How can we predict reveals?

[TumblrFamous]

I feel confident that we will have one more newcomer and 5 more veterans before E3. Of the 5, Wario, Yoshi, and Ice Climbers are plausible in my mind.

 

[fill]

Yoshi is probably going to be revealed on March, but I think when the Year of Luigi is over, Yoshi will be revealed.

if it is revealed that its year of the yoshi, do you think we would get another yoshi rep added? and add a possible something for the end to year of luigi, like a dr luigi alt costume reveal?

 

[Wario Bros.]

I'm a little 50/50 on Yoshi revealed this Friday. I kinda say this due to it's a North America release (even though we have no solid date in Japan). If you're going to argue Diddy Kong, remember Sakurai used the Japanese release date to hype us for the Nintendo Direct which had Little Mac. I'm not saying Yoshi has no chance this Friday but I'm keeping my expectations somewhat low just in case.

 

[Kon]

This month
Yoshi and one pokemon character. (I'd guess Mewtwo with some doubt)
Next month
Ice Climbers and one newcomer (Krystal or Chrom most likely)
May
Wario, Ganondorf, and one newcomer
June
Ness, Captain Falcon, Mr Game and Watch, Ridley, an extra Sonic character, Dixie Kong, and Shulk

Speaking of newcomers from already in Smash existing franchises, Rosalina was shown after the confirmation of all veterans of the franchise.

This could have been a coincidence, but I don't think this was really a coincidence. At that time, it looked strange having already 4 Super Mario characters shown while only having seen two Legend of Zelda characters and one Pokémon character. Still Sakurai decided to show Rosalina, another Super Mario character, as a newcomer.

Keeping this in mind, a Donkey Kong newcomer is also likely to expect. If Sakurai were to first confirm all the veterans of a series before revealing a newcomer of the series, Starfox still needs Falco(and Wolf if Wolf were to stay in the roster) and Fire Emblem could perhaps need Ike being confirmed before the reveal of Chrom. (or Ike being cut, all veterans would already be confirmed)

I still expect a Donkey Kong newcomer before any other existing series newcomer. Dixie would be an option for the spot as well as King K.Rool. And in my opinion there are good reasons for a third DK spot(since Brawl release, two new DKC games: DKCR, DKC:TF) Also all the veterans of the series are already confirmed: Donkey Kong and Diddy Kong.

So in my opinion we will get a DK newcomer or a newcomer of new series.

 

[Snagrio]

I feel like the really big hitters (Ridley and K. Rool) will be kept for an appropriately big event, aka E3.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Depending on who we get next, there could be quite a bit to speculate about.

If we get Palutena or K.Rool, it could very well be argued that the series completion theory is true. If we see any of K.Rooll/Palutena revealed next month, or a series getting a big push in terms of vet reveals, we might be getting something from them. This would mean Pokemon in the most potent case.

However, if we get Chrom, that's a bit of a gray area. We don't know what's going on with Ike yet, so if the series completion theory is true, and we get Chrom before Ike, then logically, Ike is cut already. I hope this isn't the case.

All I know is, that there probably won't be more than 2 characters revealed a month. Hoping for more than that is wishful thinking. E3 may give us a few vets, but I can logically guarantee that we'll get at least a few newcomers. Probably heavy hitters, like Ridley, Mewtwo...

Once Yoshi is out of the way this month, it's essentially a crap shoot in regards to who gets revealed when. There aren't any releases coming up, so the reveals will be random. We may get a 2nd Veteran this month, and then another Vet and one Newcomer next month. That's a bit to consider.

 

[Snagrio]

The thing is, Yoshi probably isn't guaranteed either (in terms of reveal schedule). There have already been multiple instances where everyone was certain that X character was going to be shown on X day, only for someone entirely different to appear, or even nothing at all.

In other words, the seemingly obvious predictions, more often then not, have not come to pass.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Yeah, for all we know, Yoshi may not be revealed at all until Japan gets Yoshi's New Island, which won't be until this summer.

 

[Curious Villager]

Yeah I was just about to ask why everyone is so very confident that we will be seeing Yoshi this week.

Honestly, I have this feeling that we won't be seeing him until the Japanese release of Yoshi's New Island. I guess they just gave Diddy Kong the Western release because the Japanese release was already taken for Little Mac in the Direct that was coming out for him.

