How can we predict reveals?

[Knight Dude]

April has the two year release anniversary of Fire Emblem Awakening (which released on April 19th, 2012 in Japan). Sort of major.

That so? Well that should be interesting. Maybe if Sakurai cares enough about that he'll show Ike. Or another Fire Emblem related character. It's usually new game releases and general series anniversaries that we tend to pay attention to. But I suppose that Awakening is the most succesful of the series so far. So some might feel that it's worth celebrating in some fashion.

 

[Staarih]

Apparently April has a lot of anniversaries (Mother 3, Fire Emblem, Kirby & Game & Watch) and also the release of NES Remix 2 + a whole lot of GBA titles for Wii U Virtual Console. That's also a month when people are expecting an international Direct - thus a newcomer reveal. If I were to guess what two characters we get in April, I would probably choose Lucas or Ice Climbers (or random veteran) and then a new Fire Emblem -character (Chrom). Little Mac was revealed around the time of Punch-Out's anniversary, so out of the anniversaries in April, Fire Emblem is the only one who will most likely have a new character. But surely it could be someone random as well, not sure on any non-represented game franchises and their releases/anniversaries.

But anyway, April is still pretty far away. However, it is interesting to see how many option we might have each month. Let's see how this month goes and if Sakurai throws a curveball or not. Luckily we'll find it out soon enough.

 

[Knight Dude]

Well, if there's a direct showing up, Then I might have some more confidence on a new character showing up. Given that it'd around the since the last two newcomers. Each of them were shown two months apart. While Sonic, a third party was given a trailer two months before that.

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Apparently April has a lot of anniversaries (Mother 3, Fire Emblem, Nazo no Murasame-Jo, Kirby & Game & Watch) and also the release of NES Remix 2 + a whole lot of GBA titles for Wii U Virtual Console. That's also a month when people are expecting an international Direct - thus a newcomer reveal. If I were to guess what two characters we get in April, I would probably choose Lucas or Ice Climbers (or random veteran) and then a new Fire Emblem -character (Chrom). Little Mac was revealed around the time of Punch-Out's anniversary, so out of the anniversaries in April, Fire Emblem is the only one who will most likely have a new character. But surely it could be someone random as well, not sure on any non-represented game franchises and their releases/anniversaries.

But anyway, April is still pretty far away. However, it is interesting to see how many option we might have each month. Let's see how this month goes and if Sakurai throws a curveball or not. Luckily we'll find it out soon enough.

Just added something else slightly important for April anniversaries.

 

[Zhadgon]

Well in the Nintendo Direct of April we need to put attention in who will tweet about it, for example if Intelligent Systems tweet it then we can sure expect a Fire Emblem new comer, instead we get a tweet from Monolith Soft we can predict it will be Shulk maybe as the new comer, then if is Retro maybe a DK character or a Metroid character or maybe if is from Team Ninja we can get Ridley or Other M character, now if is from Game Freak we can expect a Pokemon New comer, so it depends who tweet´s from that Nintendo Direct that we can predict a possible new comer from that series.
.n_n.

 

[Snagrio]

Well in the Nintendo Direct of April we need to put attention in who will tweet about it, for example if Intelligent Systems tweet it then we can sure expect a Fire Emblem new comer, instead we get a tweet from Monolith Soft we can predict it will be Shulk maybe as the new comer, then if is Retro maybe a DK character or a Metroid character or maybe if is from Team Ninja we can get Ridley or Other M character, now if is from Game Freak we can expect a Pokemon New comer, so it depends who tweet´s from that Nintendo Direct that we can predict a possible new comer from that series.
.n_n.

Unless of course several of them tweet for the same Direct like last time, thereby making it harder to guess.

 

[Zhadgon]

Unless of course several of them tweet for the same Direct like last time, thereby making it harder to guess.

