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Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

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It doesn’t really matter if it’s in-house or not. You’re kind of ignoring what the general directs are positioned to do. It’s to announce games and give us a basic preview of what’s coming over the year.

With the way this virus is affecting certain events lately, it’s definitely in the realm of possibility that Nintendo is in a state of uncertainty for a lot of upcoming releases.
It unfortunately trickles down. Or in this case up.

For example
Paper Mario is announced.

Where does Nintendo manufacture its cases, cartridges, promotional material, etc? Despite them being a Japanese based company, they still utilize resources from China.

All this will factor into changing the release table of some games. As well as their overall market plan for the year.
You're right, a direct is to announce games. Go ahead and tell me all the times a Direct pulled an Oprah and has told us to go check under our seats our store shelves because under the cover of the direct, Nintendo ninjas have put the latest release there. Never. They couldn't keep a surprise like that if they tried, how often do we know the mystery SKUs before the games are even announced? Digital releases are different, but... they're digital.

Nintendo is under no obligation to physically release the games. Sure, a lot of people, myself included, both enjoy and expect a physical copy of the game, but if it were literally a matter of international concern that is stopping the production of the cases, artwork, or game cartridges, that's tough. Hell, imagine being in Nintendo's situation and you realize you could save millions of dollars by blaming supply chain shortage and only releasing games digitally for a few months. Most of these numbers folks probably looked at the coronavirus as far back as January as something that'll blow over in China before it causes a shortage of case or game production in the release window of any games that would have been announced during a February direct, if there was one planned to begin with.

I think if the direct happens next week to coincide with Mar10 Day then they were intentionally holding off on it, and that should end any coronavirus debates... But if the direct happens period it would end coronavirus debates, I suppose.


Followed by a live action sequel to the hit movie classic:

View attachment 264570
Finally. I have unironically awaited the sequel to that movie since I first saw it back in 1997 and saw the cliffhanger ending scene.

I always wondered why Luigi did not have a mustache in that movie.
If you've never watched it, they took the "Mario's younger brother" concept to its extreme. At the time of the movie, Bob Hoskins (Mario) was 50 and very much looked it, while John Leguizamo (Luigi) was 28 and looked as fresh faced as 20. I think it's a little unrealistic to think that their theoretical parents would have waited 20 years to have a second child (though not impossible...) so it might be fair to say that Mario is supposed to be 30 while Luigi is around the 17 to 20 mark, but the lack of mustache probably isn't just to show the age gap - Luigi drives most of the plot and is very much the main character of the movie (a radical idea for the time, part of why this movie is pure genius), and they probably wanted their lead man to look as appealing to the hip kids of the 90s as possible. If the movie were made today with the same level of "irreverence" to the source material, Luigi would probably have a mustache. And a beard.

I just wanna join the legendary Geno thread. Maybe y'all could give me your thoughts on some things.

I think Geno's biggest hurdle is that he doesn't have an obvious sales tie-in. Of course there could be a release of SMRPG for Nintendo's online service, but this doesn't bring the big bucks.

Banjo also had this problem, but Nintendo and MS were really creative and open-minded with that negotiation. I think that's how we ended up with Cuphead and Ori on Switch. So there's obviously some flexibility in what's possible.

I'd love to hear people's thoughts on how Nintendo and Square Enix would try to make the most of Geno if he is included. The most obvious move to me would be for him to play a major role in the next Paper Mario game. But I'm 1. not sure what Intelligent Systems is doing and 2. not sure if Nintendo is serious about the Paper Mario series. Also, the Alpha Dream (RIP) games were more of a successor to SMRPG--they included a Geno cameo in the first game, and had the same composer--so I'm also unsure of whether the Paper Mario team would be interested in making a successor to SMRPG.
Excuse me for being dense, but... what did they sell with Terry? Or Banjo? I think it's a bit of a stretch to say that Banjo has anything to do with Cuphead and Ori - Microsoft does have the distribution rights to Ori but I don't believe that means they own it - there are plenty of games throughout history in which a party that doesn't own the game retains distribution rights for a time before those rights expire and someone else picks it up or the developers find a way to self-publish.

Nintendo has already dedicated two spots in Smash to Square's biggest franchise (Final Fantasy) and the biggest franchise they've ever acquired (Dragon Quest). An entirely new generation has been introduced to Cloud in the years leading up to the long awaited remake of Final Fantasy VII, which will likely never see its way to a Nintendo console. Both of these franchises are legendary, spanning the entirely history of commercially viable video games, but Super Smash Bros. would sell without Cloud and without 4 protagonists from Dragon Quest. I'd even go as far as to say Ultimate would have seen its record setting day 1 sales whether or not Cloud had been in it - Smash is a ****ing legend in and of itself. Nintendo isn't honored to have your character in their game, you're honored to have your character in their game. We don't know the situation, ultimately - has Nintendo gotten anything out of this? Did Cloud's inclusion push thousands of sales of Final Fantasy VII remaster? Dragon Quest 11 S? It may be a bit presumptuous of me, but at this point, Square owes Nintendo the favor of having whoever the hell Nintendo wants be in Smash, because it's very obvious that Square's gotten what they want. Who else do they have to shill?

