Enter into the ∙∙∙{ Mind }∙∙∙ of a Pro - A guide on the psychological aspects behind every pro mind

[KeepSpeedN]

Hello everyone. I just wanted you all to know that this is actually SmashMac posting this, but it is my brother's work. This is my brother KeepSpeedN's (Benito a.k.a. Benny's) guide that he wrote that he has been working on for about 7 - 8 months now but he has not had the time to put it up. This is a guide that he has made to help gamers, both amateurs and pros, understand what really goes on in the mind of professional gamers. For those of you that do not know KeepSpeedN, he is the youngest out of the "Hat Bros" trio, consisting of me, DaShizWiz, and himself. In 2008, when my brothers and I were very active in SSBM, KeepSpeedN was considered one of the best Fox players in America, and one of the best Sheik players in the world, as well as a very respectable, skilled, and highly intelligent doubles player. He was and is still known for having a very unconventional but extremely effective style of play. He is and still remains one of, if not the, smartest player I've ever known. He is currently 21 years old and is attending trade school to become a media producer. Without further a due, let's begin.

From the guide creator KeepSpeedN himself:
For over 10 plus years, SSBM has been at constant growth. More and more people have got interested in playing to win. It is all good to see one another, but winning is the goal. To win you have to come up with a strategy, but how can you come up with a strategy when you just got started? Maybe you have been playing for 5 years and have not won a single time… whatever the occasion is, an effective strategy wins all the time. If you ask a lot of the pro players how they play, they would tell you they play with strategy, the enemy always has a plan, even in life.

After 1000’s of hours playing SSBM, 100hs of hours of research, and 100’s of interviews that I have watched, seen in person, or even took notes from, this is what I have come up with:

Enter the Mind of a Pro

For a few who know me, I am KeepSpeedN. Brother of SmashMac, and DashizWiz, I no longer play SSBM for tournament reasons like winning. If you see me at a tournament it is for observation and research or I am probably there to have a good time lol.

My Intentions behind this all:

I just want everyone to play the game better and more diligently and to understand the psychology behind SSBM. I believe it is very important for everyone to have a concrete understanding of how melee operates and how diverse the game truly is. In a nutshell, the game is about strategic manipulation against a foe. I believe you need a necessary shift in your perspective or outlook on the game. I believe you need a bigger glare into your awareness by polishing up your weaknesses. I believe there is no scale from least to best, but I do believe there is a scale ranging from the most prepared to the least equipped.

I have been to such tournaments as.

Pound

MLG

FC

Insomnia

Smash Aid

On and on

This is not about me though, this is about you. I am just mentioning my biography as a gamer so you can get a feel of my validity. I’m not the best, I am no writer, but I have paid my dues with this game and just want to share my obtained knowledge and understandings of SSBM in depth with newcomers and seasoned veterans alike.


Note: This guide will be constantly worked on and improved, mostly regarding grammar and punctuation but perhaps making it easier to read through color coding and formatting.

...Enter into the ∙∙∙{ Mind }∙∙∙ of a Pro - A guide on the psychological aspects behind every pro mind...
Version 1: This guide is not finished and will be constantly worked on in the future.
Written By: KeepSpeedN (Benny)
Edited by: KeepSpeedN/SmashMac​

Disclaimer: This guide is by no means an easy read. Be prepared to read some things twice or even three times. I promise you though that through patience and diligence this guide will be much more a positive influence on you as not only an aspiring or current professional gamer but also a person.​

Part 1 of 2 - See the Invisible Field: The Everyday Strategy

Food for Thought: You must Learn to use the combos and attacks that are predictable yet misleading, obvious yet unsure, and etc. By understanding each character, their range of distance, and their character move sets, or range of attacks and combos, you can understand the invisible field.

Visual

Interpreting/Meaning: Super Smash Brothers Melee is a game based off of non-verbal signs to identify what will happen next. In the game of Melee, you must realize when to step-in and step-out of a person’s bubble. Step-in a person’s bubble too often and you will get led into a trap(Ex: Getting Grabbed and thrown off the stage). Stay out of the bubble for a moment too long, and the feeling of timidity becomes noticed thus leading to more stage control in favor of your opponent, which will eventually lead to your defeat.(Ex: Imagine Your Yoshi, and your enemy is a Fox player. The stage so happens to go Final Destination... If you just sit at one end of the stage and camp, Fox most likely will spam you with lasers until you decide to go after him)


Part 2 of 2 - Attack with proper Spacing & Timing
Application of Visual:
The Correct Way & The Incorrect Way:
(Note: This video shows you the correct way of attacking someones bubble or space, and the incorrect way of attacking someones bubble.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxO1exRWjB8&feature=youtu.be








Part 3 - Show an Unnoticeable Blend of Yin and Yang – The CunningKitsune Strategy

Food for Thought: By legitimately controlling the tempo of the game by unnoticeable Agro-Control strategies, the opponent cannot adapt to your style. It's always good to go in the moment of the feeling and fight aggressively, but it's also best to think and fight rather Controlled at times as well.

