How can we predict reveals?

[Cpt.]

especially because Sakurai has already tried to implement the duo and for some reason got rid of it. So after all, this idea of the duo Dixie + Diddy is already out of question: No way he would do such a thing. There is a whole process going on before kicking an idea and kicking the idea of Diddy+Dixie as one character slot isn't just done because Sakurai felt like waiting for the next SSB game to implement the Kong-team instead.
If you were to expect both Diddy and Dixie, then you should keep the idea of two separate characters rather than having the duo as one character slot. Especially thinking of DKCR and DKC:TF both speaking against the duo Diddy+Dixie.

Somehow this never really crossed my mind. On the other hand, Mewtwo was almost implemented and I doubt that he wasn't because Sakurai kicked him out. Maybe it was another issue on time that he didn't put Dixie in?

 

[AEMehr]

No, it was a full day. The anniversary was September 13th.
Peach was revealed for September 12th's PotD.

To us, yes. But in Japan it was 6:06 PM (Assuming I did my math right).

 

[Deleted member]

To us, yes. But in Japan it was 6:06 PM (Assuming I did my math right).

No, to us it was 11:06 on September 11th.

 

[AEMehr]

No, to us it was 11:06 on September 11th.

Based on the time stamp, I believe your information is incorrect Golden my friend.
https://miiverse.nintendo.net/posts/AYMHAAABAADOUgHqvrzAUw

 

[Deleted member]

Based on the time stamp, I believe your information is incorrect Golden my friend.
https://miiverse.nintendo.net/posts/AYMHAAABAADOUgHqvrzAUw

What time stamp?
Aside from that, oldest comment is September 12th at 1:06 am.
Then there's the fact that September 13th was a Friday, and the picture for that day was Peach and Luigi staring at each other in shock.

 

[AEMehr]

What time stamp?
Aside from that, oldest comment is September 12th at 1:06 am.
Then there's the fact that September 13th was a Friday, and the picture for that day was Peach and Luigi staring at each other in shock.

The time stamp at the top right of Sakurai's comment which reads September 12th at 1:06 am, in the United States.
Japan's time zone is 17 hours ahead of yours and mine, so it was posted on September 12th at 6:06 PM in Japan. Which is, like I said, roughly 6 hours before SMB's anniversary.

As for the pic of Peach staring at Luigi, maybe that could be reference to the famed "Your princess is in another castle" meme, but reversed. I mean the comment is "Here comes my Mario...NOT!". Seems like an obvious reference when you think about it.

 

[UltimateWario]

especially because Sakurai has already tried to implement the duo and for some reason got rid of it

Because it wasn't working properly. We don't know the situation, but odds are, whatever it was that wasn't working will work this time around. I wouldn't discount the Diddy/Dixie team under any circumstances, especially since Dixie doesn't have tons of unique moveset possibilities by herself.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

I have a little theory.

Sakurai randomly announced Lucario to distract people from all the leaks.
Especially the Translator Leak.

The Translator Leak said the next character revealed would be Diddy in February.
Sakurai could have randomly announced Lucario to make everyone think, "Oh the leak was wrong. It is all untrue!" While Sakurai announced if for the soul purpose of making the leak sound fake.

The same goes for the Palutena statue. He posted that to make some people think Palutena won't be in and that the leak was fake.

 

[UltimateWario]

That seems pretty childish, even for Sakurai (no offense, Sakurai-san). I'm pretty sure he knows that we're smarter than that.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I have a little theory.

Sakurai randomly announced Lucario to distract people from all the leaks.
Especially the Translator Leak.

The Translator Leak said the next character revealed would be Diddy in February.
Sakurai could have randomly announced Lucario to make everyone think, "Oh the leak was wrong. It is all untrue!" While Sakurai announced if for the soul purpose of making the leak sound fake.

The same goes for the Palutena statue. He posted that to make some people think Palutena won't be in and that the leak was fake.

Doubtful.

Most leaks don't get anywhere close to Sakurai. Palutena is an exception because of how blown up that got. But the other ones are hardly that big of a deal.

If Lucario was revealed for a particular reason, it was because of the Brawl anniversary and nothing else.

Anyway, with Lucario revealed, what do we think it means for characters like Ike? Considering Lucario was deemed likely to be cut, I think it can be noted that we may have been completely off with that prediction.

Or maybe I just want Ike back. Real bad.

 

[UltimateWario]

I don't think anyone is going anywhere.

Though I'd definitely prefer that Earthbound's reps be combined into one. Lucas will probably still return, however.

