Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[3DSNinja]

Yep. Culex would be perfect. Also I want that template so I can make both predictions and wants.

 

[OffBi]

Excuse me, what program did you use to make this?

gimp

 

[Ovaltine]

Honestly, my predictions are kinda like this:

1st party additions: Not expecting many, if any at all. Most I'm about to expect is a gen 8 Pokemon (final starter evo? Sirfetch'd?) and Byleth. If echoes end up happening in any way, I'd expect Octoling, maybe even Ring Fit Trainer/Adventurer. If we get assist promotions, I'd only be willing to expect Waluigi. I'd love to see Isaac make it, but I think he's still dead in the water.

3rd party additions: Geno's going to either be a fighter or an upgraded Mii costume. That's my prediction there. While I hope for the former, I'm gonna keep my expectations tempered and anticipate the latter. Otherwise, other characters I wouldn't be surprised to see are Ryu Hayabusa, Crash Bandicoot, the Doom Marine, and an RE rep. I'd be kind of surprised and kind of not to see Sora, as well. I wouldn't be surprised because he's such a big deal and has a damn good fighting chance, but even with that expectation, it'd still blow me away.

In fact, in terms of one of these, there is one I have unwavering certainty for: Crash. I don't know, but I just have this gut feeling that he's going to make it. He isn't one of my most wanted and I wouldn't be crushed (or crashed? heh) if he didn't make it, but I'd still be hype to see him. I'd put my money on Crash making the cut. Just got this feeling, you know?

As for who I want, all I want is Geno. He's all I'm missing. Anyone else would just be a bonus lol.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Honestly, my predictions are kinda like this:

1st party additions: Not expecting many, if any at all. Most I'm about to expect is a gen 8 Pokemon (final starter evo? Sirfetch'd?) and Byleth. If echoes end up happening in any way, I'd expect Octoling, maybe even Ring Fit Trainer/Adventurer. If we get assist promotions, I'd only be willing to expect Waluigi. I'd love to see Isaac make it, but I think he's still dead in the water.

3rd party additions: Geno's going to either be a fighter or an upgraded Mii costume. That's my prediction there. While I hope for the former, I'm gonna keep my expectations tempered and anticipate the latter. Otherwise, other characters I wouldn't be surprised to see are Ryu Hayabusa, Crash Bandicoot, the Doom Marine, and an RE rep. I'd be kind of surprised and kind of not to see Sora, as well. I wouldn't be surprised because he's such a big deal and has a damn good fighting chance, but even with that expectation, it'd still blow me away.

In fact, in terms of one of these, there is one I have unwavering certainty for: Crash. I don't know, but I just have this gut feeling that he's going to make it. He isn't one of my most wanted and I wouldn't be crushed (or crashed? heh) if he didn't make it, but I'd still be hype to see him. I'd put my money on Crash making the cut. Just got this feeling, you know?

As for who I want, all I want is Geno. He's all I'm missing. Anyone else would just be a bonus lol.

I kind of feel like expecting a Gen 8 Pokemon and Byleth/Fire Emblem is the new Springman and Rex & Pyra of this portion of the DLC cycle. Everybody was convinced that those two would be promotional reps for recent Switch games in Nintendo's first batch of DLC before they had formally announced it and then the November Direct dropped and shattered that expectation. Now you have it with another two types of characters that are much less supported by the fans and just go deeper into already heavily represented series. I guess it just sounds a bit overly pessimistic/cynical about Nintendo's approach? They had the opportunity to do this once before and they still decided against it. I could easily see them choosing not to go for these characters because there's not as much demand and their goals have shifted with Smash in a lot of ways it seems. Pokemon maybe less so than Fire Emblem given it's kind of hard to ignore... but Fire Emblem I think is done for Ultimate outside of maybe promotional Spirits.

 

[Ovaltine]

I kind of feel like expecting a Gen 8 Pokemon and Byleth/Fire Emblem is the new Springman and Rex & Pyra of this portion of the DLC cycle. Everybody was convinced that those two would be promotional reps for recent Switch games in Nintendo's first batch of DLC before they had formally announced it and then the November Direct dropped and shattered that expectation. Now you have it with another two types of characters that are much less supported by the fans and just go deeper into already heavily represented series. I guess it just sounds a bit overly pessimistic/cynical about Nintendo's approach? They had the opportunity to do this once before and they still decided against it. I could easily see them choosing not to go for these characters because there's not as much demand and their goals have shifted with Smash in a lot of ways it seems. Pokemon maybe less so than Fire Emblem given it's kind of hard to ignore... but Fire Emblem I think is done for Ultimate outside of maybe promotional Spirits.

That's a good point, but especially considering how successful FE3H was, I wouldn't really rule it out. I personally don't mind either way if Byleth or a gen 8 Pokemon get in, anyway, so it's not too pessimistic on my part. Byleth's whip sword is pretty darn neat, and there are some other, more spoilery reasons why they have some potential. Also, if Sirfetch'd got in, this duck queen sure wouldn't complain...

 

[Glitch-EGamer]

I kind of feel like expecting a Gen 8 Pokemon and Byleth/Fire Emblem is the new Springman and Rex & Pyra of this portion of the DLC cycle. Everybody was convinced that those two would be promotional reps for recent Switch games in Nintendo's first batch of DLC before they had formally announced it and then the November Direct dropped and shattered that expectation. Now you have it with another two types of characters that are much less supported by the fans and just go deeper into already heavily represented series. I guess it just sounds a bit overly pessimistic/cynical about Nintendo's approach? They had the opportunity to do this once before and they still decided against it. I could easily see them choosing not to go for these characters because there's not as much demand and their goals have shifted with Smash in a lot of ways it seems. Pokemon maybe less so than Fire Emblem given it's kind of hard to ignore... but Fire Emblem I think is done for Ultimate outside of maybe promotional Spirits.

I don't think that's how that works. Rex and Pyra and Springman are very different circumstances. Those characters weren't allowed in because they were too recent during the development cycle. It had nothing to do with promotional means. A Gen 8 Pokemon (Sirfetch'd please!) and a Three Houses rep and heck, maybe even the Astral Chain protag are closer to the circumstances of Corrin than anything else. Heck, by the time we end the Fighter's Pass, none of those characters will really count as "promotional" because all the games they're from are all 2019 titles and we'll probably be a good chunk into 2020 before we see one, if any. I think they're all perfectly possible but definitely not for promotional reasons and I don't think they're being held back either. If Sakurai wants them, he'll get them.

