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Fire and Lightning Mafia - Game Over!!!

#HBC | Ryker

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I like Raz now as town. especially when compared to Soupa/Rajam/Kuzi's slot/Ryker.

Raz+Ryker investigation seems like it'll yield good results but I'm thinking maybe Ryker+Kuzi or Soupa to get a better read out of those slots that's a bit more concrete.

To answer your question Raz, I see more Gord/Kuzi however I could still see Kuzi with Kevin even moreso.

DH is confusing me.

:phone:
What about me+you? You agreed with me that it sounded like fun earlier.
 

Circus

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Raz's 1081 makes me feel better about him. However, the following still gives me the heebie jeebies.

Now that I think of it, is it worth our while for Circus to compare Ryker and I in the event he should survive? That gets you either two clears or an entire scumteam.
His willingness to say that comparing he and Ryker could give us an entire scumteam kills me. Why would town ever say that? TownRaziek would know that is not a possibility. He's also acting like he already knows that he and Ryker will come up as the same alignment.

Gorf/Kevin, Ryker/Raziek still very much a possibility in my mind. Gorf's flipout after I claimed backs up my belief that Kevin is his scum partner. I presented a very clear reason to believe that Kevin is the best possible lynch toDay, but he chose to vote Ryker instead and started getting pouty at me about why I had a "scumread" on him, like he hadn't already thrown himself to the lions. He didn't expect Kevin to be in this much danger right now, so now he's backpedaling.

Gorf/Kevin is likely to me, though I understand Raz's thoughts on Gorf/Kuz very well. This will be easier to examine with more flips.
 

#HBC | Dark Horse

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So what did you think about the posts I was making while I was there?
Depends on the post.

I liked posts 61 and 66 (which was your attack on kuz,) yet I also agree with gorf about how you thought that kevinM should die since he wasn't following you.

Also, you have "singled me out" for being hung up, yet what makes this different from someone like soup, who hasn actually not commented on the event yet.
 

Raziek

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Raz's 1081 makes me feel better about him. However, the following still gives me the heebie jeebies.

His willingness to say that comparing he and Ryker could give us an entire scumteam kills me. Why would town ever say that? TownRaziek would know that is not a possibility. He's also acting like he already knows that he and Ryker will come up as the same alignment.
It's called speaking to perspective, bro. Obviously I know I'm Town, but I'm not certain Ryker is. Nor do you guys know for sure that I'm Town.

I spoke only with the intent to convey that the result is extremely positive regardless of whether you believe Ryker and I are Town or scum. Because we've already been compared to Kevin it automatically prevents us from being whichever scumteam he flips.
 

#HBC | Ryker

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Depends on the post.

I liked posts 61 and 66 (which was your attack on kuz,) yet I also agree with gorf about how you thought that kevinM should die since he wasn't following you.

Also, you have "singled me out" for being hung up, yet what makes this different from someone like soup, who hasn actually not commented on the event yet.
Are you ********? What's with the "why me" attitude? You've asked for me to entertain your pea brain, and now I'm here.

I singled you out because you ARE hung up on something. Soup's just not here. Targeting him nets me nothing. Kevin is scum and Laundry is probably scum on announced V/LA until later today, I believe. Rajam is useless. You're the one that I get something out of bothering.

Okay, so you're uncomfortable about me because I thought that the scum should die. Interesting. If I am right about something and you are disagreeing with me, then that is scummy and hence, you will show up on my radar. If you will reexamine, then you will see that I have been convinced that I am correct for most of this game and have been acting off of it. Kevin was acting to save his scum partner which is, unfortunately, looking more and more like Gorf.

Gorf actually dragged a direct stance out of me and it came with a warning that it wasn't solid yet. Had I not been trying to get stances from other people at the time, I never would have voiced it and would've kept digging.

And you're saying that my lurking was malicious? Does that mean that you think I'm scum in this, Lost, and in Portal? I've been gone from all three. I had a tournament in there for a weekend in addition to being in three games at once and I'm notorious for taking an extended period of time to catch up.

How do you know that, in calling Gorf Fire mafia, I wasn't town needing something to refer to the separate groups and guessing rather than labeling them something stupid?

So tell me, Dork Horse, what is it about my play that has made what should be a null read into a scum one?
 

#HBC | J

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Hmmm so my hunch was right about you this game with regards to you read on me.

Ryker, tell me why you are having this conversation with DH.

:phone:
 

#HBC | J

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Well cool off then and come back because the conversation doesn't really seem relevant to determining alignment and looks more distracting.

