How can we predict reveals?

[ZeldaMaster]

Because Kojima supported another struggling console.

The 3DS.

Yes, but that remake seemed so half-***ed that nobody, not even Kojima and Konami, seemed to care. It's just kind of there... without any fanfare or anything. MGS V, on the other hand, is a hotly anticipated title that many gamers are excited for. Why should Nintendo miss out on that excitement and hype? Snake's recent resume doesn't seem ideal for him to star alongside giants such as Sonic and Megaman.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Yes, but that remake seemed so half-***ed that nobody, not even Kojima and Konami, seemed to care. It's just kind of there... without any fanfare or anything. MGS V, on the other hand, is a hotly anticipated title that many gamers are excited for. Why should Nintendo miss out on that excitement and hype? Snake's recent resume doesn't seem ideal for him to star alongside giants such as Sonic and Megaman.

It was just as unimpressive when he got into Brawl.

Didn't stop him then.

 

[UltimateWario]

If Snake returns, it's not going to be for any other reason than that he was in Brawl. People should really stop arguing about whether or not he deserves to be in, or how "relevant" he is to Nintendo, because he's already passed those tests because of Kojima's request and will return solely on his tenure. Tenure is a saving grace to, undoubtedly, the most irrelevant character in Smash, Jigglypuff, so if it can keep her in, it'll keep Snake in.

That's not to say that he is, without a doubt, returning, because I'm not sure, myself.

 

[ToothiestAura]

Because Kojima supported another struggling console.

The 3DS.

It is a fair point. Sakurai could just point to the 3DS game, it doesn't have to be current.

I mean Marth's page has him supporting Awakening, a game that is almost two years old now.
But wait! What's that you say? It's still the most recent FE title? Well, go to Marth's Japanese character page and you'll see he's supporting Heroes of Light and Shadow, the FE game that came out before Awakening (Japan only). There goes the whole, it needs to support a current game theory.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

It is a fair point. Sakurai could just point to the 3DS game, it doesn't have to be current.

I mean Marth's page has him supporting Awakening, a game that is almost two years old now.
But wait! What's that you say? It's still the most recent FE title? Well, go to Marth's Japanese character page and you'll see he's supporting Heroes of Light and Shadow, the FE game that came out before Awakening (Japan only). There goes the whole, it needs to support a current game theory.

Not to mention Little Mac supporting Punch Out!! Wii.

 

[Dropkick JD]

April: King K.Rool, Sheik, or Tetra get revealed.

Why? Cause dats my birthday month, and I get what I want. April 8th, you heard it here folks.

If Chrom, Impa, or Dixie get revealed, I'll cry. Take note Sakurai.

 

[Staarih]

That Snake talk is really making me expect him next month, but in that case he'd probably deserve a video or something like Sonic, so we'll see how it's executed (if at all).

 

[Curious Villager]

April: King K.Rool, Sheik, or Tetra get revealed.

Why? Cause dats my birthday month, and I get what I want. April 8th, you heard it here folks.

If Chrom, Impa, or Dixie get revealed, I'll cry. Take note Sakurai.

Oh, that's the same birthday as me.

I hope a character I'd like to see shows up in April too. Mewtwo please......................

 

[Dropkick JD]

Oh, that's the same birthday as me.

I hope a character I'd like to see shows up in April too. Mewtwo please......................

April 8th?

Alright, so we can have Mewtwo and Tetra get revealed at the same time.

 

[Curious Villager]

April 8th?

Alright, so we can have Mewtwo and Tetra get revealed at the same time.

Yup.

Lol I'm all for that. K. Rool would be cool too. c:

 

[False Sense]

April 8th?

Alright, so we can have Mewtwo and Tetra get revealed at the same time.

Actually, that does bring up a point I wanted to discuss. Does anyone suppose that as we get closer to the game's release, we might get more newcomers over certain periods of time? At the moment, it seems to be one newcomer for every direct. In other words, every two months. Is it within the realm of possibility that they may speed this up as time goes on? Perhaps by revealing a newcomer every individual month, or perhaps revealing two newcomers simultaneously in one direct? Of course, this is all unprecedented, so we don't have much to go on, but seeing as how character reveals have become more and more frequent over time, it makes me think that a similar thing could happen with newcomers.

 

[Dropkick JD]

Actually, that does bring up a point I wanted to discuss. Does anyone suppose that as we get closer to the game's release, we might get more newcomers over certain periods of time? At the moment, it seems to be one newcomer for every direct. In other words, every two months. Is it within the realm of possibility that they may speed this up as time goes on? Perhaps by revealing a newcomer every individual month, or perhaps revealing two newcomers simultaneously in one direct? Of course, this is all unprecedented, so we don't have much to go on, but seeing as how character reveals have become more and more frequent over time, it makes me think that a similar thing could happen with newcomers.