The agro-control style is a balanced blend of the two styles of aggression and control. -CunningKitsune

Visual:

Watch this Video

The Cunning Killer

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQSrxPYft7o

You don't have to watch all of it, maybe a few minutes or so

When some are seen advancing and some retreating, it is a lure. - Sun Tzu

Interpreting/Meaning: As we watch the Video we see the Fox doing some smart things while being aggressive. He just doesn't jump out there head on and starts wrecking you. During the battle against the Marth from 1:24-1:35, he jumped on the ledge 4 times, Marth Tried to use the move counter because he thought that the fox was going to come up with an attack. The Fox did the complete opposite, he came up without an attack, and once Marth's Counterattack move was over, he up-smashed. Also Against the Sheik at Around 2:20, Since Fox was the one originally loosing the match he was baiting sheik at the edge, The Sheik fell into the trap, which resulted in Fox getting in some clean wave-shine techniques!
(That's why its important to have your technical abilities at it's best, so you can use them at the best times)




Part 4 - Master implementation – The Compelling Mew2king Strategy

Food for thought: Nothing is worse than losing a fight you could have won. In the end it is who's most prepared that wins. Practice implementing all different types of combos against your opponents at different percentages so you can get a feel of what combos do work/ don't work and when to do them

Mew2King knows that most players tend to apply less pressure when they’re in high percent of damage (give out free stage control, stop doing their usual strategies, play too scared/defensive) so he takes advantage of this by taking control of the stage and applying more pressure than usual to overcome an opponent who isn’t ready to take it. - CT zero

Visual
Watch this Match:
Zenith 2012 - The King of Mew2 (M2K's combo)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEXN-jIKlDQ

Interpret/Meaning: Now as we watch the video on YouTube of Mew2King and Dr.Peepee on Pokémon stadium, notice the roll that took place in Dr.Peepee’s 2nd stock at high percentage. This roll was no accident for the decision was made subconsciously for illusion recovery, for he felt that was the smartest move to do in that moment. After Mew2King read Dr.Peepee’s upcoming set of moves, M2k was able to get in a lot of other hits. Do not let the pressure of your opponent(s) change the decisions you would normally do without it. Pressure, Timing, Preparation, Percentage, Priority, are all related like brothers and sisters of a family tree. If you are being outpaced, this means the timing of the opponent is to overwhelming , thus meaning the pressure from unpredictability creeps in. As a result, this will allow increase in percentage and death in the battle unexpectedly due to lack of preparation.


Why is technical skill important? It's pretty simple. If you want to do something, but always screw up and kill yourself (or let the opponent do it for you), then you're in trouble, and won't be winning many matches. Also, without technical skill, sometimes you can't exploit openings that might win you match.-Wobbles…

Nothing is worse than being able mentally to defeat your opponent, but physically being incapable of putting your thoughts to work. Make sure to stay calm and control the timing and distance of the match at all times. Timing plays a very big role in implementation due to the fact something can be done correctly or incorrectly. If someone is smart but is sloppy with the hands, he is a failed project. He knows what to do, but the speed from his brain to his fingers is too slow. You need to build up that muscle memory guys, I can't begin explain how important it is to be naturally easy with the hands...Just to think stupid crap like this can make you loose tournament matches.

Part 5 - Learn the Stage Please


Food for thought: It’s pretty annoying to be in an intense match with someone, and loose because you didn’t know the stage. Be safe, not sorry… Take the time out and learn the stage please…

Visual:
Watch this match
EVOEast2k7 Pc Chris (fox) vs. M2k (Marth)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWnYdrXT0JI

Fast forward to the end around 2:50 if you’re not trying to see the whole video

Interpretating/Meaning: Yoshi’s story is definitely a different kind of stage for Fox, against Marth. Fox did great for such a weird stage against Marth, but the level overall was in the Marth’s favor. It’s a small level; he can attack through the platforms with up tilts, he can grab you, Marth can throw you off the stage and get a clean edge guard on you, and the list goes on. Point and case of what I’m bringing to the table is to observe the stage before you play on them…Such a silly thing happened to the Fox due to the stage. Fox got hit by Marth by an up tilt, rolled back on the platform, got hit by another up tilt because he was on the platform, then got spiked! Don’t be a newbie, take the time to analyze and see all aspects of melee that can be manipulated into your favor. By knowing the stages, Improving muscle memory by fighting people with combo’s, and by properly implementing your moves at the right times; you could be on your way to being a pro fighter in no time! This was a very important match at a highly known tournament in 2007 between two highly skilled players. Like I said, don’t be a newbie; take the time to learn the pros/cons of the stage for your character if you truly want to master the ins and outs of being a pro.

Methodology: The way how you do this is you set the stages the same way you would set them for the tournament. Go to the stage, and actually just watch the stage itself. If you analyze Yoshi’s story during the battle…the cloud comes out, If you go to Pokemon Stadium, the level changes from time to time, and etc.


Part 6 - Condition Their Minds (in current production) ...

