X1-12
Smash Champion
FYI raz, we don't know that in this game scum will be the bad guys from the game. Plus they can have safeclaims too (and will very likely do so in a xiivi game). I believe Zen will flip town, but not because of his claim
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Nich, FF, RR mainly, then Nabe, adumb and Raziek, but not that likely as the first threeRaj, if you get a sec. Who would you see in a scumteam with Ran/OS
@Ran: save that kinda stuff for after Zen flips at least
You should probably check the data, and make OS finally answer that question Nabe has asked him twice and I've asked him to answer at least once."Using false data, strawmanning, lies and intentional misrepresentation of my points?"
I have yet to check the data
I have no idea what strawmanning is
Lies and intentional misrepresentation could be an exaggeration depending if the time data is false or not.
I find it amusing you haven't considered "intent" when discussing me at all.
You're presenting (yet again) another bad argument.
"I can't be scum because you don't know why I'd do this if I were scum" doesn't work, X1.
Just checking updates while I reread, you'll get a post about you sometime tomorrow probably.
False statement OS. Every time I talk about how there's no townie reason to act as you did, thats talking about intent, plus I directly talk about intent in these posts.
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=12189613&highlight=intent#post12189613
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=12184114&highlight=intent#post12184114
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=12184042&highlight=intent#post12184042
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=12183643&highlight=intent#post12183643
Point noted. I'll check it further during night phase though, but as I said if Zen flips town, I'll also push for OS lynch toMorrow, and I will consider you town almost confirmed, and I'll be more willing to hear you and your reads and accompany your votes. (don't replace out -_-). I'll try to not be as hard-headed myself as I usually am when I hear about deals and "follow me" kind of statements, because I had a very bad experience with that kind of players in my very first mafia game (Chrono Trigger; I followed Omni blindly and gave him the game in a silver plate), and you can't intend that people follow your orders if you're not mod-confirmed town; specially on early days with so little info. Even if you're NKilled I'll push for OS lynch more than a Ran lynch (assuming Zen flips town, or indy). Again, consider staying in, we both know Zen will likely flip town so I'm willing to make a deal and get OS lynched toMorrowYou should probably check the data, and make OS finally answer that question Nabe has asked him twice and I've asked him to answer at least once.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man
This is just one example of the last point
I was going to bed, and Ran lynch wasn't happening. I felt my vote was of no use on Ran.Then why did you put me at L-1 when we still had time? That didn't seem like an I-just-want-to-lynch vote. You could have waited, yet you simply put me at l-1 and left.
By "looking at them" I mean that I will consider them possible scum.What do you mean by "look at"? You should be looking at everybody all the time. Have you simply been ignoring them?
Kirby King postgame thoughts on Nicholas1024 said:You're not a terrible player; you noted correctly that Gaston was not necessarily town even before alignment-switching shenanigans had been made public, and you had named Zen and GLG in a four-man scumteam by D2. Your real problem is that you're a massive tunneler, and that really hurts you even when you happen to be right. You lose credibility for not being willing to consider that you might be wrong, and since you are so often, in fact, wrong, no one ever has any reason to think you're right (even when you are). And to be honest, statistically speaking that reasoning probably works out in the long run--you got stuck on anyone you thought skimmed the thread and never let go; refuting doesn't help because historically you don't admit you're wrong anyway.
This post by EE[/URL]
Evil Eye postgame analysis on EP said:Instead you attached your intent analysis to the post as a fact (he was trying to protect cheez, therefore this post is protecting cheez!) and it makes your logic become circular and self-supporting. Mafia isn't a religious debate, so don't treat your intent analysis like the Bible. Read a post with a clear head and try to figure out what the person was trying to do. Then when you question them, you can mention intent analysis, you can mention what you THINK they were trying to do, but acting like you KNOW what they were doing and questioning them on that is faulty and dumb and not good play.
Based on your play so far I reckon there's a 50/50 chance you'll listen to what I'm saying now, but seriously regardless of anything else actually read the quotes, they will help you play better and understand the game better, they are quotes from some of the best players on this site.
@Nicholas1024: OS has been playing you all game and you fail to realise it too. Early on D1 he was pressing your buttons, he agrees with you in your thoughts on Zen/X1 team etc etc.(This is the post where you totally buy into it - You think he is town because his reads lined up with yours?) Earlier in like OS' first post (#156 I think?) OS says something about how its good you wont tunnel. He is pushing your buttons.
This post by you massively disappointed me, I try to convince you to even consider that you might be wrong, saying if you could tunnel less then you could be a great player like FF. This is shameful, you know FF hasn't made a real post in 5 days but because he is voting Zen then that means its OK to not consider that you could be wrong. Its annoying because after D1 I genuinely thought you had gotten over the tunnelling thing but after this relapse you are obviously not. Here is an exercise you can do, every time you are sure and you are really pushing for someone because they are scum, re-read their posts and try to prove yourself wrong. Yes, write out a case for why they are town and then afterwards legitimately compare the two, by listing the pros and cons of each if you need. If this does not work for you then I literally have no idea how you will get out of the mindset you have.@X1
You realize Frozenflame is voting Zen as well, right?
