Yeah that makes sense. Just to clarify, however, I'm not saying that just because Square has games coming to the Switch doesn't necessarily mean it hints at Smash, because that argument has been memed to death at this point. The point I was trying to make however, is that this supposed July Direct lines up perfectly with a lot of Mario 35 anniversary and Square Enix games coming to the Switch rumors that we have been hearing for quite some time, and if this Direct is going to have a huge focus on both Mario and Square Enix, I feel it makes complete sense to include a Square-owned Mario character, since everything just lines up so perfectly. But I see where you're coming from.
There is really no reason to believe that we're going to get tons of Square-Enix information in this direct though, really the only thing that is "practically confirmed" is that we're definitely going to see Bravely Default 2 in the direct, but everything else is a huge ???
Tomb Raider Collection: Mostly just a rumor and I don't think any insider has actually backed it up. Not to mention that it was "leaked" on 4chan, with a date of August 27th which is not a lot of time to advertise it. It also is presumably a collection of
all Tomb Raider games and I have a hard time believing that the Switch can run the modern ones decently well. On top of that, even if there is a multiplatform collection it seems unlikely that they would choose a Nintendo direct to announce it when it's primarily a Playstation/Xbox series now. More likely that its fake.
KH Rhythm Game: It's really a 50/50, we know it's coming this year so its possible to show it off at the direct but at the same time they may just skip the direct and show it off at something like TGS in September because KH has a habit of showing up there. It was just announced in June though, and it's safe to say that it likely wasn't planned to be shown off in the original June direct, but rather the concert and Square's own presentation. So it's completely possible to for it to not show up. On top of that, I'm pretty sure Disney/Nomura decide when/where KH trailers drop so it's not even a Square Enix decision at that point
TWEWY 2: Probably a 2021+ game so it would be weird to see it getting announced this early, unless Square/Nintendo want to advertise it a lot in the next year or so.
Again, aside from a bunch of unconfirmed rumors and "what-ifs" I don't really see the next direct being Square dominated, unless I'm missing a couple games I think it's just Bravely Default 2.