Food for thought: The best way to beat someone in Melee is to make someone think they are catching on to your playing style, then subtlety switching it up without them even noticing. In this section we will learn how to make the mind accustomed to repetition. And then with the proper timing, throw in a seamless twist to our playing style.

UCS: unconditional (unlearned) stimulus

Ex: food has been put in front of a dog, the food is something desired without learning.

UCR: unconditional response

Ex: the dog got hungry when he saw the food so it's natural that he got hungry without learning to be hungry for food.

CS: conditional (learned) stimulus

Ex. hitting on the door three times before giving the food to the dog, the dog will realize that hitting on the door three times is associated with food.

CR: conditional response.

Ex. every time the dog hears the knocking on door three times, he gets hungry. As he expects that door knocking represents food. –UCS Definitions

Visual:


Part 7 - Cover their Options (in current production) ...

Food for thought: By covering their options or choices, that highers your chances of winning. Most skilled pro's consciously know how to do this with ease against opponents. In this passage, we are going to review a video so we can gain a clearer understanding of how to cover options.

Me:
What is your perception behind SSBM? What does it take to be a pro? And how to achieve it...thank you.

7:51am

Jason Zimmerman

Play a lot.

And my mindset is when I get a grab/hit, I try to do the best option. Follow to death with a 0-death combo or a 0-death chain grab or 0-death gimp, of some sort. That way I'm getting the "most out of my attack"

Also, cover their options

Always expect illusion recovery most of the time, and then try to guess where they will aim their up B. Try to cover all options. If you can't, cover most of them.

bbl.
}

Visual:

 

[KeepSpeedN]

Reserved for later.

 

[KeepSpeedN]

Works Cited:

DA MINDGRAINES!!! BY GREG

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=54186

TIER LIST:

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=294748

CunningKitsune's Complete Guide to Fox McCloud, Version 5.00 - 2009 Update Complete

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=35050

There is a method to the madness-Dashizwiz

How to Read Your Opponents like a Book- CT zero

http://clashtournaments.com/?p=390

Sheik tips (updated)By: Mew2King

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=23851&highlight=Mew2king

Quotations book:

http://quotationsbook.com/quote/10235/

The Art of War

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/538514/posts

Newtons 3rd Law of Motion

http://www.physicsclassroom.com/class/newtlaws/u2l4a.cfm

Taj- Mew2 Philosophy

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=279010

Official FAQ and QNA thread by: Dtj Jungle

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=230020

The Official Everything Thread

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=97603

UCS DEFINTIONS:

http://quizlet.com/dictionary/(ucs)

Videos I Analyzed:

Combo Vid Compilation (286 Videos)

http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=138409

Pound V Melee: Dr PeePee (Falco) and LOZR (Fox) Vs Overtriforce (Sheik) and Strawhat Dahean

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRJ7ZB892mE&feature=relmfu

Apex 2012 - Melee Singles: Javi (Fox) vs. Dr. Peepee (Falco) LB8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FmBrY3MA9M

Zenith 2012 - Dr. PeePee vs PC Chris

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUvPe1j0NIU&feature=fvwrel

Chu Dat (IC) vs CunningKitsune(Fox) 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8R2BJt5baU0&feature=related

 

[-ShadowPhoenix-]

Haven't read the entire thing yet, but looks amazing so far

 

[PB&J]

Im going to read this later,looks good though

 

[Alexo30]

*thumbs up* Interesting and helpful.

 

[Bones0]

I'm going to be perfectly honest, I think this guide is pretty awful.

The writing itself is super unclear. There is a lot of talk about energy and emotions, but it doesn't accomplish much in helping to understand the psychology of a professional. It's very reminiscent of the BS people shove you when their profession is based on supernatural **** like ghosts, spirits, mindreading, etc. When there is actually a discernible point, it seems almost entirely irrelevant to the game of Melee and the psychology good players utilize. There are loads of generalizations being made both about the reader and the opponents the reader may face, such as how players feel at high %. Sure, many players will be afraid and timid, but if the player knows what he's doing and is confident in the situation, it's not uncommon for high percentage opponents to become very aggressive and dangerous. I was starting to think the whole post might even be a troll when I got to Newton's Third Law of Physics... How does that apply to the underlying psychology of Melee at all? I'm sure some metaphor as obscure as the rest of the guide can be made up to make it seem like it fits, but you can take any vague quote and give a Melee example that applies to it.

Idk, maybe I'm just missing the point of TEH FEELZ and how they apply to Melee, but I was pretty disappointed to click on a guide that is supposed to be about psychology only to get a bunch of abstract concepts roughly applied to the entirety of Melee. I would have loved to read about in depth conditioning, identifying and abusing habits, or even maintaining a good mentality/attitude for performance. Instead, I read an essay that is a glorified way of saying "don't be predictable".

 

[Deleted member]

Idk, maybe I'm just missing the point of TEH FEELZ and how they apply to Melee, but I was pretty disappointed to click on a guide that is supposed to be about psychology only to get a bunch of abstract concepts roughly applied to the entirety of Melee.

