G3S Mafia #4 | Game over - Town wins!

Xatres

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Nah, I'm no fan of quicklynches.

MB and Sokr are our best traitor options. Traitor-MB could be recruited by Joey, since traitor is town-aligned, right?
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Not scum, Joey can confirm. We're masons now. Try harder, Zen.
Alrighty.

So you and Joey are masons, who was the masoner?

Sokr was roleblocked so Sokr can't be the goon.

Ok so, not goon,

Sokr/Scary/Joey/MB?

Not traitor just Scary and one of MB or Joey.

Finding goon first will win it.

Zen/Xastrn/Kafke.
 

Xatres

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I guess I will post my notes on Sokr, actually, and we can see if they somehow fit with a traitor role... Using collapse tags for ease of reading.

Keep in mind these were written with goon-Sokr in mind...

[collapse="Rundown on Sokr/Potassium Scumteam - PART 1: Answering Wifom"]Thought I'd get this out of the way first. My case for a Sokr/Potassium scumteam comes down to two important factors.

1) Individual Scumminess (covered extensively D1)
2) Connections between the players

The big wifom objection here is this: "If they are scummates, why would they buddy up like they did?"

The answer to that question is simple: They only had two choices. Because Potassium and Sokr are one of the dGames dynamic duos, people are expecting reads from them almost from the very start of the Day. In that light, they could either a) Bus each other from the start or b) Support each other from the start, and try to provide outs as best they could.

The fact that this is a duo pair means that any of the regular arguments about scummates buddying go right out the window. We have to look at their actions in the context of their relationship.

That means looking at individual actions, basic connections, and reactions to town events.[/collapse]

[collapse="Rundown on Sokr/Potassium Scumteam - PART 2: Connections"]Connection #1: Both players gave each other townreads throughout the game
- Neither ever sufficiently backed up their reads throughout D1
- This is a pair that will supposedly to always know
- Potassium was scum, meaning Sokr was lying or wrong

Connection #2: When heat came down on Sokr, both immediately pushed other lynches
- Potassium pushes Xatres lynch
- Sokr pushes FroMar lynch
- When Xatres doesn't pan out, Potassium flip flops like a pancake on Scary (eventually scumslipping)

Connection #3: Potassium defends Sokr
- Potassium was using fake notes the whole game to prove towniness
- He tries to use these notes to clear Sokr and incriminate me
- Says some of Sokr's play is "confusing" while still concluding he's town (leaving himself outs if Sokr is lynched)

Connection #4: When heat came down on Potassium, the pair scatters.
- Part of the heat on the pair argued they were both scum (see my case)
- Potassium gives some AtE defense, then basically checks out of the thread
- Sokr continues pushing FroMar, and then sets up a TvS argument against FroMar and Rake (both now known to be town)
- Sokr never defends his townread of Potassium, barely comments on the case the entire time, and only offers a single random comment after the lynch is complete.

Connection #5.1: Sokr inadvertedly uses some Potassium-eque language
- Potassium's attack on me framed my desire to "instigate conversation" as a fake means of appearing like a townie
- Potassium harps on this many times (see the exchange about my self-vote/his pushes on me throughout D1)
- Potassium's scummate would know this was part of his strategy
- Sokr uses the phrase "pardon my Xatres" with Potassium's exact meaning, in the pajoritive sense, despite never pushing against me or publically agreeing with Potassium about my play (remember, he claims his own vote/unvote on me was a joke)

http://smashboards.com/threads/g3s-mafia-4-day-2.342279/page-14#post-15994159

Connection #5.2: Sokr drops a line about "taking notes"
- We know that Potassium's notes were garbage, designed to manipulate town from the very beginning of the game
- Potassium's scummate would know this was part of this strategy
- In the middle of the heat on Potassium, Sokr is pushing FroMar and drops the line "i need to start keeping notes"

http://smashboards.com/threads/g3s-mafia-4-day-2.342279/page-18#post-16000317[/collapse]
 

Xatres

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Continued...

[collapse="Rundown on Sokr/Potassium Scumteam - PART 3: Rake's Death"]Going into D2, here are some facts we know...

1) Sokr claimed Potassium was town, and was either wrong or lying
2) Sokr tried to set up TvS with Rake/FroMar D1, both flipped town
3) Scary claimed Roleblocker, a devasting role for scum to leave on the board, and yet Rake dies

instead

The biggest thing of interest is this... Why did Rake die?

