How can we predict reveals?

[YoshiandToad]

Diddy was revealed on a western date, eh?

Hopefully this means we'll get the inevitable Yoshi reveal next month.

I really don't want to wait until the Japanese release in Summer just for one of the most obvious reveals and the return of my favourite character. Tables will be flipped.

No sign of Dixie though, which makes me wonder if she was to be revealed when it'd be. Obviously Tropical Freeze was the prime time to introduce her, but including two Kongs in such a short space may seem excessive.

K. Rool as the most wanted newcomer in the world could easily be an E3 reveal. Not sure I can see Dixie being saved for that.

 

[stan423321]

The OP is updated with new information, including a brand new point! Tell me what you think!

Nice update. Dunno if you intentionally skipped Little Mac being unveiled on (rough?) anniversary of the first arcade Punch-Out release.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I wonder if the standard has become two characters a month? I mean, December had Rosalina and Zelda, January had Dedede and Lucario, and now February had Little Mac and Diddy Kong. That's 3 months in a row, the last single-character month was November with Marth. Would be a nice step up as we approach the release date this year.

 

[Banjodorf]

Depending on the number of hidden characters, (I'm betting there still are hidden characters. It's a fun staple of the franchise and I think Sakurai thinks the same way.) I think you're probably right.

Next month we could easily get Yoshi and Wario (Seriously, why don't we have them already?)

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Depending on the number of hidden characters, (I'm betting there still are hidden characters. It's a fun staple of the franchise and I think Sakurai thinks the same way.) I think you're probably right.

Next month we could easily get Yoshi and Wario (Seriously, why don't we have them already?)

They simply haven't had the opportunity as far as I'm aware. Game & Wario came out before Smash 4's announcement in Japan, and very shortly after in US and Europe, so that was bad timing for Wario. Same for Yoshi, he has obviously been held back intentionally so that he can be timed with Yoshi's New Island. Luckily there aren't many of the potential starters left to reveal though, only Yoshi, Wario, Ice Climbers, Sheik, Zero Suit Samus and Meta Knight as far as I'm aware, two of those being transformations, while Meta Knight can easily be made unlockable if necessary. Many other obvious characters like Falco, C. Falcon and Ness can easily be unlockable, thus revealed post-release.

On another note, Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes will be out in March. I doubt they'll be promoting a PS3/PS4/360/XBone game though, so for once I'll predict that we won't see Snake in March.

 

[Banjodorf]

Yeah. In addition, I'm betting Ike will be unlockable this time, with Marth as a starter for his third round.

I'm kinda hoping C. Falcon is a starter again...

So as far as revealed Mario characters, is the general opinion that they'll all be starters, or Luigi hidden again and Sakurai is just having fun right now?

More on topic, to check, there IS an important Wario date next month right, and I'm not just mixing stuff up?

 

[Staarih]

Well, seeing as Sakurai actually did acknowledge TF's non-Japan release date, I'd say Yoshi in March is very likely. Waiting until the Japanese summer release might be a bit too much haha. I also agree with the "two characters per month"-notion. The other character in March could very well be Wario for the Japanese release of Mario Party: Island Tour, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was shown in May with Mario Kart 8. Snake in March is an option too, if he appears, but I sort of agree with Wariofan1 with them not wanting to promote a game for another console. But who knows really.... We might get someone random or even a newcomer as well.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Ok we can add some information

Japan only release theory is destoryed

Luigi was revealed for the usa release of mario bros dream team and for luigi day

Diddy kong was revealed for the usa release of donkey kong country tropical freeze

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

While I dunno if intentional, it makes partially sense to announce Diddy on a release date for an outerstate release, considering the team(s) his game are (and were) from- I mean weren't Rare British company if I remember correctly back in 90's? Retro again I think is from US?

But yeah. I guess we could try checking more on any potential release date (perhaps most earliest and/or Japanese release date) for more reveals.

 

[Chandeelure]

Stickied! yay!

Now that Diddy was showed for an American release, we can hope for Yoshi in March!

And I hope for this:

Or Sakurai will have a mysterious accident

 

[Curious Villager]

Oh yay the more tolerable Diddy Kong has been confirmed today.

Guess this marks the first proper time we got a character reveal on a non-Japanese release date. I wonder if those only count if the Japanese release has already been passed though....

