Flavorless Mafia: Game Over. Who won?

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Soup dissection 101: Actually Questioning A Suspicious Slot Before Instantly Damning Them

@J

Moving on, I am gonna group my nulls into a huge pile over here. That would be a pile of Ri****, Nich, Kary, Ruy, and BW. BW has not made any posts so he is the nulliest of nulls. I would say I am leaning town on Nich, but that's just meta. When I was reading his case on Garg, I found myself agreeing to a great majority of it and it caused me to re-read the Ri**** vs. Garg debate. I had not really had a problem with Garg but reading that argument, there is a key difference between that argument and the Honk vs. IR debate. I feel this one holds a lot more like a TvS scenario. My first read through, I was a bit jaded into thinking that Ri**** was the scum-read out of the two because of his vote on me was god awful. I am curious as to how he came to the conclusion that I am not all bad when I had not posted at all during the time because it seemed a bit forced. On my second read-through of the argument, I was looking at it consciously and saw more newbie scum-tells from Garg. The last time I played with Garg he was incredibly translucent. I seemed to have liked a lot of his posts this game too, but in the end I think I was doing my D1 thing where I thought lumped him in with town-reads TBD and just pushed on.

Ri**** makes some actually really good points regarding Garg. His read's list is something that sets off incredibly loud alarm bells because it looks fabricated. It reminds me of Scary in FFT:2 mafia where he was catering to the reads of popular people and also coming in from a "re-read" but not really bringing any new information to the conversation and hopping on the easiest wagon at the time which was Honk. Honk was a very easy push during the time so I am currently analyzing it, however, there is a bit of me that wants something more concrete (like his flip) so I can finalize my opinions on slots. However, when questioned by Ri****, Garg continued to dig his hole deeper and deeper when he continued talking and it comes across more scummy rather than towny. He looks more like flailing scum trying to recover from being asked something he knows is faked rather than that of a town who honestly had genuine feelings.[/quote]

Your #477

Then my Garg push is truly just a way to look at the other wagon and move the pressure from me to him so I don't get lynched which is just the survivalistic part on my end because I thought I could recover after this lynch regardless of the flip. Now? I don't really think so.

Help me understand what you meant here in difference as to how you felt about Garg? Your #477 is the same post where you exclaimed that we should just lynch you and get it over with, but you're kind of admitting here yourself (unless im reading this wrong) that your whole push on Garg was fabricated and overblown?

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

More importantly, Garg was your second FoS right? Why'd he suddenly drop over Ryu in that instance? (This is around Page 13) I don't see what he possibly did for you to go ahead and think that just because maybe you were too tough on July, that the same went for Garg. That's basically what I'm getting here.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

As I'm reading around the 13-14 page bench, J holds to it that Garg was actually town and he had it wrong this whole time, I don't want to go into detail because that isn't what matters here, I'm mostly looking at Garg's reaction to this as mainly Garg held to the opinion so far that J wasn't worth lynching and was very safe with his read on him.

This makes me feel two ways about it:

1) J didn't want his partner to get lynched and tried to piggyback onto Kary.
2) J had a genuine town-read and just didn't want to lynch Garg.

I can't tell you J's intentions here but you have to believe one of the other, but the real point is coming down to what's likely. All in all, re-reading J doesn't make me feel better, but sometimes, yeah, townies play badly, so I wanted to give it another go. There's nothing in my head that can rework that I think Garg and J's way of handling each other was slimy, just downright terrible. The need to fluff up a point made on Garg and then to just suddenly back off when pulled into a corner doesn't sit right with me, because in that interaction with July, what made Garg less of a priority? The main feeling that I got from it was that J was trying to pair Garg and July together, because he even highlights points made such as July 'copy-pasting' Riddick's scum-list or something like that.

The second is just..it's too sketchy to me. It feels planned, way too calculated. I just don't think J expected for Garg to get the noose and wanted to try and make sure he didn't, because around that point, nobody really was claiming to lynch Garg too heavily. In that same light, however, he finally did start getting attention when July voted him, and you know, J coulda maybe hopped on there for some townie points, but didn't. He stuck to the garg read.

Tell me, what's more likely? J being unaware that his partner was getting lynched and setting himself up for failure, or J just having a rough day?