 

[Nazo]

TL;DR:
Don't get hit.

 

[SpiderMad]

I appreciate this guide but I don't see who it's to appeal to. Someone able to understand your complex phrases has probably read The Art of War already, and just had it reread back to them with not much to gain from it.

 

[KeepSpeedN]

Thank you all for your comments, For there all very needed; Like I said this is just the rough draft. When I'm done i'm going to go back in and rewrite everything so its much more understandable to the public eye...I need everyone to show friends and comment exactly how you feel about it. So we all can make this guide much better for SSBM

 

[shadrach kabango]

it's far from awful. a lot of valuable stuff in there.

still haven't found anyone who can explain the game better than mango, however:

mango training is 3 things:

predict
react
punish

the only thing i'd add to that is no. 4: space (ing).

honestly that's all there is.

 

[Archangel]

This guide is good. I think the title might have thrown people because it's more about the art of fighting and less about psychology. Not that it doesn't have psychologically telling things involved in it. Just that the focus is on how people should be thinking and not so much what they are thinking.

I loved the guide personally. Even though I've already read The Art of war, the 36 stratagems, and every freaking book by miyamoto(I have dual swords in my home btw).

 

[Divinokage]

This guide is good. I think the title might have thrown people because it's more about the art of fighting and less about psychology. Not that it doesn't have psychologically telling things involved in it. Just that the focus is on how people should be thinking and not so much what they are thinking.

I loved the guide personally. Even though I've already read The Art of war, the 36 stratagems, and every freaking book by miyamoto(I have dual swords in my home btw).

I feel like the Art of War applies to teams A LOT more than in singles because it offers very good strategies with what you can do with your partner to defeat your enemies. =P It's like being 2 heroes vs 2 villains.. or perhaps like being a commander with your soldiers and placing them in a way where you can gain the advantage such as flanking.

 

[MechWarriorNY]

I read through/understood all of that.
For those who can't or won't do as I did, here's a massively undercut tl;dr:
Playing Smash to win consistently = gotta be pro at psychological/mental warfare as well as being good with tech skill/inspire lasting fear while superbopping fools in melee.
And then there's the whole shebang with being composed under pressure...

 

[MookieRah]

I didn't read all of it (the first three parts) but from what I read it doesn't seem very helpful. I honestly felt that the guide was more hurtful. There is a ton of text talking about a lot of ambiguous psychological stuff, but very little substance. Stage control was mentioned one time, and that was in something that had very little to do with stage control. I consider that to be way more of an important factor that pro's think about than much of what is being discussed in this guide.

There are only so many things that a person can focus on in a match at a given time. This guide is presenting a whole bunch of seemingly non-related things that would confuse most players and allows for a lot of room for misinterpretation. Honestly, people should stop worrying about trying to decode "teh mingames" and spend more time focussing on their fundamentals anyways.

 

[Bones0]

LOL Reading it felt more like this:

Also, 100x what Mookie said.

 

[Deleted member]

this guide is too deep for my small infertile mind.

 

[Annex]

This is a lot of simple, common sense concepts explained extremely poorly.
1: Have good spacing
2: Be unpredictable
3: Never give up
4: Learn the stage
5: Bait
6: Combo, predict, and cover options

 

[Deleted member]

predictability doesn't matter, baiting and mindgames are bad strategies.

 

[Rocketpowerchill]

props for the effort put into this, speedn was such a cool player to watch, maybe he'll comeback?

wasnt sure if this guide was for people just picking up the game / people who havent paid their dues or for everyone else lol

once you pick your main tho im pretty sure you can just learn their:
-bread an butter neutral game options
-obviously tech skill is good but dont strive to be physically able to do options that are equally rewarding as stuff thats easier to perform lol

to get better you have to play hella so you can:
-learn how to observe your opponent
-being able to explain why you got hit, and why you get hits

thats how you get better i think its all fundamentals, m2k and the top5 are just more optimized than the rest so thats why theres a dbz gap and noone else touches them lol

 

[Sinji]

This guide deserves first class honors. This exactly what the players mind sets should be when going to a tournament

 

[Corona]

This was a really great read. By all means, you can completely disregard this thought if you would like to, but if you are using the classical conditioning model of learning, why not add the Behavioral Model (ex. reinforcement, punishment, antecedent manipulation, chaining) as well? It has been proven to be much more permanent that Classical, and it is just as easy to implement. I use this approach in my training, and as a counselor with a Bachelors in Psychology, I can vouch for it.

 

[Archangel]

I feel like the Art of War applies to teams A LOT more than in singles because it offers very good strategies with what you can do with your partner to defeat your enemies. =P It's like being 2 heroes vs 2 villains.. or perhaps like being a commander with your soldiers and placing them in a way where you can gain the advantage such as flanking.

this is very true, especially when it comes to being flanked. I'm not new to this game but I am new to teams and I've learned that it's not even the same game as melee singles.

