Plenty of people *cough*Wynn*cough* like to think that Sakurai isn't going to include/hates/doesn't care for Geno because he isn't in Smash as a fighter yet. Some of their most prevalent claims to the contrary are as follows:
- "Sakurai included X character (usually Incineroar, Piranha Plant or Byleth), which means he doesn't care about/is willing to do things that go counter to what the fans want, so he's not going to include Geno."
- "Sakurai included Geno as a costume before, what makes you think he won't do it again? So what if his costume is missing? SquareEnix clearly wanted to advertise Dragon Quest, and they didn't want the backlash of Geno's costume coming back to affect the game's sales! He's probably just going to upgrade it and release it as a deluxe costume a la Sans and Cuphead."
- "There are so many other characters from SquareEnix they could choose, why would Geno get in over them?"
These arguments make really broad claims that can't be proven beyond how they particularly feel about each of these subjects.
With regards to Point 1: Sakurai includes characters for all sorts of reasons, as I've mentioned above. Just because a character isn't in yet doesn't mean they'll never make it in. This is especially embarassing for people saying this about a character they want because it basically guarentees that that character will never get into Smash since, if a character is thought to be unlikely by Smash fans, nobody will throw their support behind them. If nobody throws their suppord behind them, they'll never form the loud, long-standing fanbase that characters like Ridley did. If there's no fanbase for a character, that character will never get noticed by Sakurai and company. And if the character isn't noticed by Sakurai and company, they'll never think to put that character in. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
With regards to Point 2: The Geno costume missing is kind of a big deal. Geno is one of the most consistently requested characters in the history of Smash, a true NEVER EVER along the lines of King K. Rool or Banjo & Kazooie. To not have his costume return alongside the one character who it would be most fitting to bring it back with is nothing short of suspicious. There's no good reason as to why it shouldn't have returned alongside Hero if it was still being included.
SquareEnix wanting to promote Dragon Quest alone and not wanting to associate that with the potential backlash of Geno's costume coming back is a woefully insufficient explaination because:
A) Hero being in Smash wasn't all they were doing to advertise the new game, so it wouldn't have been the end-all-be-all when it comes to Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Edition.
B) Square was already cool with having the Geno costume brought in alongside Cloud, so if they cared one iota about any potential backlash they wouldn't have done that.
And C) I refuse to believe that the backlash of the Geno costume coming back alongside Hero would've been anywhere near enough to impact the sales of one of the biggest RPG series in the world, from one of the biggest publishers in the business. If that's the case, then how the **** is it that Smash fans are so powerful that we can bring down the sales for something like Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Edition, but we can't channel our amazing powers into getting characters like Geno in Smash to begin with? What sense does that make?
And about Geno being upgraded, I have little idea as to why people think that's even remotely likely. If they have the costume already made, then there's little reason for them to upgrade it, since doing so would be time and effort better spent on making an entirely new costume or two. And again, what's so special about Geno that his costume would get upgraded as opposed to literally any other costume? Why not give the Mega Man X and .EXE costumes an upgrade to cover their face? Why not make Goemon's face a full mask and bring along a music track from his game? And what sense does it make that Sakurai knows that Geno is highly requested, particularly by
boomers older fans, he's already included the similarly highly requested Ridley, King K. Rool and Banjo & Kazooie to the game, but he still decides that bringing back the costume or upgrading that costume would be enough? I don't buy it. I don't believe that Sakurai is that tone-deaf regarding what fans want.
And finally, to cap this point off, what do Sans and Cuphead have in common aside from them both being full-body costumes with a music track? That's right, they're both very popular indie characters. It makes total sense to include them as specialized costumes rather than full fighters because, while they're popular character from popular games, they're not as big a deal as someone like a Dante or a Crash Bandicoot, or even a Geno. Now I'm not saying that indie characters could never make it in as anything more than a costume or a spirit (I personally think Shantae has a decent shot), but if Shovel Knight, one of the most prolific indie characers around, can't make it in as anything more than an Assist Trophy, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that characters like Madeline or Miriam might not have much of a chance just yet.
And this doesn't just extend to Geno, but Lloyd and Heihachi as well. Funnily enough, I don't see many people presenting the idea that those two will be upgraded to "Deluxe Mii Costume" status. Funny, that.
With regards to Point 3: Everybody always brings up the other characters that SquareEnix owns that could make it in instead of Geno: 2B, Lara Croft, Crono, another Final Fantasy character, Gex (lol), and Sora even though he's actually owned by Disney. While these characters are certainly more popular than Geno in terms of franchise significance and gaming history as a whole, none of them can hold a candle to the amount of demand that Geno has among Smash fans. And since fan demand seems to be what Sakurai is aiming for with Ultimate, if most of the newcomers are any indication, then it seems much more likely that out of all of these characters, Geno has the best chance to get in.
2B and her homegame Nier Automata may be more popular overall, but fans moreso want Geno.
Lara Croft may be more significant to gaming history, but fans moreso want Geno.
Chrono Trigger may be another popular fondly remembered SNES game a la Super Mario RPG, but fans moreso want Geno.
A character like Sephiroth may be a bigger deal than Geno is, but Final Fantasy is a trademark cluster**** that could barely get Cloud, 2 songs, and a single stage, so what the **** kind of chance does he have... also fans moreso want Geno.
Gex is most likely never getting in Smash, and Sora is not only a similar case of being a copyright nightmare, but is also probably not even a SquareEnix character to begin with so he wouldn't even be considered competition.
Out of all of those characters, Geno has the best shot of getting: He's highly requested by fans to an insane degree, he was considered for Smash twice before with Sakurai even stating he thought Geno would be a perfect fit for the series, and he's made a couple appearances in Smash already so clearly there's no trouble regarding getting the rights to use him.