He sticks out like a sore thumb.

Kary: J
Honk:
Rid****ulous
Nicholas1024
Gheb_01: Badwolf
J: Kary, Gheb
BadWolf*
Gargaglione: Rid****ulous, Nicholas1024, July, FrozenMarsh751, Honk, Gorf, Gargalione

He had all the chance to bus his mate there, but he didn't. He was stubborn, maybe not for his own good, but that's the truth. I put this out there because I want people to discuss more about this idea, and more importantly, I noticed something else while I was looking through.

Look at that wagon. Does anyone truly believe that scum is not on there? That everyone there is town? I'd like a bit more discussion on Garg's wagon too while I'm at it.

I spent about a good 40 or so minutes looking through all this, please don't blow it off.

 

[rid****ulous]

It's pretty obvious where I stand on this, I pick option "1) J didn't want his partner to get lynched and tried to piggyback onto Kary." Hell, it almost worked, a Kary lynch was very real possibility yesterday.

Scum is on the Garg wagon. He hammered himself. Outside of that, the iffiest slot on there is Gorf. I'm not saying I have any strong reason to believe Gorf is definitely town, but he's pretty far down my list of slots that concern me.

 

[#HBC | J]

Too many things to answer at the current time, running in for my shift at work in like 20 minutes. Soup, is there anything I can quick-hit?

There is so much of me that just wants to be like "Yeah, I stick out like a sore-thumb, it's because I am not his mate" haha. Regardless, you said do I see Kary as scum, he is my third pick. He seems to be actively pushing certain things while also not actively pushing things. He always pops into thread when things seem to benefit him. I.E. When pressure of Garg/J popped up, he disappeared. Could Kary be connected to Garg, the possibility exists for me for this reason, Kary said he was all for the Garg lynch but look where his vote ended up yesterDay with Gheb. That's where i am drawing the connection of a scum-mate who is "Oh yeah, I would totally lynch my buddy" but not having the balls to do it and throw pressure onto a town slot>that. Why would Kary not just lynch Garg especially with it having more steam on it? Doesn't add up considering the logic around it.

I will just keep on saying that the answer is an indefinite #2 in terms of how you are wording things. As I continuously say, I have a terrible D1 and I was having a rough game because of the pressure that surmounted onto me based on a gimmick read and July scum-reading me so hard, so early. Further analysis, through my PoV, is stretching it to make me look like scum.

I will admit that my entire push on Garg was overblown and fabricated because he looked like an easy lynch I could sway away from my slot so I could survive the day and also protect my PR. Garg was just a read I was not going to cry over if he flipped town/scum at the time of that post because I was just looking for a way to live. The fact he flipped scum, although inherently seems condemning to my slot, does not make sense with me being scum. I can destroy that logic if that is the main reason why people are seeing me as scum>my D1 play at the current time. I mean, I can only speak for my actions and try to explain Garg's but that is just me trying to get into the psychology of why a scum-mate would connect himself to me in such a way.

I can probably pry Ridick's teeth off my ass too but that's gonna be the feat of getting a donkey to listen at this juncture. To be honest, I will be looking at trying to remove the rest of my wagon off of me and onto why a slot such as Dabuz should go toDay>me.


====

Ack, I'm going to be late to work now. Disregard my first line, I seriously will have to deal with things on a later date.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Look at that wagon. Does anyone truly believe that scum is not on there? That everyone there is town? I'd like a bit more discussion on Garg's wagon too while I'm at it.

I've also wondered about that because the wagon came about pretty quickly after it started to look like a Garg lynch wasn't happening at first. Though it begs the question who out of the bunch even qualifies as a potential scumbag. Right now, Ridic simply isn't part of even a highly extended lynchpool for me, July is dead and you are her mason partner. Garg is also dead so the only people on the wagon that could have bussed Garg are Nich, Fromarsh and Gorf in my book. But right now I think there's a good chance that fromarsh is town on account of various things that I don't feel the need to point out unless specifically asked for. I've felt pretty ambivalent about Gorf all game and still do but I definitely hold Ryu scumreading him in Gorf's favor. Which leaves Nich who has been read as town for most of the game but as I think back honestly hasn't done too much to deserve it other than backing up Ridic's push against Garg [which is the likelier position for a bus than Ridic's push has been].

