How can we predict reveals?

[Koopaul]

When it comes right down to it, there's a decent chance a character will be revealed on a significant date, I'd say 60%. The other 40% is completely random and whever Sakurai feels like showing off someone.

So I say keep predicting. You got a 60% chance of being right.

 

[TumblrFamous]

Welp, banner be damned. That's pretty cool, I'm hoping for some more unpredictability.

Though I did correctly predict this reveal. Woo!

 

[Kon]

King Dedede on the 10th January or the 13th. Mark my words. Why? Because: King Dedede minigame in Triple Deluxe

 

[Wario Bros.]

This definitely confirms Sakurai goes for Japanese releases and not English ones. I'm still having bets on Kirby: Triple Deluxe, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, and Yoshi's New Island, to give us something.

 

[TumblrFamous]

This definitely confirms Sakurai goes for Japanese releases and not English ones. I'm still having bets on Kirby: Triple Deluxe, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, and Yoshi's New Island, to give us something.

What about Mario Kart 8? That could be Wario.

Other than those games, is there anything else coming out in the Spring?

 

[Kon]

Yarn Yoshi should be released in 2014. 2 Yoshi games, 2 Yoshi characters? ;D

 

[Wario Bros.]

What about Mario Kart 8? That could be Wario.

Other than those games, is there anything else coming out in the Spring?

Yeah, forgot about Mario Kart 8 and something can definitely relate to Smash there. We'll see.

 

[memememe]

So far, every veteran revealed via the site has coincided with a Nintendo release.
So I took a look at some upcoming releases and paired them with possible character updates. This includes potential newcomers:

Chibi-Robo Photo Finder (January 9, 2014): Chibi-Robo
Kirby Triple Deluxe (January 11, 2014): King Dedede, Meta Knight
Donkey Kong: Tropical Freeze (February 2014): Diddy Kong, Dixie Kong, K. Rool, Cranky Kong
Professor Layton and the Azran Legacy (February 28, 2014): Professor Layton
Mario Kart 8 (Spring 2014): Yoshi, Toad, Wario, Waluigi, Baby Bros.
Yoshi's New Island (Spring 2014): Yoshi, Baby Bros., Kamek

Obviously there are other games too that might see some newcomers/veterans revealed but have no definitive release date yet (Hyrule Warriors, Yarn Yoshi, etc.)
I also didn't take into account releases in other countries; Japan saw A Link Between Worlds released today, which is why Zelda was revealed today and not in November; this might be a factor too.

 

[TumblrFamous]

So far, every veteran revealed via the site has coincided with a Nintendo release.
So I took a look at some upcoming releases and paired them with possible character updates. This includes potential newcomers:

Chibi-Robo Photo Finder (January 9, 2014): Chibi-Robo
Kirby Triple Deluxe (January 11, 2014): King Dedede, Meta Knight
Donkey Kong: Tropical Freeze (February 2014): Diddy Kong, Dixie Kong, K. Rool, Cranky Kong
Professor Layton and the Azran Legacy (February 28, 2014): Professor Layton
Mario Kart 8 (Spring 2014): Yoshi, Toad, Wario, Waluigi, Baby Bros.
Yoshi's New Island (Spring 2014): Yoshi, Baby Bros., Kamek

Obviously there are other games too that might see some newcomers/veterans revealed but have no definitive release date yet (Hyrule Warriors, Yarn Yoshi, etc.)
I also didn't take into account releases in other countries; Japan saw A Link Between Worlds released today, which is why Zelda was revealed today and not in November; this might be a factor too.

It's safe to assume he will only be using Japanese releases.

Still, for some of the "dry" months, he may just reveal a random character, like with Marth. So I can see characters like IC, Lucas, and Ike be revealed randomly.

 

[BluePikmin11]

So Sakurai does reveal Zelda, hmm.. he might go standard or be unpredictable. Meh, I guess I'll never know.

 

[Kon]

So Sakurai does reveal Zelda, hmm.. he might go standard or be unpredictable. Meh, I guess I'll never know.

He'll just mix up both ways to stay unpredictable. As we consider him unpredictable, he uses the opportunity to be some times predictable while we wait for unpredictable reveals xD

 

[Starbound]

If they're revealing Wario pre-release, then either Sakurai will reference Mario Kart 8 in the update, or he'll bring up Game & Wario retroactively.