I think I'm just going to wait it out and see...

 

[Staarih]

Yeah, Yoshi this week is definitely not a lock, but I feel like he's still a pretty safe bet. I have high hopes for this week and hope for SOME character to be revealed: if we don't get Yoshi on Friday - maybe just some random veteran reveal, which could be any day in that case really. I think like a second character could be revealed around the 20th, that's when a lot of stuff appears to happen, be it game releases, anniversaries or whatnot. Of course a possible Direct or sorts would mix things up a little. But yeah, not much we can do other than wait!

 

[TumblrFamous]

It is certainly possible that they save Yoshi in the summer for the Japanese release. I just think there is a good chance for Yoshi this Friday.

Even if they save Yoshi, I still kinda expect a reveal this week, either Thursday or Friday. I don't know why, but I have a strange feeling we'll be seeing someone, Yoshi or not. I just think Yoshi would be the best reveal this week. (Pokemon for Battle Trozei, perhaps?)

 

[Curious Villager]

I think we probably will be seeing another character reveal this or next week too. I'm just not sure if said character reveal will be Yoshi though...

 

[UltimateWario]

Do you think Yoshi will be the same as he was before with the reveal, or do you think he'll have significant changes to warrant this fairly unprecedented delay? Yoshi seems like he'd be a fairly early character to show off.

EDIT: No, I didn't mean Baby Mario. I mean an entirely revamped/re-imagined moveset.

 

[AncientTobacco]

Do you think Yoshi will be the same as he was before with the reveal, or do you think he'll have significant changes to warrant this fairly unprecedented delay? Yoshi seems like he'd be a fairly early character to show off.

No, he's not going to have Baby Mario.

Hopefully.

 

[TumblrFamous]

I don't think Yoshi being revealed late means anything. I think he might get some updates but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

If we get Palutena or K.Rool, it could very well be argued that the series completion theory is true. If we see any of K.Rooll/Palutena revealed next month, or a series getting a big push in terms of vet reveals, we might be getting something from them. This would mean Pokemon in the most potent case.

I wouldn't put any money on the series completion theory until we see a second example of it. Correct me if I'm wrong, but all we've seen so far is Rosalina for Mario.

But like everyone else, here, I see Yoshi being revealed Friday. Though I can also see Sakurai giving us the middle finger.
Considering there are no other veterans that really stick out, we may very well not get one, unless it is completely random.
All other veterans have had some obvious reason for being revealed, except Marth and Lucario who were random (though I may be wrong on Marth) and I don't think we've seen any for an anniversary yet.
From what we've seen, veterans are for releases, and newcomer can be for both (Villager and Rosalina for releases, Little Mac for anniversary).

Maybe Snake......
Just maybe

 

[AncientTobacco]

except Marth and Lucario who were random (though I may be wrong on Marth) and I don't think we've seen any for an anniversary yet.

Lucario was for the anniversary of Brawl.

 

[Snagrio]

Hmm, that Lumiose City stage revealed today makes me wonder. Pokémon Battle Trozei (Poemon Battle Link in EU) is coming out this week, so perhaps we'll actually see a Pokemon instead. Jiggs? Or PT?

 

[Kon]

I wouldn't put any money on the series completion theory until we see a second example of it. Correct me if I'm wrong, but all we've seen so far is Rosalina for Mario.

Of course you can say we only have one case yet related to this theory. But on the other side: Why reveal ALL Super Mario veterans before the reveal of Rosalina? At that time, there was a huge series balance problem. I mean you get 4 Super Mario characters confirmed while other big series still only have not that many confirmed characters. (even now Pokémon still is in a situation where the series is still underrepresented without any doubt) You can't deny it's still suspicious. Therefore I wouldn't ignore the theory completely neither. This is also the reason why I still keep this theory in mind and argue this way. We try to predict character reveals, right? The only way to predict characters is 1) random guesses while hoping to have a lucky hand at this or 2) to try and find out any pattern that might work before predicting.

It's like the theory 1-2 character reveals per month. This worked for the last year while I feel like this year the rythm has changed giving us at least 2 characters. Still this thread should work on theories and patterns to be able to predict reveals.