 

[Rohanx17]

yeah it's all entirely up in the air until we see who the first new fighter will be and can get an idea of what their goals are after the fighter pass. That said I think counting anyone out in the same breath as betting on geno of all people doesn't make any sense.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

You can't say that the "Spirits deconfirm characters" argument is out of the window because it still holds ground as of now.

I know deconfirm is not a real word but deconfirm is a Smash community word and we're talking about video games so having a good look isn't all that necessary but whatever man. It's to-mate-o, to-mart-o in here.

The argument is pretty much out the window given that the central argument itself doesn't hold true anymore. The point of Spirits disconfirm is that they wouldn't include characters currently in negotiation as Spirits in the base game. If additional negotiations happened after that point then Spirits don't matter. At that point it's not like Sakurai and his team aren't going to go "We want to include Geno but he's a Spirit so it can't happen." That wouldn't make any sense. They'll include characters if they want to regardless of whether or not they're Spirits. It's clear you don't intend to change your mind though, so we'll just see who ends up being right.

The analogy of to-mate-o, to-mat-o doesn't hold up either since it's two different pronunciations of the same word. Disconfirm is a word, and deconfirm is not. I would encourage you to go against the regular trends of the Smash community given how many of them are wrong, but if you want to follow them then you do you.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

The argument is pretty much out the window given that the central argument itself doesn't hold true anymore. The point of Spirits disconfirm is that they wouldn't include characters currently in negotiation as Spirits in the base game. If additional negotiations happened after that point then Spirits don't matter. At that point it's not like Sakurai and his team aren't going to go "We want to include Geno but he's a Spirit so it can't happen." That wouldn't make any sense. They'll include characters if they want to regardless of whether or not they're Spirits. It's clear you don't intend to change your mind though, so we'll just see who ends up being right.

You're exactly right and there's some proof of that in Smash 4. Lucas and Mewtwo were both trophies and their models did not match their character portraits, so they were clearly made before it was decided those characters were going to be DLC. Sakurai didn't sit down and say "welp, we can't add Lucas and Mewtwo, we already made them trophies!" To me, the whole spirits deconfirm argument is ridiculous, especially now that we know there's more DLC characters on the way. Sakurai would not have limited 1,200+ potential DLC candidates. Back then people said "yeah, he could have if the Fighter's Pass was planned at the same time as spirits", but that's kind of thrown out the window now that we're getting even more characters. I doubt Sakurai planned that far in advance, but then again, I could be wrong.

 

[GenoFlash]

Alright, here's the skinny.

I think Geno *wasn't* going to be in the Fighter's Pass, but Season 2 changed that.

Here' my theory: Geno's Spirit was in the base game and his costume was going to come back with Hero. Instead, due to season 2 being planned by July the latest, Geno's costume was removed in favour of either:

- a new costume with a full helmet that covers the Mii's face, that comes with the music that was taken down from Youtube.

- Geno being promoted to a playable character.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I don't think that's how that works. Rex and Pyra and Springman are very different circumstances. Those characters weren't allowed in because they were too recent during the development cycle. It had nothing to do with promotional means. A Gen 8 Pokemon (Sirfetch'd please!) and a Three Houses rep and heck, maybe even the Astral Chain protag are closer to the circumstances of Corrin than anything else. Heck, by the time we end the Fighter's Pass, none of those characters will really count as "promotional" because all the games they're from are all 2019 titles and we'll probably be a good chunk into 2020 before we see one, if any. I think they're all perfectly possible but definitely not for promotional reasons and I don't think they're being held back either. If Sakurai wants them, he'll get them.

That explains why they weren't in base game, but it does not explain why they weren't just shifted to DLC. There was absolutely nothing preventing Sakurai and Nintendo from deciding to include those characters as post game content other than their specific agenda for the game. They made the Fighter's Pass and handled all of the DLC, and even included playable characters that debuted in 2017 in the game such as Luminary and Joker.

You're also getting too caught up on the idea of promotional as in specifically promoting a specific game at the time of their release. Characters can be promotional and release well before or after their parent game does. You're promoting the brand or franchise in the case of including Rex/Pyra and there is no time frame for that. Similarly, Nintendo wants all of their titles to be evergreen titles that sell throughout the Switch's life span. Bayonetta in Smash caused an immediate increase in sales of the Bayonetta games almost two years after Bayonetta 2 first released. Promotional isn't a bad thing inherently, so it can come at any point and potentially drive up sales further of games/promote the general brand of Bayonetta, Xenoblade Chronicles, etc. There's more than just the promotional of the day that a specific games comes out.

I'm also not sure the whole "If Sakurai wants them, he'll get them" line of thinking when Sakurai has told us on multiple occasions that he doesn't pick DLC, Nintendo does. I don't really think first party additions line up with where Sakurai and Nintendo are right now anyway though.

 

[Deleted member]

I think Geno has a much better chance since the costume is still missing and there will be more DLC. But my biggest concern is “Nintendo picking the DLC” narrative.

 

[Dinoman96]

Honestly, I do think we should probably wait and see who the first post-FP character is, to have an idea of what we're getting.

I remember how after the November Direct, people were insisting that Rex, Geno, Dixie, Banana Dee, etc had a chance at getting into the Fighters Pass, even after being turned into Mii outfits or spirits. My mindset, at the time, was just to wait and see who's the first DLC newcomer (after Piranha Plant of course), to get an idea of where we're at.

And the VGAs gave us our answer: a third party character with no presence in the base game.

Then what followed were, of course, more third party characters with no presence in the base game.

So yes, I'd say whoever is revealed first after the fifth Fighters Pass character, will most likely set the tone for what comes after.

 

[SKX31]

I think Geno has a much better chance since the costume is still missing and there will be more DLC. But my biggest concern is “Nintendo picking the DLC” narrative.

Hold on, I think there's something verifying that...

Ah yes. Sakurai's outright stated that in the recent column.

There's one reason I've been harping about Shuntaro Furukawa* (Nintendo's President and the chief exec) over at the main Speculation thread, and that's because of his long term goal of expanding Nintendo into regions where they've not been prominent. Furukawa's also the guy primarily above Sakurai as Executive Producer.