Also guys.... please try to get into the habit of saying non-Japanese or Western release.... Tropical Freeze also got released in Europe today you know....

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Oh yay the more tolerable Diddy Kong has been confirmed today.

Guess this marks the first proper time we got a character reveal on a non-Japanese release date. I wonder if those only count if the Japanese release has already been passed though....

Also guys.... please try to get into the habit of saying non-Japanese or Western release.... Tropical Freeze also got released in Europe today you know....

Second character for a non japapese release luigi was reveal not just for luigi day also for mario bros dream team usa release date

Not only yoshi is possible for march it's now a lock thanks to diddy kong

 

[Curious Villager]

Second character for a non japapese release luigi was reveal not just for luigi day also for mario bros dream team usa release date

Not only yoshi is possible for march it's now a lock thanks to diddy kong

I think that was more for the year of Luigi during the Nintendo Direct than Dream Team as his reveal was a couple days off so I'm not entirely sure on that one.

I'm not sure if I would be so quick to call it a lock though, else we should start counting anniversaries too from here on out and many previous western releases were skipped over in the past. I'd say give it a few more reveals that are related to a Western release so we can be fully sure that Sakurai is counting them now.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I'm thinking that Luigi was released for the direct. Not Dream Team.

 

[Deleted member]

I am thinking that we will get Wario and Yoshi next month. We might get Meta Knight in May… or at least I am hoping that will happen.

 

[AncientTobacco]

And I hope for this:

Or Sakurai will have a mysterious accident

If you mean egg-targeting, I agree.

If you mean Baby Mario.... Let's just say that you're the one who will have a mysterious accident.

 

[Chandeelure]

If you mean egg-targeting, I agree.

If you mean Baby Mario.... Let's just say that you're the one who will have a mysterious accident.

I mean Egg Targeting, but I wouldn't mind Baby Mario.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Yoshi needs a revamp in-general. The top Yoshi's ever been in is 64.

 

[Knight Dude]

Well, Diddy was finally shown off. So things might get a little more interesting this time around. The most likely to be shown next is Yoshi. Since he has a game coming out in March. Though I'm more interested in April's reveal, if there is one. As far as I know, no one obvious would need to be shown during that time.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

so diddy shown for an American//European release?
our logic goes out the window again, well at least this one was also predictable too

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I think that was more for the year of Luigi during the Nintendo Direct than Dream Team as his reveal was a couple days off so I'm not entirely sure on that one.

I'm not sure if I would be so quick to call it a lock though, else we should start counting anniversaries too from here on out and many previous western releases were skipped over in the past. I'd say give it a few more reveals that are related to a Western release so we can be fully sure that Sakurai is counting them now.

http://www.smashbros.com/us/characters/luigi.html

Tell that to the link to mario bros dream team on his page

True we need a few more but diddy kong made it look good due to sakurai quoting about the usa release of DKCTF

 

[Curious Villager]

http://www.smashbros.com/us/characters/luigi.html

Tell that to the link to mario bros dream team on his page

True we need a few more but diddy kong made it look good due to sakurai quoting about the usa release of DKCTF

You might as well say the same thing for a number of other characters who have link's to their games but were revealed off their game's release. Sakurai's Miiverse post itself stated that he was revealed due to the Year of Luigi, not Dream Team.

A REAL pic of the day--Luigi joins the battle! In prior games, we've never introduced Luigi before release, but why not? This is the "Year of Luigi," after all.

Well yeah, Diddy Kong is a start, here's hoping we see a few more characters getting revealed on some more western releases.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Asides from Yoshi's New Island, what other games are there in March?

Hmm...

I think this might be a catch-up time.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Let's bask in the rare case of having correctly predicted Sakurai

I think we have veteran reveals pretty good when predicting.
The only time that we are surprised with veteran reveals is usually when something comes out of nowhere and is literally impossible to predict since there is no evidence, like Lucario.

We now know that veterans are almost always revealed for game release dates in either Japan or Europe/North America if the Japan release date has passed.


Newcomers on the other hand, are always revealed in a Nintendo Direct, but only when Sakurai tweets a reminder to watch it. The reason a newcomer is revealed in a direct is either an anniversary (Mac), release (Villager at E3, New Leaf), or randomly if there is no occasion around that time.

