Halloween Party Mafia ~ Over! Who drowned bobbing for apples? Who won Best Costume?

[#HBC | Dancer]

*ahem* *ahem*

Ignore that man behind the curtain.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Okay I was just trolling Soup, no need to go any more.

I'm out.

 

[Asdioh]

What am I playing fooooooOOOOOOOORRRRR

 

[July]

Does Ryker not like you or something? ಠ_ಠ
Ryker picking Moth is definitely a possibility, he seems to talk about how Moth is underrated or whatever very often.

Vult's actions seem the most suspicious, but I have to empathize with him a little because I was a JoaT in Touhou and didn't get anything useful done with my shots (got an inno on someone who died a couple days later, vigged a bulletproof guy, docced the BP indy)
If Vult's mafia, I would have to consider Moth as a likely buddy because of that inno.

If JTB is town, then obviously he and X1 are telling the truth and X1 really is Rufus. I have trouble seeing Rufus being called a "leader of the light," but whatever. I thought it would be really strange to simply have one player be immune to being yakked, but since he claims that Dumbledore (Swiss) was the same role, it makes a tiny bit more sense.



Btw the thing about JTB hammering literally two minutes before deadline... even if he didn't, it would mean 7 players left toDay instead of 6, with presumably 3 scum instead of 2. Scum still wouldn't have won without another mislynch or no lynch, and leaving her alive would make her look even more suspicious, and possibly incriminate JTB further for not hammering, thus hurting scum more than him hammering.
tl;dr I'm taking it into consideration, but mostly thinking of it as wifom.

I don't know if Ryker doesn't like me, it's just our playstyles clash hard and I think we disagree about most things when it comes to theory.

Wrt Vult's night actions, I just find it really strange that aa would be mafia killed and vigged on the same night and he happened to cop the confirmed town mason who had just claimed the Day before. Everything just fits together really well to leave no way to prove his claims, and I still don't like his reaction to the Tandora lynch. ALSO, not a fan of "why are you focusing on me" toDay reaction to being on my scum list when he was there yesterDay anyways and at this point we do need to consider everyone's PLAY and their claim.

JTB can be town and X1 scum and still be Rufus if he was the one yakked. The fact of the matter is that we don't know what "Town Leader of Light" actually does.

As for JTB not being town based on that alone, I agree its not anything solid. JTB just is a town read for me and I don't see him pushing so hard or making so much effort the past couple Days as scum. Also did JTB replace Acrostic? If so then I even more highly doubt that he's scum, definitely not yakked as EBR switched the D2 wagon hard in Acrostic's direction, which wouldn't make sense if you planned to yak them, and I doubt he was scum from the get-go. At this point, I need some definitives and I'm going to say I'm pretty strong on JTB town.

Moth, I might suggest unvoting, just because I've seen bad things happen too often in these situations. ducktalesawkwardmoments

Don't forget that No Lynch is a valid option toDay, as unappealing as it sounds.

I'm not in favor of a no lynch, we need to get something done toDay.

actually, I'm findingit really difficult to find X1 scum with my result on him since his claim fits the flavor perfectly and rufus as a bad guy makes literally no sense.

What night did you flavor cop X1? Once again, Rufus is legit as an original role, but if he was yakked then that could either be his original role but his alignment could have changed.

OKAY:

JTB- Town read, I'm willing to consider him town and am taking him out of my own lynch pool.

Asdioh- JTB raised a lot of good points, but I can't, CAN'T help feel like Asdioh has been townie and Ran's slot was very town imo. I don't think Ran started as scum, and I don't see Kuz and Ryker ever yakking Ran.

Also, there is a point that is missing from our consideration of the claims. People could be lying about what their role actually does, or what their actual role did before they were yakked. For example, if someone was Harry Potter, cop and then they were yakked, they would not only get a new role, they would lose their old powers. So if Asdioh was back-up to someone who was yakked, he would never step up to their power, their role essentially becomes null. Also if the newly yakked player was forced to claim, he might not claim cop because then he has to fake all his results. Ultimately I still don't see Asdioh as scum, I think that JTB and Asdioh are town and scum lies in X1, Shadow Moth, or Vult.