Playing teams is like like war, except all of the battles of are fought over the course of a set with many battles being won or lost per match.


As for those who aren't getting anything out of this post. I'd say it's because their is no foundation for this kind of knowledge in your head. I'm not saying you are an idiot it's just...like trying to explain Algebra to someone who hasn't mastered Multiplying.

 

[Ilove]

Aight so you didn't really write that much about predicting but that's like the most significant difference between top players and decent players. Idk if you planned on implementing more **** on it later but ima give you a little bit of my insight
So that post by zero on how to read is aight, but he doesn't actually understand the concept that well so he missed out on a lot. Basically, to read effectively, you have to know the underlying factors that motivate decisions in game. We can use our empathy to "feel" out our opponents to determine what kind of decision was made and we should use conscious observations to manipulate our interpretation of our opponent in response to this, through our empathy system, to optimally figure out someone. Here's some examples of underlying factors behind decisions; bear in mind the mental level of the opponent should be examined initially to get a really fast first idea of what kind of decisions will be made, then the examination should be manipulated to apply more directly to every situation that occurs (mental levels are specific to situations but have a general trend):
1. Directly impulsive decisions; generally based on spacing in relevance to the stage, the opponent, and percentage. These are what most people define as "habits", but pretty much all impulsive decisions are habitual until identified/fixed.
2. Impulsive mix up decisions; this generally forms from being punished in a situation in the past (not necessarily in the current match). These impulses generally alternate between a limited number of options in a situation, but will almost always motivate "something" to be done
There're more types of impulsive decisions, but these next ones stray away from initial impulses significantly enough to the point where you have to start "reading" yourself to read your opponent. This **** kinda applies to your #5 thing
3. Reads of reads; if you correctly identify an opponent's reading level in a situation and it's high enough to the point where they're expecting something or waiting to react to something impulsive rather than acting completely impulsively themselves, identify the impulse they're waiting for within yourself (best way to break habits; identify situations where an opponent is punishing you for an impulse and turn it against them) or create the illusion that you're going to do something that seems impulsive. You can then punish with something that's counter-intuitive to what you originally implied you were gonna do. You can create uncertainty that this is what you're doing within an opponent by occasionally doing the impulsive decision (mixing up mental levels in situations is important against good players), or what's sometimes even more effective is doing the impulsive decision in a very slightly different way that won't get punished by whatever they're trying to punish you with. The latter creates an illusion within your opponent that's often frustrating, and can lead to your opponent being more predictable/less adaptable
4. The reads of reads of reads to infinity; if you're opponent identifies that you're capable of doing the above, he/she may read your read of your original impulse (or your bait) in the situation at hand and try to counter that. This idea is the end idea of reading, as it can go on infinitely (reads of reads of reads of reads...). So pretty much to win at this game, though this level of mental play isn't often seen except in super obvious situations, one must know exactly the mental level of the opponent in the situation and go one step above.

These are the basic ideas for most of the decisions in smash; to effectively punish for reads of these impulses one must learn the options the opponent uses that fill in the decisions.

Pretty much all the **** that dumb players do is impulsive, so the idea of conditioning with #5 wouldn't necessarily help as much as just identifying the impulses they do and punishing them over and over

If you know how to convert your opponent's decisions to an understanding through your empathy system, you can easily have an accurate feel of most people's mental levels in every individual situation.

Most top players subconsciously understand these ideas but don't necessarily convert them to words

If you don't know what an opponent is going to do in a situation, just walk up to them and do something that could make them feel pressured into doing something without over committing. This is a safe option that allows identification of what kind of decisions are made in situations and what options are used, and be prepared to punish if their option is react-able. Be aware that the intent of this may be obvious, so be prepared to either disguise it or act in response to the fact that the opponent may identify the situation to greater extents in the future.

 

[shadrach kabango]

as far as constructive criticism goes:

good first draft.

cut out a lot of the authoritative "who i am and why you should listen to me" stuff. i'm not saying remove all of it; a brief introduction and succinct list of notable accomplishments is fine. but that should be 3-4 sentences max imo.

succinct, succinct, succinct. that's the key. this is ADD society, son. and there is a ton of competition for our attention, not only in general but also as far as specific "how to be pro at melee" guides go.

make every word count. clearly and succinctly delineate main subjects ---> supporting evidence ---> conclusion. keep it moving.

because being succinct is so important, you can't try to be everything for everybody. at least 50% will be fairly redundant to anyone familiar with competitive melee; 25% will be your own personal style that is hopefully magnetizing; and 25% is your chance to introduce something new that other guides have not done (or have not done as well).

to that end i think your examples are the best bet for that.