Furukawa's not an iron fist though - he gives Sakurai final say on characters after all. I mean, Furukawa's fully okay with the FP lineup - I wouldn't be surprised if he's outright positive about it. Also, it's worth emphasizing, Furukawa's very much aware that his goal is going to take time. I've suspected it's because he's a Famicom kid and very loyal to Nintendo - he's seen Nintendo change and expand slowly over time. (I'm convinced this is the case since Furukawa's past work before becoming President includes the Pokemon Company and Nintendo of Europe)

Still, Furukawa's a major influence on the DLC. For him, Sakurai's reasons are the prime factors, but having popularity worldwide (incl. minor regions he's looking to expand into and eventually turn into major regions for Nintendo) is a major plus for him as a marketing guy. I would not be surprised if he and his maneuvering helped Terry a lot, considering Nintendo's working with SNK's partners Tencent to release the Switch in China (which I've harped on as well). Terry just so happens to be pretty popular there.

So what does that mean for Geno and other characters not in? Honestly, Furukawa's moves have positives no matter what happens right now. The Switch has no region lock, which is a godsend to other regions that Nintendo's looking to expand into. If the Chinese Switch has no region lock you bet the Switch will gain a lot there just from that. All that's needed is SMRPG getting into the Switch store (no guarantee, but it's been ported before so I could easily see it). If that happens - there will be more eyeballs on SMRPG. Maybe quite a few trying it out.

That would mean one thing: The number of Geno fans go up. Quite a few from unusual places like China and Southeast Asia / Middle East this time around. Slowly, but surely.

I strongly doubt Furukawa holds any ill will towards Geno, it might just be the stiff competition from Sora, Lara or 2B that takes priority. Still, SMRPG getting a Switch release will only bode well for the doll's chances no matter what happens IMO.

*(I know, self-promoting, but credit goes to Intelliheath from ResetERA. Also to Nemuresu who posted this)

 

[Evil Trapezium]

The argument is pretty much out the window given that the central argument itself doesn't hold true anymore. The point of Spirits disconfirm is that they wouldn't include characters currently in negotiation as Spirits in the base game. If additional negotiations happened after that point then Spirits don't matter. At that point it's not like Sakurai and his team aren't going to go "We want to include Geno but he's a Spirit so it can't happen." That wouldn't make any sense. They'll include characters if they want to regardless of whether or not they're Spirits.

The thing is though we can't rule out the possibility that spirits do matter. Despite how stupid it sounds I don't think we should under estimate the importance of spirits. Spirits play a much larger role in Smash Ultimate than trophies do, being they are the basis of the adventure mode, giving the player power-ups and abilities, being promoted through in-game daily events and used as prizes for online tournaments. I believe Sakurai makes them out to be a much bigger deal than what we think about them. I'm aware that Mewtwo and Lucas both had pre-DLC trophies back in Smash 4 but trophies were a novelty while spirits have a practical use in game so things may change.

It's clear you don't intend to change your mind though, so we'll just see who ends up being right.

I'm more than willing to have my mind changed because my goal is not to win arguments. It's just that right now there seems to be more things leading to spirits deconfirming characters than there are things disproving the rule. During the Banjo & Kazooie presentation Sakurai wishes to bring in more game worlds which implies that he wants to continue bringing in characters new to the series and Nintendo's CEO, Shuntaro Furukawa in the financial report back in March is looking to draw in fans from other franchises to the Nintendo Switch which will influence what kind of characters Sakurai will be suggested.

 

[D0ct0r]

The fact that Geno's costume still hasn't returned even after Hero's release gives me hope but it reminds of of how Shadow's Assists Trophy wasn't shown until the very last Direct. Most people (especially me) thought he was a lock for an Echo slot at least, but the opposite happened. I hope the same doesn't happen with Geno, lol.

 

[Wish7s]

Hey friends, I'm opting in for Smash Summit 2 and it'd be a really big help if you guys could vote for me Thanks! https://smash.gg/tournament/smash-ultimate-summit-2/voting/943614

 

[Deleted member]

Hold on, I think there's something verifying that...

Ah yes. Sakurai's outright stated that in the recent column.

There's one reason I've been harping about Shuntaro Furukawa* (Nintendo's President and the chief exec) over at the main Speculation thread, and that's because of his long term goal of expanding Nintendo into regions where they've not been prominent. Furukawa's also the guy primarily above Sakurai as Executive Producer.

Furukawa's not an iron fist though - he gives Sakurai final say on characters after all. I mean, Furukawa's fully okay with the FP lineup - I wouldn't be surprised if he's outright positive about it. Also, it's worth emphasizing, Furukawa's very much aware that his goal is going to take time. I've suspected it's because he's a Famicom kid and very loyal to Nintendo - he's seen Nintendo change and expand slowly over time. (I'm convinced this is the case since Furukawa's past work before becoming President includes the Pokemon Company and Nintendo of Europe)

Still, Furukawa's a major influence on the DLC. For him, Sakurai's reasons are the prime factors, but having popularity worldwide (incl. minor regions he's looking to expand into and eventually turn into major regions for Nintendo) is a major plus for him as a marketing guy. I would not be surprised if he and his maneuvering helped Terry a lot, considering Nintendo's working with SNK's partners Tencent to release the Switch in China (which I've harped on as well). Terry just so happens to be pretty popular there.

So what does that mean for Geno and other characters not in? Honestly, Furukawa's moves have positives no matter what happens right now. The Switch has no region lock, which is a godsend to other regions that Nintendo's looking to expand into. If the Chinese Switch has no region lock you bet the Switch will gain a lot there just from that. All that's needed is SMRPG getting into the Switch store (no guarantee, but it's been ported before so I could easily see it). If that happens - there will be more eyeballs on SMRPG. Maybe quite a few trying it out.

That would mean one thing: The number of Geno fans go up. Quite a few from unusual places like China and Southeast Asia / Middle East this time around. Slowly, but surely.

I strongly doubt Furukawa holds any ill will towards Geno, it might just be the stiff competition from Sora, Lara or 2B that takes priority. Still, SMRPG getting a Switch release will only bode well for the doll's chances no matter what happens IMO.

