I'm going to make a list on why I think Erdrick is the most likely candidate out of all of the seven characters on the SE list. You're free to dissect it and do whatever you want, but I'm tired of debating Erdrick in the Geno thread when the clear consensus is "Geno is better than Erdrick and I'd rather have Geno." Nothing wrong with that inherently, but it's not something that I can really debate against. So without further ado, here's why I think Erdrick is the one:
- Previous DLC pattern. If we're looking back on the DLC 3rd party newcomers, only one of them didn't have an extended history with Nintendo dating back to NES and SNES days, and that's Bayonetta who is considered the Smash 4 poll winner. Final Fantasy was a staple NES and SNES RPG series, Street Fighter 2 was a big SNES hit (and is the inspiration for Ryu's Smash moveset), and Joker comes from Persona, which is a spinoff series of the Shin Megami Tensei series. SMT started on Super Famicom and is clearly alive and kicking today so Joker fits the criteria. He technically has a history with Nintendo, and SMT's most recent entries are on Nintendo systems. SMT 4 is on 3DS and SMT 5 is supposedly for the Switch. Since Persona is just more popular nowadays, it's going to be represented over a mainline SMT game. Dragon Quest would fulfill this criteria because of it's introduction in the NES and it's legacy since then. Couple how Nintendo continuously tries to advertise a DQ game on their systems when they can, it's clear the history with DQ and Nintendo is fairly large and it dates back to a time long forgotten. Not to say Geno or Sora or even Crono don't have histories with Nintendo, but they're not as long or they're practically not being touched again.
- Leakers. I know this is a divisive subject in this thread, but the majority opinion for insiders have pretty much agreed it's Erdrick or at least looking to be Erdrick. Tansut, a dude who guessed Cloud and denounced the Grinch leak, is saying Erdrick and has been hinting at a SE rep before Erdrick become a hot topic. It seems he has reliable connections to SE and we can cautiously accept it. Vergeben's history at guessing what Smash newcomer will be in virtually untouched as of now. While a lot of his sources ****ed him over on other subjects, Smash characters are the one subject he hasn't faltered in, and that's really the biggest thing to look out for when we are discussing newcomers. Plus he does have more than one source so he's not dead yet. If he says a character is definitely in during the 3.0.0 wait, we can expect it. Currently he is backing Erdrick. Those are the two big leakers in my eyes, but the general acceptance that Dragon Quest is in isn't something to take for granted when a lot of people don't even care about it in the west. (Something constantly repeated in this thread.) Leakbait is a possibility, but I think an honest unleakable situation is either Joker or K. Rool, who kept themselves hidden throughout a lot of leaker speculation.
- General marketing for Dragon Quest. On its own, it might not mean much, but a consistent push for Dragon Quest on Nintendo consoles is telling that the series is at least on Nintendo's minds, especially in a business aspect. If they're still working together, it's not hard to see that Erdrick is possible. Plus actually gaining access to the orchestra soundtrack for DQ11, which is exclusive to the Switch release, means Nintendo can get DQ music into Smash no problem.
- Iconic (at least in Japan). There are literal displays dedicated to Dragon Quest in Japan. Supposedly, the series is so popular that people will skip school and mug you for the game. A lot of developers at Nintendo have fond memories with Dragon Quest. It is the grand daddy of JRPGs and working with the series, while not having worldwide appeal, is certainly without a doubt legendary. The worldwide appeal thing is not really a rule to begin with.
- Brave. Yuusha, DQ3's Japanese hero's title, literally translates to Brave. Stats were an initial concern, but those can certainly change. Joker had a height stat of 15, which is Luigi's height, and Joker is certainly not the height of someone who is 15 from what we saw of his model. The stats can change, making Brave more likely to just be Erdrick. Given how the codenames were removed from the game, it seems we were never meant to see these. Brave could legit just be Yuusha.
- There's probably more I can say but it's getting late and I'm hoping you see my point by now.
So yeah. The evidence isn't conclusive, but there's a lot to say about DQ being in Smash Bros. I could explain further in-depth, but it's a pointless endeavor at this point. While I want Geno in Smash, the circumstances surrounding him are nowhere near as powerful as DQ or even Kingdom Hearts or FF7. He was a character from one game and was only kept alive by a fanbase who's results are relatively small in the grand scheme. I mean King K Rool and Ridley got into Smash because of the fans for their series, but Nintendo is pushed for DKC and Metroid for them to be relevant again. If Nintendo made plans for Geno and Super Mario RPG in general, I could see them choosing him, but I'm tired. I've been vouching for him for about six months and recent turns of events have made me see possibilities in a different light. I would love him to be in Smash, but it's just so unlikely no matter what theory I see pulled from the limited information we have.
I could be wrong and that's why I have that 1% in my inference over his chances instead of 0%. If I am wrong, I'll be cheering alongside y'all. I support both so I'm at a point where I'm bashing my head against a wall to achieve nothing for me. I'll love both getting in despite having a preference over the other. Until this is all settled, I'll just meme.
Support doesn't mean throw **** at the wall and pretend it doesn't smell. You can still want a character in Smash and admit he isn't likely this time around. Look at virtually any small-time character thread that has not broke over ten pages. Doesn't stop people from wanting the character, but they can sure stop expecting him after a certain point.