Why Ranmaru is scum
Normally at this point I'd just yak on and on about how good I am at reading newbies (*looks at GLG*) but I'm sure I'd get complained at by several people.
I think it was good that GLG was revived, now he can use his vote without fear of being hunted down (but now can be nk bait) but he should use his vote wisely, since he is mod confirmed town to us.Contradiction hereAlso, I think GLG being revived wasn't a smart idea (sorry GLG), but maybe it was if the reviver has limited choices or time. That I am not sure, but I give that person the benefit of the doubt.
If you look here there a massive "get out" clause in this, he is leaving the option open to vote GLG, despite the fact he says he wants Beat/Lux gone. He still leaves space to go back on what he said and make it not look like he is wrong or contradicting himself. This is a common scum tactic to avoid attention.OS: Well, I just didn't want a possible townie to die, simple as that. (I mean his claim seems believable) And I'd lynch Beatstick and Luxor over Ryu and GLG.
But a GLG lynch will help me read Zen and X1. (Nabe too)
Completely out of the blue followed by this reasoningYou know, the X1 v OS argument has been misleading. I'll vote Zen in five minutes.
Massive contradiction, he says here that Zen's point about Luxor/Beat should be ignored because town doesn't know if Zen is town, and then goes on to make a point about Zen which relies entirely on people knowing that Ranmaru is town.. This is possibly the worst reason to jump on a wagon I've seen in all my mafia games. He later justifies it like this:He didn't say anything about me after I responded to him.
He says he never claimed masons. He says that Luxor and Beat are ok following him because he knows he is town. But we don't know that. We don't know if that affects Beat's/Luxor's alignments.
He would wait until I was lynched later because he knows I'll flip town. He wants to wait until D3 to possibly save himself. That is scummy.What? He said If I flip town he would claim. Why not claim toDay?
Plus I was ok with lynching OS because of the interaction with you, but I'd rather lynch Zen.
Not like your reason for lynching OS is any better.This is not a townie making a mistake, this is scum asking terrible questions when trying to look town. There was a big furore over when I said OS ToDay, Ran toMorrow and there's no way he could have missed it@X1: So you are pursuing OS. Give 1-2 reasons why he should die today. If his lynch got derailed, who would you lynch then? Why?
@OS: Who are your scumpicks? 2-3 please, with brief explanations.
Will leave it there because I don't doubt Town will be able to lynch Ran on their own tbh.
OS-Ranmaru Connections
#1523 when I am on OS he suddenly starts talking about Raz, for seemingly no reason, he's not a viable lynch nor had he said anything of note recently. The wagon he has been talking all about how its likely that both X1 AND OS are scum and then suddenly switches to deciding to vote Zen. At this sort of point in time people are talking about how it is going to come down to Zen/OS and then Ranmaru decides to use the worst justification ever to jump on Zen's wagon. In case its not clear it looks heavily as though Ran is trying to save his scumbuddy and move the lynch towards Zen, his sudden change in stance from continually quesitoning me/OS and then talking about it being distracting is very telling. If I had to call it I would say OS has the more powerful PR, likely GF or something (questioning me/OS lots: 1, 2, 3, 4. then Saying the argument is distracting)
So who else is scum?
Rajam, likely. The post in #1265 he doesn't like Ran for voting towards a new wagon with just less than 30 hours left. Yet Rajam does exactly this towards a Ran lynch toDay (#1626, #1631 (both also 30 hours from deadline). He also has a contradiction here:Gonna check how much time left we had when you started to say this, but I'm most worried by the fact that you presented two options of which you immediatly discarded one because you saw him as town
And what do you think of Ranmaru?Gonna check how much time left we had when you started to say this, but I'm most worried by the fact that you presented two options of which you immediatly discarded one because you saw him as town@rajam what is what you are doing now different to what you called people out for doing end of D1. Your play right now is increasing the chance of a No Lynch AND what you just said about ran is very similar to OS saying 'its Nich or glg, but I think Nich is town'Dun't see how his defence here justifies anything he did. He did exactly what OS did but he called OS scum for it, who cares about the flip? He's pushing the lynch one way (away from OS mind) based purely on his own read, not taking into account the reads of others. Either its distancing or just a standalone scumtell from Raj, I don't mind.I started to accuse OS toDay after glg flipped town, and I guess that due to the fact that I've already accused ppl for almost getting a No Lynch, I guess no one will run the risk of falling into that category ever more again.
Rajam's connections
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12157930&postcount=1265
#1265 here looks like a distancing FoS: There's like literally no reason to FoS in that situation. He could have just easily said that he wont forget what OS did. It also looks like distancing away from Ran when he randomly switches back to OS for no given reason, his Ran vote basically did nothing.