Smash has been out for a full year, now. I understand where people were coming from, to say that the variety of the first Fighters Pass was to attract new audiences to Smash, even though I don't believe it accomplished that goal, since I just don't see a hardcore Persona fan making an at minimum $365.99 + tax investment to play Joker in a platform fighter/party game hybrid on a console from a company that has never hosted a main Persona game (and this is just an example, as the same can be said for Terry, and Dragon Quest was out on the PS4 for at least a year before it was on the Switch). That extended example speaks to the simple fact that it's very likely that the copies of Smash that have sold are the copies that are gonna sell, barring extremely late adopters. Even as someone who has been denied Geno in this dumb platform fighter party game since Melee, I don't act like the game is somehow worse due to the fact it's lacking him - I don't think there's an appreciable number of people who are going to be sold the game on one character or, honestly, in an 80+ character roster, 5. Even if your favorite character isn't in the game, you find someone you enjoy playing and you play them when you play.

To sum up my point, not every inclusion is a shill. Sometimes, something is done for the fans (Ridley, K. Rool, Belmonts, Banjo), and we're sitting at a point where, with how little we know about the future releases, fan favorites and shills could be the same (Inkling, Isabelle). At this point, the DLC should be sold as something to enhance Smash, not try to attract people to Smash. The people who love this game, the "sMaSh BuBbLe", should be satisfied by these inclusions. I can already smell the bootlickers coming by to tell me that I'm wrong and this is entitlement or whatever, but I'll just let you guys know ahead of time, I don't care what you think about what I think Nintendo should be doing with this round of DLC.
 
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SonicSmasher1

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If you've never watched it, they took the "Mario's younger brother" concept to its extreme. At the time of the movie, Bob Hoskins (Mario) was 50 and very much looked it, while John Leguizamo (Luigi) was 28 and looked as fresh faced as 20. I think it's a little unrealistic to think that their theoretical parents would have waited 20 years to have a second child (though not impossible...) so it might be fair to say that Mario is supposed to be 30 while Luigi is around the 17 to 20 mark, but the lack of mustache probably isn't just to show the age gap - Luigi drives most of the plot and is very much the main character of the movie (a radical idea for the time, part of why this movie is pure genius), and they probably wanted their lead man to look as appealing to the hip kids of the 90s as possible. If the movie were made today with the same level of "irreverence" to the source material, Luigi would probably have a mustache. And a beard.
Yeah, I did not know they wanted to take the younger brother concept to the extreme.

Still, I am not lying when I say that I have watched the movie. So otherwise, I know what you are talking about.
 

SonicSmasher1

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is the direct all you guys have to talk about here or?
You did say you have better things to do. Well, by extension, the rest of us may as well, but why not find something to do until we find something better to talk about? I mean, it doesn't have to be until the Direct actually comes. :p

On a serious note, what would you suggest we talk about?
 

Polarthief

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is the direct all you guys have to talk about here or?
When you're a thread at over 100k posts, what else do you want people to talk about? It's hard to bring in a topic that hasn't already been talked about 30 times, especially when this thread is active daily.

At this point, we're just waiting on the direct to see Smash (and other) news.
 

JudgeHeihachi

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Both Heihachi and Lloyd would bode really well for Geno I think. But it seems like Heihachi would definitely break the internet more as you say. A character who was attempted but deemed impossible plus if my understanding is correct, Heihachi is like a main character who's a villain basically. Forgive me if that's a misunderstanding I'm not at all familiar with Tekken. But if that's the case then that's something we haven't seen before: a villain being the first representative of a series and a third party series no less. That would be another fan rule to take a blow and the more these rules topple the better it is for our star boy. And both Heihachi and Lloyd have impressive fanbases and are requested characters so that too bodes well for Geno. Heihachi is also just really cool and even tho I'm not a fan of other fighting games, he's one fighting game character I'd actually be excited to see. I don't think he'd break the internet to levels like Master Chief or Sora would but probably around the level that Ridley did which is certainly nothing to scoff at. I have to admit that I'm more interested in Kloana and Nightmare because I like mascot characters and characters that have impacted my gaming experience respectively but I know it will probably be Heihachi or Lloyd and I absolutely have mad respect for both of those characters and they'd deserve it.


Essentially yeah I agree that it boils down to sales or I'd also argue relevance. Clearly, as you have already stated, Banjo is proof that these cannot outright prohibit a character from getting included, but they probably are Geno's biggest hurdles in terms of whether Nintendo and/or SE are going to be willing to chose Geno opposed to a character from a different IP. Geno is also in this super weird limbo of basically being a third party one hit wonder in a first party franchise for Nintendo. No other characters really have this kind of weird position as well as insane levels of fan support making him quite the oddity among other speculated characters.