Thinking Dedede some time between January 3 and January 17.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Maybe he could reveal Metaknight just to be unpredictable.

 

[Kon]

Maybe he could reveal Metaknight just to be unpredictable.

He'll reveal Captain Falcon to be even more unpredictable ;D

 

[BluePikmin11]

Kirby is Sakurai's series, so at the very least we could get something Kirby related if it's not a character.

 

[Deleted member]

If they're revealing Wario pre-release, then either Sakurai will reference Mario Kart 8 in the update, or he'll bring up Game & Wario retroactively.

Thinking Dedede some time between January 3 and January 17.

If they reveal him around Mario Kart 8, then I bet that Sakurai would link to the Game & Wario website.

I'm thinking that we will get King Dedede next month and hopefully Meta Knight soon. If we get them and no mention of Bandana Dee, then I see hope for him.

Maybe he could reveal Metaknight just to be unpredictable.

I would be OK with that! I would love to see my second main get confirmed!

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Well the banner theory is worse now

But the promoting games one is higher

Who know's which veteran(s) or newcomer will be revealed in januray/2014 months

 

[Koopaul]

If there's one thing I know, it's that he seems to only reveal Newcomers at special events like a Nintendo Direct or E3. He COULD have revealed Rosalina on the Japanese date of Super Mario 3D World. But he didn't, he waited until the next Nintendo Direct.

I'm almost certain he'll do this with all Newcomers.

 

[Jumpman84]

If there's one thing I know, it's that he seems to only reveal Newcomers at special events like a Nintendo Direct or E3. He COULD have revealed Rosalina on the Japanese date of Super Mario 3D World. But he didn't, he waited until the next Nintendo Direct.

I'm almost certain he'll do this with all Newcomers.

Well, seeing as how each newcomer has a trailer, it makes more sense then a normal website update would be.

But now I wish Sakurai would make retroactive newcomer trailers for the veterans now...

 

[xpnc]

But now I wish Sakurai would make retroactive newcomer trailers for the veterans now...

agreed

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Yarn Yoshi should be released in 2014. 2 Yoshi games, 2 Yoshi characters? ;D

I think Yoshi is good enough for the Yoshi's Island reps.

 

[Kon]

I think Yoshi is good enough for the Yoshi's Island reps.

May be true, but people are considering a second F-Zero character and in that context a second Yoshi character would deserve it more. However as newcomer are shown at events like E3 or Nintendo Directs, we don't get a Yoshi newcomer for the release of a game, but if we get one, then also in a ND or at E3.

What people might not consider but should be considered: In every installment, there are franchises with only one rep getting a second. And while looking at the one rep franchises, Yoshi and Wario seem not that far away. (and Kid Icarus could also get a 2nd one but that's it)

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Any bets on January 11th for meta knight or dedede or the newcomer waddle dee

For kirby triple deluxe in japan

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

May be true, but people are considering a second F-Zero character and in that context a second Yoshi character would deserve it more. However as newcomer are shown at events like E3 or Nintendo Directs, we don't get a Yoshi newcomer for the release of a game, but if we get one, then also in a ND or at E3.

What people might not consider but should be considered: In every installment, there are franchises with only one rep getting a second. And while looking at the one rep franchises, Yoshi and Wario seem not that far away. (and Kid Icarus could also get a 2nd one but that's it)

I guess all that I'm saying is that the Yoshi's Island reps is complete with just Yoshi alone. In fact, the Yoshi and Wario franchises pretty much don't need any new reps at all.

 

[Deleted member]

Any bets on January 11th for meta knight or dedede or the newcomer waddle dee

For kirby triple deluxe in japan

I think that we will get Bandana Dee once Meta Knight and King Dedede get confirmed. Bandana Dee would get revealed in a Nintendo Direct.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

posting this now, if a veteran is revealed, I'm calling that he/she will be revealed on January 9th, and I think it will be king dedede that will be revealed
just posting it now to see if I'm right later on

 

[Kon]

posting this now, if a veteran is revealed, I'm calling that he/she will be revealed on January 9th, and I think it will be king dedede that will be revealed
just posting it now to see if I'm right later on

Would be great to get a reveal on my birthday, but I feel like if there were a reveal for Triple Deluxe, then it would rather be on Friday the 10th or Monday the 13th. Well, it doesn't make sense to discuss about speculative reveal days now, still I wanted to add my two points there.

