Alright, now that I'm finally 100% caught up, let's get down to business.
This post actually wont be as long as I originally intended it to be. I had organized most of it prior to the end of D2 and was compiling the last little bits and pieces from the most recent posts just before twilight ended and didn't end up having enough time to get my post up. A lot of the stuff I had originally planned to post were connections I had drawn assuming a Zen scum flip, but now knowing he is town (that is, if Nich is to be trusted, though I'm pretty damn convinced he's legit at this point), all of that stuff went out the window.
Fortunately, there is still plenty of other stuff that's caught my eye that isn't contingent on ZenScum, so I'll proceed to fill you guys in on what I've been seeing during my perpetual catch up state.
But before I do that, for those of you who just want my straight up reads at this point, here's what I'm willing to share:
Confirmed Town:
Me (for me)
Nich (for me)
GLG (modconfirmed)
Scum:
X1
Ranmaru
Think could be scum but need more info:
OS (probably not scum if X1 is scum; depending on his explanation for X1 town and the info he has to share this could shift radically)
Want to think is town but isn't playing like a claimed town PR should be:
Raziek
So there, that's the TL:DR version. Now come the details.
Why X1 is scum
Won't
beat around the bush here, but I'm pretty much just piggybacking the **** out of
BeatStick's (lolcwutididthar) case here:
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12176829&postcount=1381
Deals that fundamentally contradict reads that were explicitly stated earlier? wtfamireading.jpg
I won't waste your time and space re-iterating what he said. Read the post, it's good. Only criticism I really have of it is he FoS's instead of votes at the end which I don't get at all because you can't get much scummier than contradicting your "100% town reads" in an attempt to strongman another lynch by cutting weird, baseless deals.
Beyond that though, as anyone who has read the thread is aware, X1's tirade against OS about "not pursuing/following up" on his reads is just S-Tier level ********. Again, won't waste your time and space restating what everyone else has already yelled at each other about for pages upon pages upon pages (trust me, I hated reading the 100+ posts about it and I'm sure none of you need the inactive ******* to beat the dead horse to look good). Point is, X1 places a burden of proof on OS to show that he "followed up" his case in a reasonable time period. OS provides metadata to show that it was only an alleged 15 hour gap. X1 says "no wai it was 96 hours" but doesn't provide data and links to show it. OS asks for the data. X1 tells him to prove that it
wasn't 96 hours in between. Yay fallacious burden of proof/borderline argument from ignorance. That just doesn't fly and the fact that he [X1] dragged it on for so long just seems like he's grasping at straws, which compounds with the ridiculous deal swindling from earlier that Beat pointed out.
This post kind of exemplifies the terribleness of X1's exchanges with others on the issue in a short and sweet manner:
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12189613&postcount=1466
Says **** like "false meta data" but doesn't provide contradicting evidence.
Says **** like "trying to make deals isn't scummy on its own" which is a blatant strawman. Obviously you have to consider intent when looking into a player's actions but the point is that A.) Your deals were
contradictory to your explicitly stated reads (which means you either lied about your reads earlier, or are being ingenuine about your willingness to lynch the people you said you would in the terms of your "deal" which is equally scummy) and thus scummy, and B.) Because of the terrible nature of your "deal" pitches, he clearly derived ingenuine intent from the posts.
But yeah, you get the point.
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12184114&postcount=1454
Also not sure where this came from. He goes form having an issue with simply not following up on scum reads to now having an issue with only pursuing one scum read? Moving the goal posts much? Just reeks of classic "well I'm not winning this argument so I'd better attack my target in another way so I don't lose the exchange" strategy.
Where did you even get the impression that he'd only pursue one scum read anyway? And how does focusing on one read temporarily and grilling said person somehow guarantee permanent tunneling on said target and the abandoning of all other scum reads? Oh wait, it doesn't and you're just making ugly logic leaps. =/
So yeah, that's the deal with X1.
Why Ranmaru is scum
RanmaruScum is pretty contingent on X1 v. OS being TvS or SvS, but it really doesn't matter which of the two (if not both, but I find that highly unlikely) is scum. Here's why:
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12190068&postcount=1480
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12190566&postcount=1506
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12191237&postcount=1533
I don't like these little side comments he keeps offering with regard to the X1/OS clash. He doesn't offer any significant stance on the issues at hand, and just tries to act like some sort of distant mediator of discussion. In fact, instead of offering his own stances on the issues, he even goes so far as to claim that the argument is "misleading" and that it might just simply be a "misunderstanding". Trying to distance yourself from the conflict and just look like the level headed, uninvolved townie much? These comments without any explanation for them whatsoever just reek of attempts to distance oneself from the debate incase one's partner bites the dust, but at the same time try and take some of the heat out of the debate in general in order to maybe prevent the focus of the town from being stuck on that conflict forever to give a partner some breathing room. Like he presents himself as if he has this TvT perception of the X1/OS debate but doesn't ever A.) Explain WHY he thinks that B.) Actually explicitly state that he thinks that or C.) Ask question that suggest that he
genuinely believes the exchange is TvT. Like, why would you as X1 the question in red in post 1506 if you
legitimately believed the exchange was probably TvT? It just isn't consistent and when I was reading these posts in order it really threw me for a loop because I couldn't conceive of a genuine thought process that would generate those posts.
Why OS can be scum:
Number one issue with OS is him blowing Dub's mention of a potential abductor earlier on in D2 out of proportion and arguing that his mention of the role suggested he was likely said role. Normally I wouldn't have a problem with this contention coming from OS, but what strikes me as odd is the fact that
I mentioned a potential abductor first, yet no such argument was made against me. Why exactly is that, OS? If you're going to attack someone on principle regarding "unprovoked mention of indy roles", not being consistent with that principle makes it look like you're selectively omitting things, or simply choosing your battles to avoid unwanted attention from certain players.
That's really the only major thing that caught my eye. In terms of the X1/OS exchange again, I don't see that exchange as TvT so an X1 town flip atm would move OS into almost def. scum, but his recent proclamation that X1 is town for whatever reason kind of throws this read out of wack. Will need to here more of those details to solidify my understanding of this exchange.
Other recent stuff
@ Red Ryu:
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12164703&postcount=1281
Alright, not so recent but what exactly do you mean by "Based on the mod post, I'm gonna say it triggered on death" in terms of Vult's role? How in the world did you reach that conclusion?
@ OS:
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12218101&postcount=1810
As I've mentioned this post intrigues me. Hoping for some elaboration on it soon since I assume my post is one of the ones you're waiting for before you do so.
@ Rajam:
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12218360&postcount=1815
Are you asking for whoever was roleblocked to claim? How do you know whether or not the scum switch RB targets? How did you know for sure that Raziek messaged GLG?
@ Cdubs:
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12218617&postcount=1818
4 man scumteam is a bit OP IMO with all this no flipping bull**** going on, but doesn't hurt to assume worst case.
As for my vote choices from that list, right now I'd go with Ranmaru. Depending on what OS says in his next few posts, it could become him over Ran though. Red Ryu I've had a null/leaning scum read on all game but other people have simply passed him in terms of scummyness and informational value as plays and subsequent flips, so he's my last choice but wouldn't vehemently oppose his lynch either.
@ X1:
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12219693&postcount=1824
Based on what you are saying here, what do you think was Luxor's alignment? Why do you think a vig would choose to hit Luxor N2 but not act D1?
And to wrap it all up,
Vote: X1
Man, it's good to be back. Questions, comments, concerns gogogo