Wouldn't mind it, and I'd imagine they'd have to at some point.

The game is coming out early next year, right? Each two months to reveal only one newcomer, is kinda pushing it. Unless they don't plan on that many newcomers. Or they just plan on setting the release date until mid-time next year. Which would beyond suck.

 

[False Sense]

Wouldn't mind it, and I'd imagine they'd have to at some point.

The game is coming out early next year, right? Each two months to reveal only one newcomer, is kinda pushing it. Unless they don't plan on that many newcomers. Or they just plan on setting the release date until mid-time next year. Which would beyond suck.

Actually, the game is supposed to come out THIS year.

 

[Dropkick JD]

Actually, the game is supposed to come out THIS year.

I thought it was delayed till next year?

 

[Curious Villager]

I thought it was delayed till next year?

Nope, the intended release is this year. Sakurai even made a new years resolution in order to further make that point.

 

[False Sense]

I thought it was delayed till next year?

Hmm? Now where did you hear that?

...Have I missed out on something important?

Edit: Hey look, Professor Layton avatars.

 

[Dropkick JD]

Oh. No, you didn't miss anything. Apparently I'm just wrong and I could have sworn I read something that let me down that said it wasn't going to be out this year.

Well. I learned something today.

 

[Curious Villager]

Oh. No, you didn't miss anything. Apparently I'm just wrong and I could have sworn I read something that let me down that said it wasn't going to be out this year.

Well. I learned something today.

Perhaps you read an outdated article from last year and mistook it to meaning that the game will be out next year? Maybe?

 

[Dropkick JD]

Perhaps you read an outdated article from last year and mistook it to meaning that the game will be out next year? Maybe?

That's actually a really good possibility.

 

[stan423321]

Is it a good idea to bet a broken cent on something Metroid-related on March 19th? I mean, it's an anniversary stackload, Wednesday, and end of Year of Luigi on top of that, but I still doubt Year Of Not Luigi will be Metroid related...

 

[ToothiestAura]

Actually, that does bring up a point I wanted to discuss. Does anyone suppose that as we get closer to the game's release, we might get more newcomers over certain periods of time? At the moment, it seems to be one newcomer for every direct. In other words, every two months. Is it within the realm of possibility that they may speed this up as time goes on? Perhaps by revealing a newcomer every individual month, or perhaps revealing two newcomers simultaneously in one direct? Of course, this is all unprecedented, so we don't have much to go on, but seeing as how character reveals have become more and more frequent over time, it makes me think that a similar thing could happen with newcomers.

I mentioned something along these lines a little while ago. It was more along the lines of starting to see even more Veteran reveals though, since there are a lot of vets yet to be revealed and two a month would carry us to December (and most of us believe the game will be out before then).
I think seeing more newcomers is a distinct possibility when we're coming down to the game's release. It would be a smart move on Sakurai's part to reveal a bunch of newcomers in the time leading directly up to the game's release. That would cause a hype overload, unlike how spaced on out our hype is now.
I also think it depends on how many newcomers are intended to be revealed at E3: some think it will be a few. If it is a few we can expect less newcomers in the interim time. If it's only one, we can then expect more newcomers in the interim.

 

[DMurr]

Well.. For Brawl, Sakurai saved about a third of the characters as secret characters. Let's assume that Sakurai will follow a similar pattern to the Brawl roster. About a third of that roster was revealed post-release as secret characters. If we're guessing about 45 characters, that's 30 pre-release characters and 15 post release. We already have 24 characters, so that's only 6 left before release. It's still only February. If we guess that this game comes out late summer, early fall.. that's a character per month until September. So.. I'm not sure that we'll be getting two vets a month anytime soon.

If our theory is actually that he'll reveal (almost?) the full roster before release based on his comments before, then throw this all out the window.

 

[SmasherMaster]

No our April reveal will be Pichu, Goku, Shrek and Miley Cyrus, on the first day.



Only to have Captain Falcon punch them all far away.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

No our April reveal will be Pichu, Goku, Shrek and Miley Cyrus, on the first day.



Only to have Captain Falcon punch them all far away.[/b]

one of these is not like the others
he is an actual video game character, he actually has a chance,

 

[Jumpman84]

I predict no more character reveals this month. March is a bit up in the air, though Yoshi is the strongest possibility.

 

[SuperBrawler]

No our April reveal will be Pichu, Goku, Shrek and Miley Cyrus, on the first day.



Only to have Captain Falcon punch them all far away.

Does this man want be dead or something?