Shadow Moth- DAMN YOU EBR >< I remember waaay back right before they died they said this:

Yeah, here's an AtE. I thought I had a hydra and I didn't. I've never been caught up in this game, so I really have no motivation to catch up, but it's not like I can replace out because that's a ***** move especially in this game.

Lynch Vult, Jdioh, Gova with a safety net of Swiss. Gheb, X1, and, above all else, Moth are town.

Never figured out the flavor. Haven't guessed today as I have no idea and feel like I'm looking in the opposite direction.

Ciao!

Vote: Asdioh as it's the second biggest wagon.

Change that safety net to Swiss/Tandora.

His lynch pool was all town so far until he added Tandora as an after thought, would he really list only town in his lynch pool? Would he put Vult first in his lynch line if he was going to yak him? And there is no way both X1 and Moth are town, it's just which freaking one is scum....

Gah I really like Shadow's play lately, he's confirmed town via masonry and despite Gova's point about Sang/Moth having a disconnect in thread, if they didn't guess the theme until it was revealed then that does make some sense. Ugggghhh....overall I think that I have more faith in Shadow Moth being town than Vult and X1.

VULT: Yeah like I said before, there are a lot of things about his play I don't like recently, and I liked Soup's play but something about the Soup/EBR interactions doesn't sit well with me rereading it...the EBR side seems fake. At this point the only thing that makes me worry about lynching Vult is that everyone seems on board for the lynch. I still think this is the best lynch for toDay, I do think Vult/X1 or Vult/Shadow is the most likely scum combination.

X1: So freaking gahhh. I don't like his recent play, and like I said after the J lynch he has just been letting things ride and not really putting much effort into scum picks. His play toDay has also been very focused on keeping the lynch pool OPEN instead of trying to narrow down suspects, and that makes me worry he was trying to keep things open and force a rushed lynch and possibly a mislynch (rushed lynch might still happen ><).

FoS: Vult

Consider that as good as a vote.

A couple questions:

Shadow Moth: What is your actual role called, and do you have any abilities other than the masonry?

JTB: What Night did you target X1? (if I asked this already sorry but I couldn't find it)

Vult: Why did you say that "obviously" you had to use your cop shot before your vig shot?

 

[Asdioh]

wow WOW ok NOW you post right as i'm going to bed

 

[July]

What am I playing fooooooOOOOOOOORRRRR

To avenge this guys death:

 

[July]

wow WOW ok NOW you post right as i'm going to bed

Not my fault, I had a paper due at midnight

 

[Asdioh]

waaaaaaaait hold on.

I forgot about that.

Vult claimed to vig AA on Night Something, right?
Who did you Jail on that night?

 

[Asdioh]

EBR switched the D2 wagon hard in Acrostic's direction, which wouldn't make sense if you planned to yak them

That makes perfect sense, actually.

 

[July]

waaaaaaaait hold on.

I forgot about that.

Vult claimed to vig AA on Night Something, right?
Who did you Jail on that night?

Yeah, he claims that he vigged aa the Night he was janned, which means it was N5...in my post where I compiled people's actions I messed that up, I thought it was N6. So according to this:

QUOTE=Vult Redux;13488030]I got an Innocent on Smoth, I shot AA on the same night he was janned, and I protected Smoth last night.

My JTB vote was a tentative, ball-rolling vote.

I'll try to catch up tonight[/QUOTE]

He used cop N4 on Shadow, vig on AA N5, and doc on Shadow Moth N6.

N5 I jailed X1

 

[July]

^fail quote lol

 

[JTB]

I targeted X1 N3 and N4.

I read your post, but I honestly just need to sleep and think on Asdioh because this game and all its uncertainties is confusing as hell.

 

[Shadow Moth]

My actual role is called "Town Marauder-Mason" just like Sang.

The Marauder part is just flavor though so I didn't really think it was necessary to specify in my claim the exact name. And masonry with Sang is my only ability. I'm pretty much a VT now.

 

[X1-12]

July I'd stick with guessing that SM wasn't recruited because its like he's been playing in the exact same way all game.

 

[Asdioh]

Well, it seems likely that either Vult or Moth is scum, because there hasn't been an alpha. :/

 

[Asdioh]

Are you freaking serious.