So the only slots that even qualify for having possibily bussed Garg are Gorf and Nich, both of whom are largely null-reads. I wouldn't be too surprised if no bus happened at all here. Especially with Kary, J, Badwolf, Nabistan and Ryu all having been somewhere else on the final votecount, I wouldn't read too much into it.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

All thinks considered, J does need to die. The info we gain from his flip alone is probably more useful than his presence, if not his doc ability too.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Yea thanks for not caving to his doc claim guys we are SO still lynching the living hell outta him amirite?

 

[frozenmarsh751]

this should go without saying but obviously if you're the real doc DO NOT CC J

like this is a perfect scenario for scum to try to bait out a CC so yeah... don't be lame and dumb

 

[#HBC | J]

There won't be a CC, just saying.

 

[Fandangox]

I am caught up.

Not gonna make a large post. From reading I agree with everyone on J being scum, I do not believe that Doc claim, it reminds me a lot of Dabuz's Cop claim at the end of D1 in F&L2, just stinks of self preservation. It especially doesn't make sense considering J was just ready to give up:

I can't respond to July. I just...I've lost this debate, hard.

I'm sorry, I've dug myself way too far into the ground and I doubt I can submerge from this one without being lynched and I will just be a distraction slot for the rest of the game.

*sigh* Lynch me. My flip will gain information for town and help you guys win in the end.

This doc claim came out of nowhere and I just don't buy it.

But right now I think there's a good chance that fromarsh is town on account of various things that I don't feel the need to point out unless specifically asked for.

Could you point out these things please? Fromarsh didn't post much, and that big post he made where he called out everyone actually read very townie to me, but I'd still would like to see what you gotta say about the slot.

 

[ranmaru]

Votecount 2.4

frozenmarsh751: Dabuz
Gorf
Kary
Soup
Rid****ulous:
Nicholas1024
Gheb_01
J: Soup, Frozenmarsh751, Gorf, Rid****ulous
Dabuz: J
Nabe
Fandangox

Not voting:
Kary, Nicholas1024, Gheb, Nabe, Fandangox

Notes:

*= Currently being replaced
**= V/LA

With 11 players, it takes 6 votes to lynch
The deadline for Day 2 is April 27th, at 11:59 PM.

 

[rid****ulous]

@j
Twas joker posting. I was at the schoolhouse

 

[#HBC | Kary]

I want to post something sarcastic but I don't really have the energy. J's still full of bluster and bull****, and the claim feels way off, esp. after masons flipped. Second what Gheb posted (#767)and I think i'm done with toDay to be honest, holding out for Nabe to post something just seems like a waste of time. Gimme a flip and maybe Day 3 we can have some waggons that move rather than sit here wheels spinning.

 

[rid****ulous]

If you are done with today why withhold your vote, out of curiosity?

 

[#HBC | Kary]

Still L-2, right? I don't want to bm someone and end the day here if people are waiting on ****. If nothing happens in say 24 hours we can probably just call it but hey.

 

[Fandangox]

Also since @ #HBC | Gorf had doubts.

I just want point out that soup basically says I'm a ridiculous moron for thinking the things I think, but July is totally smart and awesome, and her reads are great. Ask July, our freaking reads, and the reasons for having them, are almost all the same. **** you soup.

I don't think this says anything about his alignment, I just think it's interesting to note the obvious bias in the way soup perceives July and I as individuals. He still reads us the same, but she's smart and I'm ridiculous. Not "rid****ulous", but "ridiculous". Man, I hate you so much now that I've noticed this.

In retrospect I think this is because Soup already had July as clear since they were Mason partners, so that's probably where that "bias" came from.

Note how July also tried to ask people to rethink the Honk wagon and also had Soup in her not to lynch list.

I’m convinced this is a case of frustrated, exasperated townie v. tunnelling, confident townie, and that the Honk wagon needs some serious reviewing and consideration for the people who jumped onto the easy wago because it was the best way to fake scumhunt.

Would Not Lynch:

Gorf

Gheb

Honk

Rid****

Nich

Ryu

Frozenmarsh.