Unfortunately I don't think Nintendo and/or SE will ever make the most out of Geno's character. I think part of the reason Geno's Smash support is so massive is because it's basically his only shot of resurfacing so the stakes for Geno fans are generally just so much higher than fans of other (popular) characters. I don't think we will ever see Geno in Mario games again whether it be RPGs, Mario kart, Mario sports, Mario party, etc. I could maybe see more small cameos but nothing major. It's truly a shame but I really don't believe that either company knows how to handle the awkward legal limbo that Geno exists in and are simply more content to let the character be a dead albeit very popular character. I think the closest thing we would get to relevance is SMRPG coming to NSO.
Nice post! I always like to hear people getting interested into characters from games or genres they usually wouldn't play!
Basically yes, he started as a villain in the first game, the second game had him as a "hero" of sorts because the game was from his perspective but he still was portrayed as bad. While he was always the main villain or smaller antagonist from Tekken 3 to Tekken 6 forward, his true motives were shown in Tekken 7 which puts him more as a tragic hero that had to sacrifice a lot to keep the world save.
But yes, he'd definitely count as a villain rep, as that was how he was seen for most of his appeareances.
 
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Yeah, I did not know they wanted to take the younger brother concept to the extreme.

Still, I am not lying when I say that I have watched the movie. So otherwise, I know what you are talking about.
Yeah there's that whole part where Luigi drops his spaghetti trying to find common ground with Daisy and explains how Mario raised him, so I think it's safe to say that Mario was old enough at the time of their parents death(?) to sustain the two of them and Luigi was young enough to need "raising". Maybe it isn't what they were shooting for, but it's what I surmised.
 

Professor Pumpkaboo

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You did say you have better things to do. Well, by extension, the rest of us may as well, but why not find something to do until we find something better to talk about? I mean, it doesn't have to be until the Direct actually comes. :p

On a serious note, what would you suggest we talk about?
I would say Geno something but most bases on geno topics have been covered:emptysheep: I just hope thr wait for this direct isnt causing yall to go crazy pff
 
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If Waluigi gets announced at Mario day, I can imagine the detractors saying Geno is not happening because there’s already a Mario rep even though we got 2 FE characters as DLC in Smash 4.
 

Firox

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2020 is going to be the year that Nintendo flexs Mario's massive Italian sausage to the world.
Um, I believe the Italian term for Mario's huge, elongated piece of meat is called *ahem* "Salami". And I think 2020 is high time for Geno to whip out that pulsating rod of his to see how he measures up to Mario. No longer should the star warrior hide in obscurity.
 

SonicSmasher1

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I would say Geno something but most bases on geno topics have been covered:emptysheep: I just hope thr wait for this direct isnt causing yall to go crazy pff
Believe me, if we were going crazy, we'd be singing Cabin Fever from Muppet Treasure Island by now.

No need to worry about us, though.

Yeah there's that whole part where Luigi drops his spaghetti trying to find common ground with Daisy and explains how Mario raised him, so I think it's safe to say that Mario was old enough at the time of their parents death(?) to sustain the two of them and Luigi was young enough to need "raising". Maybe it isn't what they were shooting for, but it's what I surmised.
Interesting. Makes me wish they actually went into that more on how they were raised with more detail.
 

Lyncario

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I cannot believe you skipped January and February, 2 vital months of this year that have already passed.

January
Nothing.

February
Nothing.
Tokyo Mirrage Session Encore, who came out in January: 私はあなたへの冗談ですか?
 
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Tokyo Mirrage Session Encore, who came out in January: 私はあなたへの冗談ですか?
We're supposed to accept ports as major releases, three years after the console released?

Are we a joke to them?
 

Firox

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People keep saying "Chill, we'll get a Direct when we get one, be patient.", but here's the thing...

Here's Nintendo's line up of First Party games for the year and beyond:

March
Pokémon Mystery Dungeon DX (Remake of a GBA and DS titles)
Animal Crossing New Horizons (New Entry)

April
Nothing.

May
Nothing.

June
Nothing.

July
Nothing.

August
Nothing.

September
Nothing.

October
Nothing.

November
Nothing.

December
Nothing.

TBA 2020
Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition

???
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2 [Tentative Title]
Metroid Prime 4 (likely 2022)

...and people wonder why there are fans that are begging for a Nintendo Direct. There's not many first party games for 2020 that have been announced. Plus we have the Fighters Pass Volume 2 to consider as well, since Fighter 6 should be almost ready.
We aren't the only ones getting restless over this either. Nintendo's stock has been a downward spiral since the beginning of the year. Shareholders are getting ready to strangle people and there really is no logical reason I can think of that they would just sit on their hands this long. I can only assume (and hope to Arceus) that they have some sort of strategy behind this. Sadly, more often than not, they're just negligent and stupid though.
 

KCCHIEFS27

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is the direct all you guys have to talk about here or?
Comforting to see you continue to add nothing on topic to the Geno thread while begging people in here to bend to whatever stupid **** you want to talk about.

I forgot this was the Animal Crossing general thread
 

Polarthief

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If Waluigi gets announced at Mario day, I can imagine the detractors saying Geno is not happening because there’s already a Mario rep even though we got 2 FE characters as DLC in Smash 4.
2 in Ultimate if you count both DLC and non-DLC too.
 

