Trozei so I don't think we'll get anything for the US reveal of it. Now, am I missing something? Random character reveals of course, even the likes of MetaKnight and whoever could be possible, as it's pretty apparent that the US game releases aren't really noted (regarding the US release of Kirby Triple Deluxe for MK, for instance).

Anywayy, we'll see, I'm sure it's going to be interesting.

 

[Snagrio]

Hmm, if the supposed stage theory is anything to go on, then we might want to look out for a Pokemon veteran now...

 

[Forcerounds]

Well, I guess Yoshi will have to wait until the Japanese release date, which is strategically important because the Japanese will be exposed to the "this game is ok, but forgettable" comments from the West for a few months. Mario Party: Island Tour… may or may not get a character, but if anyone gets it, it should be Wario because Yoshi has his own thing later in the year.

And then for Mario Kart 8….. I haven't a clue.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I still think Yoshi is the safest assumption. Hey, it makes too much sense!

Huh, guess I was wrong in the end.

 

[Oblivion129]

Guys, there's always Plan B, the Year of Yoshi, whenever it gets announced.

I agree, just like Luigi, right?

 

[UltimateWario]

Where are people pulling this Year of Yoshi crap from?

 

[Deleted member]

I can't see the Year of Yoshi happen. It's the 19th Anniversary of Yoshi's Island, it wouldn't make sense to give Yoshi a year. Yoshi's New Island was also just released without any major word from Nintendo.

Year of Wario sounds a bit more plausible since it's the 20th Anniversary of Wario Land, but I wouldn't count on it. If Yoshi were to get confirmed, we would have to get see what happens next week and in May. If Wario is confirmed next week, then we might see Yoshi for Mario Kart 8. If Wario isn't confirmed next week, we might see one of the two in May. If we don't see Yoshi in May, then we will have to wait for him in the summer (ouch).

 

[Jason the Yoshi]

Where are people pulling this Year of Yoshi crap from?

They just think they're one step ahead of Nintendo, but Nintendo is miles ahead of them. They understand that we see right through them, so they change their game plan countless times. It's just how they do it. You keep saying something's gonna happen, they find it out, then they end up scrapping it.

 

[ToothiestAura]

Where are people pulling this Year of Yoshi crap from?

I don't know. Speculation based on the fact that there's two Yoshi games on the horizon ( yarn Yoshi and new island)?

Two weeks in and no character? Seems less likely well get two character this month, then. But who knows?

 

[Snagrio]

I don't know. Speculation based on the fact that there's two Yoshi games on the horizon ( yarn Yoshi and new island)?

Two weeks in and no character? Seems less likely well get two character this month, then. But who knows?

I don't know if I'd go that far. There have been instances in the past where two veterans were revealed less then a week from each other.

 

[Kon]

I don't know if I'd go that far. There have been instances in the past where two veterans were revealed less then a week from each other.

You mean like Little Mac on February 13th and Diddy on February 21st?

You're right. It doesn't mean anything, two character reveals are still possible.

I'm however not convinced to see Yoshi being revealed in relation to the japanese release of Mario Party: Island Tour. In that case, Wario seems more likely at least to me.

Also: I don't think we will see Yoshi and Wario this month. Therefore it wouldn't be a bad idea to think about who's left for a random reveal? (meaning: Who doesn't have a chance to promote anything?)
SSB64:
Yoshi (Yoshi's New Island release in Japan has yet to come and Yarn Yoshi should also be released in 2014 probably, so there are two good opportunities to reveal Yoshi without even talking of possible Mario Party:Island Tour related or Mario Kart 8 related reveals)
Captain Falcon is possible
Jigglypuff too
same goes for Ness
-------------------------------
Melee:
Falco would be an option, especially as I expect Falco to be revealed before Wolf
Ganondorf (not sure about him, he could easily be shown at E3 when Zelda U will get its first trailer)
Ice Climbers
Mr.Game&Watch
Pichu (no comeback expected)
Young Link(no comeback expected)
Dr.Mario(no comeback expected)
Mewtwo(as he is the only one who could return from the cuts, we can expect a special threatment for him and therefore a random reveal seems not plausible yet)
--------------------------------
Brawl:
R.O.B.
Meta Knight (while Sakurai mostly ignores releases in the West, he may handle it different for his own franchise: Kirby)
Wolf (while I can imagine Wolf as a random reveal, I can't imagine to see Wolf being revealed before Falco)
Pokémon Trainer
Lucas (same as for Wolf, I expect Ness to be revealed before Lucas)
Snake (he would be definitely revealed during either a Nintendo Direct or at E3)
Wario (He could be revealed at the japanese release of Mario Party:Island Tour as well as at the japanese release of Mario Kart 8, maybe even revealed for the GBA virtual console)
----------------------------------
Just my two points after all.