Not obvious, but I feel it's gonna get interesting. ;P

:phone:
 

#HBC | ZoZo

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At the recent Soupa suspicion:
Posts like this
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=13795021&postcount=583
and this
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=13795051&postcount=589

and a post like this
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=13795098&postcount=594

makes me think it'd be weird if he was teamed with KeviM combining it with his previous play.
I still stand by this. He looks town to me, pretty darn sure.
 

#HBC | Ryker

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Really now? And here I was thinking I was directly addressing the concerns of another player in an attempt to help him discern alignment. I guess you're right J and I should start ignoring him.
 

#HBC | J

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It seemed more like you were attacking him instead of adrressing his concerns.

So what have you gained of DH based on said convo w.r.t his alignment?
 

#HBC | J

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Well not really suspicion but he gets left over after PoE scumhunting. I disagree with him being scum.
Well let me clarify a few things for me and see if you get where it's coming from.

He is more likely to be scum than DH/Raz. (leaning town)
He is on the same level as Rajam possibly. (nulls)
He is less likely to be scum than Ryker/WL. (leaning scum)

That's where he gets left in my PoE.
 

#HBC | Ryker

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It seemed more like you were attacking him instead of adrressing his concerns.

So what have you gained of DH based on said convo w.r.t his alignment?
Nothing at all. It's not the point of the conversation.

I'm not attacking his alignment. I'm attacking his IQ.
 

#HBC | Ryker

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Well let me clarify a few things for me and see if you get where it's coming from.

He is more likely to be scum than DH/Raz. (leaning town)
He is on the same level as Rajam possibly. (nulls)
He is less likely to be scum than Ryker/WL. (leaning scum)

That's where he gets left in my PoE.
When did you get that stance on Laundry?
 

#HBC | J

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No, I haven't?

If you look at my posts, I don't really mention Kuzi's slot simply because my one note I'm at at the current time is that one of you or him is scum. I have also been more focused on KevinM/Circus/Yourself.
 

Rajam

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Up to post #1080. Will finish to catch up during morning.

---

Got to the part where Circus claims comp cop. No cclaim from me. KevM needs to die toDay. Comp cop results, KevM's behavior D1+D2, and the several cases against him support this, and based on how inactive he's been recently I'd say than that strongly indicates the guy basically surrendered.

Now, an analysis with the three scenarios:

1.- KevM town: Although the less probable scenario, it is also the best scenario imo. With Gorf Fire-Mafia dead, and Ryker+Raziek pinned scum, toNight will be interesting: At that point one scum team has already lost. Either one of Ryker/Raziek is Gorf's partner, or both are Lightning. The other team, the one still with chances of winning, will want Circus dead asap, but the other team, already pinned and defeated, doesn't have any motivation to incap Circus unless they want to screw town. If that happens (Circus killed), still two scum are confirmed, it will take more time, but with only one more scum to be found, the chances of victory for town are high. If Circus survives the Night, either clearing two more players or detecting the remaining scum, chances of victory for town are super close to 100%.

Reads:
Other than Ryker and Ryker confirmed scum, I'd look into Soup and J. Soup is a null and I didn't like the interchange Gorf/J with J talking a lot with a scum player (¿?). They both fit with these three players, so it doesn't really matter who is left alone. The paranoia effect will probably put kuz high there too if both Ryker and Raz flip Lightning but I'll still look on Soup and J first.

2.- KevM Fire-Mafia: I think this scenario has the highest chances of being the scenario will see, mostly based on Gorf's reads on this quote:


1. th3kuzinator- I knew he was town when D1 started and I saw he was incap'd alongside Hipster. I mean unless he's on the other scum team and they're ballsy enough to incap one of their own, let alone KUZ (hint: they're not), then Kuz is obvtown to me, and he's been obvtown all game.

2. brosuke- I honestly thought you very well may have been scum at the beginning of the game due to the fact that you were being very closed and intentionally anti-town it seemed, and when you addressed the issues I had with you, from there on afterward your read just slowly shifted from scum to town. I kept a scum read because, welp, I'm thickheaded, and at the end of D1 I was thinking maybe scum, probz town, but his play can be incriminating, let's see what others think... Hence, the capping.

3. Raziek- It's as if he's an eco friendly maniac and Ryker's a tree. His insistence on not even considering Ryker as a scummy started to rub me the wrong way, and that progressed, and then yesterday I started thinking "Welp, why would a scummate of Ryker be so stupid as to voice something like that?" And then I allowed myself to think Circuscum. I'd say scum with Ryker after Circuscum, but it's doubtful that Circus ISN'T scum.