 

[ZaXXoR]

this is awesome

 

[GCS Gaming Customs]

Take the basic concepts you think of while playing another player, and break em down. I do think that a guide like this requires visuals, but not only tournament matches representing a point; try breaking it down, sorta like a stream (or just do a stream lol) I found this to be very helpful when watching mangos analysis videos

 

[MookieRah]

I actually don't think prediction is something that separates good from great players. I personally think it's more about self awareness and stage control, as being aware of your own character and how it relates to the stage will limit the options of your opponent so that you are not required to predict, but merely react. The more situations that you can create in which your opponent has limited options, the less it is necessary to predict. I honestly think there was far too much emphasis on prediction in the early days of smash, in which "mindgames" were considered the hallmark of professional play. At the time, playing in such a manner was something that was mesmerising, as the players that understood what was going on would crush those who didn't.

That is not how the game is played today, and taking unnecessary risks with hard reads will cost you. For every amazing play you pull off, you will undoubtably miss as many times (realistically you will be successful less than you will miss a read). Often this puts you in a far worse situation than the payoff would have been if you had guessed correctly. Prediction is fine, as long as you do not go all in on only one option. Knowing what the most likely course of action is what will help you distill all of the chaos around you into a manageable amount of data for you to process.

 

[shadrach kabango]

I actually don't think prediction is something that separates good from great players.

totally disagree. why? because spacing incorporates prediction

furthermore, there are some things you cannot react to, because it's simply not within human capability. not with any sort of consistency, anyway.

in those cases imo you must prime your brain beforehand. once primed you will be able to react, but priming is a form of predicting.

 

[MookieRah]

totally disagree. why? because spacing incorporates prediction

Not really. I can see where you are going with this, but predicting something that will happen within the time it takes for most moves to land is not really the same thing I am discussing. If you follow the logic you are using for that then almost everything falls under prediction.

Prediction, as it's being used in this thread, refers mostly to reads (usually hard reads). It's basically referring to a player vs player style, one which adapts to your current opponent and attempts to manipulate them through means of baits, conditioning, and all kinds of mental tricks.

Reaction is more of a player vs character strategy. It's based on knowledge of what you can do and what your opponent can do in that given matchup. It's about abusing everything your character can do that gives you an advantage over your opponent's character. This kind of style does not rely on getting to know your opponent as much, as the strategies and techniques you employ would work regardless of their skill level or awareness of your strategy.

furthermore, there are some things you cannot react to, because it's simply not within human capability. not with any sort of consistency, anyway.

I'm not saying that one can react to anything, I'm simply saying that reaction > prediction. Reaction, in a lot of cases, is also not as hard as people make it out to be. It just requires patience and practice. It is generally safer as well.

in those cases imo you must prime your brain beforehand. once primed you will be able to react, but priming is a form of predicting.

Also, this is not really prediction either for the same reason as the previous. I say that because you and your opponents positions will determine what options you and your opponent have. Being aware of how to place yourself so that you have more or better options than your opponent is not something that requires prediction, but rather knowledge of the game. With experience, one can usually deduce what your opponent will do based off of their available options and be prepared for them. This isn't the same as trying to guess what your opponent is trying to do based on past experiences, as this is something that one can do from a pure player vs character perspective.

 

[shadrach kabango]

Prediction, as it's being used in this thread, refers mostly to reads (usually hard reads).

next time quote the things/people you're replying to

 

[Deleted member]

^ lmao i hope you keep playing forever so i can watch your bitter tears of frustration when you suck

 

[MookieRah]

next time quote the things/people you're replying to

My bad, I'm just old school is all. I just figured out how to use that reply feature xD.

 

[Ilove]

Reaction is more of a player vs character strategy. It's based on knowledge of what you can do and what your opponent can do in that given matchup. It's about abusing everything your character can do that gives you an advantage over your opponent's character. This kind of style does not rely on getting to know your opponent as much, as the strategies and techniques you employ would work regardless of their skill level or awareness of your strategy....

It requires an equal amount of getting to know your opponent; if you're sitting there waiting at a certain spacing waiting to react and your opponent READS what you're doing, they can figure out what you're gonna do based on their perception of what you're reaction is gonna be (which will be extremely easy to read if you really take away the idea of prediction from your play) and use it bait a certain response using specific spacings or moves or whatever and punish. You can limit their options with spacing and make them more motivated to do certain things, but there's virtually never a situation where you can just sit there at a certain spacing and completely react against someone with more than half a brain and win. You have to act preemptively

I'm not saying that one can react to anything, I'm simply saying that reaction > prediction. Reaction, in a lot of cases, is also not as hard as people make it out to be. It just requires patience and practice. It is generally safer as well.

Prediction isn't as hard as people make it out to be and it generally will make you not lose games, unlike purely reactions, which people who use prediction effectively will be able to counter. Reactions should be used when uncertain of situations and should be used to better prepare yourself for what possibilities are available in certain situations, but reading the specific options the opponent chooses in these situations is essential since the idea acting after the option has been chosen (reacting) is easily counterable. You can't be completely prepared preemptively with just reactions; there are too many counter intuitive options within smash.

Also, this is not really prediction either for the same reason as the previous. I say that because you and your opponents positions will determine what options you and your opponent have. Being aware of how to place yourself so that you have more or better options than your opponent is not something that requires prediction, but rather knowledge of the game. With experience, one can usually deduce what your opponent will do based off of their available options and be prepared for them. This isn't the same as trying to guess what your opponent is trying to do based on past experiences, as this is something that one can do from a pure player vs character perspective.