It can happen but there is something that can tell us who will be the character reveal, which of those companies dosen´t have a game to show for this year for example if IS did announce a tweet to watch the Nintendo Direct it could tell us that Chrom, Lucina, Robin, Roy, Lyn or Anna can be expected, why? Because right now IS dosen´t have anything to show, no new Fire Emblem or Wars series (that can happen in E3 if they announce something with those franchises), the only one could be Fire Emblem X Shin Megami Tensei but I believe that is developed by Atlus.

Now for example if Camelot did tweet about it, could mean Isaac from Golden Sun because right now there is not announce for a new Golden Sun game, so we should watch carefully which of this developers dosen´t have nothing to announce but will tweet about it, I believe that tell us which new comer could happen, the only rule that can break this pattern is Kid Icarus or something developed by the main Nintendo branch (Mario, Miis, Zelda or Retro Character).

.n_n.

 

[Deleted member]

I think that it will be easier to tell in April who could be revealed.
Didn't Next Level Games Tweet about the Nintendo Direct as well? They didn't show anything off, they made Punch Out!! for the Wii, and Little Mac got confirmed in the Nintendo Direct. I see that if key-developers of a game make a Tweet, then we can make an assumption as to who could get confirmed. This could be easy with Intelligent Systems (Fire Emblem), Retro Studios (Donkey Kong Country Returns, Metroid Prime), or Team Ninja (Metroid: Other M) as I doubt these companies would have a game ready for the Direct. It's more difficult to say that we will get a character like Shulk or Isaac when their companies are working on another game (Monolith has X while Camelot has Mario Golf, thus they can show footage from those games), a character like Bandana Dee whose game isn't released yet (HAL still hasn't released Kirby Triple Deluxe yet in the US, so HAL might show off more of that game), or a character that doesn't come from a specific first or second party or was part of a game made by a specific first or second party (like Rosalina).

 

[ToothiestAura]

So, Yoshi Friday and a Pokemon Vet (Jigglypuff) on the 20th for the American release of Pokemon Battle Trozei?
It's probably a bit silly to expect two American release character updates since there's only been one, but what else is there this month? It could always be two random characters. (Or one. Or, goddess forbid, none. )

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Wario: Hey, don't forget about my WarioWare, Inc. anniversary now!

 

[ToothiestAura]

Right, Wario.

On another note, predicting strictly based on what companies tweet about the direct may not work. Because the direct also shows off new games (that they could be announcing in said direct). But it can work, we just have to sift through the companies that tweet and find one with a likely character.
Also, they generally tweet about it a day in advance. There's something lame about predicting only a day ahead.

 

[Deleted member]

So, Yoshi Friday and a Pokemon Vet (Jigglypuff) on the 20th for the American release of Pokemon Battle Trozei?
It's probably a bit silly to expect two American release character updates since there's only been one, but what else is there this month? It could always be two random characters. (Or one. Or, goddess forbid, none. )

I find it more likely that we will get Yoshi Friday than a Pokemon character next week for Pokemon Battle Trozei. Since this is an American release, I am a bit skeptical on Yoshi. Pokemon Battle Trozei will probably not get a reveal in my eyes; it's not a major game like Super Mario 3D World or Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze to be given a reveal.

Wario: Hey, don't forget about my WarioWare, Inc. anniversary now!

This better happen or I'll be all sorts of disappointed. I am a bit skeptical on this as well, but I want Wario to get confirmed so badly! He was my most wanted newcomer prior to E3 2006!

 

[Snagrio]

The only other thing I can think of is Palutena for Uprising's 2nd anniversary. But it's pretty much set in stone that newcomers are only revealed in international Directs, and those are bimonthly, thus debunking such a possibility.

That is unless Sakurai bucks the trend for no reason.

 

[The Light Music Club]

Banner is down, and a Pokemon stage revealed earlier this week. I'm thinkin' Jigglypuff comes tomorrow. But if not a Pokemon Trainer or Mewtwo for sure.

 

[Wario Bros.]

Banner is down, and a Pokemon stage revealed earlier this week. I'm thinkin' Jigglypuff comes tomorrow. But if not a Pokemon Trainer or Mewtwo for sure.

The banner has been down since March 3rd. I have big doubts for a Pokémon reveal tomorrow.