*(I know, self-promoting, but credit goes to Intelliheath from ResetERA. Also to Nemuresu who posted this)

I can see SMRPG on Switch a way to benefit for Geno’s inclusion or a potential SMRPG remake. But the President is looking to draw in new fans by adding more popular franchises like Resident Evil. That could mean characters like Geno, BWD, Rex, and etc may not be a huge priority. And there are a lot more popular franchises not included like KH, RE, DOOM, Tales, Ninja Gaiden, Crash, Tekken, and so on. I can see 1st/2nd parties characters coming but not a lot. Perhaps promotional tools like FE Three Houses and Astral Chain. Nintendo didn’t gained anything from Banjo-Kazooie and Sakurai told the viewers to play the game on XBOX ONE though.

 

[Deleted member]

Honestly, I do think we should probably wait and see who the first post-FP character is, to have an idea of what we're getting.

I remember how after the November Direct, people were insisting that Rex, Geno, Dixie, Banana Dee, etc had a chance at getting into the Fighters Pass, even after being turned into Mii outfits or spirits. My mindset, at the time, was just to wait and see who's the first DLC newcomer (after Piranha Plant of course), to get an idea of where we're at.

And the VGAs gave us our answer: a third party character with no presence in the base game.

Then what followed were, of course, more third party characters with no presence in the base game.

So yes, I'd say whoever is revealed first after the fifth Fighters Pass character, will most likely set the tone for what comes after.

So if Geno got in as the first Post-FP character I wonder what he would say about the DLC going forward. I'm sure it would likely mean we're bound to get more fan demanded characters but I don't know about beyond that.

 

[SpiritOfRuin]

So personally I do think the spirits disconfirm argument is rather silly but the trophy argument does not hold water when you are comparing trophies to spirits because even though they don't really feel like it, spirits are intended to have much more impact on gameplay than trophies. I still don't think that spirits prevent a character from being a fighter but that particular trophy argument simply isn't valid.

And again, not saying I don't think spirits have a chance, but we simply do not know how DLC is being chosen. If Nintendo really is providing a "list" to Sakurai, then what's to say they aren't still using that list for the next DLC? And even if they are just providing singular requests with Sakurai having the ability to veto, that still doesn't mean that Nintendo didn't already have other fighters outside of the pass in mind. Right now we really don't know anything so I agree that we should just wait and see how things progress after the fighters pass.

Personally, I still think Geno is likely but by no means guaranteed or close to it. And I am really unsure about first party characters at this point. I do find it extremely bizarre that Porky is absent and I don't really know why they'd include him as a fighter (not that I would have a problem if they did) since there's not much that he could promote unless of course Mother/Earthbound is getting some ports, but I feel like he really does have a shot for some reason if first party is on the table.

I think, based on what we know, even if first party or already represented franchises get reps, the DLC will still be almost solely third party currently unrepresented franchises and I'm ok with that and understand trying to appeal to those outside of the "smash bubble" with occasional "smash bubble" picks or picks that appeal to both the "smash bubble" and those outside of it as base game and Banjo certainly did a lot to appeal to that "smash bubble" but who knows?

 

[BoyMan]

Hey friends, I'm opting in for Smash Summit 2 and it'd be a really big help if you guys could vote for me Thanks! https://smash.gg/tournament/smash-ultimate-summit-2/voting/943614

Done. Good luck on making it in!

 

[MattX20]

So, the Walmart of Canada twitter is now holding a poll regarding the DLC characters they mentioned. Currently, Geno is second only to Crash Bandicoot, with Sora in 3rd and Master Chief last. https://twitter.com/walmartcagaming/status/1175799157250039809?s=21

 

[catsforlife1]

Hold on, I think there's something verifying that...

Ah yes. Sakurai's outright stated that in the recent column.

There's one reason I've been harping about Shuntaro Furukawa* (Nintendo's President and the chief exec) over at the main Speculation thread, and that's because of his long term goal of expanding Nintendo into regions where they've not been prominent. Furukawa's also the guy primarily above Sakurai as Executive Producer.

Furukawa's not an iron fist though - he gives Sakurai final say on characters after all. I mean, Furukawa's fully okay with the FP lineup - I wouldn't be surprised if he's outright positive about it. Also, it's worth emphasizing, Furukawa's very much aware that his goal is going to take time. I've suspected it's because he's a Famicom kid and very loyal to Nintendo - he's seen Nintendo change and expand slowly over time. (I'm convinced this is the case since Furukawa's past work before becoming President includes the Pokemon Company and Nintendo of Europe)

Still, Furukawa's a major influence on the DLC. For him, Sakurai's reasons are the prime factors, but having popularity worldwide (incl. minor regions he's looking to expand into and eventually turn into major regions for Nintendo) is a major plus for him as a marketing guy. I would not be surprised if he and his maneuvering helped Terry a lot, considering Nintendo's working with SNK's partners Tencent to release the Switch in China (which I've harped on as well). Terry just so happens to be pretty popular there.

So what does that mean for Geno and other characters not in? Honestly, Furukawa's moves have positives no matter what happens right now. The Switch has no region lock, which is a godsend to other regions that Nintendo's looking to expand into. If the Chinese Switch has no region lock you bet the Switch will gain a lot there just from that. All that's needed is SMRPG getting into the Switch store (no guarantee, but it's been ported before so I could easily see it). If that happens - there will be more eyeballs on SMRPG. Maybe quite a few trying it out.

That would mean one thing: The number of Geno fans go up. Quite a few from unusual places like China and Southeast Asia / Middle East this time around. Slowly, but surely.

I strongly doubt Furukawa holds any ill will towards Geno, it might just be the stiff competition from Sora, Lara or 2B that takes priority. Still, SMRPG getting a Switch release will only bode well for the doll's chances no matter what happens IMO.

*(I know, self-promoting, but credit goes to Intelliheath from ResetERA. Also to Nemuresu who posted this)

I dont think this hurts geno. He may want more character that would bring more fans in but I feel like its not going to be all we are getting. Look at Banjo for example. Sure he is technically a x box character but 98 percent of the people who know about banjo and wanted him where nintendo fans. So I feel some of the dlc will be fan favorite characters like Geno.

 

[YsDisciple]

Just checked that Walmart Canada Gaming twitter poll and, Geno's ahead right now by 6%. Nice.

 

[Giga Kaiju]

Man, people were really traumatized by the picks of SM4SH DLC as characters.

There are a lot of people thinking that a FE & Pokémon Characters will come but we are not sure about it and the picks so far have been Third Party and seems to be the way of approach as of now.