Also, for a newcomer from an existing series to be revealed, all the veterans in that series must already be announced (as seen with Rosalina), and all 3rd Parties must be revealed at E3 or other special occasion (as seen with Mega Man). That last one is a bit of a stretch though.

All these rules seem to be set, until proven otherwise.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Yoshi is probably next.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Even if we have rules, there will probably be unexpected exceptions.

 

[BluePikmin11]

What kind of reveals haven't been done yet anyways, we got American and European reveal dates now as a possibility, what else?

 

[ShichibukaiJimbe]

My predictions:

March:
Yoshi
Wario

April:
A newcomer
an unexpected veteran

May:
an unexpected veteran
Metaknight

 

[Staarih]

Asides from Yoshi's New Island, what other games are there in March?

I only realized this in the "Game release schedule" (or whatever it's called) -thread, but apparently Pokémon Battle Trozei is out in March. The dates coincide with Yoshi's New Island though and an eShop release may not be anything to hype about, but it is a new Pokémon title nevertheless and maybe Pokémon Trainer or whoever could be revealed then.

 

[egaddmario]

Also, for a newcomer from an existing series to be revealed, all the veterans in that series must already be announced (as seen with Rosalina), and all 3rd Parties must be revealed at E3 or other special occasion (as seen with Mega Man). That last one is a bit of a stretch though.

All these rules seem to be set, until proven otherwise.

Sonic's reveal for Brawl was fairly random, was it? I know we're talking Smash 4, but I thought i'd bring it up anyways.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Sonic's reveal for Brawl was fairly random, was it? I know we're talking Smash 4, but I thought i'd bring it up anyways.

If I am correct, Sonic's inclusion was due to a popularity poll, so the winner was announced randomly,

 

[Deleted member]

Sonic's reveal for Brawl was fairly random, was it? I know we're talking Smash 4, but I thought i'd bring it up anyways.

Sonic was highly demanded to get in Smash since E3 2006.
Sakurai went out of his way to put Sonic in Brawl with the cost of 7 characters (one being Mewtwo)… that's dedication to your fanbase.

 

[egaddmario]

If I am correct, Sonic's inclusion was due to a popularity poll, so the winner was announced randomly,

Sonic was highly demanded to get in Smash since E3 2006.
Sakurai went out of his way to put Sonic in Brawl with the cost of 7 characters (one being Mewtwo)… that's dedication to your fanbase.

I understand that. But the reveal was random, yes?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Sonic was highly demanded to get in Smash since E3 2006.
Sakurai went out of his way to put Sonic in Brawl with the cost of 7 characters (one being Mewtwo)… that's dedication to your fanbase.

He's talking about the reveal date. Not Sonic's character.

I believe Sonic was released for E 4 all though.

 

[egaddmario]

He's talking about the reveal date. Not Sonic's character.

I believe Sonic was released for E 4 all though.

Okay, that's something more significant. Not E3, but it's at least something. Thanks Swamp

 

[Deleted member]

He's talking about the reveal date. Not Sonic's character.

I believe Sonic was released for E 4 all though.

…Oh…
Sonic was revealed in the Nintendo Conference of Fall 2007. More specifically, on October 10, 2007. He was playable at E 4 All.

 

[ToothiestAura]

All these rules seem to be set, until proven otherwise.

Which Sakurai loves to do.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

The fact that Little Mac got in is starting to show that Sakurai is finally listening to the west.
Little Mac is a character that was really wanted in Smash in the west, but was unpopular, and could even be considered obscure, in Japan.

Hopefully, this means something for Ridley, and other west-wanted characters.

 

[Dark Phazon]

Well, Diddy was finally shown off. So things might get a little more interesting this time around. The most likely to be shown next is Yoshi. Since he has a game coming out in March. Though I'm more interested in April's reveal, if there is one. As far as I know, no one obvious would need to be shown during that time.

And they will be a N-Direct too!
the last direct before E3!

April is be gonna mad!* cant wait

 

[Thirdkoopa]

I only realized this in the "Game release schedule" (or whatever it's called) -thread, but apparently Pokémon Battle Trozei is out in March. The dates coincide with Yoshi's New Island though and an eShop release may not be anything to hype about, but it is a new Pokémon title nevertheless and maybe Pokémon Trainer or whoever could be revealed then.

Catching up on Pokemon? It's possible, I mean, all we have is Pikachu and Lucario.