Etrian Nomination Mafia - Endgame: Until the Day the Adventurers Rise Again

[#HBC | Nabe]

Vote: Red Ruy

 

[Moydow]

Vote: Red Ruy

wow, thanks for completely invalidating my last post, do you know how long it took to count all those votes?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Time for a Ruy hot take when I got a chance.

 

[Kantrip]

Fell asleep. Ryker's disconnect conclusions match mine and his analysis seems solid.

Ryker=/=Laundry
Ryker=/=Z25
Ryker=/=Ryu
Z25=/=Joey
Ryu=/=Nabe
Ryu=/=disfunk

#HBC | Laundry - you+nabe+disfunk is definitely a plausible team but I think it's just as risky to nominate 0 scum this phase and bank on a mislynch toMorrow, perhaps even riskier. Scum is likely in the pool, confident they can survive toDay and have a LyLo mislynch lined up. I'm not gonna bank on that though and I wanna lynch outside the pool toMorrow. Who is your preferred lynch outside toDay's nominees?

#HBC | Red Ryu - Why the concern with my read on you? I do appreciate the increase in content and I like your consideration of Joey upon seeing Z25 in the pool, I'll give you that.

 

[Disfunkshunal]

Disfunk's unvote reasoning was 'to avoid a tie', and then they said, "Why Soup, Ryu? That could have made a tie!" which suggests that somehow a tie between me and Soup was necessary to avoid at all costs.

"Why Soup, Ryu? That gives Soup a chance to quick lynch"
"I'm unvoting Nabe so that Soup doesn't tie up the votes"

Being the person in the spotlight and given his performance yesterday, Soup was unpredictable. I wanted to ensure a natural, well-considered end to the day and so, I removed Soup's ability to interfere with that. My reasons for not pushing your lynch harder are the same as the ones I stated before your wagon started -- lack of a case. I dislike your slot's inactivity. Like a lot. You haven't been an asset to the town and given what I know of the other players, I can very easily see you flipping scum. You mentioned that Ryu has always been against your inactivity. D1, I wasn't in the game, D2, you weren't in the lynch pool, D3 was the best opportunity to voice my concern and I did.

That all said, Joey made a very good point. I liked what I gained from you flipping scum but I didn't entertain the idea of Soup flipping town for very long. When I did, I realized that the information gained from that was worth putting you on the back burner. Had Ryu not voted Soup, I would have during the final ten minutes of the day.

 

[Disfunkshunal]

Disfunk is either scum who thinks he can get a town lynch today into a town lynch tomorrow (probably lynching townRuy today into a townNabe or a flip to Z25/Joey) or town who scumNabe is trying to promote for the final lynch tomorrow.

If we went with my plan, which is to focus on using the next two phases to test a pair we're sure is not scum together, I would commit to those lynches 100%. I do believe that Nabe is scum but if we collectively, or mostly collectively, decided that either Z25 or Kantrip were scum. I would agree to test Z25 today and Kantrip tomorrow, despite wanting Nabe more. Even if I was included in one of the pairings.

That said, I feel confident that both Kantrip and Z25 are town.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

#HBC | Laundry #HBC | Laundry - you+nabe+disfunk is definitely a plausible team but I think it's just as risky to nominate 0 scum this phase and bank on a mislynch toMorrow, perhaps even riskier. Scum is likely in the pool, confident they can survive toDay and have a LyLo mislynch lined up. I'm not gonna bank on that though and I wanna lynch outside the pool toMorrow. Who is your preferred lynch outside toDay's nominees?

God I have no confidence in anything right now. Gun to my head says risk the game on Nabe's alignment but I have no strong feeling that he'll flip either way.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Anyway I have 35 pages of **** to read. I'm here all night, ask me questions while reading.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

#HBC | Laundry #HBC | Laundry - you+nabe+disfunk is definitely a plausible team but I think it's just as risky to nominate 0 scum this phase and bank on a mislynch toMorrow, perhaps even riskier. Scum is likely in the pool, confident they can survive toDay and have a LyLo mislynch lined up. I'm not gonna bank on that though and I wanna lynch outside the pool toMorrow. Who is your preferred lynch outside toDay's nominees?