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=12170573#post12170573 (Random switching back to OS)
Look at #1350: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=12173288&postcount=1350
Rajam says: "I've already voted OS this Day" when the question was why did he vote OS, why did he need to state that he had already voted OS? seems to really want everyone to know that he did or something.
This is pretty telling if one or two of those three flip scum, its like saying IF you think x and y are scum, don't include our scummate z in there too.. I don't think the way Rajam has pursued Ran is anything like how I went after OS. Keep it in mind mostly if Rajam ever flips scum. Its not that telling if the others do.lol if you're trying to see an scum team with me and OS at least don't include Ranmaru; it's like saying you and OS are both scum
TL;DR: Ran and OS are scum, Rajam I am less sure on but fits most likely I think. Ran and OS you will be fine if you follow blindly but acutally use your brains when pushing Rajam. Look at how he interacts with OS and whether he actually gets OS lynched or not. Raj wouldn't ever actually bus OS I don't think
As I write this I'm getting sick. Other reads in short unexplained form
Nabe is probably the last scum, but its not a strong read and it could easily be FF or maybe one of my nulls (see later). Seriously don't forget FF, get him replaced or atleast prodded or some ****.
Luxor/Beat are now null. I really don't remember them that much about them, luxor is the more townie of the two
RR is probably town because of a post Zen made about him. It went something like "how can you still think RR is scum after post #___" (if someone links or quotes this I'll love them) but I forgot to check the post. I dont doubt Zen's read on RR though plus I'm leaning town on him right now, mainly because as shown previously it looks more like he's being played while unaware rather than being a conscious part of a scumplan
Raz is probably town still, but shouldn't be given a free pass.
CDubs is probably town but potentially indy. unlikely though
Nich is town, same rationale as for RR, remember what I said to GLG on D1, you can't call Nich scum for tunnelling or for being wrong. I'm like 90% confident, so take it as a strong recommendation, not as gospel
If the abductor is lynched. Lynching Adum would not be a bad idea iirc he was scummyish D1. Get rid of him before Raz/Nich/RR/Luxor/Beat. Not that strong a read
imo this lynch order would win the game for town, probably before the end of this list.
OS
Ran
Rajam
Nabe
Cdubs
Adum (if released)
Beat
Luxor
Good cop targets (descending order):
Rajam
Nabe
FF
Beat
cop wants to start playing to figure out those players who no-one is sure about, ie the ones above.
@Raziek: Target GLG tonight
@All: Don't get GLG to direct Night actions. Yeah he's town but that doesn't mean he's right. Listen to his voice but listen to everyone else's too. /generic
I will talk to xiivi about whether I am replacing or not.
cdubs said:1. BREADCRUMB WAY TO VAGUE!!! I don't think anyone is capable of picking out this role from what you said. If you got NK'd, we learn nothing.
os said:You were trying to draw a NKill knowing that your role does absolutely nothing to someone that kills you, because all they could do is say "I can't vote" since you didn't post anything. Or just not vote. No one would be wise to it because... why would we?
cdubs said:2. So lets say 1 person targets you. What if that person is doctor? So what then. What the **** happens. You "OMG CLAIM NOW YOU TARGETED ME". No great way to separate scum from non scum, especially since if scum NK's you, again we learn nothing
OS said:Furthermore, you were acting incredibly scummy, toDay especially. Hell, even your reasoning doesn't make sense! Did you not assume that you would draw a DOC protect?
Because from what you're saying, it looks like you're trying to get the Doc to target you. Absolutely anyone that targets you can't vote. You openly claim to town "I can clear someone tomorrow" AND claim to know someone as 100% town AND don't deny the claim to masonry people obviously got from your posts... and you don't think that a Doc might protect you for that?
I said nothing about this, so this one's clean.cdubs said:3. What if there was a vote blocker in the game. Some one comes up vote blocked. And you say "OMG YOU TARGETED ME WHAT ARE YOU", well wouldn't your face be red later.
You should always be considering the possibility of someone being scum. What more will you do that you haven't done today?I was going to bed, and Ran lynch wasn't happening. I felt my vote was of no use on Ran.
I realize now that I could've waited with voting though. I'm sorry. Or well, I'm not sorry if you flip scum, but you get what I mean.
By "looking at them" I mean that I will consider them possible scum.
What do you think about it?I'd like to see Rajam's response to X1 actually.
@Rajam: Why do you think X1 would pair you up with me and OS? Is it fair for you? I'll post more, but I'm at school.
So you guys know, I'll be VLA from Saturday to around Tuesday. Pound5.
k.No I said I'd doubt OS for calling me town.
Not a contradiction. Os and I see similar things, but draw different conclusions.http://www.smashboards.com/showpost....postcount=1688
That post is a huge contradiction and is scummy as hell. he posted exactly what I said about Zen while simultaneously saying to lynch me for wanting Zen lynched.
Why did you ask him if already confirmed roles fit the flavor gahhh?Jill - Vanilla
Mist - Reviver