Sigran101

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Still no damn direct! Maybe next week? Honestly, I'm starting to lose hope that they have anything planned at all. One more shot and then we're most likely waiting until April for the first direct of the year.
 

zferolie

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I really think anything any insider says right now is not right, given how hard nintendo are cracking down. So i dont think any talks of waluigi are true. I do think some things avout other games are true, like paper mario, as that started nintendo going after these leaks.

Still think geno is a shoe in as this passes fan request.

I still am set on an indie with shantae being to top pick.

Crash i think will be this passes surprise never thought it would happen pick and will reference the old crash commercials.

Ryu hyabutsu is 50/50 for me. That insider could have been right, but we just dont know.

I think doomguy is not happening, given how the company has been talking, and the cacomallow leak not being taken down by nintendo once.

Other then that i am not sure. If paper mario game is happening maybe paper mario in smash, as we do have a stage from paper mario in the 3ds game, and it would be a unique mario character. I cant think of many other 1st parties that is very likely. Dante and sora are no way happening. 2b is a possibility with how square is pushing her. Some namco character could happen with kosmos or a tales character most likeely. Rex and pyra could happen too. Last i still think Reimu is likely
 

Sigran101

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Nice post! I always like to hear people getting interested into characters from games or genres they usually wouldn't play!
Basically yes, he started as a villain in the first game, the second game had him as a "hero" of sorts because the game was from his perspective but he still was portrayed as bad. While he was always the main villain or smaller antagonist from Tekken 3 to Tekken 6 forward, his true motives were shown in Tekken 7 which puts him more as a tragic hero that had to sacrifice a lot to keep the world save.
But yes, he'd definitely count as a villain rep, as that was how he was seen for most of his appeareances.
You know this is the Geno thread right? You only ever post about Heihachi. You should probably hang out in that thread instead unless you have something to say about Geno.
 

protoblues

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Essentially yeah I agree that it boils down to sales or I'd also argue relevance. Clearly, as you have already stated, Banjo is proof that these cannot outright prohibit a character from getting included, but they probably are Geno's biggest hurdles in terms of whether Nintendo and/or SE are going to be willing to chose Geno opposed to a character from a different IP. Geno is also in this super weird limbo of basically being a third party one hit wonder in a first party franchise for Nintendo. No other characters really have this kind of weird position as well as insane levels of fan support making him quite the oddity among other speculated characters.

Unfortunately I don't think Nintendo and/or SE will ever make the most out of Geno's character. I think part of the reason Geno's Smash support is so massive is because it's basically his only shot of resurfacing so the stakes for Geno fans are generally just so much higher than fans of other (popular) characters. I don't think we will ever see Geno in Mario games again whether it be RPGs, Mario kart, Mario sports, Mario party, etc. I could maybe see more small cameos but nothing major. It's truly a shame but I really don't believe that either company knows how to handle the awkward legal limbo that Geno exists in and are simply more content to let the character be a dead albeit very popular character. I think the closest thing we would get to relevance is SMRPG coming to NSO.
A good, cynical take. I hate how likely it is to be true! But you make great points. I agree especially that Geno being in Smash wouldn't be likely to lead to Geno being in Mario Kart, Mario Party, etc... both because this would require SE to sell the SMRPG license to Nintendo outright (a bad value proposition for Nintendo tbh) and because I don't think the creators of those other games really care about including Geno (I'm sure you've seen the "new" additions to Nintendo's gacha racing game... only Smash has really cultivated an interesting and creative roster).

I think it's possible Nintendo and Square could agree to a one-off deal for Geno's inclusion in something (though again, Paper Mario is all I can think of). It also might be... necessary? You're right that Geno's situation doesn't compare directly to another character, but I think Banjo is the closest fit (sort of first party, owned by another company now). What Microsoft gets out of that deal is the revival of one of their IPs. The value of Banjo went way up for them after Smash, so that's a lot of value for them. Letting that value go to waste with Geno doesn't leave a lot of pie for hungry companies like SE and Nintendo. Square needs to get something out of a deal for Geno, but I'm not sure what it is. To put it another way... well, skip down to my last paragraph.

Excuse me for being dense, but... what did they sell with Terry? Or Banjo? I think it's a bit of a stretch to say that Banjo has anything to do with Cuphead and Ori - Microsoft does have the distribution rights to Ori but I don't believe that means they own it - there are plenty of games throughout history in which a party that doesn't own the game retains distribution rights for a time before those rights expire and someone else picks it up or the developers find a way to self-publish.

Nintendo has already dedicated two spots in Smash to Square's biggest franchise (Final Fantasy) and the biggest franchise they've ever acquired (Dragon Quest). An entirely new generation has been introduced to Cloud in the years leading up to the long awaited remake of Final Fantasy VII, which will likely never see its way to a Nintendo console. Both of these franchises are legendary, spanning the entirely history of commercially viable video games, but Super Smash Bros. would sell without Cloud and without 4 protagonists from Dragon Quest. I'd even go as far as to say Ultimate would have seen its record setting day 1 sales whether or not Cloud had been in it - Smash is a ****ing legend in and of itself. Nintendo isn't honored to have your character in their game, you're honored to have your character in their game. We don't know the situation, ultimately - has Nintendo gotten anything out of this? Did Cloud's inclusion push thousands of sales of Final Fantasy VII remaster? Dragon Quest 11 S? It may be a bit presumptuous of me, but at this point, Square owes Nintendo the favor of having whoever the hell Nintendo wants be in Smash, because it's very obvious that Square's gotten what they want. Who else do they have to shill?

