How can we predict reveals?

[M23-X0]

How can we predict reveals? We just can't xD

The release of Lucario made me think that maybe, because the release date of SSB4 is approaching, Sakurai has to increase the number of character reveal per month, don't you think ?

If there is still 25 characters left to reveal, and 6-7 months before the release of SSB4, it would mean 2-3 characters per months. So, Sakurai will reveal around 18 characters before the release, with about 7 hidden characters.

 

[YoshiandToad]

What's the conclusion? The reveal today was a proof Sakurai can still be unpredictable if he were interested in being unpredictable.

I think this cements that he enjoys being random for random's sake.

I know a lot of people try to justify Wii Fit Trainer, due to the influence it had on sales, Mr. Game and Watch and R.O.B due to their historical importance, a child Link in each version (despite stating no clones) due to the importance of the child Link and Ice Climbers because they're a retro rep with an ability only they could (allegedly) do, but...

I'm sort of convinced he just wants to be unpredictable for unpredictables sake at this point.

We can not contemplate the mind of a mad man. Let's just have Batman fight him on a rooftop and call it a day.

 

[Deleted member]

How can we predict reveals? We just can't xD

The release of Lucario made me think that maybe, because the release date of SSB4 is approaching, Sakurai has to increase the number of character reveal per month, don't you think ?

If there is still 25 characters left to reveal, and 6-7 months before the release of SSB4, it would mean 2-3 characters per months. So, Sakurai will reveal around 18 characters before the release, with about 7 hidden characters.

I'm just hoping that we get another trailer that confirms a whole slew of characters. Mostly the obvious returning characters like Yoshi, Ness, Captain Falcon, Ganondorf, Mr. Game & Watch, Meta Knight, Diddy Kong, and Wario.

 

[Knight Dude]

I'd like a trailer to show up too honestly. But outside of new characters, I have my doubts about stuff like that happening. At least not until the game is about to drop into the stores.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

We certainly can predict reveals. Sometimes they're just random, and those are unpredictable anyway. I mean we predicted Dedede and Zelda.

Marth was really the first left fielder. It became the big thing to align reveals with game releases to add hype. So characters in that vein are predictable. For example, I think we're basically assured Diddy at some point next month with Tropical Freeze. That would make sense.

The newcomers are unpredictable (besides possibly Palutena) so that is something that's a lot harder.

EDIT: Apparently in the comments, Sakurai mentioned something about how Lucario almost didn't make it into Brawl.Perhaps Brawl's anniversary has something to do with it?

 

[Wario Bros.]

Prior to Lucario, I kinda was ignoring anniversaries for predictions as we got nothing from Ice Climber's 30th and ESPECIALLY Super Smash Bros.'s 15th (the third games's 6th anni got something but not the first games's 15th???)

Sakurai is a strange, strange man.

 

[ShichibukaiJimbe]

I'm happy tha Lucario is in, but it's obvious it was ramdom. That cofirms the reveals to be either ramdom or based in new games, not in anniversaries.

 

[Chandeelure]

So...Lucario... HA! that was obvious!

 

[UltimateWario]

EDIT: Apparently in the comments, Sakurai mentioned something about how Lucario almost didn't make it into Brawl.Perhaps Brawl's anniversary has something to do with it?

That's what we're thinking.

On that, though, you guys think Mewtwo's relatively large amount of leftovers in Brawl have anything to do with Lucario's near-miss? Perhaps they were working on both, had to decide on one, and figured Lucario was the better investment?

If anyone caused Mewtwo to be left out, it was probably them working on Sonic as he was a last-minute addition.

I HAAAAAAATE THAT HEDGEHOOOOOOOOOOG

 

[True Blue Warrior]

If anyone caused Mewtwo to be left out, it was probably them working on Sonic as he was a last-minute addition.

 

[Chandeelure]

If anyone caused Mewtwo to be left out, it was probably them working on Sonic as he was a last-minute addition.

Mewtwo?

 

[Deleted member]

Probably been said before, but it is without a doubt now that anniversaries mean nothing.

And thus, I eat my words.

Though at the same time, this was for a Smash anniversary, not for another series, like the logic was for Wario, Ice Climbers, etc.

 

[BluePikmin11]

It's probably going to be Diddy(or +Dixie), then Sakurai will reveal a random character, I'll stick with Ike.