What I would also appreciate would be the return of the Pics of the Day with a veteran being revealed. That would definitely be an epic comeback of PotD.

 

[BluePikmin11]

posting this now, if a veteran is revealed, I'm calling that he/she will be revealed on January 9th, and I think it will be king dedede that will be revealed

just posting it now to see if I'm right later on

You never know, he might go for Metaknight instead.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Would be great to get a reveal on my birthday, but I feel like if there were a reveal for Triple Deluxe, then it would rather be on Friday the 10th or Monday the 13th. Well, it doesn't make sense to discuss about speculative reveal days now, still I wanted to add my two points there.

What I would also appreciate would be the return of the Pics of the Day with a veteran being revealed. That would definitely be an epic comeback of PotD.

true it would make more sense for it to be on Friday or Monday, but I feel like going to be the odd one out and call it a day earlier

You never know, he might go for Metaknight instead.

he might, but I feel king dedede would be more likelier, just my guess

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Would be great to get a reveal on my birthday, but I feel like if there were a reveal for Triple Deluxe, then it would rather be on Friday the 10th or Monday the 13th. Well, it doesn't make sense to discuss about speculative reveal days now, still I wanted to add my two points there.

What I would also appreciate would be the return of the Pics of the Day with a veteran being revealed. That would definitely be an epic comeback of PotD.

well my head is saying that maybe when he comes back on the 6th the update will be character 21 but I think it will be saved for like Thursday or Friday

 

[The Light Music Club]

The reveals will probably be like this (If all these people get in..)

1)King Dedede (January)
2)Professor Layton (Feb)
3) Diddy Kong (Feb)
4) Yoshi (Feb)

We might get another character in January (Most likely Captain Falcon, Ness, or Jiggly)

That's how I see it anyway. I think Layton is Feb only because he announced Luigi when Dream Team came here.

 

[GuyWithTheFace]

He'll reveal Captain Falcon to be even more unpredictable ;D

He'll reveal Reggie, to be literally the least predictable game developer ever. XD

 

[Spire]

I guess all that I'm saying is that the Yoshi's Island reps is complete with just Yoshi alone. In fact, the Yoshi and Wario franchises pretty much don't need any new reps at all.

I agree. Yoshi and Wario carry and perfectly represent their respective series. I'd say the same goes for F-Zero. Captain Falcon fully embodies the spirit of F-Zero and any additional F-Zero characters would require as much [forced] invention to be playable that it seems completely unnecessary. I'm not against F-Zero gaining another representative, but I don't think it's a series that needs one.

I will say, the popular "Black Shadow / Ganondorf" clone idea for Project M could be a good move on Sakurai's part as well. Create a proper moveset for Ganondorf so he reflects his incarnations in The Legend of Zelda and port his existing "heavy C. Falcon" moveset to Black Shadow for those who enjoy playing Ganondorf in Melee and Brawl. It's a win-win-win situation.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I think we can make a fairly good prediction on a Kirby character for January, and likely Diddy Kong in February for Tropical Freeze. Unless of course he decides to be random and give us a DK newcomer.

After that the only other big release of the Spring is Mario Kart 8, which can give us Wario or Yoshi.

But veteran wise, we still need:

Meta Knight/Dedede (assuming we get one next month)
Ike
Ness
Lucas
Ice Climbers
G&W
R.O.B
Captain Falcon
Lucario
Jiggles
Pokémon Trainer
Yoshi
Wario
Diddy
Snake
Zero Suit Samus
Sheik

So really, if we get a veteran a month, it would be 18 months. Unless Sakurai changes plans and gives us more than one a month, we're not going to see all of them before release if the game comes out next year.

We're going to get a lot of random reveals in the next year, so it will be even more difficult to predict.

 

[Spire]

I don't see Mewtwo and Roy on that list.

If Pokémon Z happens to be announced and launches before Smash 4, we'll probably get a reveal on its release considering he skipped X/Y.

 

[The Light Music Club]

I think we can make a fairly good prediction on a Kirby character for January, and likely Diddy Kong in February for Tropical Freeze. Unless of course he decides to be random and give us a DK newcomer.

After that the only other big release of the Spring is Mario Kart 8, which can give us Wario or Yoshi.