Reduced version of this. These are the characters I could see in the near future being randomly revealed:
Captain Falcon, Jigglypuff, Ness, Falco, Ganondorf, Ice Climbers, Mr.Game&Watch, R.O.B., Pokémon Trainer.
I would even go that far and expect a retro to be revealed soon as we have no single retro character until now. Pit isn't a retro anymore since the release of Kid Icarus: Uprising.

 

[ikemachine]

Yoshi will be announced for st. Patrick's day because he is green

 

[Snagrio]

Yoshi will be announced for st. Patrick's day because he is green

I'd imagine Sakurai has no idea what St. Patrick's Day is. Don't quote me on that though.

 

[ppbto]

I think there will be a small direct at 18th commemorating the end of the year of Luigi and the reveal of the year of ____ with the subsequent reveal of ____ as a playable character.

 

[---]

I think there will be a small direct at 18th commemorating the end of the year of Luigi and the reveal of the year of ____ with the subsequent reveal of ____ as a playable character.

If the rumors about a Year of Yoshi, that wouldn't surprise me to reveal him then instead of now.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

So...I will admit I'm probably jumping to a lot of conclusions...but hear me out.

So if we take this new Mii related stage as anything, that would be 2 stages devoted to Miis. I firmly believe that Miis will be included as customizable playable characters. That can also relate to the first trailer leak that also included Pac-Man.

So if we consider Pac Man and Miis, that would add onto the total newcomers, making it a whopping 7.

If you consider the Palutena leak, which mind you, has NOT been proven fake yet, that would be newcomer number 8.

If you consider the concept that Fire Emblem will get a newcomer (which is certainly likely), that brings it to 9.

If you consider the retro character (Takamaru, Lip, etc...) that many expect, that brings it to 10.

If you consider Mewtwo, the sole remaining almost shoe in, that's 11.

K.Rool and Ridley, two very much requested newcomers, would bring it to 13.

Basically...what I'm saying is, is that if there are any more "out of left field" character, that we may not see certain highly requested characters. Mind you, I will admit that I am taking a lot of liberties here. However, there is a possibility that one or more of the highly requested characters may not make the cut. Assuming there aren't any cuts.

I will tell you all, that if we don't see K.Rool, Ridley, and Mewtwo make the cut, that I myself, no matter how unique the newcomers, will consider this a failure newcomer wise.

That said, the next few reveals may turn the tables on speculation. We have no idea who we'll see next month in the Direct. April and E3 are incredibly important. I can almost guarantee that we'll see a 3rd newcomer aside from Pac and Miis (assuming we get those two at E3 to start with). Whoever that newcomer is will determine what direction we're going.

Because E3 is a Western event, I would certainly not be surprised at Ridley making his playable debut. However, if he is not the one shown, I will be a tad worried.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but this is the reality. If we get anymore anomaly characters, then we may not see one or more of the top characters.

 

[ikemachine]

So...I will admit I'm probably jumping to a lot of conclusions...but hear me out.

So if we take this new Mii related stage as anything, that would be 2 stages devoted to Miis. I firmly believe that Miis will be included as customizable playable characters. That can also relate to the first trailer leak that also included Pac-Man.

So if we consider Pac Man and Miis, that would add onto the total newcomers, making it a whopping 7.

If you consider the Palutena leak, which mind you, has NOT been proven fake yet, that would be newcomer number 8.

If you consider the concept that Fire Emblem will get a newcomer (which is certainly likely), that brings it to 9.

If you consider the retro character (Takamaru, Lip, etc...) that many expect, that brings it to 10.

If you consider Mewtwo, the sole remaining almost shoe in, that's 11.

K.Rool and Ridley, two very much requested newcomers, would bring it to 13.

Basically...what I'm saying is, is that if there are any more "out of left field" character, that we may not see certain highly requested characters. Mind you, I will admit that I am taking a lot of liberties here. However, there is a possibility that one or more of the highly requested characters may not make the cut. Assuming there aren't any cuts.

I will tell you all, that if we don't see K.Rool, Ridley, and Mewtwo make the cut, that I myself, no matter how unique the newcomers, will consider this a failure newcomer wise.

