Might as well put my Geno analysis here too:
Choosing Geno as a prediction was not an easy decision. I grew up playing Super Mario RPG on the Wii Virtual Console loving every second of the experience. I thought Geno was a very cool character back then and wanted him in Smash 4. That never happened. But, I was super astonished when Geno had his own Mii costume for Smash 4 DLC. I looked into the interview of Sakurai mentioning the story behind the Mii costume with him
stating:
"Geno:
—What led you to decide to make a Geno costume after all this time?
Sakurai: To tell the truth, it’s because I wanted Geno to be a playable character. He has a gun for a hand, and I think he fits in really well with
Smash. During
Brawl, I thought it would be great if I could add him, but in the end it didn’t become a reality."
I interpreted that comment as Square Enix being stingy about their properties. I thought he was not included because he was just a character from a one-off SNES game and never thought much about it since, slowly drifting away my hope for the puppet as time went on, never seriously considering him when it came to Smash Switch newcomer speculation. But, then I thought about critically. I thought about
Vergeben's rumor of Simon Belmont and Ridley being in Smash as his info quickly became more legitimate at E3. What these two choices hold in common was that they were generally perceived as impossible due to many reasons such as Konami being a bad company, the harsh treatment of Kojima, and Sakurai stating two times in Brawl/Smash 4 that Ridley would be impossible.
Thinking hypothetically, if Sakurai went that far to implement these characters in Smash Switch, despite the very difficult obstacles, I personally believe Sakurai would go beyond the line and negotiate Geno from Square Enix yet again. What I theorize about Smash 4 DLC was that the production for it had a lower budget. The evidence pointing to this is
Sakurai stating that they had a smaller team working on the DLC, noting that there were a smaller selection of songs to choose from (
pointing out the Midgar FF7 stage having only two non-remixed songs), and
Sakurai choosing to add the "most realizable and negotiable character" (Bayonetta) when it came to the Smash 4 ballot. I feel these budget constraints prevented Sakurai from negotiating beyond Cloud Strife for Smash 4 DLC, with the only affordable option left being to add Geno as a Mii costume.
Normally, I would say that Geno being a one-shot character and Square Enix being strict would damage his chance to be in Smash. But, I do not believe this to be an actual problem for Sakurai. He wanted Geno badly back in Brawl and Smash 4 because of his move-set potential, setting aside the fact that his appearance was one-time, being willing enough to get Geno as one of the only notable Mii costumes for Smash 4 DLC done for the fans. Considering that SMRPG was one of Square's biggest successes in history (
with SMRPG selling as massively as the huge Tomb Raider/Final Fantasy games), I feel the company would be fine with the idea of SMRPG being represented in Smash. The belief that Square Enix would strike against the idea of Geno being playable is a huge overstatement.
Square would be willing to make business to make Geno in Smash a reality, if the budget for negotiating characters for Smash Bros. allows it. With the opportunity being possible thanks to Smash Switch likely being a higher budget game, this would finally have Sakurai realize Geno for Smash Switch. The 13 year-long journey of Sakurai wanting Geno as a playable fighter would close in pure satisfaction for him and the immense number of hardcore Geno supporters. I am banking that he will add Geno again, making a dream finally come true.