 

[ToothiestAura]

Well.. For Brawl, Sakurai saved about a third of the characters as secret characters. Let's assume that Sakurai will follow a similar pattern to the Brawl roster. About a third of that roster was revealed post-release as secret characters. If we're guessing about 45 characters, that's 30 pre-release characters and 15 post release. We already have 24 characters, so that's only 6 left before release. It's still only February. If we guess that this game comes out late summer, early fall.. that's a character per month until September. So.. I'm not sure that we'll be getting two vets a month anytime soon.

If our theory is actually that he'll reveal (almost?) the full roster before release based on his comments before, then throw this all out the window.

My theory is based solely on the number of Veterans left to reveal. Captain Falcon, Falco, Ganondorf, Ice Climbers, Ike, Jigglypuff, Lucas, Meta Knight, Mr. Game & Watch, Ness, Pokemon Trainer, R.O.B., Sheik, Snake, Wario, Yoshi and Zero Suit Samus are yet to be revealed. Based on the current trend of revealing Vets that were previously secret characters (they may still be unlockable) we will get previously secret vets shown to us beforehand. Thus, 17 Vets. Even assuming 5 cuts we would have 6 months of reveals at 2 characters per month (Though with Toon Link returning, most cuts don't seem viable. The only one which makes sense at this point is Snake and only because he's a 3rd party.). So without cuts, that gives us 8 months of reveals at two a month with a remainder of one. Which would take us to October. Accounting for 1-2 newcomers being shown before the game comes out, I think that gets us reasonably to December.
I still suspect secret characters, it just seems Sakurai may be making more of the newcomers secret this time around based on him showing Marth, Luigi, Lucario and Toon Link already.

 

[UltimateWario]

There will only be one secret character.

On the character select screen, when first booting the game, the background will have a large "?" instead of the usual abstract imagery that usually makes up the background of Smash Menus. After beating Classic Mode with each character, in order from smallest (Olimar) to largest (Bowser), you will receive a CHALLENGER APPROACHING! message, at which point you will fight Ridley. If you manage to defeat him, you will unlock the true largest character in the roster, and the CSS background will be replaced with Ridley's massive character select slot.

 

[Banjodorf]

There will only be one secret character.

On the character select screen, when first booting the game, the background will have a large "?" instead of the usual abstract imagery that usually makes up the background of Smash Menus. After beating Classic Mode with each character, in order from smallest (Olimar) to largest (Bowser), you will receive a CHALLENGER APPROACHING! message, at which point you will fight Ridley. If you manage to defeat him, you will unlock the true largest character in the roster, and the CSS background will be replaced with Ridley's massive character select slot.

Y'know, it would actually be goddamn hilarious if Sakurai hid Ridley as the last secret character, like, from everyone, to troll the hell out of fans, and encourage leakers to say he's not there.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Do I really have to explain why Snake cannot simply be cut, or why he has earned his spot in Smash? AGAIN?!?

Sigh...alright. I'll do it.

First off, when Kojima asked Sakurai for the favor of adding Snake in Smash Bros., there were two reasons why.
1) Kojima's son wanted to be able to play as one of his father's creations
2) He wanted younger gamers to be introduced to MGS as a series.

So, as you can see, these are valid reasons. He didn't do it for money. He did it for his son, and for the industry he works in.

Moving onto Snake and if he actually meets the requirements of any 3rd Party character who is placed in Smash Bros.

1) Makes people want to play the game. *Self explanatory.
2) 3rd Party character must be legendary. MGS is the pinnacle of the stealth genre, and has been for years. It is a combination of the goofy antics in the games, the gripping storyline, and the voice acting of David Hayter (not Keifer Sutherland) that made Metal Gear Solid on the map. So that's a check mark there for Snake.
3) Has to have appeared on a Nintendo console. Snake, whilst not being a major Nintendo 3rd party, is a character who has appeared on the Gamecube, the Super Nintendo, and the 3DS. So yes, Snake DOES have history with Nintendo. Here is the important part. This does not have anything to do with the NUMBER of appearances. So Snake not having a good amount as Sonic or Mega Man is irrelevant

While Snake may have gotten in because of the favor, that is irrelevant. He has become a popular and historic Smash Bros character. He was the first 3rd party in the series. He has the credentials to get into Smash Bros. None of this matters now if it didn't matter to Sakurai the first time.

So why can't Snake simply be cut? Well, contracts exist. Sakurai can't cut Snake last minute, because once he agrees to it, he is obligated to do so. He can't go back to Kojima and be like, "OOPS MUH BAD. MAYBE NEXT TIME". **** move. These guys are good friends. He isn't going to just cut Snake. I'd be surprised if he isn't back.