If scum had a guaranteed kill of a town PR with Scary, then why go off book on the off-chance that Rake might be the Vig/Mason. It's POSSIBLE that they deduced a high likelihood of Rake being Vig from comments D1, but I can't imagine choosing a guess over a sure thing.

Rake died for a reason, and I think that reason was to reduce suspicion on Sokr. Rake was one of two players yesterDay (besides myself) who was likely to believe a Sokr/Potassium scumteam was possible. Zen had already established that he thought it was a T/S scenario, and I was outspoken in thinking they were S/S. Rake was a wild card. We know he thought a Sokr scumflip would incriminate Potassium, but we never got a statement on what he thought the other way around.

If Sokr were scum, that would leave him with two players who had his number. Rake was the most desirable choice, for several reasons:

a) Rake had far more town-cred than I did
b) I was very outspoken about my beliefs in their scumteam, making my death VERY obvious
c) Sokr had already set up TvS for Rake/FroMar, and FroMar was already disliked by many in town, so Rake's death would allow him an easier D2 mislynch

If Sokr isn't scum, then I can't think of any reason that Rake should die instead of Scary. Scary was a confirmed townie with a huge PR, while Rake was a semi-confirmed townie with (maybe) some evidence to say he might be Vig. Scary was a better NK target by far for any scum player other than Sokr.[/collapse]
 

#HBC | Scary

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I literally spent the last hour and a half typing up a post about why I thought Sokr was scum with Potassium, and you just have to go and ruin it. :cry:

Unvote
My bad! Why'd it get ruined? I never mind any extra information to help understand reads.

When MB said they were masons now, was that a claim or them being recruited?
 

Xatres

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I don't at all want to lynch in the mason area til we find the goon, lynching the goon wins the game for town.
Which is exactly why I don't want to quicklynch. If we can find the goon, let's do that. But killing the traitor buys us an extra day phase, more connection info, and a smaller pool of goon candidates, so we shouldn't take the option completely off the table.
 

Xatres

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My bad! Why'd it get ruined? I never mind any extra information to help understand reads.

When MB said they were masons now, was that a claim or them being recruited?
I'd bet my lucky penny that Joey was the Mason and MB was the recruit. (If I had a lucky penny to bet, that is.)
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Which is exactly why I don't want to quicklynch. If we can find the goon, let's do that. But killing the traitor buys us an extra day phase, more connection info, and a smaller pool of goon candidates, so we shouldn't take the option completely off the table.
It does but the goon is the one with the gun, ending him wins it off sheer numbers.

I agree no quicklynching.

Also I want Scary to announce his RB target before we go into the night phase after this day phase in-case he dies so we get more clears going into the night phase.

Unless scum tried to No-kill in which case it's still better for us.
 

#HBC | Scary

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I'm loving those notes Xat.

I do have a question though. I RBed Sokr. Assuming Sokr scum may not work just because they wouldn't have a way to NK Rake. Also assuming that we still dislike MB, could MB be the goon?
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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I'm loving those notes Xat.

I do have a question though. I RBed Sokr. Assuming Sokr scum may not work just because they wouldn't have a way to NK Rake. Also assuming that we still dislike MB, could MB be the goon?
Neither MB nor Joey can be the goon because rhe masoner would die if they targeted him, also if he is lying then a CC would make it apparent one of him or a person CCing is scum.

Scary, you roleblocking Sokr when a kill went through means Sokr can't have pulled the trigger so he can't be the goon.
 

Xivii

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As Ruy said goon is between Me/Ruy/Xast/Kafk

We lynch Ruy/Xast/Kafk.
Scary role blocks between the two we didn't lynch.
If there is no kill we lynch the person Scary Role blocked. If there is a kill, we lynch the person Scary didn't role block.
If mafia simply no killed, and the person we lynched on D3 wasn't the goon, then Scary role blocks the other person and we lynch him the next day.

We don't really need to figure it out when winning is inevitable. Let's just quicklynch away. There's no possible way mafia can win.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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As Ruy said goon is between Me/Ruy/Xast/Kafk

We lynch Ruy/Xast/Kafk.
Scary role blocks between the two we didn't lynch.
If there is no kill we lynch the person Scary Role blocked. If there is a kill, we lynch the person Scary didn't role block.
If mafia simply no killed, and the person we lynched on D3 wasn't the goon, then Scary role blocks the other person and we lynch him the next day.