Maybe we could a first party here and there later on but i doubt it.

.

 

[D0ct0r]

Yeah, Geno is leading the Wal-Mart poll. It feels gud.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

We're glad that you've been enjoying this hypothetical. Let's keep the #SmashBrosUltimate discussions going with a poll!

Vote for the ONE character you'd choose as DLC.
🔑😇🥭💫

— Walmart Canada Gaming (@WalmartCAGaming) September 22, 2019

Vote Geno

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Man, people were really traumatized by the picks of SM4SH DLC as characters.

There are a lot of people thinking that a FE & Pokémon Characters will come but we are not sure about it and the picks so far have been Third Party and seems to be the way of approach as of now.

Maybe we could a first party here and there later on but i doubt it.

.

Yeah, we've had exactly one First Party DLC newcomer compared to the 7 (and almost certainly 8) third party newcomers. I don't really get why people expect first parties that much at this point, they have a clear strategy and interest for Smash Bros. DLC, they're probably not going to change it up too much given its success.

We're glad that you've been enjoying this hypothetical. Let's keep the #SmashBrosUltimate discussions going with a poll!

Vote for the ONE character you'd choose as DLC.
🔑😇🥭💫

— Walmart Canada Gaming (@WalmartCAGaming) September 22, 2019

Vote Geno

This is a good example of the "Smash Bubble" at work that some of us talk about. We have a tendency to get overrepresented in polls specifically because we do everything that we can to perform well in them and promote people voting for characters on specific polls, and thus the same group of people generally ends up voting on such characters. It's important to us because we, as Geno fans, need all of the publicity we can get and absolutely have to push forward the ideas of him as a fan demanded character. We pay more attention to polls and vote more often in them because of that need, whereas other character support threads oftentimes don't pay attention to every little detail or don't necessarily need the fan support and perception in the same way.

I'm not saying Geno support isn't real or anything of the sort. But I am saying that this exactly the thing that myself and others have brought up with how the Smash Bubble works to not give as complete of a picture of the actual Smash population and people's feelings. The minute you post something like, "Go vote X or Y," you're actively decreasing the statistical validity of the test by pushing a population with a specific response bias (and the most to gain from responding in that particular way) into your experimental group (which is comprised of the total population of voluntary respondents) that's trying to gauge popularity of characters. And all kinds of fans will do this for different characters, which overall pushes the data into more specific directions and allows for the creation of blindspots that the "Smash Bubble" gets completely shocked by.

Again, this isn't to say that Geno isn't legitimately winning this poll, but I want to highlight the "Smash Bubble" effect that has been mentioned before and how this exactly plays into it.

 

[ForsakenM]

I'm still not sure your characterizing my stance on the diversity issue correctly. I'll admit I got frustrated with Terry in the moment because he seemed random and I had managed to completely miss SNK from afar... but in terms of representation, my arguments with you have been more about how it matters to people and that we should definitely be more receptive of that in the Smash community. My solution has always been the same of "pick important and popular characters that also bring in more diversity," though I may not have expressed that clearly enough at the time. I'm also not saying fandom picks are more important either, I'm just saying there's a way to get more diversity in Smash that also doesn't involve fundamentally changing Sakurai's approach to inclusions in the game and the audience can be eased into (which, it's easier to work our way there with the Smash audience that big moving action if I've learned anything, that's how we got third parties to the point they are).

Okay, that's fair, but I will say it came off rather strong in those prior posts and this particular subject is something that I see as a encroaching problem in gaming...so it may have been both projected as strong AND seen as strong based on my own bias. I'll admit I have that, and though I do my best to quell it and listen to both sides, anything even remotely related to modern politics and the weird and crazy stuff in modern society gets me instantly wary and prepared for battle I suppose. I know how you feel about representation in politics, so let's leave that conversation for another time in PMs.

I'm still sticking hard behind the representation matters and should be an important thing to the game because I think it's generally very important to all media, but I also have my own ideas as to the method of improving that representation and I think there's a great path forward in Smash that makes a lot of people happy in the process (at least with regards to increasing the female representation in the roster, other areas of diversity are still unfortunately not in a great place in gaming and Smash can only reflect gaming, it can't exactly innovate with new characters). I've really not changed on this particular issue.

I also haven't changed my stance: I think personal representation via identification has little to no place in choosing Smash's characters. The only things that should matter are how requested a character is, their historical impact on gaming history, and Sakurai's personal bias. If we start adding in criteria for character choices based on demographics...it will be a mess. Suddenly you have quotas for representation to meet. You NEED more females or more minorities or more of whatever is a big deal at the moment and it becomes less about what it should be: fan picks, iconic faces, and Sakurai bias. I know the 'slippery slope' argument is dumb, but if what we have going on outside the gaming sphere and even in it in some places is a sign, it's not unrealistic.

I've been over it many times in this thread, I'm not a contrarian. I'm a skeptic and a realist who enjoys taking speculation a little more seriously because I enjoy approaching it that way. People call me a contrarian because I stay in the Geno thread as a fan and don't always talk about Geno's chances in the positive and I have very little patience for theories in the community with regards to speculation. People call me a more moderate fan of Geno or whatever they wish, but that's how I've supported the character. I don't and never have adopted positions just to argue with others. I just tend to end up on the opposite side of things with people in this thread. DaybreakHorizon can probably vouch that I don't sound like a contrarian when I'm posting in the Newcomer speculation thread too often. I just have more of a tendency to approach topics in a way that some Smash fans don't particularly like. My views and analysis just don't end up matching with other people's too often it seems.

I have nothing against a Geno fan not always being happy-go-lucky about his chances 24/7. Some people see more light at the end of the tunnel than others, that is just life. I also never called you a contrarian: I specifically said I refuse to label you as such. You put it much more elegant, but you tend to take the weaker side in an argument, be it weaker for whatever reason it may be. That is your prerogative. I'm not sure about that last bit but I just have to take your word on it. I can understand not matching with other people: most of my ideals are rather against the modern grain and some people may find them old fashioned, yet not so old fashioned. I was raised on the ideals and principles of a God-fearing man who was born in the early 50s and busted his ass to get everything he ever had, and ideals like 'having integrity even when no one else would know or care' and 'suck it up, Buttercup' combined with some more modern ideals and the weird angle of having Asperger's Syndrome and you got a stance that most people don't understand.