That said, the next few reveals may turn the tables on speculation. We have no idea who we'll see next month in the Direct. April and E3 are incredibly important. I can almost guarantee that we'll see a 3rd newcomer aside from Pac and Miis (assuming we get those two at E3 to start with). Whoever that newcomer is will determine what direction we're going.

Because E3 is a Western event, I would certainly not be surprised at Ridley making his playable debut. However, if he is not the one shown, I will be a tad worried.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but this is the reality. If we get anymore anomaly characters, then we may not see one or more of the top characters.

I'd have to agree with you if K Rool, Ridley, nor mewtwo get confirmed. I mighy consider not getting this smash unless Sakurai woos me with the remaining newcomers because right now im only excited for mega man and kind of little mac but other than that I didn't want villager, rosalina, or WFT

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

So...I will admit I'm probably jumping to a lot of conclusions...but hear me out.

So if we take this new Mii related stage as anything, that would be 2 stages devoted to Miis. I firmly believe that Miis will be included as customizable playable characters. That can also relate to the first trailer leak that also included Pac-Man.

So if we consider Pac Man and Miis, that would add onto the total newcomers, making it a whopping 7.

If you consider the Palutena leak, which mind you, has NOT been proven fake yet, that would be newcomer number 8.

If you consider the concept that Fire Emblem will get a newcomer (which is certainly likely), that brings it to 9.

If you consider the retro character (Takamaru, Lip, etc...) that many expect, that brings it to 10.

If you consider Mewtwo, the sole remaining almost shoe in, that's 11.

K.Rool and Ridley, two very much requested newcomers, would bring it to 13.

Basically...what I'm saying is, is that if there are any more "out of left field" character, that we may not see certain highly requested characters. Mind you, I will admit that I am taking a lot of liberties here. However, there is a possibility that one or more of the highly requested characters may not make the cut. Assuming there aren't any cuts.

I will tell you all, that if we don't see K.Rool, Ridley, and Mewtwo make the cut, that I myself, no matter how unique the newcomers, will consider this a failure newcomer wise.

That said, the next few reveals may turn the tables on speculation. We have no idea who we'll see next month in the Direct. April and E3 are incredibly important. I can almost guarantee that we'll see a 3rd newcomer aside from Pac and Miis (assuming we get those two at E3 to start with). Whoever that newcomer is will determine what direction we're going.

Because E3 is a Western event, I would certainly not be surprised at Ridley making his playable debut. However, if he is not the one shown, I will be a tad worried.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but this is the reality. If we get anymore anomaly characters, then we may not see one or more of the top characters.

I agree with this 100%

And I woulden't worry about mewtwo he's the most requested character in both usa and japan (i think)

 

[Kon]

So...I will admit I'm probably jumping to a lot of conclusions...but hear me out.

So if we take this new Mii related stage as anything, that would be 2 stages devoted to Miis. I firmly believe that Miis will be included as customizable playable characters. That can also relate to the first trailer leak that also included Pac-Man.
It's a good argument for the inclusion of the Mii. However it could also be that Sakurai doesn't want to include the Mii and instead he puts a few Mii based stages in the game. However I do not see why Pac-Man should be seen safe due to the inclusion of the Mii. Even if the Mii were in the roster, this would still not mean Pac-Man is in for sure.
So if we consider Pac Man and Miis, that would add onto the total newcomers, making it a whopping 7.

If you consider the Palutena leak, which mind you, has NOT been proven fake yet, that would be newcomer number 8.
In my opinion it's too early to jump on a conclusion at this point. The Palutena leak hasn't been proven fake, doesn't necessarily mean the leak is true.
If you consider the concept that Fire Emblem will get a newcomer (which is certainly likely), that brings it to 9.
I agree with you at this point.
If you consider the retro character (Takamaru, Lip, etc...) that many expect, that brings it to 10.
Check.
If you consider Mewtwo, the sole remaining almost shoe in, that's 11.
Mewtwo isn't a newcomer but his return is of course likely.
K.Rool and Ridley, two very much requested newcomers, would bring it to 13.
If K.Rool and Ridley were in the roster, I would expect them to be revealed at this year's E3. If Sakurai weren't to reveal them there, I think there chances will get hurt.
Basically...what I'm saying is, is that if there are any more "out of left field" character, that we may not see certain highly requested characters. Mind you, I will admit that I am taking a lot of liberties here. However, there is a possibility that one or more of the highly requested characters may not make the cut. Assuming there aren't any cuts.
Assuming there aren't any cuts is a good point: We don't know anything. Does Snake make a return? May Fire Emblem be represented by 3 characters or may Fire Emblem work with a 2 rep model where 1 rep is the classic one(obviously Marth) and the other one the rep for the latest installment? Does Lucas return? What about the Pokémon Trainer? My point is: There are too many questions left, so assuming there aren't any cuts is already a strong expectation.
I will tell you all, that if we don't see K.Rool, Ridley, and Mewtwo make the cut, that I myself, no matter how unique the newcomers, will consider this a failure newcomer wise.