Just ****ing lynch vult. Now.

 

[Shadow Moth]

X1 and July why aren't you guys voting Vult already?

 

[X1-12]

Vote: Vult Redux

 

[Asdioh]

X1 and July why aren't you guys voting Vult already?

jk X1 ninja

July why aren't you voting Vult already?

 

[July]

I haven't voted Vult yet because I wanted everyone's input, especially Vult's but it looks like that isn't going to happen. Well actually, silence is a pretty telling answer.

Vote: Vult Redux

 

[Asdioh]

Vult hasn't logged on since the 18th, but yeah.

:/

glhf

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Votecount 8-3

4/6 to lynch.

Vult Redux [4]: Shadow Moth, Asdioh, X1-12, July
Asdioh [1]: JTB

Not voting: Vult Redux

------------------------------------------------------------

[collapse=Vote Log] X1-12 > Vult Redux
JTB > Asdioh > Asdioh
July > Vult Redux
Vult Redux
Asdioh > Vult Redux > Unvote > Vult Redux
Shadow Moth > Vult Redux
[/collapse]

A lynch has been reached!

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Night 8

Four people lazily beat Vult Redux to death with what little strength they could squeeze out of their malnourished limbs.

As he lays dying, his body begins to gruesomely transfigure into another face -- his actual face.

Vult Redux was dressed as Winston Churchill, as seen in Into the Storm (2009). He was actually Barty Crouch Jr., Mafia Godfather.​

Night 8 starts now and lasts 48 hours.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Day 9!

All five people meet at sunup to face the day. No one died last night.

Day 9 starts now. Deadline is 10/30 at 11:59 p.m. EST.
With 5 players remaining, it takes 3 votes to lynch.

 

[JTB]

Who did you jail july?

 

[JTB]

Request deadline extension until October 31st

 

[Asdioh]

also request deadline extension for halloween purposes

Who did you jail july?

 

[Asdioh]

Hopefully people will participate toDay.

I know we spent the last two Days lynching mafia and all, but my god it was like pulling teeth.

 

[July]

Request deadline extension for halloween purposes as well

I jailed Shadow Moth last night.

JTB, are still looking at Asdioh toDay?

I'm standing by my town reads on JTB and Asdioh, so I see toDay as decisively between Shadow Moth or X1 as mafia.

Also, three options:

1) Shadow was scum and I roleblocked him.
2) Shadow was town and I protected him.
3) Scum didn't kill to create wifom.

 

[July]

Hopefully people will participate toDay.

I know we spent the last two Days lynching mafia and all, but my god it was like pulling teeth.

YesterDay did get dragged on but if Vult came back in with a response, a vote, or really anything, trying to see what direction he pushed in for after his flip. In the beginning of the Day all he said was that people shouldn't be focused on him when there are two "Town Leaders of Light" and multiple back-ups, but he didn't give town/scum reads at all -_-

Also, mafia godfather I'm pretty sure means he was scum from the get-go.

 

[Asdioh]

I'm not going to clear him as town, despite being a confirmed mason, and despite leading the wagon on Vult.

I just realized we can afford a ML, which is sweet.

We're looking for the Yak target, and hopefully there are no more indies left.

I'm finding it hard to see X1 as mafia, but his apathetic play makes him harder to read.

 

[JTB]

We are no longer in mylo since you were able to block the kill last Night, so we have a bit more leeway with who we lynch. I find it really unlikely that scum didn't send in a kill as well since they need us to be in mylo.

Here's where I stand with Asdioh. There is ALOT of speculation here and I can't be bothered to go back and check specifics tonight, so take what I write with a grain of salt.

Mad Eye Moody was obviously Vult's safeclaim since he flipped Barty Crouch Jr, meaning he wasn't the yakuza target and it makes sense regarding the flavor. So, our yakuza target is the last one alive.

July - Minerva McGonagall, Town Transfiguration Jailer
JTB - Horace Slughorn, Town Potions Backup

X1-12 - Rufus Scrimgeour, Town Leader of the Light
Ran/Asdioh - Prof. Flitwick, Town Backup
Shadow Moth - Remus Lupin, Town Marauder-Mason

We know there is still a redirector in the game. If we are assuming the yakuza target keeps all their town abilities and gains none, Shadow Moth cannot be the redirector, leaving Asdioh and X1.