 

[Zuby]

I had Lucario and Snake picked as the two cuts, so obviously I was at least half wrong. If I were an over-analyser I would think that Lucario's confirmation would cast a little more doubt over Pokémon Trainer and/or Jigglypuff, especially since the latter was apparently low-priority in Brawl.

But the developers will do what they planned, doesn't matter what I say.

 

[Arteen]

Jigglypuff, Lucario and Mewtwo all got increased relevance with X&Y, so it's hard to say if any of them will get cut. Lucario and Mewtwo have their transformations, and Jigglypuff is one of the new fairy types.

As far as next month goes, I expect Diddy in the next two weeks to promote Tropical Freeze, and I also expect that we'll see another newcomer revealed in a Nintendo Direct. Honestly though, I expect it won't be a Donkey Kong character. If K Rool's the newcomer, he'd be an awkward way to promote Tropical Freeze. Dixie would work better, but revealing Diddy and Dixie back-to-back for promotion feels too heavy-handed even for Sakurai.

The only way I see a Donkey Kong newcomer happening next month is if it's Dixie tag-teamed with Diddy.

 

[Superyoshiom]

Not sure if this had been posted, but I believe he was revealed for Brawl's anniversary.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I think it's safe to say that Lucario was our first legitimate anniversary character. Why he was picked is unknown, but it could be because the developers liked him over other characters.

I'm starting to wonder who exactly will be cut at this point. Lucario was one of the most suggested as a cut. Sakurai isn't planning cuts necessarily, and we know that nobody has been cut so far. (If that is what he means btw, that means Snake is automatically back).

Lucas is similar to Ness by his specials, but aside from that, he's pretty unique. Ike is in his own class of swordsman, and was incredibly liked for Brawl. Falco and Wolf are popular, and could easily be decloned even further (not saying Wolf is a clone really)

Wario, Yoshi, Diddy, Falcon, Ganondorf, Ness, Meta Knight, Jigglypuff, Ice Climbers, G&W, and R.O.B are in my opinion for sure in this game. Call it a hunch, and the fact that they are pretty damn likely.

I don't see who you cut. I mean maybe if you are forced into cutting PKMN Trainer because of technical difficulties, that's 3 characters right there. If 3rd parties coming back is a universal thing, then that means Snake is back (which I'm pretty sure he will be for multiple reasons).

Therefore, at this point, Ike, Lucas, PKMN Trainer, and Snake are the only characters I see as potential candidates to be cut. At least that's my point of view.

 

[ToothiestAura]

Sakurai didn't mention the anniversary in his post so it may just be unrelated. And even it was for the anniversary, he's let a bunch of anniversaries go by without any characters so it isn't exactly going to help us predict anything.

That said the Japanese release of Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn was February 22nd, 2007, so we're nearing it's 7th anniversary. A potential reveal for Ike? Maybe, but his anniversary will probably go unrecognized. (Character specific anniversaries certainly haven't been a thing yet, though).

 

[Deleted member]

The time stamp at the top right of Sakurai's comment which reads September 12th at 1:06 am, in the United States.
Japan's time zone is 17 hours ahead of yours and mine, so it was posted on September 12th at 6:06 PM in Japan. Which is, like I said, roughly 6 hours before SMB's anniversary.

As for the pic of Peach staring at Luigi, maybe that could be reference to the famed "Your princess is in another castle" meme, but reversed. I mean the comment is "Here comes my Mario...NOT!". Seems like an obvious reference when you think about it.

Seems a little fishy that Sakurai wouldn't update Peach on the exact day of the anniversary as he did Lucario. Which bears questioning why we didn't get Lucario for yesterday's PotD like the case with Peach since it would just be hours before Brawl's anniversary in Japan Time.

 

[Arcanir]

I'm still skeptical about Lucario's reveal being related to Brawl. The thing is we still missed almost every other anniversary aside from Brawls and even that one wasn't acknowledged (the comment could be coincidental). It could be another case like Peach where they revealed a character at random but it happened to be close to an anniversary.

Even if we assume that it wasn't, he's probably the exception, not the rule. At best I'd expect something for Melee and that game only.

 

[Deleted member]

Melee's release anniversary already passed.
You know what we got for it?

A pic of Mario, Luigi, and Peach while holding Toad out. Because Super Mario 3D World came out in Japan that day.

 

[Staarih]

Well, Sakurai did explicitly make a comment about Brawl in Miiverse, and how Lucario's addition required some effort:

"Lucario joined the battle for the first time in Super Smash Bros. Brawl, which was released six years ago. The production staff of Brawl worked really hard to expand the character roster--without their efforts, Lucario probably never would have joined the battle."