Also wanted to add that I think the reverse is true: I think you+Funko+Nabe is a plausible team but it's a hella specific scenario and I think there's little reason to bank on that. I'd have to be wrong on both you and Funko and that you're banking the game on lynching either myself or Z tomorrow or slowly getting bodied for it.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

#HBC | Ryker Stop playing Arkham Horror and come have your long conversation with me.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Skim the scum from the soup and there will be more scum, because soup is scum.


strawman


Mysterious sheeping of Laundry a minute after Laundry votes for Ryker. It has to have been planned through Day talk.

Vote: Soup

You know what else is scummy? Dirty Laundry. If I had to guess at the third scum, I'd say Fire, for wearing a Red Dead avatar to appeal to the mainstream (AtM).

It's strangely coincidental that Nabe's EoD wagon choices appeared here in an RVS-ish vote.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

If I were to try and narrow down suspects right now. I suppose there’s only two I can consider atm are pokechu for such odd posts that seem attention based. Which can go either way with pokechu so I don’t know. But they are worth noting none the less imo.

The other is maybe third for kickstarting the rvs on Ryker, but again that could go either way. But mafia being one of the others to follow suit wouldn’t shock me

I still dislike this post. Why vote on the same wagon started by a guy you find scummy? Why is it scummy for him to start an RVS wagon? Feels like jank ass reads thrown up because some guy put the spotlight on you, especially since you leave yourself the out of "mafia being one of the others to follow suit".

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

It’s not early now and I already said. It’s very clear people are not being active and that these votes aren’t changing. I’ve played enough games here to know that’s exactly where this usually goes day one. And when the only eay to win is by eliminations. We need to to lynch someone even if it ends up being a mislynch because we won’t get anywhere otherwise. Plus with no one discussing things we can’t establish any good reason to choose someone over another.

And I stated that someone bandwagoning the Ryker vote would be likely too for scum. In most cases scum will start bandwagons and attempt to avoid suspicions or they will join them to also attempt this. The most common scenario I’ve seen is mafia leading a vote and having another mafia join that bus, because it delays suspicions on the one that joined, at least for a little while.

It is pretty likely if you ask me that we are seeing one of these play out. I’m also gonna bet one of the scum is inactive.

Actually looking back at it, I find it interesting shishoe isn’t too active today. He loves this series but hasn’t contributed much. It’s only day one so of course some people will be inactive but this is worth considering going forward

Apparently I just need to read further down. This post answers both of the previous questions. I think he was expecting a typical NZoner game and didn't realize what DGamers generally keep in store.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Decent for now. I think perhaps that could change over the course of the game because I initially wasn't too impressed by his content, but then I realized that I haven't really been impressed by most people as they're simply not here to be judged. I don't know if scum makes themselves so transparent without any pressure to post yknow?

I want to highlight this post because I do think it makes a point. Up until I entered the game, only three slots were posting: Soup (flipped town), Poke (flipped town), and Z, with a Joey post thrown in there questioning Z. It doesn't completely absolve Z but it's points in his favor as I doubt scum were posting at all during this dead period. Why encourage an active town?

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

#HBC | Ryker Stop playing Arkham Horror and come have your long conversation with me.

**** you. I was showing Joey how to die a horrible cult related death, but I'm here now. Reading.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

At a restaurant. Messy/no quotes mobile post.

Not a fan of Z's logic with jumping on Ryker. Definitely not feeling the "this is the usual might as well push it along" thing. We have new players (to you all). One of us is busy with fgc stuff, but don't assume we're gonna just go with a rvs wagon to lynch a rando.