But veteran wise, we still need:

Meta Knight/Dedede (assuming we get one next month)
Ike
Ness
Lucas
Ice Climbers
G&W
R.O.B
Captain Falcon
Lucario
Jiggles
Pokémon Trainer
Yoshi
Wario
Diddy
Snake
Zero Suit Samus
Sheik

So really, if we get a veteran a month, it would be 18 months. Unless Sakurai changes plans and gives us more than one a month, we're not going to see all of them before release if the game comes out next year.

We're going to get a lot of random reveals in the next year, so it will be even more difficult to predict.

Personally, I don't even think that we will get SSB4 any time soon, as it will probably be pushed back just like SSBB. Also I don't think all the Vets are going to be coming back (Ike, Lucario, Lucas, Wolf, R.O.B) and I think that he won't be going one a month, since we got Toon Link and Sonic very close to one another. At some point, if he plans on revealing the entire cast, and not just the starters, then announcements will have to be coming in faster. Maybe have PT and Jiggs in one day and ZSS and Shiek another (sincs both are transformations). Maybe even Wario and Yoshi together. We will get Yoshi soon as he is the only one of the "Elite Eight" to not be announced yet and it was the same way for SSBB. I also think we will get Falcon, Ness, or Jiggs in January since we will probably get Dedede. We will most definitely get 3 characters a month at least soon, if he wants the roster all out at estimated time of release.

 

[Swift Fox]

If Pokémon Z happens to be announced and launches before Smash 4, we'll probably get a reveal on its release considering he skipped X/Y.

The 3rd version usually take 1-2 full years ahead of first two versions, so I can't see it happening.

 

[Staarih]

I'm on board with Dedede in January, Diddy in February and Yoshi whenever Yoshi's New Island/Yarn Yoshi come out. Maybe Wario when Mario Kart 8 comes out. I'm hoping for a Pokémon veteran to be shown soon, we only have Pikachu so far and it's usually a franchise with quite many characters. While "Pokémon Z" may not happen during this time, I'm confident some other, minor Pokémon game will.

 

[Kon]

We will get Yoshi soon as he is the only one of the "Elite Eight" to not be announced yet and it was the same way for SSBB.

I expect Yoshi for the release of either Yarn Yoshi on WiiU or Yoshi's New Island on 3DS. I feel like this was the main reason to hold Yoshi back as Sakurai can later on use Yoshi to push one of the two titles. It would be rather stupid to throw the potential of advertising a Yoshi game away for some random reveal.
These are the veterans I expect to be randomly revealed: Captain Falcon, R.O.B., Game&Watch, Lucario, Jigglypuff, Pokémon Trainer, Shiek, Ganondorf, ZSS, Ness, Lucas, Ice Climbers and either Metaknight or King Dede(depending on who will be confirmed on January for Triple Deluxe)
Wario for Mario Kart 8 release seems possible.

I guess if Mewtwo or Roy returns in SSB4, then Sakurai will show them in a Nintendo Direct.

Maybe one Pokémon character will be used for the return of Pokémon Bank in the eShop in order to make sure everyone notices that Pokémon Bank is back after this well surprising disappearance from the eShop.

Also I guess we get Shiek and Ganondorf next as random reveals. (Look at the Super Mario series where all characters are already known and another newcomer besides Rosalina is unlikely)
As for now, we know already 3 Legend of Zelda characters.

Btw in my opinion Sakurai will change his rythm of revealing veterans soon too in order to reveal the veterans and also a few newcomer right before the release of SSB4.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Personally, I don't even think that we will get SSB4 any time soon, as it will probably be pushed back just like SSBB. Also I don't think all the Vets are going to be coming back (Ike, Lucario, Lucas, Wolf, R.O.B) and I think that he won't be going one a month, since we got Toon Link and Sonic very close to one another. At some point, if he plans on revealing the entire cast, and not just the starters, then announcements will have to be coming in faster. Maybe have PT and Jiggs in one day and ZSS and Shiek another (sincs both are transformations). Maybe even Wario and Yoshi together. We will get Yoshi soon as he is the only one of the "Elite Eight" to not be announced yet and it was the same way for SSBB. I also think we will get Falcon, Ness, or Jiggs in January since we will probably get Dedede. We will most definitely get 3 characters a month at least soon, if he wants the roster all out at estimated time of release.

Lol you think R.O.B is going to get cut? That isn't going to happen.

Ike and Lucario were fairly popular are will likely be priority characters.

In general, if we get cuts, it will be minimal. So probably no more than two. There are no "uber popular" characters like Sonic to delay the game, and so far there is no indication a delay will be needed.