That said, the next few reveals may turn the tables on speculation. We have no idea who we'll see next month in the Direct. April and E3 are incredibly important. I can almost guarantee that we'll see a 3rd newcomer aside from Pac and Miis (assuming we get those two at E3 to start with). Whoever that newcomer is will determine what direction we're going.

Because E3 is a Western event, I would certainly not be surprised at Ridley making his playable debut. However, if he is not the one shown, I will be a tad worried.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but this is the reality. If we get anymore anomaly characters, then we may not see one or more of the top characters.

As you're saying you're jumping to a lot of conclusions while there are many things not that obvious. Pac-Man may get in, but for now, we don't have a confirmation that a Namco Bandai / Bandai Namco character will get in the roster. Also to consider a leak as "true" seems to me still like a difficult position. On the Palutena leak, you can't take one position or the other without keeping in mind it won't change anything. If Sakurai wants Palutena in the game, she will be in. However I keep a distant view on this topic.
You're right we can consider a retro character as this is something Sakurai keeps putting into the roster since Melee. And as I've said already Mewtwo would in my eyes not be a newcomer, because Mewtwo already had his debut in Melee. (It's as if you were to say Waluigi is a newcomer in Mario Kart 8 as he made no appearance in Mario Kart 7)

K.Rool and Ridley are both requested newcomers who should be revealed at E3. I mean Mii is more an "Ok" newcomer(revealing this character at E3 would not create that much hype, would it?) and Pac-Man would be a surprise but not as impressive as Mega Man. So you need some "strong" newcomers such as K.Rool and Ridley for E3. Therefore I expect both at E3 and whoever of both won't be revealed there seems to have pretty low chances to still get into the roster in my opinion.

 

[Snagrio]

I'll still get this game regardless, but the lack of Ridley, Mewtwo, and/or K. Rool would be a beyond glaring oversight. Besides the long-awaited Mega Man, there aren't really any major wow factors yet. Little Mac was expected, Rosalina is a neat addition yet not ground breaking, WFT's reveal was, well, WTF, and the Villager is...the Villager.

We need the characters that just about everybody wants. Many have been waiting years (over a decade even) for the likes of Ridley and K. Rool, and Mewtwo, even though he technically almost was in Brawl, he never should have left to begin with. It's make or break time folks.

 

[ToothiestAura]

I think we could see Yoshi in May for Mario Kart 8 if Wario is confirmed next month.

But wow… the possibility of waiting for Yoshi until summertime is brutal. That's an entire year just to wait for a character that is a part of the Initial 8.

I'd like to point out that the only character from SSB64 that has been revealed since E3 was Luigi. So, it's not like Yoshi's the only one left.

 

[Snagrio]

I'd like to point out that the only character from SSB64 that has been revealed since E3 was Luigi. So, it's not like Yoshi's the only one left.

If you count the four hidden characters, then yes that it true. However the other starting seven have been known since the initial trailer, so for Yoshi to still be waiting is a bit odd.

 

[ToothiestAura]

If you count the four hidden characters, then yes that it true. However the other starting seven have been known since the initial trailer, so for Yoshi to still be waiting is a bit odd.

I suppose, but there's only been one overall. Had there been at least two it would be weirder to me. It just seems like Sakurai just wants to show off newer Veterans. The most shown since E3 are from Brawl anyway.

 

[GmanSir]

So...I will admit I'm probably jumping to a lot of conclusions...but hear me out.

So if we take this new Mii related stage as anything, that would be 2 stages devoted to Miis. I firmly believe that Miis will be included as customizable playable characters. That can also relate to the first trailer leak that also included Pac-Man.

So if we consider Pac Man and Miis, that would add onto the total newcomers, making it a whopping 7.

If you consider the Palutena leak, which mind you, has NOT been proven fake yet, that would be newcomer number 8.

