How can we predict reveals?

[Cobalsh]

Lucario comes out of the BLUE.
Now I get it.

 

[Oniric Spriter]

So... we are all expecting Diddy right? Who knows, Sakurai could give us a surprise.

 

[AncientTobacco]

So... we are all expecting Diddy right? Who knows, Sakurai could give us a surprise.

Unless there's a Direct with a newcomer before Thursday, the next reveal is going to be Diddy.

Or do you really think we'll get some random character when TF is right around the corner?

 

[Raetah]

Unless there's a Direct with a newcomer before Thursday, the next reveal is going to be Diddy.

Or do you really think we'll get some random character when TF is right around the corner?

What if they reveal a new Donkey Kong character instead of Diddy?

 

[Kon]

Diddy is a fanfavorite character and therefore it makes much more sense to confirm him. Especially as there is no Nintendo Direct so far to expect before the 13th.

Unless Sakurai proves the theory being wrong, I'll expect newcomer reveals only at Nintendo Directs or at E3.

 

[AncientTobacco]

What if they reveal a new Donkey Kong character instead of Diddy?

Like I said: "Unless there's a Direct with a newcomer".

But still, I think they'd reveal Diddy first before any new DK reps.

 

[Raetah]

Diddy is a fanfavorite character and therefore it makes much more sense to confirm him. Especially as there is no Nintendo Direct so far to expect before the 13th.

Unless Sakurai proves the theory being wrong, I'll expect newcomer reveals only at Nintendo Directs or at E3.

Remember that "what it makes sense" is not what Sakurai does, sometimes.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Unless there's a Direct with a newcomer before Thursday, the next reveal is going to be Diddy.

Or do you really think we'll get some random character when TF is right around the corner?

Oh indeed if there's no direct before Thursday hello diddy kong (athough In my head sakurai will throw another curveball with either the diddy and dixey duo or king k rool but I'm still positive diddy will be revealed at that time)

 

[Oniric Spriter]

I was talking more about random reveal (not necessarily the same day TF comes out), but yeah, I'm expecting Diddy too in part to de-confirm the stupid duo mechanic people think will happen.

Remember that "what it makes sense" is not what Sakurai does, sometimes.

Newcomers always will come on Nintendo directs and E3s, there's much more hype going on there than a daily screenshot with a new character, specially since these ones have cutscenes and match clips of how they work. That's one of the things we can expect without doubts from Sakurai.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I was talking more about random reveal (not necessarily the same day TF comes out), but yeah, I'm expecting Diddy too in part to de-confirm the stupid duo mechanic people think will happen.


Newcomers always will come on Nintendo directs and E3s, there's much more hype going on there than a daily screenshot with a new character, specially since these ones have cutscenes and match clips of how they work. That's one of the things we can expect without doubts from Sakurai.

I agree but a reminder the one and only veteran that can get a trailer like all of the newcomers confirmed is mewtwo

 

[Oniric Spriter]

I agree but a reminder the one and only veteran that can get a trailer like all of the newcomers confirmed is mewtwo

Yeah, but not actual cutscenes, pretty much like Sonic's trailer.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I expect Diddy the day of Tropical Freezes release in Japan.

That being said, if there is a Direct coming up, and it isn't Dixie, I have a hard time seeing her as a newcomer. But then again, there is the fact that Rosalina was revealed a month after 3D World came out. So who knows really?

I just want Palutena.

 

[Louie G.]

@ Scoliosis Jones
If we get a Direct and don't get a DK newcomer period, do you think that would lower K. Rool's chances as well?
I don't think it would, because K. Rool has little to no affiliation with Tropical Freeze.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

If anything, assuming we don't get Dixie, then that would increase his chances.

That would be because that would be a major competitor out of the way, and I think a Donkey Kong newcomer is incredibly likely. K.Rool has no affiliation with Tropical Freeze as you said, and therefore probably wouldn't be revealed alongside it. Sure, he'd have a trailer, but it wouldn't necessarily have to be related to it.