Smash has been out for a full year, now. I understand where people were coming from, to say that the variety of the first Fighters Pass was to attract new audiences to Smash, even though I don't believe it accomplished that goal, since I just don't see a hardcore Persona fan making an at minimum $365.99 + tax investment to play Joker in a platform fighter/party game hybrid on a console from a company that has never hosted a main Persona game (and this is just an example, as the same can be said for Terry, and Dragon Quest was out on the PS4 for at least a year before it was on the Switch). That extended example speaks to the simple fact that it's very likely that the copies of Smash that have sold are the copies that are gonna sell, barring extremely late adopters. Even as someone who has been denied Geno in this dumb platform fighter party game since Melee, I don't act like the game is somehow worse due to the fact it's lacking him - I don't think there's an appreciable number of people who are going to be sold the game on one character or, honestly, in an 80+ character roster, 5. Even if your favorite character isn't in the game, you find someone you enjoy playing and you play them when you play.

To sum up my point, not every inclusion is a shill. Sometimes, something is done for the fans (Ridley, K. Rool, Belmonts, Banjo), and we're sitting at a point where, with how little we know about the future releases, fan favorites and shills could be the same (Inkling, Isabelle). At this point, the DLC should be sold as something to enhance Smash, not try to attract people to Smash. The people who love this game, the "sMaSh BuBbLe", should be satisfied by these inclusions. I can already smell the bootlickers coming by to tell me that I'm wrong and this is entitlement or whatever, but I'll just let you guys know ahead of time, I don't care what you think about what I think Nintendo should be doing with this round of DLC.
I appreciate the long response.

First, you are right that the value of a third party's IP is boosted from an inclusion in Smash. That is part of their benefit of the bargain. Generally, the value for Nintendo is DLC sales and some kind of deal to get a game on the Switch. This has been consistent.

However, you are wrong on some of your supporting points:

  • Terry's inclusion led to SNK Heroines getting an exclusive physical release on Switch. The game originally wasn't coming to Switch at all. We actually know a lot about this. And read what else they say: We’re starting to do more on Nintendo Switch. SNK Heroines is not the only one. They support us in a good way.

  • We know for sure that Microsoft has control over the platforms Cuphead and Ori release on. Here's an interview from the Cuphead dev about it. He needed MS' permission, and he has no idea how the deal between MS and Nintendo happened... hmmm.

Every 3rd party DLC release has a pretty clear business model that exceeds the scope of pure sales. The value of the partner's IP is enriched, Nintendo scores some new games, and the relationship between Nintendo and the partner improves. Geno presents a unique challenge to this model, because it's not clear who can benefit from the IP's enrichment or what new games might come to Switch as a result. I think it's worth speculating on how Nintendo and SE might respond to this.
 

Firox

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You know this is the Geno thread right? You only ever post about Heihachi. You should probably hang out in that thread instead unless you have something to say about Geno.
Or at least if Heihachi had any bearing on Geno. Like, if he were to propose a logical theory as to why Heihachi getting in would favor Geno then that would make sense, but this isn't the place for campaigning random characters.
 

TheShiningAbsol

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Or at least if Heihachi had any bearing on Geno. Like, if he were to propose a logical theory as to why Heihachi getting in would favor Geno then that would make sense, but this isn't the place for campaigning random characters.
Geno appears in base game as a Spirit.
Heihachi appears in base game in PAC-MAN’s taunt.

Therefore, one getting in would ostensibly increase the odds of the other.

There, EZ theory. :4pacman:
 

Firox

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Geno appears in base game as a Spirit.
Heihachi appears in base game in PAC-MAN’s taunt.

Therefore, one getting in would ostensibly increase the odds of the other.

There, EZ theory. :4pacman:
lol Well, that's SOMETHING, but would it though? I mean, it's kind of an apples to oranges comparison, and you know that the "sPiRiTs DeCoNfIrM" detractors wouldn't budge an inch if Heihachi got in. They'd invent another fan rule like "Taunts, Final Smashes and Victory Screens were obviously never a deconfirmation cuz Chrobin!"

...also, I don't know why, but your use of the word ostensibly reminded me of the SNL skit where Will Ferrell is playing the Architect from the matrix....

"ERGO! VIS-A-VIS! CONCORDENTLY!"
 

zferolie

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I appreciate fatman theories and they may be right, but i was thinking anything any insider is sayimg is most likely wrong in terms of smash right now. I am basing this on how secretive they are being on smash. Snk was only leaked due to ninte do accident. Byleth was not known to anyone but 1 guy on resetera and that may have been at the last minute. No one knew joker.