If you consider the concept that Fire Emblem will get a newcomer (which is certainly likely), that brings it to 9.

If you consider the retro character (Takamaru, Lip, etc...) that many expect, that brings it to 10.

If you consider Mewtwo, the sole remaining almost shoe in, that's 11.

K.Rool and Ridley, two very much requested newcomers, would bring it to 13.

Basically...what I'm saying is, is that if there are any more "out of left field" character, that we may not see certain highly requested characters. Mind you, I will admit that I am taking a lot of liberties here. However, there is a possibility that one or more of the highly requested characters may not make the cut. Assuming there aren't any cuts.

I will tell you all, that if we don't see K.Rool, Ridley, and Mewtwo make the cut, that I myself, no matter how unique the newcomers, will consider this a failure newcomer wise.

That said, the next few reveals may turn the tables on speculation. We have no idea who we'll see next month in the Direct. April and E3 are incredibly important. I can almost guarantee that we'll see a 3rd newcomer aside from Pac and Miis (assuming we get those two at E3 to start with). Whoever that newcomer is will determine what direction we're going.

Because E3 is a Western event, I would certainly not be surprised at Ridley making his playable debut. However, if he is not the one shown, I will be a tad worried.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but this is the reality. If we get anymore anomaly characters, then we may not see one or more of the top characters.

This is implying Sakurai will reveal all newcomers before the game comes out. I mean King K Rool is a good fit for a secret character. DK already has 2 starters, so making the old villain that doesn't have that many recent appearances is perfect for an unlockable.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Well with Sakurai stating he doesn't want things leaked, and that all newcomer trailers will be available at the start.

That alone has me convinced.

 

[CombatScouter]

The Japanese anniversary for Kirby's Adventure (March 23) and the Wii U virtual console release of Amazing Mirror (April 3) are coming up, so it's possible that Meta Knight could be revealed around those dates.

Normally I wouldn't back up the "Sakurai bias" bs, but he may at least wish to acknowledge the anniversary of his very first home console release. It's also convenient that Meta Knight's debut was Adventure, and he played a major role in Amazing Mirror—the only Kirby game in which King Dedede never made an appearance. In addition, it's also Amazing Mirror's 10th anniversary.

I agree that we shouldn't be putting too much stock into anniversaries, but the stars may be aligned this time.

 

[Deleted member]

I predict three things:
1. Wario for Mario Party: Island Tour or WarioWare Anniversary
2. Meta Knight for Kirby's Adventure Anniversary
3. Snake for Ground Zeroes (doubt this one as he seems like he would be a Direct reveal; it wouldn't be fair to give Sonic a movie and not Snake, right?)

 

[Snagrio]

Idk, it feels like we're due for a random reveal.

 

[CombatScouter]

I predict three things:
1. Wario for Mario Party: Island Tour or WarioWare Anniversary
2. Meta Knight for Kirby's Adventure Anniversary
3. Snake for Ground Zeroes (doubt this one as he seems like he would be a Direct reveal; it wouldn't be fair to give Sonic a movie and not Snake, right?)

Those three were also featured in Brawl's first trailer.

*puts on tin foil hat*

Really though, even just one of those three would make me very happy; they were some of my favorite additions to Smash.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Well with Sakurai stating he doesn't want things leaked, and that all newcomer trailers will be available at the start.

That alone has me convinced.

Where did he say this?

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Where did he say this?

Pretty much the SSE cutscene thing. Why reward people with somthing in game if it's leaked before release anyway.

 

[Snagrio]

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if we know the whole roster before launch.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

It would make sense to at least reveal all Newcomers. Especially if you factor in his frustration with leaks and the like. The newcomer trailers are available from the beginning. Why would he leave a few secret, but then let you find out who is unlockable by having the trailers available?

 

[UltimateWario]

It would make sense to at least reveal all Newcomers. Especially if you factor in his frustration with leaks and the like. The newcomer trailers are available from the beginning. Why would he leave a few secret, but then let you find out who is unlockable by having the trailers available?

"Is Ridley in this game?"

"You'll just have to unlock everyone and find out!"

-is staring directly at Ridley's Newcomer Video in the Extras Menu- "..."

I do think that Sakurai will reveal every Newcomer before release, unlockable or not, simply because of what happened with Brawl (the Japanese finding out about the roster before us, which I'm sure more than a few people were disappointed with). Besides, most Newcomers that are on the list are big hype-inducers and money-makers.