 

[Kenith]

I, for one, am seeing a pattern in the reveal of newcomers (since Rosalina, anyway).

So, say there is a Direct every two months, and each one reveals a brand new character.
Rosalina was revealed in December.
King K. Rool would be revealed in February. That would imply the reveals are in series order.
A Zelda newcomer? if any, would be revealed for the April Direct.
And finally, the next series in the line, Metroid, gets Ridley in June, for the E3 Direct. Additionally, Little Mac is revealed since his series is so far in the series order (the game would come out way before he's revealed.

Obviously, if we don't get a DK newcomer this month, the plan would be much more unlikely.

 

[Cpt.]

@ Scoliosis Jones
If we get a Direct and don't get a DK newcomer period, do you think that would lower K. Rool's chances as well?
I don't think it would, because K. Rool has little to no affiliation with Tropical Freeze.

Yeah the only one that would make sense to announce would be Diddy/Dixie on that day.

 

[Staarih]

I think it's pretty far-fetched to draw patterns for newcomer reveals yet, as we've only had three via E3 and one via Direct. I do think they will be revealed through Directs or similar occasions, sure, because they want to show off their trailers and they're good portals for international news and hype... but I wouldn't be surprised if we get some of them in a completely different way. I guess all we can do is wait and see haha.

But Diddy is definitely a given on Thursday. After that, it's going to be harder to predict reveals - even Yoshi in March is questionable, as Yoshi's New Island isn't released in Japan then (that we know of yet).

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Yoshi isn't getting revealed in March if it's not the Japanese release date.

It will definitely be more difficult for a few months. Yoshi is probably going to be announced the month we get his game. But several characters will have no opportunity to be revealed with a game release, so that means Kirby, Star Fox, Zelda, Ice Climbers, R.O.B, Game & Watch, F-Zero, Mother, MGS, Fire Emblem, and Pokemon have no upcoming releases, so it's going to be anbodys guess for awhile.

 

[Louie G.]

@ Scoliosis Jones
We still haven't gotten Triple Deluxe in America, so MAYBE Meta Knight could be revealed then.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

@ Scoliosis Jones
We still haven't gotten Triple Deluxe in America, so MAYBE Meta Knight could be revealed then.

American game releases got nothing (luigi was the only one)

Besides meta knight can be reveal anytime because we lost again with lucario which confirmed anniversary's as something to look in

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I doubt it honestly. American release dates haven't mean anything, so I'm expecting him to be random. Basically:

Wario
Meta Knight
Captain Falcon
Ness
Pokemon Trainer
Jigglypuff
Lucas
Ice Climbers
R.O.B
Mr. Game and Watch
Snake
Ganondorf
Falco
Wolf
Sheik
Zero Suit Samus
Ike

Are all characters who don't have an upcoming release to advertise. The only possibilities could be Wario for Mario Kart 8, Ike for SMT X FE, the rest really don't have much of anything to work with.

It's going to be a tough couple of months, but it will probably be exciting for it to be unpredictable.

 

[FlareHabanero]

I doubt it honestly. American release dates haven't mean anything, so I'm expecting him to be random. Basically:

Wario
Meta Knight
Captain Falcon
Ness
Pokemon Trainer
Jigglypuff
Lucas
Ice Climbers
R.O.B
Mr. Game and Watch
Snake
Ganondorf
Falco
Wolf
Sheik
Zero Suit Samus
Ike

Are all characters who don't have an upcoming release to advertise. The only possibilities could be Wario for Mario Kart 8, Ike for SMT X FE, the rest really don't have much of anything to work with.

It's going to be a tough couple of months, but it will probably be exciting for it to be unpredictable.

Keep in mind that we have several dry months coming up, which is probably when any of those characters will show up. For example, nothing is coming out for April, May, or June. March meanwhile only has Mario Party: Island Tour coming out in Japan.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Keep in mind that we have several dry months coming up, which is probably when any of those characters will show up. For example, nothing is coming out for April, May, or June. March meanwhile only has Mario Party: Island Tour coming out in Japan.