Honestly, the less a character is talked about by insiders, the higher the chances i feel. Thats normally the wrong way to look at it, but i think smash is being unique.
 

waterhasataste

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How much longer do all of y'all plan to stay in the Smash speculation scene or playing new titles in the Smash franchise in general? I will probably stick around until Smash 6 or Smash 7 it really depends what route they will go with Smash 6. I'm going to try to hold on until Goemon get's in and I'm 100% calling it quits come the end of Smash 7 speculation if Smash 6 doesn't disappoint me. For sure Smash 7 will be my last Smash.
In terms of speculation, I'll be done once we get Geno, or if they finish the 2nd Fighters Pass without him. This is my first time joining the Smash speculation cycle and it's been fun but also a little exhausting and frustrating. Personally I can't see myself doing it again, but who knows? In terms of the games themselves, I'll definitely still give future Smash games a try. But I'm not sure how they'll manage to top Ultimate roster wise for me
Another realization I've come to is that my theory isn't super farfetched because we've already seen it in the Fighter's Pass. Terry's pack was pretty much a celebration of SNK. What if Season 2 is basically this? For example... Hear me out... Geno wouldn't just be SMRPG stuff, it would be Square Enix stuff. Terry got 50 ****in' songs because it covered titles across SNK history. What if they did this with Geno but Square Enix? Yeah, Square's two pieces of music per game rule sucks but starting throwing in Final Fantasy, Mana, Chrono, Nier, etc games and things get impressive really ****in' fast.

Let's extend this to a spirits. Terry's spirit board was unique in that it was SNK. What if, say, Geno's spirit board is "a Square" board. Possibly getting into tinfoil hat territory (my favorite) but this would provide an explanation as to why Ring Fit and Luigi's Mansion 3 haven't gotten spirits yet. Ladies and gentlemen... We may have been thinking too small all along... Again, circling back, these upcoming packs may celebrate entire companies and so their spirits, Mii costumes, and even music may reflect this too.
More Final Fantasy VII content, plz Square I beg

So outside of all the names everyone is talking about like Geno, Dante, Lloyd, Master Chief, Waluigi, ect, what out of left field character are you guys expecting that might not be them? I still throw the idea Shantae still could be possible due to Seven Sirens coming up and Layton because Level 5 doesn't have a rep yet.
Some stuff that's crossed my mind is another Konami rep like Bill Rizer. Additionally, I think an Arc Systems rep could happen. Bethesda too. There's some doubt now that Doom Guy is actually coming, but even then, I personally can still see it happening. Maybe Arle? These are the main ones I've been thinking about outside of the heavily rumored ones
 
D

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I appreciate fatman theories and they may be right, but i was thinking anything any insider is sayimg is most likely wrong in terms of smash right now. I am basing this on how secretive they are being on smash. Snk was only leaked due to ninte do accident. Byleth was not known to anyone but 1 guy on resetera and that may have been at the last minute. No one knew joker.

Honestly, the less a character is talked about by insiders, the higher the chances i feel. Thats normally the wrong way to look at it, but i think smash is being unique.
You maybe right probably Waluigi but if there is a character from a 3rd party that is absolutely horrendous of keeping secrets and always leak things like Activision, that is something to heavily consider when it comes to Crash. I feel that Sephiroth is heard being pushed for Geno like the Seven Squares information. I also heard Capcom is horrible with secrets so I guess we’ll see.
 
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Dukefire

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Characters that aren't brought up very often may have a better chance and less salt if they can't join smash. Plus those that have a history regarding if with nintendo early or recent, can get in if Sakurai, Nintendo and the selected partner does cooperate
 

mynameisBlade

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Sigran101

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Btw, my official prediction for FPv2

6. Sora- Disney rep- Start off with a bang, highly requested, major 3rd party, Crash is suspicious to me.

7. Geno- Square Rep- Do I really need to explain?

8. Lloyd- Bamco Rep- Mii costume missing, big request since brawl, Bamco costumes need to come back somehow

9. King Boo- Nintendo Rep- LM3 Spirits are missing, the game was huge for Nintendo

10. Phoenix Wright- Capcom Rep- Capcom seems likely to get a character, Dante seems like leakbait to me.

11. Master Chief- Microsoft Rep- End on a strong note for once, apparently there have been official talks according to leakers, would be a really weird character to use as leakbait.
 

MattX20

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Fighter’s Pass 2 card has a physical release date of March 23, 2020.

RT:スマブラDLCファイターパスVol.2の発売日は「3月23日」との事です。https://t.co/7Dwrz3Famo
— スマブラsp DLC考察垢(無責任男) (@musekinin_game) March 3, 2020

https://www.smashbros.com/ja_JP/products/dlc.html#section01
It could be like before when Joker was revealed. We may def be in for a surprise soon.
Well, looks like a general direct is in the cards then. We may not have to wait too much longer for some information on #6
 

Firox

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11. Master Chief- Microsoft Rep- End on a strong note for once, apparently there have been official talks according to leakers, would be a really weird character to use as leakbait.
Watch that fake trailer leak for MC end up being real....
 

zferolie

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Messages
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You maybe right probably Waluigi but if there is a character from a 3rd party that is absolutely horrendous of keeping secrets and always leak things like Activision, that is something to heavily consider when it comes to Crash. I feel that Sephiroth is heard being pushed for Geno like the Seven Squares information. I also heard Capcom is horrible with secrets so I guess we’ll see.
Yeah i suppose it depends on the company. 1st party characters wont be leaked. Activision i heard is trying to crack down harder, so we need to wait and see.