We don't really need to figure it out when winning is inevitable. Let's just quicklynch away. There's no possible way mafia can win.
There is a way town can lose.

If they snag a ML twice in the group of four and can manage to kill scary the next night.

I'm playing tales of Xillia atm, will get back to the reread later
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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As Ruy said goon is between Me/Ruy/Xast/Kafk

We lynch Ruy/Xast/Kafk.
Scary role blocks between the two we didn't lynch.
If there is no kill we lynch the person Scary Role blocked. If there is a kill, we lynch the person Scary didn't role block.
If mafia simply no killed, and the person we lynched on D3 wasn't the goon, then Scary role blocks the other person and we lynch him the next day.

We don't really need to figure it out when winning is inevitable. Let's just quicklynch away. There's no possible way mafia can win.
I want to trust you and put you in my auto town but I am concerned with the though of Quick lynching, since if I was wrong about you that could set you up for the win.

You wouldn't be my first pick nor the one I would lynch today, I think the goon is between Kakfa and Xastrn, but I'm paranoid in a lylo situation.

What do you think between the Four of us?
 

Xivii

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Two ML's isn't possible since it's really between the 3. Unless you think that I could have bussed Potassium. Which I don't think is possible.
 

Dooms

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Oh.

Okay, so if we're outed...

Not saying who recruited who. Priority should be hitting the goon so that we can get rid of kills. Will claim who recruited who after we lynch goon.
 

Xatres

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@Zen: While you choosing to bus Potassium with Sokr right there is highly unlikely, aren't you exactly the type of player who would do so? (If I've read up on your meta correctly)
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Oh.

Okay, so if we're outed...

Not saying who recruited who. Priority should be hitting the goon so that we can get rid of kills. Will claim who recruited who after we lynch goon.
I'm more in favor of you claiming this because it limits scum trying to CC within you two of one of you is the traitor.

Basically I don't want a lylo where you both get there and claim, "I'm the masoner" at each other. Which is a mess to deal with.
 

Xivii

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No. I never bus my scummates. See: Fire Emblem.

And as you said Sokr was on the brink of being lynched when I switched to Potassium. Not to mention all the other lynch choices yesterday including yourself.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Two ML's isn't possible since it's really between the 3. Unless you think that I could have bussed Potassium. Which I don't think is possible.
It's possible, bare unllikely and something I don't think is the alternative to the goon being in Kafka and Xastrn.

But it's something I might have to look at down the road.
 

Xivii

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Sigh I just really wanted the game to have been over by today. I'll look through the posts now and get back to you Scary.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Lol no.

If Scary is scum trying to out a PR then someone should DEFINITELY CC. I'll trade the scum for the rb and day.

Besides, why would scum want to out the rb of all roles? Vig or mason recruiter are much better roles to out.

unvote
Delving on this post.

The tone, would he post to his mate like this?
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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Left/Top= More Town

Strong Town:Ruy (strongest), Kafk, Rake, Me (Weakest n_n)
Weak Town: Scary
Very Weak Town Leans: Xastrn,

Null: Magic Bounce

Very Weak Scum Leans: FroMarsh, Joey
Weak Scum: Sokr
Strong Scum: Kantrip


As good as Kantrip has been playing, I don't really like his recent attempt to keep Scary on the shadowy side. I also think that his continued push of Xastrn is suspicious. And his recent multitude of milt-quote posts seem to be more about influence more than about scum hunting. I don't think he and Sokr are Scum together, so I think scum team is probably something like Kantrip, FroMa, and Joey. I think that Magic Bounce could replace either Joey or FroMa. I think Sokr may be trying to just play more active and thus some of his posts may have been forced, but not scum-forced. I think Kantrip is trying to white-knight Sokr, keeping Sokr as an ally and getting town points upon a Sokr scum flip. I don't quite remember any interaction between Kantrip and Magic Bounce so there is a good possibility they are scum together if I'm wrong on Fromarsh & Joey. If I'm wrong on both Fromarsh and Joey, one of my town peeps could certainly be the Traitor, especially Xastrn. (So it would be Kantrip-Bounce mafia with Xast or another town peep as traitor). Either way I think Kantrip is at the center here and would like his lynch.
Zen was the first to bring Kantrip front and center.

Kafka ignored it as being scummy though and passed over it.

Hmm, Defiantly don't want Zen first.
 