 

[ToothiestAura]

Banner is down, and a Pokemon stage revealed earlier this week. I'm thinkin' Jigglypuff comes tomorrow. But if not a Pokemon Trainer or Mewtwo for sure.

Tomorrow? For the European release of Pokemon Battle Trozei? Interesting. We haven't had that happen yet, so it would be a great way for Sakurai to **** with us.

 

[Snagrio]

I'm 50/50 on Yoshi being revealed tomorrow. I hope he is though given how long it's been and the fact that he's one of the original 12 (in fact all of the starting 8 have been known since the first trailer except for him).

 

[AncientTobacco]

Banner is down, and a Pokemon stage revealed earlier this week. I'm thinkin' Jigglypuff comes tomorrow. But if not a Pokemon Trainer or Mewtwo for sure.

The banner means nothing.

 

[The Light Music Club]

Tomorrow? For the European release of Pokemon Battle Trozei? Interesting. We haven't had that happen yet, so it would be a great way for Sakurai to **** with us.

Oh it was the European release? I thought it was the Japan one. Hahaha.

 

[egaddmario]

I'm 50/50 on Yoshi being revealed tomorrow. I hope he is though given how long it's been and the fact that he's one of the original 12 (in fact all of the starting 8 have been known since the first trailer except for him).

I hope the reason it's taking so long is a huge over-haul in his moveset. I just hate his lack of recovery, especially after footstooling was implemented.

 

[Vann Accessible]

I'll call it.

Tonight. Yoshi.

Hand Bananah reference. Teehee.

 

[ToothiestAura]

Oh it was the European release? I thought it was the Japan one. Hahaha.

That was March 12th. We can still hold on to the 20th, at least.

 

[Deleted member]

I won't totally expect Yoshi tomorrow. It could happen, it might not. I would love to see him get confirmed tomorrow since he does need some love in this game. His absence right now is a bit disturbing.

 

[Curious Villager]

I hope for the sanity of everyone that we get Yoshi tomorrow... If not him then at least another veteran.

If Sakurai wants to continue the trend of revealing two characters every month that he started since December then I guess we can expect a veteran reveal tomorrow, whether it's Yoshi or a random veteran reveal. Then I guess we can expect another either next week or the week after. Assuming he continues the double reveals trend every month, which I don't see any reason why he would break it now...

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I think it's about time we get somebody. It's been awhile since Diddy.

I'm expecting Yoshi tomorrow if I'm being honest. It's been awhile since we got our last character, and the release of Yoshi's New Island only makes it more obvious. If Yoshi is revealed, then I think we might get a character on the last day of the month.

Anyway, hopefully Yoshi tomorrow. Get him out of the way Sakurai.

 

[Oblivion129]

I'm expecting Yoshi for sure. Maaybe Ike or Wario but I'll bet on Yoshi first.

 

[zachmundell]

I feel like Yoshi *should* be revealed tomorrow...I mean, why else would he not be revealed by now?! That's the only reason I can think of for him not being revealed, that they were saving it for Yoshi's New Island promo.

 

[Oz37]

I want Yoshi tomorrow! But Sakurai isn't always known for meeting expectations... so I dunno what'll happen...

 

[Aurora Jenny]

Guys? I just noticed something very interesting when talking with SSB4Dojo. He wondered if Yoshi would be revealed with a stage. I mentioned I coudln't be sure, but since Yoshi is the only veteran in his franchise, he might just be. Then I stopped and thought about it. We've had a stage shown with every Newcomer, Smashville with AC Villager, Wily's Castle with Megaman, Gateway Galaxy was right on top of Rosalina, The Fitness Room for WFT, and of course the WVBA Ring wasn't properly shown till Little Mac.

Bear with me. We didn't get any new Mario Stages till Rosey, but both Olimar and Sonic showed up with stages. It's a slim chance that we should pay attention to stages that are teased. While I can't be sure about Zelda, DK is suspect in this as with Diddy completing it, we should have gotten a stage with him. See what I'm saying? It's a very potential pattern and I could be proven right if we see Yoshi AND a stage.