 

[Knight Dude]

I think if another random character were to show up it would be Falcon, Ness, or possibly even Ganondorf.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm going for Diddy Kong to get confirmed next.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I'm going for Diddy Kong to get confirmed next.

as long as there is no direct before DKCTF bingo

(because we might be right about sakurai revealing characters more often as we get closer and closer to smash bros wii u/3ds release)

and this is another bulleye for he may reveal all characters you have to unlock in smash bros wii u anyway theory (even though lucario could be a starter to unlock mewtwo)

finally can't wait to say IN YOUR FACE if he decides to reveal R.O.B before the release of the game

 

[Chandeelure]

I hope Diddy doesn't get revealed in February's Direct.
That would be a wasted opportunity for a newcomer announcement.

 

[BluePikmin11]

You know they could always reveal Diddy+Dixie duo. (Which is technically a newcomer in a sense)

 

[Luigi#1]

Why do people think Dixie and Diddy are together?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Why do people think Dixie and Diddy are together?

Because Sakurai previously planned them to be a duo in Brawl, so he may try again with the duo.

 

[Xigger]

Lucario joined the battle for the first time in Super Smash Bros. Brawl, which was released six years ago. The production staff of Brawl worked really hard to expand the character roster--without their efforts, Lucario probably never would have joined the battle.

Date: 1-31-2014
Brawl Japanese release date: 1-31-2014.

I thought you guys would have gotten it faster. I thought Smash fans would have known to expect it honestly. You should say there's new ways to predict rather than saying the new predictions make our old ways obsolete.

I'm looking at you,
(Lucario confirmed randomly)

 

[YoshiandToad]

Date: 1-31-2014
Brawl Japanese release date: 1-31-2014.

I thought you guys would have gotten it faster. I thought Smash fans would have known to expect it honestly. You should say there's new ways to predict rather than saying the new predictions make our old ways obsolete.

I'm looking at you,
(Lucario confirmed randomly)

Errr, we did. Like a few pages back. Go check if you don't believe me.

How the hell does this help find a new way to predict? We got a Rosalina move for Smash 64's far more impressive 15th Anniversary; the game that started it all, yet a random veteran for the 6th anniversary of Brawl?

Why Lucario anyway? What puts him above say...Meta Knight, who is Sakurai's last veteran creation, a starter veteran, one of the first newcomers for Brawl revealed, the top tier character in Smash Bros. Brawl and a huge part of the SSE plot? THAT would of made sense. Lucario's just...well, random.

Bare in mind X/Y also got no veteran at it's release either, which would of been a far more logical time to reveal Lucario(or Puff, or Trainer).

If you got some sort of insight into Sakurai's mind for this, then by all means share it, because frankly everyone else is totally stumped.

 

[Chandeelure]

Why Lucario anyway? What puts him above say...Meta Knight, who is Sakurai's last veteran creation, a starter veteran, one of the first newcomers for Brawl revealed, the top tier character in Smash Bros. Brawl and a huge part of the SSE plot? THAT would of made sense. Lucario's just...well, random.

Because Pikachu was alone
XD

 

[AncientTobacco]

Why Lucario anyway? What puts him above say...Meta Knight, who is Sakurai's last veteran creation, a starter veteran, one of the first newcomers for Brawl revealed, the top tier character in Smash Bros. Brawl and a huge part of the SSE plot? THAT would of made sense. Lucario's just...well, random.

Meta Knight right after Dedede? That wouldn't have made sense.

I guess Lucario was chosen because we were long overdue for another Pokemon character. Sakurai also explained in the Miiverse comment that Lucario wouldn't have joined the battle without the hard work of Brawl team. So there's that too.

 

[XStarWarriorX]

Guess i'm the only one that thought marth was revealed near the first FE intentional release. (US anny)

which gives me false hope for a foreshadow to lyn in April, with the JP anny.

lucario wasn't random, it was brawl's anny. though that sneaky sakurai though, he could have shown a 64 character, wario, or the IC's. but went with Anubis.

Makes me believe that the maximum characters revealed each month will be at least 2. until release or a special event.

 

[BindingBlade]

Lucario itself was random, but the date wasn't (Japanese anniversary of Brawl's release).

 

[dimensionsword64]

This wasn't random. This was the anniversary of Brawl. It's not a coincidence.

 

[AEMehr]

And thus, I eat my words.

Though at the same time, this was for a Smash anniversary, not for another series, like the logic was for Wario, Ice Climbers, etc.

I disagree. Peach was still revealed on the Super Mario Bros. Anniversary. They hold some merit.

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

Wait so anniversaries still have meaning?

Pikmin 2's Japanese 10th anniversary is April 29th.

D-does this mean....?

Louie?

YES I KNOW I'M REACHING

 

[BluePikmin11]

Wait so anniversaries still have meaning?