Rant aside, actual read is kind of mixed. I get what Soup/Poke are saying, but the problem for me is that unless I missed any swap, he's sticking with that logic and staying on the wagon. The initial action is something I can see a townie doing, but staying on it when we're actively posting now with 22 hours left is pretty sketchy. Defaulting to an RVS lynch because you expect it to be the end result regardless does not sit well with me.

Vote: Z25

More when I get home in like an hour or two.

I liked this post but in hindsight I can see the logical disconnect.

Disfunkshunal Is it typical in NZoner meta for RVS wagons to go to deadline?

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Man I just realized I've read the bulk of Fire posts in this game and I still don't remember anything about them lmao

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

I want to highlight this post because I do think it makes a point. Up until I entered the game, only three slots were posting: Soup (flipped town), Poke (flipped town), and Z, with a Joey post thrown in there questioning Z. It doesn't completely absolve Z but it's points in his favor as I doubt scum were posting at all during this dead period. Why encourage an active town?

This is weak sauce, like really weak. It's Day 1. People that want to play are posting, regardless of alignment. No one assumes a game will be dead at the top and makes a surgical move to avoid posting.

How do you reconcile this observation with Z's insistence that someone who's posting has to be scum because scum wants someone who is active within town's decision-making.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Do me a favor. Cut the filler. I don't want every thought off the top of your head in the thread right now. I want you to tell me what you find that is compelling.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

In fact, get your head out of the reread for now.

Talk to me about the current state of the thread. Talk to me about Nabe's analysis of the wagon on him. Talk to me about your read on Ruy pre-reread. Talk to me about Disfunk showing up to play ball now after being a wallflower for two phases.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

You can go do whatever the **** you want later, but I don't want to be talking to Rajam right now.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

This is weak sauce, like really weak. It's Day 1. People that want to play are posting, regardless of alignment. No one assumes a game will be dead at the top and makes a surgical move to avoid posting.

How do you reconcile this observation with Z's insistence that someone who's posting has to be scum because scum wants someone who is active within town's decision-making.

Mmm...it doesn't reconcile at all. I'll concede the point is weak, I just thought it worth pointing out. I'm far from the point of drawing conclusions as it is.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Mmm...it doesn't reconcile at all. I'll concede the point is weak, I just thought it worth pointing out. I'm far from the point of drawing conclusions as it is.

I don't want to get buried in a sea of effort. I wanna know what you think, not what you see.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Aleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeex

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

In fact, get your head out of the reread for now.

Talk to me about the current state of the thread. Talk to me about Nabe's analysis of the wagon on him. Talk to me about your read on Ruy pre-reread. Talk to me about Disfunk showing up to play ball now after being a wallflower for two phases.

You're talking about Nabe complaining about being set up to get lynched in LyLo right? His own play got him set up, I thought it was a hilarious post because he's somehow trying to absolve himself of the blame despite being the biggest question mark in the game.

I don't remember a ton of Ruy. Here's here, I guess? Both his Nabe and Soup pushes feel like they're being made not because they've done things that are scummy but because they're things Ruy the player dislikes (particularly his Soup push). It's something I can see Ruy doing as either alignment but it's not a good look at this stage in the game.

Funko showing up to play is pretty ??? at this point. That slot's gotten a pass from me for far too long. It replaced the hella coasting 3K and continued to coast to a degree but I've never had a strong problem with his content up until this point. It's definitely a character shift and while that's not scummy in a vacuum, it does beg the question of why he's doing it at this stage in the game.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

EBWOP: Where's this ****ing Nabe post, I wanna read it again.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

You're talking about Nabe complaining about being set up to get lynched in LyLo right? His own play got him set up, I thought it was a hilarious post because he's somehow trying to absolve himself of the blame despite being the biggest question mark in the game.

I don't remember a ton of Ruy. Here's here, I guess? Both his Nabe and Soup pushes feel like they're being made not because they've done things that are scummy but because they're things Ruy the player dislikes (particularly his Soup push). It's something I can see Ruy doing as either alignment but it's not a good look at this stage in the game.