4. Ryker- I thought he was town. And when I saw him attack Kuz, I knew townKuz would bite back, so I decided to take the side that I KNEW was town, and call out Ryker's play, which was a mistake. So after he pleads his oh-so-tunneling case on me and Kuz, he fades into the abyss. Yes there ARE mobile phones wherever you went V/LA, Ryker, you did have opportunities to post and at least try to keep up in thread, so that's null and void. Actually, on December 7th, at 6:16, I voiced suspicion of Rykerscum to my partner in our QT, basically saying that he's yet to do much of anything. Which, in essence, is true. But I chose to keep a town read on him in thread in order to not look flailing and so I wouldn't have to get into that. But Kuz' case both helped my read, and helped me ease into Rykerscum. And then I claimed mafia in order to let the chains go and pioneer this Ryker lynch.

Let's think capping speculation (don't discount this as WIFOM people, I'm claimed mafia and have a fair understanding of the capping thought process): Let's assume Ryker's lightning for a second. He goes ahead and caps Kuz N0 because he is, easily, the biggest threat to scumRyker this game has to offer (except, now, me :troll:). And of course he expects the other scum team to have the same thought process. But NOPE! We cap Hipster and the game commences. Who does scumRyker go after? His cap choice. And somebody who is totes scum to him (me). His arrogance (we all know him so this is a valid argument) leads him to believe he can get the incap on Kuz, but alas, his V/LA leads that to no avail. His mind is set on me and Kuz being scum, correct? This IS Ryker after all. So he does the smart thing and caps the scummy that DIDN'T escape incapping yesterDay, me, and his arrogance probably leads him to believe he can uphold a Kuz lynch + a Gorf incapping toDay. Why? For total NK control, which is a topic me and my scummy discussed prior to toDay's starting.

5. JO_OEY J- Not gonna lie, didn't have much of a read on him when he was in the game. I was leaning town, but really he didn't do much and it was kinda apparent. And then J came into the game and was just obvtown to me, and knowing that J is a smart *** player (OOC: Dude take nothing I've ever said in the past personal, you're DAMN good at this game, and personally I think I've done some growing up during my DGames hiatus, and one of the things I'm going to stop doing is totally disregarding you as a player. As a person, you're a silly head ;), but you've def. had a shizton of respect from me as a player for a while. And don't forget it.), I knew he'd be a big help in lynching Ryker if he just saw it the same way I do. Oh, and if it wasn't obvious, I'm going to need to make sure you can take the Circus lynch toMorrow after I die.

6. Gordito- Not gonna lie, I thought he was town for a good while there, and he seemed trustworthy. But then he claimed mafia and I was like WHAAAAAAAAAAA? But he's a bro.

7. KevinM- I still don't see the argument against Kevscum. KevinM I saw as, like, TOTALLY dispensable and useless yesterDay, but I still don't see why scum would do some of the shiz that he did, like calling attention to some of the things he did (ex: his intro post. I'm still not sold on why a scummy would decide to bring that up as his intro post). But his play has been bad, and I'm fine saying that he may be scum with Ryker after Circus and Raziek. He's been doing a bit better toDay, but nothing to make me fight to keep em alive if you go through with a KevM lynch.

8. Hipster Samurai (Sworddancer/Gheb_01)- Dead and gone.

9. July- Dead... and... Gone.

10. Rajam- RAJAM IF YOU'RE READING THIS, SCREW CATCHING UP, YOU NEED TO BE CURRENT. His lack of being able to catch up is such a hinderance to him, but I see no scum in any of his play. Not much to say here because he's not really here... But yea.

11. Circus- I was getting scum vibes from em when he was giving empty and generic stances, and when he was being lack luster, but I was feeling really weird calling em scum with Ryker cuz Ryker was voicing suspicion of em, but after I gave it some decent thought, his suspicion has been pretty empty, and there isn't much to back it up. His scum picks are me (claimed mafia), Kuz (confirmed town (to me)), KevM (the popular choice), and Circus which is kinda out of nowhere compared to KevM. And then I remembered: Ryker believes scummates are meant to be bussed :cool:

12. Dark_Horse- He's dripping town from his sweat pores, and really has since the beginning of the game. Sure, he's been wrong about a fair amount of things, but it's nothing empty or scummy in the wrongness.

13. Soupamario- Never been able to read em, if I had to go one way or the other I'd say town but idk ._.
The KevinM read reeks to distancing

We also know Fire incapped Hipster N0 and Lightning incapped kuz. My bet is that KevM went after Hipster, based on meta stuff (KevM and Gheb have been playing here for ages and I suppose they have high respect on each other as good mafia players). N1 Brosuke and Gorf uncapped, and based on KevM's push on Brosuke D1, it also strengthens my bet on KevM as Fire. Gorf was also on Brosuke D1 so Brosuke being incapped could also point towards a strong agreement of Gorf and KevM picking him.