Exactly. That's why I'm actually looking forward to the dry stretch, because we'll probably see characters we thought were in danger of getting cut.

Just give me Ike and Snake (maybe Falco too) and I'll be satisfied.

 

[Vez]

It would make logical sense for them to show off Dixie in a direct shortly after Diddy Kong, and I'd be surprised if they don't, but at the same time I don't think anybody should jump to the conclusion that she's not playable if she isn't shown. This is Sakurai after all, his decisions don't always make a lot of sense.

People also shouldn't automatically jump to the conclusion that K. Rool isn't playable if Dixie actually is shown as a playable character. Admittedly I wouldn't have particularly high hopes for him at that point, but there's still a chance.

 

[Morbi]

It would make logical sense for them to show off Dixie in a direct shortly after Diddy Kong, and I'd be surprised if they don't, but at the same time I don't think anybody should jump to the conclusion that she's not playable if she isn't shown. This is Sakurai, he doesn't make a lot of sense.

People also shouldn't automatically jump to the conclusion that K. Rool isn't playable if Dixie actually is shown as a playable character. Admittedly I wouldn't have particuarlly high hopes for him at that point, but there's still a chance.

Just as a question, how many newcomers do you actually think we will get? I completely and utterly agree with you, but I am laboring under the assumption that we are to get 6 more newcomers. If 2 of those were Donkey Kong, I suppose it is just difficult to fathom.

 

[Vez]

I'd agree with estimating about 6 more newcomers, but there's no real way to know how many more we'll get. I think if any franchise that isn't Mario, Zelda or Pokemon could get away with 4 characters it's probably DK. Maybe Star Fox as well due to the popularity of Krystal. I really don't expect Kirby to get a fourth at all because Kirby + Meta + Dedede is perfect and there aren't any other notable characters (sorry Bandana fans).

 

[False Sense]

Just a thought I had, but if they do reveal newcomers going by series order (Mario -> Donkey Kong -> Zelda?), and if it's true that all the series other veterans need to be revealed before we get a newcomer to the series, then it's possible we may see a random reveal of Ganondorf in the near future. Of course, this is all based on theoretical patterns that may or may not mean anything at all, and it assumes the Zelda franchise actually gets a newcomer at all, but I guess it's worth considering.

 

[Kon]

Just a thought I had, but if they do reveal newcomers going by series order (Mario -> Donkey Kong -> Zelda?), and if it's true that all the series other veterans need to be revealed before we get a newcomer to the series, then it's possible we may see a random reveal of Ganondorf in the near future. Of course, this is all based on theoretical patterns that may or may not mean anything at all, and it assumes the Zelda franchise actually gets a newcomer at all, but I guess it's worth considering.

Good point you make there. However we first have to wait and see if your idea may work. So for your theory, this month should play a keyrole.

I like your idea after all, but I feel it's difficult to say which series will get another rep. Let's just look at Super Mario. We weren't sure if there were 5 characters to be expected or if the series were to stay at 4 reps like in Brawl after the cut of Dr.Mario from Melee to Brawl.

Maybe in order to find out which series deserve another spot, we should start the other way around.
Which series won't get more reps than in Brawl: (in my opinion the following)
- Mother series (3 games, 2 reps)
- Star Fox series (not that many games, 3 reps already)
- F-Zero (long time no new game, 1 rep)
- Pikmin (3 games, 1 rep, seems ok like that to me)

Which series may get more reps than in Brawl:
- WarioWare/Warioland (1-2 characters are possible in my opinion)
- Yoshi series (1-2 characters are possible in my opinion)
- Fire Emblem (2-3 characters are possible in my opinion)
- Legend of Zelda (4-5 characters are possible in my opinion)
- Kirby (3-4 characters are possible in my opinion)
- Kid Icarus (1-2 characters are possible, but difficult to say how likely two reps really are)

Which series are likely to get more reps than in Brawl:
- Pokémon (very important franchise for Nintendo, can be seen on an equal level with Super Mario meaning 5 reps after all)
- Donkey Kong series (glorious return with DKCR, also a series having many games: DKC1-3, DK64 and all types of spinoffs)


And the only series already confirmed having more reps than in Brawl is Super Mario.