Yes, of course limiting an opponent's options is an important aspect of the game; but only because it provides greater ensurity of which option they're going to choose. There are very few situations that you can derive down to being able to be reasonably and completely covered by reactions.

 

[shadrach kabango]

^ lmao i hope you keep playing forever so i can watch your bitter tears of frustration when you suck

wat? not sure if you're referring to me or mookie (your post was one minute after mine). either way that's out of line. who are you anyway?

 

[KeepSpeedN]

Thanks everyone for your replies! lets all help Melee by giving some good advice/critiques to the guide so i can make those adjustments! Remember...I'm not the only one making the guide, you are 2!... I'm just grabbing bits and pieces from you guys and imputing it into the guide...SO far you guys have gave me tons of great suggestions and I appreciate that to the fullest....If you guys have an idea that is worth listening to...

1.Message me directly
I read my messages guys, message me; and if I like the idea i will take it

P.S.( you'll be given credit as well for your ideas)

2. REPLY on the YOUTUBE Videos.
I will be making videos for the guide from recent SSBM matches, and posting them on to youtube....feel free to leave a comment, it will be read and taken into consideration!

 

[MookieRah]

It requires an equal amount of getting to know your opponent; if you're sitting there waiting at a certain spacing waiting to react and your opponent READS what you're doing, they can figure out what you're gonna do based on their perception of what you're reaction is gonna be (which will be extremely easy to read if you really take away the idea of prediction from your play) and use it bait a certain response using specific spacings or moves or whatever and punish. You can limit their options with spacing and make them more motivated to do certain things, but there's virtually never a situation where you can just sit there at a certain spacing and completely react against someone with more than half a brain and win. You have to act preemptively

It doesn't matter if you are being read or not with a lot of player vs character strategies. If you are on a platform, and I am below you as Marth, I'm pretty sure that you will read that I will either uair or utilt you, but there isn't much you can do with that data because you are put into an incredibly bad position. Likewise, if I upthrow > juggle, most of the time the opponent knows I will attempt to juggle them, but that doesn't make their position any better or my position any worse. In a juggle scenario it's quite severely not in their favor, as their options are not only limited but finite. If you use your second jump and haven't secured safety then you just made things far worse for yourself. If you are playing to maximise every exchange you make while not relying on hard reads, you likely won't land as many big victories at any point of the match, but you will win small battles consistently throughout the match that will result in a win.

Of course you could argue that prediction is more important in neutral, and not when things are not inherently in one's favour. I would say this is slightly true, but one should still avoid hard reads and focus on playing safe.

Prediction isn't as hard as people make it out to be and it generally will make you not lose games, unlike purely reactions, which people who use prediction effectively will be able to counter. Reactions should be used when uncertain of situations and should be used to better prepare yourself for what possibilities are available in certain situations, but reading the specific options the opponent chooses in these situations is essential since the idea acting after the option has been chosen (reacting) is easily counterable. You can't be completely prepared preemptively with just reactions; there are too many counter intuitive options within smash.

Prediction is as hard as it is made out to be, actually. Even people who are amazing at hard reads flub them all the time, and they often hurt as much as they help. Also, how is acting after your opponent counter-able? When you predict, you are being proactive and act first. When you act, you commit to something. If an opponent is capable of reacting to something, it will generally beat out a prediction because your move cannot be undone/changed at that point. In regards to people "baiting", just because you play reactive doesn't mean you just fall for baits all the time. This is where playing very safe and patient comes into play. Baiting is also something that is overhyped, because you are essentially relying on a strategy that depends on your opponent making a mistake, and often times going for a bait puts you out of position or removes options for you in order to perform it.

Yes, of course limiting an opponent's options is an important aspect of the game; but only because it provides greater ensurity of which option they're going to choose. There are very few situations that you can derive down to being able to be reasonably and completely covered by reactions.

Actually, this is also untrue. Go take a peak at Kadano's Marth thread. There are a lot of situations in which are perfectly reasonable to react out of that people aren't really aware of. That's the whole point of eliminating options in the first place, so that your opponent is left with so few real options that it doesn't matter what they pick because it is possible to cover them. This doesn't mean that the reactive player messes up, we are all human, but when you rely on reaction instead of a guessing game, you will find yourself playing much more consistently.

 

[TaFoKiNtS]

I agree with the premise of reads vs reaction of Mookierah, but not to the full extent in terms of game theory. I see players who subscribe to a full reaction game forego a risk for a very minuscule punish of additional percent when a hard read could potentially get a kill. Why is this important?

Let's say you're in a situation in which you could guarantee to add 4-8% damage off of an additional hit.

On the onset, this may seem really good. Who doesn't want the guarantee? What if you forego that punish to allow for them to recover into a list of contained options (A,B,C,D,E). Let's say you go for a hard read in which you cover two of the options for sure (40% success rate).

if you guess correctly, you get a kill. If you don't, you're back in neutral.