That explains why they weren't in base game, but it does not explain why they weren't just shifted to DLC. There was absolutely nothing preventing Sakurai and Nintendo from deciding to include those characters as post game content other than their specific agenda for the game. They made the Fighter's Pass and handled all of the DLC, and even included playable characters that debuted in 2017 in the game such as Luminary and Joker.

You're also getting too caught up on the idea of promotional as in specifically promoting a specific game at the time of their release. Characters can be promotional and release well before or after their parent game does. You're promoting the brand or franchise in the case of including Rex/Pyra and there is no time frame for that. Similarly, Nintendo wants all of their titles to be evergreen titles that sell throughout the Switch's life span. Bayonetta in Smash caused an immediate increase in sales of the Bayonetta games almost two years after Bayonetta 2 first released. Promotional isn't a bad thing inherently, so it can come at any point and potentially drive up sales further of games/promote the general brand of Bayonetta, Xenoblade Chronicles, etc. There's more than just the promotional of the day that a specific games comes out.

I'm also not sure the whole "If Sakurai wants them, he'll get them" line of thinking when Sakurai has told us on multiple occasions that he doesn't pick DLC, Nintendo does. I don't really think first party additions line up with where Sakurai and Nintendo are right now anyway though.

You basically said everything I was going to say about this, though I disagree with that last past. It's much more like Nintendo has a big list and Sakurai looks at that big list and picks some.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

I changed the background to make it Mario 3 inspired but I'll probably change it again later to match the Forest Maze somehow

 

[Rohanx17]

Geno is some 200 votes over 2nd place. thats crazy cool and too many for a few dozen people max sent over from here to actually be making the difference. I'm glad to all the efforts over the years have put geno in the spotlight to where brand accounts are talking about him on social media. Crazy how much power the internet really has on marketing and public visibility.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Okay, that's fair, but I will say it came off rather strong in those prior posts and this particular subject is something that I see as a encroaching problem in gaming...so it may have been both projected as strong AND seen as strong based on my own bias. I'll admit I have that, and though I do my best to quell it and listen to both sides, anything even remotely related to modern politics and the weird and crazy stuff in modern society gets me instantly wary and prepared for battle I suppose. I know how you feel about representation in politics, so let's leave that conversation for another time in PMs.

I also haven't changed my stance: I think personal representation via identification has little to no place in choosing Smash's characters. The only things that should matter are how requested a character is, their historical impact on gaming history, and Sakurai's personal bias. If we start adding in criteria for character choices based on demographics...it will be a mess. Suddenly you have quotas for representation to meet. You NEED more females or more minorities or more of whatever is a big deal at the moment and it becomes less about what it should be: fan picks, iconic faces, and Sakurai bias. I know the 'slippery slope' argument is dumb, but if what we have going on outside the gaming sphere and even in it in some places is a sign, it's not unrealistic.

I have nothing against a Geno fan not always being happy-go-lucky about his chances 24/7. Some people see more light at the end of the tunnel than others, that is just life. I also never called you a contrarian: I specifically said I refuse to label you as such. You put it much more elegant, but you tend to take the weaker side in an argument, be it weaker for whatever reason it may be. That is your prerogative. I'm not sure about that last bit but I just have to take your word on it. I can understand not matching with other people: most of my ideals are rather against the modern grain and some people may find them old fashioned, yet not so old fashioned. I was raised on the ideals and principles of a God-fearing man who was born in the early 50s and busted his *** to get everything he ever had, and ideals like 'having integrity even when no one else would know or care' and 'suck it up, Buttercup' combined with some more modern ideals and the weird angle of having Asperger's Syndrome and you got a stance that most people don't understand.

You basically said everything I was going to say about this, though I disagree with that last past. It's much more like Nintendo has a big list and Sakurai looks at that big list and picks some.

I still think you're being way too reductive of the reasons to choose characters. We already have demographic choices in Smash for example; Ridley and Little Mac for Western audiences, Hero more for Japanese audiences, Terry and SNK for Japanese, Chinese, and Latin American audiences (SNK is the largest in these regions, it has an American audience like all things, but it's much less of a culturally relevant series in the same ways it appears in other regions). We more or less have a Pokemon quota at this point and it turns out fine too. I don't see any reason to take issue with people calling for more representation in that sense because it is a slippery slope argument that just assumes we're somehow going to completely forget about Smash's identity in the process. I realize that some people do advocate for that unfortunately, but there's a middle ground here like including Lara Croft. Even if you don't personally ascribe to the ideas of representation through identification, others do and value it in the media they consume. There's a way to get to more female characters and characters of color that doesn't inherently involve sacrificing Smash's core identity or us tripping down said slippery slope. Throwing out that possibility just because some people fail to properly voice their thoughts on diversity in gaming or actively voice it in occasionally harmful ways feels a bit like throwing the baby out with the bath water and empowering those specific voices far too much in comparison to others.

Well you went right up to the line of calling me a contrarian in all of your context and your last post, then highlighted not calling me a contrarian. Your actions speak louder than your words in that (or well, the rest of your words speak louder than your specific attempt to present yourself as more neutral in your personal assessment). Just because you don't directly vocalize something doesn't necessarily mean you're not actually saying something more specific with the rest of how you speak. Call a spade, a spade mentality and all that.

Geno is some 200 votes over 2nd place. thats crazy cool and too many for a few dozen people max sent over from here to actually be making the difference. I'm glad to all the efforts over the years have put geno in the spotlight to where brand accounts are talking about him on social media. Crazy how much power the internet really has on marketing and public visibility.

That's not the point of me bringing up where we send people, I'm just saying it has a serious impact on how you interpret the polling in any larger analysis of these types of polls and would call into question the validity of any statistical tests you performed on such data. It's to highlight how we specifically contribute to the issue of voluntary response bias, not completely de-legitimize his performance on it.

 

[Ovaltine]

That's not the point of me bringing up where we send people, I'm just saying it has a serious impact on how you interpret the polling in any larger analysis of these types of polls and would call into question the validity of any statistical tests you performed on such data. It's to highlight how we specifically contribute to the issue of voluntary response bias, not completely de-legitimize his performance on it.

It's a point of fascination, really. Besides, I wouldn't take a poll like this seriously at all. It's just for funsies. If anything, the only thing I'd take away from this is, "Wow, an official Walmart corporate account acknowledged Geno. Cool!"