It really isn't that hard to grasp.

 

[Chandeelure]

Do I really have to explain why Snake cannot simply be cut, or why he has earned his spot in Smash? AGAIN?!?

Not really...Oh, you did it...again.

 

[Deleted member]

Should we stop arguing about whether or not Snake will get added back into Smash?
Isn't the whole thread about predicting character reveals instead of predicting whether or not Snake will return?
Shouldn't these Snake topics go in the Snake thread in the Unconfirmed Veterans sub-board?
I say that we should just drop it.
EDIT: On the topic of Snake getting revealed, IF he does get confirmed, I bet that it would be in some Nintendo Direct. Sonic got confirmed in one.

 

[Snagrio]

It seems like there is rhyme and reason to revealings, then at other times there isn't. Usually a character, newcomer or otherwise, is announced for anniversaries or release dates of new games, but some characters just come from seemingly out of nowhere. Lucario, Marth, and Peach fit into this category.

Newcomers are the only ones remotely predictable since so far they have only been shown during Directs.

Bottom line is, at least when it comes to veterans, we can only predict that reveal patterns can be unpredictable.

 

[AncientTobacco]

It seems like there is rhyme and reason to revealings, then at other times there isn't. Usually a character, newcomer or otherwise, is announced for anniversaries or release dates of new games, but some characters just come from seemingly out of nowhere. Lucario, Marth, and Peach fit into this category.

Lucario doesn't really fit into that category, considering he was revealed for the anniversary of Brawl.

 

[IsmaR]

By that logic any character/newcomer in Brawl could have been shown for its anniversary. I think Snag meant more along the lines of "Why him? Why now?" rather than it lining up with a specific date.

 

[Snagrio]

By that logic any character/newcomer in Brawl could have been shown for its anniversary. I think Snag meant more along the lines of "Why him? Why now?" rather than it lining up with a specific date.

Exactly. Though Lucario is a favorite among the dev team which might explain why he in particular was chosen for that specific anniversary, but your statement still stands regardless.

 

[egaddmario]

So, doing some math, if no cuts, even if we had one veteran a week, that would bring us to May. Going by that, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume one veteran every two weeks, or two a month, is too much. This, of course, changes if there's a newcomer announced. I would be genuinely surprised if we got another veteran before the end of February. So, if two characters a month, we can assume 20 more characters (10 months X 2 chars), if December release, which would bring us up to 44 (the 24 already confirmed + the assumed 20), and assuming no cuts, means we'd need at least three months were we see three characters revealed, as Brawl had 37 (counting Pokemon Trainer as 1 because it's the same character and you NEED to switch). And that's assuming a December release. If it's earlier, then the frequency of characters will be higher. This would also assume ten newcomers, again, assuming no cuts, which might seem low, but again, these are only assumptions. I could also see 49 characters on the character select screen (not including transformations) and a random block for the 50th place. This would assume 12 newcomers, which is a tad more reasonable and falls in line with what we've seen in the past: 64 brought in the 12 originals, Melee added 14, Brawl added 15. Only time will tell, but the speculation sure is fun.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I'm standing by my "Series Completion" Theory until it's proven false.

Anyway, assuming we're getting a pattern of 1,2,1,2 for veterans every other month, then if we're getting a December release...we're getting a decent amount.

March: 2 vets
April: 1 vet. 1 Newcomer
May: 2 vets
June:??? E3. We have no idea what we're getting
July: lets just say 2
August: 1
September: 2
October: 1
November: 2
December: 1

So from what we know, we're getting at least 14 more vets. That's almost the entire roster. Pokemon Trainer counts as three, and we already have what...18 of the Brawl roster?

I feel like we're getting more than one character reveal at E3, which is why this is hard to predict. We might only get newcomers, we may get veterans. I can almost guarantee we'll get at least 2 newcomers.

 

[Jumpman84]

Personally, I think that we should count Pokemon Trainer as one vet for the purpose of reveals. It'd be a bit silly for Pokemon Trainer to be returning, but only showing one of his Pokemon. His newcomer debut in Brawl featured all three and his artwork contained all four of them as well.

...Then again, it'd be a complete troll move to only show one of them and make us all think that the other two were replaced...

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Personally, I think that we should count Pokemon Trainer as one vet for the purpose of reveals. It'd be a bit silly for Pokemon Trainer to be returning, but only showing one of his Pokemon. His newcomer debut in Brawl featured all three and his artwork contained all four of them as well.

...Then again, it'd be a complete troll move to only show one of them and make us all think that the other two were replaced...

I just meant for the purpose of the total roster. It would only be one veteran reveal, but it would be a 3 for 1 deal basically.