Also @ Nicholas1024 What are your reads at the moment?

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Could you point out these things please? Fromarsh didn't post much, and that big post he made where he called out everyone actually read very townie to me, but I'd still would like to see what you gotta say about the slot.

Since you seem to agree with my read on him I see no reason why I should go into detail on it. In the vaguest of terms frozen has posted something toDay that I identify as a pretty clear town-tell for him. You really needn't know more than this.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I'm also disappointed that you seem to have nothing interesting to say. You got nothing to add other than the obvious? What about Gorf attacking your slot yesterDay?

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

I am caught up.

Not gonna make a large post. From reading I agree with everyone on J being scum, I do not believe that Doc claim, it reminds me a lot of Dabuz's Cop claim at the end of D1 in F&L2, just stinks of self preservation. It especially doesn't make sense considering J was just ready to give up:



This doc claim came out of nowhere and I just don't buy it.



Could you point out these things please? Fromarsh didn't post much, and that big post he made where he called out everyone actually read very townie to me, but I'd still would like to see what you gotta say about the slot.

Your insight. It's massive.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

My body is ready to end the Day right here and now. Nabe will continue to stall his catch up and it'll continue to be dreadfully null on his part. The lynch toMorrow will fall between the three replaced slots, so I'd prefer to have flips and stuffs to work with instead of painfully dragging out the Day. If any of my town reads feel like keeping the Day going, then sure let's do it. But I mean honestly aside from a Nabe post that'll likely either never come toDay or give anything significant, what are we waiting on?

 

[frozenmarsh751]

J dead yet?

moar votes plz, no need to drag this **** out forever

Since you seem to agree with my read on him I see no reason why I should go into detail on it. In the vaguest of terms frozen has posted something toDay that I identify as a pretty clear town-tell for him. You really needn't know more than this.

oh ghebby you're such a tease ;D

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I can see where people are coming from about ending D2 soon but I really don't wanna give Nabe an excuse to keep up this stalling. That slot needs to suffer.

 

[#HBC | J]

Welp time to go sign up for another game then. Peace everyone was fun playing even though I got lynched!

There's like no way out for me at this juncture so even with my claim, guess I have to die, but not gonna be upset haha.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

You forgot to tell us the name of sumbag #3.

 

[Nicholas1024]

Still catching up, but I'm fine with the J lynch. The claim alone seals it for me, someone that actually had such an important town role would never be willing to die on D1.

Beyond that, I've got FrozenMarsh, Soup, and Ridiculous as hard town reads(mainly due to lynching Garg), with Gorf/Gheb slightly leaning town (Their play has generally felt alright, but I haven't seen anything that seals the read for me either way.)

Dabuz, Nabe, Kary, and Fand are the slots I'm still looking into, they're all pretty much null at best.

I'll be back to actually look into said slots after class.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

I can see where people are coming from about ending D2 soon but I really don't wanna give Nabe an excuse to keep up this stalling. That slot needs to suffer.

I feel like it's overkill to keep the Day going though. I will personally have no problem lynching Nabe if he provides no content period, but with a planned lynch, why bother not just turn Day into Night? Three days (aka the Night phase) is plenty of time to type something up, especially with the time he's already had. I just wanna progress, and at this point keeping the Day going is starting to help scum more than help town.

Btw, food for thought since the Day IS still going: does anybody think that Nabeslot and J have a connection? Honestly, I feel like J's early treatment of the slot directly tells me they're not on the same team. Can Nabeslot be indy? Absolutely. But I don't think Jscum would let himself have that staggering difference in opinion on his scum mate. That's just asking to be put on blast by naysayers, and truth be told, a slot like Jakestan doesn't seem chainsaw worthy, especially at the time that the buddying occurred.

 

[Nicholas1024]

Alright, some thoughts as I read along.

-Red Ryu's posts remind me a lot of my D1 case against him in Megaman Unlimited mafia. The "questions but no followup" playstyle would fit a scum-Ryu, but it would ALSO fit a town-but-barely-active Ryu. Since he replaced out, I'm not going to be able to follow up on it, so I'm mostly going to take Fandangox's play on its own merits.