Reads:
In this scenario Circus is going to die toNight. kuz/Washed will be town-confirmed though: The chance of kuz being lightning and pulling a gambit is very unlikely, for two reasons mostly: I support what Circus said D1 about scum incapping N1 based on reputation; kuz has a strong reputation here in DGames so he could've killed himself with that gambit, and also, with a comp cop confirmed in the game, that gambit could've been ruined easily, specially again because due to kuz reputation he is N0/N1 likely target. kuz town. Lighting is among Ryker, J, Soupamario, Raziek, Brosuke, in that order. Again, Ryker is a no brainer; didn't like J's interaction with Gorf... talking with scum =/. Soup is super null, Raziek is also null, and Brosuke is also there if by discard process we still haven't found all scum at that point. With kuz confirmed town, his read on DH from the quicktopic (the one based on DH not receiving his role on time) holds more merit, but I think it still holds merit regardless of kuz' alignment.

3.- KevinM Lightning: I think this is the case which provides the lesser information for future; no conclusions for Ryker and Raziek, kuz won't be town-confirmed, and probably Circus is still gonna die unless some scum get greedy trying to kill the opposing scum via incap. This scenario is somewhat good if Circus survives, but if he doesn't I think this scenario is worse than Kevin-Fire-Mafia 'cause we won't have a town clear on kuz

In this scenario also is where we must analyze Gorf's motivations for claiming scum the most. He supposedly did that to get Ryker lynched after seeing himself in a situation in which Gorf wasn't gonna survive the incap toDay, but he didn't bring any new info onto the table; just things we all saw earlier. This kind of gambits are oriented to do some super-high-risk, super-high-reward play, but with the comp cop still unknown at the time Gorf claimed, this gambit could've been ruined easily. mmmm this is all getting quite wifomy and confusing so I'll stop now and I'll be back onto continuing analyzing this only if KevM in fact flips Lightning.

Reads
I'll probably just ignore all the wifom caused by Gorf's claim, and I'd still push on Ryker, followed by J (for the same reasons I explained in the other scenarios. He also inherited Dooms' role which was very scummy D1), Soup and Raziek. Will put an eye on Washed but still even in this case I wouldn't put him high in the scum list. Brosuke comes next and finally DH is still town lol


1. th3kuzinator
2. brosuke
3. Raziek
4. Ryker
5. JO_OEY J
6. Gordito
7. KevinM
8. Hipster Samurai (Sworddancer/Gheb_01)
9. July

10. Rajam
11. Circus - Town Comparison Cop, Un CC'd
12. Dark_Horse
13. Soupamario

If Kevin flips Fire we're looking for two Lightning. If Kevin flips Lightning, One Fire, One Lightning.

If he's Fire, then Gord/Ryker gambit is out, I would be looking at Kuz/Laundry and either Rajam or Soup.

If he's Lightning, then I'd be looking at Ryker, Kuz/Laundry, Rajam, Soup.

I regret that I can't be more specific but Rajam and Soup are still null to me and are effectively there by PoE.
This list makes no sense in one part: Why isn't KevM at the same degree of scumness as Gorf, when the comp cop said him and you are different alignment?

Also, not linking how wishy-washy you're being about Ryker: one post you say he is town, then possible scum... if you weren't sure, why not call him null in the 1st place, in that pseudo-string of posts you made in page 27 (40ppp)? town-but-possibly-scum is the same thing as not saying anything, and hence serves no purpose

---

I had more quotes but with Circus claim + his results they are useless. My reads are already exposed above, based also on each scenario, and yeah KevM needs to die toDay along with Gorf. I also wanted to examine a little more Gorf's motivations for claiming scum, but I'll go into that in more detail only if KevM flips something different than Fire-Mafia. Once Washed and Soupamario post and say whatever they have to say, I'll move my vote onto KevinM.

unvote
 

Rajam

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^ Some typos there but I think the points are clear. Where it says "Ryker and Ryker", should say "Ryker and Raziek". In the part that says "I support what Circus said D1 about scum incapping N1 based on reputation", it should say N0 instead of N1.
 

Rajam

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Ninja'd

Hey Rajam I have a question for ya.

How is talking with Gorf after he claimed mafia scummy?
Because claimed-confirmed scum have no reason to tell the truth, so ALL of Gorf posts should be read with utmost care. The more you talk to Gorf, the more Gorf posts, and hence it's more chances that we're reading something that could lead to misdirection.
 

#HBC | J

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True enough I guess but that's a very rigid way to look at it.