Honestly, it depends on how many people in these other companies know about it. Lets take shantae as an example. I can only see matt, his wife, and james knowimg about her being in, and maybe a the main shantae composer who i am blanking on. Maybe her va. Not many others should be in the know at wayforward, as they arent working on smash. I see this as the case for other companies.

Fighter’s Pass 2 card has a physical release date of March 23, 2020.

RT:スマブラDLCファイターパスVol.2の発売日は「3月23日」との事です。https://t.co/7Dwrz3Famo
— スマブラsp DLC考察垢(無責任男) (@musekinin_game) March 3, 2020

https://www.smashbros.com/ja_JP/products/dlc.html#section01
It could be like before when Joker was revealed. We may def be in for a surprise soon.
I feel we should be told this month. If its in a direct, or otherwise, we shall see.

If we dont get any direct before that rumored sabi indie direct... then i will bet dollars to donuts we are getting an indie first in smash
 

Lord Woomy

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Fighter’s Pass 2 card has a physical release date of March 23, 2020.

RT:スマブラDLCファイターパスVol.2の発売日は「3月23日」との事です。https://t.co/7Dwrz3Famo
— スマブラsp DLC考察垢(無責任男) (@musekinin_game) March 3, 2020

https://www.smashbros.com/ja_JP/products/dlc.html#section01
It could be like before when Joker was revealed. We may def be in for a surprise soon.
So hyped for "Mr Sakurai Presents: Answering 3 Vague Yes or No Questions About Fighter 6"
 
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I appreciate the long response.

First, you are right that the value of a third party's IP is boosted from an inclusion in Smash. That is part of their benefit of the bargain. Generally, the value for Nintendo is DLC sales and some kind of deal to get a game on the Switch. This has been consistent.

However, you are wrong on some of your supporting points:

  • Terry's inclusion led to SNK Heroines getting an exclusive physical release on Switch. The game originally wasn't coming to Switch at all. We actually know a lot about this. And read what else they say: We’re starting to do more on Nintendo Switch. SNK Heroines is not the only one. They support us in a good way.

  • We know for sure that Microsoft has control over the platforms Cuphead and Ori release on. Here's an interview from the Cuphead dev about it. He needed MS' permission, and he has no idea how the deal between MS and Nintendo happened... hmmm.

Every 3rd party DLC release has a pretty clear business model that exceeds the scope of pure sales. The value of the partner's IP is enriched, Nintendo scores some new games, and the relationship between Nintendo and the partner improves. Geno presents a unique challenge to this model, because it's not clear who can benefit from the IP's enrichment or what new games might come to Switch as a result. I think it's worth speculating on how Nintendo and SE might respond to this.
To get a game on the Switch has only worked out in the case of Hero, and I don't know if it's something we can prove, claiming that 11 S was the product of the deal to get Hero into Smash. Joker's only presence on a Nintendo console is Persona Q2, which, given how Persona Q was a 3DS exclusive release as well, it's pretty safe to say it was going to happen, Joker in Smash or not. Without going too far on a tangent, I'll just say that Hero was the only "obvious" third party shill, and even then, there's something that feels organic about it, like 11 S was just a coincidence with Dragon Quest's Smash inclusion.

I think that what you've provided for SNK Heroines and the Cuphead release on the Switch are very informative and it's great to have interviews that support a theory/opinion, but both feel like a bit of a stretch, especially with Banjo to Cuphead or Ori. My understanding of the Cuphead interview is that the developer doesn't know who went to who for the Switch release of Cuphead, and that their studio would need Microsoft's permission to release on a platform of their choosing, because, like Ori, Microsoft has the distribution rights of the game. Also, if the Cuphead Mii costume had to be acquired from Microsoft, why wasn't it shown with Banjo? God knows they could have made the Byleth reveal something to get stoked for if they had saved Sans for that.

If Nintendo wanted a game of out Banjo, why would they not push for Rare Replay, which is 50% comprised of games that were originally developed for Nintendo's consoles, and, you know... actually has Banjo's game in it. Instead, they had to tell us to go play Banjo Kazooie on the damn Xbox. Nintendo didn't win in this situation, and I don't think getting a 4 year old metroidvania ported to your current generation console or the hottest "Nintendo-hard" run-n-gun ported to your console nearly two years after its launch is a winning trade, especially compared to what is essentially the complete edition of Dragon Quest XI, with the orchestral tracks and a whole new retro mode, and the exclusive distribution of the physical version of SNK Heroines, assuming that the Terry deal actually accomplished that... Which, likewise, it's odd to me that Nintendo wouldn't shoot for some kind of special edition of King of Fighters, rather than SNK Heroines when the most recognizable face in that game had to be excluded from Smash.

