Hey Geno fans, I admit that I'm not a big fan of Geno in Smash as most of you but I respect your wishes because of the great passion and patience that most of you have. So the question is; Does Geno have a chance for being a new characters in Fighter Pass #2? My answer is no, but I think he still has a big chance to get in Smash Ultimate.
How ? Well, there were 2 things that draw me attention; one is end date when all fighter pass characters will be available (I know its a placeholder but the idea is to release all of them by end of 2021, so they think that development of 6 characters will take around 2 years) and the other one is that fighter pass 2 has 6 characters instead of 5, why Sakurai? why being so generous.
So I think about this theory (I don't know if this was discussed before); we know through WoL datamine that there are 16 dummy slots for DLC characters and thats the maximun limits of DLC fighters that they can add (if the add more, the game crashes). So far, 6 slofts were filled with Piranha Plant and FP1, in addition, another 6 slots will be filled with FP2 fighters. So they can add 4 more fighters if Sakurai's team want.
Ok, some will think "hey that can make a third FP to filled with the remaining 4 slots" but if thats what they will do, why does this FP has 6 characters instead of 5? In the hypothetical scenario that they are also planning a third FP, this second one would have 5 fighters so the third one can also have the same amount.
So, I think that Smash team will release another 4 DLC characters in addition to FP2, these 4 characters will be sold separately like PP and will came with no stages or spirits board, just one or two songs (one new remix and other original track) and thats all. These characters will be from existings IPs that already has playable fighters in Smash, like some Spirit promotions. Here Geno makes sense as he is from the Mario universe and doesn't need a new stage or spirits. (But yes to a Forest Maze remix). Other possible characters from this criteria are Rex, Bandana Waddle Dee, Dixie Kong, Gen 8 Pokemon, another Fire Emblem character (jk). These 4 hypothetical characters will release between FP2 fighters. So I expect a release schedule like this:
2020
July: FP6
September: FP7
November: Extra 1 (Geno)
2021
January: FP8
March: Extra 2 (Rex with Pyra/Mithra)
May: FP9
July: Extra 3 (Dixie Kong)
September: FP10
November: FP11
2022
January: Extra 4 (New original character)