-If J flips scum, I feel pretty good about Kary being town. It has nothing to do with Kary's own play, but there's no reason for J to try and bus him towards the end of D1 when he could have just bussed Garg and instead chose to defend him.

-dabuz's opening post where he gives thoughts on the game seems pretty legitimate. Nothing particularly stands out about this, but it does seem to be general contribution.

-I think I agree with Soup that jakestan/J probably aren't both scum. While it is somewhat WIFOM, I don't particularly see scum-J making such a blatantly obvious connection to a scum buddy without any sort of pressure.

-I'm calling dabuz's "case" against Marshy null. It's clearly crap as far as pressure/finding scum goes, but I could definitely see it as a townie just being irritated at Marshy ignoring them.

-Fandangox's posts would be fine if the slot had been active and already caught up, but replacing into a slot that hadn't been contributing that much to begin with, it feels somewhat off.

-Overall, I honestly don't have much new to say about the null slots, simply because there isn't much to work with. What conclusions I can draw are mainly from interactions J had with said slots, or odd behavior from the original players that the replacements can't really answer anyway. To be honest, I really wish we had a couple of vig shots to burn here.

@ Fandangox
Is there anything of note you have reads-wise that hasn't already been said? I feel like I don't know where you stand beyond J-scum and the obvious town-reads.

@ #HBC | Nabe
I'm fully aware I'm not one to talk, but you do need to get that catch-up post in soon.

@ Dabuz
Assuming a J-scum flip, where would you look next? How about a J-town flip?

Overall, I'm fine with ending the day here. Yes, certain players should get in here and contribute, but there's quite a few connections to be made off of J's flip, and if we go through a night phase now, it gives the players in question time to catch up, AND no excuse if they aren't ready to post when D3 starts.

Vote: J

I believe that's L-1.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

How dare you credit soup with my insight.

 

[Dabuz]

@ Dabuz
Assuming a J-scum flip, where would you look next? How about a J-town flip?

Truthfully IDK. On scum flip i'd look at nulls (FM, Nabe, Fandango, Kary, Gheb) since based on connections no player really stands out to me as scummy but these are the slots that weren't strong pushers of any wagon IIRC. On town flip I'd just look at the wagons to compare who was on which wagon and focus on slots which stand out in that position.

Ready to end the day with a J lynch...inb4JSelfHammersToGetCardForHammeringScumIfIt'sInThisGame

 

[rid****ulous]

Pretty sure J disappeared. Go ahead and hammer imo

 

[Dabuz]

Sweet.

Vote: J

 

[rid****ulous]

@ ranmaru
Flip plz

 

[ranmaru]

FINAL Votecount 2.5

frozenmarsh751:
Gorf
Kary
Soup
Rid****ulous:
Nicholas1024
Gheb_01
J: Soup, Frozenmarsh751, Gorf, Rid****ulous, Nicholas1024, Dabuz
Dabuz: J
Nabe
Fandangox

Not voting:
Kary, Gheb, Nabe, Fandangox

Notes:

*= Currently being replaced
**= V/LA

With 11 players, it takes 6 votes to lynch
The deadline for Day 2 is April 27th, at 11:59 PM.

 

[#HBC | J]

God I hate being mafia with a passion.

Boo town, Go scum.

Going to go jump for joy that I am finally dead in this game.

 

[ranmaru]

J has been lynched!

He was a Mafia goon.

It is now Night 2. Send in night actions by April 24th, 11:59PM.

 

[ranmaru]

Soup, Town Mason, has been killed during the night!

It is now Day 3. Deadline is May 4th, at 11:59PM.

 

[ranmaru]

Votecount 3.0

frozenmarsh751
Gorf
Kary
Rid****ulous
Nicholas1024
Gheb_01
Dabuz
Nabe
Fandangox

Not voting:
Everyone.

Notes:
Important Game Links

*= Currently being replaced
**= V/LA

With 9 players, it takes 5 votes to lynch
The deadline for Day 3 is May 4th, at 11:59 PM.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

still not ready to post and won't do so tonight

 

[rid****ulous]

Fromar is pretty likely town off of Js flip. Dislike dabuz. Kary and nabe and fand need content out toDay.