 

[Axelocke]

Thanks Walmart, very cool.

Imagine if this was a marketing ploy by Nintendo to decide the next DLC lmao

 

[ForsakenM]

I still think you're being way too reductive of the reasons to choose characters. We already have demographic choices in Smash for example; Ridley and Little Mac for Western audiences, Hero more for Japanese audiences, Terry and SNK for Japanese, Chinese, and Latin American audiences (SNK is the largest in these regions, it has an American audience like all things, but it's much less of a culturally relevant series in the same ways it appears in other regions). We more or less have a Pokemon quota at this point and it turns out fine too. I don't see any reason to take issue with people calling for more representation in that sense because it is a slippery slope argument that just assumes we're somehow going to completely forget about Smash's identity in the process. I realize that some people do advocate for that unfortunately, but there's a middle ground here like including Lara Croft. Even if you don't personally ascribe to the ideas of representation through identification, others do and value it in the media they consume. There's a way to get to more female characters and characters of color that doesn't inherently involve sacrificing Smash's core identity or us tripping down said slippery slope. Throwing out that possibility just because some people fail to properly voice their thoughts on diversity in gaming or actively voice it in occasionally harmful ways feels a bit like throwing the baby out with the bath water and empowering those specific voices far too much in comparison to others.

Well you went right up to the line of calling me a contrarian in all of your context and your last post, then highlighted not calling me a contrarian. Your actions speak louder than your words in that (or well, the rest of your words speak louder than your specific attempt to present yourself as more neutral in your personal assessment). Just because you don't directly vocalize something doesn't necessarily mean you're not actually saying something more specific with the rest of how you speak. Call a spade, a spade mentality and all that.

I mean you can take it however you want. I'm not going to call you anything, but I will point out what I see. Nothing more or less here.

As for demographics, I think we kind of understand each other...kinda. What I'm about to say may be controversial, but I avoided posting it awhile ago and it seems inevitable. I'll just post it now and I hope people really understand what I'm getting at rather than taking a glance and assuming the worst.

I'll make it basic: I REALLY get irked when people 'just want a female character' or 'we need more female characters' because it not only makes it seem like other characters are less important because they AREN'T female and therefore big fan picks like Geno or Crash don't matter as much because they AREN'T female, but it makes female characters seem like the only thing that IS important is that they ARE female. That means Chun-Li or Jill Valentine or Lara Croft or Dixie Kong or Krystal are important SOLELY due to being female. It also makes me sad at how basic of an opinion or personality someone can have, but let's stick to Smash.

I'm SO down with all those character getting in, but the idea that people want them JUST because of a basic thing everyone has just irks me. Like Chun-Li avenging her father and protecting the people as essentially a special forces police officer doesn't matter. Jill Valentine being a BADASS ***** doesn't matter. Lara Croft being an icon in gaming doesn't matter, Dixie being retro doesn't matter, Krystal being...Krystal doesn't matter, Shantae being an awesome magical half-genie doesn't matter. Hell, I don't really want Tracer, but she's more than just a female or just a lesbian: she's quirky, British, has time-wimey powers and from what I've heard actual cool Overwatch lore has deepened her character (fact check me on this please). But screw all of that because we just need more females because we need more females, and I hate it, and I hate the idea of this ideal actually being used as a inclusion factor by developers. To me, that means that not only are fans (and often times, non-fans who won't by the game anyway) seeing characters for a shadow of what they are, but also devs would be doing the same thing, and that is a step towards lowering the quality of gaming because gaming is a medium that requires some sort of story and a story needs characters.

This isn't just about Smash either. This happened with Dragonball Fighters. Everyone was saying 'add Videl' or 'add Kale/Caulifla/Kefla' or 'add Chi-Chi' or 'I'll take Bulma at this point' all because 'we need more females.' I'm sorry, but no: we need fan favorites like Master Roshi, Hercule, Great Saiyaman (who is part of Videl's moveset and I LOVE IT!), Kid Goku and Toppo. Videl and Kale/Caulifla/Kefla were heavily requested as well, and I personally wanted Videl because I love how her playstyle is mostly rushdown and how she could bring in Great Saiyaman with her, but thinking they only matter because of their gender? Wanting to include them just for their gender? Come on, man! There is so much more to them than that!

Ideally, I believe that this will eventually die down as gaming naturally accrues more likable female leads. This applies to things outside gender too. We just need more games that are good and have likable characters that JUST SO HAPPEN to fall under certain demographics. It's already happening and so many devs make it so natural too, as it well should be. You don't force it, and you DEFINITELY don't make weak one-dimensional characters where their demographic is the only thing about them. I feel like fan demand in Smash is already showing this, what with all the pull for Frisk and Shantae. There just needs to be more of it made, and it needs to be good.

To actually respond to what you said after that wall, I'm not sure that I disagree with you. Representation isn't bad. Specifically grabbing characters that big portions of the world like is a really good thing for multiple reasons. If Sakurai decided to pick a character that appealed to female gamers I wouldn't bat an eye. That character would likely be female, but it might not be, and either way I would be like 'Yeah that makes sense, women are a big demographic and the pick makes sense overall. Good call Sakurai!' There is a difference between picking a character that represents a very large part of your target audience and picking a character because you need to meet a 'representation quota'.

As for how you are talking about this poll...I'm not sure I get it at all. How does maybe 20-30 people coming from a another website entirely to vote for the character they like when literally everyone else is doing that and that is THE WHOLE POINT mean anything significant. If more of us care to vote for Geno than other care to vote for the other three, that just means more of us here care about showing our support in this one poll than others for their character. You'd be surprised at how many people have an opinion and don't give it, even when gifted an opportunity.

 

[YsDisciple]

takes a sip out of Kero Kero Cola cup

Ahhhh. Ladies and gentlemen, a good day/evening to all. It is yet another day that despite one's individual circumstances, it is exactly that; another day, another chance. I stand by as I've mentioned before; this time, Geno is in (as a fighter). I'll welcome the ocean of salt if the result is otherwise (metaphorically speaking of course ).

Beyond the expectations of Geno however, I must add that Super Smash Bros. Ultimate truly is a wonderful game. To think that all those years ago, a series that began on the N64 would bloom to what many can agree to consider it a sort of Gaming's Hall of Fame. Certainly weighing more Nintendo IPs than not, but this entry within the series has brought together characters many of our younger selves only dreamed of [all beginning with the fateful third entry (Brawl)].