But I'm thinking Lucario wasn't necessarily planned beforehand to be revealed on Brawl's anniversary. Maybe Game Freak was finally OK with revealing another Pokémon character, and instead of revealing it randomly Sakurai decided to tie it in with Brawl's anniversary. Who knows, maybe Lucario was ready to be shown by the time of Smash 64's anniversary or something, but that wouldn't have really worked out for Lucario - naturally, as it wasn't in the game. I'm not sure if anniversaries are yet a "thing" though, as this was for a Smash Bros game's anniversary and not some other game (and Peach's reveal is still arguable).

 

[Halfhead]

Well, Sakurai did explicitly make a comment about Brawl in Miiverse, and how Lucario's addition required some effort:

"Lucario joined the battle for the first time in Super Smash Bros. Brawl, which was released six years ago. The production staff of Brawl worked really hard to expand the character roster--without their efforts, Lucario probably never would have joined the battle."

Thank you. It's like people will do anything to get Sakurai to talk about his character decision process and when he finally does, no one reads it. It must be frustrating for him.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I'm not saying to expect anniversary reveals now because of one actually meaning something. But I think it's pretty clear that it was to coincide with Brawl.

 

[Luigi#1]

I have a little theory.

Sakurai randomly announced Lucario to distract people from all the leaks.
Especially the Translator Leak.

The Translator Leak said the next character revealed would be Diddy in February.
Sakurai could have randomly announced Lucario to make everyone think, "Oh the leak was wrong. It is all untrue!" While Sakurai announced if for the soul purpose of making the leak sound fake.

The same goes for the Palutena statue. He posted that to make some people think Palutena won't be in and that the leak was fake.

Yay conspirises. But this could be true.
The Translator leak sounds way more convincing then Mr.Predictions ever did.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Yay conspirises. But this could be true.
The Translator leak sounds way more convincing then Mr.Predictions ever did.

I force myself to believe The Translator Leak, mainly because Fawful assist.

 

[Luigi#1]

I force myself to believe The Translator Leak, mainly because Fawful assist.

I don't like false hope.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

I don't like false hope.

Let me rephrase my opinions on it.
I really like the leak as a whole, especially the Diddy & Dixie tag-team, and the Fawful assist.
I hope it is true, and I kind of believe it too.

 

[Dark Phazon]

That seems pretty childish, even for Sakurai (no offense, Sakurai-san). I'm pretty sure he knows that we're smarter than that.

Sakurai legendary game designer actually bothers to play these stupid mind games with us?

No offense to you just saying in general.....Sakurai does what he wants lol

 

[Arcanir]

Well, Sakurai did explicitly make a comment about Brawl in Miiverse, and how Lucario's addition required some effort:

"Lucario joined the battle for the first time in Super Smash Bros. Brawl, which was released six years ago. The production staff of Brawl worked really hard to expand the character roster--without their efforts, Lucario probably never would have joined the battle."

But I'm thinking Lucario wasn't necessarily planned beforehand to be revealed on Brawl's anniversary. Maybe Game Freak was finally OK with revealing another Pokémon character, and instead of revealing it randomly Sakurai decided to tie it in with Brawl's anniversary. Who knows, maybe Lucario was ready to be shown by the time of Smash 64's anniversary or something, but that wouldn't have really worked out for Lucario - naturally, as it wasn't in the game. I'm not sure if anniversaries are yet a "thing" though, as this was for a Smash Bros game's anniversary and not some other game (and Peach's reveal is still arguable).

True, but that still didn't necessarily acknowledge the anniversary itself. Either way, it's a nice thing to know about since it's always good to hear little trivia about what's going on with development and how it affected certain characters.

I have a little theory.

Sakurai randomly announced Lucario to distract people from all the leaks.
Especially the Translator Leak.

The Translator Leak said the next character revealed would be Diddy in February.
Sakurai could have randomly announced Lucario to make everyone think, "Oh the leak was wrong. It is all untrue!" While Sakurai announced if for the soul purpose of making the leak sound fake.

The same goes for the Palutena statue. He posted that to make some people think Palutena won't be in and that the leak was fake.

I don't think he would've bothered with that. Most companies that deal with leaks just go on with their usual business and don't give it attention, the Pokémon XY leak is probably the best example of that as most of its information was leaked out but reveals still happened at the pace set by GF. If this was a real leak, it's more likely they wouldn't have given it the time of day.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

I don't think he would've bothered with that. Most companies that deal with leaks just go on with their usual business and don't give it attention, the Pokémon XY leak is probably the best example of that as most of its information was leaked out but reveals still happened at the pace set by GF. If this was a real leak, it's more likely they wouldn't have given it the time of day.

