Okay, so I'm back on Page 369 still and getting caught up, but I'm seeing talk about the Vifram figure and the gun again, and I had a thought.
Dataminers found that there was apparently a skipped number in the character files, like someone was planned and was later cut. Could be PP, could be a DLC fighter, could just be someone cut entirely.
Considering how far back Sakurai got the Vifram figure and how it doesn't match up to anything we've seen in the base game at all, how Vergeben has known about the second SE character for quite a while and how that predated Sakurai saying the DLC characters were finalized (meaning it's been basically a given for quite a while), how Vergeben has also said the second SE character will be the first DLC fighter, how Sakurai has specifically name-dropped Geno as someone he wanted to add + gotten the ability to use him and his music for SSB4 and in Ultimate, how Nintendo dropped a random SMRPG reference on their Twitter a while back, how an artist at NoA said that Geno was a "hot topic" in the offices sometime back in last September-ish(?), and how we've had rumors that Cloud was the last vet to be greenlit because SE was being stingy about wanting DLC.
With all that considered, is it possible that Geno was actually meant originally to be in the base roster and was maybe begun to be worked on but was later cut and moved to DLC because of Square as a concession to keep Cloud in the base game? Sakurai gets the Vifram figure early on to plan for Geno, has to cut him (leaving a skipped chardata number in the files like the dataminers found), Vergeben hears about another SE character and so that's why he's confident in that early on, and even though Geno gets cut from the base game he's still reassured from his sources that the SE character is happening which is why he doesn't back away until much later when it becomes clear they're definitively DLC instead. Because Geno was already planned, he wouldn't necessarily be starting from scratch to make, making him the easiest of the 5 DLC characters to prepare/finish, hence why he's the first. This would also explain why Nintendo brought SMRPG randomly into the public mind and acknowledged it for the first time in a long while, and also why there was a lot of Geno talk at NoA. And of course, it also explains why PolarPanda is hearing a lot about Geno from his NoA source now too.
Is that too much of a reach, to combine so many different loose plot threads?