Between X1 and Asdioh, Asdioh's claim feels alot weaker. I knew that X1 was Rufus before he claimed and Leader of the Light is exactly what I expect of Rufus. The backup role doesn't make sense at all now since everyone he could be backup for is dead. What if Asdioh was actually Town Redirector from the start but instead claimed backup?

But, there are some conflicts with Asdioh scum. There was no kill last Night when there should've been if he was scum and a redirector. Why scum would choose to no kill is beyond me since without a kill, we are out of mylo.

So, this leaves me with this far fetched conclusion.

1) Asdioh is not scum. Last Nights events dont make sense at all if he were scum.
2) X1 is not scum for the same exact reasons.
3) Shadow Moth must be the last scum. When he switched alignments, he must have been given the power to redirect.

However, it is entirely possible that the redirector died with Tandora or Vult. wifomwifomwifom

 

[JTB]

1. Copy
2. Hide
3. Bus
4. Block
5. Redirect
6. Protect
7. Miscellaneous
8. Kill
9. Recruit
10. Inspect

Based on NAR, I would be willing to lynch Shadow Moth right now and if he flipped town for some reason, Asdioh toMorrow.

 

[JTB]

Roleblocker/Rolestopper correspond with Block, Bus Driver/Redirector correspond with Redirect, with Block > Redirect. If either of the slashed pairs (or similar roles) exist in tandem, then the individual roles would have hidden game-specific priorities to resolve resolution conflicts.

Confirmed by nabe as well.

 

[JTB]

Vote: Shadow Moth

Sorry Nabe, I don't want to wait until Halloween to see a flip

 

[July]

I'm not going to clear him as town, despite being a confirmed mason, and despite leading the wagon on Vult.

I just realized we can afford a ML, which is sweet.

We're looking for the Yak target, and hopefully there are no more indies left.

I'm finding it hard to see X1 as mafia, but his apathetic play makes him harder to read.

Two things make me very skeptical of Shadow Moth: 1) Vult claimed that he used his non-existent cop on Shadow Moth to get an inno and his non-existent doc to protect Shadow Moth, and 2) That damn statement from EBR that Shadow Moth is "above all others" town -_- #2 is tremendously wifom-y and that makes it even worse.

Anyways, back to speculation on the mechanics of yaks. I see three possibilities for how the yak target was chosen:

1) EBR got to chose pre-game who would be yakked upon their lynch (like in Time Travelers)

2) EBR got to pick at the time of their death who would be yakked.

3) EBR didn't pick; when EBR died there was a role that automatically shifted alignments.

If #1 is true, there is no way they chose to yak Ran ahead of time, and they wouldn't push Acrostic so hard D2 because that wouldn't make sense to push the person that will be yakked ahead of themselves. Of X1 and Shadow Moth, I think X1 is more likely to have been chosen if #1 is true.

If #2 is true, still doesn't make much sense to yak either Ran or Acrostic, both were inactive and Acrostic wagon was gaining the support of Gheb and had potential to continue even after EBR's death. In this case, I think it's a toss up on who would be more likely between Shadow and X1; X1 was playing safer but Shadow Moth wasn't on too many peoples' radar that I remember.

If #3 is true, making it so that one of the confirmed town masons gets yakked seems like possibility to me...basically a built in twist to the confirmed-town masonry".

 

[July]

We are no longer in mylo since you were able to block the kill last Night, so we have a bit more leeway with who we lynch. I find it really unlikely that scum didn't send in a kill as well since they need us to be in mylo.

Here's where I stand with Asdioh. There is ALOT of speculation here and I can't be bothered to go back and check specifics tonight, so take what I write with a grain of salt.

Mad Eye Moody was obviously Vult's safeclaim since he flipped Barty Crouch Jr, meaning he wasn't the yakuza target and it makes sense regarding the flavor. So, our yakuza target is the last one alive.