Funko showing up to play is pretty ??? at this point. That slot's gotten a pass from me for far too long. It replaced the hella coasting 3K and continued to coast to a degree but I've never had a strong problem with his content up until this point. It's definitely a character shift and while that's not scummy in a vacuum, it does beg the question of why he's doing it at this stage in the game.

First part. That's really lazy. Unless you're just already convinced Nabe is scum, you're brushing the opposite perspective aside completely. If you're already convinced, why did you make that earlier comment. I want you to tell me what happened with that Nabe wagon if Nabe is town or else put your money where your mouth is on your stance.

Ruy has been "here" the entire phase. He's been peddling his ****. He wants a Nabe lynch tomorrow and thinks his Soup push is defensible, both for reasons. You think it's not a good look, do you think he's scum? If he is, who isn't? If you're wrong, what's the play around that slot? Who's left?

You have a strong problem with his content at this point? What is it?

I want a real conversation with you. I don't want to exchange pleasantries right now.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Post in question is Nabe #1397. He makes a followup somewhere later where he rephrases for someone or some ****.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Although there was a brief wagon on me, I think that I was a pretty poor lynch yesterDay. I mean, I might be somewhat biased. But I don't think that my flip would have said a word about the slots voting for me (Ryu, Soup, DFk), except that they could all agree that lynching a skeleton player at deadline was better than the varied meat on offer.

More importantly, the wagon backed off and broke apart inorganically. Soup flopped back to Laundry from me, presumably thinking he could cover that ground. Then he voted Z25 for 'self-preservation'. Then Disfunk unvoted me, supposedly to prevent a tie between me and Soup, which meant I had a single vote from Ryu. So that allowed Ryu to say, "Oops, Nabe can't happen, deadline's on the way," and then vote for Soup. But we don't need majority, and I think that an ongoing Nabe wagon would have found its supporters, especially in Soup who had brought up self-preservation as reasoning. All Soup would have needed was the smallest prompt, IMO.

I think the scumteam chose Soup in that moment as a more effective use of the lynch over me. It seems like both Ryu and Disfunk have me baked in as the lynch in a LyLo situation toMorrow. Ryu started the wagon on me yesterDay, and got off when I think very gentle prodding would have gotten a lynch. I'm a bit more suspicious of Disfunk, because I don't think that Ryu is in great shape being in this pool of nominations. But I wonder if he thinks he is.

Yeh I hella skimmed this at work. I actually end up agreeing with Nabe here a fair bit: he was a poor lynch for the reasons people stated (I have no idea where people got off on the idea of a Nabe lynch being more informational than a Soup lynch). I wish he would have elaborated more on the Funko jump off because I think that's the more interesting one than his point about Ruy's jump off and helped to enable Ruy's exit from that wagon as well.

With that said, what was the Soup wagon? You and I I remember, and I think Ruy had the 4th vote but I don't remember the 3rd.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Ruy and Z25.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

I did a whole post talking about who was where.

You don't need to read the entire game, apparently. You need to play this day phase first.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

I REALLY REALLY REALLY want your analysis of Ruy/Nabe this phase.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

First part. That's really lazy. Unless you're just already convinced Nabe is scum, you're brushing the opposite perspective aside completely. If you're already convinced, why did you make that earlier comment. I want you to tell me what happened with that Nabe wagon if Nabe is town or else put your money where your mouth is on your stance.

It's hard for me to envision the scumteam without Nabe at the moment, purely due to PoE. If he's town I think I have to be wrong about two of you, Joey, Funko, and Kantrip.

Ruy has been "here" the entire phase. He's been peddling his ****. He wants a Nabe lynch tomorrow and thinks his Soup push is defensible, both for reasons. You think it's not a good look, do you think he's scum? If he is, who isn't? If you're wrong, what's the play around that slot? Who's left?

You have a strong problem with his content at this point? What is it?

I want a real conversation with you. I don't want to exchange pleasantries right now.

I skimmed most of it at work, assuming I'd reread. I know you want a real conversation but I don't have strong thoughts on anything at the moment as Soup's flip has left me extremely uncertain of everything.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Ruy and Z25.