Xatres

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Yeah, I was going to say Kafka's probably the best choice for first lynch (what with the lurking and all), then any of the three of us for the RB. I'm inclined to say RR (no offense), as I know I'm town and I do think Zen bussing Potato is unlikely, especially since he was the doc.

Really we should all reread each other and look for connections before deciding anything. The deadline's a long way off, so we have time for it.

And yes, Joey, you guys should definitely claim who was the masoner, sooner rather than later.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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It doesn't look like I'll have time tonight for hunting quotes or engaging in lengthy back and forths (work is kicking my butt), but I'll go ahead and put this out there:

It's entirely possible that Sokr is scum and Potassium is the traitor.

As far as Sokr being scum goes, you can check earlier posts for people making a case against him.

For Potassium, I see it this way...

1) He's been holding a firm town-read on Sokr the whole game, despite admitting to certain "confusing" parts of Sokr's play. Numerous other players have noted Sokr looking scummy, and Potassium has yet to justify his reasons for calling Sokr town.

2) I have pressed Potassium more than once to re-examine his read on Sokr and to read through my own post regarding Sokr's scumminess. The first time, he said he'd get around to it, but chastised me for even thinking it was important. The second time, he completely ignored my request and ran off to reread Scary. I've found dodging questions to slant more towards indy/traitor roles than outright scum roles in the past.

3) Scary claims, and Potassium's response is twofold. First, he urges no one to CC. As already pointed out, this is ridiculous. In a 2-scum game, pretty anyone would happily take a 1-to-1 trade. Second, he tries to swing discussion back towards FroMar or myself, except town sentiment is slowly moving away from FroMar, and he himself admitted that my last post was [expletive deleted] good and screwed up his read. Why return to me? Because his backup lynch (Scary) fell through.

4) Weak Meta-related stuff: Coming off a game where chatlogs/notes were used to clear and condemn players (FE:A), Potassium started posting notes in this game. Other people know Kantrip meta better than I do, but I don't recall him posting a single note in FE:A, and he was town there. You guys can let the guy who's been out of the loop for 2 years know whether or not this is even a valid point.

5) IF Potassium is the traitor, then he's been placed in a terrible position from the get go. He'd know Sokr is scum, and yet also know that both he and Sokr are expected to have reads on each other lickidy split. If he ever tried to bus Sokr, he'd be screwing himself more than usual thanks to his own traitor status. If his bus was successful, half the scumteam is gone. If his bus failed, Sokr would probably kill him (I didn't see anything about recruitment in the rules). For his and scum's own survival, he'd be forced to stick with a Sokr town read no matter what.

I think #5 fits the scenario we're seeing play out.

All that being said, I think Sokr is likely the play for toDay rather than Potassium. Sokr's been scummier in general, and his flip will let us know exactly what Potassium's play has been all about. Plus we have a myriad of other interactions to go on as Sokr's jumped in and out of the limelight over the past few days.
Xastrn delved into it deeper and tried to rationalize why Kantrip did what he did.

This is better on a Kantrip scum flip.
 

Xatres

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@Zen/RR/Whoever else is around: Can we discuss why the heck Rake died instead of Scary? Why in the world would scum leave us this valuable resource?
 

Xivii

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@Xatres: Rake's first post.

Vote: Kafka
I think he's probably the one. RB Ruy for safe measure. Still think Sokr is traitor.
 

Xatres

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Is that really enough to go on when you've got a sure thing in Scary?

... I guess it depends on if Rake makes a habit out of going mad with power every time he gets a killer PR.
 

Xatres

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In the middle of D1 (emphasis mine):

Kantrip is also town as ****. I was actually worried about him at first because his early game didn't seem to have a direction (early vote on Xat seemed useless, so was the vote on FM), but he really bombshelled later and I'

WL town. RR leans town.

Xat leans townie. Everything from the way he states that he doesn't want to bias his results, to the way that he pressured Scary does not strike me as fabricated at all. However with his recent post where he disclosed his intent over pressuring Scary I'm not too sure where he wants to go now. He simply stated that both Rake and WL had good points, which isn't really committing to anything. This is fine for the time being, but I'll like to see him decide on this read as well as develop other reads,

Will talk to Kantrip about tihs tomorrow.
Scumslip?

I don't think anyone called him on this EXCEPT Potassium, who may have been trying to cover for his scummate. Looking at the rest of Kafka's posts, he doesn't ever engage Potassium after this until Potassium scumslips himself with whole Scary CC thing.
 
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