July - Minerva McGonagall, Town Transfiguration Jailer
JTB - Horace Slughorn, Town Potions Backup

X1-12 - Rufus Scrimgeour, Town Leader of the Light
Ran/Asdioh - Prof. Flitwick, Town Backup
Shadow Moth - Remus Lupin, Town Marauder-Mason

We know there is still a redirector in the game. If we are assuming the yakuza target keeps all their town abilities and gains none, Shadow Moth cannot be the redirector, leaving Asdioh and X1.

Between X1 and Asdioh, Asdioh's claim feels alot weaker. I knew that X1 was Rufus before he claimed and Leader of the Light is exactly what I expect of Rufus. The backup role doesn't make sense at all now since everyone he could be backup for is dead. What if Asdioh was actually Town Redirector from the start but instead claimed backup?

But, there are some conflicts with Asdioh scum. There was no kill last Night when there should've been if he was scum and a redirector. Why scum would choose to no kill is beyond me since without a kill, we are out of mylo.

So, this leaves me with this far fetched conclusion.

1) Asdioh is not scum. Last Nights events dont make sense at all if he were scum.
2) X1 is not scum for the same exact reasons.
3) Shadow Moth must be the last scum. When he switched alignments, he must have been given the power to redirect.

However, it is entirely possible that the redirector died with Tandora or Vult. wifomwifomwifom

For the bolded, in TT when I was yakked I was informed that I "was no longer Chuck Goodrich and never would be again" and subsequently lost all my town powers and gained awesome sorceress powers that included, actually, a redirect power, an "influence" power to make someone vote whoever I chose for the rest of the Day, etc. So from experience I do think our yak is the redirector which does make me feel even better about a Shadow Moth lynch.

STILL, I do want to hear from X1 and Shadow Moth before we end the Day.

 

[JTB]

That makes me feel alot better about scumMoth, I've never read a game with a yakuza in it so I don't know much about how they works.

 

[Asdioh]

Well, we know for a fact that JTB does indeed have the power he claimed, since obviously he and X1 aren't scummates, and he knew X1's flavor ahead of time.

Spoiler

sigh indy pairs

We don't know for a fact that July's claim is true, unfortunately. I think she's most likely town though.

We know X1 is Rufus, and yeah.

We know X1 is Remus Lupin, town mason, but that he might have been yakked. :|

Did I mention I hate roles like this?

He probably got turned into werewolf form or something when EBR died

 

[Asdioh]

lol guys remember when Moth voted EBR despite EBR being dead? Think about that for a second.

If you think that Vult is scum then Asdioh must be scum as well because Vult is the only one left he could be a backup for. We already have a flipped nurse and July is the only claimed protective role. If you think Asdioh is town then Vult cannot be scum unless he was yakked.

Also don't forget this, Moth may have been trying to set this up, but he also probably expected to get a kill off last night.

Anyway, assuming we're looking for 2 remaining mafia, here are the possible combinations. The players we have left are July, Moth, X1, Vult, and JTB. I am town, unfortunately.

[collapse=combos]July/Moth
July/X1 (mostly because of X1 attacking her without needing to)
July/Vult (her recent attack on Vult)
July/JTB

Moth/X1 (Moth listed him as a scumpick a looong time ago, when there was no pressure on him)
Moth/Vult
Moth/JTB

X1/Vult
X1/JTB

Vult/JTB[/collapse]


That's only 10 possible combinations.
I struck out the ones I personally find the most unlikely, from what I remember and have read recently in this game >_> which I've been in over a month even though I replaced in D3 wtf large private games

Vult's slot is the slot I remember the least from.

I'm going to stop here for now. If you want to strike out any of these combinations, or add to them, please do so, we need to do something

I wonder if my brilliant combo list helps.



I wonder who I'm backup for. It could July, or hilariously it could be X1, so we could have 3-
well I can't really see Flitwick being "leader of the light"
Definitely McGonagall's role though. The only problem is that Gheb was Nurse, so I can see why JTB is concerned with my claim.
I'm not worried about it though.


Oh yeah, I must say, from what I saw of Soup's play (he replaced out before I replaced in, iirc) he was looking pretty townie.


Now I'm looking forward to Moth turning himself in.