The current Fighters Pass in my humblest opinion, has been stellar. I'm acquainted more-so with Banjo & Kazooie, somewhat of Fatal Fury/King of Fighters, and familiar with the Dragon Quest series, yet each character within the Pass has proven paramount for Ultimate's success. The Fighters Pass itself has helped Ultimate mark it's place within video gaming history by bringing together over 30 video game franchises/series (36 counting playable fighters); some representing not only popular and beloved series, but those that pioneered certain gaming genres. That of course is only what the game on its own provides (and then some), but throughout Smash's history, the series grew to something greater than itself. The idea of one man became the starting point for many whom those who've followed most of Smash news (particularly tournaments) are familiar with. Names such as Hungrybox, Mango, Mew2King, ESAM, SuperGirlKels, D1, Armada, Gimr, among many others who have become renowned names within the Smash community either as professional competitors, tournament commentators, content creators, tournament organizers. Super Smash Bros. gave all these people an opportunity to develop skills which they utilize today, and one of the culminations of this collective effort could be considered not only Ultimate's creation, but also Nintendo stepping in to lend a hand to the community by organizing their own official tournaments.

To conclude, and returning to the topic of DLC, I trust that the 5th fighter of the current pass, and the other upcoming fighters will not disappoint. Trust in Sakurai.

 

[kiteinthesky]

Yeah, we've had exactly one First Party DLC newcomer compared to the 7 (and almost certainly 8) third party newcomers. I don't really get why people expect first parties that much at this point, they have a clear strategy and interest for Smash Bros. DLC, they're probably not going to change it up too much given its success.



This is a good example of the "Smash Bubble" at work that some of us talk about. We have a tendency to get overrepresented in polls specifically because we do everything that we can to perform well in them and promote people voting for characters on specific polls, and thus the same group of people generally ends up voting on such characters. It's important to us because we, as Geno fans, need all of the publicity we can get and absolutely have to push forward the ideas of him as a fan demanded character. We pay more attention to polls and vote more often in them because of that need, whereas other character support threads oftentimes don't pay attention to every little detail or don't necessarily need the fan support and perception in the same way.

I'm not saying Geno support isn't real or anything of the sort. But I am saying that this exactly the thing that myself and others have brought up with how the Smash Bubble works to not give as complete of a picture of the actual Smash population and people's feelings. The minute you post something like, "Go vote X or Y," you're actively decreasing the statistical validity of the test by pushing a population with a specific response bias (and the most to gain from responding in that particular way) into your experimental group (which is comprised of the total population of voluntary respondents) that's trying to gauge popularity of characters. And all kinds of fans will do this for different characters, which overall pushes the data into more specific directions and allows for the creation of blindspots that the "Smash Bubble" gets completely shocked by.

Again, this isn't to say that Geno isn't legitimately winning this poll, but I want to highlight the "Smash Bubble" effect that has been mentioned before and how this exactly plays into it.

But this is a poll from Walmart Canada, so how could you possibly argue his poll results are the sole result of a loud and vocal minority?

You know Wendy's supports Geno in Smash, right? They tweeted about it on *their* Twitter account. His popularity is and always has been very real and very legitimate.

 

[Vector Victor]

A division of a major consumer corporation refers to several famous well known gaming characters for DLC and includes a 20+ year character from one game as a hopeful for a major massive series like Smash.

Irrelevant my ass.

Sakurai,
Nintendo,
Square.

The desire is there. The demand is there. The fanbase is there. The hope of a true fighter addition is there. People want him. 20+ years and the support is the strongest since.

How much more do you need to make him playable?

JUST.
DO.
IT.

 

[Datboigeno]

This is a good example of the "Smash Bubble" at work that some of us talk about. We have a tendency to get overrepresented in polls specifically because we do everything that we can to perform well in them and promote people voting for characters on specific polls, and thus the same group of people generally ends up voting on such characters. It's important to us because we, as Geno fans, need all of the publicity we can get and absolutely have to push forward the ideas of him as a fan demanded character. We pay more attention to polls and vote more often in them because of that need, whereas other character support threads oftentimes don't pay attention to every little detail or don't necessarily need the fan support and perception in the same way.

I'm not saying Geno support isn't real or anything of the sort. But I am saying that this exactly the thing that myself and others have brought up with how the Smash Bubble works to not give as complete of a picture of the actual Smash population and people's feelings. The minute you post something like, "Go vote X or Y," you're actively decreasing the statistical validity of the test by pushing a population with a specific response bias (and the most to gain from responding in that particular way) into your experimental group (which is comprised of the total population of voluntary respondents) that's trying to gauge popularity of characters. And all kinds of fans will do this for different characters, which overall pushes the data into more specific directions and allows for the creation of blindspots that the "Smash Bubble" gets completely shocked by.

Again, this isn't to say that Geno isn't legitimately winning this poll, but I want to highlight the "Smash Bubble" effect that has been mentioned before and how this exactly plays into it.

This feels like a huge stretch. All fans try to make their favorites look good on polls. You don't think Sora fans name search to like and contribute to conversations about Sora getting into Smash and voting on any poll they can? And do you really think the maybe 20 people from this thread that voted on the poll out of the over 1000 that voted last time I checked was enough to pull Geno into a decisive lead? Because I really don't think so. Encouraging people to vote for a poll in this thread isn't any different from people from different fandoms on twitter getting clued into it happening because someone they followed liked or commented on it. If anything it gives it more validity. A bigger sample size is always better. I don't understand moving goalposts in order to somehow paint the results as less valid.

Also I don't understand the mentality that we're not representative of the "actual Smash population". It's such a weird criticism when by all accounts the things that are favored by the "Smash Bubble" do line up with what people want outside of it. People within the community wanted Banjo, Ridley, and K. Rool for years and they've been the biggest announcements by far in terms of reception. Why? Because people in general liked them. Not just the "Smash bubble".

Also what blindspots are there really? What has the community been "shocked" by?

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Also what blindspots are there really? What has the community been "shocked" by?

Probably Bayonetta and Simon Belmont since Sakurai said they were highly requested in the Smash Ballot and both didn't have that big of a demand in the "Smash bubble" online.