That's odd for Funko. Why jump off to prevent a tie but then not be part of the contributing lynch? Hell, both odd day lynches ended without someone getting hammered, which is also pretty ??? too.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

It's hard for me to envision the scumteam without Nabe at the moment, purely due to PoE. If he's town I think I have to be wrong about two of you, Joey, Funko, and Kantrip.

I skimmed most of it at work, assuming I'd reread. I know you want a real conversation but I don't have strong thoughts on anything at the moment as Soup's flip has left me extremely uncertain of everything.

No, no, no, no, no.

I need strong thoughts. I need your analysis of those slots. I don't need your analysis to be foolproof. I need to know where it is. Assume you can be wrong. Assume I can be scum. I don't give a ****. I'm doing my re-eval right now. I need you to work through it with me and I have a couple of things that are big factors in this read.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

No, no, no, no, no.

I need strong thoughts. I need your analysis of those slots. I don't need your analysis to be foolproof. I need to know where it is. Assume you can be wrong. Assume I can be scum. I don't give a ****. I'm doing my re-eval right now. I need you to work through it with me and I have a couple of things that are big factors in this read.

You're asking something I don't have much of at the moment but let me do my best anyway. Let me reread this phase at least, okay? It's only two pages.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

I wish he would have elaborated more on the Funko jump off because I think that's the more interesting one than his point about Ruy's jump off and helped to enable Ruy's exit from that wagon as well.

https://smashboards.com/threads/etr...atum-a-slippery-slope-to.463364/post-22737981

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

#HBC | Red Ryu

Why'd you vote Soup at the end of the day yesterday and give him an opportunity to quick lynch himself? He didn't take the opportunity but you provided him with one.

I don't like that Funko's concern is Ruy setting up Soup to quicklynch himself. Maybe he's trying to use this as an angle to try to push Ruy but it's a poor way to frame it because there's nothing inherently scummy about voting a guy to L-1 with a few hours before deadline. If Soup quicklynched himself, that's not Ruy's fault, that's Soup's for throwing the game for his alignment. You should be concerned if someone else had quicklynched but nobody even had the balls to hammer. This push is questionable at best.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

My thoughts vary drastically depending on what agendas Ryu/Z push if I'm being honest.

Disregarding the pool choice today, I REALLY don't like how Z was willing to make a full on case on Pokechu at the end of the day and then back off of it completely. I wouldn't be shocked if he pulls the same thing for Soup at this point since when we talked, he wanted this lynch more for information than to actually lynch scum (and the comment about Laundry lines up with this logic). This also is VERY bad for town to think considering that if we mislynch in this nomination, we're going to be in lylo.

If I ignored mechanics, my vote would be on Z 100%.

What do you make of the fact that he's been ****ing everywhere? I think he's scumread every slot in the game. I still think he scumreads a majority of them.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

It strengthens my read on laundry. I really trust and agree with soups last posts on how he was essentially targeted by laundry with no real reason. Laundry’s post look pretty bad if we look at his posts now.

He really doesn’t look good imo. Ryker is also kind of sketchy based on his outbursts yesterday but I think he’s got a decent townie flip hands now.

Unless he was big brain thinking and thought his outburst would make him seem town because he would know soup would flip town after that outburst and thus his outburst would seem town and make him look frustrated at what he thought was scum.

But I really find that unlikely. It makes more sense with this setup and pool that Ryker would likely be a town flip but who knows.

Outside of that I’m still reviewing the voices of others on soup to see if anything seems off looking back.

But I think soups flip was a pretty helpful one. Did I want to lynch someone i thought was town? No but most people ended the discussion and left until after deadline that thought wasn’t going anywhere and anyone else would be a crack shot and wouldn’t be as useful to us if a mislynch.

"I think Laundry's scum and Soup's flip strengthens my read on him but hey let's not discuss the fact that I voted him too and put him at L-2."