That's my opinion on this. I don't say we will get a Pokémon newcomer because Sakurai could also easily fill the 5 spots with Pokémon veterans from Melee and Brawl. And the DK series will at least have 3 reps in my opinion while 4 may still be a possibility too.

Btw @ False Sense : You've forgotten one thing. Ganondorf and Shiek would have to be confirmed before a reveal of a Zelda newcomer. At least if Sakurai were to reveal all the veterans of a series before revealing a newcomer of an already confirmed SSB4 series.

 

[False Sense]

Good point you make there. However we first have to wait and see if your idea may work. So for your theory, this month should play a keyrole.

I like your idea after all, but I feel it's difficult to say which series will get another rep. Let's just look at Super Mario. We weren't sure if there were 5 characters to be expected or if the series were to stay at 4 reps like in Brawl after the cut of Dr.Mario from Melee to Brawl.

Maybe in order to find out which series deserve another spot, we should start the other way around.
Which series won't get more reps than in Brawl: (in my opinion the following)
- Mother series (3 games, 2 reps)
- Star Fox series (not that many games, 3 reps already)
- F-Zero (long time no new game, 1 rep)
- Pikmin (3 games, 1 rep, seems ok like that to me)

Which series may get more reps than in Brawl:
- WarioWare/Warioland (1-2 characters are possible in my opinion)
- Yoshi series (1-2 characters are possible in my opinion)
- Fire Emblem (2-3 characters are possible in my opinion)
- Legend of Zelda (4-5 characters are possible in my opinion)
- Kirby (3-4 characters are possible in my opinion)
- Kid Icarus (1-2 characters are possible, but difficult to say how likely two reps really are)

Which series are likely to get more reps than in Brawl:
- Pokémon (very important franchise for Nintendo, can be seen on an equal level with Super Mario meaning 5 reps after all)
- Donkey Kong series (glorious return with DKCR, also a series having many games: DKC1-3, DK64 and all types of spinoffs)


And the only series already confirmed having more reps than in Brawl is Super Mario.

That's my opinion on this. I don't say we will get a Pokémon newcomer because Sakurai could also easily fill the 5 spots with Pokémon veterans from Melee and Brawl. And the DK series will at least have 3 reps in my opinion while 4 may still be a possibility too.

Btw @ False Sense : You've forgotten one thing. Ganondorf and Shiek would have to be confirmed before a reveal of a Zelda newcomer. At least if Sakurai were to reveal all the veterans of a series before revealing a newcomer of an already confirmed SSB4 series.

Ah, yes, totally forgot about Sheik. Maybe if they don't count her as a separate character they could get away with just revealing Ganondorf, but since she has been treated as such in the past, I guess that's two characters they'd have to randomly reveal before we get a Zelda newcomer.

Also, going off the idea of what series will be getting new characters, I have another theory that has little basis to put out there. I'm thinking that the earlier a series was revealed to be represented in Smash 4, the more likely it is to get a new rep, and vice versa. This is just me figuring that if a series were to get a newcomer, they would probably want to show that the series is being acknowledged as soon as possible rather than waiting forever. Going off of this, this makes series like WarioWare, Yoshi, F-Zero, and Mother unlikely to get new characters, while it favors the chances of series like Mario (already confirmed), Donkey Kong, Pokemon, Zelda, Metroid, Kid Icarus, etc. Kid Icarus I find especially interesting, as it's a pretty miscellaneous series that only got introduced in Brawl, yet Pit was shown off in the very first trailer. They could have easily made Pit a random character reveal down the road and no one would bat an eye. The reverse could be said for characters like Yoshi, a character who's been a part of the series since the beginning and whose absence was very quickly noticed. Perhaps they revealed some of the series earlier than others because those series were getting new characters, so they wanted to establish them as quickly as possible...

