Ok so, I got home with enough time between dedicated periods of time that I can post my theory on how we could easily get the 5th fighter this year.
Now, three things I need to state about this theory:
- This is going off of my previous theory that, at the time I was one of the VERY few who believed that Sakurai and his team were so far ahead of schedule for a reason, and that THAT reason was that they had more characters coming after the pass. If I need to find it to quote it I will, but I'm positive most of the really active members remember me saying that there was no way they would be this far ahead of schedule just because. Many doubted me...and then guess what happened?
- This theory banks on the fact that any character who's initial reveal trailer had a gameplay reveal were basically finished at the point of the reveal and those who's initial reveal did not include gameplay were earlier in their development at the time of the reveal. I feel like we can mostly agree on this on a basic level.
- I believe it was
PokéfreakofBACON
that mentioned something about 'characters take a year to develop' and that Sakurai confirmed this himself. I need you to throw this statement out of you mind, and here is why: this is no longer base-game development. If each character in the Fighter's Pass had a year of development time behind them, they would either have been in the game a lot sooner or Sakurai is a liar about working on DLC before the game launched/went gold. The MOST you can argue at present time is that when Sakurai mentioned the 'finalization of DLC' is that he was referring to the last Fighter's Pass character and that Joker was already negotiated for and had work started on him as soon as the game went gold. In other words, it's basically a fact that each of these characters have had less then a year of development time, though we don't know the specifics. All I'm trying to do is find patterns in development and release.
With that all said, let us start with It Who Must Not Be Spoken Of...
So Piranha Plant was revealed at the end of the Nov 1 Direct of 2018 with a full gameplay initial reveal but it was mentioned the character 'wasn't quite ready' and was supposed to be for launch but they 'ran out of time'. Now, I'm not saying Sakurai was lying: I'm sure there were still some minor adjustments to be made, but let's be real here: Piranha Plant was essentially done. Thus, I believe most of that time between Nov 1st and Jan 29th was dedicated to crafting
.
Now Joker's reveal was completely cinematic, which leads me to believe that despite having basically all of Nov to work on him, he was not complete enough to show off gameplay at the VGAs and frankly, the reveal we got was more in-character. Also the game was purchasable the next day, so the game was already shipped and stocked, so there were no more work being done on the base game outside little bits for a Day 1 Patch for things they may have missed. This means that Joker essentially was the main focus from when the game went gold (likely before Nov 14th, I believe that was the date Sakurai gave us in an interview, but for the sake of ease and clarity let's say it was exactly Nov 14th) until April 17th...except not really.
See, my theory is that Joker was basically done when we got teased his idle stance on the 13th. Sure, he probably had to have final adjustments, but just like PP before him I believe showing off any in-game content is a sign of being very VERY far in development. Now, if we look at when the game went gold and when Joker's idle stance and entrance animation were teased...that's almost three months of development time. That is completely possible with Japanese work ethic and no base game to be working on outside of patches and extra content. Now, if Joker were to be done in Feb (or even Jan possibly, but let's stick with Feb)...who came next?
Well, both
and
got revealed at the E3 Nintendo Direct on June 6th...and they were both revealed with gameplay at their initial reveals, and as mentioned before, this means that by the time of this reveal they would be mostly complete with only minor adjustments needed. That is TWO that were mostly completed between Feb 13th and June 8th. Hero was released on July 30th and B&K were released on Sept 4th, very short time frames from one another, and please keep in mind that Sakurai's breakdowns were recorded essentially back-to-back...meaning BOTH characters were THAT polished in the SAME time frame. This would hint that Joker releasing so late had more to do with having more time to work on the other DLC characters and content and his reveal being more extravagant with all the other voice actors being involved for his gameplay reveal. Now if we look roughly between Feb 13th and June 11th...that's JUST short of four months, and of course the characters were likely in this state sooner than that...we are starting to have a pattern of roughly 3 months of development time, which is crazy considering we've already gotten three of the five characters.
Now, for Terry. He was revealed on Sept 4th with B&K's shadow drop announcement and he was announced for a release in Nov. Using the exact dates as I have been, from the double reveal on June 11th to Sept 4th...that's JUST
short of 3 three months...and Terry didn't have a gamplay initial reveal, meaning that Terry was a combination of not quite finished enough to reveal but also the desire to included a dope trailer that honors SNK's legacy...but then Sakurai teased us with an idle stance, some attacks and a stage. Now, consider this: that sneak reveal was included in the gameplay breakdown of B&K that was filmed BACK-TO-BACK with Hero's gameplay breakdown. Now, why would Sakurai record himself saying something like that just to have it there for the footage to be edited it later when it's available. To me, that doesn't seem like something Sakurai would do. It seems too shady...however, it also matches the timeline.
Think about it: If Hero and B&K were basically finished but not yet released during those recordings, and Terry is slated for Nov, wouldn't it make sense that Terry isn't quite done yet but also has enough to show off something small like that? This lines up with these roughly three months of development cycles. But, where does that put us with Fighter #5?
Welp, from where I see it, Fighter #5 could TOTALLY release late Dec. I don't think it will happen, but it's very much possible, and here's why. Terry was THAT far along in a Late May/Early July timeframe (as we really do not know, as far as my knowledge goes, what month Hero and B&K's breakdown's with Sakurai were filmed.. This means that, much like EVERY OTHER CHARACTER thus far, they are completely finished WELL before they are released. PP was done likely around the time he was revealed if not very shortly after but dropped in Jan, Joker was very likely done in Feb or shortly after but released in April, Hero and B&K were very likely done in late May if not shortly after...so it's likely that Terry is already complete and has already been complete for weeks now. This would mean that they are likely finishing up Fighter #5 right this very moment, which is why I believe Fighter #5 will be revealed with Terry's gameplay breakdown... but it's also the reason why I don't think Fighter #5 will release in Dec.
See, the time in between releases has been fairly consistent as well, in the sense that the time between Terry dropping in Nov and another character dropping in Dec feels too short of time vs some time in Jan. It's possible, as Sakurai can do whatever he wants, I'm just building some sort of pattern.
There was probably more I wanted to say, but I'm tired now and have little time before bed. Enjoy!