Pikmin 2's Japanese 10th anniversary is April 29th.

D-does this mean....?

Louie?

YES I KNOW I'M REACHING

If it actually meant anything, I would think it will be Alph.

 

[BKupa666]

Lucario was a tad shocking, but a few surprises here and there doesn't mean there's no rhyme or reason to Sakurai's choices. Of course, there are people who like to claim that there's no rhyme or reason after every surprise as an excuse to not think anymore on the subject, but they're not in this thread, which was designed for the purpose of thinking, right? Right.

Okay, so basically, we're all banking on Diddy right around Tropical Freeze's release date. Big shock there. If Diddy does not get revealed on the website, there's the chance that he gets revealed in a Direct alongside Dixie as a duo character. Speaking of Dixie, we're definitely getting a Direct this month, and I'm quite confident that, if she's playable, she will be revealed in it. By the same token, if she's not revealed this month, I think her chances take a sizable hit, for the same reason Wonder Red's did back in September. Beyond that, if there's any other characters that would be revealed in the Direct, my money is on Palutena, just because of all of the ruckus surrounding her and her leak lately.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I actually thought if any newcomer DK character is going to be revealed hypothetically speaking, it was going to be K.Rool, though Dixie is certainly a possibility.

 

[BKupa666]

Dixie is like Rosalina in that, if she's in the game, it makes perfect sense for her to be revealed in close proximity to the game in which she's playable. With K. Rool, unless there's a Virtual Console rerelease of the original DKC trilogy that can lead into his trailer, I don't think he'd be revealed alongside Tropical Freeze since he's not in it. He can be saved for some other non-promotional reveal, like Mega Man, Villager, and WFT were.

Believe me, I'd love nothing more than to be proven wrong here.

 

[Deleted member]

I disagree. Peach was still revealed on the Super Mario Bros. Anniversary. They hold some merit.

No, as I've pointed out before, she wasn't.
She was revealed the day before.

 

[GreenKirby]

You know they could always reveal Diddy+Dixie duo. (Which is technically a newcomer in a sense)

Which is a stupid idea.

 

[BluePikmin11]

You never know though, the duo might actually be alot of fun with Sakurai in charge.

 

[Kon]

Which is a stupid idea.

especially because Sakurai has already tried to implement the duo and for some reason got rid of it. So after all, this idea of the duo Dixie + Diddy is already out of question: No way he would do such a thing. There is a whole process going on before kicking an idea and kicking the idea of Diddy+Dixie as one character slot isn't just done because Sakurai felt like waiting for the next SSB game to implement the Kong-team instead.
If you were to expect both Diddy and Dixie, then you should keep the idea of two separate characters rather than having the duo as one character slot. Especially thinking of DKCR and DKC:TF both speaking against the duo Diddy+Dixie.

As I mentionned already earlier in this thread, I'll go with Diddy as our next reveal on the japanese release of DKC:TF.

Maybe we get Dixie in the next Nintendo Direct after DKC:TF, but we could also get another character instead. I don't expect Palutena to be revealed in the next Direct as Sakurai is Sakurai, you know. He won't just reveal Palutena to confirm the leak.

So my two next predictions:
Diddy on February 13th
Dixie late February in the next Nintendo Direct

I might be wrong with my second prediction but you know: No risk, no fun.

There are some reasons I can think of and which make at least somehow sense: Dixie as the next newcomer would guarantee that people will even give DKC:TF after the release some attention due to the Nintendo Direct and an epic newcomer trailer of Dixie. Another point may be that we would have all DK veterans confirmed if Diddy were revealed on February 13th. So nothing stands in Dixie's way except Sakurai the unpredictable master himself.

 

[AEMehr]

No, as I've pointed out before, she wasn't.
She was revealed the day before.

Hm, I suppose he did reveal her six hours prior to it being SMB's anniversary.

But that doesn't mean it she wasn't released for that intended reason????

 

[Deleted member]

To say he would never do it is putting too much faith into it.
As it stands, it was a concept he wanted to implement but couldn't due to complications, so he might try it again now that he's got stronger hardware.

It all depends what we see when Diddy is revealed. Either he'll be alone again, or Dixie will accompany him as what Sakurai planned.

Hm, I suppose he did reveal her six hours prior to it being SMB's anniversary.

But that doesn't mean it she wasn't released for that intended reason????

No, it was a full day. The anniversary was September 13th.
Peach was revealed for September 12th's PotD.

 

[dezeray112]

I would say a part of the reveals are random and part of the reveals are coincided with the release dates for upcoming games.