There are certain situations in which the risk/reward justifies going for a read rather than a reaction, so I don't like this tunnel vision mindset that people have in saying that "reads are useless".

By playing based on reaction and being "safe", you forego a large array of attacks/moves/options that in the end make you more predictable. Sprinkling in the risky F-smash or hard read makes it less easier for your opponent to cover you as well. I believe this is one of the main catalysts in why Hbox can beat a majority of players simply on the premise that people play too predictably, safe, and try to react, rather than take some risky initiative.

I would even daresay this is why s2j and Lord do better against Fox players moreso than Hax$.

 

[MookieRah]

I agree with the premise of reads vs reaction of Mookierah, but not to the full extent in terms of game theory. I see players who subscribe to a full reaction game forego a risk for a very minuscule punish of additional percent when a hard read could potentially get a kill. Why is this important?

Who says that the safe approach is "minuscule"? Usually the safe option isn't bad at all, and can often lead to a kill as well. Playing safe doesn't mean a complete disregard for risk/reward. Quite the opposite. Playing safe is about maximising risk/reward. The idea that just because something is safe it means you can't get much off of it is just inherently wrong in most cases. Yeah, perhaps I could fthrow a Marth player in Marth dittos and land that fsmash, but I'd rather uthrow > utilt, > juggle, because while I might not get an amazing tipper set up, I know I will likely get a lot of percent and be very safe while doing it. I still might also get a tipper setup, and if I did it would be at an even higher percent than I would have with an fthrow. If I went for the fthrow and my opponent DI'ed appropriately I would have only tacked on 2-4% damage and lost all of my positional advantage.

On the onset, this may seem really good. Who doesn't want the guarantee? What if you forego that punish to allow for them to recover into a list of contained options (A,B,C,D,E). Let's say you go for a hard read in which you cover two of the options for sure (40% success rate). if you guess correctly, you get a kill. If you don't, you're back in neutral.

Very false dichotomy here. Usually hard reads put you out of position. At best if you miss, things revert to neutral, at worst the tables are turned on you. For example: Say your opponent has been doing the same thing with his approaches all match. You theorise correctly that the thing that would beat it would be wavedash back > attack. A hard read would be to wavedash back forward smash, something that would be a deep committal on your part. If this didn't work, then your opponent would likely be in a position to punish you. Conversely, a soft read would be to wavedash back > safe option. In Marth's case (as I am a Marth main if you couldn't tell) would likely be a dtilt. If the dtilt lands you can often convert it into a grab, and if nothing else you can press forwards and take a bit more stage. If this didn't work, you would likely not be punished afterwards seeing as it is safe.

So yeah, a forward smash would have been nice, but you risk opening yourself up for something just as bad or worse. If things go well with the safe option, you can actually convert it into something quite good (like a grab) that actually isn't much worse and in some cases could even be better, all without taking as much of a gamble.

There are certain situations in which the risk/reward justifies going for a read rather than a reaction, so I don't like this tunnel vision mindset that people have in saying that "reads are useless".

I never said reads were bad. I never said prediction was pointless. I said that reaction > prediction. Sometimes I do go for reads. Sometimes I can feel that, at a particular time, that I need to make a push, but this is not something that is common, and is still likely sub-optimal. In general, making several small victories is greater than landing one big one.

By playing based on reaction and being "safe", you forego a large array of attacks/moves/options that in the end make you more predictable. Sprinkling in the risky F-smash or hard read makes it less easier for your opponent to cover you as well. I believe this is one of the main catalysts in why Hbox can beat a majority of players simply on the premise that people play too predictably, safe, and try to react, rather than take some risky initiative.

First, I'm not even going to speculate about why Hbox can beat x-players, but I doubt it's because of your claim. I think Hbox is actually really, really talented despite how much people loathe Jiggs and his playstyle. I actually think Hbox plays very safe and methodical, so I really don't see your point there.

Also, people don't seem to understand the idea that safe /= predictable, or that predictable == bad. Like I have stated before, there are tons of scenarios in which it doesn't matter if you know something is coming or not, you cannot avoid it. The whole point of my mentality, and really the new school Marth mentality, is to create these situations as much as possible. If a strategy is solid enough, it doesn't matter if your opponent is aware of it or not. Honestly people should re-evaluate why they do the things they do and try to seek these setups for their characters as well. Even if you are heavy on predictions, you want to remove the ability for your opponent to save himself. Also, playing safe does not mean to repeat the same thing over and over just because it is "safe". Most characters don't have many pokes, or great approaches anyways, so you KNOW what they will likely do in the first place. That doesn't mean that they won't still land it. Playing safe just removes the bad, over committing options that, in which case if I was wrong, (which in neutral it's BAD to guess wrong) one would be punished hard for it.

It's much easier to win out in neutral against someone who is risky than someone who is safe. If someone is risky then you just have to be patient. Sometimes they might catch you off guard, but more than likely they will give you all the things you need on their own.