 

[Simensis]

Guys? I just noticed something very interesting when talking with SSB4Dojo. He wondered if Yoshi would be revealed with a stage. I mentioned I coudln't be sure, but since Yoshi is the only veteran in his franchise, he might just be. Then I stopped and thought about it. We've had a stage shown with every Newcomer, Smashville with AC Villager, Wily's Castle with Megaman, Gateway Galaxy was right on top of Rosalina, The Fitness Room for WFT, and of course the WVBA Ring wasn't properly shown till Little Mac.

Bear with me. We didn't get any new Mario Stages till Rosey, but both Olimar and Sonic showed up with stages. It's a slim chance that we should pay attention to stages that are teased. While I can't be sure about Zelda, DK is suspect in this as with Diddy completing it, we should have gotten a stage with him. See what I'm saying? It's a very potential pattern and I could be proven right if we see Yoshi AND a stage.

I pretty much like that theory. There has been some talk about Pyrosphere and Wuhu Island pointing to Ridley and Mii.
I remember that before Little Mac the ring was also counted with those and look what happened!
It would be very interesting if Yoshi indeed turned out with a stage as well.

 

[Aurora Jenny]

I pretty much like that theory. There has been some talk about Pyrosphere and Wuhu Island pointing to Ridley and Mii.
I remember that before Little Mac the ring was also counted with those and look what happened!
It would be very interesting if Yoshi indeed turned out with a stage as well.

Far as Mii goes, the Castle of Darkness Roof also counts. Palutena as well with her Temple.

 

[Simensis]

Far as Mii goes, the Castle of Darkness Roof also counts. Palutena as well with her Temple.

Totally forgot about Palutena! And yes, I think Sakurai is hinting new characters with the stages. At least I like to think that.

 

[ToothiestAura]

Fire Emblem had Arena Ferox shown before Marth's reveal. Also, the Spirit Tracks stage was revealed before Toon Link. So, there may be something to this theory. But I doubt it.
As for Newcomer stages:
We got a 6th Gen pokemon stage a few days ago.

 

[Aurora Jenny]

Never said it was a solid theory.

 

[Wario Bros.]

Japan release date it is!

 

[Curious Villager]

I hope for the sanity of everyone that we get Yoshi tomorrow... If not him then at least another veteran.

Welp, not that I'm all that much surprised with no Yoshi but yeah, by looking at the Miiverse thread, some people have gone a little haywire today, not to mention the lack of sleep for the US at least.... especially with the potential boost to Mii's chances on top of that........... Not that they were overly unlikely to begin with...

Eh well, I guess there is at least a new thing we can take from this.

Western game based reveals are definitely very unlikely of happening.... unless, like with Diddy Kong, their Japanese reveals gets passed over for any reason, then I guess seeing said character on a Western release (if it comes afterwards) becomes more likely of happening. However, we only have one piece of evidence supporting this so we might need to wait for a few more similar reveals in order to support this claim...

 

[YoshiandToad]

Flipping over tables now.

When's the Japanese release again?

 

[Curious Villager]

Flipping over tables now.

When's the Japanese release again?

This summer, as far as I remember. I don't think it has a set release yet though.

 

[Groose]

I think that today's (non)reveal means two primary things:

1) Japanese dates only.
I had previously thought American/European release dates could happen on special circumstances. Now, it's clear that we need more reasoning than "release drought + Japanese game not dated;" Diddy's reveal was very special because of the Nintendo Direct on Tropical Freeze's Japanese date and because of the proximity of the American and Japanese launches, and because Donkey Kong is usually seen as the Western Platformer.

2) Two characters a month isn't requisite.
I still think it's likely that we see two characters a month from here on out, as that would best continue the hype. However, I can definitely see a couple months of one character per month, providded those months are filled with other exciting content (LOOK AT DEM STAGE REVEALS!)

Although I was pretty confident in Yoshi, his no-show doesn't really shake my predictions much.

 

[HeroG]

Maybe this is a fakeout?