Well because of talking to him from both me/Xonar we acquired a reads list from him that people seem to be using as ammo for the Gorf/KevinM grouping instead of past behavior.

I do get your opinion though.
 

Rajam

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^ Some typos there but I think the points are clear. Where it says "Ryker and Ryker", should say "Ryker and Raziek". In the part that says "I support what Circus said D1 about scum incapping N1 based on reputation", it should say N0 instead of N1.
...and where it says "linking", should say "liking" -_-
 

#HBC | Dark Horse

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I singled you out because you ARE hung up on something. Soup's just not here. Targeting him nets me nothing. Kevin is scum and Laundry is probably scum on announced V/LA until later today, I believe. Rajam is useless. You're the one that I get something out of bothering.
touche, touche

Okay, so you're uncomfortable about me because I thought that the scum should die. Interesting. If I am right about something and you are disagreeing with me, then that is scummy and hence, you will show up on my radar. If you will reexamine, then you will see that I have been convinced that I am correct for most of this game and have been acting off of it. Kevin was acting to save his scum partner which is, unfortunately, looking more and more like Gorf.
You're nitpicking

I was uncomfortable with how it was because you were disagreeing.

Gorf actually dragged a direct stance out of me and it came with a warning that it wasn't solid yet. Had I not been trying to get stances from other people at the time, I never would have voiced it and would've kept digging.
SO what had you hoped to see by using that stance?
And you're saying that my lurking was malicious? Does that mean that you think I'm scum in this, Lost, and in Portal? I've been gone from all three. I had a tournament in there for a weekend in addition to being in three games at once and I'm notorious for taking an extended period of time to catch up
.

And now you're using self-meta.

How do you know that, in calling Gorf Fire mafia, I wasn't town needing something to refer to the separate groups and guessing rather than labeling them something stupid?
And what makes it different from just calling them a scumteam? Why do you need it to label it as a scumteam.

Why let this drag on? I'm not getting anything out of it, it doesn't seem like your getting anything out of it, and my read might be completely wrong if KevinM flips scum.
 

Raziek

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This list makes no sense in one part: Why isn't KevM at the same degree of scumness as Gorf, when the comp cop said him and you are different alignment?

I colored them differently not to indicate a difference in alignment, but just to indicate for myself that Gorf claimed Fire (Red) and Kevin we're unsure on. (Red + Yellow/Lightning = Orange).
Also, not linking how wishy-washy you're being about Ryker: one post you say he is town, then possible scum... if you weren't sure, why not call him null in the 1st place, in that pseudo-string of posts you made in page 27 (40ppp)? town-but-possibly-scum is the same thing as not saying anything, and hence serves no purpose
Because I was more sure he was Town before people made me start questioning my reads. I said that directly a few posts ago.
 

Raziek

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Err, sorry not to indicate a difference in DEGREE of scuminess, but rather to indicate that the scumteam Kevin is on is unsure. I worded that badly.
 

Rajam

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Fully caught up. Nothing more to say really; all things I think are already in the big post of mine above.
Also, this is getting stale. At this point I'm leaning on Gorf and KevM being partners, since after Circus' claim they never came back; they basically gave up. Soupamario will never post, we'll have to wait on kuz/Washed replacement, and nothing is going to change since both Gorf and KevinM will die toDay. I think we should just end the Day. If Red Ryu makes the next Day arrive after chrismas, both Soup and the replacement should have more than enough time to catch up, and say whatever they have to say on D3 if they're still here.

vote: KevinM
 

#HBC | Gorf

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I'm starting to think more and more Raz + Ryker. Look at how shakey Raziek is when it comes to giving a read on Ryker. He's painting too many scenarios to back too many things up, and he has NEVER given reason to his town-based-on-play read for Ryker. Ryker's play has been totally balls as well. Notice that his little schpeel with Dork Horse ISN'T CONTENT GUYS, HE'S JUST BEING (well I thought it was kinda funny the way he handled it but nonetheless) EVASIVE OF ANYTHING HIM SCUM RELEVANT.

Unvote Vote KevM

He's my partner. I thought it'd be oblivious by the way I've been trolling this shiz up and down, but now that both Fire is uncovered, I think it's obvious that all of my reads are legitimate at this point aside from anything I've said about KevM. EVERYTHING. "But what about the fact that he's scum?" ICE IS NOT ON MY TEAM. TERMINATE ICE. TERMINATE RYKER. That is all.
 

#HBC | J

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Well thank you for telling us that info Gord. Two out of four down.

I'm probably gonna be looking into Kuzi's slot and Ryker's moreso toMorrow.
 
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