 

[Shroob]

The completed series theory both excites me and terrifies me, because if it ends up being the case, we'll be able to guess cut characters from certain franchises before we even see the final roster. I'm really, really hoping that in the months leading up to E3, and maybe in the months after, we see some gray area characters like Ike and Lucas who everyone considers are down for the count.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Of course you can say we only have one case yet related to this theory. But on the other side: Why reveal ALL Super Mario veterans before the reveal of Rosalina? At that time, there was a huge series balance problem. I mean you get 4 Super Mario characters confirmed while other big series still only have not that many confirmed characters. (even now Pokémon still is in a situation where the series is still underrepresented without any doubt) You can't deny it's still suspicious. Therefore I wouldn't ignore the theory completely neither. This is also the reason why I still keep this theory in mind and argue this way. We try to predict character reveals, right? The only way to predict characters is 1) random guesses while hoping to have a lucky hand at this or 2) to try and find out any pattern that might work before predicting.

Yeah, I wouldn't completely ignore it's
I was just pointing out we only have one example (though it is a pretty big example) so it should be taken with a grain of salt.

It's like the theory 1-2 character reveals per month. This worked for the last year while I feel like this year the rythm has changed giving us at least 2 characters. Still this thread should work on theories and patterns to be able to predict reveals.

So the pace started to go faster as the ending time is closer?
That sounds oddly like a Mario level, were it goes faster once you reach 100 seconds left.

 

[Wario Bros.]

This is a shot in the dark but I noticed one person (can't remember who) thinks there's a pattern brewing: the monthly downloadable games you can get as prizes on North American Club Nintendo.

On the list of February games, game included Super Mario RPG Legend of the Seven Stars, Art Style: PiCTOBITS, but the main kickers are Punch-Out!! Featuring Mr. Dream (Little Mac was announced on February), and Donkey Kong Jr. (Diddy Kong was announced in February).

This month includes Number Battle, Bonsai Barber, NES Yoshi (Yoshi's New Island is just around the corner), and Kid Icarus: of Myths and Monsters (a Kid Icarus character?)

Advertising strategy or lucky coincidence?

 

[FalKoopa]

Err... Can someone fill me in on the series completion theory? Or link me to the post?

 

[Snagrio]

Err... Can someone fill me in on the series completion theory? Or link me to the post?

Basically the theory is that all veterans of a franchise are shown before a newcomer also belonging to said franchise appears. The only example we have so far is the Mario series with Rosalina though.

 

[FalKoopa]

Basically the theory is that all veterans of a franchise are shown before a newcomer also belonging to said franchise appears. The only example we have so far is the Mario series with Rosalina though.

I see. I kind of believe it personally.

Going by the theory, we're probably not getting a pokémon newcomer, and Mewtwo will be treated as a veteran. We'll see though.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Hmm, we'll have to see, but I personally think Chrom will be revealed first for promotion, while Ike is a secret character.

 

[ToothiestAura]

As for this series completion theory, it seems unlikely that Sakurai would restrict himself by some arbitrary rules of character reveals. Sakurai does what he wants. The Mario series may have gotten all of it's reps announced first, but that may be a coincidence. Yes, even though the Mario series had and has the most character reveals. It's Mario. Of course it gets precedence with reveals. Another problem that stems from this theory is that of Secret Characters. We don't know if secret characters will even be a thing, but even so when exactly a series reaches full representation will be difficult to determine if secret characters are present.

I say, don't rule it out. But it's mostly meaningless.

On another note, series with only rep shouldn't count toward the full representation theory (Like Kid Icarus, Pikmin, F-Zero). That's like saying Punch Out!! had reached full representation (no one) before Little Mac was revealed. That true, but it's also stupid.

 

[egaddmario]

On another note, series with only rep shouldn't count toward the full representation theory (Like Kid Icarus, Pikmin, F-Zero). That's like saying Punch Out!! had reached full representation (no one) before Little Mac was revealed. That true, but it's also stupid.

But they would count- if there's only been Pit before, his series is done, so he could get a new rep. Also, the fact that "Kid Icarus" was along side Super Mario, Zelda, Kirby, Metroid, Starfox, DK, and Pokemon speaks volumes to me. I think that alone is great evidence of the Palutena leak.