It's different with Smash Bros.

This is a game people have been speculating about for YEARS!
Sakurai would do anything in his power to make sure nothing leaks, and if something does he will try to hide it or make it seem false.

As for the X and Y leaks, Nintendo tried very hard to make sure nothing shows.

 

[FalKoopa]

I edited the thread title a bit. Nothing too significant.

And I don't think Sakurai is bothered by the leak, at all. Most companies don't really care. Reggie didn't even mention the leak of Cranky Kong's playability at VGX until the hosts asked him specifically.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

I would've thought that Game Freak would keep Sakurai chained, but I guess if any Brawl references need to be made, it's best to go with the youngest fighter, debut-wise, in Brawl.

 

[Arcanir]

It's different with Smash Bros.

This is a game people have been speculating about for YEARS!
Sakurai would do anything in his power to make sure nothing leaks, and if something does he will try to hide it or make it seem false.

As for the X and Y leaks, Nintendo tried very hard to make sure nothing shows.

And yet the best he's done with the supposed Palutena leak is play around with it, not automatically try to throw it out. Nintendo has shut down people who'd leak but they don't do much to the leaks themselves once they're out, there's nothing saying Smash would be any different in that regard if the list did leak out.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

It's different with Smash Bros.

This is a game people have been speculating about for YEARS!
Sakurai would do anything in his power to make sure nothing leaks, and if something does he will try to hide it or make it seem false.

As for the X and Y leaks, Nintendo tried very hard to make sure nothing shows.

There's nothing that indicates that Sakurai is a man that tries to disprove leaks, he didn't really treat Lucario any different when he was leaked pre-Brawl for example. Giving a leak any kind of attention would be suspicious, so the best course of action is to ignore it.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

I edited the thread title a bit. Nothing too significant.

And I don't think Sakurai is bothered by the leak, at all. Most companies don't really care. Reggie didn't even mention the leak of Cranky Kong's playability at VGX until the hosts asked him specifically.

Reggie may have not mentioned it, but they shut it down as soon as try heard about it.

Sakurai is trying to make leaks seem fake, while using his typical trolly and confusing manner.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

I don't think Sakurai's following any leaks.
He's got a game to work on and an arm to suffer from.

 

[Pacack]

I don't think Sakurai's following any leaks.
He's got a game to work on and an arm to suffer from.

Well, to be fair, the man is perfectly insane.

 

[Wario Bros.]

I don't think Sakurai's following any leaks.
He's got a game to work on and an arm to suffer from.

Of course he doesn't. Why should he bother when he's the only leaker who actually know everything.

 

[ToothiestAura]

I have a little theory.

Sakurai randomly announced Lucario to distract people from all the leaks.
Especially the Translator Leak.

The Translator Leak said the next character revealed would be Diddy in February.
Sakurai could have randomly announced Lucario to make everyone think, "Oh the leak was wrong. It is all untrue!" While Sakurai announced if for the soul purpose of making the leak sound fake.

The same goes for the Palutena statue. He posted that to make some people think Palutena won't be in and that the leak was fake.

So, problems with the translator leak:

1.) If you were the leaker you would ****ing know that Sakurai could change any reveal date he wants and therefore you would not base you entire leak's credibility upon the next character revealed. Unless you were a complete idiot.

2.) It's long since been proven that some Veteran reveals coincide with game release dates. We predicted Dedede and Zelda, does that mean we know stuff about the game? **** no.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

So, problems with the translator leak:

1.) If you were the leaker you would ****ing know that Sakurai could change any reveal date he wants and therefore you would not base you entire leak's credibility upon the next character revealed. Unless you were a complete idiot.

2.) It's long since been proven that some Veteran reveals coincide with game release dates. We predicted Dedede and Zelda, does that mean we know stuff about the game? **** no.

I am unsure about the leak so far.
But if there is a Diddy/Dixie tag-team, and especially if Fawful is an assist, I am going to believe it fully.

 

[ToothiestAura]

I am unsure about the leak so far.
But if there is a Diddy/Dixie tag-team, and especially if Fawful is an assist, I am going to believe it fully.

Ah. Just hopeful.

EDIT: Relevant post of mine from Thursday. (I predicted that Sakurai is unpredictable, woop).

We shouldn't pretend to understand Sakurai. Watch him pull something on anniversary. You know it's like him to lull us into a false sense of security and then strike.

...I forgot I said this. Shows us, doesn't it?