Again, that's complete speculation and theorizing on my part. This theory could be entirely inaccurate, and even if it is it does raise the question of where mid-reveal series like Fire Emblem fit into it. But with not much else to go on, again, I guess it's worth some consideration.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Once we have Diddy and Yoshi, all reveals would probably be A) Entirely Random (Marth) or B) Anniversaries (Peach, Lucario), since there is nothing major after TF and YNI.

 

[Kon]

Once we have Diddy and Yoshi, all reveals would probably be A) Entirely Random (Marth) or B) Anniversaries (Peach, Lucario), since there is nothing major after TF and YNI.

*and Wario maybe for MK8.

I wouldn't make such a statement already as it's already known Nintendo will have a couple of announcements to make on E3 2014 too. Also there is a possibility we get an FE character when Fire Emblem X Shin Megami Tensei is released in Japan. After all, there are still opportunities for release-related reveals.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

*and Wario maybe for MK8.

I wouldn't make such a statement already as it's already known Nintendo will have a couple of announcements to make on E3 2014 too. Also there is a possibility we get an FE character when Fire Emblem X Shin Megami Tensei is released in Japan. After all, there are still opportunities for release-related reveals.

I find Wario being revealed for MK8 kinda unlikely, mostly because it'd be promoting a series he (technically) isn't a part of. Smash counts WarioWare and Yoshi as their own franchises, and it'd be weird to have a character promote a game that they aren't a part of (or at least, IMO). Sakurai may or may not view this the same way. This we'll have to wait and see.
Now, I guess I forgot to say I was mostly referring to Pre-E3 about the whole release related thing. There's not really anything going on between now and E3, bar TF and YNI (and to a lesser extent, MK8). Or at least, not that I know of.

 

[Staarih]

Wario doesn't really have anything else going for him than the Mario games as of now (not only Mario Kart 8 in May, but maybe also Mario Party: Island Tour which hits Japan in March), unless they inform us about a new WarioWare game being pushed out soon. At least he ties in with those games rather than being randomly associated with something else (or nothing). But yeah, we'll just have to wait and see, Sakurai can't be predicted easily if at all haha!

 

[JetpackX]

Wario doesn't really have anything else going for him than the Mario games as of now (not only Mario Kart 8 in May, but maybe also Mario Party: Island Tour which hits Japan in March), unless they inform us about a new WarioWare game being pushed out soon. At least he ties in with those games rather than being randomly associated with something else (or nothing). But yeah, we'll just have to wait and see, Sakurai can't be predicted easily if at all haha!

Maybe its a new WarioWare game that Nintendo is announcing in April. (They said they were announcing a new game for the Wii U, and it would not be a new Star Fox or F Zero )

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Maybe its a new WarioWare game that Nintendo is announcing in April. (They said they were announcing a new game for the Wii U, and it would not be a new Star Fox or F Zero )

Source?

 

[Staarih]

Source?

I presume this: http://mynintendonews.com/2014/02/0...ine-has-teased-new-wii-u-game-in-april-issue/

 

[BluePikmin11]

Nazo no Muramase Jou possibly, that would be very interesting.
Maybe it's that Project Hammer game that was canceled awhile back.

 

[mr.boombastic]

we could most definitely see a new rep from the dk, fire emblem, zelda, and pokemon ( gen 6 rep?) series. Heck kid icarus could get a new rep. (praying medusa gets chosen!)

i doubt we will see any new reps from the mother, starfox, and kirby series.

 

[Kon]

Teaser for tomorrows reveal?

Tomorrow Diddy will take revenge on Toon Link ;D

 

[Luigi#1]

That evil blue talking Pickchu from that up coming detective game will be revealed.