 

[Snagrio]

There's also the difference between secret and unlockable. Unless unlockable characters don't exist in SSB4, which is beyond doubtful, I imagine the likes of Toon Link or Lucario (among others) won't be in the starting roster. So it might be possible that Sakurai will show the entire roster before launch. But if not then obviously there will be some kept hidden.

 

[ToothiestAura]

But they would count- if there's only been Pit before, his series is done, so he could get a new rep. Also, the fact that "Kid Icarus" was along side Super Mario, Zelda, Kirby, Metroid, Starfox, DK, and Pokemon speaks volumes to me. I think that alone is great evidence of the Palutena leak.

I mean it would seem dumb to count them as backing for theory if they were to get a new rep. "Full representation" should not refer to one character franchises, but to those franchises that have several reps.

 

[egaddmario]

There's also the difference between secret and unlockable. Unless unlockable characters don't exist in SSB4, which is beyond doubtful, I imagine the likes of Toon Link or Lucario (among others) won't be in the starting roster. So it might be possible that Sakurai will show the entire roster before launch. But if not then obviously there will be some kept hidden.

I would hope there are unlockables. I would love to see the whole roster and then still have unlockables. I spoiled the Brawl roster for myself when it leaked in late January, so it doesn't matter to me. Just adds to the hype.

 

[Kon]

We approach the middle of the week and I feel like this week we'll have a reveal.

Theoretically, no Yoshi reveal would mean a Pokémon reveal were still a possibility.

Wario could perhaps be revealed on March 20th for the japanese Mario Party Island Tour release.

I felt pretty sure about Yoshi but thinking more and more about it, most of the time Sakurai used japanese release dates to reveal veterans. Also there is this possibility of a Nintendo Direct this week and if Nintendo were to announce the Year of Yoshi, Yoshi would even make more sense to be revealed.

After all I would be disappointed if there were no character reveal at all this week.

 

[TumblrFamous]

If Sakurai doesn't want to reveal Yoshi yet, I think it is also possible to see a Pokemon Rep tomorrow for Trozei.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I still think Yoshi is the safest assumption. Hey, it makes too much sense!

 

[Glaciacott]

Regarding the whole series completion theory, I think people are overlooking the practical end of things.

Personally, it seems to me like for Rosalina it was necessary to reveal all the Mario characters in advance since they all featured in the reveal trailer during the rainbow road scene. Given the quality of the trailers, it's not unlikely that they're done considerably in advance. So it's not like Sakurai has some arbitrary rule, but simply the desire to have characters revealed so that players know of their presence before their appearance in a newcomer's video.
Sadly, it's hard to detect a patern since. for Little Mac, the only character to feature in his trailer was Samus, and she was one of the original reveals.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

If Sakurai doesn't want to reveal Yoshi yet, I think it is also possible to see a Pokemon Rep tomorrow for Trozei.

Trozei doesn't come out this week it's the 20th

 

[Shroob]

Trozei doesn't come out this week it's the 20th

Wrong, it's out today in Japan, so the 12th. Don't believe me? Check Serebii.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Wrong, it's out today in Japan, so the 12th. Don't believe me? Check Serebii.

ok tomorrow is when its release in JAPAN so will we get a pokemon character for a eshop game doubtful (he could do the same spin with diddy kong do the usa release date area instead of japan due to the direct for mac/ in this case this week for Yoshi and the pokemon character for next week)

 

[Knight Dude]

When's Yoshi's newest game coming out again? 3/14/14? I wonder if we'll get it right again. We did pretty good with guessing Zelda, and Dedede. To a lesser extent we even did a good job guessing Diddy Kong as well. Yet I still can't think of anyone being shown in April. I don't think any major anniversaries are coming up. So it could be a random reveal. Or nothing, but we haven't had a month like that yet.

 

[ToothiestAura]

When's Yoshi's newest game coming out again? 3/14/14? I wonder if we'll get it right again. We did pretty good with guessing Zelda, and Dedede. To a lesser extent we even did a good job guessing Diddy Kong as well. Yet I still can't think of anyone being shown in April. I don't think any major anniversaries are coming up. So it could be a random reveal. Or nothing, but we haven't had a month like that yet.

April has the two year release anniversary of Fire Emblem Awakening (which released on April 19th, 2012 in Japan). Sort of major.