Something else worth considering is the fact that Simon and Richter are third party inclusions that accomplished seemingly nothing, and the return of Snake had to be a pain given how Konami would probably prefer to move on from Metal Gear completely after the Kojima nonsense and their butchering of the franchise in the form of Survive. It was speculated that the Castlevania collection that included Symphony of the Night was going to come to Switch, but here we are, with it still on the PS4.

SpiritOfRuin SpiritOfRuin is right, ultimately, that Geno is in the weirdest spot of all requested Smash characters, what with being a third party property in a first party game, made even more of a frustrating scenario because Nintendo should have had the foresight to secure any character used in their property as their property. I've mentioned before that it's outlandish to believe that Boshi, the equivalent of someone's Sonic fancharacter in Yoshi form, is property of Square ****ing Enix - that kind of thing wouldn't fly if the game had been developed in the west and while I appreciate the more relaxed stance of Japan's copyright laws, it sure has bitten us in the ass as a fanbase, this time. I've said before that SMRPG getting released on NSO wouldn't benefit Square at all, as they wouldn't be making any money from it, so really Geno's best chance for some kind of promotion would be to have another Square/Nintendo team up Mario RPG, which isn't impossible, but we sure haven't had even the slightest hint to it potentially happening... But given that Square apparently has some Grade-A leak prevention and what seems to be a recent hard crackdown by Nintendo, who knows. That, or maybe some kind of compilation title of Square's SNES hits coming to the Switch, including Super Mario RPG.

However, I think there's something to be said to give you the entire benefit of the doubt: Terry was part of a deal to get exclusive rights to SNK Heroine's physical distribution. Banjo was part of a deal to get Cuphead and Ori on Switch (and possibly the Mii costume and maybe even an uncoming Mii costume for Ori)... these releases were so disconnected from the character's inclusion in Smash (especially SNK Heroines which released a full year before Terry was even revealed) that it's only obvious that they might have been part of the deal in hindsight. Background dealings, if you will... It could be safe to say that whatever Nintendo/Square jointly gain from Geno's inclusion to Smash is a business deal that has already happened without us realizing it was related.

Which, coincidentally, it's been just a little over a year that Final Fantasy 7 and 9 were announced to be coming to the Switch.
 

Fatmanonice

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I appreciate fatman theories and they may be right, but i was thinking anything any insider is sayimg is most likely wrong in terms of smash right now. I am basing this on how secretive they are being on smash. Snk was only leaked due to ninte do accident. Byleth was not known to anyone but 1 guy on resetera and that may have been at the last minute. No one knew joker.

Honestly, the less a character is talked about by insiders, the higher the chances i feel. Thats normally the wrong way to look at it, but i think smash is being unique.
The thing is though that most of the characters have leaked because third parties were involved or events not run by Nintendo were involved. 10 out of the 17 newcomers so far have leaked. The ones that didn't leak? Three echoes (two were first party), three first party characters (K. Rool, Plant, and Byleth), and Joker who supposedly like 5 people outside of the Smash development team actually knew about. So, with this assessment, 5 of the 7 third party characters have leaked with one being an echo and 5 of the 10 Nintendo owned characters leaked. Count only the totally unique characters and the numbers become 4 out of 5 for third party and 4 out of 7 for Nintendo owned. Based on this model, third party characters are pretty likely to leak while Nintendo owned character are less so.
 

zferolie

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The thing is though that most of the characters have leaked because third parties were involved or events not run by Nintendo were involved. 10 out of the 17 newcomers so far have leaked. The ones that didn't leak? Three echoes (two were first party), three first party characters (K. Rool, Plant, and Byleth), and Joker who supposedly like 5 people outside of the Smash development team actually knew about. So, with this assessment, 5 of the 7 third party characters have leaked with one being an echo and 5 of the 10 Nintendo owned characters leaked. Count only the totally unique characters and the numbers become 4 out of 5 for third party and 4 out of 7 for Nintendo owned. Based on this model, third party characters are pretty likely to leak while Nintendo owned character are less so.
I would argue Terry didnt get leaked till nintendo accidentally put that snk trademark. If i am not mistaken, no one was reporting Terry or anyome snk till that happened, which probably got insiders talking to the leakers.

But yeah, a bunch of characters have leaked, but i dont think that will be the case anymore, or at least its not very likely. I really.dont think any insider of talks of Waluigi are true, or if anything leakbait or inside jokes towards leakers.

As for other third parties being talked, that's more up in the air. Geno happening or being talked about is likely. I am still on the indie bandwagon, and if we dont get any directs before sabis rumored indie direct(which i think is sabis probably last true nintendo leak), thats where we will get a indie character. Honestly i think an indie character not beimg leaked is likely with how small these indie studios are. Cuphead and sans were not leaked, other then 10 minutes before shown, which was verge probably being told during the direct what was in it.
 

Lord Woomy

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Joker who supposedly like 5 people outside of the Smash development team actually knew about.
I'd like to add on to this that it's obvious Joker never leaked because he wasn't in a playable state when he was revealed. When they're that early, unless there's a serious mistake, it's very difficult for any character to be known by someone who would leak them iirc.
 
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